Israel's Health Ministry reports that 200 people have died, and 15,398 have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 - an increase of only 100 people between Saturday night and Sunday morning. Currently, there are 132 people in serious condition, among them 100 who are intubated. Some 6,602 have recovered
Restrictions are being moderately loosened, a good fraction is going back to work. Mask-wearing is compulsary in all public places; temperture-taking, and social distancing are mandetory in many cases. Distilled from www..post.com
RE: Comparing Covid-19 deaths to the seasonal flu
COVID-19 killed more Americans in a single 30-day period from March 20 to April 20 (42,000) than the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's estimate of “flu only” deaths for the entire 2018-19 season (34,200).
Noteworthy is that the Covid-19 death count has been restrained by the stay-at-home policies without which it could be significantly higher.
Source link
Just recapping some other statistics. According to the Indiana Dept of Health, a total of 902 Hoosiers died from flu related illness duing the entire time span 2009-2018.
Total for Covid-19 related deaths in Indiana just over the past two months is 813
Remember the "study" that was recently cited here purporting to show that au contrarie to intuitive thinking, it was non-smokers who were at higher risk for contracting the COVID-19 virus? Well, have you seen this "study" reported anywhere else? Has the New York Times had a single article to substantiate that claim? I haven't seen anything of the sort.
Perhaps this "news" or conclusion was produced by the same thoughtful "scientists" who were putting forth the idea that sunlight or disinfectant injections will cure things. Or maybe by people into Magical Thinking or contibutions from the tobacco industry.
Twaddle.
Or maybe, possibly, and I'm starting to think certainly, no-one really knows just how the hell to deal with this "bug," other than the tried-and-true way of dealing with a virus, i.e. relieve the symptoms the best you can and as agressively as you can, cross your fingers, and let the disease run its course.
It seems like every passing day there's a new theory, a new opinion, a new whatever, and no-one wants to say those three little words everyone understands:
"I don't know."
Well, I try to be understanding, they're doing their best, everyone is. That's all we can ask. There's no "magic bullet" here or "instant gratification" application, frustrating to most in this "instant gratification" age we live in.
I believe we all have a certain susceptibility to small sample size too. Not that I'm saying this is bad.
But it happens quite frequently, a baseball player opens the season with two torrid weeks, and everyone is comparing him to Ted Williams, and such.
Hey, I'm going to enjoy a daily cigar regardless. But if I can find consolation in your stated "finding", then so much the better.
I don't consider the New York Times to be "the last word" on medical news. As for studies, most are going to be proved either wrong or useless, as there is still a heck of a lot to be learned about the virus.
Sunlight and disinfectants when properly used will go a long way of reducing transmission of the virus. In the absence of a proven cure, reducing infection rates is the best we can do. The problem is that the models used to "predict" the effects of varying means of reducing the infect rate are more of a curve fitting exercise as opposed to a detailed model of the physical process of transmitting the disease. An example is the original IHME that was a reasonable guess for NY, way underestimated NJ and way overestimated WY. Taking a couple of minutes to compare a typical travel to work routine for a NYC resident and a Wyoming resident would show that a "stay at home" order would have a drastically greater effect in NYC than in Wyoming. Note that Wyoming has few social distancing rules in place and has 1% of the per capita fatality rate of NY state.
Convicted One I believe we all have a certain susceptibility to small sample size too. Not that I'm saying this is bad. But it happens quite frequently, a baseball player opens the season with two torrid weeks, and everyone is comparing him to Ted Williams, and such. Hey, I'm going to enjoy a daily cigar regardless. But if I can find consolation in your stated "finding", then so much the better.
C-O, we were talking about the price of model kits on another thread and commiserated about the heart-stopping prices compared to when we were kids.
In that vein, hey, enjoy your cigars! But have you seen what the good ones cost now? Remember when a "dollar cigar" was something special? Man, are those days gone!
Flintlock76In that vein, hey, enjoy your cigars! But have you seen what the good ones cost now? Remember when a "dollar cigar" was something special? Man, are those days gone!
While I was living in Los Angeles I had several co-workers who were immigrants. They frequently would go back down to Mexico just to visit family, and such.
Even in the 1990s it's incredible how much more cheaply they could buy cigars for me down there, than I could get them for up here.
And, Mexico had no embargo with Cuba
Erik_MagThe problem is that the models used to "predict" the effects of varying means of reducing the infect rate are more of a curve fitting exercise as opposed to a detailed model of the physical process of transmitting the disease.
It's probably worse than that. The presentation I was given last week involved calculating the 'curves' with three (nominally) coupled differential equations. Nowhere was there a discussion of exactly how the coefficients in these were chosen... or what they represented. Assuredly however they were incapable of representing complex factors that might change as the situation evolves away from initial conditions ... let alone whether precise equations for any given part of outbreak propagation propensity would be governed as an 'average' is.
I think it is easily possible to work up a mathematical model that would 'better' show how the risk to prospective ARDS patients changes with increasing percentage of 'recovery to effective viral nontransmission' in the overall (presumably interacting) public. If it turns out that tens or hundreds of millions have silently gotten to that point in recovery -- gee, that's nice, but it doesn't predict all that much that propagation in what's left of the susceptible population will be proportional, or less dramatic, or less lethal. It's certainly not robust enough without proof to base fair policy on.
Now I confess I'm waiting to see the idea of intentionally spreading some weakened virus to large numbers of people who prove somehow to be at low risk of ARDS, precisely to get the numbers down. Original 'variolation' would have done something like this -- and nontransmissibly too; some of those savage anti-Gates detractors are accusing him of doing this with the Indian girls wholesale. Can it be long before we're exhorted to get sick to save the economy...?
Well I'm pretty sure the USA will blow thru that 60,000 fatalities number, you're at 55,000 now. The 100,000 number seems more realistic for a total.
2,500 deaths in Canada now . Still climbing.
100,000 may be on the high side, but unfortunately more realistic than 60,000. Main cause of the overage is the numbers for NY, NJ and Mi.
IHME predictions for totals in mid summer from early April, were that NY would be 16,090, NJ would be 2,129 and Michigan 3,235 which all have been exceeded at this time. Predictions for mid summer for other states were: Texas 6,128 (648 now), California 5,161 (1,703 now), Utah 586 (41 now), Montana 270 (14 now) and Wyoming 142 (7 now). What struck me was seeing that Texas was predicted to have a higher fatality number than California, presumably to the bias for tighter social restrictions in Calif. Later versions of the predictions were showing a much higher fatality number for Wyoming than Montana despite the 2X pop of MT over WY. The biggest cluster of cases for ID, MT and WY are associated with ski areas.
Erik_MagI don't consider the New York Times to be "the last word" on medical news.
Nor do I. But it's the next best thing. By the way: are there any other readers here of its excellent Science section on Tuesdays?
The NYT may not be "the last word" on medical news (what would be?), but for me, at least, it's pretty much the last word on "news."
After all, who's considered better?
NKP guy After all, who's considered better?
Wall Street Journal.
For science coverage, I prefer more focused publications such as Science News or science blog sites, paying more attention to sites where the author is aware of what his/her field of expertise is in and is not in. Equally important is knowing the limits of my own expertise.
Another big help is knowing how to read between the lines - I knew something was screwy with the recommendation to NOT wear masks and knowing that there were reports of asymptomatic people were infectious.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
BaltACD
He's at his craziest when he plays the invisble accordion. Or is it a concertina?
Donald's got a squeezbox
No one's gonna sleep at night!
54light15He's at his craziest when he plays the invisible toy accordion.
That's harsh!
But I love it.
Now we need a 'meme' like the one with Hitler dancing a jig, where someone finds video of him doing this 'live' with his hands and loops it. And overdubs accordion/bandoneon music... the zanier, the better. Perhaps accompanied by ukulele and a kid's section of those 1/8 Suzuki-method training violins...?
Nearly as good as that vote heem away song.
Overmod charlie hebdo Trump is incapable of doing an even adequate job. It's simply not in his personality or cognitive realm I happen to agree with you, and that's before I acknowledge your specific distinctive competence to assess those sort of things. The point I would make is that Trump is far from the only one to blame here, and a wide range of interests have manipulated the situation for their perceived benefit, including managing the feat of blasting Biden's prospective candidacy and Trump at the same time while apparently thinking we wouldn't notice ... I won't go into the subsequent politics except to note there are at least equal-grade lulus both in figures like DiBlasio and Newsom and that moron in New Orleans on the one hand, and the emergent-political-administrator folks who seem to have risen to prominence in 'gevernnent' science and health 'advisory' positions (where pseudo leaders like Trump will mistake their position for a credential of competence in something other than expedient career advancement, and as corporate management-without-a-clue so often does run a version of corporate reorganization with a 'magic bullet' solution du semaine ... added to in this case by Trump's penchant for taking credit for the idea just a bit too soon) on the other. (And no, I'm not saying some variant of 'throw all those bums out and listen to ME because I have all the Super-Genius answers, either. I have to do Dunning-Kruger review every day on what I think I know, and be prepared to change when I am, as happens so often, wrong. But that's why it's good to point to why something might work, rather than just why I believe it, and get consensus on what to do subsequent to that with 'consent of the affected' and not just because it's expedient.)
charlie hebdo Trump is incapable of doing an even adequate job. It's simply not in his personality or cognitive realm
I happen to agree with you, and that's before I acknowledge your specific distinctive competence to assess those sort of things.
The point I would make is that Trump is far from the only one to blame here, and a wide range of interests have manipulated the situation for their perceived benefit, including managing the feat of blasting Biden's prospective candidacy and Trump at the same time while apparently thinking we wouldn't notice ... I won't go into the subsequent politics except to note there are at least equal-grade lulus both in figures like DiBlasio and Newsom and that moron in New Orleans on the one hand, and the emergent-political-administrator folks who seem to have risen to prominence in 'gevernnent' science and health 'advisory' positions (where pseudo leaders like Trump will mistake their position for a credential of competence in something other than expedient career advancement, and as corporate management-without-a-clue so often does run a version of corporate reorganization with a 'magic bullet' solution du semaine ... added to in this case by Trump's penchant for taking credit for the idea just a bit too soon) on the other.
(And no, I'm not saying some variant of 'throw all those bums out and listen to ME because I have all the Super-Genius answers, either. I have to do Dunning-Kruger review every day on what I think I know, and be prepared to change when I am, as happens so often, wrong. But that's why it's good to point to why something might work, rather than just why I believe it, and get consensus on what to do subsequent to that with 'consent of the affected' and not just because it's expedient.)
So, mirabile legere, you're acknowledging that you've overestimated your abilities or knowledge?
charlie hebdoSo, mirabile legere, you're acknowledging that you've overestimated your abilities or knowledge?
I acknowledge it every day. And while I do try to bring my ability up to higher levels, and expand my knowledge, I definitely know where quite a few of my limitations are, and defer to better authority in forming opinions when I have them.
Dunning-Kruger is a bit different; it's when you assume that what YOU know is superior to others because it's your idea, and you haven't got much of a clue what the situation is. Where the problem with this comes in is not with typical 'nutball avoidance' and Brave New Theory Advocacy, but when conventional explanations of something well outside your experience or training turn out to be ... well, just as wrong as the more usual kind of Dunning-Kruger culprits. I don't like it when that happens, not because I hate to be wrong but because I put thought and effort into learning something that is wrong.
Of course I also have to chuckle at the widespread evidence of Dunning-Kruger behavior in academics and experts forced into thinking or acting outside their field. Most lay people don't think that highly-educated people can be just as cockily overconfident in their own intellectual powers while being just flat wrong as the usual run of soi-disant besserwissers. But sometimes ... in the present crisis, a lot ... they can even be worse. At least I try not to be, most of the time, whether I come off as being careful or not.
I think you are a bit off on D-K, as best as I recall. But that's OK since it's not in one of your many *wheelhouses* (an expression I detest, BTW).
I have to ask, Overmod- Whiskey Tango Foxtrot is a "besserwisser?"
I hate all of these terms- wheelhouse, stay in your lane, gaslight, cuck, libtard; even red state and blue state. I moved to Canada in 1995 and I don't recall anyone using those red-blue terms and none of the others, either.
From the latest MIT - to - Alumni download, excerpted, with several long but very informative and timely articles that I am sure most of you will appreciate the chance to read:
At Sydney’s famed Bondi Beach, hundreds of swimmers and surfers braved cool autumn weather to return to the water.
Police had closed the beach five weeks ago because of thousands of people congregating there in defiance of social distancing regulations to stop the spread of the coronavirus.
The beach was reopened for exercise only. Visitors were being counted to ensure social distancing and they couldn’t linger on the sand. A virus testing tent is nearby since the local municipality has a high rate of infections, particularly among backpackers who often live in crowded conditions.
In Christchurch, New Zealand, surfers greeted a spectacular sunrise as they returned to the waves. New Zealand has eased its monthlong lockdown, allowing some activities if social distancing is maintained.
From Associated Press
https://apnews.com/3ee83593a4ea02615353182be249f0e8?utm_source=piano&utm_medium=email&utm_campaig
charlie hebdoI think you are a bit off on D-K, as best as I recall.
Gently put, and I appreciate it.
The original paper involved, as I recall, people of relatively low relative intelligence (or in some interpretations, I think, intellectual capability of some measure) overrating their competence. Whether 'Dunning-Kruger' can fully be applied to cases of other assumed, but erratic, intellectual superiority can of course be questioned, and I'd probably defer to your opinion if you think it does not properly apply. Is there a better "publicly-acknowledged" term for presumed intellectual superiority that is mostly illusory, or for those people who presume expertise without mastery or experience?
Funny perhaps, but 'wheelhouse' never bothered me as an expression, perhaps because it always made me think of Twain's Life on the Mississippi. The extended sense involving complete knowledge and complete responsibility (in context) of a kind that impressed me when I read it as a child ... and still does re-reading some of the discussion today. I think it is a much more evocative term than the more modern division of responsibility on a 'bridge' carries.
Of course it could be said to have a sort of upperclass Locust-Valley-lockjaw dismissive snobbery flavor to it ... 'not in my wheelhouse, old boy' (and not fully understanding what being there would mean). What other semantic senses do people give the expression? I certainly never even thought of it as intentionally derogatory or dismissive like most of the 'other words' mentioned.
This corny expression was first seen in print in The Times-Picayune (New Orleans, Louisiana), 04 May 1896 according to Reddit [yes, yes, I know!] referring to the control station on a riverboat and a pol's qualifications. Another *source* suggests a baseball derivation.
*Not in my toolbox* would be a similar usage. Frankly, I agree with you that there is a condescending, arrogant or haughty quality to all of these metaphorical expressions.
charlie hebdo ... referring to the control station on a riverboat and a pol's qualifications.
I confess I always thought what Barksdale meant was not related to 'qualifications' at all; it was that Singleton lived in the same area he did, yet was picked 'over' him as candidate. "Right in his wheelhouse' referred either to the area Barksdale was used to 'administering' as 'captain of the ship of state' or in which he did most of his business ... in either case it wasn't about Singleton's "qualifications" at all, more the perceived slap at him by picking a neighbor.
This leaves out the 'other' meaning of the expression: when someone tries to dodge responsibility or assignment by using it to claim it's outside their area of competence... or assigned responsibility/job description.
Now, I love Peter Tamony as much as anyone, but I think he's just wrong in thinking 'wheelhouse' is where batters can best 'wheel' and hit the ball. It's the small place they can show their professional power to telling effect ... and I confess I never thought that part of the strike zone was other than a 'riverboat' derivation.
I had to chuckle at the Carville baseball quote, though: I wasn't familiar with the use of 'tagging' to refer to something in baseball other than putting someone out by touching them with the ball before they can touch the base, in parallel with the touch in 'tag, you're it'. How one does this with wheelhouse-appropriate skills is... well, something best known to a Carville, perhaps.
Louisiana idiosyncratic speech? Almost neologisms. Who knows what Arcadian types mean sometimes unless they explain. I had a female friend in grad school from Lafayette and felt like I was in another world occasionally. Not far from your wheelhouse, used in the sense of geographic propinquity.
A nationwide curfew for Independence Day has taken effect, with Israelis now barred from traveling more than 100 meters from their homes until tomorrow night at 8 p.m.
Had planned on going to my apartment this evening, but will spend the night at the Yeshiva.
54light15 I hate all of these terms- wheelhouse, stay in your lane, gaslight,...
I hate all of these terms- wheelhouse, stay in your lane, gaslight,...
The term, gaslight in particular seems to be an unusually long way around the simple point of messing with someone's head.
54light15 I have to ask, Overmod- Whiskey Tango Foxtrot is a "besserwisser?" I hate all of these terms- wheelhouse, stay in your lane, gaslight, cuck, libtard; even red state and blue state. I moved to Canada in 1995 and I don't recall anyone using those red-blue terms and none of the others, either.
I dislike them also, though the etymologies are interesting.
*Besserwisser* is German for a know-it- all, literally a person who thinks he knows stuff better. After reunification, it was modified by former East Germans (Ossis) to *Besserwesser* to refer to Wessis who thought only they knew what to do.
Our community is FREE to join. To participate you must either login or register for an account.