Convicted One York1 officials said they were now including people who had never tested positive for the virus but were presumed to have died of it." Your point is a valid one. What those officials are doing, IMO, is highly irresponsible. I was not aware anyone was doing this. I'm wondering if they have a nefarious motive, or are simply so short of test kits that they have been prioritized for the living? Things are a bit different where I live. Here you can't get diagnosed without a test, and you can't get tested without symptoms. So we might have exactly the opposite problem,.... funny world isn't it?
York1 officials said they were now including people who had never tested positive for the virus but were presumed to have died of it."
Your point is a valid one. What those officials are doing, IMO, is highly irresponsible. I was not aware anyone was doing this.
I'm wondering if they have a nefarious motive, or are simply so short of test kits that they have been prioritized for the living?
Things are a bit different where I live. Here you can't get diagnosed without a test, and you can't get tested without symptoms. So we might have exactly the opposite problem,.... funny world isn't it?
The reasoning behind including those not tested is that they didn't do autopsies on those bodies, which I presume now to have been cremated, there fore including them in the number errs on the side of caution.
GERALD L MCFARLANE JRThe reasoning behind including those not tested is that they didn't do autopsies on those bodies, which I presume now to have been cremated, there fore including them in the number errs on the side of caution.
Erring on the side of caution is exactly why there is some question about the total death rate.
The motives of some people who have doubts about the total death rate are being questioned.
I'm editing my statement below. After reading it, I know it was not clear.
It's also proper to question the motives of some people who don't want the death rate questioned.
York1 John
York1The motives of some people who have doubts about the total death rate are being questioned.
I think that it's also fair to say that there are some who question the motives of the doubters, as well.
Answering the question: Israel's Health Ministry considers the death by Cononavirus even if the person had previous medical issues, and nearly all did have previuos serious neducal issues..
Convicted One York1 The motives of some people who have doubts about the total death rate are being questioned. I think that it's also fair to say that there are some who question the motives of the doubters, as well.
York1 The motives of some people who have doubts about the total death rate are being questioned.
Personally I question the motives of anyone who skews statistics from what is common-sense accurate, for whatever reason (including expediency).
What will come next will be the usual scientific-semantic kerfuffle about 'what the proximate cause of death' in severe COVID-19 ought to be'. Of course the same thing applies to pneumonias 'secondary' to influenza; whether carefully or not, there are seldom stats that differentiate autoimmune runaway from secondary infections. Wanna bet how many of such deaths are classed 'influenza' rather than 'pneumonia' ... or vice versa?
OvermodPersonally I question the motives of anyone who skews statistics from what is common-sense accurate, for whatever reason (including expediency).
What is common sense accuracy? The actual death toll may be much higher or much lower.
From the NYT: "We also don't really know how each of the city's dozens of hospitals and medical facilites are counting their dead. For example, if a patient who is presumed to have coronavirus is admitted to the hospital, but dies there before they can be tested, it is unclear how they might factor into the formal death tally."
Also: "It is almost impossible to say how many of those 1,125 patients who died at home or in street in the first five days of April had coronavirus - some may have been previously tested before their death and either were never admitted to a hospital or had been sent home."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-death-count.html
York1 Overmod Personally I question the motives of anyone who skews statistics from what is common-sense accurate, for whatever reason (including expediency). What is common sense accuracy? The actual death toll may be much higher or much lower. From the NYT: "We also don't really know how each of the city's dozens of hospitals and medical facilites are counting their dead. For example, if a patient who is presumed to have coronavirus is admitted to the hospital, but dies there before they can be tested, it is unclear how they might factor into the formal death tally." Also: "It is almost impossible to say how many of those 1,125 patients who died at home or in street in the first five days of April had coronavirus - some may have been previously tested before their death and either were never admitted to a hospital or had been sent home." https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-death-count.html
Overmod Personally I question the motives of anyone who skews statistics from what is common-sense accurate, for whatever reason (including expediency).
Whoever said 'Dead men tell no tales!'
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
Overmod Convicted One York1 The motives of some people who have doubts about the total death rate are being questioned. I think that it's also fair to say that there are some who question the motives of the doubters, as well. Personally I question the motives of anyone who skews statistics from what is common-sense accurate, for whatever reason (including expediency). What will come next will be the usual scientific-semantic kerfuffle about 'what the proximate cause of death' in severe COVID-19 ought to be'. Of course the same thing applies to pneumonias 'secondary' to influenza; whether carefully or not, there are seldom stats that differentiate autoimmune runaway from secondary infections. Wanna bet how many of such deaths are classed 'influenza' rather than 'pneumonia' ... or vice versa?
This is always the case, as I pointed out with a few of the many examples faced by professionals everyday: a specific chronic disease vs "complications" whether arising from the disease or opportunistic infections.
Doubts about the motives of professionals seems to be a purely political motivation and likely a projection of their own desire to spin what has been an unmitigated disaster by the current occupant. Heck, he's a laughing stock around the world and by most Americans.
York1Also: "It is almost impossible to say how many of those 1,125 patients who died at home or in street in the first five days of April had coronavirus - some may have been previously tested before their death and either were never admitted to a hospital or had been sent home."
I suppose there is always a degree of "people will find what they are looking for".
Couple years ago here, there was a road rage incident where the two parties pulled over to the side of the road and exchanged fists. One of them had a heart condition, and soon after died of a heart attack.
I guess the "killer" made an opportunistic traffic maneuver, and the deceased responded with a hand gesture, and tempers flared from there.
Some here were calling for a first degree murder charge, because "the killer willingly parked his car in preparation for the fight"
How would you call it?
I guess some might write it off as "traffic related"?
Not first-degree murder, certainly.
Maybe second-degree manslaughter. Maybe. Presumedly the one with the heart condition knew he had a heart condition and chose to fight anyway when he just could have walked away. People do stupid things when they think with their glands and not their brains.
Anyway, were I on a jury concerning this I'd have a hard time convicting on a first-degree murder charge, given the facts as stated above.
Speaking of "road rage," here's Uncle Vinny trying to deal with it.
Warning! If you don't like rough language don't trigger the link! But if you want to have a good laugh or two...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1tjTASpmqA
charlie hebdo purely political motivation and likely a projection of their own desire to spin what has been an unmitigated disaster by the current occupant. Heck, he's a laughing stock around the world and by most Americans.
Perhaps, but as with so many things these days, we are forced to choose between the lesser of available evils.
charlie hebdoDoubts about the motives of professionals seems to be a purely political motivation and likely a projection of their own desire to spin what has been an unmitigated disaster by the current occupant.
It was professionals (in a couple of medical specialties) who first raised to me the issue of how the Italian 'higher death rate' was more likely a statistical definitional quirk rather than some latent charactistic of the Italian population -- or increased proof of Italian incompetence in addressing the pandemic. Accurate science does matter.
I think there is substantial argument in the professional community against 'gaming' the death percentage either way, as is beginning to become more and more expedient for those who want numbers that confirm the interests'where they sit'. I don't treat professional office-seekers or professional opinion spinners with nearly the same respect I have for mindful medical personnel, including those in academic medicine.
Even if there were ZERO deaths - the health care system is being overwhelmed in the 'hot spots' as the hospital admissions are staying hospitalized for 10 - 20 - 30 - 40 - 50 or 60 days - using various kinds of medical equipement for longer periods of time that has heretofore been the norm.
With there having been over 1M CONFIRMED cases in the past 3 months in the USA alone, without a proven 'cure' the health care 'system' as we presently know it, is broken.
Balt, if they come up with a cure for COVID-19 it'll be the first virus in history they've developed a cure for.
Dr. Fauci's been involved with the search for an AIDS virus cure since the 80's, not single-handed mind you, and so far, nothing. Oh, they've come up with medications to mitigate the AIDS virus, but there's no cure. Don't expect a cure for this one either.
And a preventive vaccine? At least a year away.
Overmod charlie hebdo Doubts about the motives of professionals seems to be a purely political motivation and likely a projection of their own desire to spin what has been an unmitigated disaster by the current occupant. It was professionals (in a couple of medical specialties) who first raised to me the issue of how the Italian 'higher death rate' was more likely a statistical definitional quirk rather than some latent charactistic of the Italian population -- or increased proof of Italian incompetence in addressing the pandemic. Accurate science does matter. I think there is substantial argument in the professional community against 'gaming' the death percentage either way, as is beginning to become more and more expedient for those who want numbers that confirm the interests'where they sit'. I don't treat professional office-seekers or professional opinion spinners with nearly the same respect I have for mindful medical personnel, including those in academic medicine.
charlie hebdo Doubts about the motives of professionals seems to be a purely political motivation and likely a projection of their own desire to spin what has been an unmitigated disaster by the current occupant.
I said "professionals" meaning highly trained practitioners in the relevant specializations, along with academics from such fields of expertise, which includes their years of experience, of course. I knew very little fresh out of grad school, just a good foundation. Clinical experience and ongoing training are what matter more.
Flintlock76Balt, if they come up with a cure for COVID-19 it'll be the first virus in history they've developed a cure for. Dr. Fauci's been involved with the search for an AIDS virus cure since the 80's, not single-handed mind you, and so far, nothing. Oh, they've come up with medications to mitigate the AIDS virus, but there's no cure. Don't expect a cure for this one either. And a preventive vaccine? At least a year away.
I misspoke about cure - I was meaning a scientifically acknowledged 'effective treatment' that reduces the death rate to less than 1 tenth of 1 percent.
As an aside, the local 'retirement' community up the street from my home has acknowledged 26 confirmed cases with 5 deaths.
BaltACD Flintlock76 Balt, if they come up with a cure for COVID-19 it'll be the first virus in history they've developed a cure for. Dr. Fauci's been involved with the search for an AIDS virus cure since the 80's, not single-handed mind you, and so far, nothing. Oh, they've come up with medications to mitigate the AIDS virus, but there's no cure. Don't expect a cure for this one either. And a preventive vaccine? At least a year away. I misspoke about cure - I was meaning a scientifically acknowledged 'effective treatment' that reduces the death rate to less than 1 tenth of 1 percent. As an aside, the local 'retirement' community up the street from my home has acknowledged 26 confirmed cases with 5 deaths.
Flintlock76 Balt, if they come up with a cure for COVID-19 it'll be the first virus in history they've developed a cure for. Dr. Fauci's been involved with the search for an AIDS virus cure since the 80's, not single-handed mind you, and so far, nothing. Oh, they've come up with medications to mitigate the AIDS virus, but there's no cure. Don't expect a cure for this one either. And a preventive vaccine? At least a year away.
Death traps. Petri dishes. "A place for Mom (to die)."
charlie hebdo BaltACD Flintlock76 Balt, if they come up with a cure for COVID-19 it'll be the first virus in history they've developed a cure for. Dr. Fauci's been involved with the search for an AIDS virus cure since the 80's, not single-handed mind you, and so far, nothing. Oh, they've come up with medications to mitigate the AIDS virus, but there's no cure. Don't expect a cure for this one either. And a preventive vaccine? At least a year away. I misspoke about cure - I was meaning a scientifically acknowledged 'effective treatment' that reduces the death rate to less than 1 tenth of 1 percent. As an aside, the local 'retirement' community up the street from my home has acknowledged 26 confirmed cases with 5 deaths. Death traps. Petri dishes. "A place for Mom (to die)."
The local petri dish! Fairhaven
https://www.actsretirement.org/communities/maryland/fairhaven-sykesville/
Case fatality rates for all of San Diego County are:80+ yrs ~26%70-79yrs ~13%60-69yrs ~5%50-59yrs ~1%0-49 less than 1%
Note that the rates were based on numbers of KNOWN cases, actual infection fatality should be lower. How much lower is subject to debate, but a factor of two lower is very likely due to testing being very limited until recently. Reported cases have gone up with a higher rate of testing, but the increase is consistent with detecting cases that would not have been detected earlier.
One piece of good news was that the Korean finding of people getting re-infected was mostly due to problems with testing - that means vaccines should have a good chance of working.
There have been a couple of papers stating that COVID-19 can induce malaria like changes in the blood, which may explain why anti-malarial medications were showing benefits.
Thanks Erik. I am assuming the mortality rates will be similar in other metro areas.
Erik_Mag Case fatality rates for all of San Diego County are:80+ yrs ~26%70-79yrs ~13%60-69yrs ~5%50-59yrs ~1%0-49 less than 1% Note that the rates were based on numbers of KNOWN cases, actual infection fatality should be lower. How much lower is subject to debate, but a factor of two lower is very likely due to testing being very limited until recently. Reported cases have gone up with a higher rate of testing, but the increase is consistent with detecting cases that would not have been detected earlier. One piece of good news was that the Korean finding of people getting re-infected was mostly due to problems with testing - that means vaccines should have a good chance of working. There have been a couple of papers stating that COVID-19 can induce malaria like changes in the blood, which may explain why anti-malarial medications were showing benefits.
Those percentages line up with previous estimates and projections, so it sounds like the numbers are right...they also match up with statistics from other locals, including Italia's numbers(and there's are skewed to the older group because of population).
One key is that testing of deceased should be mandated to determine whether or not a person death is COVID-19 related or not. Presume that if someone dies and test postive it was related to COVID-19, if a negative test then the death was from some other source.
GERALD L MCFARLANE JROne key is that testing of deceased should be mandated to determine whether or not a person death is COVID-19 related or not. Presume that if someone dies and test postive it was related to COVID-19, if a negative test then the death was from some other source.
Presuming that there was actually sufficient testing materials and test processing power. To date there is not.
The State of Maryland purchased half a million tests from S. Korea for $9M. I am hearing that the supplies necessary to perfrom and process the tests are in short supply.
BaltACD GERALD L MCFARLANE JR One key is that testing of deceased should be mandated to determine whether or not a person death is COVID-19 related or not. Presume that if someone dies and test postive it was related to COVID-19, if a negative test then the death was from some other source. Presuming that there was actually sufficient testing materials and test processing power. To date there is not. The State of Maryland purchased half a million tests from S. Korea for $9M. I am hearing that the supplies necessary to perfrom and process the tests are in short supply.
GERALD L MCFARLANE JR One key is that testing of deceased should be mandated to determine whether or not a person death is COVID-19 related or not. Presume that if someone dies and test postive it was related to COVID-19, if a negative test then the death was from some other source.
Just part of the screw-up by an incompetent president and his cronies who think 60,000 dead and counting is doing a great job.
charlie hebdo Just part of the screw-up by an incompetent president and his cronies who think 60,000 dead and counting is doing a great job.
With a more than a quarter of that total due an even more incopetent governor and an incredibly incompetent mayor. There was a national stockpile of PPE and other useful material for pandemics set up by GW Bush, but a large portion was used up during the 2009-2016 time frame without being replenished.
In a dire situation as were are in now, it is very easy to want to pin the blame on one person or smal group of people. The reality is that serious mistakes were made on multiple levels (e.g. Dr. Fauci statinng in January, that the coronavirus was going to be a non-issue). One of the most serious mistakes was telling people not to wear masks.
Erik_MagOne of the most serious mistakes was telling people not to wear masks.
DiBlasio did not react soon enough, true, but Cuomo picked up the pieces and has tried pretty successfully to mitigate. Trump delayed shut off foreign visitors from China and Europe until after hundreds of thousands had poured in through Kennedy. With Truman the buck stopped with him; with Trump and his supporters, it's "Buck, it's Obama's fault. "
charlie hebdoWith Truman the buck stopped with him
As, arguably, did Soviet domination of Eastern Europe, the "unforeseen" Communist takeover of China, the effective theft of the atomic-bomb detail design and the groundwork for the stealing of the hydrogen-bomb planning (see whose name is on the patent for the practical thermonuclear device!) Seems to me we got little acknowledgment of those 'bucks' stopping, which are orders of magnitude more serious than taking the wrong 'expert' advice from the wrong cabal of experts.
Not that this excuses Trump by any means; in my opinion his administration's response has been lacking on many levels, and the prospective little turf fight doubtless up to a Supreme Court already likely dismayed at the prospect regarding a sitting President's authority to overrule state health policies -- whether by cobbled-up 'emergency' power or some 'executive order' legerdemain that will bring up Obama again and again and again -- is not pleasant to contemplate while we still have no operative plan to address resurgence when, not if, we see it starting.
Personally I'll be happy when the convention is over and the busy little beavers in the Democratic Party 'deep organization' stop trying to wreck Biden in various ways and just turn their attention back to Trump directly. More might be accomplished then.
Taking into account the limits on the power of the president versus the powers of the states, here's what I think the president would needed to have done differently:First (early January) - Ban anyone traveling through China from entering with the exception of citizens and permanent residents and subject those who do enter to quarantine.Second: Set similar travel restrictions for people coming from Europe at the first sign of community spread there.Third: Limit travel from areas in the US with high rates of infection. Rhode Island was right in wanting to quarantine people coming in from NYC.
Note that all of the above steps would have generate an enourmous amount of pushback, especially considering the impeachment process was going on at the time of the frsit proposed step. Also note the the China travel ban was getting a lot of criticism when it was implemented in January (Pelosi, Biden).
One other misstep on Trump's part was not putting pressure on the CDC to get testing kits out and not issuing an executive order to let other labs develop there own tests.
As for New York, they were about two weeks ahead of California in case rate, but didn't shut down until 3 days after California.
Cuomo did not have the power to shut down Kennedy. Trump failed to coordinate efforts of the agencies (which earlier had been stripped down using the Steve Bannyon model) and still doesn't. Perfect storm.
Criticism? Impeachment? Real leaders can handle criticism constructively, but not pathological narcissists. Impeachment's end result was a done deal months before. But for a narcissist, it threatened his stability.
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