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Posted by Euclid on Saturday, March 12, 2022 11:24 AM

Convicted One

 

 
Euclid
If Ukraine is vastly overmatched by Russia, is it escalation to increase Ukraine’s advantage by giving them more weapons?  Is NATO/U.S. 100% neutral in this conflict?

 

That, IMO, is a convenient rationalization.

We are too much  accustomed, IMO,  to cutting ourselves slack in service to our own agenda, while denying our opponents the same sense of legitimacy.

I always try to at least understand the POV of an opponent. Some insist that very willingness to be a weakness.

If you are Russia,  NATO forces on your doorstep ARE a threat.  All the people who insist that Russia has no legitimate skin in the game are, IMO,  being either unrealistic, or worse.

That doesn't mean that I'm cheering for Putin to succeed, I just  believe that I understand why he feels the way he does.

But it does irk me the way some insist upon forgiving in ourselves that which we condemn in our opponents, That's why your "escalation" comment got my attention. Storm

 

 

I understand your points perfectly.  What I don't understand is why you seem to believe that I disagree with those points.  I have gone to the end of the earth to understand Putin and our reaction to him. I have been critical of the premise that all blame belongs to Putin.  I have linked references that contend that all blame goes to NATO and the west.  But I certainly do not insist that that means I am supporting Putin.  But it does explain his motive in this conflict.  

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Posted by Convicted One on Saturday, March 12, 2022 11:07 AM

In the back of my mind, I suspect that Putin thinks he's gonna uncover covert NATO weaponry inside Ukraine, and have a "Francis Gary Powers" moment.

 

Just a pet crack pot theory.  Zip it!

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Posted by Convicted One on Saturday, March 12, 2022 10:59 AM

Euclid
If Ukraine is vastly overmatched by Russia, is it escalation to increase Ukraine’s advantage by giving them more weapons?  Is NATO/U.S. 100% neutral in this conflict?

That, IMO, is a convenient rationalization.

We are too much  accustomed, IMO,  to cutting ourselves slack in service to our own agenda, while denying our opponents the same sense of legitimacy.

I always try to at least understand the POV of an opponent. Some insist that very willingness to be a weakness.

If you are Russia,  NATO forces on your doorstep ARE a threat.  All the people who insist that Russia has no legitimate skin in the game are, IMO,  being either unrealistic, or worse.

That doesn't mean that I'm cheering for Putin to succeed, I just  believe that I understand why he feels the way he does.

But it does irk me the way some insist upon forgiving in ourselves that which we condemn in our opponents, That's why your "escalation" comment got my attention. Storm

 

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Posted by Euclid on Saturday, March 12, 2022 8:44 AM
NATO/U.S. is expressing a desire to prevent escalation.   Putin has offered no viewpoint on escalation.  In a context of a two-sided war, escalation is gradual and relatively easy to control by either side.  So the conflict need not spin out of control.  Escalation has an implication of being gradual, so the danger is simply having it creep up without being noticed in time to stop it.    
 
But with NATO functioning as a collective, with several countries entering the war simultaneously, massive escalation is fundamentally instantaneous.  It goes off like a catapult and is fully complete before anything can be done to limit it.  So if just one small detail triggers Article 5, the war instantly escalates exponentially. 
 
Putin views escalation itself as a weapon of war rather than a defect that must be feared and avoided.  His view of escalation is that one side can win a war by explosively escalating in a way that shocks the opponent into simply quitting the fight. 
 
So in this conflict, Putin’s strategy of “Escalate to De-escalate,” and NATO’S strategy of a collective triggering of many countries to go to full war simultaneously-- these are both mechanisms that will cause an explosive escalation of the conflict. 
 
Yet this conflict clearly has a potential nuclear phase at the highest level of escalation.  Total escalation leads into nuclear war.  Therefore, both sides know they must go as fast as they can to win, but stop before they reach the cliff.
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Posted by Backshop on Saturday, March 12, 2022 7:18 AM

54light15

Yes, the US and Canada and many others fought a war against that insanity yet that insanity never ever goes away, does it? If it did, then who would be the easily indentified enemy of the "real people" that is so easy to bring up when times are difficult?  It's a case of the same old sh**, different century. 

 

You mean the Russians talking about the Ukrainian "nazis"?

What I find humorous and ironic is how so many American right wingers who had no problem with neo-nazis here are now supporting Putin against the "nazis" in Ukraine, because they are "bad" all of a sudden.

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Posted by Flintlock76 on Saturday, March 12, 2022 7:14 AM

tree68
I wonder how our friend Soros is making out these days...

I'm not one of those people who looks under the bed to make sure George Soros is hiding there, as far as I'm concerned all he's after is the money as well.  He'll pull strings and use influence to get more of it however he can.

He didn't get as rich as he is by being stupid. Or anti-capitalist. 

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Posted by BaltACD on Friday, March 11, 2022 11:31 PM

kgbw49
In this whole situation, watch what China does, not what it says.

China is about to become the biggest trading partner of Russia, buying its oil, natural gas, and coal to underwrite the Ukraine invasion.

China will do this because it can. It knows that the current US dependency on China is a relationship that is "too big to fail" for the US. US balance-of-trade-deficit dollars are funding the expansion of the Chinese military. Those balance-of-trade-deficit dollars will also fund the purchase of energy from Russia. And Chinese businesses will step in where US business pull out - Amazon leaves Russia, Alibaba moves in, for example.

Russia and their invasion of Ukraine is a valuable stalking horse for China, occupying America and Europe while they continue their strategic moves for more Chinese hegemony in Eastern Asia and the Western Pacific.

Net result - the Russion war machine will slowly grind on to grind down Ukraine.

There is a line from an old Patrick Swayze movie titled "Next of Kin" that applies to this Ukraine conflict if the status quo continues:

"You ain't seen bad yet, but it's coming." It has been awful so far and it is going to get much worse. The senseless loss of life and the devastation so far are horrendous, and it is going to get much worse with each passing day.

Putin may end up putting a puppet regime in Kyiv and occupying Ukraine - however, I get the feeling that in comparison the Germans had it easy in dealing with French Resistance as opposed to what the Ukrainians will do over the period of occupancy.

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Posted by 54light15 on Friday, March 11, 2022 10:23 PM

Yes, the US and Canada and many others fought a war against that insanity yet that insanity never ever goes away, does it? If it did, then who would be the easily indentified enemy of the "real people" that is so easy to bring up when times are difficult?  It's a case of the same old sh**, different century. 

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Friday, March 11, 2022 9:57 PM

54light15

Elites? Who are they? The Eastern bankers and cosmopolitan one-worlders that populists like to point the finger at? Those all seem like code worlds for the world's oldest hatred. I'm not accusing anyone here of that but it always seems like a case of round up the usual suspects. 

 

Between K and his "elites" and T (his reference to Soros is pretty clear) it's no secret that anti something paranoia lurks derp in the hearts of some on here.  Don't like it? Tough. The US fought a war against a regime that was based on that insanity.

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Posted by 54light15 on Friday, March 11, 2022 9:51 PM

Elites? Who are they? The Eastern bankers and cosmopolitan one-worlders that populists like to point the finger at? Those all seem like code worlds for the world's oldest hatred. I'm not accusing anyone here of that but it always seems like a case of round up the usual suspects. 

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Posted by kgbw49 on Friday, March 11, 2022 9:51 PM

In this whole situation, watch what China does, not what it says.

China is about to become the biggest trading partner of Russia, buying its oil, natural gas, and coal to underwrite the Ukraine invasion.

China will do this because it can. It knows that the current US dependency on China is a relationship that is "too big to fail" for the US. US balance-of-trade-deficit dollars are funding the expansion of the Chinese military. Those balance-of-trade-deficit dollars will also fund the purchase of energy from Russia. And Chinese businesses will step in where US business pull out - Amazon leaves Russia, Alibaba moves in, for example.

Russia and their invasion of Ukraine is a valuable stalking horse for China, occupying America and Europe while they continue their strategic moves for more Chinese hegemony in Eastern Asia and the Western Pacific.

Net result - the Russion war machine will slowly grind on to grind down Ukraine.

There is a line from an old Patrick Swayze movie titled "Next of Kin" that applies to this Ukraine conflict if the status quo continues:

"You ain't seen bad yet, but it's coming." It has been awful so far and it is going to get much worse. The senseless loss of life and the devastation so far are horrendous, and it is going to get much worse with each passing day.

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Posted by Euclid on Friday, March 11, 2022 9:03 PM

Convicted One

 

 
Euclid
  It seems to me that the only way the war escalates is if Putin escalates it. 

 

But providing the jets in the first place is not "escalation"?

Point being, we can sit in our armchairs and thump our chests all we want. For some obviously, there is a feel-good associated with that behavior. But for those actually in the front row, they have to be mindful of real world consequences.

 

I don’t know if sending jets to Ukraine is technically escalation.  Do parties to a war ever strive to not escalate? 
 
If Ukraine is vastly overmatched by Russia, is it escalation to increase Ukraine’s advantage by giving them more weapons?  Is NATO/U.S. 100% neutral in this conflict?  Can we be 100% neutral if we place crippling sanctions on Russia?  Why did our side first approve of the deal for Poland to send their jets to Ukraine, and for us to backfill new jets as part of the deal?  What changed our mind?
 

I think the issue here is not about escalation of war per se.  It is about escalation to the point of going nuclear.  There would be no dread of escalation if not for that point.  If it were not for the nuclear threat, we would not care about escalation.  We would just know we would win, and we would help Ukraine. 

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Posted by tree68 on Friday, March 11, 2022 8:36 PM

charlie hebdo
Elites?  Enough of this paranoid delusion.

Another conspiracy theory, to be sure.

Of course, a lot of conspiracy theories have been proven to be fact lately.  Never say never.

I wonder how our friend Soros is making out these days...

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Posted by BEAUSABRE on Friday, March 11, 2022 4:19 PM

For some entertainment, from the motion picture "The Death of Stalin"

Putin's fate, we devoutly hope.

(278) The Death of Stalin - The Coup - YouTube

(278) The Death of Stalin - Beria Trial and Execution - YouTube

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Friday, March 11, 2022 3:57 PM

kgbw49

The only way this is going to end in anything less than a complete slaughter of millions is if somehow there is an agreement to partition the country in a similar manner to East Germany and West Germany.

Otherwise, Russia will keep constricting around the key cities like a python. It won't be long before rail and road transport is cut off to Kyiv- they will continue to encricle Kyiv and bomb bridges.

Starvation of the populace and a horrendous toll of millions of Ukrainians is what Putin is after to be able to coerce a surrender.

If there is no help coming, ultimately supply lines will be cut and the country will literally be starved and butchered to death.

Stingers and Javelins are just kabuki theater. The Chavez-inista behind The President has already determined that Ukraine democracy is going to be eliminated, because if not, the US would have stood up to the commitment to Ukraine signed by President Clinton.

Ultimately NATO would have established a defensive buffer zone inside at least a third of Ukraine.

But absent any further intervention the people of Ukraine will starved to death and the democracy will be strangled to death as the supply lines and escape routes are cut off.

Elites love to think that humanity has moved past the brutality of the lust for power and conquest, and they as the most intellectual and knowledgeable among us will build a global society of peace and kumbaya. It all sounds so erudite. But humanity has not changed.

Even the elites' quest to build a global society with themselves in charge is driven by the lust for power and conquest - they are just using different means to achieve that power and conquest and subjugation over the globe.

Ultimately the arrogance of the elites results in more of these hellish situations, not fewer, becuase they talk themselves into policies that are disconnected from reality.

Right now, Ukraine democracy is a "dead man walking" unless there is a change in posture of what a defense of Europe means.

Strategically this is only Putin's first move in the chess game to take over a significant chunk of Europe. He is already on the offensive against Europe.

Will NATO wake up and realize that the attack on NATO has started with the invasion of Ukraine?

Time will tell.

 

Elites?  Enough of this paranoid delusion.

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Posted by SD70Dude on Friday, March 11, 2022 3:48 PM

Backshop

Stingers and Javelins are not "kabuki theater".  For lightly armed troops, they are the best anti-air and anti-armor weapons out there.

Earlier versions of these weapons drove the Soviets out of Afghanistan.  

NATO has started building up its forces in eastern Europe, officially as a deterrent to further Russian aggression but we'll see what happens.  

I think that if Putin did not have nuclear weapons the west would currently be preparing to free Ukraine in a much larger version of Desert Storm.  Right now everyone is treading a fine line to try and avoid the nuclear war that Putin has already threatened.

Also, equating the current Biden administration to a Venezuelan dictator makes one lose a lot of credibility.  I expect that sort of crap from propaganda mouthpieces like Tucker Carlson, but not on here.

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Posted by Flintlock76 on Friday, March 11, 2022 3:41 PM

kgbw49
Even the elites' quest to build a global society with themselves in charge is driven by the lust for power and conquest - they are just using different means to achieve that power and conquest and subjugation over the globe.

I don't disagree with anything you've written, but I'd just add a slight modifier to the quote.

I believe they're a lot more interested in MONEY than they are in POWER. 

"Follow the money, it always leads to the truth!"  as a wise man once said.

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Posted by Backshop on Friday, March 11, 2022 3:15 PM

Stingers and Javelins are not "kabuki theater".  For lightly armed troops, they are the best anti-air and anti-armor weapons out there.

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Posted by BEAUSABRE on Friday, March 11, 2022 11:28 AM

Before and after shots of a Ukrainian drone attack a Russian fuel train - no wonder there are reports of "logistics difficulties". Tanks without fuel are targets, says this former Armor officer

(2) Oryx on Twitter: "A Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 struck a Russian military train carrying fuel to the front in Ukraine This is utter, utter humiliation. https://t.co/khbHswp5TU" / Twitter

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Posted by kgbw49 on Friday, March 11, 2022 10:13 AM

The only way this is going to end in anything less than a complete slaughter of millions is if somehow there is an agreement to partition the country in a similar manner to East Germany and West Germany.

Otherwise, Russia will keep constricting around the key cities like a python. It won't be long before rail and road transport is cut off to Kyiv- they will continue to encricle Kyiv and bomb bridges.

Starvation of the populace and a horrendous toll of millions of Ukrainians is what Putin is after to be able to coerce a surrender.

If there is no help coming, ultimately supply lines will be cut and the country will literally be starved and butchered to death.

Stingers and Javelins are just kabuki theater. The Chavez-inista behind The President has already determined that Ukraine democracy is going to be eliminated, because if not, the US would have stood up to the commitment to Ukraine signed by President Clinton.

Ultimately NATO would have established a defensive buffer zone inside at least a third of Ukraine.

But absent any further intervention the people of Ukraine will starved to death and the democracy will be strangled to death as the supply lines and escape routes are cut off.

Elites love to think that humanity has moved past the brutality of the lust for power and conquest, and they as the most intellectual and knowledgeable among us will build a global society of peace and kumbaya. It all sounds so erudite. But humanity has not changed.

Even the elites' quest to build a global society with themselves in charge is driven by the lust for power and conquest - they are just using different means to achieve that power and conquest and subjugation over the globe.

Ultimately the arrogance of the elites results in more of these hellish situations, not fewer, becuase they talk themselves into policies that are disconnected from reality.

Right now, Ukraine democracy is a "dead man walking" unless there is a change in posture of what a defense of Europe means.

Strategically this is only Putin's first move in the chess game to take over a significant chunk of Europe. He is already on the offensive against Europe.

Will NATO wake up and realize that the attack on NATO has started with the invasion of Ukraine?

Time will tell.

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Posted by Backshop on Friday, March 11, 2022 10:00 AM

CMStPnP

 

 
BaltACD
Putin seems to think that the rest of the world existing is an act of war against Russia.

 

Trully the part to snicker over is he thinks China is his friend or ally to be relied on.   Watch how quickly the Chinese throw him under the bus once their interests are threatened.

 

China probably has two views on this.  First, they are now by far the senior partner in the "relationship" and they call the shots.  I'm sure they are buying Russian commodities at very good prices.  Second, they're thinking "we're allies with these toothless idiots".

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Posted by BaltACD on Friday, March 11, 2022 9:05 AM

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

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Posted by CMStPnP on Friday, March 11, 2022 8:24 AM

BaltACD
Putin seems to think that the rest of the world existing is an act of war against Russia.

Trully the part to snicker over is he thinks China is his friend or ally to be relied on.   Watch how quickly the Chinese throw him under the bus once their interests are threatened.

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Posted by CMStPnP on Friday, March 11, 2022 8:22 AM

At this point with his own FSB undermining him by sending intelligence dispatches to the Ukraine.    I'm beginning to have my doubts an order to launch the Nukes by Putin would be followed.

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Posted by Euclid on Friday, March 11, 2022 7:55 AM

I don't think it is clear what the so-called "biological labs" in Ukraine were doing, or how many such labs are involved.  Most of the references I have seen denounce the story.  Does anyone know the facts behind the purpose of these labs?  I have seen one reference saying they were intended to research dangerous pathological viruses that could be used by terrorists.  I don't know if anyone has claimed that the labs were used to manufacture biological weapons of war.  

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Posted by NorthBrit on Friday, March 11, 2022 7:37 AM

blue streak 1
 BaltACD
 
blue streak 1
CeASe fire?  Unless I am mistaken the longest cease fire in the world is the 2 Koreas?  Have never heard that they have signed a peace treaty? 
 

 

BALT:  You are absolitely correct.  Just another internal non treaty. Wonder how many other US - Indian wars do not have a peace  treaty?
 

 
 
Technically,  since 1914 the Isle  of Man has been at war with Germany and has never signed a Peace Treaty.
 
 

When Queen Victoria signed the declaration of war on Russia in 1853, she did so in the name of "Victoria, Queen of Great Britain, Ireland, Berwick-upon-Tweed and the British Dominions beyond the sea." But Berwick was not mentioned in the Treaty of Paris that concluded the Crimean War in 1856, leaving the town technically still at war with Russia.

A peace treaty was only finally signed by a Russian diplomat and the the Mayor of Berwick in 1966. As the mayor said at the time: "You can tell the Russian people that they can now sleep peacefully in their beds".

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Posted by greyhounds on Friday, March 11, 2022 7:22 AM

Today's Wall Street Journal has a decent article about Ukraine's railways functioning in this sickening war.  It's paywalled for sure.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-railroads-have-become-vital-cog-in-kyivs-war-effort-11647000001

The rails have evacuated 2 million women and children. Males 18-60 aren't supposed to leave.  Here's your rifle.

Some reduced volume of freight is still moving as they try to keep some sort of an economy going.

"By many measures, the U.S. freight rail system is the safest, most efficient and cost effective in the world." - Federal Railroad Administration, October, 2009. I'm just your average, everyday, uncivilized howling "anti-government" critic of mass government expenditures for "High Speed Rail" in the US. And I'm gosh darn proud of that.
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Posted by BaltACD on Friday, March 11, 2022 7:07 AM

blue streak 1
Way out thoughts.

1.  According to Putin his logic would say the Alaska sale to the US  is not valid.  Consequences?  Anyone remember how close the US is to Russia?

2.  If criticism continues will Putin dispatch assination teams?  Especially critical news media and comedians?

3.  Russian deaths.  Remember how many men and women Stalin sent to the German fronts that  did not make it home.

4.  Will the bad operation of Russian forces cause improvements to command and control, logistics, planning, etc?

5.  How long will Russian censorship last?  Can some Russians receive sattelite broadcasts?  what about sat phones?

6.  Are some of the US businesses shutting down due to not being able to get products into Russia?

How will Russian families respond as the sons, daughters, fathers and mothers that don't come home or come home in body bags.

Does Putin have the backing to kill the 25 Million Russians that Stalin did?

There are reports that the Russians have suffered about the same number of casulties in Ukraine in two weeks that caused their withdrawal from Afghanistan over a longer period of time.

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Friday, March 11, 2022 12:02 AM

Way out thoughts.

1.  According to Putin his logic would say the Alaska sale to the US  is not valid.  Consequences?  Anyone remember how close the US is to Russia?

2.  If criticism continues will Putin dispatch assination teams?  Especially critical news media and comedians?

3.  Russian deaths.  Remember how many men and women Stalin sent to the German fronts that  did not make it home.

4.  Will the bad operation of Russian forces cause improvements to command and control, logistics, planning, etc?

5.  How long will Russian censorship last?  Can some Russians receive sattelite broadcasts?  what about sat phones?

6.  Are some of the US businesses shutting down due to not being able to get products into Russia?

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Thursday, March 10, 2022 11:16 PM

BaltACD
 
blue streak 1
CeASe fire?  Unless I am mistaken the longest cease fire in the world is the 2 Koreas?  Have never heard that they have signed a peace treaty? 
 

 
BALT:  You are absolitely correct.  Just another internal non treaty. Wonder how many other US - Indian wars do not have a peace  treaty?

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