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Posted by charlie hebdo on Sunday, March 13, 2022 6:14 PM

CMStPnP
Has El Zippo to do with offending Russia, proximity to Russia,  History of the country, etc.    Those are all arguments our Media has constructed as straw men.

History is relevant except for people who ignore it.  Few member states of the former USSR except the three Baltic states have had any experience with representative government. Democracy does not emerge out of nowhere.

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Posted by CMStPnP on Sunday, March 13, 2022 6:01 PM

Euclid
If you take away all the opinions, what are the options that will work?  Can Ukraine defeat Russia?  Some say yes.  Some say impossible.  If they can't defeat Russia, how does this end?  How many will have to be killed because they oppose what is happening to them?  How do you know the limits of what can be negotiated?

You do realize that Ukraine has already defeated Russia in ways unimaginable outside of an actual armed conflict.

1.  Demonstrated that Putin's mouth was writing checks his Army could not keep with his open boasting how quickly he could take over countries before NATO could even deploy.

2. Shown that Russian Military equipment despite all the money spent is still largely crap and in the hands of people not fully trained on it.

3. Demonstrated you do not need fully modern equipment to hold Russia's modernized Army at bay.

These three points above are very damaging to credibility of future Russian military threats as well as other military forces respecting Russia as a military power.

The above alone is also going to cost Russia Billions in future arms sales over the next 20-25 years unless Russia has another war to prove it's performance in this one was an outlier.    As it is always performance in the last war in which you base your judgement of military equipment on before you buy usually.    So far, last few wars Russia has pointed a finger at the purchasing Army as not being competently trained to properly handle Russian Military Equipment.    They made the accusations against the Iraqi's, Syrians, etc.     Now the world is seeing it doesn't even matter if the Russian Army is running things, their equipment is still crap.    The world also learned again that Mr. Putin regularly lies in his boasts about Russian missile and military equipment capabilities.     See any precision bombing going on here?    Any precision missile strikes?   People attribute that to Russian Strategy, I suspect they don't have the capability refined all that much and the Emperor has no clothes in that department.

As to your question, the strategy of Ukraine is stalemate not defeat of Russia.   It is stalemate until the casualties and wrecked equipment are so great on the Russian side that the Russian Armed forces falls apart.    According to U.S. Army stats, that starts to happen to any Army once you lose 30-40% of men in any unit.....morale goes to crap and the unit becomes ineffective as a fighting force unless they are reconstituted in a new unit at full stregnth and the men are spread out sufficiently their shot morale does not impact the new unit.   BTW, our Special Forces taught them that very exact strategy, it is out of their playbook for insurgency.

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Posted by CMStPnP on Sunday, March 13, 2022 5:49 PM

Euclid
I have seen some speculation that since NATO will not allow Ukraine into NATO at this time of their dire need, they may make a deal to join Russia in exchange for ending the attack on them.  It is expected that this will rile NATO because they do not want to see Ukraine be absorbed into Russia.  But yet they failed to help Ukraine because Ukraine would come with the baggage of being in a war with Russia that NATO would have to fight.  This will be very interesting to watch. 

 
First of all, NATO could care less if Ukraine joins or not and to ascribe some kind of politics to the mutual alliance is to not really understand it.    NATO is apolitical and neutral.    The member countries are political but NATO leadership is not.
 
Secondly, there are a few clear principles here that NATO does not want to set a precedent for.   
 
#1.   Letting any country in regardless of where it rates on establishment of a Democracy and Human Rights.   Regardless of what we see on TV, Ukraine is still a very corrupt country and has not achieved minimum NATO membership requirements yet.    Has El Zippo to do with offending Russia, proximity to Russia,  History of the country, etc.    Those are all arguments our Media has constructed as straw men.
#2.   Letting countries join NATO only at the point they feel threatened by another power, also a very bad precedent.    What the heck then, why not have everyone quit NATO and only join back when they feel threatened, it would cut defense budgets considerably across the NATO membership if that were allowed.
 
Membership in NATO is a commitment not unlike a marriage and it takes time to meet the minimum standards of membership in order to become a member.    You have to meet Democracy standards,  Financial systems standards (low corruption and business audits.....Ukraine was run by Oligarchs until into the 20-teens.), Human right standards (jails not full of political prisoners), Most importantly your Military has to rate to a point where it actually contributes to a joint NATO defense.....which usually always means junking a portion if not all of the Russian military equipment.    Ukraine fell short in several categories and was told to rise to the baseline before we can admit you to NATO.    Russia's feelings were never part of the equation.
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Posted by charlie hebdo on Sunday, March 13, 2022 4:22 PM

Analogous to your way of approaching  this would have been negotiating with Germany in 1941 to see how much territory they should retain. You want to reward aggression. 

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Posted by JayBee on Sunday, March 13, 2022 2:29 PM

Jason Bronk an analyst with the British Think Tank RUSI (Royal United Services Institute), has some interesting thoughts about the Russian Air Force in Ukraine and why it seems so ineffective so far.

The VKS over Ukraine

 

Here are his thoughts on a No-Fly Zone

 

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Posted by Euclid on Sunday, March 13, 2022 1:14 PM

charlie hebdo

Tass?  Seriously?

A Feb.25 article?

Opinion pieces?

How can anyone trust any agreed Russia signs?  They have violated the agreement they signed in the early 90s. 

 

If you take away all the opinions, what are the options that will work?  Can Ukraine defeat Russia?  Some say yes.  Some say impossible.  If they can't defeat Russia, how does this end?  How many will have to be killed because they oppose what is happening to them?  How do you know the limits of what can be negotiated?

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Sunday, March 13, 2022 12:42 PM

Tass?  Seriously?

A Feb.25 article?

Opinion pieces?

How can anyone trust any agreed Russia signs?  They have violated the agreement they signed in the early 90s.

Russia has little experience with a representative government. It is an authoritarian state with limited access to anything but state media, headed by a former spook.

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Posted by Euclid on Sunday, March 13, 2022 12:20 PM

charlie hebdo

 

 
Euclid
I have seen some speculation that since NATO will not allow Ukraine into NATO at this time of their dire need, they may make a deal to join Russia in exchange for ending the attack on them.  It is expected that this will rile NATO because they do not want to see Ukraine be absorbed into Russia.  But yet they failed to help Ukraine because Ukraine would come with the baggage of being in a war with Russia that NATO would have to fight.  This will be very interesting to watch. 
 

 

 

Garbage!!

 

In what way?

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted by Backshop on Sunday, March 13, 2022 11:56 AM

Flintlock76

This VERY interesting background bio from Mark Felton Productions on Vlad the Impaler's just popped up.

I think everyone will find it interesting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e2_EFJLWA6o 

 

Very interesting.  I've been watching Mark Felton for years.

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Posted by Convicted One on Sunday, March 13, 2022 11:42 AM

blue streak 1
Speculation.  Suppose Putin was not and is not being told the whole truth about Ukraine?  Leave it for others to speculate

Just being the cynic that I am,  potentially  that might be universal? The facts  I am seeing in our news appear "scrubbed".

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Posted by Flintlock76 on Sunday, March 13, 2022 11:40 AM

This VERY interesting background bio from Mark Felton Productions on Vlad the Impaler's just popped up.

I think everyone will find it interesting.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e2_EFJLWA6o 

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Sunday, March 13, 2022 3:32 AM
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Posted by BEAUSABRE on Saturday, March 12, 2022 11:11 PM

There are reports from POW's that Putin has reinstituted the use of commissars to "improve morale at the front" via administration of "Stalin's aspirin". I'm taking the claim with a grain of salt, but...

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Saturday, March 12, 2022 10:38 PM

Euclid
I have seen some speculation that since NATO will not allow Ukraine into NATO at this time of their dire need, they may make a deal to join Russia in exchange for ending the attack on them.  It is expected that this will rile NATO because they do not want to see Ukraine be absorbed into Russia.  But yet they failed to help Ukraine because Ukraine would come with the baggage of being in a war with Russia that NATO would have to fight.  This will be very interesting to watch. 
 

Garbage!!

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Posted by JayBee on Saturday, March 12, 2022 9:41 PM

Euclid
I have seen some speculation that since NATO will not allow Ukraine into NATO at this time of their dire need, they may make a deal to join Russia in exchange for ending the attack on them. 

 
I wonder what the person was smoking or injecting when they had that thought. The people who have seen family members shot or killed by artillery fire or rockets won't give up, and if Ukraine surrenders the Ukrainian army will have to suppress their own people on Putin's orders. Remember the Russians deliberately starved 10 million Ukrainians on Stalin's orders. Also three times the Russians agreed to humanitarian evacuation corridors and three times the Russians shelled or fired on civilians trying to flee through those corridors. The only way the Ukrainians will end this war is if the Russians pull back their forces from Ukraine.
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Posted by Euclid on Saturday, March 12, 2022 9:21 PM
I have seen some speculation that since NATO will not allow Ukraine into NATO at this time of their dire need, they may make a deal to join Russia in exchange for ending the attack on them.  It is expected that this will rile NATO because they do not want to see Ukraine be absorbed into Russia.  But yet they failed to help Ukraine because Ukraine would come with the baggage of being in a war with Russia that NATO would have to fight.  This will be very interesting to watch. 
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Posted by blue streak 1 on Saturday, March 12, 2022 9:01 PM

Article about trains in western Europe and how the war is changing things.  may be paywalled.

Europe’s Trains Take Fighters to Ukraine, and Bring Back Refugees - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Saturday, March 12, 2022 8:23 PM

Background.  Remember how the US maintained there were weapons of Mass destruction that Saddam had.  There were a lot of US officials  that were not told the truth.

Speculation.  Suppose Putin was not and is not being told the whole truth about Ukraine?  Leave it for others to speculate.

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Posted by Euclid on Saturday, March 12, 2022 8:12 PM

Convicted One

 

 
Euclid
What I don't understand is why you seem to believe that I disagree with those points.  I have gone to the end of the earth to understand Putin and our reaction to him

 

 

Well, I'm only human. Perhaps I've misjudged the intent of some of your comments that appeared strident on their surface. If that's the case, you have my sincere apology.

There just seems to be such an overwhelminging pro-west spin on the news crafted for our consumption, that I thought I recognized similar patterns in your rhetoric.  (we can send jets and that is just "balancing the inequity", but anything Putin did in response would be escalation) just as a simple illustration

 

No problem.  Thanks for the apology.  I may not have made my point clear enough.  Actually, Putin is now saying that any shipments of arms to help Ukraine are a legitimate target for attack by Russia.  That would inlcude not only aircraft but also the rockets we have been sending them.  
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Posted by 54light15 on Saturday, March 12, 2022 6:32 PM

The forced starvation of the Ukrainians in the 1930s is called the Holodomor. Their holocaust. Not much different from Ireland in the 1840s when the potato crop failed and what crops that were edible were sent to England. 

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Posted by Backshop on Saturday, March 12, 2022 6:28 PM

CMStPnP

 

 
blue streak 1

Read somewhere that when Soviet Union iinvaded Ukraine after the Red revolution the USSR transferred the grain production into collectives.  Production went down so much that the Ukranians almost starved.

 

That is about 50% correct.    The 50% that is missing is halfway through the collectivization disaster.....rumors reached Stalin that "the Rebellious Ukranians" were actually hoarding stockpiles of food and grain and not releasing it to the larger country.    Stalin sent in his stooges whom broke into farms, houses and apartments and confiscated anything that was edible along with removing edible items from all the stores ensuring that starvation would be a form of punishment.    Approx. 3.9 million Ukranians died of starvation the following 2 years.

 

Then there's also the "kulaks" (wealthy peasants) who were shipped to Siberia and Kazakhstan.

Then everyone doesn't understand that Ukrainians HATE Russians.  People say that "they have the same language and heritage".  So did the plantation owners and slaves, just on opposite sides.

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Posted by rixflix on Saturday, March 12, 2022 4:21 PM

Isn't Russia where illegal scrappers steal entire bridges and other infrastructure? "If it's the people's, I'm a people" gone wild. Was that another pesky Doctor Zhivago reference?

Rick

 

 
 

rixflix aka Captain Video. Blessed be Jean Shepherd and all His works!!! Hooray for 1939, the all time movie year!!! I took that ride on the Reading but my Baby caught the Katy and left me a mule to ride.

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Posted by CMStPnP on Saturday, March 12, 2022 3:20 PM

blue streak 1

Read somewhere that when Soviet Union iinvaded Ukraine after the Red revolution the USSR transferred the grain production into collectives.  Production went down so much that the Ukranians almost starved.

That is about 50% correct.    The 50% that is missing is halfway through the collectivization disaster.....rumors reached Stalin that "the Rebellious Ukranians" were actually hoarding stockpiles of food and grain and not releasing it to the larger country.    Stalin sent in his stooges whom broke into farms, houses and apartments and confiscated anything that was edible along with removing edible items from all the stores ensuring that starvation would be a form of punishment.    Approx. 3.9 million Ukranians died of starvation the following 2 years.

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Saturday, March 12, 2022 2:41 PM

Read somewhere that when Soviet Union iinvaded Ukraine after the Red revolution the USSR transferred the grain production into collectives.  Production went down so much that the Ukranians almost starved.

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Posted by JayBee on Saturday, March 12, 2022 2:13 PM

kgbw49

In this whole situation, watch what China does, not what it says.

China is about to become the biggest trading partner of Russia, buying its oil, natural gas, and coal to underwrite the Ukraine invasion.

 

Maybe, China will not breach its commercial deals with Middle Eastern countries for oil. But when it comes time for new contracts sure. However even if that happens, China will have to built fleets of new ships to carry the oil and coal to China. Alternatively they could build pipelines and railways, but you are then talking about something on the order of ten to fifteen years before they are ready due to the vast distances to be covered.

China will do this because it can. It knows that the current US dependency on China is a relationship that is "too big to fail" for the US.

Just like Energy is to Europe. They have turned 180 degrees around and have realized that their survival depends upon weaning themselves off Russian energy. The Green party in Germany who have been stridently against nuclear energy and defense spending announced their support for increased defense spending and will accept the need for some nuclear power until renewables can be increased to cover all Germany's needs.

US balance-of-trade-deficit dollars are funding the expansion of the Chinese military. Those balance-of-trade-deficit dollars will also fund the purchase of energy from Russia. And Chinese businesses will step in where US business pull out - Amazon leaves Russia, Alibaba moves in, for example.

Russia is a very small market for most western companies, and will become even more so as the pull out will devestate the middle class in Russia. It is estimated that eight to ten million Russians will lose their jobs. Also the collapse of the Ruble will reduce the purchasing power of all but the Oligarchs and those few people high in the party. The Russian Central Bank has raised their interest rates to twenty percent which will choke off most bank lending.

Russia and their invasion of Ukraine is a valuable stalking horse for China, occupying America and Europe while they continue their strategic moves for more Chinese hegemony in Eastern Asia and the Western Pacific.

Net result - the Russion war machine will slowly grind on to grind down Ukraine.

There is a line from an old Patrick Swayze movie titled "Next of Kin" that applies to this Ukraine conflict if the status quo continues:

"You ain't seen bad yet, but it's coming." It has been awful so far and it is going to get much worse. The senseless loss of life and the devastation so far are horrendous, and it is going to get much worse with each passing day.

 
That isn't even the half of it. Wait till famine strikes Africa and parts of South Asia, and potentially parts of China.
 
Ukraine is the fifth largest exporter of grain, and Russia is the largest. Ukraine is likely to harvest no more grain than to meet its needs, Russia will find it impossible to get paid for any grain it exports to most countries. With both of these coming to pass, there will not be enough food for the rest of the world's population.
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Posted by Flintlock76 on Saturday, March 12, 2022 12:27 PM

Convicted One

I will confess, however, that it has ocurred to me more than once, how the Union Pacific container theft issue might have been handled differently in Putin's Russia. Angry

 

Interesting to speculate. No country anywhere is immune to crime, but if I lived in Vlad the Impaler's Russia I wouldn't want to try what the container thieves in LA are up to!  

I might find myself drafted and on the front line in Ukraine!

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Posted by Flintlock76 on Saturday, March 12, 2022 12:23 PM

NorthBrit
So whilst the world worries over the use of nuclear weapons,  Russia attacks silently.

Just my opinion, but if Russia attacks with a nerve or any other chemical weapon then the world changes, and not for Russia's betterment. 

The opprobrium they're getting now will be as nothing if they go the chemical warfare route, and there's no way they can hide the fact they've done it. There'll be no "deniability" option as there was over "Yellow Rain" back in the 80's. 

I doubt chemical weapons will be used.  If Russia's troops are as poorly trained as they seem to be chemical weapons could be just as deadly to THEM as they would be to anyone else.

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Posted by Convicted One on Saturday, March 12, 2022 12:18 PM

I will confess, however, that it has ocurred to me more than once, how the Union Pacific container theft issue might have been handled differently in Putin's Russia. Angry

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Posted by NorthBrit on Saturday, March 12, 2022 12:15 PM

It is interesting the arguments over the war in Ukraine.

Personally our family do not trust Russia at all.

Since 2018 Civilians here have been targetted with the Russian nerve agent 'Novichok'.  My wife is one  (of a large number) who has been struck down with the 'agent'.

She has been battling against it for over five years now; and will continue to do so for the rest of her life.

So whilst the world worries over the use of nuclear weapons,  Russia attacks silently.

 

David

 

To the world you are someone.    To someone you are the world

I cannot afford the luxury of a negative thought

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Posted by Convicted One on Saturday, March 12, 2022 12:11 PM

Euclid
What I don't understand is why you seem to believe that I disagree with those points.  I have gone to the end of the earth to understand Putin and our reaction to him

 

Well, I'm only human. Perhaps I've misjudged the intent of some of your comments that appeared strident on their surface. If that's the case, you have my sincere apology.

There just seems to be such an overwhelminging pro-west spin on the news crafted for our consumption, that I thought I recognized similar patterns in your rhetoric.  (we can send jets and that is just "balancing the inequity", but anything Putin did in response would be escalation) just as a simple illustration

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