The designated (off-topic) Ukraine war thread

[Electroliner 1935]

I smell SPIN. As I read this, the lab had specimens of biologicals. It doesn't mean they are weaponizing them, they could be using them to develop defenses against them,

[JayBee]

 

[/quote]

Euclid

US undersecretary of state acknowledges there are biological warfare labs in Ukraine

 

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/03/10/nula-m10.html

 

Yep that is exactly the source that I thought you would quote. By their definition the CDC's labs conducting research into the spread of COVID, particularly by aerosols (aka sneezing) is bio-warfare.Notice how there is no link to the actual speech, which is available on the web. 

[Convicted One]

Euclid

  It seems to me that the only way the war escalates is if Putin escalates it. 

But providing the jets in the first place is not "escalation"?

Point being, we can sit in our armchairs and thump our chests all we want. For some obviously, there is a feel-good associated with that behavior. But for those actually in the front row, they have to be mindful of real world consequences.

[Euclid]

US undersecretary of state acknowledges there are biological warfare labs in Ukraine

 

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/03/10/nula-m10.html

[BaltACD]

blue streak 1

CeASe fire?  Unless I am mistaken the longest cease fire in the world is the 2 Koreas?  Have never heard that they have signed a peace treaty? 

I don't think the USA and the Seminole tribe have ever agreed to a Peace Treaty - and have been having a cease fire for the past century and a half.

[Euclid]

Well, the answer to my question seems to be that we worry that the jet transfer will escalate the war.  It seems to me that the only way the war escalates is if Putin escalates it.  So it seems that Putin can use the threat of escalation to make his adversaries back down from helping each other defeat him.  That is if he is not bluffing. 

 

Why the US rejected Poland's plan to send fighter jets to Ukraine

 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/09/politics/ukraine-russia-poland-fighter-jets/index.html

[Backshop]

JayBee

Russia is now telling the world that the Ukraine has Bio-warfare and Chemical warfare labs supported by the US. The US CIA and DIA think this is a precurser to Russia using chemical weapons in Ukraine as a terror weapon against civilians like they did in Syria. 

There are plenty of useful idiots here that believe whatever Russia says.  It's amazing that they won't believe anything our government or media say, but they'll believe anything Russia says.

[JayBee]

Euclid

 

Ukraine desperately needs the the jets that Poland is offering them.  Why are we prohibiting the deal? Does it violate the terms of some agreement we have with NATO or terms that NATO has within its own doctrine? 

 

Why not send the fighter jets to Ukraine?  Who cares what Putin thinks of it?

 

What Ukraine really wants is anything to get NATO or the US actively fighting Russia. The fact is that the US does not want that, unless or until Russia forces the issue.

Russia is now telling the world that the Ukraine has Bio-warfare and Chemical warfare labs supported by the US. The US CIA and DIA think this is a precurser to Russia using chemical weapons in Ukraine as a terror weapon against civilians like they did in Syria.

Reports on social media from within Russia are reporting that Russian peacekeeping troops are being withdrawn from Nagorno-Karabahk to send to Ukraine.

[JayBee]

CMStPnP

 

I don't know how bombs are classified as Tatical Nukes which are typically limited in range and yield.    The definition used to be limited to artillery shells, land to land short range rockets, back pack nukes, cruise missiles, etc.

The bombs you mention are problematic because a bomb has a range far beyond previous classifications of tactical nukes and over 200 kt  is getting to be very large and would consume a LOT more than a local battlefield it detonated.

 

I am not sure you understand how the B61 nuclear bomb works, just before the bomb is loaded on the airplane the armorer will set the bomb's explosive setting to one of four positions. In the case of the B61 Mod 4 the four settings are 0.3 kilotons, 1.5 kilotons, 10 kilotons, or 45 kilotons. The Mod 3 version has settings ranging from 0.3 to 170 kilotons. The Mod 7 also starts at 0.3 kilotons but the top setting is 340 kilotons. These three versions are available to the US. Also there is a new Mod 13 coming which is an life extension version of the Mod 4.

 

In my opinion using one of these bombs set for anything higher than 1.5 kilotons is using it as a strategic weapon. For reference the Hiroshima bomb was about 15 kilotons, while the Nagasaki bomb was slightly more powerful.

[blue streak 1]

CeASe fire?  Unless I am mistaken the longest cease fire in the world is the 2 Koreas?  Have never heard that they have signed a peace treaty? 

[Convicted One]

Euclid

Why not send the fighter jets to Ukraine?  Who cares what Putin thinks of it?

I'd think that there is likely more going on at the official level, than the press has been made aware of? (therefore we, as consumers of that press, are not fully informed)

[Euclid]

BaltACD

 

 

Euclid

...

 Why not send the fighter jets to Ukraine?  Who cares what Putin thinks of it?

 

 

Putin seems to think that the rest of the world existing is an act of war against Russia.

 

So what?  Everybody knows he is bluffing.  Why worry what he thinks about Poland sending fighter jets to Ukraine?

[BaltACD]

Euclid

...

 Why not send the fighter jets to Ukraine?  Who cares what Putin thinks of it?

Putin seems to think that the rest of the world existing is an act of war against Russia.

[Euclid]

Euclid

Developing news is that Poland will give Ukraine some used fighter jets in a deal where the U.S. replaces those jets with new ones for Poland.  However, this is said to be a delicate move because Poland is not sure how far they can go down this road without Putin considering the plan to be an act of war against Russia.  Coincidentally yesterday, Putin said that the sanctions alone are akin to an act of war against Russia.  

 

When I posted the above 4 days ago, it seemed like a done deal.  But then it began to be seen as having various problems. The deal had involved Poland, Ukraine, and the U.S.  The U.S. was involved because they agreed to “backfill” weapons to Poland to make up for the ones Poland would give to Ukraine.  Apparently, the U.S. began to get nervous about this looking like they were joining the war against Putin.  So, the U.S. pulled out of the deal, but said they had no objection to Poland sending the jets to Ukraine

 

But Poland was also nervous with the idea that the U.S. would pull out and leave Poland vulnerable to Russian vengeance.  So Poland came up with a plan to simply deliver the jets to Ramstein Air Base in Germany, and tell the U.S. they could have the jets to give to Ukraine or to do whatever they want to do with them.  The U.S. told Poland that they disapproved of the plan and refused to take part in it. 

 

Ukraine desperately needs the the jets that Poland is offering them.  Why are we prohibiting the deal? Does it violate the terms of some agreement we have with NATO or terms that NATO has within its own doctrine? 

 

Why not send the fighter jets to Ukraine?  Who cares what Putin thinks of it?

[BaltACD]

rixflix

A seven hour cease fire on this thread! Where are this joint's chiefs-of staff?

Rick

That is a longer ceasefire than has happened in Ukraine.

[rixflix]

A seven hour cease fire on this thread! Where are this joint's chiefs-of staff?

Rick

[Euclid]

Controversy over Sending Fighter Jets to Ukraine:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mb8NI5s57dY

[Leo_Ames]

I didn't watch that video, but I personally wouldn't be too hard on India. They're stuck between a rock and a hard place.

They have an unfriendly neighbor and depend on Russian imports for a large slice of their defense needs [Edit: Make that two unfriendly neighbors, since I forgot all about Pakistan]. So they can't exactly come out and alienate Russia for their own sake since that relationship is helping keep China in check. 

They're also dependent on the west both commercially and for a sizeable percentage of their defense purchases, so they also can't come out and say they support Russia.

So they're basically stuck in the middle, not able to really side with either since alienating one or the other could have dire consequences for them.

I'm not saying it's right for them to not take a stand. Just that it's easy to understand why they're keeping quiet at the UN about this.

[CMStPnP]

JayBee

BTW the Union of Concerned Scientists says that the US posses 1500 B61 bombs each having four selectable yields ranging from 0.3 kilotons to as much as 340 kilotons depending on the Model.  

They are guessing at amounts.    Those are dumb bombs, once upgraded to smart bombs they are classified as strategic not tactical.     Regardless, I would not classify anything over 200kt as tactical either.    And as I said before if there is anything that remains of  the Tactical Nukes they are being phased out or eliminated down to zero is the goal........they are pretty useless.   Advancements in technology on the convential explosives side along with precision guidance has surpased the utility of using the smaller nukes as dumb munitions.  

Putin is the one that came up with the use tatical nukes to de-escalate theory but not mentioned he also stated it would be done in conjunction with a limited strategic missile strike (which I thought against specific cities).    It was never use tactical nukes alone.

I don't know how bombs are classified as Tatical Nukes which are typically limited in range and yield.    The definition used to be limited to artillery shells, land to land short range rockets, back pack nukes, cruise missiles, etc.

The bombs you mention are problematic because a bomb has a range far beyond previous classifications of tactical nukes and over 200 kt  is getting to be very large and would consume a LOT more than a local battlefield it detonated.

[JayBee]

CMStPnP

So how does that work?   Every country abandons NATO and goes it's own way and makes it's own decisions?    I don't see tactical nukes ever being used by NATO other than as an escalation step.   Further I don't see the Russians using a pop gun with a flag that pops out and says "bang!" as a warning (so I see that particular escalation step being skipped).     Far more likely for the Russians to use a small amount of missiles with large warheads as a in a limited first strike warning hitting multiple cities at once or release tactical nukes as a whole to their armed forces vs telling them to try one and see what happens next.

 

Well so far besides the US, Russia, and China, we know that India, Pakistan, Britain, France, and North Korea have nuclear weapons, and most people believe Israel does. Certainly Germany has the capability to produce them all they need is the will. Iran isn't far off from having them. The Non-Proliferation Treaty is like a leaking bucket.

 

As for the Russian tossing a few conventional missiles at NATO cities as a warning, I could see Putin making that mistake, but it would quickly result in the loss of his Navy, or some of his own cities. With Kaliningrad being a likely target. The Russians are not ten feet tall. And Russia has lost its ability to buy microchips. While China hasn't sided against Russia it is telling that they haven't sided with them either.

 

What I found facinating is that of the fifteen countries that were formed after the breakup of the Soviet Union only two supported Russia in the United Nations General Assembly vote which carried no force, Belarus and Russia itself. Ukraine and Georgia voted against Russia, eight abstained, and three didn't show up to vote. Also I found it interesting that when Russia requested help from Kazakstan for troops to fight in Ukraine, Kazakstan said no.

 

BTW the Union of Concerned Scientists says that the US posses 1500 B61 bombs

each having four selectable yields ranging from 0.3 kilotons to as much as 340 kilotons depending on the Model.  

[Euclid]

CMStPnP

Far more likely for the Russians to use a small amount of missiles with large warheads as a in a limited first strike warning hitting multiple cities at once...

If Russia did that, it would invite a massive counterattack from nuclear countries not wanting to be next on Russia’s hit list.  I think the most likely use of nuclear weapons by Russia will be the mini-nukes, and using them in Ukraine.  

[BaltACD]

CMStPnP

 

JayBee

If Russia were to use a nuclear weapon on anybody, small or large, the Non-Proliferation Treaty will be ignored by most countries. 

So how does that work?   Every country abandons NATO and goes it's own way and makes it's own decisions?    I don't see tactical nukes ever being used by NATO other than as an escalation step.   Further I don't see the Russians using a pop gun with a flag that pops out and says "bang!" as a warning (so I see that particular escalation step being skipped).     Far more likely for the Russians to use a small amount of missiles with large warheads as a in a limited first strike warning hitting multiple cities at once or release tactical nukes as a whole to their armed forces vs telling them to try one and see what happens next.

In a manner of speaking they already have 'lit' their nuclear weapon - Chernobyl.  They now occupy the territory around Chernobyl and are reported to have cut the electricty that powers the machienry that keeps the wreckage cool.

[CMStPnP]

Euclid

Here is the opposite point of view:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzgPJeYZaOU

Complete garbage.   The Indians do not want to ruffle Russia's feathers because they have lucrative weapons production licenses for their Tanks and Jet Fighters from Russia.....thats #1.    You can't trust what the Indians say in regards to this conflict.

#2 is Russia at one point wanted to join the NATO alliance and made overtures to that extent (not mentioned in the video).     The Russian protestations on NATO Eastward expansion started in 2007 and were largely fabricated and raised by Mr. Putin himself saying a verbal promise was made and broken but having no evidence anywhere in writing of the promise plus he states the promise was made before he was even in power.    Yet those that proceeded him in power can't tell anyone when exactly this happened.

Tabling the whole NATO expansion business which is a red herring argument.    This conflict would still have happened because Russia did not want Ukraine to be oriented in anyway to the EU, nor did it want a full democracy on it's doorstep.   Especially in a slavic country with past close ties to Russia (ie: they feel the same way about Serbia).   So if Moscow could not put it's own stooge in Ukraine there was going to be conflict.

[CMStPnP]

JayBee

If Russia were to use a nuclear weapon on anybody, small or large, the Non-Proliferation Treaty will be ignored by most countries.

So how does that work?   Every country abandons NATO and goes it's own way and makes it's own decisions?    I don't see tactical nukes ever being used by NATO other than as an escalation step.   Further I don't see the Russians using a pop gun with a flag that pops out and says "bang!" as a warning (so I see that particular escalation step being skipped).     Far more likely for the Russians to use a small amount of missiles with large warheads as a in a limited first strike warning hitting multiple cities at once or release tactical nukes as a whole to their armed forces vs telling them to try one and see what happens next.

[Euclid]

Here is the opposite point of view:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzgPJeYZaOU

 

 

 

[BaltACD]

Speculation on 'the end game'.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-MgZQOkP1yM

[Shadow the Cats owner]

Most of the Russian people alive today do not even remember being apart of the Soviet Union.  They prefer being free Putin's latest law he rammed thru is not going to make him anymore popular in Russia.  Why any citizen of Russia that calls the invasion of the Urkaine a War or Invasion rather than a Liberation of them is thrown in a prison camp for 15 years without trial for crimes against the State.  Think about that 15 years for saying the wrong word in public without even getting the benefit of a trial.  What is next for them oh yeah they adopt the Chinese model of justice just send the estate the bill for the bullet that was used to kill your loved one.  Sooner or later someone in Russia is going to say enough is enough and just start demanding Putin's removal.  That is what the military did in 1991 when they refused to back the hardliners that tried to overthrow Gorbechev in that coup.  It may happen again and if it does it will not be pretty.

[Leo_Ames]

The Russians blew up the AN-225. Longest and heaviest plane ever flown and the biggest plane that's flown multiple times (The Spruce Goose has a larger wingspan and height, but only flew once).

While minor compared to the human toll, it still makes for a sad sight.

[Backshop]

JayBee

If Russia were to use a nuclear weapon on anybody, small or large, the Non-Proliferation Treaty will be ignored by most countries.

 

My thought as well.

[JayBee]

CMStPnP

Good for them, here is the treaty verbage:

https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/text/

Here is the acceptance of it by Germany:

https://treaties.unoda.org/a/npt/germany/RAT/washington

Let me know when you find the section on "sharing of Nuclear weapons" between the United States and Germany because the verbage is pretty tight in the first link.

Also, 2O or less bombs is nothing but symbolic.   Someone probably set that up to scare the Russians, the Germans have to violate the NPT treaty if they strap the bombs on their planes.    The United States has to violate the NPT treaty as well in relinquishing control of the Nukes to Germany.

 

If Russia were to use a nuclear weapon on anybody, small or large, the Non-Proliferation Treaty will be ignored by most countries.