Backshop All those Russians didn't end up where they did accidently. ---------
All those Russians didn't end up where they did accidently. ---------
Agreed.
The worry I have with Russia, is not the use of conventional weapons (and I class nuclear in that), but unconventional ones like nerve agents. We in the U.K. have already had first hand experience in them by Russia.
David
To the world you are someone. To someone you are the world
I cannot afford the luxury of a negative thought
All those Russians didn't end up where they did accidently. The USSR had a deliberate policy of Russification in the 30s-50s. They would deport any ethnic leaders to Siberia and Kazakhstan and force Russians to move in.
Now, they are using that as a ruse to interfere with independent countries internal affairs. The problem is that it seems that many of these Russians (at least in Ukraine) have been there for a few generations and identify more with Ukraine than Russia. I was in Estonia ten years ago and they were very concerned about this, and it was before Putin really consolidated his power.
Here is a sobering thought and a possible 'domino effect'.
Russia attacked Ukraine 'to protect the Russian people living there'.
In Armenia there are around 12,000 Ethnic Russian people
In Azerbaijan around 120,000
In Belarus around 785,000
In Estonia around 323,000
In Georgia around 27,000
In Kazakhstan around 3, 620,000
In Kyrgystan around 365,000
In Latvia around 488,000
In Lithuania around 140,000
In Moldova around 112,000
In Tajikistan around 35,000
In Turkmenistan around 300,000.
In Ukraine around 8,335,000
In Uzbekistan around 750,000
In Moldova (a declared neutral country) there are already an unknown number of Russian soldiers in Transnistria (part of Moldova).
Belarus have already stated (on their television network) they intend to attack Moldova.
One thing to remember. Any foreign soldier steps into Russia - One unhappy Bear
In Serbia the Serbs are looking to rebuild the former Yugoslavia.
In China they watch, until -
A chilling thought.
Time to run trains whilst I can.
blue streak 1 Here is a thought. What happens to all the Ukaranins jammed together and exposed to C-19? Their death rate per million before this war was close to the US reported number at 2400+ / million. It is going to be a petri dish of alpha, delta, omicrom 1 & 2. The refugee camps are going to have to mitigate that as well as all the other suffering.
Here is a thought. What happens to all the Ukaranins jammed together and exposed to C-19? Their death rate per million before this war was close to the US reported number at 2400+ / million. It is going to be a petri dish of alpha, delta, omicrom 1 & 2. The refugee camps are going to have to mitigate that as well as all the other suffering.
Begging the question - is C19 a biological weapon?
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
The Polish border is well covered after Belarus started airlifting Syrian refugees into Belarus and then transported them to the Polish border. The border is now tougher than the US border with Mexico will ever be. Layers of razor wire on steel fencing covered by machine guns in concrete bunkers. Poland increased their army size considerably. The Poles kicked the Soviet Union's butt in the 1920's when Lenin and Stalin decided to expand westward. As they attacked Warsaw, Polish Marshal Jozef Pilsudski pulled off a masterful envelopment of the Russian forces in the Battle of Warsaw fought from the 12th to the 25th of August 1920. Future dictator of the Soviet Union Joseph Stalin, Head Commissar of the Russian army had to flee to avoid capture. The Poles will fight just as hard as the Ukrainians.
BaltACD Nuclear weapons. That is what I mean by escalation. Putin is now reported to be recruiting Syrians with experience fighting in cities. My take on this is that he is trying to reduce the number of Mother Russia's sons who are dying trying to take Ukrainian cities. Too many funerals in Russia could add to his problems at home. Syrians could also turn on him. You get what you pay for, obviously, the Russian forces are inadequate for what they are being paid - is he going to pay for 200K Syrians and if he does - who is left in Syria.
Nuclear weapons. That is what I mean by escalation. Putin is now reported to be recruiting Syrians with experience fighting in cities. My take on this is that he is trying to reduce the number of Mother Russia's sons who are dying trying to take Ukrainian cities. Too many funerals in Russia could add to his problems at home.
Nuclear weapons. That is what I mean by escalation.
Syrians could also turn on him. You get what you pay for, obviously, the Russian forces are inadequate for what they are being paid - is he going to pay for 200K Syrians and if he does - who is left in Syria.
If those syrians come into Ukraine they are liable to spill over into other countries especially Poland/
JayBee Euclid I certainly agree that Putin is escalating his action. I think he will go far beyond just invading Ukraine. I think he believes his fight is with NATO, and taking Ukraine is just a small detail along the way to a much larger objective. But when I say our side is concerned about the risk of escalation, I don’t mean just the ramping up of violence committed by Putin. I am referring to an escalation of the friction between NATO/U.S. and Putin over sending fighters jets to Ukraine. That would be the risk of an all-out hot war with Russia, possibly culminating in the use of Nuclear weapons. That is what I mean by escalation. Putin is now reported to be recruiting Syrians with experience fighting in cities. My take on this is that he is trying to reduce the number of Mother Russia's sons who are dying trying to take Ukrainian cities. Too many funerals in Russia could add to his problems at home.
Euclid I certainly agree that Putin is escalating his action. I think he will go far beyond just invading Ukraine. I think he believes his fight is with NATO, and taking Ukraine is just a small detail along the way to a much larger objective. But when I say our side is concerned about the risk of escalation, I don’t mean just the ramping up of violence committed by Putin. I am referring to an escalation of the friction between NATO/U.S. and Putin over sending fighters jets to Ukraine. That would be the risk of an all-out hot war with Russia, possibly culminating in the use of Nuclear weapons. That is what I mean by escalation.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
Heard a comment on TV, without verifaction, that the Russians have experienced 11K dead and 280 helicopters destroyed to date.
If those are factual numbers - it doesn't speak highly of the Russian military.
BaltACD It should have been in 2008 with Georgia and in 2000 with Chechnya. Putin wants nothing more than to reform the USSR and the Warsaw Pact dependencies. He wants to be seen as Joe Stalin the Second, with the emphasis on cruelty.
It should have been in 2008 with Georgia and in 2000 with Chechnya. Putin wants nothing more than to reform the USSR and the Warsaw Pact dependencies. He wants to be seen as Joe Stalin the Second, with the emphasis on cruelty.
BackshopI don't like the word "escalate". I prefer "stand up to". Nothing NATO has done has been an escalation. Putin thinks that anything that isn't a surrender is an escalation. It doesn't fit the definition but it fits his political agenda. Sooner or later (hopefully sooner), Putin is going to have to be stood up to. In hindsight, it should've been in 2014 when he took the Crimea. The longer you wait, the harder it's going to be. Either his nuclear threat is a well practiced bluff, or it's the talk of someone completely crazy. Either way, he needs to go.
EuclidBut when I say our side is concerned about the risk of escalation, I don’t mean just the ramping up of violence committed by Putin. I am referring to an escalation of the friction between NATO/U.S. and Putin over sending fighters jets to Ukraine. That would be the risk of an all-out hot war with Russia, possibly culminating in the use of Nuclear weapons. That is what I mean by escalation.
I fear that the west may dither and do what was done back in the late thirties and let poor Ukraine get destroyed by fearing that any effort to push back against the Russian invaision would give Putin justification for futher aggression. BULLY's threaten anyone who dares to try to stop them. They have to be shown that they can not intimidate before they stop. Putin is just a classic example. I hope that NATO wakes up and unleases its air capability to control the Ukraine airspace.
This subject has really found interest.
I don't like the word "escalate". I prefer "stand up to". Nothing NATO has done has been an escalation. Putin thinks that anything that isn't a surrender is an escalation. It doesn't fit the definition but it fits his political agenda. Sooner or later (hopefully sooner), Putin is going to have to be stood up to. In hindsight, it should've been in 2014 when he took the Crimea. The longer you wait, the harder it's going to be. Either his nuclear threat is a well practiced bluff, or it's the talk of someone completely crazy. Either way, he needs to go.
Leo_Ames Hard to imagine a few aging Mig-29's that are obviously cut off from parts suppliers making a worthwhile difference for Ukraine. Good deal for Poland though. They would get new F-16's out of the deal, planes which could actually be kept in the air going forward unlike the situation facing Poland's aging Mig-29 fleet from here on out. I suspect ground based weapon systems that are rugged, simple to use, and not requiring complex maintenance and personnel to keep it serviceable are what would constitute useful military aid at this point (i.e., weapons like Stingers). Old Mig-29's would just yield some positive press in the west and maybe get a few pilots killed going up against a foe that probably has control of the air space, before Russia destroys the remainder on the ground. Guerrilla tactics on the ground seem to be what's working here. Fancy jets at this point for Ukraine are just going to be sitting ducks. Especially without safe havens to escape to between missions like China enjoyed with their Mig-15's during Korea, which none of these countries are willing to provide.
Hard to imagine a few aging Mig-29's that are obviously cut off from parts suppliers making a worthwhile difference for Ukraine.
Good deal for Poland though. They would get new F-16's out of the deal, planes which could actually be kept in the air going forward unlike the situation facing Poland's aging Mig-29 fleet from here on out.
I suspect ground based weapon systems that are rugged, simple to use, and not requiring complex maintenance and personnel to keep it serviceable are what would constitute useful military aid at this point (i.e., weapons like Stingers).
Old Mig-29's would just yield some positive press in the west and maybe get a few pilots killed going up against a foe that probably has control of the air space, before Russia destroys the remainder on the ground.
Guerrilla tactics on the ground seem to be what's working here. Fancy jets at this point for Ukraine are just going to be sitting ducks. Especially without safe havens to escape to between missions like China enjoyed with their Mig-15's during Korea, which none of these countries are willing to provide.
I agree.
Backshop Euclid I don’t believe that would happen. Certainly we could do that. But we have telegraphed that we are very cautious about the causing an escalation. So that suggests that we would certainly not escalate over just the loss of some aircraft. We especially would not do that when the escalation would lead toward an all-out war with Russia all the way up to nuclear exchange. Thank you for following the prescribed party line. The only country doing the escalating is Russia. First, they were just "protecting" the breakaway regions. Then, they were saving Ukraine from "Nazis". Then they attacked from a third country-Belarus. Then they brought in Chechen mercenaries. Now they want to bring in Syrian mercenaries. Notice that, all of a sudden, Russian fighters aren't buzzing NATO aircraft?
Euclid
I don’t believe that would happen. Certainly we could do that. But we have telegraphed that we are very cautious about the causing an escalation. So that suggests that we would certainly not escalate over just the loss of some aircraft. We especially would not do that when the escalation would lead toward an all-out war with Russia all the way up to nuclear exchange.
Thank you for following the prescribed party line. The only country doing the escalating is Russia. First, they were just "protecting" the breakaway regions. Then, they were saving Ukraine from "Nazis". Then they attacked from a third country-Belarus. Then they brought in Chechen mercenaries. Now they want to bring in Syrian mercenaries. Notice that, all of a sudden, Russian fighters aren't buzzing NATO aircraft?
JayBeeIt looks like the Russian Air Force isn't as formidable a foe as previously thought by the West.
From what I've been able to gather, which isn't much more than anyone else, Russian command, control, and co-ordination between combat arms (air, artillery, armor and infantry, to say nothing of logistical support) has been absolutely awful. I'm wondering if they've been more concerned with putting on a good show in Red Square once a year than they've been with anything else.
Then there was a Czech fellow I worked with back in the 80's. He told me that during his mandatory military service in the Czech Army Warsaw Pact combined manuevers were one big cluster-(ahem.) And the Russians were the worst!
Take it for what it's worth.
On the other hand there's a creepy old maxim that comes from Frederick the Great that's been in the back of my head lately:
"It's a far easier thing to kill Russians than it is to beat them."
I believe you're thinking of Poland's F-35 order that was placed a couple of years ago, that I believe is slated to eventually replace their Mig-29's and Su-22's.
Poland was upgrading Mig-29's not long ago and forecast at that time to have spares for three years. So the clock is fast ticking down today, I imagine. And Russia and China aren't going to be available to offer further support for their unique components.
Most of those other Mig-29's in Eastern European air forces like Slovakia's are unserviceable hangar queens for the most part, parked due to budget woes through the years until deals for modern western replacements come to fruition. About the best they could do is provide Ukraine with some spare parts for Poland's active fleet, if this deal actually gels.
Romania only has aging Mig-21's that are slowly being replaced by almost as old F-16's from Portugal.
That said, if this deal actually would help, I hope they succeed in getting these planes. I envision though the air space being the one part of Ukraine that Russia actually holds a fair bit of control over, so I have my doubts that their transfer would be of much help.
Leo_Ames Hard to imagine a few aging Mig-29's that are obviously cut off from parts suppliers making a worthwhile difference for Ukraine. Good deal for Poland though. They would get new F-16's out of the deal, planes which could actually be kept in the air going forward unlike the situation facing Poland's aging Mig-29 fleet from here on out.
Poland actually has F-15E Strike Eagles on order already.
In addition to Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria also have MiG-29s. But each fleet has slightly different upgrades so that they can work with Western aircraft. Poland has the largest fleet, twenty seven aircraft.
I suspect ground based weapon systems that are rugged, simple to use, and not requiring complex maintenance and personnel to keep it serviceable are what would constitute useful military aid at this point (i.e., weapons like Stingers). Old Mig-29's would just yield some positive press in the west and maybe get a few pilots killed going up against a foe that probably has control of the air space, before Russia destroys the remainder on the ground. Guerrilla tactics on the ground seem to be what's working here. Fancy jets at this point for Ukraine are just going to be sitting ducks. Especially without safe havens to escape to between missions like China enjoyed with their Mig-15's during Korea, which none of these countries are willing to provide.
NorthBritPersonally I do not worry about any nuke attack. Russia could have done that a long time ago.
People forget as well we have a portable ABM system called THAAD. Which I believe it permanently deployed in Romania to protect Europe and the United States against Iranians when they get their nuke capability.
Euclid Backshop Euclid Backshop Putin is blowing smoke. Every time he escalates, he blames others. Poland is a full member of NATO. Russia doesn't dare attack them. I don’t believe that would happen. Certainly we could do that. But we have telegraphed that we are very cautious about the causing an escalation. So that suggests that we would certainly not escalate over just the loss of some aircraft. We especially would not do that when the escalation would lead toward an all-out war with Russia all the way up to nuclear exchange.
Backshop Euclid Backshop Putin is blowing smoke. Every time he escalates, he blames others. Poland is a full member of NATO. Russia doesn't dare attack them.
Euclid Backshop Putin is blowing smoke. Every time he escalates, he blames others. Poland is a full member of NATO. Russia doesn't dare attack them.
Backshop Putin is blowing smoke. Every time he escalates, he blames others. Poland is a full member of NATO. Russia doesn't dare attack them.
Leo_AmesHard to imagine a few aging Mig-29's that are obviously cut off from parts suppliers making a worthwhile difference for Ukraine. Good deal for Poland though. They would get new F-16's out of the deal, planes which could actually be kept in the air going forward unlike the situation facing Poland's aging Mig-29 fleet from here on out. I suspect ground based weapon systems that are rugged, simple to use, and not requiring complex maintenance and personnel to keep it serviceable are what would constitute useful military aid at this point (i.e., weapons like Stingers). Old Mig-29's would just yield some positive press in the west and maybe get a few pilots killed going up against a foe that probably has control of the air space, before Russia destroys the remainder on the ground. Guerrilla tactics on the ground seem to be what's working here. Fancy jets at this point for Ukraine are just going to be sitting ducks. Especially without safe havens to escape to between missions like China enjoyed with their Mig-15's during Korea, which none of these countries are willing to provide.
Ukraine probably has some spares and the maintenance technology to keep the Mig's flying they also have pilots that have been trained in flying the Migs. They would have no parts, no maintenance knowledge or tools as well as no pilots trained in the operation of any US equipment. The Ukraine Air Force can actually use the Migs as opposed to anything the US could offer.
Leo_AmesHard to imagine a few aging Mig-29's that are obviously cut off from parts suppliers making a worthwhile difference for Ukraine.
Well first the Russian ADA is not absolute there are significant gaps in it because Ukraine is so large and the Russians can only bring the portable stuff with them on an invasion and they have to keep moving the ADA umbrella, which will expose more gaps. Second you can fly under it if your skilled as a pilot that is why you saw the Russian jets early in the war so close to the ground evading the Ukranian radar. They would not be impotent with the old jets and could score some significant hits based on how the Russians are not using tactical formations and have stalled everywhere.
Most NATO pilots in war games in Germany fly under 500 feet sometimes as low as 250 feet and the Germans back in the day had to put up with the ear splitting noise of flying that low at high speed. It really scares the hell out of you when one flys past because you do not hear it until it is well past you.
Euclid I would not predict what Putin might do. But say he attacked those planes that were headed for Ukraine while they were still in Poland; what would we do? What would NATO do?
I would not predict what Putin might do. But say he attacked those planes that were headed for Ukraine while they were still in Poland; what would we do? What would NATO do?
EuclidSo that suggests that we would certainly not escalate over just the loss of some aircraft.
See: Lusitania.
Convicted OneWhat would we do if Putin was supplying war planes to a suddenly antagonistic or even suspiciously reticent Mexico? Or, what DID we do when Khrushchev was supplying missiles to Cuba?
If they were using them to break up drug and organized crime cartels probably nothing.
Russian missiles in Cuba? In the end we worked a deal. "YOU take the missiles out of Cuba, and WE'LL take the Pershing missiles out of Turkey."
Everybody was happy.
EuclidI would not predict what Putin might do. But say he attacked those planes that were headed for Ukraine while they were still in Poland; what would we do? What would NATO do?
What would we do if Putin was supplying war planes to a suddenly antagonistic or even suspiciously reticent Mexico?
Or, what DID we do when Khrushchev was supplying missiles to Cuba?
Euclid Backshop Putin is blowing smoke. Every time he escalates, he blames others. Poland is a full member of NATO. Russia doesn't dare attack them. I would not predict what Putin might do. But say he attacked those planes that were headed for Ukraine while they were still in Poland; what would we do? What would NATO do?
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