Speaking of which, they certainly have never felt bound to convention. (craziest Soviet Machines)
CMStPnP BaltACD How much of the Russian military is involved in invading Ukraine? He has pulled in units from the far East. How much is anyones guess but last estimate I saw was approx 70% of their land forces, they stripped away significant amount of units from their far Eastern bases. They still are concerned with China invading.....regardless of their alliance. So I have my doubts they will pull more from the East. Despite the Dog and Pony show alliance with China. Russia and China hate each other and that alliance only goes as far as each nations self interest to support each other. There is no real bond of friendship between the countries. Somewhat like a marriage based on business reasons vs love.
BaltACD How much of the Russian military is involved in invading Ukraine?
How much of the Russian military is involved in invading Ukraine?
He has pulled in units from the far East. How much is anyones guess but last estimate I saw was approx 70% of their land forces, they stripped away significant amount of units from their far Eastern bases. They still are concerned with China invading.....regardless of their alliance. So I have my doubts they will pull more from the East. Despite the Dog and Pony show alliance with China. Russia and China hate each other and that alliance only goes as far as each nations self interest to support each other. There is no real bond of friendship between the countries. Somewhat like a marriage based on business reasons vs love.
JayBee NATO isn't ready for a war with Russia. Earlier this week a pair of Russian jets entered Romanian airspace and the Romanians sent up one of their jets to warn them off. It was a MiG-21 dating from the early 1970's, it had a mechanical failure and crashed into the Black Sea. The Romanians sent a rescue helicopter to look for the pilot, a Russian built Mil-8. It crashed in poor weather, and the crews of both aircraft were reportedly lost. Many of the NATO countries are operating old obsolete aircraft well past their Best By Date. Even a country like Germany has let their military decay, the 100 bln Euro budget just announced will not expand their forces, just improve readiness. Germany used to have 2800 Leopard 2 tanks, which were roughly equivilent to earlier M1 Abrams tanks. They only have about 800 left. And all their air defense units like Gepard, mobile AAA, are gone, phased out as no longer needed.
NATO isn't ready for a war with Russia. Earlier this week a pair of Russian jets entered Romanian airspace and the Romanians sent up one of their jets to warn them off. It was a MiG-21 dating from the early 1970's, it had a mechanical failure and crashed into the Black Sea. The Romanians sent a rescue helicopter to look for the pilot, a Russian built Mil-8. It crashed in poor weather, and the crews of both aircraft were reportedly lost. Many of the NATO countries are operating old obsolete aircraft well past their Best By Date. Even a country like Germany has let their military decay, the 100 bln Euro budget just announced will not expand their forces, just improve readiness. Germany used to have 2800 Leopard 2 tanks, which were roughly equivilent to earlier M1 Abrams tanks. They only have about 800 left. And all their air defense units like Gepard, mobile AAA, are gone, phased out as no longer needed.
Yes they have declined since the Cold War and so has the United States but your neglecting that a lot of the decline was absorbed by our better technology and the deteriorating Russian Armed Forces. NATO is more than a match for Russia and any conventional war with Russia will be over in a matter of weeks. Interestingly, same assessment for war with the Soviet Union back in the 1970's-1980s'. The Soviets had a very unrealistic goal to reach the French border in 4-5 days from time of invasion (whats with these 4-5 day timetables in the East?). Then another 4-5 days to conquer France. They would have pummeled West Germany with tactical nukes to achieve that end. Got to tell you from experience that no way would an Army in NBC protective posture cruise across West Germany in 4-5 days. It is unrealistic even without all that garbage on. However Soviets goal was never to win WWIII it was to get as much land and then negotiate an end to the war, they knew they could not hold up against NATO militaries as well as their Economic output. So they had to get territory very quick and present peace negotiations from a position of strength of having most of Europe invaded.
Is 1940 repeating itself. Roosevelt understood that the people did not want the U.S. in a war in Europe and Hitler felt free to take over his neighbors. His actions let Japan attack China. Then in '41, Japan thought they could get away with attacking us and that was the wound that brought the U.S. into WWII. I hope we don't wait too long to stand up to Putin and call his bluff. Unchecked, he may dominate Ukraine and then sit back and say he has accomplished his goals. He will say, "I will sell you oil and gas," and hope every one forgives him but wants them to fear him just as his minions fear him, the KGB man. I think we are seeing him bluffing and hope we act sooned rather than later while there is some Ukraine to save. If we keep the airspace free of Russian aircraft, it appears the Ukrainians may be able to defeat the invaders.
Now for trains. Looks like the Ukraine Railroads are moving a lot of people expiditiously. Wonder what AMTRAK could do if NYC needed evacuation?
EuclidAre you factoring in the possiblity of such a conventional war going nuclear?
Depends on the part of the Nuclear War. After the last missile has detonated 62% of the Russian population of 141 million is dead which is significantly more than the United States. Don't have projections for deaths due to fallout / nuclear winter. However temps for Nuclear Winter are projected to be in the range of -104 F for the latitude Chicago is at and will remain so for the better part of a year. Our weather system in the Northern Hemisphere does not really mix a lot with the Southern Hemisphere so the Southern Hemisphere will have some after effects but will be considered a lot better off than the Northern Hemisphere as long as no nukes are detonated in Australia or the Southern Hemisphere.
All life ending on Earth is a myth though. High probability the nuclear war is survivable in the Southern Hemisphere at least. Also, who knows if the projections for the North are correct or accurate to that draconian level.
Euclid Backshop Although I hope it doesn't happen, if Russia and NATO got into an all-out conventional war, Russia would lose badly. Are you factoring in the possiblity of such a conventional war going nuclear?
Backshop Although I hope it doesn't happen, if Russia and NATO got into an all-out conventional war, Russia would lose badly.
Are you factoring in the possiblity of such a conventional war going nuclear?
BackshopAlthough I hope it doesn't happen, if Russia and NATO got into an all-out conventional war, Russia would lose badly.
We all know the parable about the scorpion convincing a turtle to give it a ride across a river because it could not swim, and the scorpion stings the turtle half way across and the turtle asks as they are drowning "Why did you do that?" and the scorpion responds "Because I am a scorpion."
Russia is a scorpion and the fools who agreed to that agreement in 1994 wanted to believe that Russia had changed.
A scorpion is a scorpion.
No different than when you read the stories about zookeepers getting mauled by a lion or tiger that they have "befriended".
Mixing in a couple of other cliches, history is repeating itself becuase leopards don't change their spots, and we wish that truth away at our own peril.
Russia is, always was, and always will be, Russia.
The pertinent document:is the 1994 Budapest Memorandum
The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland,
Welcoming the accession of Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as non-nuclear-weapon State,
Taking into account the commitment of Ukraine to eliminate all nuclear weapons from its territory within a specified period of time,
Noting the changes in the world-wide security situation, including the end of the Cold War, which have brought about conditions for deep reductions in nuclear forces.
Confirm the following:
1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.
2. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.
3. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.
4. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon State party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used.
5. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm, in the case of Ukraine, their commitment not to use nuclear weapons against any non-nuclear-weapon State party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, except in the case of an attack on themselves, their territories or dependent territories, their armed forces, or their allies, by such a State in association or alliance with a nuclear-weapon State.
6. Ukraine, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America will consult in the event a situation arises that raises a question concerning these commitments.
NorthBritA bigger fear is which other Countries side with them. We know Serbia now supports Russia. How many more?
I believe that is a very valid concern. We have this tendency to assume that the whole rest of the world should want to be just like us. And I doubt that is completely accurate.
When we say "democracy", some hear "dogwhistles" of a different form, visions of burning police precincts, and other forms of activism that are not universally popular (pick up any newspaper) , even here in this country for that matter.
So, my point is, those who oppose the proliferation of our ideology, do so feeling as justified as we do in pushing it. It is precarious at best trying to force fit the narrative into a "good guys vs bad guys" frame of reference
The talk of NATO should get involved in Ukraine is not realistic (imo).
The break up of the Soviet Union has brought a sense of peace. So much so that countries have cut back on weapons, munitions etc. giving a false sense of security.
I hark back to 1938/39 when Germany wanted to 'reclaim' their land. Russia is doing exactly the same.
Prior to that Britain was rearming for war in 1936; to be prepared by 1941. The attack on Poland brought the war forward (as we know) but Britain was not fully prepared for it.
Jump forward to 2020s. Britain has slowly being rearming again. Other NATO countries are also. The whole scenario cannot be seen as aggressive, but now can be.
The fear of a Soviet 'domino effect' in attacking more countries is realistic.
A bigger fear is which other Countries side with them. We know Serbia now supports Russia. How many more?
I think I shall run a few trains whilst I can.
David
To the world you are someone. To someone you are the world
I cannot afford the luxury of a negative thought
charlie hebdo Euclid There is something else that has not been talked about much. We have all heard of how NATO works and how we cannot defend Ukraine because they are not in NATO. This is the agreement. But there is another agreement that seems to be forgotten. That is the agreement that we and NATO made with Ukraine, that in exchange for Ukraine giving up their nukes in order to make the world safer, we and NATO would defend Ukraine against Russian aggression. What about that agreement? My understanding was that when the old CCP dissolved, Ukraine signed an agreement with Russia to give up nukes.
Euclid There is something else that has not been talked about much. We have all heard of how NATO works and how we cannot defend Ukraine because they are not in NATO. This is the agreement. But there is another agreement that seems to be forgotten. That is the agreement that we and NATO made with Ukraine, that in exchange for Ukraine giving up their nukes in order to make the world safer, we and NATO would defend Ukraine against Russian aggression. What about that agreement?
My understanding was that when the old CCP dissolved, Ukraine signed an agreement with Russia to give up nukes.
Russian weapons systems are not up to ours in most ways or that of the rest of NATO members.
Flintlock76At the moment I'm guessing he's flailing around not knowing WHAT to do.
I doubt that. I think he is supremely confident of his every move even if he is wrong about some of them. We can stop Putin in a conventional war, but in a nuclear war, we can easily lose along with Putin. Putin's overconfidence is our danger.
JayBee Even a country like Germany has let their military decay, the 100 bln Euro budget just announced will not expand their forces, just improve readiness. Germany used to have 2800 Leopard 2 tanks, which were roughly equivilent to earlier M1 Abrams tanks. They only have about 800 left. And all their air defense units like Gepard, mobile AAA, are gone, phased out as no longer needed.
Once the Russians were gone from their eastern border, and even better would have to go through Poland before they could get to them it's pretty obvious they got lazy and figured they didn't have to try anymore.
The US Marine Corps is bigger than the German Army, for example.
Surprise! The world's still a dangerous place.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
BaltACDPutin with his actions is trying his best to incite WW III
At the moment I'm guessing he's flailing around not knowing WHAT to do. He never expected the world-wide reaction he's gotten I'm sure, in addition to finding out his military forces are no-where near as good as he thought they were.
EuclidJust to be clear, I am not advocating a No-Fly Zone. On the contrary, I am certain that it would lead us quickly into an all-out war with Russia.
Putin with his actions is trying his best to incite WW III
While I see where you're going with that, they're all NATO members. NATO would have no choice but to come to their defense or have NATO fall apart and risk Russia growing ever closer one nation at a time until they're at the doorstep of countries like Germany. Hopefully Putin realizes that, despite their past history as part of the Soviet Union that Putin seems to be fantazing about reassembling by force.
With Finland though, the same delimma protecting Russia's entry into the Ukraine would be at play. There's no formal obligation to militarily come to their defense and there would be no desire to risk a far deadlier situation by voluntarily coming to their aid with direct military intervention.
The line drawn in the sand is going to have to be when/if Russia attacks a NATO member. Both Finland and Sweden are starting to wake up to this reality after their decades of little interest in joining the defense alliance, with public opinion polls and politicans quickly switching to favoring signing up.
Leo_Ames Hard to imagine them attacking NATO countries. I imagine the country most at risk of experiencing what Ukraine is now going through would be Finland.
Hard to imagine them attacking NATO countries. I imagine the country most at risk of experiencing what Ukraine is now going through would be Finland.
I'd be more concerned about the Baltic States, Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania.
This is assuming there isn't a coup d'etat in Russian to remove Putin. This war's not popular there at all, especially considering most of the world's against them with the economic sanctions. Russians have a pretty good standard of living now, in fact the point of farthest German penetration into Moscow in 1941 is marked by an Ikea furniture store! The sanctions have a distinct possibility of reducing that standard of living to that of a Third World country, or worse.
It could happen. I remember in 1964 when Nikita Krushchev went to bed one night as the "Big Cheese" and woke up the next morning to find himself out of a job. Shocked everyone in the West as well.
The latest concerning Russian oil exports:
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/white-house/white-house-has-lost-control-on-the-hill-over-russian-oil-ban
The Ukraine military is going to have to surrender at some point. Russia will absolutely destroy every last building in Ukraine if necessary. Moldova will fall without even a burp. The West has to hope that the Ukraine military and the Guerrilla war that follows ties Russia up for 6 months to a year. To give time for the West to gear up. Most likely Russia will next attack Poland or Lithuania or both. Latvia and Estonia are not as urgent for him. Russia will try and neutralize Germany by trying to make a deal with them over Energy, and thus weaken NATO. This will allow him to eventually take Romania and Bulgaria.
Suggestion for a video to watch Peter Ziehan
A website with little or no BS covering the current situation in Ukraine.
understandingwar.org
What is currently happening is Cold, Brutal, Heartless, Realpolitik in action. Something the World hasn't seen on this scale since WW2.
kgbw49 A no fly zone over a country that is almost the size of Texas. The number of planes and the number of tankers needed would be enormous. And it won't make much difference in the outcome. The siege of each major city will continue. Russian artillery will continue to bombard at will. Resupply of food, water and ammo will still be cut off. And are we really going to shoot down Russian aircraft in air-to-air combat?
A no fly zone over a country that is almost the size of Texas. The number of planes and the number of tankers needed would be enormous. And it won't make much difference in the outcome. The siege of each major city will continue. Russian artillery will continue to bombard at will. Resupply of food, water and ammo will still be cut off. And are we really going to shoot down Russian aircraft in air-to-air combat?
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