Common sense is enough for most of the world (Edit: Since I said this without any intention of being snide, I want to stress I'm not saying that to suggest anything about you, personally).
If Ukraine was responsible as they pulled back in the wake of Russia's advance, Moscow would've blown the lid off of it as they moved in just as Germany did the mass murder of thousands of Polish POW's by Soviet forces during Germany's invasion of the Soviet Union. Was a propaganda win for Germany when those mass graves were discovered and they even got the Red Cross involved to document it.
Instead, the evidence of these crimes are being discovered by advancing Ukrainian forces as Russia retreats and often also by western journalists that are alongside them documenting what's going on. Not to mention spy satellites discovering evidence of mass graves cropping up on Ukraine soil in Russian controlled areas, etc.
While there's no way to prosecute Putin and such, the evidence is pretty clear cut on which side is responsible for the vast bulk of the horrors that have been going on.
I think Red Cross and other agencies are moving in to document these war crimes. And more needs to happen than just give our thoughts and prayers to the victims' families.
Euclid Well that was my first reaction exactly. Why would Poland want or need nukes to stop Putin when they and NATO will be more than capable of stopping Putin with NATO convential warfare? I was told (6th post from top of page) that the reason Poland needed nukes was just for deterrance. The presense of nukes would deter Russia from attacking, and that would prevent a conventional war that would happen without the nukes deterring Russia. I was not conviced that would be the outcome.
Well that was my first reaction exactly. Why would Poland want or need nukes to stop Putin when they and NATO will be more than capable of stopping Putin with NATO convential warfare?
I was told (6th post from top of page) that the reason Poland needed nukes was just for deterrance. The presense of nukes would deter Russia from attacking, and that would prevent a conventional war that would happen without the nukes deterring Russia. I was not conviced that would be the outcome.
Another excellent video interview with Justin Bronk of the RUSI on Ward Carroll's channel covering the air war over Ukraine and other parts of the war.
Justin Bronk Interview
EuclidI don’t think what happened then is at all applicable to the circumstances today. Answer me this: Say Poland had nukes intended to deter an invasion and Russia started an invasion of Poland with conventional weapons just like they did in Ukraine. What exactly would Poland do? I am looking for a detailed likely scenario.
First the scenario would never happen with Poland being a member of NATO as well as now Poland advancing orders for M1 tanks. Russia understands tanks and Armored warfare clearly and once Poland has it's armored divisions stood up with modern equipment along with the NATO contribution. Russia is not going to cross the border.
The scenario of nukes would never happen and there are way too many variables to predict who would do what even if it did happen. I think Poland would use nukes if it felt it faced a repeat of it's treatment in WWII. No question about that. Right now Poland is looking at Russia as roughly equal to a Nazi regime.....so their current feelings are understandable.
Since tactical nukes have never been used, nobody really knows what would happen if they were employed. This is my opinion based on facts, unless one believes in mind reading.
Interesting and seems like recent on the street interviews with citizens in Russia about what they think. Unusually candid, given the recent laws passed there which some refer to in the interviews. Also interesting not many mention NATO but seemingly blame their government.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9PgRHmnBGE
CMStPnP Euclid I don’t think what happened then is at all applicable to the circumstances today. Answer me this: Say Poland had nukes intended to deter an invasion and Russia started an invasion of Poland with conventional weapons just like they did in Ukraine. What exactly would Poland do? I am looking for a detailed likely scenario. First the scenario would never happen with Poland being a member of NATO... ...Russia is not going to cross the border. The scenario of nukes would never happen and there are way too many variables to predict who would do what even if it did happen. I think Poland would use nukes if it felt it faced a repeat of it's treatment in WWII. No question about that.
Euclid I don’t think what happened then is at all applicable to the circumstances today. Answer me this: Say Poland had nukes intended to deter an invasion and Russia started an invasion of Poland with conventional weapons just like they did in Ukraine. What exactly would Poland do? I am looking for a detailed likely scenario.
First the scenario would never happen with Poland being a member of NATO...
...Russia is not going to cross the border.
The scenario of nukes would never happen and there are way too many variables to predict who would do what even if it did happen. I think Poland would use nukes if it felt it faced a repeat of it's treatment in WWII. No question about that.
Euclid How can you predict the scenario of nukes would never happen, and yet claim there are way too many variable to predict who would do what?
Backshop Euclid How can you predict the scenario of nukes would never happen, and yet claim there are way too many variable to predict who would do what? While we all have our views, we are amateurs at this. I can tell from responses that there are a handful here who take an interest in military affairs and history. You keep bringing up hypotheticals, which means people answer with their best estimate. Then you continually debunk them or ask more questions without regard of what they answered. Maybe you should go and find yourself a dedicated military history forum. Sorry I can't steer you to one, because the one that I used to frequent was shut down about two years ago by the publisher who ran it.
While we all have our views, we are amateurs at this. I can tell from responses that there are a handful here who take an interest in military affairs and history. You keep bringing up hypotheticals, which means people answer with their best estimate. Then you continually debunk them or ask more questions without regard of what they answered. Maybe you should go and find yourself a dedicated military history forum. Sorry I can't steer you to one, because the one that I used to frequent was shut down about two years ago by the publisher who ran it.
I think Euclid was simply questioning the responses given by CMStPnP. No one, not even experts know what might happen if tactical nuclear weapons were introduced into this conflict. Nor can anyone make a prediction with much certitude if US forces in Poland or the Baltic states (which I believe are a more likely target for Russian aggression than Poland) were known to have nukes.
My points are...
1. He is taking this conversation to a higher level than a forum not specifically focused on the matter can discuss it.
2. Poland or the Baltic states will never have their own nukes. They may be on their soil but they would be controlled by the US. This just keeps them handier than having to ship them from somewhere else. It also sends a signal to Russia.
3. When you keep bringing up hypotheticals, there is no right or wrong answer, only opinions.
4. Everyone here knows that Euclid likes arguing just for the sake of arguing.
5. The US isn't under its "greatest threat ever". That was probably December 11th, 1941. Germany had just declared war on us and already controlled almost all of mainland Europe and was pushing the Russians back. Japan had just sunk or damaged our battle fleet and was running rampant in the Far East. There was a real chance that we could've lost WW2 at that time. We've known for 70 years that we were the main target of Russian/Soviet nukes. Somebody reminding us occasionally doesn't really change things. As far as Russia having more than us, it's immaterial. First, ours are more accurate and two, it's like the difference between jumping off a 50 floor building or a 100 story one. Both have enough power to kill you.
BackshopFirst, ours are more accurate and two, it's like the difference between jumping off a 50 floor building or a 100 story one. Both have enough power to kill you.
Not to mention MAD (mutually assured destruction).
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
EuclidHow can you predict the scenario of nukes would never happen, and yet claim there are way too many variable to predict who would do what? Add Quote to your
All this was answered in a previous question. Do you intend to go through each NATO member country and ask "What if ________(fill in blank here with a new country) had nukes?" Your repeating the same questions over and over but changing the roles slightly. If you want a new answer ask a new question. Otherwise, I feel like a broken record here.........repeating the same answer over and over again.
BackshopWe've known for 70 years that we were the main target of Russian/Soviet nukes. Somebody reminding us occasionally doesn't really change things.
What changes things is the heightened sense of confrontation we are in with Russia at this point in time, along with the seemingly irrational behavior of Putin as we crush his country with crippling sanctions, and he repeatedly threatens to use nukes against NATO/U.S. There has never been anything like it in the past other than the momentary, and relatively tiny Cuban missile confrontation.
Euclid Backshop We've known for 70 years that we were the main target of Russian/Soviet nukes. Somebody reminding us occasionally doesn't really change things. What changes things is the heightened sense of confrontation we are in with Russia at this point in time, along with the seemingly irrational behavior of Putin as we crush his country with crippling sanctions, and he repeatedly threatens to use nukes against NATO/U.S. There has never been anything like it in the past other than the momentary, and relatively tiny Cuban missile confrontation.
Backshop We've known for 70 years that we were the main target of Russian/Soviet nukes. Somebody reminding us occasionally doesn't really change things.
I am old enough to remember in elementary school having "air raid" drills where we got under our desks and covered our heads. I can also remember the early morning when the Strategic Air Command dispersed its B-52 bombers to make them a more difficult target during the Cuban Missile Crisis. My home was right under the landing flight path for the Duluth, MN airport. I was awakened by the windows rattling and a picture fell of the wall, my dog jumped onto my bed. I quickly got myself and my dog under the bed and hugged him to me. The planes were landing about one minute apart and each one rattled the house. My dad quickly got dressed and ran outside and saw what was happening, he came in about the time the last plane landed and told me what was happening, and got me out from under the bed. Scary stuff for a seven year old kid.
JayBee I am old enough to remember in elementary school having "air raid" drills where we got under our desks and covered our heads. I can also remember the early morning when the Strategic Air Command dispersed its B-52 bombers to make them a more difficult target during the Cuban Missile Crisis. My home was right under the landing flight path for the Duluth, MN airport. I was awakened by the windows rattling and a picture fell of the wall, my dog jumped onto my bed. I quickly got myself and my dog under the bed and hugged him to me. The planes were landing about one minute apart and each one rattled the house. My dad quickly got dressed and ran outside and saw what was happening, he came in about the time the last plane landed and told me what was happening, and got me out from under the bed. Scary stuff for a seven year old kid.
Scary enough for me at 15 in 1962.
Some posters seem to take the present day nuclear threat mighty casually. As I said before, no one can pretend to predict what Putin and Company might do.
charlie hebdo JayBee I am old enough to remember in elementary school having "air raid" drills where we got under our desks and covered our heads. I can also remember the early morning when the Strategic Air Command dispersed its B-52 bombers to make them a more difficult target during the Cuban Missile Crisis. My home was right under the landing flight path for the Duluth, MN airport. I was awakened by the windows rattling and a picture fell of the wall, my dog jumped onto my bed. I quickly got myself and my dog under the bed and hugged him to me. The planes were landing about one minute apart and each one rattled the house. My dad quickly got dressed and ran outside and saw what was happening, he came in about the time the last plane landed and told me what was happening, and got me out from under the bed. Scary stuff for a seven year old kid. Scary enough for me at 15 in 1962. Some posters seem to take the present day nuclear threat mighty casually. As I said before, no one can pretend to predict what Putin and Company might do.
I have read that a cancer specialist has made over 30 trips to Moscow to treat Putin for a as yet unspecified cancer.
Could Vlad, seeing his mortality rapidly approaching, want to go out 'with a bang'?
I also understand whatever Vlad wants to do - there is nothing I personally can do about it one way or the other. I don't have a school desk to hide under as I kiss my ass good bye.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
charlie hebdo Some posters seem to take the present day nuclear threat mighty casually. As I said before, no one can pretend to predict what Putin and Company might do.
I did the whole "duck and cover" thing back in school. In junior high (1966 to 1969) we had to stand in the hallways and cover our faces and the backs of our necks and not lean on the walls because if the building shook (supposedly built to withstand nukes, yeah right) it would hurt. We only had to do that once because I think the school administrators realised how ridiculous that all was. The early 60s was kind of a scary time and I guess recently coming out of the McCarthy era made it more so.
At least during the Cuban crisis, Nikita had the sense to stand down.
Article about Posner's trains carrrying refugees Poland border to Hamburg.
For Ukrainian refugees traveling from Poland to Germany, Henry Posner III ’77’s train awaits | Princeton Alumni
54light15 I did the whole "duck and cover" thing back in school. In junior high (1966 to 1969) we had to stand in the hallways and cover our faces and the backs of our necks and not lean on the walls because if the building shook (supposedly built to withstand nukes, yeah right) it would hurt. We only had to do that once because I think the school administrators realised how ridiculous that all was. The early 60s was kind of a scary time and I guess recently coming out of the McCarthy era made it more so. At least during the Cuban crisis, Nikita had the sense to stand down. Nikita stood down because at that time the US & allies had the superior advantage along with the distance from Russia to Cuba on its side. But he got the US missles out of Turkey and the US agreed to stop trying to overthrow Castro as part of the deal. The 1950's when I had most of my schooling was a very nervous time, especially when Russia got the H Bomb. [I can still recall quite well hearing the news that Stalin had died over the local radio just like what happened when JFK was shot.] Fortunately, Stalin didn't live that long into the 50's and Berra of the KGB who was expected to follow him was executed--both of which made just about everyone happy. I believe Putin is actually the first who came up the KGB ranks to actually run Russia which probably accounts for much of what he is now doing.
Nikita stood down because at that time the US & allies had the superior advantage along with the distance from Russia to Cuba on its side. But he got the US missles out of Turkey and the US agreed to stop trying to overthrow Castro as part of the deal.
The 1950's when I had most of my schooling was a very nervous time, especially when Russia got the H Bomb. [I can still recall quite well hearing the news that Stalin had died over the local radio just like what happened when JFK was shot.] Fortunately, Stalin didn't live that long into the 50's and Berra of the KGB who was expected to follow him was executed--both of which made just about everyone happy. I believe Putin is actually the first who came up the KGB ranks to actually run Russia which probably accounts for much of what he is now doing.
Euclid Is the Doctrine of Deterrence Obsolete? The seemingly irrational Ukraine invasion is causing people to question Putin’s physical and mental state. But could it be that acting irrational when he is not irrational is part of Putin’s strategy along with his frequent threats to use nuclear weapons? It would be a strategy that converts the entire world’s nuclear deterrence into deterrence that is working only for Putin. Clearly, it is working because it is providing him with enough nuclear deterrence to prevent NATO from acting on a moral basis to stop Putin’s rampage of war crimes. That is confirmed every time we say we don’t want to start WWIII. In other words, Putin seems to be deterring both conventional war and nuclear response against Russia by acting dangerous and unpredictable, a man who cannot be trusted to conform with the doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction.
Without a face to face interview, including testing, it is very difficult to know Putin's mental state. Whether real or feigned instabity, the result is the same in terms of impact in West: caution in aiding Ukraine.
Backshop charlie hebdo Some posters seem to take the present day nuclear threat mighty casually. As I said before, no one can pretend to predict what Putin and Company might do. If you're speaking to me, nothing could be further from the truth. I'm definitely concerned with what happens in the real world. What I'm not concerned with is person who constantly comes up with hypothetical situations where the answer could change on a day-to-day basis.
If you're speaking to me, nothing could be further from the truth. I'm definitely concerned with what happens in the real world. What I'm not concerned with is person who constantly comes up with hypothetical situations where the answer could change on a day-to-day basis.
No, not addressed to you.
I recall the duck and cover drills in grade school in the 50s. One day several of us presented to our principal a diagram in the Trib showing concentric rings of destruction from a 50(?) megaton H-bomb dropped on the Loop. At 25 miles out, the level of destruction where we were was such to make survival a highly improbable outcome.
I would opine that the Tribune printed that map shortly after the Tsar Bomba was detonated by the Soviet Union in 1962 over Novaya Zemlya. The device was constructed at Khruschev's order in order to intimidate the West but it was too big to be useful.
EuclidIt would be a strategy that converts the entire world’s nuclear deterrence into deterrence that is working only for Putin. Clearly, it is working because it is providing him with enough nuclear deterrence to prevent NATO from acting on a moral basis to stop Putin’s rampage of war crimes. That is confirmed every time we say we don’t want to start WWIII.
The following article is a good testimony as to how perspective can flavor the "facts"
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putin-kremlin-foreign-policy-strategy/629388/
While Putin was the first to come up from the ranks, Yuri Andropov was Chairman of the KGB. He suppressed the Prague Spring Uprising.
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