Murphy SidingThat makes zero sense.
Why do you conclude that?
Railway map of Ukraine and Moldova
A few factors to consider for the idea of Ukraine invading Russia:
1. Current Ukraine supply lines from the west are not secure and are being sporadically interdicted by the Russians. That is likely to continue and increase over time as the war drags on.
2. Advancing into Russia would extend those fragile supply lines.
3. Ukraine lacks numbers in offensive weapons such as tanks and airplanes. Strategic offensives use up fuel at an increased rate compared to defensive positions.
4. Open country in Russia around Kursk (site of the largest tank battle in history in WWII) would make Ukraine armor easier targets for Russian armor. Kursk is north of Kharkiv, sort of "on the road to Moscow".
5. Ukraine does not control the air. It is hard to mount a strategic offensive if you do not control the air.
6. Russia has not thrown their whole army in to the Ukraine fight yet. An incursion into Russia would result in the rest of the Russian Army being brought to that front.
7. Russia has a sizeable advantage in artillery. While artillery is not traditionally thought of as an anti-armor weapon, with the right type of rounds coming from artillery that is sited in on specific choke points, artillery can acquit itself very well against armor.
8. If Russia is invaded, Russia will certainly use that as justification for chemical warfare against advancing Ukraine units. And perhaps tactical nukes. Also, chemical warfare could be brought to bear on Kyiv and other cities via aircraft or missiles, so it would not be just the front lines that are affected.
9. The Ukraine Army probably is not large enough to protect its country and also occupy any seized Russian Territory.
10. Ukraine has been asking for more offensive weapons including tanks and planes, but so far the US and NATO have not agreed to any of those types of equipment going to Ukraine.
One observation - maybe right, maybe wrong - take it for what it is worth. But it seems the US and NATO are not 100% behind a Russian complete defeat.
The West did nothing when Russia gobbled up the Crimean Peninsula (and Georgia).
Early in the thread I surmised that one outcome could be a divided country.
Given the lack of full commitment for offensive weapons, it is looking more and more like the Western Countries are going to try a negotiated settlement where there is a partitioned country, just like South Korea and North Korea. They will be able to force that by telling Ukraine they will cut off aid if they don't take the deal.
Unfotunately, this war could go on for months and also go on into 2023.
A ceasefire or a peace isn't guaranteed to last, Russia lied when it seized Crimea and the Dombass. Russia could very easily just wait after a so called "peace" for the Western coallition to weaken after a year or two and use the time to reorganize. Certainly Russia will not discuss a ceasefire until they can no longer seize more ground from Ukraine.
So this Ukrainian fighting position was well thought out due to it's location.
The fighting position uses various urban structures as cover as well as looks like it has some decent camo (until it fires a round which.....smoke from the round gives away the fighting position) Notice where the tank is and it is using the house next to it as cover. The Russians finally spot it and try to fire back but the house is in the way and blocks the shot. Note though that at first the Russians have no clue where the tank is or if it is even there still and just sweep the area with suppressive fire as a precaution in the hope of suppressing the tank or anyone else out there. The Ukrainian tank also looks like it is dug in as well using the ground as protection for part of it's hull and making it harder to hit with a round.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S27kw7XVvSA
double post.....
One persons view points on Russia going into the future -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwPMtmuuVNw
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
kgbw49:.
The idea of Ukraine invading Russian territory seems like a silly fantasy. Your conclusions on the endgame seem spot on.
Yes, but...
look at what he says starting at about 2:00. How you see NATO adopting 'collective offense' produces that result, and no other.
BaltACDBaltACD wrote the following post 2 hours ago: One persons view points on Russia going into the future - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwPMtmuuVNw
China is in even worse shape in regards to depopulation. China is so bad in that area I cannot follow how they will ever overtake us economically. That seems like someones personal pipe dream. The date for the Chinese Economy to grow larger than the United States......seems to keep sliding backwards and backwards in time. Long ago the date was in 2020 sometime.
Personally I don't think it will ever happen that China will overtake us.
kgbw49One observation - maybe right, maybe wrong - take it for what it is worth. But it seems the US and NATO are not 100% behind a Russian complete defeat.
I think your misreading that. I think they are following the old Gen. Colin Powell saying that if you break it...........you fix it. So militariliy via conquest they don't want to break Russia due to the tremendous costs of administering and running that country (look at what the cost was in Iraq a much smaller model where we got looped into even paying to upgrade their old and outdated infrastructure which had zero to do with the war) but Economically with sanctions...........no problems there on taking Russia to the cleaners.
Former PM Gordon Brown of UK is on YouTube in an interview. He said we can no longer do business with Putin at all. He has to leave power and he sees some kind of negotiated settlement at the end of all this where Putin leaves power and stands trial as do some of his buddies and order takers. I guess time will tell there but if Brown is saying that publicy, Putin has to have heard similar by now and so he must know by now there is no scenario he remains in power except where he takes on NATO and defeats or splits it.
Overmod Yes, but... look at what he says starting at about 2:00. How you see NATO adopting 'collective offense' produces that result, and no other.
EuclidThis will be identical to the premise that we should have stopped Hitler on the same moral imperative.
I think you mean stopped the Nazi's. Because they probably could have shot Hitler and Goring or Himmler would have taken over.
Hindsight is also 20-20. We have no clue what else is going on in Russia or what atrocities are happening across that country to maintain Putins power and we won't have an idea until after Putin is gone likely. It was the same with the Nazi's for the most part.
Russian railways in default on loan.
Credit derivatives committee says failure to pay has occurred on Russian Railways (msn.com)
CMStPnP BaltACD BaltACD wrote the following post 2 hours ago: One persons view points on Russia going into the future - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwPMtmuuVNw China is in even worse shape in regards to depopulation. China is so bad in that area I cannot follow how they will ever overtake us economically. That seems like someones personal pipe dream. The date for the Chinese Economy to grow larger than the United States......seems to keep sliding backwards and backwards in time. Long ago the date was in 2020 sometime. Personally I don't think it will ever happen that China will overtake us.
BaltACD BaltACD wrote the following post 2 hours ago: One persons view points on Russia going into the future - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwPMtmuuVNw
China's present leadership is trying to reign in what has been expansionist economic policy and is going to prevent China being the worlds largest economic power.
charlie hebdo kgbw49:. The idea of Ukraine invading Russian territory seems like a silly fantasy. Your conclusions on the endgame seem spot on.
Euclid My point is that I have expected this war to be portrayed very up close and personal. It will strongly market the idea that we simply must fight to save Ukraine. The advocates for doing just that are probably about 75% of the “West” already. The pressure to end the carnage will become unstoppable, and NATO will simply cave out of overpowering sympathy and a big heart. They will do the “right thing" to save Ukraine, and the result will take the world into nuclear war. That was my point.
CMStPnP Euclid This will be identical to the premise that we should have stopped Hitler on the same moral imperative. I think you mean stopped the Nazi's. Because they probably could have shot Hitler and Goring or Himmler would have taken over. Hindsight is also 20-20. We have no clue what else is going on in Russia or what atrocities are happening across that country to maintain Putins power and we won't have an idea until after Putin is gone likely. It was the same with the Nazi's for the most part.
Euclid This will be identical to the premise that we should have stopped Hitler on the same moral imperative.
It's hardly a foregone conclusion or widely accepted by historians that there would have been continuity if Hitler had been removed. Obviously the various groups behind the 20 July plot would not agree with your assumption.
In the Third Reich, all military and other personnel swore an oath to Hitler, which coupled with his charismatic popularity made disobedience very difficult unless he were removed. That situation does not exist in the same manner with Putin.
Backshop Euclid My point is that I have expected this war to be portrayed very up close and personal. It will strongly market the idea that we simply must fight to save Ukraine. The advocates for doing just that are probably about 75% of the “West” already. The pressure to end the carnage will become unstoppable, and NATO will simply cave out of overpowering sympathy and a big heart. They will do the “right thing" to save Ukraine, and the result will take the world into nuclear war. That was my point. I disagree. Things will just stay as a proxy war. NATO would never be unanimous in taking on a new mission. While you hear about the US, UK,France and the ex-Warsaw Pact countries wanting to do more, Italy, Spain, Turkey, etc., have been very quiet.
I disagree. Things will just stay as a proxy war. NATO would never be unanimous in taking on a new mission. While you hear about the US, UK,France and the ex-Warsaw Pact countries wanting to do more, Italy, Spain, Turkey, etc., have been very quiet.
Most likely that is what this will remain, IMO. Fighting in the East, stalemate and a negotiated settlement.
charlie hebdo That situation does not exist in the same manner with Putin.
I tend to agree. Putin may be the face of the Russion effort, but I would opine that there are a lot of frustrated former Soviets behind him.
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
Deleted by poster.
York1 John
Now that Russia has destroyed parts of North Ukraine their attention is to be the Donbas Region where a large percentage of people are 'Russian'.
I believe once they have captured Dombas Russia will seek peace with Ukraine.
Meanwhile Russia has been attacking Moldovan shipping. The area in Moldova called Transnistra already has Russian soldiers stationed there. There are 'proposals in Transnistra for joining the Russian Federation'. The Moldovan Government has repeatedly asked Russia to withdraw their troops. It has to be remembered that Moldova is a neutral country.
Russia has warned both Sweden and Finland not to join NATO. Since Russia's attack on Ukraine both countries are looking at their own safety against Russian aggression. Joining NATO would be one way.
David
To the world you are someone. To someone you are the world
I cannot afford the luxury of a negative thought
NorthBrit I believe once they have captured Dombas Russia will seek peace with Ukraine. David
NorthBritNow that Russia has destroyed parts of North Ukraine their attention is to be the Donbas Region where a large percentage of people are 'Russian'. I believe once they have captured Dombas Russia will seek peace with Ukraine. Meanwhile Russia has been attacking Moldovan shipping. The area in Moldova called Transnistra already has Russian soldiers stationed there. There are 'proposals in Transnistra for joining the Russian Federation'. The Moldovan Government has repeatedly asked Russia to withdraw their troops. It has to be remembered that Moldova is a neutral country. Russia has warned both Sweden and Finland not to join NATO. Since Russia's attack on Ukraine both countries are looking at their own safety against Russian aggression. Joining NATO would be one way. David
Russia wants to flatten the Dombas Region - they don't care if it is inhabited by Russian or Ukrainian sympathiers - it is inhabited by civilians and they need to be eliminated.
tree68but I would opine that there are a lot of frustrated former Soviets behind him
Ah you don't have to opine.....it's history...
The WWII plot included a coup in Berlin along with sweeping arrests in addition to the assination plot on Hitler. If it was all about Hitler the assination would have been enough if it succeeded. But there were other folks vying for power if something happened to him so they needed the coup to take control fully and put their agenda in place to be sure.
Fairly standard for an autocracy.
NorthBrit Russia has warned both Sweden and Finland not to join NATO. Since Russia's attack on Ukraine both countries are looking at their own safety against Russian aggression. Joining NATO would be one way.
Here's another opinion that some may have a problem with. I'm of Ukrainian descent and even I know that Ukraine was pretty corrupt. Not that that is a reason to invade, but there was that "two birds of a feather" feeling. That's part of why Ukraine isn't already in the EU. On the other hand, Sweden and Finland are "western" democracies who already cooperate with NATO. Even without a formal memberships, I think that if they are attacked, many NATO countries, either as a coalition or individually, would join in fully to defend them.
Russian Railways just bwcame the first company to default on its debt as it missed an interest payment on $268 million of bonds
Russian Railways becomes first company to officially default in the country, as Western sanctions jam the financial system (msn.com)
Looks like they're joining Czarist bonds in the less than junk bond category.
Euclid Now there is talk of Russia suspected of having used chemical weapons in Ukraine. Some are suggesting that NATO must react to this. What does NATO doctrine actually call for if it is proven that Russia has used chemical weapons in the Ukraine war? If no specific action is called for, what can NATO decide to do?
Our community is FREE to join. To participate you must either login or register for an account.