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Posted by CMStPnP on Sunday, March 20, 2022 4:42 PM

Euclid
But I thought the general premise here was that NATO is neutral and will stay out of this war unless Russia attacks a NATO country.  So if that is the case, it strikes me as odd that NATO members, being part of the NATO agreement of neutrality, would be allowed to go out on a freelance basis to individually choose to provide weapons to Ukraine and risk triggering a war between Russia and NATO.  We just backed down from being involved in supplying jets to Ukraine because that would be seen as too provocative, and might trigger a war with Russia. 

Regardless of Russias attempts to redefine international law which is mostly along the lines of complete BS.    First, you cannot publicly accuse NATO of provoking a war and then in the other had say you view it as a neutral and only will view it as neutral if it follows your rules to the letter.....that is complete BS by the Russians and they know it.   They are attempting to get something for nothing and they are partly succeeding with the ploy.

Red Cross / Crescent defines neutrality pretty clearly and NATO is not now nor has ever been neutral to this conflict.    Providing arms or material support to another legitmate country that is requesting them via legitimate means might be considered a violation of Red Cross defined neutrality but if the arms agreements or arms relationships preceeded the war it is a continuation of commerce in my view.   NATO or NATO countries supplying Ukraine preceeded this war.   Why should they stop?    Because Russia does not like it?     

Well boo-hoo, in almost every war we have fought Russia had no qualms about continuing to arm the other side and there were no limits with what arms it would sell or in what volumes, during those conflicts Russia did not consider that participating in a war.   So this recent redefinition should be disregarded as Russia attempting to apply rules it does not follow itself.    Why NATO or the DoD is even debating which convential arms might offend Russia and which conventional arms might not is just sillyness and don't expect Russia to ever return that favor being done for them.

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Posted by Backshop on Sunday, March 20, 2022 5:51 PM

Great post, CMStPnP.

Also, Flintlock's link shows that Putin's remarks about Ukrainians and Russians as being one people is a lie.

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Sunday, March 20, 2022 6:11 PM

CMStPnP

 

 
Euclid
But I thought the general premise here was that NATO is neutral and will stay out of this war unless Russia attacks a NATO country.  So if that is the case, it strikes me as odd that NATO members, being part of the NATO agreement of neutrality, would be allowed to go out on a freelance basis to individually choose to provide weapons to Ukraine and risk triggering a war between Russia and NATO.  We just backed down from being involved in supplying jets to Ukraine because that would be seen as too provocative, and might trigger a war with Russia. 

 

Regardless of Russias attempts to redefine international law which is mostly along the lines of complete BS.    First, you cannot publicly accuse NATO of provoking a war and then in the other had say you view it as a neutral and only will view it as neutral if it follows your rules to the letter.....that is complete BS by the Russians and they know it.   They are attempting to get something for nothing and they are partly succeeding with the ploy.

Red Cross / Crescent defines neutrality pretty clearly and NATO is not now nor has ever been neutral to this conflict.    Providing arms or material support to another legitmate country that is requesting them via legitimate means might be considered a violation of Red Cross defined neutrality but if the arms agreements or arms relationships preceeded the war it is a continuation of commerce in my view.   NATO or NATO countries supplying Ukraine preceeded this war.   Why should they stop?    Because Russia does not like it?     

Well boo-hoo, in almost every war we have fought Russia had no qualms about continuing to arm the other side and there were no limits with what arms it would sell or in what volumes, during those conflicts Russia did not consider that participating in a war.   So this recent redefinition should be disregarded as Russia attempting to apply rules it does not follow itself.    Why NATO or the DoD is even debating which convential arms might offend Russia and which conventional arms might not is just sillyness and don't expect Russia to ever return that favor being done for them.

 

I think you both are missing the historical context.  Neutrality or NATO or fairness aren't the real issues. This is not a rational question. NATO was never a neutral organization. We are dealing with an increasingly deranged man controlling vast amounts of deliverable nukes.

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Posted by JayBee on Sunday, March 20, 2022 6:13 PM

It would be grounds for invoking Article 5.

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Sunday, March 20, 2022 6:19 PM

JayBee

It would be grounds for invoking Article 5.

 

Article 5, which began: “The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all…” While this commitment to collective defense lay at the heart of NATO, it was left to the judgment of each member state to decide how exactly it would contribute.

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Posted by Euclid on Sunday, March 20, 2022 6:46 PM

charlie hebdo

 

 
JayBee

It would be grounds for invoking Article 5.

 

 

 

Article 5, which began: “The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all…” While this commitment to collective defense lay at the heart of NATO, it was left to the judgment of each member state to decide how exactly it would contribute.

 

Where in that description of NATO collective defense is the provision for fighting against a non-NATO country (Russia) to stop them from attacking another non-NATO country (Ukraine)?  How can NATO attack Russia to defend itself when Russia is not attacking NATO? 
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Posted by Backshop on Sunday, March 20, 2022 7:15 PM

Quit making things up.  NATO isn't attacking anyone, least of all Russia.  Supplying arms is totally different, and legal.  It is being done by individual nations, who just happen to be part of NATO.  It is now being said that China is supplying Russia with munitions.  Does that make China part of the war?  No!

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Posted by Leo_Ames on Sunday, March 20, 2022 8:26 PM

Lending your neighbor your water hose when his house is on fire is a far cry from actually helping put his fire out. All the west is doing is providing aid. They're not on the front lines doing the fighting in this war.

Putin will do what he wants to do. I don't see military aid altering that to any great degree. Sure, he'll happily use it for an excuse to justify his actions. But if we sat by idle, he'd still be out there doing the same things and just coming up with a different set of excuses to flimsily justify his actions. 

Yet by lending Ukraine our hose, we appear to have a chance of seeing Ukraine wreck his ambitions. I don't see how we can't help out with supplies and equipment with so much at stake. Heck, even Germany is finally coming around and seeing the light.

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Posted by kgbw49 on Sunday, March 20, 2022 9:59 PM

One wonders how long it will take the Russian army to launch an offensive to cut the Ukraine supply lines from the west. They would not even have to take Lviv, only take control of about a 30-mile-wide corridor along the western boundary of Ukraine.

If we can see that, Russia can see that and they almost surely have plans to eventually interdict and cut off those supply lines from the west, but have not yet executed any operation, thankfully. While they are moving ponderously and slowly, they are still on the offensive across almost every other area of the country except Kviv, where it appears they are going to conduct a siege of the city.

With a limited air force that can't interdict Russian supply lines, and artillery that must be getting low on their supply of Russian-made shells for their Russian-made artillery, Ukraine is hanging on by the unimpeded supply lines from the west.

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Posted by Euclid on Sunday, March 20, 2022 10:20 PM

Backshop

Quit making things up.  NATO isn't attacking anyone, least of all Russia.  Supplying arms is totally different, and legal.  It is being done by individual nations, who just happen to be part of NATO.  It is now being said that China is supplying Russia with munitions.  Does that make China part of the war?  No!

 

I am not making anything up.  As I understand from what has been said here, NATO countries are free to aid Ukraine with full military support.  One or more could decide to do that. 
 
I am not sure why Charlie Hebdo posted the NATO terms of collective defense as follows: 
 
Article 5, which began: “The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all…” While this commitment to collective defense lay at the heart of NATO, it was left to the judgment of each member state to decide how exactly it would contribute.
 
So I asked him for clarification.  I assume he was referring to the exception of action left to the judgement of each individual member as meaning that those members could just their judgement to attack Russia and drive them out of Ukraine. 
 
That seemed to be the thrust of the controversy at that moment in the thread.  But in any case, I don’t see that part “leaving it to the judgement” as meaning they are free to individually attack Russia under the terms of NATO.  I see it as saying they can use their judgement to decide how to take part in the collective defense.   
 
That is why I asked him, “Where in that description of NATO collective defense is the provision for fighting against a non-NATO country (Russia) to stop them from attacking another non-NATO country (Ukraine)?  How can NATO attack Russia to defend itself when Russia is not attacking them?”
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Posted by blue streak 1 on Monday, March 21, 2022 12:09 AM

One country that is an EU member but not a NATO country is Finland.  Since the USSR invaded parts of Finland more than once you can imagine Finland's concern.  That is why previously Finland citizens were against joining NATO.  Have not seen what the citizens' thoughts are now but there has been some unofficial talk about a quick joining?  The long rboder with Russia and Putin would certainly make me to worry.

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Posted by Erik_Mag on Monday, March 21, 2022 1:00 AM

kgbw49

One wonders how long it will take the Russian army to launch an offensive to cut the Ukraine supply lines from the west. They would not even have to take Lviv, only take control of about a 30-mile-wide corridor along the western boundary of Ukraine.

There's some question whether the Russians would be able to extend their supply lines to Ukraine's western border without the use of the Ukraine's rail network. The Russians seem to have their problems with keeping their trucks running.

Other problem with being wihin 30 miles of the western border is that NATO forces can conduct a lot of aerial reconaissance from NATO airspace.

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Posted by JayBee on Monday, March 21, 2022 1:33 AM

blue streak 1

One country that is an EU member but not a NATO country is Finland.  Since the USSR invaded parts of Finland more than once you can imagine Finland's concern.  That is why previously Finland citizens were against joining NATO.  Have not seen what the citizens' thoughts are now but there has been some unofficial talk about a quick joining?  The long rboder with Russia and Putin would certainly make me to worry.

 
There were polls in both Finland and Sweden showing that more people support joining NATO than oppose joining. In Sweden the supporters did not constitute a majority of those polled. In Finland more than 50% of those polled supported joining NATO. However in no case was this a nationwide vote. So both governments are debating what to do. At this time Russia cannot do more than threaten either country. He is pulling troops from everywhere, but to date the Russians are making the mistake of feeding the soldiers in piecemeal as replacements into exiting formations. A recent report from Japan is that a group of Russian amphibious ships from their Pacific Fleet passed through the Tsugaru Strait, and are likely carrying the Pacific Fleet's Naval Infantry with their equipment to the Black Sea to join the fight.
 
New yesterday was the announcement that Haliburton, Schlumberger, and Baker Hughes are closing down operations in Russia. That will hit Russia's Oil and Natural Gas production within a few weeks.
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Posted by JayBee on Monday, March 21, 2022 1:56 AM

Euclid don't worry about what the other members of NATO might or might not do. None of them will take any action without the US agreement. Could Russia pick a fight with NATO, absolutely. It might help him drum up support among his own people, but I doubt that China would think highly of the idea. He needs China much more than China needs him. With the departure of the Oil Field services companies, Russian production of Oil and Gas will fall. All of Russia's Oil and Gas production in Siberia is in very difficult locations and to drill in these areas they need western experts.

Russia has closed down any outside information getting into the country and is broadcasting propaganda to drum up the fervor of the citizens of Russia to hate the Ukrainians. In order to not have Russians see what is happening to it's soldiers fighting in Ukraine, they are leaving them where they fall and are not repatriating their bodies back to Russia where the population could see the funerals. 

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Posted by JayBee on Monday, March 21, 2022 2:16 AM

kgbw49

One wonders how long it will take the Russian army to launch an offensive to cut the Ukraine supply lines from the west. They would not even have to take Lviv, only take control of about a 30-mile-wide corridor along the western boundary of Ukraine.

 
The Russians can barely move. Their forces that have reached the furthest from their starting locations, the forces from Crimea that reached NW of Mykoliaev in central Ukraine, have been driven back nearly to the city of Kherson. Of course in doing so the Ukrainians and the Russians have taken heavy losses. It will take at least several weeks before the Russians can move any significant distance anywhere. The new crop of Russian conscripts are due to report on April 1st, when the Russians start feeding them into the meatgrinder will depend on how much training they will get. Another big problem for the Russians is that they have failed to invest the time and effort to properly train their NCOs and junior officers, the problem is bad enough that they have lost five Generals including the commander of the 8th Combined Arms Army. The reason for the loss is that in order for the troops to advance the Generals have to go near the front lines to get their soldiers to attack, and Ukrainian snipers and artillery with the help of drones are picking them off. Officers from the Soviet era are the source of the Russian Army's institutional knowledge, and each loss will be keenly felt.  
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Posted by JayBee on Monday, March 21, 2022 2:20 AM

All you need to know about the Finns is contained in this video.

Video

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Posted by CMStPnP on Monday, March 21, 2022 7:43 AM

charlie hebdo
We are dealing with an increasingly deranged man controlling vast amounts of deliverable nukes.

That could be an act.   Yeltsins advisor that knows Putin well and currently lives in one of the Baltics stated that is all a bluff aimed at the Western audience. 

 Weather it is or is not, it's Russias problem who is the Captain at the helm making decisions.   We should only be focused on the actions of the country vs individual.   

If we are going to focus on the individual vs country and believe he is crazy we should take him out as we attempted more than once with Khadaffi and Castro.   Why we are sticking to the ridiculous restriction on assinnation of heads of state when we have broken it so many times in the past..........also ridiculous.     Wasn't that Iranian General Solemani or whatever a head of state?   Boom he is gone.  In Putins case, three threats of Nuclear War is enough for a case of self-defense.

I believe Putin is sane and rational and all that crazy stuff is Western Media picking up on his whole disinformation campaign.    For someone crazy that does not care about his life, he still has a huge security detail and is keeping a distance from potential assassins, still has his huge financial stash of money, not killing people around him via paranoid suspicions without rationale (like a crazy person would)......Castro and Khaddafi both did that.

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Posted by Euclid on Monday, March 21, 2022 7:53 AM

JayBee
Euclid don't worry about what the other members of NATO might or might not do. None of them will take any action without the US agreement.

 
I understand your point.  The main reason I ask is that I sense that public pressure is building for directly help to Ukraine.  That pressure is certainly understandable.
 
All I want to know is how aggressive NATO can be in providing help to Ukraine, considering that NATO is intended to be collective defense of NATO member countries, and Ukraine is not a member of NATO.
 
Apparently supplying weapons to Ukraine is okay.  But there is a potential continuum to ramp up such Ukraine defense help, and NATO has expressed worry about going too far.  That suggests that there must be a line somewhere, so where is the line drawn?
 
The NATO language that I posted on the previous page, clearly distinguishes what NATO will provide from what NATO member countries can provide; with the difference being that NATO does not provide weapons, but member countries do. 
 
Because that is in their formal statement, I assumed it was more than just a matter of the varying and arbitrary judgement of members.
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Posted by Backshop on Monday, March 21, 2022 8:33 AM

Once again, NATO itself can't supply arms because it doesn't have any.  As far as this statement " it was left to the judgment of each member state to decide how exactly it would contribute", all that means is that members have to help defend each other, there is no set amount that they have to contribute to the defense.

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Posted by Euclid on Monday, March 21, 2022 10:47 AM

Backshop

Once again, NATO itself can't supply arms because it doesn't have any.  As far as this statement " it was left to the judgment of each member state to decide how exactly it would contribute", all that means is that members have to help defend each other, there is no set amount that they have to contribute to the defense.

 

Yes I understand that.  I said that about 10 posts previous by saying:

But in any case, I don’t see that part “leaving it to the judgement” as meaning they are free to individually attack Russia under the terms of NATO.  I see it as saying they can use their judgement to decide how to take part in the collective defense.   

But my overall question has been regarding what individual NATO member countries can do about helping Ukraine.  Judging by answers here, they can do anything they want to.  They can provide weapons, they can attack Russia economically, they can provide advisors with the weapons, or they can go to war with Russia to drive them out of Ukraine. 

Apparently the language addressing this in the NATO document I posted is only referring to what they are choosing to do now.  That could change into doing more or less.  Likewise, Russia can do anything they want to do depending on how they feel about NATO countries helping Ukraine.

Russia is likely to want to strike weapons being sent into Ukraine by NATO countries.  This could be done once the weapons have crossed the border into Ukraine, or while the incoming weapons are still in the donor NATO country while heading for Ukraine.  If Russia thinks it easier to hit the weapons while still in the donor country, I don’t think Russia would hesitate to do so.  

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Posted by Backshop on Monday, March 21, 2022 11:01 AM

Euclid
If Russia thinks it easier to hit the weapons while still in the donor country, I don’t think Russia would hesitate to do so.  

Yes, they will.  If they thought it was a good idea, they would've done it by now.  That would cause Article 5 to be invoked. Russia is running a big bluff and it's all falling apart on them.  They found out that they aren't as powerful as they thought and told themselves that they are.  Their only fallback is nukes.  In a even semi-serious conventional war, NATO would neuter them quickly.  They're also deluding themselves if they think that they could get away with a "limited" nuclear strike against a NATO country.

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Posted by Euclid on Monday, March 21, 2022 12:27 PM

Backshop
They're also deluding themselves if they think that they could get away with a "limited" nuclear strike against a NATO country.

What do you mean by that?  How would that play out in detail?

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Posted by JayBee on Monday, March 21, 2022 12:34 PM

Euclid
I understand your point.  The main reason I ask is that I sense that public pressure is building for directly help to Ukraine.  That pressure is certainly understandable.
 

 
The US government will remain unmoveable. Unless Putin drops a nuclear weapon on the Ukraine, I see no chance on the US getting directly involved. It is the European leaders who will have to decide to take it to the level of getting militarily involved.
 
 
All I want to know is how aggressive NATO can be in providing help to Ukraine, considering that NATO is intended to be collective defense of NATO member countries, and Ukraine is not a member of NATO.
 
I expect to see the leaders of the first tier of European NATO member states being very cautious about taking any steps further towards supplying even more deadly and potentially useful offensive weapons to Ukraine. 
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Posted by charlie hebdo on Monday, March 21, 2022 3:07 PM

CMStPnP

 

 
charlie hebdo
We are dealing with an increasingly deranged man controlling vast amounts of deliverable nukes.

 

That could be an act.   Yeltsins advisor that knows Putin well and currently lives in one of the Baltics stated that is all a bluff aimed at the Western audience. 

 Weather it is or is not, it's Russias problem who is the Captain at the helm making decisions.   We should only be focused on the actions of the country vs individual.   

If we are going to focus on the individual vs country and believe he is crazy we should take him out as we attempted more than once with Khadaffi and Castro.   Why we are sticking to the ridiculous restriction on assinnation of heads of state when we have broken it so many times in the past..........also ridiculous.     Wasn't that Iranian General Solemani or whatever a head of state?   Boom he is gone.  In Putins case, three threats of Nuclear War is enough for a case of self-defense.

I believe Putin is sane and rational and all that crazy stuff is Western Media picking up on his whole disinformation campaign.    For someone crazy that does not care about his life, he still has a huge security detail and is keeping a distance from potential assassins, still has his huge financial stash of money, not killing people around him via paranoid suspicions without rationale (like a crazy person would)......Castro and Khaddafi both did that.

 

You act as though you are an expert or have accurate information sources. I see no evidence that you do. Nor are you in a better position to judge Putin's mental state than anyone on here.

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Posted by Backshop on Monday, March 21, 2022 3:37 PM

Euclid

 

 
Backshop
They're also deluding themselves if they think that they could get away with a "limited" nuclear strike against a NATO country.

 

What do you mean by that?  How would that play out in detail?

 

Once the nuclear genie is let out of the bottle, all bets are off.

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Posted by CMStPnP on Monday, March 21, 2022 4:38 PM

Euclid
How can NATO attack Russia to defend itself when Russia is not attacking NATO? 

  

Well in the 1980's they used to have a status of forces agreement with the Soviet Union.   Not sure if they do now with Russia but the agreement stipulated a DMZ from the actual border.    So they had to keep their military x number of miles from the border or NATO could presume an attack was underway (5 miles or 12 miles forget which)   US had to do the same.    NATO did not have to wait for an actual border crossing.    

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Posted by Euclid on Monday, March 21, 2022 5:45 PM
An interesting report on the makeup of Putin from this source:
 
Gravitas Plus | Ukraine War: Understanding Russian President Vladimir Putin
4,141,487 views
Premiered Feb 26, 2022
How well do we understand Vladimir Putin? Why is he invading Ukraine? Why isn't he afraid of the consequences? Nothing answers these questions better than stories that have shaped Putin's life. Palki Sharma Upadhyay takes you inside Putin's mind.
 
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Posted by BaltACD on Monday, March 21, 2022 7:12 PM

Euclid
An interesting report on the makeup of Putin from this source:
 
Gravitas Plus | Ukraine War: Understanding Russian President Vladimir Putin
4,141,487 views
Premiered Feb 26, 2022
How well do we understand Vladimir Putin? Why is he invading Ukraine? Why isn't he afraid of the consequences? Nothing answers these questions better than stories that have shaped Putin's life. Palki Sharma Upadhyay takes you inside Putin's mind.
 

That has to be the clearest, most direct assessment of what we are seeing of Putin.

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

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Posted by JayBee on Monday, March 21, 2022 7:59 PM

Euclid
An interesting report on the makeup of Putin from this source:
 
Gravitas Plus | Ukraine War: Understanding Russian President Vladimir Putin
4,141,487 views
Premiered Feb 26, 2022
How well do we understand Vladimir Putin? Why is he invading Ukraine? Why isn't he afraid of the consequences? Nothing answers these questions better than stories that have shaped Putin's life. Palki Sharma Upadhyay takes you inside Putin's mind.
 
 

 

Better than Gravitas, look at this CNN story.

Putin's Fascism

 

Many on here dismiss CNN as a liberal fake news source, so ignore what the presenter says and just look at what evidence he presents. Personally I have ordered a copy of Mr. Snyder's book.

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Monday, March 21, 2022 10:42 PM

Suggest that  every one plan for some cyber attacks.  Possibility is low but what the heck?

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