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Amtrak Wreck in Philadelphia

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Posted by rdamon on Tuesday, June 9, 2015 12:13 PM

Mobile operators use GPS to sync the clocks for the equipment at the towers. Their back end billing systems may be a different story, but I would be suprised if the call detail records are not accurate.

Now playing candy crush may be a different matter...

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Posted by WDGF on Tuesday, June 9, 2015 11:26 AM

BaltACD

I get the feeling that the cell phone carrier doesn't have their clock synced with GMT - maybe off by 10 to 15 minutes in either direction - which is making it diffcult to correlate to the real world.

If they are checking individual cell tower records, it may be that each tower has it's own clock and those clocks are not syncronized with any other...

I'd be stunned if a carrier's system was even 30 seconds off, unless there were some severe momentary system-wide fault occuring. Checking my own carrier against WWV shows that they are typically within a couple seconds of UTC, and never more than 10 seconds off. And THAT inaccuracy may be internal to my phone's clock display, rather than the carrier.

I may be completely mistaken about this, but I believe the cell sites have to be centrally synchronized, as it affects their hand-off to other sites and location services.

 

BTW, (and this may be answered as I read further) does anyone know if the locomotive's event recorder is kept time-sync'd all the time, or if it's synched once a day, or what? Not that it's necessarily important... Just my idle curiosity.

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Posted by Euclid on Tuesday, June 9, 2015 11:01 AM
tree68
 
Euclid
In fact at this point, I assume the he is to blame.

 

You know what they say about "assume."  Besides, in this country, a person is innocent until proven guilty.  Once all other possibilities are ruled out, then it's likely he will be found to be at fault.

 
I am just predicting what the NTSB will find.

 

Or at least what you think they will find.  Maybe they will, maybe they won't.

I'm waiting for their report.

 

I think you are being picky.  The two distinctions you make are hardly distinctions at all.  What is the difference between me assuming he is to blame and you saying it is likely he will be found at fault?
What is the difference between me predicting what the NTSB will find and me thinking what they will find?
The innocence until proven guilty is a legal process principle.  It has nothing to do with personal opinions of those not engaged in the legal process. 
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Posted by tree68 on Tuesday, June 9, 2015 10:22 AM

Euclid
In fact at this point, I assume the he is to blame.

You know what they say about "assume."  Besides, in this country, a person is innocent until proven guilty.  Once all other possibilities are ruled out, then it's likely he will be found to be at fault.

I am just predicting what the NTSB will find.

Or at least what you think they will find.  Maybe they will, maybe they won't.

I'm waiting for their report.

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Posted by Euclid on Tuesday, June 9, 2015 10:11 AM
Norm48327
 
Euclid
My point also has nothing whatsoever to do with the amount of time it is taking.

 

Go back and read your own posts. You once said it could be done in a couple hours.

 
Euclid
It is about credibility.

 

Yours seems to be faltering.

 

Norm,
The phrase, “my point” in the context of the post from which you quoted it, refers to the point that the NTSB should not have gone public with the cell phone search.  THAT POINT has nothing to do with the amount of time it is taking. 
But yes, I think it is taking too long.  That is another point.  There is no conflict there on my point. 
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Posted by Euclid on Tuesday, June 9, 2015 10:09 AM
Dave,
Okay, thanks for clarifying that.  To your question above asking how I know the engineer is not to blame or that the NTSB could not blame him.  I don’t know the engineer is not to blame.  In fact at this point, I assume the he is to blame.  I am just predicting what the NTSB will find.    
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Posted by dehusman on Tuesday, June 9, 2015 9:34 AM

Euclid
Would you please cite your source for saying: “the NTSB has publicly said they can do it” in reference to confirming the cell phone use.

Sure no problem.  Its at the bottom of the link YOU provided.

In a Congressional hearing a Representative asks him if they can determine if he was using the phone and the NSTB rep says yes.

"Maloney pressed Hart for his assurance that the NTSB will be able to, at some point, definitively determine whether Bostian had used his phone during the crucial time period.

"Yes," Hart insisted. "We'll coordinate that with a number of different time sources to make sure to verify the accuracy of it. Because that's very crucial to get that right. Obviously."

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Posted by dehusman on Tuesday, June 9, 2015 9:17 AM

Euclid
When I said I could write the final report, I did was not referring to a report on MY investigation. I was referring to the actual report that the NTSB will write. I certainly have no preference for hanging the engineer, as you say. I don’t believe the NTSB does either. In the final NTSB report, I don’t expect it to even criticize the actions of the engineer, let alone blame him. How could it? There is no way to prove that the engineer knowingly did something wrong. The final report will be an infomercial lecturing everybody on the need to press ahead with PTC.

How do you know the engineer isn't to blame or that the NTSB couldn't blame him if you don't know the cause? 

It is just as probable a that the cause was the engineer got distracted by all the SEPTA train stuff, forgot where he was, opened up on the throttle, then suddenly realized he was still south of Frankford Jct and plugged the train too late.  Actually I think that is way more probable than a lot of the stuff that's been tossed out here because of its simplicity, it doesn't require multiple hordes of rock throwing people, it doesn't require a vast conspiracy, It doesn't require all sorts of technology failures.  All it requires is one guy thinking about something else for about 5 minutes.  Was that the cause?  Dunno.  But its one option.

I will post the "Probably Cause" section of the Chattsworth derailment as something to compare some of the comments about the NTSB will or won't say about the cause.  They clearly put the onus on the engineer in that case.  PTC was just an "oh by the way" contributing cause, not the primary cause. 

"Probable Cause
The National Transportation Safety Board determines that the probable cause of the September 12, 2008, collision of a Metrolink commuter train and a Union Pacific freight train was the failure of the Metrolink engineer to observe and appropriately respond to the red signal aspect at Control Point Topanga because he was engaged in prohibited use of a wireless device, specifically text messaging, that distracted him from his duties. Contributing to the accident was the lack of a positive train control system that would have stopped the Metrolink train short of the red signal and thus prevented the collision."

PS:  If you read the Chattsworth press releases about the cell phone analysis they read almost verbatim to the what the NTSB has said in the press releases on the Frankford Jct derailment.

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Posted by tree68 on Tuesday, June 9, 2015 9:14 AM

Euclid
It is not a huge mistake to announce the sun is going to rise and set, as you say, but it was huge mistake to announce the intent to check for cell phone use

Given the previous history of cell phones being involved with such incidents, they would be foolish not to note that they were checking on that factor.

Euclid
and then to announce how hard it is to find the answer and avoid being wrong. 

Given the variables outlined here, I give them credit for noting that they are being thorough and ensuring that their final findings will be accurate.

I will agree that based on previous reactions to incidents, when all is said and done an agenda may well become apparent.  For the moment, they're investigating.  These things take time.  In the fire service the investigations can take a year for a line-of-duty death.  

We've hashed out possibilities based on what we've been able to observe.  The rest will have to wait until the investigation is complete.

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Posted by Euclid on Tuesday, June 9, 2015 9:14 AM
Dave,
When I said it was “too complicated for them,” I did not also include the conclusion that therefore they have said that they cannot complete the task.  You seem to be adding that conclusion to what I said.  What I meant by “too complicated for them” was that they said that it was too complicated for them to reach the conclusion as quickly as they and most people expected.  “too complicated” was the excuse for the delay.   
Although there was a news article that said that if they could not reach a conclusion within a certain amount of time, they would stop and have a hearing, or something to that effect.  They said that about three weeks into the process. 
Would you please cite your source for saying: “the NTSB has publicly said they can do it” in reference to confirming the cell phone use.
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Posted by ACY Tom on Tuesday, June 9, 2015 9:13 AM

Philly Mag.:  Truly inept and biased reporting.

..."whether Brian Bostian was using his cell phone...." is highlighted to emphasize ."...Brian Bostian was using his cell phone...."

Disgusting.  Next, are they going to suggest we just haul him out and hang him?

Tom

(edited)

 

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Posted by Norm48327 on Tuesday, June 9, 2015 9:12 AM

Euclid
My point also has nothing whatsoever to do with the amount of time it is taking.

Go back and read your own posts. You once said it could be done in a couple hours.

Euclid
It is about credibility.

Yours seems to be faltering.

Norm


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Posted by ACY Tom on Tuesday, June 9, 2015 9:12 AM

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Posted by Euclid on Tuesday, June 9, 2015 8:58 AM
gardendance
 
Euclid

It was a huge mistake to go public with all of this, starting with the announcement that they were going to check the engineer's cell phone records.

 

 

Maybe I'm uncommon, but my common sense would be amazed if they didn't check the engineer's cell phone records. I don't see why one would list announcing that the sun is going to appear to set tonight and appear to rise tomorrow as the start of a series of huge mistakes.

 

I never said that they should not check for cell phone use.  My point also has nothing whatsoever to do with the amount of time it is taking.  All I said is it was a huge mistake to go public with the process.  It is along the lines of “don’t write a check that you can’t cash.” 
It is not a huge mistake to announce the sun is going to rise and set, as you say, but it was huge mistake to announce the intent to check for cell phone use and then to announce how hard it is to find the answer and avoid being wrong.  THAT was a huge mistake.  And there was absolutely no need to announce it. 
It is about credibility.  The NTSB needs near perfect credibility to put forth the results of their investigation in the end. Who would have ever thought that the NATIONAL TRANSPORTATION SAFETY BOARD could not figure out cell phone records? 
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Posted by dehusman on Tuesday, June 9, 2015 8:54 AM

ricktrains4824
Time zone issues..... Sure.....

Times are displayed on the phone as as local times, but the system stores them as universal time.  They have to be converted to local time which includes both the time zone and things like daylight savings time.  A lot of the smaller carriers buy network access from the larger carriers.  I buy phone service from MyLocal phone company, but MyLocal phone company doesn't own any cell towers.  It contracts with Verizon for phone service, Sprint for texting and AT&T for data service.  Now I have up to 5 timestamps I have to verify for all the activity, the one in my phone, the one in MyLocal system and the 3 in each of three different companies depending on the message type.

It certainly can be done (and contrary to what has been posted in previous messages the NTSB has publicly said they can do it) but it does take some work.  I am confused at the uproar because the NTSB is doing a thorough job.  If it was me being investigated, I would want them to take as much time as they needed.

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Posted by Euclid on Tuesday, June 9, 2015 8:44 AM
Norm48327
 
Euclid
I could write their final conclusion right now.

 

I bet you could, and it would be just as wrong as you have been on derailments. You would simply hang the engineer without further ado; no need to find facts. Rumor and inuendo will suffice.

NTSB will, after the investigation, list the probable cause and a list of contributing factors. Should the engineer's cell phone be a factor, they will say so. In the meantime, they can not condemn him based on hearsay or speculation.

Norm,
When I said I could write the final report, I did was not referring to a report on MY investigation.  I was referring to the actual report that the NTSB will write.  I certainly have no preference for hanging the engineer, as you say.  I don’t believe the NTSB does either.  In the final NTSB report, I don’t expect it to even criticize the actions of the engineer, let alone blame him.  How could it?  There is no way to prove that the engineer knowingly did something wrong.  The final report will be an infomercial lecturing everybody on the need to press ahead with PTC.   
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Posted by ricktrains4824 on Tuesday, June 9, 2015 8:39 AM

According to the link, the engineer gave them the password for his phone, so, directly from the phone they have the time stamps. The NTSB then stated, "texts are in one time zone, voice in another" and that the only one who knows what time zone is what is the carrier.... 

Hate to tell you all this, but, if his phone is like mine, the time stamps on texts and calls is LOCAL TIME. 

So much for a complicated issue....

They now appear to be looking for something that is not present, at least to me. And, of my entire family, including my extended family I have access to phones, all 7 of us have different phones, all 7 have time stamps in the phones in LOCAL TIME. 

Time zone issues..... Sure..... 

Lets just say I now no longer believe a single statement made by NTSB anymore on this accident.

Ricky W.

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Posted by Euclid on Tuesday, June 9, 2015 8:25 AM
The link I posted is not intended to cite anything in response to what you have requested.  It is just the latest that I found.  There was an article toward the start of this cell phone epoch where the NTSB said that it appeared that there were time errors in the data of the cell phone carrier. 
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Posted by dehusman on Tuesday, June 9, 2015 7:03 AM

Euclid
At one point, they even blamed the cell phone carrier for having inaccurate time stamps. The point is that if they finally tell us they have the right answer, how can we be sure, considering how confused they said they were?

Could ou please cite where they said that.  All I read in the article you cited was that they said the different communication modes were in different time zones and it was going to be a challenge to match them up.  I didn't read anywhere in that article where they said the phone company had inaccurate time stamps.  Perhaps if you actually read the artice it would help your understanding.  But then again the pupose of the article is to be sensational and biased so you have to filter out the author's agenda.

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Posted by gardendance on Tuesday, June 9, 2015 6:59 AM

Euclid

It was a huge mistake to go public with all of this, starting with the announcement that they were going to check the engineer's cell phone records.

Maybe I'm uncommon, but my common sense would be amazed if they didn't check the engineer's cell phone records. I don't see why one would list announcing that the sun is going to appear to set tonight and appear to rise tomorrow as the start of a series of huge mistakes.

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Posted by dehusman on Tuesday, June 9, 2015 6:53 AM

BaltACD
I get the feeling that the cell phone carrier doesn't have their clock synced with GMT - maybe off by 10 to 15 minutes in either direction - which is making it diffcult to correlate to the real world.

The part that a lot of people are missing is a short phrase in the new magazine's article and covered in more detail in the NTSB news release.  Its the part about "other data systems" in the article and in the NTSB news report it mentions the engine event recorder and the dispatching systems.  In order to answer the question its not only a mtter of time, its where the engineer was and what was the train doing.  Was the train in a station?  Was the train stopped?  Was the train moving?  Was it before or after the incident?  Was it on the approach to the curve?  To get the complete picture you have to know where the phone was when whatever communication was made.  That means not only syncing up the timestamps of the phone system but the timestamps of the systems on the engine and the signal system.

That takes some work.

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Posted by Norm48327 on Tuesday, June 9, 2015 5:47 AM

Euclid
I could write their final conclusion right now.

I bet you could, and it would be just as wrong as you have been on derailments. You would simply hang the engineer without further ado; no need to find facts. Rumor and inuendo will suffice.

NTSB will, after the investigation, list the probable cause and a list of contributing factors. Should the engineer's cell phone be a factor, they will say so. In the meantime, they can not condemn him based on hearsay or speculation.

You keep telling us how much experience you have in the railroading field. Perhaps you would like to divulge that information and how much experience you have in accident investigation. It would be interesting reading to say the least. I haven't read good fiction in some time.

Time for a reality check.

Norm


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Posted by MrLynn on Tuesday, June 9, 2015 5:38 AM

Euclid

The NTSB were asked directly in that hearing about the engineer's cell-phone use. So they had to answer.  Sounds to me like they were being properly circumspect, and very careful not to indict the engineer without having all the facts.  I really don't see how all the criticism here is justified.

/Mr Lynn

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Posted by erikem on Tuesday, June 9, 2015 12:37 AM

BaltACD

I get the feeling that the cell phone carrier doesn't have their clock synced with GMT - maybe off by 10 to 15 minutes in either direction - which is making it diffcult to correlate to the real world.

That might be true of the accounting systems used by the cellco's.

If they are checking individual cell tower records, it may be that each tower has it's own clock and those clocks are not syncronized with any other.

Some of the communication protocols used by the cell systems required that time be matched to on the order of a microsecond - especially E911 locating using tower triangulation. My somewhat educated guess is that the clocks are kept in synchronism. I'd be surprised if the individual cell towers kept detailed records of the calls made through that tower.

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Posted by wanswheel on Monday, June 8, 2015 11:18 PM

Euclid

Oh Philly Mag.  Engineer’s name in bold, fire-engine-red link.

 

“One of those answers centers on whether embattled Amtrak engineer Brandon Bostian was using his cell phone just before the crash.”

 

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Posted by BaltACD on Monday, June 8, 2015 10:27 PM

I get the feeling that the cell phone carrier doesn't have their clock synced with GMT - maybe off by 10 to 15 minutes in either direction - which is making it diffcult to correlate to the real world.

If they are checking individual cell tower records, it may be that each tower has it's own clock and those clocks are not syncronized with any other.

Just because we expect times to be standardized - doesn't mean they actually are.

I am just thinking outloud - I have no proof of what I have said.

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Posted by Euclid on Monday, June 8, 2015 10:20 PM
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Posted by Euclid on Monday, June 8, 2015 9:52 PM

They have botched it by going public with all the talk about how difficult and confusing it is to figure out the answer, and by admitting that they are worried about making a mistake because they have made a mistake with the same thing in the past.  They may very well find the right answer.  But they have compromised their credibility to claim that they have the right answer.  It was a huge mistake to go public with all of this, starting with the announcement that they were going to check the engineer's cell phone records.

At one point, they even blamed the cell phone carrier for having inaccurate time stamps.  The point is that if they finally tell us they have the right answer, how can we be sure, considering how confused they said they were? 

I would have thought that since they have had problems with this process in the past, they would have learned not to talk about it until they closed the deal.

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Posted by dehusman on Monday, June 8, 2015 9:44 PM

Euclid
The way the NTSB has botched this cell phone issue ....

How have they "botched the cell phone issue"?  I read their press release and having had to work with multiple systems, each with their own timestamp what they say in their press release makes perfect sense.
For the NTSB to announce going after the records and then to announce that it is too complicated for them
Please cite a quotation where they said it was too complicated for them.  What the NTSB press release said was that it was complicated and they were going to take some time to get it right.  Read the May 20 press release on the NTSB website link in the previous post.
 
By going public with all of that, there is no way they are going to be able to legally defend a finding of cell phone use. 
They haven't "gone public" with any finding about cell phone usage, all they have said was they are investigating it.  If they take the time to properly analyze the data and correlate it, it should be very easy to support any conclusion thay come up with.

 

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Posted by Anonymous on Monday, June 8, 2015 8:46 PM

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