Attuvian1 the end result for both us armchair economists and Jimmy Johnson, is pretty much the same and can perhaps be expressed in one word: Maybe. Or, Hmmm.
If not for the uninformed speculation of these forums there would not be much to keep us entertained. It takes little effort to find out why the price of lumber is going through the roof, however, there are lots of opinions on this forum as to why it is with no basis on fact. It helps keep me grounded reading this stuff though. Knowing these same people can vote helps me plan my financial future. Just an observation of a guy that has been trading stock for over fifty years, a Government can harm the economy in short order, but it has to heal itself.
Brent
"All of the world's problems are the result of the difference between how we think and how the world works."
Well, here we are 25 days, 8592 looks, and 252 posts later. It's got 4 stars, whatever they mean. Not to be snarky, but we've managed to hit rainy weather and a number of other side issues along the way. Okay with me as I'm not a real stickler for tidy boxes as long as the discussion gets back on track. But in forum fashion, the track changed abruptly with the very first reply to the OP - nine minutes later. The parallel issue (beside what has driven the increase in prices for our "goodies"), became one of Jimmy Johnson four doors down the street and whether he would be able to get into or stay in the hobby.
I took ECON 101 back at Michigan State under the fabled and (to some notorious) Dr. "Fat" Al Mandelstam. And I can certainly follow the ebbs and flows of the econ portion of the subject. But by this time in the history of this thread, the the end result for both us armchair economists and Jimmy Johnson, is pretty much the same and can perhaps be expressed in one word: Maybe. Or, Hmmm.
This train has been and interesting ride, and the passengers both earnest and friendly. But once I got beyond the second page, the ride proved to be a local. I'll try to manage both my roster and my budget and also wish Jimmy the best. If he shows an interest, I'll invite him to see my stuff or invite him to our club for its monthly "Run Your Train Night". But it feels like this train is slowing. I think this is my stop, guys.
BTW, the Diner is open, but kinda slow. Flo's thinking of doing her nails . . .
John
richhotrain John, you are completely missing the central point of this thread, which is, model railroading is expensive. All of this Econ 101 stuff winds up making an apples and oranges comparison. Speaking of apples and oranges, if a bag of either costs $6.50 today compared to 65 cents 50 years ago, sure, net of inflation, you can argue that the cost has not gone up. But, you cannot apply that economic reasoning so easily to model railroading because what was available 50 years ago is not the same as what is available today. Apples to oranges. Rich
John, you are completely missing the central point of this thread, which is, model railroading is expensive. All of this Econ 101 stuff winds up making an apples and oranges comparison.
Speaking of apples and oranges, if a bag of either costs $6.50 today compared to 65 cents 50 years ago, sure, net of inflation, you can argue that the cost has not gone up.
But, you cannot apply that economic reasoning so easily to model railroading because what was available 50 years ago is not the same as what is available today. Apples to oranges.
Rich
A lot of what is available today is the same as what was available 40-50 years ago. Some of the kits are the same as what was being sold back then, even if it is being sold by a different company. There's no comparing DCC sound equipped locos to your basic DC loco from the 70s or 80s but you can still buy basic DC locos for roughly the same inflation adjusted price you did back then. The best comparison would be Atlas yellow box locos. I don't know if they still come in a yellow box, but I believe they still offer that line. I'd bet you'd find they are no more expensive now than they were then.
I saved the Walthers 50th and 75th anniversary catalogs and like items were still selling for the same inflation adjusted prices as they were a generation earlier. If you make apples to apples comparisons, it is no more expensive to be a model railroader now than it was 40 years ago. If you opt to go for the best technology available, then yes, you are going to pay a premium and you should expect to. You are getting a much better product than what was available to moderlers back then.
Alton Junction
richhotrain Bayfield Transfer Railway I have a 1956 American Flyer catalog.A 1956 American Flyer GP7 cost $25.According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm$25 in 1956 equals $269.69 in 2022. And that's an American Flyer "semi scale" model.Ba dum pum. Here are four reasons why your comments prove nothing. 1. American Flyer is no longer in business, so who 's to say what AF would charge today for a GP7. 2. $25 would be considered expensive by many folks back then, so what's changed? Many folks would consider $269.69 expensive today. 3. Manufacturers don't price their locomotives based upon the Consumer Price Index. In fact, no manufacturers do. 4. Wages have not kept pace with inflation according to the US Bureau of Labor. $269.69 is more expensive today than $25 in 1956, so the price today should be less to avoid being considered more expensive than the same model in 1956. Dum da dum dum. Rich
Bayfield Transfer Railway I have a 1956 American Flyer catalog.A 1956 American Flyer GP7 cost $25.According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm$25 in 1956 equals $269.69 in 2022. And that's an American Flyer "semi scale" model.Ba dum pum.
I have a 1956 American Flyer catalog.A 1956 American Flyer GP7 cost $25.According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm$25 in 1956 equals $269.69 in 2022. And that's an American Flyer "semi scale" model.Ba dum pum.
Here are four reasons why your comments prove nothing.
1. American Flyer is no longer in business, so who 's to say what AF would charge today for a GP7.
2. $25 would be considered expensive by many folks back then, so what's changed? Many folks would consider $269.69 expensive today.
3. Manufacturers don't price their locomotives based upon the Consumer Price Index. In fact, no manufacturers do.
4. Wages have not kept pace with inflation according to the US Bureau of Labor. $269.69 is more expensive today than $25 in 1956, so the price today should be less to avoid being considered more expensive than the same model in 1956.
Dum da dum dum.
If wages haven't kept pace with the price of inflation it means the value of labor has declined. The value of labor is based on the laws of supply and demand. When there are lots of people available to do a job and a lower demand for those skills, employers are not going to have to pay laborers as much. Conversely, jobs skills that are in high demand and not as many people who possess those skills are going to command higher salaries. An extreme example is that of NFL quarterbacks. If you want to compete for championships, you simply must have an elite QB. There might be a half dozen QBs who can carry a team to a championship and another half dozen whose teams could win a championship with if they can surround him with a lot of other talent on both sides of the ball. Since there are 32 teams who want to win championships and about a dozen or so QBs capable of winning a championship, teams are willing to shell out $40 million or more a year for an elite QB. Even above average QBs command $20-30 million. There are second string QBs who get paid $5-6 million to wear a baseball hat and hold a clipboard during games. Nice work if you can get it.
The point is, you can't look at wages as the barometer of inflation since the value of various job skills will vary over the course of time.
John-NYBW 40 years ago the dollar was worth much more than it is now so of course you are going to pay more dollars to get new locos. The hobby hasn't become more expensive. The dollars just don't get you what they used to and that is true of everything you buy.
40 years ago the dollar was worth much more than it is now so of course you are going to pay more dollars to get new locos. The hobby hasn't become more expensive. The dollars just don't get you what they used to and that is true of everything you buy.
The prices of HO cars, both freight and passenger, are higher than Lionel used to be, which is why I switched to HO in the first place. I have steam locomotives I paid less than $100 for are now selling for 2, 3 and 4 hundred dollars. Fortunately, after 40 years in the hobby I really don't need anything else, but I keep looking. Glad I have my "Basement Central", the basement is the only place I can afford to go. People on E-bay are asking over $100 for their junk boxes and refuse to let you select individual pieces. I have better stuff in my junk box. Make me an offer.
richhotrainIt's gonna rain here again tomorrow and again on Friday.
I will see your two days of rain, and raise you six days of rain.
-Kevin
Living the dream.
SeeYou190 richhotrain Speaking of rains, it rained here yeterday. It rains here every day this time of year. -Kevin
richhotrain Speaking of rains, it rained here yeterday.
It rains here every day this time of year.
richhotrainSpeaking of rains, it rained here yeterday.
rrebell Speaking about babys, arround here we ussually have lots of baby ducks and geese this time of year and a bit earlier, this year a few small broods of geese, like 2 or three and no ducks, don't knows why unless it was the late rains.
Speaking about babys, arround here we ussually have lots of baby ducks and geese this time of year and a bit earlier, this year a few small broods of geese, like 2 or three and no ducks, don't knows why unless it was the late rains.
BATMANHome»Model Railroader»Forums»General Discussion (Model Railroader) New Reply Fill out the form below to create a new reply. BATMAN wrote the following post 5 days ago: rrebell When I was a kit, Who put you together and how long did it take them?
Umm...Mom and Dad?
I heard the average modeler can assemble one in about nine months
BTW - "kit" is what you call an young fox - so maybe he WAS a kit when he was little
"Seeing foxes around your neighborhood, even during the day recently? If so, it is likely because kit-rearing season is upon us. Young foxes, called kits or pups, are maturing and spending more time outside of the den, making sightings of them and adult foxes more likel"
MJ4562 ATLANTIC CENTRAL MJ4562 Blue Light Special, perhaps? There are quite a few train simulators and video games out there that allow you to build model railroads virtually and run them. No reason video games and model trains have to be exclusive. Is this a reference to the current interests of young people? My grandson has tried to teach me how to play modern video games - I am a complete failure..... But he likes model trains..... Sheldon Yeah, but but I know I wasn't very clear and changed subjects midstream just like I do to my wife/and she to me.... With regard to video games and young people, I've been noticing some really detailed games featuring trains coming out recently. That tells me that younger people still enjoy trains. Also train simulators allowing you to run real trains or on a model railroad are a big thing now too. I think that's where most kids today will develop their interest in trains. That's what I meant to say.
ATLANTIC CENTRAL MJ4562 Blue Light Special, perhaps? There are quite a few train simulators and video games out there that allow you to build model railroads virtually and run them. No reason video games and model trains have to be exclusive. Is this a reference to the current interests of young people? My grandson has tried to teach me how to play modern video games - I am a complete failure..... But he likes model trains..... Sheldon
MJ4562 Blue Light Special, perhaps? There are quite a few train simulators and video games out there that allow you to build model railroads virtually and run them. No reason video games and model trains have to be exclusive.
Blue Light Special, perhaps?
There are quite a few train simulators and video games out there that allow you to build model railroads virtually and run them. No reason video games and model trains have to be exclusive.
Is this a reference to the current interests of young people? My grandson has tried to teach me how to play modern video games - I am a complete failure.....
But he likes model trains.....
Sheldon
Yeah, but but I know I wasn't very clear and changed subjects midstream just like I do to my wife/and she to me....
With regard to video games and young people, I've been noticing some really detailed games featuring trains coming out recently. That tells me that younger people still enjoy trains. Also train simulators allowing you to run real trains or on a model railroad are a big thing now too. I think that's where most kids today will develop their interest in trains. That's what I meant to say.
I haven't looked into virtual model railroading but I can see lots of advantages. I just don't know how realistic looking the graphics are. I am amazed at what I see in other applications.
rrebell ATLANTIC CENTRAL riogrande5761 Much less than 2 feet and many of us would need reading glasses. I'd rather not view my trains with reading glasses. Just sayin ... Agreed, for me 12"-14" is the current reading glasses threshold. But more importantly, I did not pick HO scale so I could view the trains only from 12" (87 scale feet). I picked HO scale to get the panoramic view. If my primary interest was that "intimate" experiance of standing track side, I would have at the very least picked two rail O Scale or some larger scale. Sheldon I would have to but don't have the space.
ATLANTIC CENTRAL riogrande5761 Much less than 2 feet and many of us would need reading glasses. I'd rather not view my trains with reading glasses. Just sayin ... Agreed, for me 12"-14" is the current reading glasses threshold. But more importantly, I did not pick HO scale so I could view the trains only from 12" (87 scale feet). I picked HO scale to get the panoramic view. If my primary interest was that "intimate" experiance of standing track side, I would have at the very least picked two rail O Scale or some larger scale. Sheldon
riogrande5761 Much less than 2 feet and many of us would need reading glasses. I'd rather not view my trains with reading glasses. Just sayin ...
Much less than 2 feet and many of us would need reading glasses. I'd rather not view my trains with reading glasses. Just sayin ...
Agreed, for me 12"-14" is the current reading glasses threshold.
But more importantly, I did not pick HO scale so I could view the trains only from 12" (87 scale feet).
I picked HO scale to get the panoramic view.
If my primary interest was that "intimate" experiance of standing track side, I would have at the very least picked two rail O Scale or some larger scale.
I would have to but don't have the space.
If I had it to do over again, I think I would opt for S scale. To me it is the ideal size. The drawback is there is a lot less merchandise available for S. It doesn't matter because I have far too much invested in HO to consider switching scales at this point in my life.
snjroy we should consider how communications and small manufacturing have changed the game. With on-line shopping, both used and new, buying and selling hobby items has become a lot more efficient, even when numbers are low. In other words, it is possible to enjoy very niche hobbies thanks to online purchasing, not to mention communities like this one. So like others have said, I don't care if only 5% of kids today are interested in trains. Like many other things, it's become a niche hobby for everyone, and that's not an issue. And to go back to the original question, when I was a kid in the '70s, there was a lot Tyco stuff in the department stores, but the really good stuff was only available in hobby shops at high prices. Today, we can find pretty much all we want online, in a much wider range. New, old, cheap, expensive, half broken, etc. With patience and discipline, a lot can be done with a limited budget. Simon
we should consider how communications and small manufacturing have changed the game. With on-line shopping, both used and new, buying and selling hobby items has become a lot more efficient, even when numbers are low. In other words, it is possible to enjoy very niche hobbies thanks to online purchasing, not to mention communities like this one. So like others have said, I don't care if only 5% of kids today are interested in trains. Like many other things, it's become a niche hobby for everyone, and that's not an issue.
And to go back to the original question, when I was a kid in the '70s, there was a lot Tyco stuff in the department stores, but the really good stuff was only available in hobby shops at high prices. Today, we can find pretty much all we want online, in a much wider range. New, old, cheap, expensive, half broken, etc. With patience and discipline, a lot can be done with a limited budget.
Simon
I almost exclusively get hobby supplies online as I don't have a close shop. I do get my wire offline occasionally as my local NAPA has a reasonable selection for what I need.
Even now I have a bunch of old Tyco and toy level Bachmann items that I have rehabbed to better runners. I even have some old (older than I am) AHM U-boats that are good runners.
Sorry for the typo, though compaired to most, I guess I just never fit the mold. I have always been a rebel, even back to elimentery school where at around 7-8 I thew away my glasses (I have a lazy eye) among other things that I did.
richhotrain BATMAN rrebell When I was a kit, Who put you together and how long did it take them? How much did you cost and was that a discounted price? I was scratchbuilt. Rich
BATMAN rrebell When I was a kit, Who put you together and how long did it take them? How much did you cost and was that a discounted price?
rrebell When I was a kit,
Who put you together and how long did it take them? How much did you cost and was that a discounted price?
I was scratchbuilt.
So was I, except they used parts out of the junk box and the wrong glue to boot!
richhotrain There are a few flaws in your logic. First, we don't know the number of 12 year olds interested in trains then and now. Second, if there are just as many 12 year olds interested in trains now as then in absolute numbers, but the percentage has dropped by 1/2 as the overall population has doubled, then the interest of 12 year olds has declined by 50%. So, there would not be as many 12 year olds now interested in trains as then. There would only be half as many. Third, the overall U.S. population has doubled from 165,000,000 in 1953 to 330,000,000 in 2022. The percentage of 12 year olds has nearly doubled from then to now. There were approximately 2,266,000 12-year olds in 1953 compared to 4,266,000 in 2022. Rich
There are a few flaws in your logic.
First, we don't know the number of 12 year olds interested in trains then and now.
Second, if there are just as many 12 year olds interested in trains now as then in absolute numbers, but the percentage has dropped by 1/2 as the overall population has doubled, then the interest of 12 year olds has declined by 50%. So, there would not be as many 12 year olds now interested in trains as then. There would only be half as many.
Third, the overall U.S. population has doubled from 165,000,000 in 1953 to 330,000,000 in 2022. The percentage of 12 year olds has nearly doubled from then to now. There were approximately 2,266,000 12-year olds in 1953 compared to 4,266,000 in 2022.
While looking at this from a quantitative perspective is interesting, we should consider how communications and small manufacturing have changed the game. With on-line shopping, both used and new, buying and selling hobby items has become a lot more efficient, even when numbers are low. In other words, it is possible to enjoy very niche hobbies thanks to online purchasing, not to mention communities like this one. So like others have said, I don't care if only 5% of kids today are interested in trains. Like many other things, it's become a niche hobby for everyone, and that's not an issue.
rrebellWhen I was a kit,
When I was a kit, when I was very young every boy had a train set but that was the mid 50's, by the 60's they were gone for most kids including myself, much more fun to explore the world. Got back into trains when Postage Stamp trains came out but that didn't last long. Then got back in when I retired for the first time at 29, got bored not working even though I was newly married and the wife accully encuraged me.
Enzoamps My concern is for that 12 year old kid like I was once. Pick an imaginary item from 50 years ago, and versions of it sold for from $1 to $10. And now the same item ranges from $10 to $100. For argument sake call that about the same with inflation. Where I worry is that 50 years ago we could buy them for $1 to $10. But looking at advertising and magazine coverage, it appears today, the recent offerings mainly concentrate on the $40 to $100 part of the range.
My concern is for that 12 year old kid like I was once. Pick an imaginary item from 50 years ago, and versions of it sold for from $1 to $10. And now the same item ranges from $10 to $100. For argument sake call that about the same with inflation. Where I worry is that 50 years ago we could buy them for $1 to $10. But looking at advertising and magazine coverage, it appears today, the recent offerings mainly concentrate on the $40 to $100 part of the range.
No need to worry. Two things:
1) What you get for you money these days is 10 times better, more detailed and accurate.
2) But if that isn't appealing to you, there are still lots of older, less detailed kits you can find in the 10-15 dollar price range. Accurail makes kits for about $15 give or take and you can find a lot of kits for less at train shows.
rrebell Three feet veiwing, that is pretty far, most of my layout is to be veiwed at less than two feet and a lot of viewing is less than a foot.
Three feet veiwing, that is pretty far, most of my layout is to be veiwed at less than two feet and a lot of viewing is less than a foot.
Rio Grande. The Action Road - Focus 1977-1983
John-NYBW I think there are going to be fewer 12 year olds interested in model railroading than back then. That's because they have so many more things to occupy their free time, particularly electronics. I don't see that as good or bad. I really don't care if model railroading has become an old man's hobby because I am an old man (70). If there aren't many kids interested in the hobby, I see no reason to encourage them. Everyone has different interests and there is no reason somebody else's should be the same as mine regardless of age.
ATLANTIC CENTRAL Like John, I have no intention of trying to "save" todays youth from their video games. My grandson does have some interest in the new upcoming layout - we will see. But if not, that's fine.
Like John, I have no intention of trying to "save" todays youth from their video games. My grandson does have some interest in the new upcoming layout - we will see. But if not, that's fine.
I play golf, none of my kids do. I went to to law school and became a lawyer, none of my kids did. I have model railroading as a hobby, none of my kids do.
If today's adolescents want to take up model railroading, that's great. But, if they don't want to take up model railroading, I could care less. If a segment of model railroaders want to spend their time worrying about how to interest today's kids in model railroading, all the more power to them, but I don't spend one minute of my time worrying about it.