richhotrainShill bids happen more often than you might think. Just ask eBay officials.
I have a friend at eBay who works on fraud specifically. So I have asked -- and the answer is that it happens a lot less than it is rumored. So there's one data point.
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Couldn't help myself...had to jump in again on this worn out thread.....
Shill bids do exist - no question about it.
Also, on something I just have to have, I will "snipe" if the auction end times suits my body clock. Why put in your max bid up front, as it will often be raised by others just for kicks.
Yes, I know all the above by experience......."Mobilman44"
ENJOY !
Mobilman44
Living in southeast Texas, formerly modeling the "postwar" Santa Fe and Illinois Central
cuyama richhotrain Shill bids happen more often than you might think. Just ask eBay officials. I have a friend at eBay who works on fraud specifically. So I have asked -- and the answer is that it happens a lot less than it is rumored. So there's one data point.
richhotrain Shill bids happen more often than you might think. Just ask eBay officials.
C'mon, Byron, if it isn't a common occurrence, how come eBay commits so much in writing in its policy section about the practice and goes so far as to point out that it is illegal. Do a Google search, it is filled with discussions from legitimate sources about the extent of the problem. Where it most often happens is on auctions with unusually low starting bids and those auctions with lots of activity. It is easy to rely on surrogates to boost the price in such situations without actually being stuck with the winning bid.
Rich
Alton Junction
Truth seems less attractive than conspiracy theory, so I'll bow out.
... by the way, there are no alligators in the sewers in NYC, either.
I believe the majority of "shill bids" are from friends of individuals just wanting to jumpstart their auction or to test a bidders max.
The habitual use of a shill by a seller is - in my opinion/experience - pretty infrequent. In fact, I've caught on to it only 3 times to the best of my recall, and I've been an Ebay regular since 2000.
cuyama Doughless It does seem odd that the loser knew what the next bid was He didn't.
Doughless It does seem odd that the loser knew what the next bid was
He didn't.
I was going off of what either Kevin or Rich said since I couldn't tell from the bid history that was posted.
I'm no conspiratorist. I only offered the possibility of a person running up the bill for a business reason, not because of spite.
Its a brass caboose. Something that may not get a lot of interest, unlike, say an Athearn GP9. So anybody in the brass collectors market has an interest in not seeing an item go for dirt cheap just because there happens to be not much activity that day. He doesn't even have to be related to the seller.
The more likley explanation is the loser just got tired of creeping up his bid. It has to end at some point if he's already maxed out.
- Douglas
richhotrainOK, Kevin, let's put you to the test.
.
OK, but instead of using your hypothetical example, how about some reality?
Just for you, I just ran this guy up to his maximum bid. You can see the difference between my last bid (I am king64ramone) and his bid are less than $1.00, so I know I found his maximum. That is because the proxy bid did not go the full $1.00 at this level.
OK, I hope that puts to bed the idea that I, or anyone else cannot run up a bid when you outbid us. I only posted this originally because I was offering a warning to people that put in their maximum bid early and let it ride. You could wind up paying more.
Anyway, I am done with this subject. I appologize for all the feathers I unintentionally ruffled.
Happy bidding.
-Kevin
Living the dream.
While I think Kevin's attitude about ebay bidding getting personal is childish, I will agree with him that it is POSSIBLE to to determine someone's Maximum bid, but it can take some effort, there is no easy, secret or magic way to do it, and you run the risk of exceding the bid and possibly paying more for something than you want, especially if you are doing it to be spiteful, and are running someone's bid up beyond what you would want to pay for the item, in which case, Karma is a Wonderful thing
for example, if I wanted to determine Kevin's max bid on the Caboose, using $1.00 as the bid increments( we will keep it consistent, but the increments increase as the price goes up, at certain points)
The current bid is say $75.00, I keep placing bids of $1.00, after 20 bids the current bid is $95.00, I bid $1.00, but the new current bid goes to $96.58, my bid would have increased it to $96.00, and if Kevin's Max bid was $97.00 or higher it would go to $97.00, but I now KNOW that Kevin's CURRENT MAX BID is $96.58, because it is a smaller increment, than the minimum increase, so even though it can't increase to the next standard increment, Kevin had placed his Max Bid while it was still within bidding range, and since it is the Highest bid placed that is the new current winning Bid.
Now, Kevin if he is available can place a new Max Bid, and I would have to start all over again, if I was being Childish, and Spiteful.
If I had bid $96.59, instead of $96.00, I would be the winning bid by a penny, if Kevin wasn't able to enter a new Max Bid before the auction ended, and I would be stuck with a Caboose for $96.59, that I didn't really want, Karma just bit me for being Spiteful and Childish like Kevin.
As the Minimum Bid increment increases I would have to be careful about running the bid up out of spite, the bigger the increments become, the greater the risk in winning an item that I don't really want, or paying a higher price than it is really worth to ME.
So, it IS POSSIBLE to determine another bidder's max bid, but it takes effort, and involves the risk of over paying, or buying an item you don't REALLY want, but it CAN be done.
Doug
ps, no, I didn't figure this out play Silly Childish games, but by having this situation happen (I believe by pure chance, not pettiness) to me on a couple different auctions, and thought through just WHAT happened.
May your flanges always stay BETWEEN the rails
SeeYou190OK, I hope that puts to bed the idea that I, or anyone else cannot run up a bid when you outbid us. I only posted this originally because I was offering a warning to people that put in their maximum bid early and let it ride. You could wind up paying more. .
But not more than you are willing to pay.
I tried to sell my two cents worth, but no one would give me a plug nickel for it.
I don't have a leg to stand on.
What started this latest debate began with Carl's assertion that the only to determine Kevin's max bid was to outbid him. That is absolutely correct. Kevin's challenge to that assertion if fact supported it. Take a look.
SeeYou190 carl425 The only way he can determine what your max bid is is to outbid you. He had no way to know that. Oh yes you can! eBay uses incremental bidding, At low amouts it raises the bid by only $1.00, then autobids up at different increments as the bid gets higher. If you know the increments, you can find a maximum bid. My maximmum bid was $107.89 for this item.
carl425 The only way he can determine what your max bid is is to outbid you. He had no way to know that.
Oh yes you can!
eBay uses incremental bidding, At low amouts it raises the bid by only $1.00, then autobids up at different increments as the bid gets higher. If you know the increments, you can find a maximum bid.
My maximmum bid was $107.89 for this item.
Kevin found the other guy's max bid by outbidding him.
In Kevin's most recent example, he didn't find the other guy's max bid, he merely revealed his own max bid ($32.45). The guy who won could have set his max bid (the silent reserve} at $500.00. Kevin wouldn't know that unless he outbid him.
I agree with Kevin and Challenger. I think its possible to reveal a maximum bid by placing a bid just below the opponent's maximum but within the built in automatic increase. Kevins latest example shows what the winner paid, and he paid his maximum amount. I think I have done this in the past by shear chance, where the winner paid less than 50 cents more than my maximum bid when I tried to snipe something.
What I dont understand is why someone would bid up an item just to reveal a maximum bid, then not go the extra few dollars to try to win it. They're goal of running up the other guy's price could result in their last bid actually being the highest, then they're buying an item they didn't really want.
Doughless I agree with Kevin and Challenger. I think its possible to reveal a maximum bid by placing a bid just below the opponent's maximum but within the built in automatic increase. Kevins latest example shows what the winner paid, and he paid his maximum amount.
I agree with Kevin and Challenger. I think its possible to reveal a maximum bid by placing a bid just below the opponent's maximum but within the built in automatic increase. Kevins latest example shows what the winner paid, and he paid his maximum amount.
Rich if you read my post, it shows exactly how to determine the MAX BID for ALL BIDDERS at THAT point in time, if nobody increases their bids.
If the incremental bid for the price point you are at is say $1.00, then if someone keeps bidding $1.00 and the current bid increase by less than $1.00, you have found the current MAX BID of ALL the bidders.
If the auction starts at $1.00 and Kevin bids $96.58 at the beginning, and bidders keep placing $1.00 bids eventually the bidding will get to $95.00, then the next bidder bids $1.00, normally $97.00 would be the next increment, but Kevins $96.58 bid early is still valid, and the HIGHEST bid, so the current bid (for Kevin) will go to $96.58, because that is the highest valid bid, even though it didn't meet the minimum increment, it didn't need to because when placed it was greater than the minimum increment at that time. ebay can't bid beyond Kevin's Max bid, so it will use the(Kevin's) highest valid bid.
If the bid increases by less than the minimum, you HAVE found the HIGHEST BID OF ALL BIDDERS, do you understand yet?
You obviously don't understand ebay as well as you think you do, you are wrong.
Rich it would work like this
Current Bid
Auction opening Bid $1.00 $0.00
Kevin Bids $96.58 $1.00
Johnny Bids $1.00
Ebay proxy bids for Kevin $2.00 $2.00
Bobby Bids $27.86
Ebay proxy bids for Kevin $28.86
Mike bids $45.00
Ebay proxy bids for Kevin $46.00
Mike bids $96.57
ebay proxy bids for Kevin $96.58
Auction Ends $96.58
Kevin wins by a Penny, minimum increment was $1.00, Kevins original $96.58 bid is valid until exceeded, even if it is ultimately only $0.01 greater than the next lower bidder, because it exceeded the min imum incremental bid, when it was PLACED, and it was never exceeded.
To a Savvy ebayer, a bidder would have known that Kevin's MAX BID was $96.58, because the increase beyond Mike's bid was only$0.01 and did not meet the minimum incremental increase. If Kevin's (or anyone else's) MAX BID had been more, it would have increased by more than the Penny that Kevin won by.
The Current Bid increased by less than the minimum incremental bid increase, Ergo, the MAX BID of ALL BIDDERS has been reached. There is no more reserve bid left in any bidders MAX BID.
As much as it pains me to say it, Kevin Wins, this Hypothetical auction, and the argument with you.
Please tell me that you Finally understand how this works. It IS POSSIBLE to determine another bidders MAX BID, without, out bidding them.
I Absolutely HATE the forum software, I had all the bids in nice columns, and when I submitted the reply, for GAWD knows reasons, it shifted all of Kevin's bids to under his bid entry, not in the spread sheet I laid out, damned if I know WHY it does that, but it sure gets frustrating.
I have had repeated issues trying to organize information in columns here before, one would think that a publishing company would have better software, or whatever the issue is, it's not like this is Joe's Donut's forum, where his Brother in Law built his site as a favor
Goodness, I'm just happy there is a Forum and thank Kalmbach for it.
I guess I'm just a bit too logical........If one likes Ebay, use it. If one does not like Ebay, go elsewhere.
That said, I would suggest to the powers that be that its time to shut this thread down..................
I think that mobilman44 is right. This thread should be locked.
richhotrain Doughless I agree with Kevin and Challenger. I think its possible to reveal a maximum bid by placing a bid just below the opponent's maximum but within the built in automatic increase. Kevins latest example shows what the winner paid, and he paid his maximum amount. I gotta stop replying because I keep trying to make the same point. In Kevin's example, the winner did not necessarily pay his maximum amount. He only had to pay an amount incrementally higher (as predetermine by eBay rules) than the then highest bid. The winning bid did not reveal the amount of the silent reserve that the winning bidder had placed. It did reveal the maximum bid of the second place finisher. Rich
I gotta stop replying because I keep trying to make the same point. In Kevin's example, the winner did not necessarily pay his maximum amount. He only had to pay an amount incrementally higher (as predetermine by eBay rules) than the then highest bid. The winning bid did not reveal the amount of the silent reserve that the winning bidder had placed. It did reveal the maximum bid of the second place finisher.
Rich. Just asking a question. If ebay incrementally raises bids, say $3.00, and I bid $100.50, and the prevailing maximum silent bid is $102.00, will ebay say..
I am outbid, and then show the current bid for the item at $102.00? (It can't show the current winning bid at $103.50 because nobody has bid that much)
If not, what other mount will show on the screen as the current winning bid?
I think it will show the $102. If this is the case, then I've just exposed the maximum silent bid without outbidding it.
richhotrain I think that mobilman44 is right. This thread should be locked. Rich
Wow, you can not only not understand a simple concept, but there is no reason to lock this thread, if you aren't interested in it, unsubscribe to it, then don't open it.
The title of the thread is pretty clear as to what the content is about, if you're not interested don't OPEN the thread, it takes a deliberate act to open and read a thread, some titles are a bit vague as to the subject of the thread, if you are not interested, just back button out, and don't open the thread again, Pretty Simple.
There have been countless threads that I opened, and wasn't interested in, just backed out, and left it for those who were interested, I have seen threads about things like the color of the firebrick in the firebox of a Pennsy K4, never mind, I'm not interested, but you guys go ahead and enjoy your discussion.
Just because YOU aren't interested in a thread, it doesn't need to be closed.
Doughless richhotrain Doughless I agree with Kevin and Challenger. I think its possible to reveal a maximum bid by placing a bid just below the opponent's maximum but within the built in automatic increase. Kevins latest example shows what the winner paid, and he paid his maximum amount. I gotta stop replying because I keep trying to make the same point. In Kevin's example, the winner did not necessarily pay his maximum amount. He only had to pay an amount incrementally higher (as predetermine by eBay rules) than the then highest bid. The winning bid did not reveal the amount of the silent reserve that the winning bidder had placed. It did reveal the maximum bid of the second place finisher. Rich Rich. Just asking a question. If ebay incrementally raises bids, say $3.00, and I bid $100.50, and the prevailing maximum silent bid is $102.00, will ebay say.. I am outbid, and then show the current bid for the item at $102.00? (It can't show the current winning bid at $103.50 because nobody has bid that much) If not, what other mount will show on the screen as the current winning bid? I think it will show the $102. If this is the case, then I've just exposed the maximum silent bid without outbidding it.
Doughless, using your scenario, of $3.00 incremental bids, and the current MAX BID of $102.00, if you bid $100.50, then ebay will make the new current bid $102.00, and the bidder who bid that would then be the current High Bidder.
But with the new current bid being less than what the incremental minimum bid SHOULD have advanced the current bid to, you will KNOW, that $102.00 is the current MAX BID of all bidders, if there was a current max bid higher it would have raised the current bid to the next incremental bid level, the fact that the bid only increased $1.50, instead of $3.00 tells you there weren't any bids high enough to reach the next increment, and the bidding is AT, the current MAX BID.
A Bidder can of course enter a NEW Max Bid, and the process would start all over, if you were trying to determine the MAX BID.
In your scenario, if you had bid the same $102.00 that you didn't know had already been bid, the current max bid, would still be $102.00 and the first bidder to have bid would still be the current high bidder, as his bid preceeded yours, but again the current bid being what you bid, and that you were NOT the current high bidder would tell you that the current max bid had been reached. If you had bid $102.01, you would then be the new high bidder, even though your bid didn't meet the incremental increase over the other bidders bid, because it still met the minimum increase over the current high bid WHEN YOU PLACED your bid.
Rich doesn't seem to understand that the ONLY reason the current bid increased by less than the minimum incremental bid, was that it COULDN'T, a less than incremental increase in the current bid, tells anyone that is paying attention, the current MAX BID has been reached.
Another common misconception about ebay, is that people often refer to ebay, as a "Silent Auction" which it is NOT, in a True "Silent Auction" everbody submits ONE sealed bid, and has no idea, what anyone else has bid, until all the bids are opened, and whoever placed the highest single bid Wins, there is no competive back and forth bidding in a Silent Auction, everbody cast one bid, and the auction ends.
Again, a lot of people claim that ebay isn't like a "REAL AUCTION", which again is false, ebay is just as Real an auction as any auction house is, because of the proxy bidding, you do reveal your "Maximum Bid" to the auctioneer, which you can increase before auction end, but unlike a Real Auction the auctioneer wont bid your max.
It really is like what many consider a "Real Auction", in that in a Real auction, say it is a nice Project car, classic Mustang, you elvaluate the car, and in your mind you decide, I will pay up to $10,000 for that Pony Car, what you have decided in your mind, directly equates with you Maximum Bid submitted with ebay, in a live auction you CAN bid up to that, but you don't PAY that unless another bidder bids it up to your max Bid, ebay works the same way, but by proxy bidding.
In the Pony Car auction you may decide to pay up to $10,000, the auction starts and the bidding goes up to $7,000, you Bid $7,500, another bids $8,000, so you bid $8,500, and nobody else bids again, so you win at $8,500, even though in your mind you had decided to bid up to $10,000 you didn't have to, even in a "Real Auction" the winning bid is really determined by the second highest bidder, JUST LIKE ebay. The only real difference, is that ebay sets a HARD Auction End Time, but that really isn't the big deal some make it out to be, IF you truly bid what your TRUE max bid would be, it will end up the same. There are some that will get bidders remorse, because they didn't bid what their TRUE max bid should have been, and then later wish that they had bid more. Some times someone will want something more, just because Johnny wants it too, and when they see that Johnny wanted it MORE (IE, was willing to PAY MORE for it) then they say that I would have paid that, but they wouldn't if Johnny didn't want it too.
Some people Really DO understand how ebay works, and some just don't,
I'm rather enjoying this discussion and don't see any need to lock the thread.
The OP began by asking what a reasonable offer is for an item that he would like to get $750 for. He sees the item in a retail store for $800 or $850 (is that negotiable) and he is insulted that someone offers him $475. The original poster seems to feel that Ebay's fees are out-of-line as well.
Then the discussion goes around to all the Ebay options out there which, to a buyer or a seller, just makes the experience all the more worthwhile.. Is there any shill bidding going on? I can't say for sure but I've never been a victim of it.
There have been times where I've been asked to "make me an offer" both in person and I've chosen the option several times at Ebay. Even the first house I bought I made an offer that was about 60% of asking price.
Turns out the seller came back with a counter-offer at about 65% and then let me have the John Deere garden tractor that was in the garage! I'm not ashamed to make low offers, if it insults the seller, then I apologise and walk away.
I can't think of one time where I was disappointed enough to leave less than perfect feedback for a buyer or a seller.
For the most part, I've found some pretty interesting "stuff" both for model railroading and prototype railroads.
Anyone can visit the Ebay site and look up some of the buying guides offered there or look at the Ebay Community
https://community.ebay.com/
and see discussions and hints for both buyers and sellers. There are lots of FAQs and listing examples there, too.
I'm glad M-R hosts this form for us as well AND I'm glad there's Ebay, too. They both have their place for making my hobby more enjoyable.
Thank You
Ed
challenger3980Another common misconception about ebay, is that people often refer to ebay, as a "Silent Auction" which it is NOT, in a True "Silent Auction" everbody submits ONE sealed bid, and has no idea, what anyone else has bid, until all the bids are opened, and whoever placed the highest single bid Wins, there is no competive back and forth bidding in a Silent Auction, everbody cast one bid, and the auction ends.
A silent auction is where the live bidding is replaced by a sheet of paper next to the item that is for sale. Bidders write their name and bid, which is higher than the previous line, on the next line of the sheet. Bidders can freely check back during the auction and bid again if they choose.
Here's an example of the sheet used for a silent auction:
I have the right to remain silent. By posting here I have given up that right and accept that anything I say can and will be used as evidence to critique me.
Well.............as the original poster I have to say this has gotten so far off the topic it's just stupid. I can't see how it drifted so far away from what a "reasonable offer " is but it has.
I don't believe it needs to be locked or not as the forums should be here for those that enjoy discussions even if they ignore the original topic completely. Because someone doesn't like the topic or is tired of reading the posts doesn't warrant locking it. Others obviously seem to still have stuff to add and argue about so just let them and when you see the next post just skip it. Pretty simple solution!
oldline1
Carl, my mistake, it was late, on the forth day of what ended up a 65 hour week, I was mixed up Silent Auction with sealed bid auction, my Bad.
Ebay IS more like a "Real Auction" than some realize though, the concept of submitting your max bid seems to confuse some, but it is needed in proxy bidding like ebay uses. Your submitted max bid is just like your mentally predecided bid limit, you just don't have to be present to continue bidding, It can still be increased like a mental bid limit, and you won't necessarily pay either your max bid, or your mental limit.
Kerry
challenger3980 Doughless, using your scenario, of $3.00 incremental bids, and the current MAX BID of $102.00, if you bid $100.50, then ebay will make the new current bid $102.00, and the bidder who bid that would then be the current High Bidder. But with the new current bid being less than what the incremental minimum bid SHOULD have advanced the current bid to, you will KNOW, that $102.00 is the current MAX BID of all bidders.... tells you there weren't any bids high enough to reach the next increment, and the bidding is AT, the current MAX BID.
But with the new current bid being less than what the incremental minimum bid SHOULD have advanced the current bid to, you will KNOW, that $102.00 is the current MAX BID of all bidders.... tells you there weren't any bids high enough to reach the next increment, and the bidding is AT, the current MAX BID.
That's what I thought. It is possible to expose the formerly silent maximum bid without outbidding an opponent by placing a bid within the automatic incremental increase. (It usually takes a bunch of little bids to work your way up to that spot)
I can see where someone might think that is a strategy for winning an item.....revealing a max bid with the thought of then placing a higher maximum bid near the auction's end, so that you are in the lead only once, at auction's end.
The strategy would imply that the bidder is looking for a bargain, not necessarily looking for the item specifically, and assumes others are looking for a bargain and not the item specifically. Those who are wanting to by the item, not necessarily a bargain, would just place a maximum bid and walk away.
The guy who simply wants the item is going to place a max bid that is probably higher than all of the bargain hunters out there.
GMPULLMAN,
I agree, that if posed TACTFULLY, there is no need for someone to be offended by an offer. Several years ago there was an O Gauge locomotive listed on ebay, with a BIN/MAO (Buy It Now/Make An Offer) option, it had been listed for quite awhile, with several auction relistings.
I Made an offer that was low, and some may have been offended by, BUT, with the offer, I included a message to the seller, that I realized my offer was low, but the item had been listed for a long time, and that it was something that I really would like to have, but at the time, my offer was all that I could justify for something that was a want, not a need, and Thanked him for considering my offer.
The seller replied that he understood, and wasn't offended by the offer, Thanked me for making it, and respectfully declined.
The seller understood, I didn't mean to offend, and replied Politely, we didn't make a sale, but both parties felt Good about the results.
GNMT76I don't know if this specific problem has been addressed in this very long thread, so here goes. I dupmed eBay permanently two years ago after it automatically tripled the amount of postage to ship a few very lightweight HO items. My posted fee was the actual, determined at the Post Office: $2.34. Feebay charged the customer over $6. When I called to complain, all I was told by a very arrogant individual was that "the system" determined the fee. The fact that it was far beyond the actual cost did not matter. I call that theft.
GNMT76,
I agree that ebay setting the shipping fee is wrong, I have only Sold a couple items, and that was before this policy was evidently implemented.
I wouldn't call it "Theft" especially on ebay's part, because the shipping fee goes to the seller, not ebay, ebay does get a percentage of the shipping fee, but not enough I'm sure to encourage that.
If you feel that the shipping charge is too high, as the seller, you have the option of refunding the overcharge, deduct the percentage that ebay charges if you want, I would expect that would almost GUARANTEE, Positive feedback from the buyer, and then you wouldn't feel like you took advantage of the situation.
It would only take a small effort, granted you Shouldn't have to, but everyone would be Happy in the end. It is not something that I would "Dump ebay Permanently" over, there are too many Benefits to ebay compared to the negatives, in MY OPINION, ymmv,
Doughless,
Yes it is POSSIBLE, to determine the max bid, without outbidding the high bidder, by using minimum increment bids, and it may take a lot of bidding to do it, and the key is to watch the actual bid increase, that is the clue. less than minimum bid increase you are there. But I think that it usually happens more by chance than intent.
That would be a bad bidding strategy, you would be running the bid up on yoursef, and give everyone else an opportunityto increase their max bid before auction end, potentially increasing the final price.
To win with the lowest possible price, if you are available to bid AT auction end, don't bid AT ALL, until the final 5 seconds or less of the auction, then bid the ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM, that you would be willing to pay, you will either Win the item at a price you are comfortable with, or it will sell for more than you are willing to pay.
As mentioned before, a bidder needs to be Mature enough to determine what their "TRUE MAXIMUM BID" is, and not later decide that because Johnny wants it too, it is now worth more to me. If you bid that way, and someone else wins, then you decide that you would have paid more than what the final price was, then you didn't place your "TRUE" maximum bid. I will usually decide what the MOST I would pay for something, then add a buck or two, then I am definitely at the point where if someone else wins, they really did want it more than me. I may have really wanted the item, but NOT at the final price.