How many versions of say, the Dash 9 were there? Basically 1.
SD60? essentially 3 Spartan, 3 window and 2 window.
The SD40-2 is pretty much the last loco that had significant variety with 3 reasonably distinct phases (ignoring angled blower duct) and multiple nose lengths. Yet even so, the Blue Box SD40-2 is a great compromise. Upgrading it with snoot or backdating the grills, or adding Q-fans and an exhaust silencer are all very doable upgrades.
Air Conditioners, GPS domes, specific Horns and horn locations. I don't see a need to make that part of the RTR market.
And to be fair, these models haven't gone away. There are still there and being mass produced, they're just RTR now with a higher price.
blownout cylinder It may very well be in Viet Nam---or---someplace in Africa. If it does give up it will just fold up; and go to razor blades----
It may very well be in Viet Nam---or---someplace in Africa. If it does give up it will just fold up; and go to razor blades----
Locomotive building requires skilled labor at very low wages relative to the US. It is not easily learned or taught, as experiences with trying to set up locomotive production in India and Brazil have shown. Italy and Japan had a cultural history of fine hand work with jeweler like precision. But they also had a willingness to learn and do something beside traditional jewelry and crafts. Even then, initial locomotive production from Italy (remember Aristo-Craft?), Japan (very early brass), Korea, and even China was little better than trainset junk. Quality improved dramatically and fairly quickly; they had to to survive. For plastic and die-cast production, you also need skilled die cutters, again at low wages.
When MPC owned Lionel in the 1970s they made an attempt to move production to Mexico with unskilled labor. It was a dismal failure due to output quality that was too crummy to sell. After a little over a year, production was moved back to Michigan, where it stayed until the 1990s. Lionel was finally forced to move production to Korea and China because its competitors were eating Lionel's lunch.
I'm not familiar enough with Africa to state with certainty, but I don't believe the required infrastructure and culture exists there. South America and Latin America might be more successful, but I'm not sure the wage differential is great enough any more.
just anecdotal evidence to support my conclusions
Fred W
I always wondered about why more manufacturing had not gone to Africa, I guess it has just not been stable enough. I know some takes place in Mexico but you would think it would be more. I think the last couple of posts really start to nail down where the hobby is going. Just from my perspective of buying, except for a few items, most of what I have purchased in the last 10 year has not been new as in not purchased from a LHS or Internet store but from people changing scales, thinning rosters, bad gifts, something they bought as part of something else, family problems. I have a pile of never out of the box (except by me) hobby stuff, Proto 2000 engines and cars and lots of other stuff of similar qualities. Once I finish my layout I will be thinning out my collection for sure, it is a large layout but how many billboard reefers do I need (have over 30 atlas).
fwrightFinally, my cloudy crystal ball says there will be one more stab at mass production in another country besides China. I doubt it will be India; several have tried and failed there already. Each cycle of mass production, followed by rising prices, has been shorter and shorter. The Italian craftsmen lasted for several decades. The Japanese brass model worked well for 20 years. Korean brass and plastic was much shorter lived. Chinese plastic has been going strong for about 15 years, lasting longer because a prolonged US economic boom accommodated doubling of prices without much complaint. I give Chinese mass production perhaps another 5 years before production shifts to Viet Nam or gives up.
Any argument carried far enough will end up in Semantics--Hartz's law of rhetoric Emerald. Leemer and Southern The route of the Sceptre Express Barry
I just started my blog site...more stuff to come...
http://modeltrainswithmusic.blogspot.ca/
CNJ831Before closing this post, I would like to also expand on your statement: The reduction in roster growth will also put renewed emphasis on prototypical accuracy - a repeat of the brass "industry". This is indeed exactly how the hobby's future is going to unfold, as I've pointed out a number of times previously. And prototypical accuracy will justify ever increasing prices, too. Especially recall just how the brass segment of the hobby played out over the years. Once a major part of the HO hobby, producing thousands of models, it has today almost ceased to exist for the mainstream of the hobby. What do posters think the fate of the HO hobby will be when plastic diesels reach $500 per and steamers $1,000 not all that many years from now? It's not a pretty picture. CNJ831
This is indeed exactly how the hobby's future is going to unfold, as I've pointed out a number of times previously. And prototypical accuracy will justify ever increasing prices, too. Especially recall just how the brass segment of the hobby played out over the years. Once a major part of the HO hobby, producing thousands of models, it has today almost ceased to exist for the mainstream of the hobby. What do posters think the fate of the HO hobby will be when plastic diesels reach $500 per and steamers $1,000 not all that many years from now? It's not a pretty picture.
CNJ831
CNJ
I don't think the end of the world will happen for the hobby. Yes, the rich choice of RTR locomotives will eventually disappear. In my world, it never has been there. Kids, other priorities, and not being high enough on the economic ladder always kept brass just out of my reach. I might buy one $300 locomotive every 2-3 years, and then it has to be exactly what I want for my layout to justify that money. A backdated Blackstone C-16 might get my lust going enough to act upon. As great as they are, new brass Shays at $700+ don't turn me on enough to ditch building my Keystone and MDC Shays.
The costs of scale 3 rail O chased me into just O27 and the more toy-like stuff until I tired of RTR and the kids were old enough to want different hobbies, too.
Now in HO and HOn3, the most I have paid for a locomotive was $150 for an HOn3 FED 2-6-0, with another $150 in remotoring, new drive, and detail parts. All the rest have been $125 or less, including the drive changes (Keystone Shays, Model Power Baldwins, MDC and Tyco loco kits). My roster is less than 10, and is likely to remain that way, with replacement on a 1 for 1basis when something better comes along and my wallet permits.
In the meantime, the proliferation of new accurate car kits for my era from small manufacturers has more than made up for the demise of the Roundhouse OT series kits. Yes, the new kits total $30 to $40 when trucks and couplers and paint are added - but how many do I need? If I had a large enough layout to need a roster of 100 cars, price per kit would be a concern. But so would time for the craftsman kits or scratch-building for a large roster.
And I think that's where the rising prices will have the most impact - the number of basement filling layouts that depend on RTR to get to operations with 3 years. In the 1950s, small HO layouts were much more common than they are today - and they were even featured in the photos in MR. Both prices and time to build everything prevented "everybody" from filling a room or basement. For many in the hobby since 1990, money has not been the limitation on layout size - time and space have been. In the future, money will again become a limiting factor for many more than it is today.
Finally, my cloudy crystal ball says there will be one more stab at mass production in another country besides China. I doubt it will be India; several have tried and failed there already. Each cycle of mass production, followed by rising prices, has been shorter and shorter. The Italian craftsmen lasted for several decades. The Japanese brass model worked well for 20 years. Korean brass and plastic was much shorter lived. Chinese plastic has been going strong for about 15 years, lasting longer because a prolonged US economic boom accommodated doubling of prices without much complaint. I give Chinese mass production perhaps another 5 years before production shifts to Viet Nam or gives up.
again my opinions are just that
The market will dictate where prices go. Bottom line is the manufacturers will push their margins as hard as they can. It's what people are willing to pay that dictates the price. In the end, the things that will keep the hobby alive are started trains sets and good ole Thomas. As long as people can get in the hobby like most here did, by getting that first train set as a kid, there will be model railroading. If prices for locomotives continue to rise, it will be because of inflation, but the relative price compared to other items will be the same IMO.
Springfield PA
Fred - I do largely agree with nearly all of what you posted, but I do see a number of significant caveats involved.
I can't speak to what goes on in N-gauge, but with regard to HO, while it's possibly true that in the past some hobbyists switched from steamers to diesels for better operating characteristics, in the last decade I've seen a decided back-dating shift in motivepower on the layouts of more serious hobbyists, making steamers and modeling the transition era more popular than ever.
Whether, or not, modelers today care about prototypical accuracy clearly does influence what people buy, what companies offer and at what price they sell items for. Demand, based a great deal on Internet peer pressure, for accurate models justifies increasingly limited runs and ever higher selling prices by the manufacturers.
While the "biggest and baddest" steamers were around until the demise of steam on some of the giant class 1 railroads, so were much smaller wheel arrangements on a vastly larger number of the smaller class 1 and 2 roads. I'd speculate that 90% of layouts today are far too small to realistically represent operation with huge steamers and actually cry out for more reasonably-sized locomotives, The huge steam offered today is directly aimed at the increasing percentage (relative to actual modelers) of non-modeling collectors in the hobby. How often do we see images of large rosters of locomotives - all sitting on just a table or plywood board - posted here? Remember the fella with the 23 Big Boys, or several folks with 100+ diesel rosters and essentially no layouts?
Before closing this post, I would like to also expand on your statement: The reduction in roster growth will also put renewed emphasis on prototypical accuracy - a repeat of the brass "industry". This is indeed exactly how the hobby's future is going to unfold, as I've pointed out a number of times previously. And prototypical accuracy will justify ever increasing prices, too. Especially recall just how the brass segment of the hobby played out over the years. Once a major part of the HO hobby, producing thousands of models, it has today almost ceased to exist for the mainstream of the hobby. What do posters think the fate of the HO hobby will be when plastic diesels reach $500 per and steamers $1,000 not all that many years from now? It's not a pretty picture.
RedGrey62EDIT: rrebell, type "hobby dying" without quotes into the Search Community box, you'll see the threads The only way any of this becomes relevant to the original topic is if manufacturers are considering the shrinking or growing number of modelers in their strategic plan...... In the end, it really doesn't matter what the hobby is doing as long as there are people willing to take the chance on producing stuff for it.Ricky
The only way any of this becomes relevant to the original topic is if manufacturers are considering the shrinking or growing number of modelers in their strategic plan...... In the end, it really doesn't matter what the hobby is doing as long as there are people willing to take the chance on producing stuff for it.
Ricky
Some important words of wisdom, since very few of us serve as strategic planners for any of the model railroading manufacturers.
And CNJ and Andre continue to talk past each other. Andre is talking production of cars and structures; CNJ is talking mass model locomotive production.
On the much lamented and discussed small steam locomotive front, I would suggest that a couple of trends have occurred. This is based on reading between the lines, observations of the market and three better-stocked LHS.
as always, my thoughts, your choices
Once again, Andre, you post a very wordy but essentially questionable series of comparisons in some sort of attempt to make a point. I would only ask that you actually take the time to research and evaluate the actual situations and conditions, rather than simply either pulling up odd items as supposed examples, or presenting half truths. Still, I'll make the gesture of responding to your post.
Locomotive prices of new models have steadily increased almost yearly since the early 2000's and at a rate far exceeding any supposed (but honestly in no way applicable) inflation figures. In addition, the types of steam locomotives being produced are almost all very large, top-of-the-line-expensive, types...the sort that "collectors" buy, but which are largely unsuitable for application to the average layout. Switchers and locos of more modest wheel arrangement would have all but disappeared from the marketplace in the last few years were it not for Bachmann. When a market shrinks, one of the obvious approaches to maintaining your cash flow is to aim your product at the remaining wealthy segment and steadily jack up your prices. And, yes, I do have some contacts within the industry and I can tell you that you've only begun to see where prices are going.
As to hobbyists today being so sophisticated about prototypes and so on, guess again. The vast majority of hobbyists seem to know mainly only what they are told is, or isn't, correct about a given model by a handful of Internet gurus. Just peruse the threads and posts that one finds on the more popular forums and this becomes dramatically obvious. I'd venture that there is little more individual prototype sophistication abroad today among hobbyists than there was a quarter century ago.
Concerning the supposed array of products you talk about available today as far exceeding that in the past, have you honestly tried to buy most of them? If you had, you'd find that, because of limited runs, most are currently no longer available at local venues, even just a few months following their issue date. On paper there's a broad selection, but not in a buying reality. Just try running the pages of the on-line Walthers and see what's actually in-stock. A huge percentage is either OOP, or arrival date unknown. In relation to this, you say that you are like a kid in a candy store with all that is being offered, yet by your own admission you've previously indicated that you are a non-modeler. So are you actually buying anything and if not, how does your statement make any sense?
As I've said before, I'm no doom and gloomer, I simply deal in realities, statistics and trends and what they indicate, but I do see most hobbyists as painfully ignorant of any accurate information regarding the current state of the hobby, as well as its past. There's also a strange and all-pervasive Pollyanna outlook on the situation among hobbyists that prevents most of them from accepting the true state of affairs when it's presented.
Incidentally, with regard to the electric razors, when Lawrence Cowen left Lionel in its death throes, he moved on to a position with a nationally known electric razor manufacturer. He indicated that there was little difference between the business of making and selling model trains and electric razors, with many of the parts even coming from the same outlets. Don't be so foolish as to think that at least some today's larger companies couldn't make some sort of similar transitions to another product line if things really started falling apart.
So does pricing your product ever higher in an attempt to find out what is the absolute maximum the traffic will bear. When the big boys with all that supposed business sense, but no understanding of, or really caring about, the hobbyist, allow prices to soar beyond the point of no return and it all comes tumbling down, look for them to leave the shambles and convert to the manufacture of electric razors, or something similar without caring, or missing a beat.
So you've got hard evidence that this is the ultimate goal of the the "big boys" is to charge all the traffic will bear? Do hobby industrry "whistle blowers' have you on speed dial and you're privy to the conspiracy? As for the manufacture of electric razors, I doubt it. The big boys who do that would make sure an upstart attempt from a collapsing BLI, MTH or Athearn failed out of the chute. In any case, if the hobby manufacturers fail, who's going to provide the capital to go into another line of business??
You're basing this so call lack of understanding of the hobbyist on what? There is more being produced in more variety in more scales now than at any time in the past. We have stuff available to us now that we wouldn't even dare dream about not all that long ago. Back when I bought my first piece of rolling stock, only Silver Streak made anything that remotely looked like a prototype SP caboose. Now I can get correct SP cabooses in multiple classes in both RTR and kits in multiple scales. 'Course, I'll pay more than $40 for the kits (e.g. AMB, TraincCat), but these aren't the big boys, so maybe it's the boutique suppliers who are trying to kill the hobby. Either that or they're fellow travelers in the vast conspiracy to bankrupt the poor modeler.
You also seem to forget is that old time modelers weren't all that up to speed on the prototype. I don't have the issue handy, but someone wrote in MR many years ago that he was surprised to find that a lot of model railroaders weren't even interested in the prototype. I don't mean that they weren't interested in a given railroad, but they weren't interested at all in real railroads, they just liked miniature trains.
It's kind of ironic that an N scaler has to pay well over $40 for a TrainCat C30-5/6 caboose kit (less trucks, couplers and undecorated to boot) but Athearn will supply RTR models of the C50-7/8/9 cabeese for an MSRP of $29.98. The problem, of course, is that the C50 series cabooses aren't suitable for the transition era, so there's no substitution. 'Course, if I were a conspiracy theorist, I'd insist that Athearn is trying to kill off transition era modeling in N with their N scale RTR offerings that undercut available N scale transition era rolling stock kits. For that matter, Walther's Platinum Line RTR SP C30-1 caboose is cheaper than AMB's kit for the same thing. So who's the one gouging the poor hobbyist?
You want to go around chanting lamentations and wearing sackcloth and ashes because (SURPRISE!!) things change, knock your socks off. Me, I'm still pinching myself because I'm still a kid in a candy store only it's one that's orders of magnitude bigger and better than it was 50 years ago. I don't want a generic"SP Caboose", I want an SP C30-5 bay window caboose and I want it as it appeared in 1949, not as it appeared post-1955 with the orange ends and the Gothic lettering. . Kits are available and Micro-Scale's got the correct decals. 50 years ago, that kind of choice didn't exist. People are lot more savvy about prototype railroading today, even the free-lancers like Sheldon who, even if they model a totally fictional line, will want to do it in a manner that doesn't stretch plausibility to the breaking point and beyond. If this is detrimental to the hobby, then let's work harder to "kill" it.
Andre
And don't get me started on idiot vendors at swap meets.
Well I did as you suggested and only found out about the state of hobby shops in Arkansas (which is good by the way). The only other hard facts I could find out there were the new conventions opening up to more and more people every year and the decline of companies like Gats but they were their own worst enemy as I have dealt directly with them and they didn't want to change! I thought they had died completely but it seams that they are still around only much smaller and another company is slowly grabbing their old territory. The reason Gats died is 4 or 5 things, First table prices doubled, additional fees doubled (less tables, less people like me bottom feeding), second ticket prices doubled and parking fees went up sometimes with no outside parking. I mean at the last show I went to a friend who had a table paid $75.00 a table for two tables, luckily he did not need power as that is a $75.00 fee or more as union people have to run the extension cord (plug in and drop a cord from above) on top of that $8-10 to park (forgot which was correct for this show) but no free parking for vendors like there used to be.
CNJ831 rrebell Oh I would beleive it but it has to be hard numbers!!!!!!!!!!!! Most of what you see as decline are surveys of people that belong to the NMRA and such, your average modeler dose not belong to them and many never have. What you see out there is change and we are into even bigger changes in the near future and they will come faster and faster. I suggest that you go back and look up some of the extensive threads that addressed this subject and to which I supplied pages of cited, verifiable, information. Nobody here bothers to do research, but are overly willing to offer contrary baseless opinion without end. The real information is out there...one only needs to carefully look for and then accept it. CNJ831
rrebell Oh I would beleive it but it has to be hard numbers!!!!!!!!!!!! Most of what you see as decline are surveys of people that belong to the NMRA and such, your average modeler dose not belong to them and many never have. What you see out there is change and we are into even bigger changes in the near future and they will come faster and faster.
Oh I would beleive it but it has to be hard numbers!!!!!!!!!!!! Most of what you see as decline are surveys of people that belong to the NMRA and such, your average modeler dose not belong to them and many never have. What you see out there is change and we are into even bigger changes in the near future and they will come faster and faster.
I suggest that you go back and look up some of the extensive threads that addressed this subject and to which I supplied pages of cited, verifiable, information. Nobody here bothers to do research, but are overly willing to offer contrary baseless opinion without end. The real information is out there...one only needs to carefully look for and then accept it.
EDIT: rrebell, type "hobby dying" without quotes into the Search Community box, you'll see the threads
The only way any of this becomes relevant to the original topic is if manufacturers are considering the shrinking or growing number of modelers in their strategic plan. I've replied to previous threads on this topic and while I may not entirely agree with CNJ831, he is absolutely correct in that most of us putting more feeling than fact (guilty as charged) into our responses. In the end, it really doesn't matter what the hobby is doing as long as there are people willing to take the chance on producing stuff for it.
Manufacturers come and go, some evolve, some get absorbed into other compaines. It is not unique to the model railroad world. While there are some examples of companies that continue to hang on with their existing products and methods, they usually represent a very small share in the overall market. For whatever reason, some companies have figured that kits still fit into their strategic plan while others have gone strictly RTR. There are many smaller companies making kits, most very speciallized and small runs resulting in kits that cost as much as RTR.
If you want relatively low cost, highly detailed and made in the USA (or whatever country you hail from), I would recommend scratchbuilding. Boxcars, flat cars, reefers some hopper/covered hoppers and gondolas can be made from sheet/strip styrene, commercial doors, wire, commercial trucks and couplers and other commercial superdetailing parts if you don't want to make them yourself. Tank cars, hoppers, covered hoppers (like center flow) and others may be a bit tougher due to complex curves and such but not impossible. Plans are out there in print, on the internet or can be derived from photos. Paint is readily available as are most decals, but if not, make you're own.
Finally, if your happy with minimal detail, great, if you want more detail, be prepared to pay a little more. If you need to change and adapt to the changing hobby, welcome to the world as it is constantly changing and evolving (or devolving)
It looks like this tread lost it's air brakes a long time a go, better get ready to jump before it comes to the bottom of the grade..............lol
I won't mention the competition (don't want this thread locked) but there is even an online mag for free that is very good.
That is true, almost all of the value in being a part of the NMRA and getting model railroader has been replaced by the internet. This is a nice forum and all, but there a bunch out there just as good that don't require a subscription.
rrebell I just thought, show me documentation that the hobby is declining!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I just thought, show me documentation that the hobby is declining!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Wouldn't work. Nobody believes in the data-----
I know of at least 10 craftsman kit manufactures that did not exist 10 years ago and another 5 that are new but the bulk of their offerings are not and if you go back 30 years such names as MTH and Scenic Express did not exist plus hundreds of others. What you ask, to document is impossible because a lot of companies don't even advertise let alone share data. Also a majority of people in the hobby are lone wolves. You can't judge from MR sales or who advertises there, of the people I know only I subscribe to MR and that may be ending soon unless they offer a deal like last time that hooked me in for 3 years (first time I subscribed and my currant incarnation as a model railroader is over 20 years), just dropped my Gazette subscription. So if you can think of a way to document I would be happy to do so.
andrechapelonWhat's that old line about "money talks and BS walks"? It's easy to say one is for kits since it doesn't cost anything, it's a whole other matter to lay out the cash for them. It doesn't matter what people say, it's what they actually do. .
What's that old line about "money talks and BS walks"? It's easy to say one is for kits since it doesn't cost anything, it's a whole other matter to lay out the cash for them. It doesn't matter what people say, it's what they actually do. .
Whether there are or are not more modern era kits available is of little consequence to those of us stuck in the steam or steam/diesel transition era since we wouldn't buy modern era items anyway, kits or RTR.
Your assertion is dead wrong on Henry Ford too. Athearn survived for how many decades on the Model T formula? They didn't need to innovate their process, they needed to produce different kits and make the changes to keep prices down. Anecdotally, when I'm at the club, the people running transition era are usually 75% shake the box kits. 10% RTR and 15% craftsman kits. Engines are usually fancy new Steam. For the Modern guys, it's all RTR, because that's all they can get. But the people that can use BB kits have them.
andrechapelon Love of the hobby is one thing. Love of the hobby in the absence of good business sense is idiocy and only leads to bankruptcy. . Andre
Love of the hobby is one thing. Love of the hobby in the absence of good business sense is idiocy and only leads to bankruptcy.
. Andre
Paul, on just what "observations" do you base your conclusion? Reviewing the replies made by posters to this thread, those actually responding with a clear preference and not just roundy-round arguments, turns out by my count to be 16 in favor of kits, as opposed to 5 favoring RTR.
What's that old line about "money talks and BS walks"? It's easy to say one is for kits since it doesn't cost anything, it's a whole other matter to lay out the cash for them. It doesn't matter what people say, it's what they actually do. Yet, amazingly, kits are available, just not the mass produced screw-driver assembly kits anymore. Somebody's buying kits, just not in massive Athearn BB numbers. and more are being produced every year. La Belle Woodworking has been in business since 1947. Somebody's got to be buying their kits else they'd have gone out of business years ago.
You can still get Silver Streak kits from Ye Olde Huff N Puff. They ain't cheap (costing about as much as a plastic RTR car), but they're still available. So are a number of the Suydam kits now available from Alpine. However, they represent an earlier era and don't quite fit in with anyone modeling later than the early post-steam era.
Whether there are or are not more modern era kits available is of little consequence to those of us stuck in the steam or steam/diesel transition era since we wouldn't buy modern era items anyway, kits or RTR. I personally don't care that you can't get an SD70ACe kit because I wouldn't buy an SD70ACe under any circumstances. Whether or not it's produced as a kit, RTR or both ways is up to those who will actually pony up the cash for one and the manufacturer's determination of what produces the best return.
An additional point worthy of comment; in years long past, most of the hobby's companies were owned by actual hobbyists. Many loved the hobby so much that they would tend to sacrifice profits to keep it affordable and expanding.
Yeah, and they're out of business now. How does that help the hobby? Varney, Mantua, Penn-Line, John English, J-C Models, Tru-Scale, to name a few. The ones that were successful and survived changed with the hobby instead of trying (like Henry Ford with the Model T) to sell the same thing year after year after year. It does a fat lot of good for the hobby (not to mention your business) if you're a manufacturer who thinks you can sell at a unit loss and make it up on volume. Love of the hobby is one thing. Love of the hobby in the absence of good business sense is idiocy and only leads to bankruptcy.
CNJ831Finally, those fully aware of the hobby's history understand that Irv Athearn, truly the hobby's 800 lbs gorilla, was the controlling influence in the hobby pricing for decades, keeping them very reasonable for the hobbyist. Long before he gave up the reins of his company, I had pointed out to others that I felt once he was gone hobby pricing would go out of control. Try graphing locomotive prices from the 1970's to today and see the dramatic upsurge that takes place just a few years after Irv passed from the scene...and it's still accelerating. CNJ831
Finally, those fully aware of the hobby's history understand that Irv Athearn, truly the hobby's 800 lbs gorilla, was the controlling influence in the hobby pricing for decades, keeping them very reasonable for the hobbyist. Long before he gave up the reins of his company, I had pointed out to others that I felt once he was gone hobby pricing would go out of control. Try graphing locomotive prices from the 1970's to today and see the dramatic upsurge that takes place just a few years after Irv passed from the scene...and it's still accelerating.
rrebell People keep on saying the hobby is shrinking, this is not the case (as far as numbers goes), now as a percentage, yes it is dramatically but manufactures look at numbers and not percentages. Most of the people I regularly talk to either online or in person would not own MR mag and a great deal only go to hobby shops for bits a pieces. In fact I know a dozen or more manufactures that are expanding their lines or building new companies from the ground up, now these are craftsman kit manufactures but they are a growing part of the hobby and there are a lot of people into that that are only into that just as there are people that are only interested in a plywood central.
People keep on saying the hobby is shrinking, this is not the case (as far as numbers goes), now as a percentage, yes it is dramatically but manufactures look at numbers and not percentages. Most of the people I regularly talk to either online or in person would not own MR mag and a great deal only go to hobby shops for bits a pieces. In fact I know a dozen or more manufactures that are expanding their lines or building new companies from the ground up, now these are craftsman kit manufactures but they are a growing part of the hobby and there are a lot of people into that that are only into that just as there are people that are only interested in a plywood central.
And you have actual citable statistics that backs up your statement? Please, by all means post them!
I've been asking here for the better part of ten years now for someone, anyone, to produce verifiable evidence that the hobby isn't shrinking, because I've found plenty of material that indicates it is. Over the years a lot of personal opinion, all lacking anything to substantiate it, has been voiced here, but in all that time not one single bit of factual evidence has ever surfaced. Kinda odd, don't you think?
I will agree, however, that there is a very significant percentage of advanced hobbyists who today choose not to read MR, or participate in most forums (this I've pointed this out myself many times), who are avid kit builders, but many, if not most, of those folks were formerly scratchbuilders who have switched approaches. They are not some new segment of model railroading that is generating totally new hobbyists in numbers. Nearly all that I encounter are past middle age and thus their numbers are in decline, just as with the hobby overall. The fact that the field of craftsman kit manufacturing has expanded in recent years is largely because the prime company in this field pretty much priced a lot of its former customer base out of the market, leaving an opening for newcomers (but look where most of the new guys' pricing has gone of late!).
IRONROOSTER CNJ831 IRONROOSTER Fascinating how we keep rehashing the same old topics in this thread. My observations are: Most people don't want kits they want RTR. They only buy kits because that's all that's available or they are on a very tight budget. Paul, on just what "observations" do you base your conclusion? Reviewing the replies made by posters to this thread, those actually responding with a clear preference and not just roundy-round arguments, turns out by my count to be 16 in favor of kits, as opposed to 5 favoring RTR. CNJ831 My observations at hobby stores, train shows, and new product announcements. Fewer kits are in evidence and the ratio has been shifting toward RTR. The hobby store nearest to me stopped carrying Athearn kits a few years ago (the others were already gone). Kits are still available, but it is becoming a niche market and dealers stock fewer of them if they have them at all. OTOH, everyone seems to carry RTR. And manufacturers are dropping kits - Athearn is just the latest one - in favor of RTR. Look at On30, it took off with Bachmann's RTR line. The great popularity of hirail where it's all RTR. And N which has been mostly RTR for years. All of this says to me the market wants RTR more than kits. I'm not sure this forum is representative of the marketplace, but I sense that much of the concern is over price - the loss of low cost rolling stock. I admit it's all anecdotal, but no one's releasing sales figures for kits and RTR.
CNJ831 IRONROOSTER Fascinating how we keep rehashing the same old topics in this thread. My observations are: Most people don't want kits they want RTR. They only buy kits because that's all that's available or they are on a very tight budget. Paul, on just what "observations" do you base your conclusion? Reviewing the replies made by posters to this thread, those actually responding with a clear preference and not just roundy-round arguments, turns out by my count to be 16 in favor of kits, as opposed to 5 favoring RTR. CNJ831
IRONROOSTER Fascinating how we keep rehashing the same old topics in this thread. My observations are: Most people don't want kits they want RTR. They only buy kits because that's all that's available or they are on a very tight budget.
Fascinating how we keep rehashing the same old topics in this thread.
My observations are:
Most people don't want kits they want RTR. They only buy kits because that's all that's available or they are on a very tight budget.
My observations at hobby stores, train shows, and new product announcements. Fewer kits are in evidence and the ratio has been shifting toward RTR. The hobby store nearest to me stopped carrying Athearn kits a few years ago (the others were already gone). Kits are still available, but it is becoming a niche market and dealers stock fewer of them if they have them at all. OTOH, everyone seems to carry RTR.
And manufacturers are dropping kits - Athearn is just the latest one - in favor of RTR.
Look at On30, it took off with Bachmann's RTR line.
The great popularity of hirail where it's all RTR. And N which has been mostly RTR for years.
All of this says to me the market wants RTR more than kits.
I'm not sure this forum is representative of the marketplace, but I sense that much of the concern is over price - the loss of low cost rolling stock.
I admit it's all anecdotal, but no one's releasing sales figures for kits and RTR.
Paul, in response to your basis for believing that the desire for RTR far outweighs that for kits today, let me again point to some situations I've posted earlier that would tend to indicate that things aren't necessarily what they might seem to you.
As I've said, Horizon/Athearn apparently curtailed the availability of its own supposedly "available" BB kits 12 to 24 months prior to announcing that kits were no longer selling. How does one judge the salability of a product that is essentially not even being produced? Likewise, the decision to drop the line was essentially Horizon's and from what I was told (pretty much directly); no Athearn market research was presented at the brief critical meeting when the final decision was made.
Now the people at Horizon are certainly no fools when it comes to the hobby industry. They appreciate that the hobby market is steadily shrinking and to maintain a certain level of profit under the circumstances, reducing production runs and increasing prices is the best answer. It was not possible to double the price of the long established kits, but it was reasonable to offer them RTR to justify the increase. The production cost difference between the two would be small, but the profit margin per unit sold significantly larger. Likewise, if kits weren't available to many hobbyists - particularly those newbies with ready cash, a small but very significant faction in the hobby today doing much of the purchasing - they would be left with little other choice.
That a number of other manufacturers followed Horizon/Athearn into RTR while dropping, or curtailing, their kits, is no surprise either. However, not all were successful in doing so. They appreciated that they were likely to garner a better profit per sale and by limiting runs, get it faster than kit sales would ever allow.
I will agree with you that this, or most other "popular" forums, aren't a very good place to gauge what is actually going on in the marketplace, as they are highly bias toward newcomers and younger (under 45) hobbyists, who are a minority. In fact, I know relatively few hobbyists over 55 that are on-line. Those that are participate mainly in the highly specialized, advanced, forums from what I've seen and do reflect a totally different approach to the hobby than is seen here.
You pointed out the great popularity of RTR in Hi-Rail, but I would counter that Hi-Rail hasn't been regarded as part of the adult scale model railroading hobby in over 50 years. In addition, when MR and RMC ousted that pursuit from the our hobby, N gauge was yet to exist. One has to wonder just where it would have fallen in this schism, considering that HO, OO and TT were all considered truly craftsman's gauges at the time, while N was much more RTR oriented.
An additional point worthy of comment; in years long past, most of the hobby's companies were owned by actual hobbyists. Many loved the hobby so much that they would tend to sacrifice profits to keep it affordable and expanding. Today, the majors are for the most part simply businesses run by boards, few members of whom have any direct relationship with the practicing the hobby any longer. Some of the smaller companies are still old-school, but in the changing marketplace they are often seem uncomfortably close of the survival/non-survival line.