Trains.com

Whose Ready for $3.00 a Gallon Gas

11329 views
262 replies
1 rating 2 rating 3 rating 4 rating 5 rating
  • Member since
    January 2001
  • From: Atlanta
  • 11,971 posts
Posted by oltmannd on Friday, September 2, 2005 11:24 AM
We're down 10% in refining, but the 1st of the 9 down refineries got power back yesterday, with a good chunk of the others coming on line next week. The pipelines from the Gulf to the NE are running again and there is still quite a bit of product waiting at the pipeline origin and in the terminals at destination.

So, all we have to do is NOT panic and cut back a bit.

We don't have to conserve too much, just 5 or 10% out of everyone should do it - and that's fairly easy to do:

1. drive a bit slower and easier
2. combine trips
3. if you have a choice of vehicles, use the higher mpg one more
4. carpool. not just to work, but the kids to soccer, etc.
5. make your HS kids take the bus instead of driving
6. use transit - even for part of your trip if you can
7. Walk and bike more, if you can.

At $3/gal, I think people may actually find ways to cut back more than 10%.

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

  • Member since
    April 2004
  • From: SC
  • 318 posts
Posted by lonewoof on Friday, September 2, 2005 12:08 PM
"Besides, for a car traveling 20,000 mi/yr with fuel at $5, going from 25 to 75 mpg will save ~$1700/yr but going from 75 to 250 will only save ~$700/yr more."

Ye gods! If we're going to throw around nonsense figures like this -- no wonder we're in such bad shape. I think somebody's calculator is is need of a re-calibration...



Remember: In South Carolina, North is southeast of Due West... HIOAg /Bill

  • Member since
    April 2003
  • 305,205 posts
Posted by Anonymous on Friday, September 2, 2005 12:25 PM
It's almost $4.00 (some are $3.75 in some places)[:O][:(!]
  • Member since
    February 2002
  • From: Muncie, Indiana...Orig. from Pennsylvania
  • 13,456 posts
Posted by Modelcar on Friday, September 2, 2005 9:11 PM
...Just a few days ago the station..{Speedway}, that first raised to beyond 3 dollars in this area now within the past hour has gas advertised at 2.99....! Today, at Meijer's the price was 3.18.....{so I bought some...}, and within an hour later it went to 3.26....Now with those two situations it's a bit difficult to believe that all situations are being driven by supply and demand.....

Quentin

  • Member since
    May 2005
  • From: S.E. South Dakota
  • 13,569 posts
Posted by Murphy Siding on Friday, September 2, 2005 9:16 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by Modelcar

...Just a few days ago the station..{Speedway}, that first raised to beyond 3 dollars in this area now within the past hour has gas advertised at 2.99....! Today, at Meijer's the price was 3.18.....{so I bought some...}, and within an hour later it went to 3.26....Now with those two situations it's a bit difficult to believe that all situations are being driven by supply and demand.....



Supply,demand and media fed hysteria I'm afraid.[:(!]

Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.

  • Member since
    February 2002
  • From: Muncie, Indiana...Orig. from Pennsylvania
  • 13,456 posts
Posted by Modelcar on Friday, September 2, 2005 9:35 PM
.....And a touch of Gouging....

Quentin

  • Member since
    February 2002
  • From: Muncie, Indiana...Orig. from Pennsylvania
  • 13,456 posts
Posted by Modelcar on Friday, September 2, 2005 9:36 PM
....And just one more item....From Tues. to Wed....we had a price increase in our town here of 70 cents a gal....!!

Quentin

  • Member since
    August 2003
  • From: Anywhere there are trains
  • 578 posts
Posted by Train Guy 3 on Tuesday, September 6, 2005 9:44 PM
There is one simple way to sum up gas prices..... WE'RE GETTING SCREWED!

TG3 LOOK ! LISTEN ! LIVE ! Remember the 3.

  • Member since
    January 2001
  • From: Atlanta
  • 11,971 posts
Posted by oltmannd on Wednesday, September 7, 2005 10:34 AM
QUOTE: Originally posted by uzurpator

Oltmannd:

-

Typical gearset is about 97-95% efficent. Bearings are about 99%. Clutch - depending on the age is about 95-85% efficient. A shaft is about 98%-95% (the longer the less efficent - altho the diameter also counts the bigger diameter - less twisting thus higher efficency)

typical drivetrain is: cylinders -> shaft (0,98) -> clutch (0,95) -> shaft(0.98) -> gearbox (0.93~0,95) -> shaft(0.98) -> differential(0.95) -> clutch(cardan)(0,97) -> shaft(0,98) -> clutch(cardan)(0.97) -> shaft(0,98) -> wheel = total efficency: 0,77. That is exocluding suspension (it eats some power) and bearings and assumes mint, well lubricated conditions. 0,7 for a new car and 0,6-0,65 for old is about right.



I'll buy the gearset and bearing eff., but you are way out on a friction clutch and shaft. Except for starting from a dead stop, there are very nearly ZERO losses in a friction clutch. The only losses from a shart are the CV joints or universal joints that are in the 98-99% range. Suspension systems eat very little power - nearly ZERO on a smooth road.

If the clutch, shaft and suspension were eating as much HP as you suggest, you wouldn't be able to grab the universal jt. or shock absorber with your bare hand - which you can.

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

  • Member since
    January 2001
  • From: Atlanta
  • 11,971 posts
Posted by oltmannd on Wednesday, September 7, 2005 11:07 AM
QUOTE: Originally posted by uzurpator

Oltmannd:

QUOTE: - AC in a 250 mpg car would drop your milage by 75 mpg, not 20 or 30. Just turning the headlights on would drop gas mileage by 25 mpg. Do the math!


Typical wattage of headlights is about 50-70 watts. That is 100-140 watts. A gallon of fuel will light them for 100-140 hours. At 30 mph average you will do 3000 miles. So the lights are 3000-4200 mpg.

In 3000 miles our 250mpg car will burn 12 gallons. 13 with lights.

3000/13 = 230 mpg

In 4200 miles our 250mpg car will burn 16,8 gallons

4200/17,8 = 235 mpg



Try some real math (and don't forget you're making electricity with a Otto cycle heat engine!):

First of all, headlights are only 60-70W

60Wx 3.413 Btu/hr/W x 1gal/15000Btu x 1/.20 engine eff. x 1/.95 alt eff. = .07 gallons/hr

250 mpg at 60 mph is .24 gallons/hr

So, with headlights on at 60 mph, your 250 mpg goes down to 194 mpg!

(For those 400 W headlights, it'd drop to 83 mpg)

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

  • Member since
    January 2001
  • From: Atlanta
  • 11,971 posts
Posted by oltmannd on Wednesday, September 7, 2005 11:12 AM
QUOTE: Originally posted by uzurpator

-Formula 1 cars do not meet Fed requirements for safety. They are "safer" than they were 30 years ago, but they are certainly not what anyone would call "safe". How you can even say they are the "safest" is beyond me!


Think about it -on each race several of those cars crash at 100+ mph - and yet not many casualities are there...



Way more casualties and injuries than on the highway - and they are wearing full harnesses and helmet and not running with 3 ton SUVs and UPS delivery trucks!

Most formula 1 crashes are at less than 100 mph. They may run speeds up way past 100 mph, but rarely do they hit anything hard directly at those speeds. When they do, they are toast. Just look at what happens to those larger (and safer) Indy cars at Indy.

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

  • Member since
    January 2001
  • From: Atlanta
  • 11,971 posts
Posted by oltmannd on Wednesday, September 7, 2005 11:20 AM
Originally posted by uzurpator

Say that when fuel will be at 20$ @ gallon



Fuel will NEVER be $20/gallon in our lifetime (adjusted for inflation). You could reform coal gas into gasoline for much less, but we don't even need to do that. Technology exists to make perfectly useful transportation fuel from coal for $2.50/gallon. It's just waiting for oil to reach a sustainable high price before someone invests in a long-lived plant to convert coal.

I'll bet within 2 years the price of crude is below $35 and gas is selling for $1.50 to $2.00/gallon. The current high price will lead to a mini-glut that not even OPEC will be able to stanch. It has happened both other times crude spiked. It'll happen now, too.

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

  • Member since
    April 2003
  • 305,205 posts
Posted by Anonymous on Wednesday, September 7, 2005 3:51 PM
oltmannd

1. Drivetrain efficency:

Please - get a data for a dyno for a truck. 400 hp engine usually is about 250-270 hp on the road.

Friction clutch - its efficency is in the area i showed - I could show you data for it (from my engineering books), but I have it in polish, so obviously it has very little use for you. Actually - for friction clutch efficency drops as torque goes up.

Shaft - shafts are tricky - their efficency depends on their length (the longer, the lossier) and diameter (the bigger diameter, the more efficent). In practice you aim for 97-99% efficiency when designing it.

QUOTE: If the clutch, shaft and suspension were eating as much HP as you suggest, you wouldn't be able to grab the universal jt. or shock absorber with your bare hand - which you can.


Huh? By grab i understand "deform" (ie - pretend to see how they work). You see - there is a difference between playing with something, and designing something for 100 or more hp and one God knows how much torque.

2. Headlights.

QUOTE: 60Wx 3.413 Btu/hr/W x 1gal/15000Btu x 1/.20 engine eff. x 1/.95 alt eff. = .07 gallons/hr


The only problem I see here is the fact that a gallon of diesel is about 130000 to 140000 btu. But apart from that...

A gallon of diesel = 151 MJ
400 watts = 1,45 MJ/hr

151*0,35 = 52,85 MJ

52,85/1,45 = 117 hr/gal = 0,0085 gal/hr

QUOTE: Way more casualties and injuries than on the highway - and they are wearing full harnesses and helmet and not running with 3 ton SUVs and UPS delivery trucks!

Most formula 1 crashes are at less than 100 mph. They may run speeds up way past 100 mph, but rarely do they hit anything hard directly at those speeds. When they do, they are toast. Just look at what happens to those larger (and safer) Indy cars at Indy.


They do 100mph average speeds, oftem more. So obviously most crashes are at 100+ mph

QUOTE: Fuel will NEVER be $20/gallon in our lifetime (adjusted for inflation). You could reform coal gas into gasoline for much less, but we don't even need to do that. Technology exists to make perfectly useful transportation fuel from coal for $2.50/gallon. It's just waiting for oil to reach a sustainable high price before someone invests in a long-lived plant to convert coal.

I'll bet within 2 years the price of crude is below $35 and gas is selling for $1.50 to $2.00/gallon. The current high price will lead to a mini-glut that not even OPEC will be able to stanch. It has happened both other times crude spiked. It'll happen now, too.


You really should make yourself familiar with the concept of EROEI.
  • Member since
    December 2001
  • From: Aurora, IL
  • 4,515 posts
Posted by eolafan on Wednesday, September 7, 2005 4:38 PM
Amazing, yesterday morning I drove up into the Milwaukee area and prices here in Chicago metro were about an average of $3.19 per gallon and about the same when I arrived in Milwaukee metro at about 8:30 a.m.. Well, after work I filled up in Hartford, WI at about 6:30 p.m. and the price had fallen to $3.07 per gallon. Amazing.
Eolafan (a.k.a. Jim)
  • Member since
    February 2002
  • From: Muncie, Indiana...Orig. from Pennsylvania
  • 13,456 posts
Posted by Modelcar on Wednesday, September 7, 2005 7:42 PM
........Still hanging in there at 2.99 here in Muncie. Fully expect for one to break away from the "norm" and reduce it but haven't seen any yet....

Quentin

  • Member since
    August 2003
  • From: Anywhere there are trains
  • 578 posts
Posted by Train Guy 3 on Wednesday, September 7, 2005 8:46 PM
Hey prices came back down to 2.99 here in southern VA.... I'm still paying tooo much.

TG3 LOOK ! LISTEN ! LIVE ! Remember the 3.

  • Member since
    April 2003
  • 305,205 posts
Posted by Anonymous on Wednesday, September 7, 2005 9:54 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by uzurpator

oltmannd



QUOTE: Fuel will NEVER be $20/gallon in our lifetime (adjusted for inflation). You could reform coal gas into gasoline for much less, but we don't even need to do that. Technology exists to make perfectly useful transportation fuel from coal for $2.50/gallon. It's just waiting for oil to reach a sustainable high price before someone invests in a long-lived plant to convert coal.

I'll bet within 2 years the price of crude is below $35 and gas is selling for $1.50 to $2.00/gallon. The current high price will lead to a mini-glut that not even OPEC will be able to stanch. It has happened both other times crude spiked. It'll happen now, too.


You really should make yourself familiar with the concept of EROEI.
You should really make yourself familiar with the boom and bust cycle, its bound to bust some time, it’s a bubble. Even many economists have predicted this.
  • Member since
    January 2001
  • From: Atlanta
  • 11,971 posts
Posted by oltmannd on Thursday, September 8, 2005 7:09 AM
uz-

Headlights:

A gallon of diesel is 19,350 Btu/gal (HHV at 60 deg Farenheight), gasoline about 25% less.

You have to make ELECTRICITY from the fuel to run a headlight. You normally do that in a car by combusting the fuel in an Otto cycle engine - which are typically 15-20% effiecient - and driving a generator or alternator - that is typically 95% efficient. So, your yield is 15,000 x .2 x .95 = 2850 Btu/gal

As far as EROEI - I think that's where you're having your problem. The difference comes out as heat and has to be dissapated. By "grab", I meant "be able to touch without getting burnt". I can put my hand on the clutch housing of my car after driving 100 miles on the freeway with no problem. If it were only 70% effiecient, it would be disappating several HP of heat.

That truck that puts only 70% of it's engine BRAKE HP to the road:

Brake HP is the engine rating - usually without engine auxilaries like alternator, water pump, fuel pump, etc.

Most of the losses from the engine shaft to the road are from TIRES! They have a large contact patch with the road and are constantly deforming. It's why steel on steel is more fuel efficient.

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

  • Member since
    April 2003
  • 305,205 posts
Posted by Anonymous on Thursday, September 8, 2005 8:36 AM
Diesel fuel energy content:

http://www.hawaii.gov/dbedt/ert/fueltax-act143.html

QUOTE: The energy content of a gallon of gasoline ranges from about 109,000 to 125,000 Btu. The average is about 114,000 Btu. The energy content of diesel fuel is between about 128,000 and 130,000 Btu per gallon (lower heating value).


http://www.pure-energy.com/products/e-diesel.html

QUOTE: Energy Content: E-Diesel - 126,000 to 128,000 Btu/gal vs diesel ~ 135,000 Btu/gal


http://www.ext.nodak.edu/extpubs/ageng/machine/ae1240w.htm

QUOTE:
Fuel Heat of Cetan Viscosity
Weight Combustion Number Centistokes

Lbs./gal. BTU/gal.

No. 2 diesel 7.05 140,000 48 3.0
100% Biodiesel (B100)
Methyl or ethyl ester 7.3 130,000 55 5.7
B20 mix (20/80) 7.1 138,000 50 3.3
Raw vegetable oil 7.5 130,000 35 to 45 40 to 50


Efficency -

http://forums.nasioc.com/forums/archive/index.php/t-238365.html

QUOTE: I'm with Sordid, I see anything from 23% to 27% loss, and use an average of 25% loss.


http://trucks.autoblog.com/entry/1234000383053544/

QUOTE: Traditional drivetrains pass something more, like 80-85% of the engine’s flywheel power if they’re properly matched to the vehicle, with approximately half of the loss coming from the transmission, and half from the rest of the system (propshafts, differentials, axle shafts, etc.)


A quick dive in the Google will tell you that typical drivetrain losses are about 15-30% - depending on a car in question.
  • Member since
    January 2001
  • From: Atlanta
  • 11,971 posts
Posted by oltmannd on Thursday, September 8, 2005 11:22 AM
QUOTE: Originally posted by uzurpator

Diesel fuel energy content:

http://www.hawaii.gov/dbedt/ert/fueltax-act143.html

QUOTE: The energy content of a gallon of gasoline ranges from about 109,000 to 125,000 Btu. The average is about 114,000 Btu. The energy content of diesel fuel is between about 128,000 and 130,000 Btu per gallon (lower heating value).


http://www.pure-energy.com/products/e-diesel.html

QUOTE: Energy Content: E-Diesel - 126,000 to 128,000 Btu/gal vs diesel ~ 135,000 Btu/gal


http://www.ext.nodak.edu/extpubs/ageng/machine/ae1240w.htm

QUOTE:
Fuel Heat of Cetan Viscosity
Weight Combustion Number Centistokes

Lbs./gal. BTU/gal.

No. 2 diesel 7.05 140,000 48 3.0
100% Biodiesel (B100)
Methyl or ethyl ester 7.3 130,000 55 5.7
B20 mix (20/80) 7.1 138,000 50 3.3
Raw vegetable oil 7.5 130,000 35 to 45 40 to 50


Efficency -

http://forums.nasioc.com/forums/archive/index.php/t-238365.html

QUOTE: I'm with Sordid, I see anything from 23% to 27% loss, and use an average of 25% loss.


http://trucks.autoblog.com/entry/1234000383053544/

QUOTE: Traditional drivetrains pass something more, like 80-85% of the engine’s flywheel power if they’re properly matched to the vehicle, with approximately half of the loss coming from the transmission, and half from the rest of the system (propshafts, differentials, axle shafts, etc.)


A quick dive in the Google will tell you that typical drivetrain losses are about 15-30% - depending on a car in question.


mea culpa on the HHV - I was using a per pound figure so divide my answer by 7.043

I'm OK with a 15-20% loss from the flywheel back on a car with an automatic tranny. Viscous friction in the transmission and differential are not negligible. Loss from bearings and windage from rotating clutch and shafts is a very small part of the 20%.

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

  • Member since
    April 2003
  • 305,205 posts
Posted by Anonymous on Tuesday, September 13, 2005 7:55 AM
Over here in the UK the equivalent price for a US gallon of petrol (gas) is currently around $5.40 (guessing an exchange rate of $1.50 to a £)!!!

Could convert to sail power, but low bridges and all that tacking about could be a problem!
  • Member since
    February 2002
  • From: Muncie, Indiana...Orig. from Pennsylvania
  • 13,456 posts
Posted by Modelcar on Tuesday, September 13, 2005 8:34 AM
Of course we must accept a certain amount of "losses" as we drive down the road....The cost of getting from point A to point B....

Quentin

  • Member since
    August 2003
  • From: weatherford,Tx
  • 367 posts
Posted by zapp on Tuesday, September 13, 2005 10:04 AM
I will apoligize to my Republican forum readers, but as was statedd deeper in the thread. We will not see a really noticable drop in any prices till there is a change in the Administration.

We will, however, begin to see everything from produce to paper increase in price as the high fuel prices are passed down to the general public.

It is my opinion that the current Administration would love to get the public so upset that we would agree to REALLY begin exploring the oil deposits in Alaska. A type of strong arm tactic,that may yet work if the prices remain high.

Most of our oil does not come from the middle east, but comes from South America (I believe it's about 62%,but I could be wrong). The rest is split up between Africa,Middle Eastern nations,etc...
Now that being said, most of their wood and defense products comes from American companies. It's my thinking that if these countries want to charge say $60-70 a barrel,that next helicopter,tank,or piece of plywood is going to really cost you. You'll be living in mud huts,HA! Oh,wait,you already are. (I just returned from Iraq!) Well ***...
  • Member since
    April 2003
  • 305,205 posts
Posted by Anonymous on Tuesday, September 13, 2005 11:36 AM
If gas prices continue to rise, railroads, including Amtrak, commuter lines, light rail, monorails, etc., will become more competitive. Who Knows? Remember when gas prices were rising in the eighties and CSX tested C&O 614T to see if coal was cheaper...
  • Member since
    September 2003
  • From: Mp 126 on the St. Louis District of NS's IL. Div.
  • 1,611 posts
Posted by icmr on Tuesday, September 13, 2005 12:32 PM
I'm ready for the gas because we have to have it so why complain about. And why blaim the President all of the time I mean he really can't do anything without CONGRESS.



ICMR MY$2.75
Illinois Central Railroad. Operation Lifesaver. Look, Listen, Live. Proud owner and user of Digitrax DCC. Visit my forum at http://icmr.proboards100.com For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life. Let every thing that hath breath praise the Lord. Praise ye the Lord. Dream. Plan. Build.Smile, Wink & GrinSmile, Wink & Grin
  • Member since
    January 2002
  • From: Nova Scotia
  • 825 posts
Posted by BentnoseWillie on Tuesday, September 13, 2005 12:59 PM
QUOTE: And why blaim the President all of the time I mean he really can't do anything without CONGRESS.

Uh - aren't he and the majorities of both houses all Republicans...?
B-Dubya -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Inside every GE is an Alco trying to get out...apparently, through the exhaust stack!
  • Member since
    August 2003
  • From: weatherford,Tx
  • 367 posts
Posted by zapp on Tuesday, September 13, 2005 1:49 PM
I always was told the President held the most powerful office in the world. That might have changed...
  • Member since
    July 2003
  • From: Southwestern Florida
  • 501 posts
Posted by Tharmeni on Tuesday, September 13, 2005 2:17 PM
Put the calculators away. When I ordered my hybrid, I wasn't looking to "save money on gasoline" because I believe the price will keep going up (with some downward fits that last a few months). What I wanted to do with my beloved hybrid is buy LESS gasoline than I do now so that someway, someday, the oil companies won't run our lives like they do now. As soon as Florida's first ethanol plant (under construction) is up and running, I'll be blending it in my hybrid to even LESS gasoline.

  • Member since
    August 2003
  • From: weatherford,Tx
  • 367 posts
Posted by zapp on Wednesday, September 14, 2005 8:37 AM
Next year I'm gonna buy a new Dodge with the Cummins in it, then convert it to burn spent vegetable oil. Most fast food restuarants will give this stuff away!
QUOTE: Originally posted by Tharmeni

Put the calculators away. When I ordered my hybrid, I wasn't looking to "save money on gasoline" because I believe the price will keep going up (with some downward fits that last a few months). What I wanted to do with my beloved hybrid is buy LESS gasoline than I do now so that someway, someday, the oil companies won't run our lives like they do now. As soon as Florida's first ethanol plant (under construction) is up and running, I'll be blending it in my hybrid to even LESS gasoline.


  • Member since
    February 2002
  • From: Muncie, Indiana...Orig. from Pennsylvania
  • 13,456 posts
Posted by Modelcar on Wednesday, September 14, 2005 9:01 AM
...New price drop: 2.84 now in Muncie.

Quentin

Join our Community!

Our community is FREE to join. To participate you must either login or register for an account.

Search the Community

Newsletter Sign-Up

By signing up you may also receive occasional reader surveys and special offers from Trains magazine.Please view our privacy policy