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Posted by JayBee on Saturday, March 5, 2022 10:03 PM

Euclid
Here is a good video with lots of detail explaining Russia’s rationale for tactical nukes.  Generally they can be used for a wide array of practical purposes whereas the full size nukes cannot.  They have developed them for a very flexible use with lots of specialized options.  
 
RUSSIA HAS A MASSIVE STOCKPILE OF ‘TACTICAL’ NUCLEAR WEAPONS || 2022
 
 

The US has not abandoned Tactical Nukes. The reason why Germany is buying the F-35 Fighter Bomber is for potential Tactical Nuke delivery.

US B61 Taactical Nuclear Bomb

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Saturday, March 5, 2022 10:51 PM

CMStPnP

 

 
Euclid
Are you factoring in the possiblity of such a conventional war going nuclear?

 

Depends on the part of the Nuclear War.   After the last missile has detonated 62% of the Russian population of 141 million is dead which is significantly more than the United States.    Don't have projections for deaths due to fallout / nuclear winter.   However temps for Nuclear Winter are projected to be in the range of -104 F for the latitude Chicago is at and will remain so for the better part of a year.    Our weather system in the Northern Hemisphere does not really mix a lot with the Southern Hemisphere so the Southern Hemisphere will have some after effects but will be considered a lot better off than the Northern Hemisphere as long as no nukes are detonated in Australia or the Southern Hemisphere.

All life ending on Earth is a myth though.   High probability the nuclear war is survivable in the Southern Hemisphere at least.   Also, who knows if the projections for the North are correct or accurate to that draconian level.

 

Your predicted numbers are reminiscent of Alfred Kahn (Dr. Strangelove) and just as ridiculous. Nuclear war is unthinkable. Period!

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Posted by greyhounds on Saturday, March 5, 2022 11:40 PM
charlie hebdo
UIC gauge is 1435mm. Ukraine and Russia are 1520, a whopping difference of 85 mm or 3.346 inches.
 
Well, that’s enough, kinda, sorta. It’s impossible to operate the same equipment on the two gauges. Unless the trucks are changed, or something like that. And it’s also impossible to operate an efficient three rail dual gauge system, as is done in Brazil, because 3.346 inches doesn’t provide enough space between the rails to do that.
 
user="CSSHEGEWISCH”] Everybody knows that Russia chose 5' gauge as a defensive measure, but it also stymied offensive operations at the beginning of the First World War.
 
I’ve heard an alternative explanation. When a Russian civil engineer was sent to study the railways being built in Europe, he measured the distance between the outside of the rails instead of the distance between the inside of the rails. They wound up with a five foot gauge.
 
3.346 inches didn’t provide much of a defense. When the Germans invaded in WWII, they could move one rail inward by that much as fast as their army could advance. When things started going the other way the Russians could likewise move one rail outward as fast as their army could advance.
 
There is no further need to worry about WWIII starting. WWIII has started.
"By many measures, the U.S. freight rail system is the safest, most efficient and cost effective in the world." - Federal Railroad Administration, October, 2009. I'm just your average, everyday, uncivilized howling "anti-government" critic of mass government expenditures for "High Speed Rail" in the US. And I'm gosh darn proud of that.
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Posted by Backshop on Sunday, March 6, 2022 7:21 AM

There's really no such thing as "small" nukes.  Once you use one, you're open for retaliation in-kind. If Putin has to use nukes on Ukraine, he's already lost.

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Posted by Euclid on Sunday, March 6, 2022 8:12 AM
Russia not only has far more tactical nukes than we do, but they also have a whole new tactical plan for how to use them.  Instead of the total standoff principle of Mutually Assured Destruction of the big nukes that cannot be actually used for a sane outcome; Russia sees the mini-nukes as being actually used for practical advantages in battlefield combat.  There is always a race for "bigger is better," but there is wisdom in downsizing in many cases.  
 
The big nukes are intended to scare away their use.  As such, it seems that the social reaction to their presence is mostly denial.  With that comes the comfort of a belief that they never can be used.  And it also follows that if there were no nukes, there would be no reason for proliferation.  But once there was one, there became the need for proliferation, so that everybody had at least one to deter any one of the others.  But when it comes to deterrence, there is no way to know when enough is enough.  So from that comes the idea that everyone having them is the way to assure that none are ever used.  So the world is suspended in the standoff known as Mutually Assured Destruction. 
 
The Russians have sought to break out of that paradigm by developing the mini-nukes that have a practical purpose rather than just being an ornament of doomsday annihilation, as is the case with the big nukes. 
 
When I describe Russia’s practical intent as being advanced thinking, I am not welcoming it.  If anything, it opens up the prospect of more spontaneous, quicker, and more frequent wars with deadlier outcomes.  Indeed, it is this new tactical nuke philosophy that is being expressed by Putin in his many references threatening the use of nukes against anyone interfering with his Ukraine objective.   He makes these threats to the smallest of provocations such as placings sanctions on him or speaking of him with harsh language. 
 
This denial that that comes from the protection of standoff created by the big nukes allows society to set aside the threat of conventional war going nuclear. This incentivizes conventional war by seeming to limit its consequences of thoroughly escalating.  This comforts the superior side in a conventional war because they are most likely to win as long as it does not go nuclear.  I see this in the shortsighted demands for a no-fly zone as though it were an easy expedient to limit the immediate effects of a small war.
 
It is shortsighted because with a conventional war, yes there will be a winner, but with a nuclear war, everyone loses. 
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Posted by Backshop on Sunday, March 6, 2022 9:35 AM

We had tactical "backpack" nukes decaded ago.  What you don't seem to realize is that once you explode one nuke, all bets are off.  They aren't going to be able to excuse it as "it was just a little one". 

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Posted by Flintlock76 on Sunday, March 6, 2022 10:26 AM

Backshop

We had tactical "backpack" nukes decaded ago.  What you don't seem to realize is that once you explode one nuke, all bets are off.  They aren't going to be able to excuse it as "it was just a little one". 

 

Just like chemical weapons.  It was the fact that everyone had them during WW2 that played a part in their never being used.  No-one wanted to be the first to get the ball rolling with those particular weapons and risk a "tit-for-tat" result.

That and the facts that most senior officers on both sides had personal experience with chemical weapons in WW1 and had no desire to repeat it and also chemical weapons weren't really practical in a war of movement, which WW2 mostly was. 

The only time I know of that chemical weapons were used after WW1 was against those who had no means to retaliate in kind.  Italy used them against the Ethiopians and the Japanese against the Chinese in the 1930s. 

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Posted by Euclid on Sunday, March 6, 2022 10:28 AM

Backshop

There's really no such thing as "small" nukes.  Once you use one, you're open for retaliation in-kind. If Putin has to use nukes on Ukraine, he's already lost.

 

If Putin leveled Ukraine and killed everyone in the country, who would retaliate?  The damage has been done, so what good would it do to retaliate?  Whoever did retaliate would be likely to get hit in return.  Why would they accept that probability just to retailiate against Russia?

The biggest reason for retaliation is the belief that more is coming, and if you strike back hard, you may prevent more from coming.  But a small scale, tactical nuke sends the message that it intends to be confined.  With an attack on Ukraine, it would be over and done before anyone could prepare to deter it.   

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Posted by Flintlock76 on Sunday, March 6, 2022 10:40 AM

Euclid
If Putin leveled Ukraine and killed everyone in the country, who would retaliate?  The damage has been done, so what good would it do to retaliate?

We can go 'round and 'round with this but if Putin turns Ukraine into a nuclear wasteland (even tactical nukes can have that effect) what good would the territory do him then?  The end result would be turning Russia into a permanent pariah nation, at least as long as he and his government were in power. 

Obviously I can't say this with any certainty, but I'd guess if he tried to use any kind of nuclear weapon he'd be removed from office by saner heads.  Just because he's surrounded by "yes-men" doesn't mean those "yes-men" are madmen.

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Sunday, March 6, 2022 11:28 AM

greyhounds
There is no further need to worry about WWIII starting. WWIII has started.

No No No. It isn't and you and the rest of us better hope not.

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Posted by Backshop on Sunday, March 6, 2022 12:10 PM

Euclid

If Putin leveled Ukraine and killed everyone in the country, who would retaliate?  The damage has been done, so what good would it do to retaliate? 

You need to look at a map of Europe.  Ukraine is not a small country.  It is the size of Arizona and New Mexico combined.  It also has 43 million people with another 70+ million just across the border in Romania, Poland and Slovakia. Radiation knows no borders. Besides, anyone who believes anything that Putin says is a fool.  Three weeks ago, he said he wasn't going to invade Ukraine.  Who's going to believe the "I'm only using a couple of small nukes" promise?  If he needs to use nukes to conquer Ukraine, that just shows how impotent he is.  Not only does he look bad in our eyes, but the Chinese wouldn't like it either.

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Posted by NorthBrit on Sunday, March 6, 2022 12:47 PM

Personally I do not worry about any nuke attack.   Russia could have done that a long time ago.

Look at the map of Ukraine.  What do Russia want by invading the country?

They want a home for their Black Sea fleet.

They want Odessa and Berdyansk for their surface fleet  and   the reopening and enlarging of Bakaklava  submarine base.

Russia also wants the  “Lenin Kuznitsa” plant in Kyiv.

 

One thing I have learned.   Do not trust  reporters.

One famous reporter here said during the Falklands War,  "I counted them all out and counted them all back.  They all returned safely."

He couldn't count because we lost an aircraft.

I could mention other reports of misinformation.

 

David

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Posted by Flintlock76 on Sunday, March 6, 2022 2:23 PM

NorthBrit
One thing I have learned.   Do not trust  reporters.

As I said earlier, news reports are just the "first draft" of history.

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Posted by BaltACD on Sunday, March 6, 2022 2:28 PM

NorthBrit
...

One thing I have learned.   Do not trust  reporters.

...

The other thing I have learned -

Don't trust the announcements of Russian leaders

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

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Posted by SD70Dude on Sunday, March 6, 2022 3:51 PM

Flintlock76
NorthBrit
One thing I have learned.   Do not trust  reporters.

As I said earlier, news reports are just the "first draft" of history.

This is the first time I've seen Fox News, CBC and Al Jazeera all reporting the same basic storyline.  Namely that Ukraine was no threat, Putin is the aggressor, and no one can understand what he's thinking.

Greetings from Alberta

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Posted by SD70Dude on Sunday, March 6, 2022 3:56 PM

Flintlock76
Backshop

We had tactical "backpack" nukes decaded ago.  What you don't seem to realize is that once you explode one nuke, all bets are off.  They aren't going to be able to excuse it as "it was just a little one". 

Just like chemical weapons.  It was the fact that everyone had them during WW2 that played a part in their never being used.  No-one wanted to be the first to get the ball rolling with those particular weapons and risk a "tit-for-tat" result.

That and the facts that most senior officers on both sides had personal experience with chemical weapons in WW1 and had no desire to repeat it and also chemical weapons weren't really practical in a war of movement, which WW2 mostly was. 

The only time I know of that chemical weapons were used after WW1 was against those who had no means to retaliate in kind.  Italy used them against the Ethiopians and the Japanese against the Chinese in the 1930s. 

Iraq used large amounts of poison gas against Iranian forces during the 1980s, which the U.S. conveniently ignored while supporting Saddam.  

Churchill wanted to use Anthrax on the Germans but was overruled, in part because of the retaliation concerns.  

The Americans were preparing to use chemical weapons in the planned invasion of the Japanese home islands, but as we all know a different type of weapon of mass destruction ended the war first.

Greetings from Alberta

-an Articulate Malcontent

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Posted by tree68 on Sunday, March 6, 2022 3:56 PM

It occurs to me that there are two types who seek to acquire that which is not theirs.

The first is simply someone who wants what someone else has.  I like your hat, so I take it.  It's easy to oppose someone like that, and odds are if someone sees it happen, they'll try to retrieve it and return it to it's rightful owner.

It's even possible that the culprit will agree.

The second is someone who feels they are entitled to what someone else has.  You got Junior a hat, and his sibling thinks you should have gotten it for them instead.  Tantrums ensue.

Putin appears to fall in the second category.

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Posted by Shadow the Cats owner on Sunday, March 6, 2022 7:48 PM

After seeing some of the footage on YouTube of what the Ukraine citizens are doing to the Russian invaders I'm more scared of them afterwards.  One farmer in the middle of the night literally stole a freaking S400 missile launcher and then was seen dragging the freaking radar with it the next day down the road.  Several other people have been seen stealing T90 tanks. 

 

Hell I'm no military expert but if this is the quality of Russian military where tanks and high end air defensive systems can be stolen by civilians then if the Russians are dumb enough to attack NATO heaven help them.  

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Posted by Flintlock76 on Sunday, March 6, 2022 10:06 PM

SD70Dude
Iraq used large amounts of poison gas against Iranian forces during the 1980s, which the U.S. conveniently ignored while supporting Saddam.   Churchill wanted to use Anthrax on the Germans but was overruled, in part because of the retaliation concerns.   The Americans were preparing to use chemical weapons in the planned invasion of the Japanese home islands, but as we all know a different type of weapon of mass destruction ended the war first.

1)  Right you are, I'd forgotten.  But it fits the pattern, Iran couldn't retaliate in kind. And the Iran-Iraq War had degenerated to a stalemate, no war of movement here.  It didn't do Saddam any good anyway. And of course the US was favorable to Saddam, he hadn't done anything to us.  Remember what Iran did?  I do. 

2)  Right on Churchill.  He was furious over the V2 attacks that the British had no way of stopping or retaliating to in kind so he wanted to hit them back hard with something. A biological attack with anthrax seemed a good way to do it.  The British high command talked him out of it, the RAF didn't have the aircraft needed to deliver the anthrax in the quantities that would have been needed, Allied forces in Western Europe were advancing at a rate that would have put the V2 launch sites out of range within a reasonable amount of time, and at any rate Germany was losing the war as it was, that was only a matter of time.  In addition to that  Allied forces would have had to occupy a poisoned country, not a good idea no matter what country it was.  

3) Chemical weapons were on the table for an invasion of Japan, but as a last resort weapon only since the Japanese did have the ability to retaliate in kind, or for the US to respond if they popped poison gas on us first. Bear in mind chemical weapons also included defoliants to kill Japanese crops.  Starving them obviously wasn't needed in the end.

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Posted by Leo_Ames on Monday, March 7, 2022 4:32 AM

Not to mention such an attack on German forces and civilians would've invited reprisals on Allied prisoners, which I bet was also on their mind. 

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Posted by tree68 on Monday, March 7, 2022 8:21 AM

Gee, I wonder what affect the inability to smell and taste would have on a soldier in the field...

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Posted by Euclid on Monday, March 7, 2022 10:21 AM

Developing news is that Poland will give Ukraine some used fighter jets in a deal where the U.S. replaces those jets with new ones for Poland.  However, this is said to be a delicate move because Poland is not sure how far they can go down this road without Putin considering the plan to be an act of war against Russia.  Coincidentally yesterday, Putin said that the sanctions alone are akin to an act of war against Russia.  

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Posted by Backshop on Monday, March 7, 2022 10:27 AM

Euclid

Developing news is that Poland will give Ukraine some used fighter jets in a deal where the U.S. replaces those jets with new ones for Poland.  However, this is said to be a delicate move because Poland is not sure how far they can go down this road without Putin considering the plan to be an act of war against Russia.  Coincidentally yesterday, Putin said that the sanctions alone are akin to an act of war against Russia.  

 

Putin is blowing smoke.  Every time he escalates, he blames others.  Poland is a full member of NATO.  Russia doesn't dare attack them.

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Posted by Euclid on Monday, March 7, 2022 11:35 AM

Backshop
Putin is blowing smoke.  Every time he escalates, he blames others.  Poland is a full member of NATO.  Russia doesn't dare attack them.

I would not predict what Putin might do.  But say he attacked those planes that were headed for Ukraine while they were still in Poland; what would we do?  What would NATO do? 

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Posted by Backshop on Monday, March 7, 2022 12:18 PM

Euclid

 

 
Backshop
Putin is blowing smoke.  Every time he escalates, he blames others.  Poland is a full member of NATO.  Russia doesn't dare attack them.

 

I would not predict what Putin might do.  But say he attacked those planes that were headed for Ukraine while they were still in Poland; what would we do?  What would NATO do? 

 

Simple.  The Russian air force would cease to exist.

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Posted by Convicted One on Monday, March 7, 2022 12:27 PM

Euclid
I would not predict what Putin might do.  But say he attacked those planes that were headed for Ukraine while they were still in Poland; what would we do?  What would NATO do? 

What would we do if Putin  was supplying war planes  to a suddenly antagonistic or even suspiciously reticent  Mexico?

Or, what DID we do when Khrushchev was supplying missiles to Cuba?

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Posted by Flintlock76 on Monday, March 7, 2022 12:31 PM

Convicted One
What would we do if Putin  was supplying war planes  to a suddenly antagonistic or even suspiciously reticent  Mexico? Or, what DID we do when Khrushchev was supplying missiles to Cuba?

If they were using them to break up drug and organized crime cartels probably nothing.

Russian missiles in Cuba?  In the end we worked a deal. "YOU take the missiles out of Cuba, and WE'LL take the Pershing missiles out of Turkey."  

Everybody was happy.

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Posted by Euclid on Monday, March 7, 2022 1:02 PM

Backshop
Euclid

 

Backshop
Putin is blowing smoke.  Every time he escalates, he blames others.  Poland is a full member of NATO.  Russia doesn't dare attack them.
 

 

I don’t believe that would happen.  Certainly we could do that.  But we have telegraphed that we are very cautious about the causing an escalation.   So that suggests that we would certainly not escalate over just the loss of some aircraft.  We especially would not do that when the escalation would lead toward an all-out war with Russia all the way up to nuclear exchange. 
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Posted by tree68 on Monday, March 7, 2022 1:44 PM

Euclid
So that suggests that we would certainly not escalate over just the loss of some aircraft.

See:  Lusitania.

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Posted by JayBee on Monday, March 7, 2022 1:58 PM

Euclid

I would not predict what Putin might do.  But say he attacked those planes that were headed for Ukraine while they were still in Poland; what would we do?  What would NATO do? 

 
First NATO would be tracking any Russian aircraft well before they crossed the Polish border, the moment it looked like the would cross the border fighter jets would be scrambled to intercept them. They would be warned not to cross the border. If they did in fact cross the border they would be escorted back to their own side or shot down if they refused. If in crossing they displayed intent to attack they would be shot down without warning. 

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