Trains.com

The designated (off-topic) Ukraine war thread Locked

32865 views
802 replies
1 rating 2 rating 3 rating 4 rating 5 rating
  • Member since
    January 2015
  • 2,678 posts
Posted by kgbw49 on Sunday, February 27, 2022 8:42 PM

This will not be over quickly.

Russia is setting up to lay siege to Kyiv and other major cities. With no petroleum products, natural gas or food coming in, there is going to be a lot of Russian-created  starvation and needless death.

Putin is as ruthless as Stalin and he will use his tactics to achieve his dream of restoring the Soviet Union,

  • Member since
    June 2009
  • From: Dallas, TX
  • 6,952 posts
Posted by CMStPnP on Sunday, February 27, 2022 7:28 PM

BTW, Congress actually planned this out along with the Fed.....what it would mean if several major cities were destroyed at once but they did not say the scenario.   They were just looking at how to recover and if we could recover and the side effects of what would happen.    It was an interesting CSPAN hearing and it was open to the public.....about 12 or more years ago.  

Curious how the railroads would react or if they have done planning on massive traffic reroutes.    I think at that point PSR is out the window.

  • Member since
    January 2014
  • 8,221 posts
Posted by Euclid on Sunday, February 27, 2022 6:42 PM

Flintlock76

 

 
Euclid
Now I just found a video from today with Putin saying our sanctions are a criminal act against him, and therefore he is putting his nuclear forces on high alert.

 

My predictions are no better than anyone elses, so take this for what it's worth.

My 2 Cents

Only Vlad the Impaler knows what his end-game is and maybe his inner circle, if even they know.  But if he tries to pop nukes that'll be the end of him, there'll be a coup d'etat. He may be unstable at this point but the rest of the Russian government and military aren't madmen. If he uses nukes, even the tactical variety, the world changes forever and not for the better.  Self-preservation of your life and what you've got is a pretty strong motivator. They'll get rid of him, quick.

 

yes, I agree with all of what you say.  I suspect Putin could already be on thin ice for just threatening a nuclear attack as though you just have to do what it takes to win.  He might order it, and nobody will execute the order.  To some extent that is already happening in Ukraine.  Captured Russian troops are saying they want no part of it. They say they were promised that the mission was just training and now they find out it is to murder an entire country. 

If Putin does launch a nuclear missile on some target, the most heroic and difficult decsion the world has ever known will be a decision by the target entity to not retliate with a nuclear weapon.  

  • Member since
    January 2019
  • From: Henrico, VA
  • 9,728 posts
Posted by Flintlock76 on Sunday, February 27, 2022 6:02 PM

#

  • Member since
    May 2003
  • From: US
  • 25,292 posts
Posted by BaltACD on Sunday, February 27, 2022 5:47 PM

CMStPnP
 
Euclid
Many observers are saying the Putin has lost his grip on reality and become very hateful and paranoid over the last five years. 

I started to see things start to go South after his wife divorced him (2014 coincidently when the Ukraine and Syria stuff both started).   She wanted to speak out but was muzzled and kept away from the microphones. 

Allegedly, Putin cheated on his wife twice, the second time (2014) was the last straw as his mistress was allegedly pregnant with his kid (whom was born in 2015).   He has two daughters by his first wife.

He started murmuring about Nuclear war with NATO about 3-4 years ago saying it was an option if Russia was ever backed into a corner and had no way out.   Nukes would be his choice to take others down with Russia.

That could explain his 'cozy' relationship with 45 - a pair of cheaters.  Wonder if Putin would think about dating his own daughers?

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

  • Member since
    January 2019
  • From: Henrico, VA
  • 9,728 posts
Posted by Flintlock76 on Sunday, February 27, 2022 5:14 PM

Euclid
Now I just found a video from today with Putin saying our sanctions are a criminal act against him, and therefore he is putting his nuclear forces on high alert.

My predictions are no better than anyone elses, so take this for what it's worth.

My 2 Cents

Only Vlad the Impaler knows what his end-game is and maybe his inner circle, if even they know.  But if he tries to pop nukes that'll be the end of him, there'll be a coup d'etat. He may be unstable at this point but the rest of the Russian government and military aren't madmen. If he uses nukes, even the tactical variety, the world changes forever and not for the better.  Self-preservation of your life and what you've got is a pretty strong motivator. They'll get rid of him, quick.

  • Member since
    January 2014
  • 8,221 posts
Posted by Euclid on Sunday, February 27, 2022 4:02 PM
 
I posted this above a couple hours ago:
 
“Cyber-attack is in the process of being elevated (by NATO) from mischief to an act of war.  What about severe sanctions?  Whether they are an act of war; is in the mind of the beholder.  In Putin’s mind, I think he would consider sanctions to be meddling in his Ukraine aggression.”
 
My point was that Putin could regard our sanctions on him as an act of war, and he might retaliate against us accordingly. 
 
Now I just found a video from today with Putin saying our sanctions are a criminal act against him, and therefore he is putting his nuclear forces on high alert.  Obviously he does think our sanctions on him are an attack, and so, he has once again at least implied a threat of a nuclear response.  Here is what he said: 
 
“Dear colleagues: You can see that western countries are not only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country; I mean the illegal sanctions that everyone knows about.  But also the top officials of leading NATO countries are allowing themselves to make aggressive statements with regards to our country.  That’s why I am ordering the Defense Minister and the Chief of General Staff to put deterrence forces on high combat alert.”
 
 
  • Member since
    August 2006
  • 575 posts
Posted by alphas on Sunday, February 27, 2022 2:57 PM

CMStPnP

They just announced they cutoff Russia from SWIFT.....

 

If I'm reading the news right, they cut them off but allowed an exception for energy purchases from Russia.     That would seem to take a large "bite" out of the effectiveness of the SWIFT cutoff.

  • Member since
    June 2009
  • From: Dallas, TX
  • 6,952 posts
Posted by CMStPnP on Sunday, February 27, 2022 2:34 PM

Euclid
Many observers are saying the Putin has lost his grip on reality and become very hateful and paranoid over the last five years.

I started to see things start to go South after his wife divorced him (2014 coincidently when the Ukraine and Syria stuff both started).   She wanted to speak out but was muzzled and kept away from the microphones. 

Allegedly, Putin cheated on his wife twice, the second time (2014) was the last straw as his mistress was allegedly pregnant with his kid (whom was born in 2015).   He has two daughters by his first wife.

He started murmuring about Nuclear war with NATO about 3-4 years ago saying it was an option if Russia was ever backed into a corner and had no way out.   Nukes would be his choice to take others down with Russia.

  • Member since
    May 2003
  • From: US
  • 25,292 posts
Posted by BaltACD on Sunday, February 27, 2022 12:50 PM

Putin thinks he is Stalin for the 21st Century.

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

  • Member since
    January 2014
  • 8,221 posts
Posted by Euclid on Sunday, February 27, 2022 10:50 AM

CMStPnP

 

 
Euclid
THE HIDDEN DANGER OF CYBER-ATTACKS
 
This conflict has raised the discussion of cyber warfare in which the intent is to break things rather than just steal classified material or trade secrets.  Military grade cyber-attacks can take down infrastructure of power grids, communication, energy distribution, commerce, and transportation.  They can be inflicted on large areas, perhaps unlimited in size if enough effort is put into the attack. 
 
Cyber-attacks can accomplish this by actual destruction that will take years to rebuild.  Cyber-attacks can also be executed with no indication of who committed the attack.  In the complex case of war in Europe, there can be many parties with a motivation to launch cyber-attacks on others.  There is no way for a person to prepare enough to be shielded from the hardship of a massive military cyber-attack.  There can be a motive to launch a cyber-attack on a country and make it look like it was launched by a country other than the one that actually launched it.
 
Cyber-attacks are being studied and discussed in NATO lately, and particularly in relation to this currently developing conflict in Ukraine.  As I understand it, NATO has Article 5, which can invoke a demand that all members go to war in order to stop an attack on any one member.  Since the U.S. is part of NATO, the invocation through Article 5 could send the U.S. to war along with the other NATO member counties.  NATO does recognize cyber-attacks as being an act of war.  But the charter is not clearly resolved on this matter, so it is under intense review now.
 
This has brought into focus, the effect of a cyber-attack on any NATO member, and whether it should be considered to be a triggering reason to declare war on the source country of the cyber-attack.  In addition to gravity of that dire prospect, there is the problem of not knowing who actually committed the attack.  What if the perpetrator was not Russia, for instance?  What if the attack was just made to appear to have been committed by Russia?
 
Looking at this in another way, say we were to suffer a massive, crippling cyber-attack on our east coast over say 1/3 of our national land mass.  Say we did not know who attacked us.  Considering this current climate, who do you think we would suspect and blame?  If we could not prove who that was, do you think we would withhold judgement, and not retaliate?  If we thought we had enough evidence, we could attack the suspect with bombs and missiles.  Or we could opt for a counter attack in the form of a surreptitious cyber-attack on the party we suspected to have attacked us.  That method would take the sting out of mistakenly retaliating against the wrong country. 
 
No matter if we were right or wrong about our suspicion that we had been attacked by Russia, if we retaliated against them secretly, would they not suspect us just like we suspected them? 
 
This is the danger I see with cyber-attacks.  It is not just the personal inconvenience they impose on people affected.  Instead, it is their ability to grease the skids for an easy starting of war that quickly escalates to the use of bombs and missiles.   
 
 

 

 

He won't go beyond limited Cyber attacks against the United States he knows how quickly that would spin out of control in his homeland.    PLus he knows once he deals that card it can't be used again.

 

I won’t predict what he will do.  He is now destroying not only Ukraine, but Russia too.  Many observers are saying the Putin has lost his grip on reality and become very hateful and paranoid over the last five years.  He already threatened us with nuclear attack if we meddle in his conquest of Ukraine.  Cyber-attack is in the process of being elevated from mischief to an act of war. 
 
What about severe sanctions?  Whether they are an act of war or not; that is in the mind of the beholder.  In Putin’s mind, I think he would consider sanctions to be meddling in his Ukraine aggression.  So he certainly has a motive to attack us with cyber-attack at the very least.
 
I don’t see why Putin would hesitate to launch a cyber-attack on us because of the reaction in his country, as you say.  

I see cyber-attack and/or nuclear exchange to be quite plausible in this situation. Cyber-attack could lead to nuclear war, or nuclear war could result from some other development in this conflict.  The point is that although it irrational to use nuclear weapons, rationality goes out the window in time of war.  And if Putin has become what many are saying he has, he could be just the person to bring on the unthinkable.   

  • Member since
    February 2022
  • 2 posts
Posted by RonStavich on Sunday, February 27, 2022 9:41 AM

Kiev has a Subway? Is it cut and cover or deep bore? What kind of cars do they use and how much of it is underground?

  • Member since
    June 2009
  • From: Dallas, TX
  • 6,952 posts
Posted by CMStPnP on Sunday, February 27, 2022 8:58 AM

Euclid
THE HIDDEN DANGER OF CYBER-ATTACKS
 
This conflict has raised the discussion of cyber warfare in which the intent is to break things rather than just steal classified material or trade secrets.  Military grade cyber-attacks can take down infrastructure of power grids, communication, energy distribution, commerce, and transportation.  They can be inflicted on large areas, perhaps unlimited in size if enough effort is put into the attack. 
 
Cyber-attacks can accomplish this by actual destruction that will take years to rebuild.  Cyber-attacks can also be executed with no indication of who committed the attack.  In the complex case of war in Europe, there can be many parties with a motivation to launch cyber-attacks on others.  There is no way for a person to prepare enough to be shielded from the hardship of a massive military cyber-attack.  There can be a motive to launch a cyber-attack on a country and make it look like it was launched by a country other than the one that actually launched it.
 
Cyber-attacks are being studied and discussed in NATO lately, and particularly in relation to this currently developing conflict in Ukraine.  As I understand it, NATO has Article 5, which can invoke a demand that all members go to war in order to stop an attack on any one member.  Since the U.S. is part of NATO, the invocation through Article 5 could send the U.S. to war along with the other NATO member counties.  NATO does recognize cyber-attacks as being an act of war.  But the charter is not clearly resolved on this matter, so it is under intense review now.
 
This has brought into focus, the effect of a cyber-attack on any NATO member, and whether it should be considered to be a triggering reason to declare war on the source country of the cyber-attack.  In addition to gravity of that dire prospect, there is the problem of not knowing who actually committed the attack.  What if the perpetrator was not Russia, for instance?  What if the attack was just made to appear to have been committed by Russia?
 
Looking at this in another way, say we were to suffer a massive, crippling cyber-attack on our east coast over say 1/3 of our national land mass.  Say we did not know who attacked us.  Considering this current climate, who do you think we would suspect and blame?  If we could not prove who that was, do you think we would withhold judgement, and not retaliate?  If we thought we had enough evidence, we could attack the suspect with bombs and missiles.  Or we could opt for a counter attack in the form of a surreptitious cyber-attack on the party we suspected to have attacked us.  That method would take the sting out of mistakenly retaliating against the wrong country. 
 
No matter if we were right or wrong about our suspicion that we had been attacked by Russia, if we retaliated against them secretly, would they not suspect us just like we suspected them? 
 
This is the danger I see with cyber-attacks.  It is not just the personal inconvenience they impose on people affected.  Instead, it is their ability to grease the skids for an easy starting of war that quickly escalates to the use of bombs and missiles.   
 
 

He won't go beyond limited Cyber attacks against the United States he knows how quickly that would spin out of control in his homeland.    PLus he knows once he deals that card it can't be used again.

  • Member since
    June 2009
  • From: Dallas, TX
  • 6,952 posts
Posted by CMStPnP on Sunday, February 27, 2022 8:54 AM

Russia states it's Nuclear Forces placed on high alert.......

See I knew it would escalate quickly and I would not put it past him to attempt a limited exchange.    The question is will those around him sit back and watch it happen or remove him from power.

  • Member since
    January 2014
  • 8,221 posts
Posted by Euclid on Sunday, February 27, 2022 8:45 AM
THE HIDDEN DANGER OF CYBER-ATTACKS
 
This conflict has raised the discussion of cyber warfare in which the intent is to break things rather than just steal classified material or trade secrets.  Military grade cyber-attacks can take down infrastructure of power grids, communication, energy distribution, commerce, and transportation.  They can be inflicted on large areas, perhaps unlimited in size if enough effort is put into the attack. 
 
Cyber-attacks can accomplish this by actual destruction that will take years to rebuild.  Cyber-attacks can also be executed with no indication of who committed the attack.  In the complex case of war in Europe, there can be many parties with a motivation to launch cyber-attacks on others.  There is no way for a person to prepare enough to be shielded from the hardship of a massive military cyber-attack.  There can be a motive to launch a cyber-attack on a country and make it look like it was launched by a country other than the one that actually launched it.
 
Cyber-attacks are being studied and discussed in NATO lately, and particularly in relation to this currently developing conflict in Ukraine.  As I understand it, NATO has Article 5, which can invoke a demand that all members go to war in order to stop an attack on any one member.  Since the U.S. is part of NATO, the invocation through Article 5 could send the U.S. to war along with the other NATO member counties.  NATO does recognize cyber-attacks as being an act of war.  But the charter is not clearly resolved on this matter, so it is under intense review now.
 
This has brought into focus, the effect of a cyber-attack on any NATO member, and whether it should be considered to be a triggering reason to declare war on the source country of the cyber-attack.  In addition to gravity of that dire prospect, there is the problem of not knowing who actually committed the attack.  What if the perpetrator was not Russia, for instance?  What if the attack was just made to appear to have been committed by Russia?
 
Looking at this in another way, say we were to suffer a massive, crippling cyber-attack on our east coast over say 1/3 of our national land mass.  Say we did not know who attacked us.  Considering this current climate, who do you think we would suspect and blame?  If we could not prove who that was, do you think we would withhold judgement, and not retaliate?  If we thought we had enough evidence, we could attack the suspect with bombs and missiles.  Or we could opt for a counter attack in the form of a surreptitious cyber-attack on the party we suspected to have attacked us.  That method would take the sting out of mistakenly retaliating against the wrong country. 
 
No matter if we were right or wrong about our suspicion that we had been attacked by Russia, if we retaliated against them secretly, would they not suspect us just like we suspected them? 
 
This is the danger I see with cyber-attacks.  It is not just the personal inconvenience they impose on people affected.  Instead, it is their ability to grease the skids for an easy starting of war that quickly escalates to the use of bombs and missiles.   
 
  • Member since
    December 2017
  • From: I've been everywhere, man
  • 4,269 posts
Posted by SD70Dude on Sunday, February 27, 2022 12:13 AM

kgbw49

Putin will get more and more ruthless as the fight goes on.

Eventually he will go after electrical infrastructure and water supply infrastructure and will even attempt to starve out the capitol if necessary.

Unfortunately we do not have Berlin airlift capacity nor any control of a sector as we did in Berlin.

Remember, Putin believes the fall of the Soviet Union was a tragedy. He surely knows the ruthless brutality unleashed on their own people to keep the empire in line over the decades. He won't hesitate to employ the same playbook - he is doing it already.

The Ukrainians say Russia has already tried targeting a dam that holds back much of Kiev's water supply.  

Ukraine can't win a conventional war against the might of the Russian military.  Everyone seems to agree on that.  But they don't have to.  

What they can do is keep resisting, gradually transition into a resistance movement, and drag Putin down into an Afghan or Vietnam style quagmire.

Greetings from Alberta

-an Articulate Malcontent

  • Member since
    December 2007
  • From: Georgia USA SW of Atlanta
  • 11,919 posts
Posted by blue streak 1 on Saturday, February 26, 2022 11:27 PM

I believe that the US RRs and Canada RRs may have a lot of traffic pushes as some have already posted.  We might see as well some DODX cars traveling to outlying small places with you know what. What is it going to take for the next few weeks with all the vacancies in operating, mechanical, and dispatch.  How will those vacancies be filled without severe actions?

Maybe deafcon 3

  • Member since
    August 2003
  • From: Antioch, IL
  • 4,371 posts
Posted by greyhounds on Saturday, February 26, 2022 10:58 PM

Steven Otte
Since members seem determined to discuss the Ukraine war on this Forum, please do so in this thread only. Other threads will be deleted. And I know it's difficult, but keep politics out of this thread. Any "This is because Biden is weak" or "Trump is a Russian patsy" stuff will be deleted, and repeated offenses will result in penalties. Also be warned that if this thread degenerates into insults or fights, it's gone the second that editing it becomes not worth my time. 

It's a war in Europe!  They tend not to go well.  For all of us, they don't go well.

"By many measures, the U.S. freight rail system is the safest, most efficient and cost effective in the world." - Federal Railroad Administration, October, 2009. I'm just your average, everyday, uncivilized howling "anti-government" critic of mass government expenditures for "High Speed Rail" in the US. And I'm gosh darn proud of that.
  • Member since
    June 2009
  • From: Dallas, TX
  • 6,952 posts
Posted by CMStPnP on Saturday, February 26, 2022 9:06 PM

Flintlock76
  It's probably one of the reasons they're doing so well in blunting the Russian offensive.  

It's becomming clear to me the Russians were not trained that well in Urban warfare.    I cannot believe they are relying on street signs,  oldest trick in the book is to move those around to fool an invader or get them lost.

  • Member since
    June 2009
  • From: Dallas, TX
  • 6,952 posts
Posted by CMStPnP on Saturday, February 26, 2022 8:59 PM

They just announced they cutoff Russia from SWIFT.....

  • Member since
    January 2015
  • 2,678 posts
Posted by kgbw49 on Saturday, February 26, 2022 8:04 PM

Putin will get more and more ruthless as the fight goes on.

Eventually he will go after electrical infrastructure and water supply infrastructure and will even attempt to starve out the capitol if necessary.

Unfortunately we do not have Berlin airlift capacity nor any control of a sector as we did in Berlin.

Remember, Putin believes the fall of the Soviet Union was a tragedy. He surely knows the ruthless brutality unleashed on their own people to keep the empire in line over the decades. He won't hesitate to employ the same playbook - he is doing it already.

  • Member since
    January 2019
  • 1,686 posts
Posted by Erik_Mag on Saturday, February 26, 2022 5:55 PM

One other thing with respect to the Ukrainians is that their experience with the Holomodor is likely to give them a much deeper resolve to the defense.

  • Member since
    January 2019
  • From: Henrico, VA
  • 9,728 posts
Posted by Flintlock76 on Saturday, February 26, 2022 5:22 PM

tree68

 

 
Euclid
I was referring to a military cyber-attack that shuts down a significant portion of power, heat, and communications throughout a sizable portion of our country. 

 

Makes me glad I've got ham radio and backup power (including solar)...

 

It's also the reason the Ukrainians planned for and installed a significant back-up system  involving land-lines (and things they haven't mentioned) in case of cyber-attacks and radio jamming.  It's probably one of the reasons they're doing so well in blunting the Russian offensive.  

  • Member since
    December 2001
  • From: Northern New York
  • 25,020 posts
Posted by tree68 on Saturday, February 26, 2022 12:18 PM

Euclid
I was referring to a military cyber-attack that shuts down a significant portion of power, heat, and communications throughout a sizable portion of our country. 

Makes me glad I've got ham radio and backup power (including solar)...

LarryWhistling
Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) 
Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you
My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date
Come ride the rails with me!
There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...

  • Member since
    January 2014
  • 8,221 posts
Posted by Euclid on Saturday, February 26, 2022 12:10 PM
When I mentioned the dilemma arising from a massive cyber-attack, I did not mean just random hacking against one or a few targets.  I was referring to a military cyber-attack that shuts down a significant portion of power, heat, and communications throughout a sizable portion of our country. 
 
This is a possibility, and if it happens, it may be regarded as an act of war.  It may also happen without any knowledge of who caused it.  Would we retaliate against the most likely culprit?  This is a new era in which massive damage can be inflicted with little if any direct evidence of who did it. 
  • Member since
    August 2003
  • From: Antioch, IL
  • 4,371 posts
Posted by greyhounds on Saturday, February 26, 2022 11:35 AM
Ukraine and Russia are both significant exporters of grain. This awful war will likely disrupt that.  Fields won't get planted, supplies will be embargoed, etc. Since people need to eat, this war will disrupt agricultural trade. That will impact North American railroads. Along with our personal food budgets.
 
Much, much worse are the people who have been killed in this stupidity. Along with those who are going to be killed.
 
When “Live Free or Die” becomes a reality instead of a slogan things are really bad.
"By many measures, the U.S. freight rail system is the safest, most efficient and cost effective in the world." - Federal Railroad Administration, October, 2009. I'm just your average, everyday, uncivilized howling "anti-government" critic of mass government expenditures for "High Speed Rail" in the US. And I'm gosh darn proud of that.
  • Member since
    January 2019
  • 1,686 posts
Posted by Erik_Mag on Saturday, February 26, 2022 11:25 AM

With the increase in natural gas and oil prices, I would imagine that coal traffic will increase for a while. The closures in coal fueled electric power plants was driven as much by the low price for natural gas as it was by environmental concerns.

  • Member since
    April 2007
  • 4,557 posts
Posted by Convicted One on Saturday, February 26, 2022 9:22 AM

charlie hebdo
And a declarative statement is not followed by a question mark, but a period.

I'm fairly confident that the question mark is intended as a way to solicit if the reader agrees.  That would be my intent if I had written what he wrote. (?, lol)

  • Member since
    September 2017
  • 5,636 posts
Posted by charlie hebdo on Saturday, February 26, 2022 8:43 AM

blue streak 1
Agree:This poster is concerened with the problems that PSR has caused. 

This poster?  Is it possible to simply use the first person singular pronoun when expressing an opinion.  And a declarative statement is not followed by a question mark, but a period.

  • Member since
    January 2002
  • From: Canterlot
  • 9,575 posts
Posted by zugmann on Saturday, February 26, 2022 8:20 AM

blue streak 1
There may be the need to alter some of the HOS rules?  There may also be some extra DODX traffic?

Alter, how?

It's been fun.  But it isn't much fun anymore.   Signing off for now. 


  

The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer, any other railroad, company, or person.t fun any

Join our Community!

Our community is FREE to join. To participate you must either login or register for an account.

Search the Community

Newsletter Sign-Up

By signing up you may also receive occasional reader surveys and special offers from Trains magazine.Please view our privacy policy