SMOKE & MIRRORS:
We are in a new trend of reversing the reopening of the economy. It appears that some states never really intended to reopen the economy. We see this in the original goal of flattening the curve evolving into a new goal of total containment. We see it in the simple reopening being subject to a complicated formula of rules and procedures spread out in many phases over a period of months at least. The Governor of Michigan has said that there is no way of knowing when the State will be completely reopened.
Now, finally to kill the reopening, we are being told of tens of thousands of new cases per day claimed to represent a tremendous spike in new cases to a level many times higher than ever before. We are being assured of this conclusion even though we have no idea what the previous rates of new cases per day were before the massive testing.
At this time many are concluding that the number of new cases per day is dramatically increasing. But we don’t know whether the number of actual new infections is increasing or if it been this high since six months ago. For all we know, the new-case-per-day count is actually falling rather that rising.
It does not make any difference, however, because the hysterical narrative is driving the policy. If you increase the amount of testing each day, and have no base line to compare to, there is no way to conclude that the actual number of new cases materializing each day is rising. Cases found by testing today may have originated last January and persisted without symptoms.
EuclidIt does not make any difference, however, because the hysterical narrative is driving the policy.
Euclid SMOKE & MIRRORS: We are in a new trend of reversing the reopening of the economy. It appears that some states never really intended to reopen the economy. We see this in the original goal of flattening the curve evolving into a new goal of total containment. We see it in the simple reopening being subject to a complicated formula of rules and procedures spread out in many phases over a period of months at least. The Governor of Michigan has said that there is no way of knowing when the State will be completely reopened. Now, finally to kill the reopening, we are being told of tens of thousands of new cases per day claimed to represent a tremendous spike in new cases to a level many times higher than ever before. We are being assured of this conclusion even though we have no idea what the previous rates of new cases per day were before the massive testing. At this time many are concluding that the number of new cases per day is dramatically increasing. But we don’t know whether the number of actual new infections is increasing or if it been this high since six months ago. For all we know, the new-case-per-day count is actually falling rather that rising. It does not make any difference, however, because the hysterical narrative is driving the policy. If you increase the amount of testing each day, and have no base line to compare to, there is no way to conclude that the actual number of new cases materializing each day is rising. Cases found by testing today may have originated last January and persisted without symptoms.
Your ignorance of statistics is showing.
(Deep breath.)
OK, I've said it before, and now I'll say it again.
There's no grand conspiracy, there's no ulterior motives, there's no anything. What there is is a lot of very, very frightened people in positions of authority who NEVER expected to have to deal with an emergency of this nature.* They're running scared and don't know what else to do. The experts aren't much help, the theorys, projections, and predictions change from day to day. Obviously the experts never expected to have to deal with something like this either.
So in the meantime, wear your mask, it won't kill you and will make those around you feel a lot better. Be patient. Ride out the storm. It will end eventually.
* Just a corollary. Ever read any military history? If you have you know there's plenty of examples in the past of men who made very good peacetime commanders but who couldn't rise to the occasion when the shooting started. That's when the good wartime commanders came out of the "woodwork" and took over. Think of that when you think of the reactions of officials around the country when any kind of crisis strikes.
Managing business as usual is one thing. Managing havoc is something else.
JPS1No rational analysis of the data is likely to persuade most people that the sky is not falling.
My point is that there is no data that supports the conclusion about there being a spike or second wave. You cannot show a trend without a sample across time or distance. You certainly cannot show a trend across time or distance if you are continuously increasing your sampling rate.
jcburns Florida's governor is HIDING data that exists on nursing homes and assisted living.
Florida's governor is HIDING data that exists on nursing homes and assisted living.
Do you have proof of that? The real scandal in hiding data with respect to LTC facilities is NY where LTC facility residents who died after being transferred to hopsitals were not counted in the death tolls from long term care facilities.
FWIW,the federal government did tell the governors in early February that they needed to pay attention to LTC facilities and DeSantis prioritized looking after LTC facilities.
York1 jcburns, I want to let you know that I appreciate your views even if I disagree with them. I hope I have not angered you. We can disagree and still appreciate each other's views.
jcburns,
I want to let you know that I appreciate your views even if I disagree with them. I hope I have not angered you.
We can disagree and still appreciate each other's views.
We can certainly disagree on our opinions.
I get nervous when I see people disagreeing on observable facts.
You have a right to your political point of view. I hope you'll keep an open eye to places where those pushing your politics have made things worse, not better.
I think we're entering an era where we need to find new ways of taking care of each other and maybe understanding that the ideas our country was founded on were not set up to take care of all people fairly or equitably. We have to be the country of ALL people, and I include the spectrum of class and income as much or more than that of race or gender.
Put another way, I think pasty white guys (I am one) really screwed over anyone who wasn't the same gender and color as them on their way to the top. And once at the top, a sense of "well, I got mine" let them turn a blind eye to the suffering. They are suffering because someone hustling to the top shoved them out of the way.
Throughout 400 years of history. And not just in the US. All colonizing countries and the colonized have some terrible, terrible tales they'd just as soon move past.
I'd sure like to change ALL of that. And I'm pretty certain that the people who need to lead in this effort are women and people of color. I have and will happily vote for as many of them as I can.
I think our current President is making a stark appeal to people who want time to be rolled back to...when? When was it good for everyone? He thinks a new garden of statuary packed with old white guys is a solution. A solution!
Holy moley.
The Miami Herald has done some great reporting on this. In short, DeSantis has violated Florida open records laws by heavily redacting information and
The Pensacola News Journal reported in May: "The state of Florida is hiding information about coronavirus deaths from citizens. Under the direction of Gov. Ron DeSantis and the Florida Department of Health, the state has consistently refused to inform the public about deaths and infections in Florida nursing homes, prisons and now, coronavirus deaths as documented by public medical examiners."
He told the Herald that starting last Tuesday, due in part to the alarming rise in numbers, the state would return to reporting current hospitalization numbers. That hasn't happened yet.
You said "DeSantis prioritized looking after LTC facilities." He said that, but there's plenty of reporting to the contrary.
The whole thing of saying "the real scandal is in NY" when I'm talking about Florida is a tactic, a rhetorical way of looking away from the real failure in government. In Florida, that failure is right at the top.
jcburnsPut another way, I think pasty white guys (I am one) really screwed over anyone who wasn't the same gender and color as them on their way to the top. And once at the top, a sense of "well, I got mine" let them turn a blind eye to the suffering. They are suffering because someone hustling to the top shoved them out of the way.
So why did you do such a thing?
Do you need help parsing the sentence? I was talking about 400 years of this stuff. I've tried very hard to not screw over anyone, and I'm pretty sure I'm not anywhere near the top. Gonna keep trying.
I did not know it needed parsing.
jcburnsI'm not calling you unsympathetic. I'm saying what you wrote was quite unsympathetic. I was encouraging you to be empathetic and care about your fellow human being.
I know I asked you earlier, but I want to ask again. What did I write that was unempathetic or unsympathetic?
York1 John
Euclid: The most telling statistic is percentage of new testings that are positive (positive infection rate). In some states it has gone from 3-4% to nearly 20%. That is dramatic evidence of a pandemic out of control. OT look at positive cases per capita.
In other words, they are now capturing that 60% of those infected who are asymptomatic.
The 60% number was found early on in two different situations - the USS Roosevelt, and a Boston homeless shelter.
Recovery estimates now range up to 99.75%.
Of course, that doesn't stop the MSM of making a big deal of someout outside the high risk groups getting sick, like kids. Of course, the kids that do get very sick are usually in a high risk group themselves.
Anything to keep us afraid.
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
Larry, I think one of the most destructive ideas out there is that there is this "they"—you're calling it the "mainstream media", some use even nastier terms. I think in part this is because 24 hour cable news has all these live interviews (basically, to take up time) with people tossing opinions out there.
But you have to keep clear that reporters—the ones on the White House beat, the ones covering hot spots overseas, the ones diving through bureaucratic paperwork, the ones interviewing people who have lost loved ones to the virus, these are not people with an agenda, other than tell the story: who, what, where, when, and why.
It's hard work, and when they do it right, it's what keeps our democracy safe and sane.
I worked (as a designer of sorts) for CNN and TBS in the early days. I've sat through dozens of news meetings. I swear to you the reporters and editors are in there figuring out how to tell what happened, how to be an honest broker of what happened. How to get it on the air first and fast. They are not bringing a political agenda into these meetings. I swear to you.
And I'll be the first to tell you I'm disappointed when CNN (like Fox and MSNBC) fills some of its hours with talking heads. Heads in boxes. That is not news reporting. But it's cheaper.
There is definitely a layer of stress added to reporters' jobs now that we have an administration that has figured out if you make stuff up, then people don't know what to believe.
I'm asking you to have faith that most of the people asking the President questions, trying to get a Senator or Congressperson on the record, these are good people who may be more liberal or more conservative in their personal beliefs, but they don't let that affect the basic reporting.
Who, what, when, where, how. It's not glamorous. It is essential. And it's essential we respect it.
These folks are not trying to keep you afraid...they're trying to keep you informed. It's harder to do when you call them names and don't trust them.
So let me just ask one more time: try to keep the commentator types—Hannity, Lemon, Maddow—separate from the reporters who are really working hard for you in a world that increasingly makes fun of them and diminishes their essential work.
charlie hebdo Euclid: The most telling statistic is percentage of new testings that are positive (positive infection rate). In some states it has gone from 3-4% to nearly 20%. That is dramatic evidence of a pandemic out of control. OT look at positive cases per capita.
I understand the need for per capita test results, but I don’t quite see how this can be made practical when testing a portion of the total population each day. The comparison is not in testing the same group at a time interval and seeing how quickly the rate of infection grows over time. That would require testing the same group over and over until no more infections are found.
So, they are testing a different group every day. But the groups are from different regions with different density of infection. So you test a low density group one day and a high density group sometime after. Assuming the groups sizes are the same, do you show an infection rate increase from testing the low density infected group one day and then the high density group sometime later? That would show an infection rate increase where there may be none.
All of this testing is supposed to be extrapolated to show the daily rate of infection for the entire population with selection of test subject selected by them requesting a test. How do you factor/adjust for the possibility that people asking for a test may expect that they have the virus? Aren’t they far more likely to be tested that those who do not expect they have the virus?
And also, when we find a new case of infection today, we have no idea when that person became infected. The infection may have begun 4 months ago. To filter that error out, you would have to be testing the same people repeatedly at intervals. So I would like to hear the explanation of process that resolves all these points of variation and the questions they raise.
EuclidSo I would like to hear the explanation of process that resolves all this points and questions.
Coming from a railfan board.
OK.
It's been fun. But it isn't much fun anymore. Signing off for now.
The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer, any other railroad, company, or person.t fun any
jcburns: I applaud your attempt at education. Unfortunately, based on his key terms, Larry's mind is made up. He clearly believes that the media is exaggerating the dangers of the Covid-19 pandemic for some ulterior motive.
My observation is that the US, which once was a world leader in the medical sciences and applications, now has the world's worst record of controlling this plague. So it's understandable that a certain crowd now tries to portray it as NBD.
charlie hebdoMy observation is that the US, which once was a world leader in the medical sciences and applications, now has the world's worst record of controlling this plague. So it's understandable that a certain crowd now tries to portray it as NBD.
All the medical experts can't even begin to counter the lack of caring for others, esp if it means 3 seconds of personal inconvenience.
As Cuomo said, "Denying [the seriousness of] COVID is really advancing COVID."
99% of cases are harmless? Another dangerous lie. Not when 4.4% die. ~20% are hospitalized. Many have permanent damage.
Thanks for the kind words. I see all these online social environments where people are tweeting and retweeting stuff that isn't true, and for me, well, truth is a very very big deal.
And I've been writing, very often not for fun or profit, since I was very young.
I'm hoping Larry and Euclid and other folks who spend a lot of their days in these places take a few minutes with my words while they're watching an HO loco slowly move around their track and ponder the world as it is now. If they hear nothing but words reinforcing leftover attitudes from the 1950s, it'll be especially hard to have that moment of discovery and humanity. So I'm happy to contribute another point of view to that mix.
Hope everyone is careful out there, not just for yourselves, but for your neighbors on the planet. (And yes, I'm defining 'neighbor' to be within a 25,000 mile or so radius.)
Most of the new cases are from the counties bordering or within driving distance from the Mexican border, and yes, we are flying in covid cases from Mexico
" we are flying in covid cases from Mexico"—who is "we"? Why would "we" do that? Have you tried to get in or out of Mexico or Canada in the past few months?
This sure seems like grade A 100% fiction. Look, this "how a pandemic spreads" stuff is complicated. That's why we send smart kids off to med school to learn about it.
When something this bad is happening on a global basis, it's really smart to listen to those gen-u-ine American experts we've trained and educated.
tree68Anything to keep us afraid.
I always hear this. It's a good sound byte. "they are a-scrared". I had to cancel my vacation plans this year (event didn't happen). I can't just walk into my normal restaurants and grab my food like I used to (I hate sitting in drive-thru lines). The one grocery store I go to isn't 24/7 anymore.
I'm not scared. If anything, I'm pissed. It's annoying, its aggravating, it makes more work, but fear is not one of the things I feel. I may end up with the virus (as all of us may). May the odds forever be in my favor - but who knows. I'd rather not get it - esp considering how the RR medical thing works - but I'll make the few simple inconveniences that hopefully increase my odds of not getting it. But it isn't out of fear.
jcburnsLarry, I think one of the most destructive ideas out there is that there is this "they"—you're calling it the "mainstream media", some use even nastier terms. I think in part this is because 24 hour cable news has all these live interviews (basically, to take up time) with people tossing opinions out there.
Find out who's "signing" the MSM's paychecks. There is an agenda, though most don't want to admit that something like that could happen in this country. Our politicians are all honest and above-board, right?
I won't deny the virus is real, but I do take exception to how it seems that every time there's some good news (ie, lessening numbers, possible effective treatments) the information is quickly "debunked." Usually, it turns out to be true, but at the time, it didn't meet the narrative.
It was suggested this spring that schools should go to big box stores and hold their graduations there, as there didn't seem to be any problem with people gathering there, even as graduation ceremonies were being done virtually because such gatherings were a threat to our health.
People couldn't go to a drive-in church service in the parking lot.
At this point, most of the big box stores should have closed due to lack of help, since their employees see thousands of people each day.
Back during flu season this past year, we had several schools close because they didn't have enough staff or students. But they were open within a day or two.
Yes, the virus is real. Also very real is the political maneuvering by a good many politicians. I refer to them as "petit tyrants," and most of them are having trouble letting go of their new-found power.
I'm asking again since something you said has bothered me.
After you had posted four straight comments decrying leadership, I wrote the following:
York1This is like watching an evening of PMSNBC.
You later wrote:
jcburnsYeah, York1, it's way easier to do namecalling than it is to do empathy and concern for your fellow humans. Although...you could give it a try? Might feel...refreshing!
I thought the little play on the name was just as cute as several of our other posters here do when they write Faux News.
You called that name-calling. OK, I'll accept that.
What I don't accept is that you accuse me of not having empathy and concern for my fellow humans. What else was I to infer from your comment that I could give it a try?
You are just as much a part of the problem as the people you are criticizing. You accuse me without knowing anything about me except a silly word play on a network name.
Maybe you should quit judging people with your broad brush. Might feel ... refreshing!
York1Maybe you should quit judging people with your broad brush. Might feel ... refreshing!
We're creeping toward the tolerance paradox.
Here's another one:
jcburnsI'd sure like to change ALL of that. And I'm pretty certain that the people who need to lead in this effort are women and people of color. I have and will happily vote for as many of them as I can.
What exactly are you saying? It sounds like you would vote for someone because they are a minority or a woman.
I would vote for someone who is willing to do the hard work of reestablishing our traditions of fairness, being welcome to immigrants, making sure that working class people get a more fair share of the profits from the labor they do.
Just so happens lately many of these folks have been Black, Hispanic, Asian, or women. Or combinations thereof! My congressman is a civil rights legend. My mayor kept our city smart during the protests and unrest following the latest police shooting. Our governor and senators, however, are from the "make as much money as you can on the backs of people lesser than you" school, and they are indeed an embarrassment.
The way it's shaping up though I'm looking forward in November to electing a train-loving Delawarian white guy to replace the incumbent--and I'm confident that he'll be backed by super-smart staff, counsel, cabinet members, and majorities in the legislature from very VERY diverse backgrounds who will begin the difficult, largely thankless slog of rebuilding...people's lives, the rule of law, America's reputation worldwide.
Man, what a task.
Someone... quickly ... tell me what to believe.
The current WH occupant has been widely criticized for his advocacy of the drug hydroxychloroquine. Health organizations say it doesn't work on covid19.
Now, we hear this:
A Henry Ford Health System study shows the controversial anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine helps lower the death rate of COVID-19 patients, the Detroit-based health system said Thursday.
Officials with the Michigan health system said the study found the drug “significantly” decreased the death rate of patients involved in the analysis.
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/07/02/michigan-henry-ford-health-study-finds-hydroxychloroquine-lowers-covid-19-death-rate/5365090002/
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