This last cluster of comments are hilarious to read. You guys should get together , observing SD of course, and do a skit.
EuclidBut the overall problem seems insurmountable by any practical method. What do you do about the virus that might be on your clothes, shoes, bare skin, and hair? It seems that before entering the house, one would need an outdoor shower with a way to change out of clothing, shower, and put on clean clothing. The used clothing would need to be immediately lanundered and stored away. This "shopping clothing" would be standardized like a uniform for simplicity.
Well, you are quite right, of course. And that is exactly why I am glad that I don't have to go to work. That I only have to venture out for "survival" type errands, and that when I am forced to do so, I don't have to share the same shopping aisle with someone who spent the previous 8 hours in a crowded bowling alley, bar, restaurant or theater.
These critics of the shelter in place policies act like it is only their welfare on the line if they were allowed to go back to the old ways, but that really is not true. They become "the straw that stirs the drink" regardless if they recognize that or not.
The store I buy my groceries in has had signs up on their entrances for several weeks reminding people to maintain safe distances, and keep their shopping party as small as possible to minimize risks.(seems like I do just fine shopping alone, why shouldn't everyone?)
But on my way into the store the other day, out comes this woman with three young children in tow, one of them just coughing away from the bottom of her lungs. They were all wearing masks, but still it seemed very inconsiderate to even bring someone in that condition into the store in the first place.
I've also noticed that "safe distancing" lasts only about as long as it takes someone to realize that the product they want happens to be between my cart and the wall, and they just barge in. I've seriously thought about belting a few of them.
A light overcast may be the best source of UV for deactivating the virus, with the clouds contributing to more uniform exposure of UV. A few minutes of walking around in normal daylight on a warm day should kill off the vast majority of the virus.
From what I understand, there isn't a clear consensus on how short the wavelength of UV is needed for deactivating the virus - note that normal daylight is very effective. There's some thought that a "black light" UV source would work - which would be fantastic news if true, allowing for "black lights" to do indoors what sunlight does outdoors. One downside is that "black lights" are NOT black for people with cataract surgery - know that from personal experience.
I would expect that a normal wash cycle would effective using either a dryer or outdoor clothes line in bright daylight.
Euclid ...the overall problem seems insurmountable by any practical method. What do you do about the virus that might be on your clothes, shoes, bare skin, and hair? It seems that before entering the house, one would need an outdoor shower with a way to change out of clothing, shower, and put on clean clothing.
Fortunately, SARS-CoV-2 isn't quite like radioactive material, where even very small particles can be 'sure' to produce radiological or chemical poisoning if they enter the body, and so have to be removed as close to 100% as possible 100% of the time.
Remember that the virus is only 'superinfective' on human cells that express ACE2 enzyme complex -- not all cells do -- and that the 'normal' human defenses against 'colds' -- mucus in the nose and sinuses, for eample -- will still be protective. Remember also that the virus is easy to 'deactivate' both in the sense of making it less 'infective', and in destroying the genomic structure to the point the complex chemical 'trick' that is complete viral replication doesn't work.
The business about the 'groceries' seemed to me to be assuming the 'virus' concern was on the outside of paper sacks -- the time being about that attributed to viral 'endurance' on cardboard or paper surfaces.
Yes, the actual groceries inside the sack may have longer persistence, especially if in handling they have acquired either 'fomite contamination' or skin oils (in which the envelope of the virus can keep its infectious protein configuration longer) -- and they should be individually washed or wiped with sanitizer to remove the virus particles or denature the genome inside.
Washing involves both the use of a proper surfactant or soap AND both adequate rinse volume and good drainage away from sink surfaces to work, unless some sanitizing agent capable of prompt genomic denaturation is also present. I would not assume that 'germicidal' soaps necessarily can accomplish this, so 'use lots of water and be sure the runoff goes down the drain'...
Sanitizing with wipes does have a certain amount of film emulsification and removal added to the 'biocidal' or 'virucidal' action. That, to me, implies somewhat more absorbency than a small 'moist towelette' style wipe possesses. Of course, if you wipe something down on 'all sides' and put it into a reasonably pre-cleaned refrigerator, you've taken reasonable precautions -- and you'll take more when you wash your hands before taking that package out of the fridge and prepare to open it.
The used clothing would need to be immediately lanundered and stored away.
'Sanitizing' would likely be sufficient; this could be done with a spray or vapor, or with something applying an appropriate 'virucidal' material to the surface of the clothing. As Erik and others have noted, UV light (even the UV component in open sunlight) 'kills' the virus relatively fast and relatively well. I haven't seen discussions of how effectively 'bounced' sunlight sanitizes virally-contaminated surfaces ... but 'laying your shopping clothes out in the sun' on both sides should work even on cloudy days (the effective wavelengths of UV go right through most cloud cover, don't ask me how I confirmed this).
This "shopping clothing" would be standardized like a uniform for simplicity.
It would be tempting to suggest that some of the Level 5 biohazard suiting techniques (I think also of those Intel 'bunny suits') might be adapted for shopping -- think of the fun of shoppers 'socially distanced' in Mylar oversuits with full face-shield coverage with blowdown seals and 'correct' MERV filtering -- but care would have to be taken not to make the things look like moon suits, or poison-gas PPE. Sends the wrong message about recovery...
Meanwhile, all the groceries would have to be stored in their bags for some time interval, which experts find impossible to agree on. I would say at least one week would be playing it fairly safe.
Better, I think, just to treat the groceries as 'contaminated until trustably cleaned' -- and let the outsides get 'reasonably decontaminated' for transport inside as recommended. You'd have to take the various groceries (with their various propensities to retain virus particles) out of the bags anyway, and it's common sense to presume (as you have) that the things tending to reduce contamination on the bags might not equally tend to reduce contamination on the contents...
Then the entire vehicle would need to be sanitized. I would use something like one of those Chinese power atomizer/blower units dispensing some type of disinfectant.
I suspect that what gets the most 'consumer traction' would be something like a cross between a flea bomb and one of those periodically-spraying bathroom sanitizers. You'd keep this in your car, and before leaving it press the 'button' to have it nebulize a 'cycle' worth of vapor (that you or anything you care about won't have to breathe) together with that fresh scent of clean of your choice, in enough quantity that statistical sanitization of 'virus present' is reasonably assured. Does not require USB charging or other power, and to me would have less problem of 'failsafe' that a powered device does. Probably wise to have some sort of countdown gauge like the film counter on a camera advising how long until you need a new one...
Oh yeah... and do what we do. Carry wipes, and get your door handles before you pull them, and your steering-wheel contact areas, and various controls, and occasionally the pedals and seat surfaces. We presume that surfaces 'contacted by exhaled breath' can be contaminated and periodically wipe them down. Keep shoe covers in the car, take them off when you get out and put them back on as you enter. It remains to be seen how much of this ought to remain 'new normal' over time, but as long as large percentages of people remain effectively 'unexposed' (to the point they acquire proven effective immunity to infection, something certainly not yet done to my satisfaction) at least some of them remain significant.
(As an aside: going back to the original topic of this thread -- some analogue to this might be used for rail equipment. The professional railroaders are already starting to laugh. But perhaps something might finally start to be done at corporate level toward ensuring sanitary cabs and railings ... and disciplining the culprits while protecting those with better sense of responsibility... while providing the materials and potions 'free' to assure safety.)
There is also the possibility that virus lands on your face or hair while shopping in the store. So even though one adheres to the admonition to not touch their face, the virus may land on their face and enter their mouth, eyes, or nose before they get back to the decontamination shower.
It helps more than a bit that SARS-CoV-2 supposedly gets deactivated fairly quickly when not 'contained' in something like a breath droplet, so you don't have the terrible communicability that some kinds of influenza do. I am beginning to think that adequate 'droplet control' really will solve most of the casual-virus-deposition issue, and that only slight amounts will 'plate out' -- of course, if you're 'unlucky' even small amounts "might" cause infection, so some people might not be wrong to be more 'paranoid' about slight contact.
I think the lion's share of 'reducing need for social distancing' involves correct masking against spread -- this being a combination of filtration, moisture absorption, and exhalation-blowdown control. A simple absorbent mask across nose and mouth -- particularly mouth -- combined with one of those over-bandannas that cover the neck is one example: the considerable mass flow and force of talking, sneezing, or coughs cannot blow out around the top edges but preferentially blows down 'under cover' and is vented inside the envelope of the clothing ... where any virus can be sanitized away from contact with public surfaces.
Then keep fomites down when possible on public surfaces, and observe careful wash or sanitization discipline after contacting public surfaces, both with 'handwashing' and with good periodic hand sanitization.
Unless you actually contact surfaces on which droplets have settled with your face, or hair, or heaven forbid mucous membranes, I think the actual risk is relatively minimum for this virus. So I'd do little more than a quick 'outside sanitizing' of exposed skin and hair before going into a 'clean environment' ... which is a whole 'nother discussion involving practical negative pressure, potential filtration considerations, viral capture in airflow, and other things.
EuclidIt seems that before entering the house, one would need an outdoor shower with a way to change out of clothing, shower, and put on clean clothing.
My neighbors already signed a petition against that.
It's been fun. But it isn't much fun anymore. Signing off for now.
The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer, any other railroad, company, or person.t fun any
Convicted One Convicted One Euclid said: " Then you carry in several bags of groceries, all of which can have virus. " To which I replied: " I strive to leave everything just purchsed alone in storage at least 24 hours after getting home". I find it reassuring to see the FDA jumping on my bandwagon: "One reasonable and easy-to-implement precaution for groceries that don't need refrigeration is simply to let them sit for a day or more before unpacking them," he said. "This will vastly reduce the level of any contamination that is present." From CNN
Convicted One Euclid said: " Then you carry in several bags of groceries, all of which can have virus. " To which I replied: " I strive to leave everything just purchsed alone in storage at least 24 hours after getting home".
Euclid said: " Then you carry in several bags of groceries, all of which can have virus. "
To which I replied: " I strive to leave everything just purchsed alone in storage at least 24 hours after getting home".
I find it reassuring to see the FDA jumping on my bandwagon:
From CNN
I think that is fine. I do about the same thing to some extent. But the overall problem seems insurmountable by any practical method. What do you do about the virus that might be on your clothes, shoes, bare skin, and hair? It seems that before entering the house, one would need an outdoor shower with a way to change out of clothing, shower, and put on clean clothing. The used clothing would need to be immediately lanundered and stored away. This "shopping clothing" would be standardized like a uniform for simplicity.
Then the entire vehical would need to be sanitized. I would use something like one of those Chinese power atomizer/blower units dispensing some type of disinfectant.
BaltACDFrozen foods get a little soggy!
I guess I've always been a bit obsessive in that regard.
When I shop, I always bag frozen foods and packaged refrigerated items together at check out. Usually the frozen items in the center of the bag, with things like cheeses, bacon, etc all around the 4 sides.
Produce in another, and then non-perishables grouped by purpose in other bags.
So, frozen items are unpacked and put immediately in the freezer for at least a day as well.
This all works because it is my policy to always eat before grocery shopping, so the day's delay is never any problem.
quoting the FDA......One reasonable and easy-to-implement precaution for groceries that don't need refrigeration...
Frozen foods get a little soggy!
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
Overmod PJS1, your last post got lost in the quote-tag formatting. Could you please repeat the text of your reply in its own window so I'm sure what you said?
Done. I got a message that my reply was a duplicate; it wasn't.
Rio Grande Valley, CFI,CFII
PJS1, your last post got lost in the quote-tag formatting. Could you please repeat the text of your reply in its own window so I'm sure what you said?
(Edit: I see you have. Thanks!)
tree68Research, formal and accidental, is starting to show that thousands, even millions, of people already have this virus in their systems, with no ill effects. It remains to be seen if those folks are infectious or not.
CDC was making some interesting commentary, as a kind of 'retrospective lite study', on this issue just before they stopped tracking global stats in the second week in March.
The problem is that it's fundamentally wrong to find out whether they're infectious or not by throwing everyone in the pond to see who now can swim.
At least until they get the finger out and start actively pre-treating people at risk for ARDS, or older cohorts at risk with co-morbidities or 'aggravating factors'. And y'all will note how incredibly backward most of the 'official' response has been on this, fully to date.
I had someone give me a half-hour analogy of statistics day before yesterday, without once mentioning that infection rates for SARS-CoV-2 are only second-order correlated with ARDS progression. I think this is related to why no one accurately tries to track the 'recovered' but obsess instead over trying to keep the absolute infection rate utterly minimized even though that's a near-entirely forced-orbit solution.
Now, one thing that's an option for the would-be fascisti is retaining mandatory SIP/SD for 'cohorts at risk' -- in other words, the elderly or the over-50s are still encouraged (or compelled depending on your politics) to stay in known surroundings, use full social distancing (now with better control, such as absence of talking and more frequent periodic hand and face sanitizing) etc., while those serologically or otherwise tested positive then receive follow-on testing from nasal/lung viral RNA sequence until they are reasonably 'shed-free'.
Alas, what I'm expecting is the modern equivalent of 'who gets the ticket when a jaywalker steps in front of a car in California' -- the old folks will be mandatorily isolated, like it or not, and all the proven infected will have to wear the yellow 12-pointed virus star and keep their distance --Unclean! Unclean! -- until the government gives them their official immunity clearance papers and internal pass.
And probably go after their guns a la Katrina, and start using all that firepower salted away from the FEMA procurements, and otherwise Showing How The Government Is Resolving This Crisis... no, wait, it's still too early for that. At least, I hope it is.
oltmanndGA, starting this weekend, is going to run a dangerous experiment on 10 million people. Make it 9,999,999 people. I'm not participating.
A point made elsewhere. It's a free country - you're free not to participate in the reopening.
Research, formal and accidental, is starting to show that thousands, even millions, of people already have this virus in their systems, with no ill effects. It remains to be seen if those folks are infectious or not.
You may wonder what I mean by "accidental" research. That would be cases such as the Boston homeless shelter and the USS Theodore Roosevelt where testing was done to discover the extent of the infection and it was found that many "infected" people were asymptomatic, indicating that there's a bigger picture here. Not everyone who tests positive is guaranteed to get sick.
The Stamford study showed that potentially 50 to 80 times as many people have the virus in their systems as previously thought.
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
Paul_D_North_Jr "One death is a tragedy, and a million is a statistic." - Iosef Vissarionovich Stalin, as quoted by President Jack Ryan on page 750 of Executive Orders (Tom Clancy, 1996). The context there was an Ebola epidemic in the U.S. [only]. Worth reading: " . . . personal interactions are minimized, and that's how you stop one of these things." (same page, but by an infectious disesases expert) Two reasonably short articles with a common author - neither behind a 'paywall' as far as I can tell - from almost 3 weeks ago advocating group testing to return to normal quickly. What they don't address is where those tests are going to come from. One of the authors of the first - likely the son of the other author - has some decent credentials. https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/490300-how-to-get-the-economy-safely-back-to-work-in-just-2-weeks#bottom-story-socials A quote: "If after a month the infection and death rates are down, which they surely will be, and we release everyone back into the wild, the rates will go right back up." https://www.forbes.com/sites/kotlikoff/2020/03/29/group-testing-is-our-secret-weapon-against-coronavirus/#5449911936a6 I'll leave it to someone else to comment on some of the implications of these articles. One that struck me is it would require essentially mandatory testing by the government to get some of our freedom of movement back. Difficult tradeoffs. - PDN.
"One death is a tragedy, and a million is a statistic." - Iosef Vissarionovich Stalin, as quoted by President Jack Ryan on page 750 of Executive Orders (Tom Clancy, 1996). The context there was an Ebola epidemic in the U.S. [only]. Worth reading: " . . . personal interactions are minimized, and that's how you stop one of these things." (same page, but by an infectious disesases expert)
Two reasonably short articles with a common author - neither behind a 'paywall' as far as I can tell - from almost 3 weeks ago advocating group testing to return to normal quickly. What they don't address is where those tests are going to come from. One of the authors of the first - likely the son of the other author - has some decent credentials.
https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/490300-how-to-get-the-economy-safely-back-to-work-in-just-2-weeks#bottom-story-socials A quote: "If after a month the infection and death rates are down, which they surely will be, and we release everyone back into the wild, the rates will go right back up."
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kotlikoff/2020/03/29/group-testing-is-our-secret-weapon-against-coronavirus/#5449911936a6
I'll leave it to someone else to comment on some of the implications of these articles. One that struck me is it would require essentially mandatory testing by the government to get some of our freedom of movement back. Difficult tradeoffs.
- PDN.
GA, starting this weekend, is going to run a dangerous experiment on 10 million people. Make it 9,999,999 people. I'm not participating.
-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/)
Right now over-the-road servce levels can be had at near rail prices.. That should tell you how covid19 will affect rail.. at least for commodities that are transferrable to road.
PsychotSo what do you think is going to happen if you reopen upstate NY? Might it be possible that people from the city will flee upstate so they can go out to restaurants, etc? What do you think that will do to your infection statistics?
Trust me - we've already had to deal with it. I live in an area with a lot of "summer homes." Local officials have already attempted to make it known that if you show up from outside the area, you need to be able to self-quarantine for fourteen days, just like anyone else.
So far, the impact appears to be minimal. Since the marinas were closed, those folks who wanted to open up their cottages and get their boats in the water from storage were not able to do so. I suspect that many of the local contractors who open cottages and summer homes for their owners have also expressed the desire for those folks to simply stay home.
Never mind the City - a fair number of seasonal home owners in this area are from other metro areas, especially Syracuse and Rochester. I think those folks are a little more sensitive to the need to keep this thing under some semblance of control. Those metro areas are being hit, but not to the extent of the City.
With New Yorker's - you never know!
tree68 MidlandMike What do you think caused the reduction in infection rate? The fact that we are already essentially socially distanced. It's fifty yards from my house to the other occupied houses in my neighborhood (the house next door is empty, and still 25 yards away). Even the local bar (currently closed) only has about a dozen regular patrons. I live in a hamlet of about 300 people. The surrounding area is farmland. The first two confirmed cases in the county actually came in from downstate. We don't have mass transit, except in the nearby city of 25,000, and that isn't usually packed. Our fire department chicken barbeque was one of the last events of it's kind in the area before the "pause." We sold 475 halves/meals to some 200 people in about an hour and a half. We only do take-out now anyhow, so no change there. I know of no COVID fallout from the event.
MidlandMike What do you think caused the reduction in infection rate?
The fact that we are already essentially socially distanced.
It's fifty yards from my house to the other occupied houses in my neighborhood (the house next door is empty, and still 25 yards away). Even the local bar (currently closed) only has about a dozen regular patrons. I live in a hamlet of about 300 people. The surrounding area is farmland.
The first two confirmed cases in the county actually came in from downstate.
We don't have mass transit, except in the nearby city of 25,000, and that isn't usually packed.
Our fire department chicken barbeque was one of the last events of it's kind in the area before the "pause." We sold 475 halves/meals to some 200 people in about an hour and a half. We only do take-out now anyhow, so no change there. I know of no COVID fallout from the event.
So what do you think is going to happen if you reopen upstate NY? Might it be possible that people from the city will flee upstate so they can go out to restaurants, etc? What do you think that will do to your infection statistics?
MidlandMikeWhat do you think would happen if the BBQ were held now, and a few random tourist attended?
There are chicken barbeques going on - generally similar to ours, some drive-through. No 'eat-in' offered, as with ours. As long as people maintain social distancing, it doesn't really matter.
So, the answer to your question is nothing that wouldn't happen if you went to the grocery store...
MidlandMike Maybe you will have a chance to compare. On the news tonight they showed that Sweden was going to try to see what will happen without social distancing as the pandemic starts to roll over them. They are setting up field hospitals just incase things go bad. Their infection rate is increasing at 5 and 10 times the rate as their two neighboring countries on either side.
Maybe you will have a chance to compare. On the news tonight they showed that Sweden was going to try to see what will happen without social distancing as the pandemic starts to roll over them. They are setting up field hospitals just incase things go bad. Their infection rate is increasing at 5 and 10 times the rate as their two neighboring countries on either side.
In terms of death per capita, Sweden is a bit worse than Wash DC and better than Massachusetts. Reports indicate that about half of the deaths are at nursing homes, which unfortunately is inline with the experience with most other countries.
In the US, Wyoming is showing the lowest per capita death rate and the lowest death rate per confirmed case with 2 deaths out of 400+ confirmed cases. Makes me wonder if Wyoming has been taking extra care to protect the elderly or that the elderly may be in better shape.
Texas has the best record of the high population states, though California outside of LA and Santa Clara counties isn't much worse. One thing they did do was require quarantine of anyone coming from the NYC or New Orleans area. The death rate versus confirmed case ratio is also lower than the other large states.
Just a thought, but they have this huge fund set aside to pay the $600/week federal unemployment payments.
If they somehow managed to hustle everyone back to work, whose pocket would the funds remaining undistributed fall into? Could that be twisted into some sort of unsupervised pork?
tree68Our fire department chicken barbeque was one of the last events of it's kind in the area before the "pause." We sold 475 halves/meals to some 200 people in about an hour and a half. We only do take-out now anyhow, so no change there. I know of no COVID fallout from the event.
What do you think would happen if the BBQ were held now, and a few random tourist attended?
tree68 "Pop Rocks" are not alive, but when you add water.... Pretty much the same thing with a virus.
"Pop Rocks" are not alive, but when you add water....
Pretty much the same thing with a virus.
Just because the Pop Rocks and the virus perform similar activity, it does not necessarily follow that because the Pop Rocks are not alive, the virus must not be alive. I think it is quite possible that the virus is alive and does have a sense of purpose and intent. But I don't think it can be proven whether or not virus is alive. For one thing, you must have a defintion of life, and not everyone will agree on that definition.
azrail We fought wars and ran businesses while waves of polio and measles hit the country. How did we survive?
We fought wars and ran businesses while waves of polio and measles hit the country. How did we survive?
Before vaccines, the paralysis rate for polio was .5%, and the death rate was below .05%. The measles death rate was 1 in 10,000.
tree68 MidlandMike It should be obvious to anyone whose has seen the evening news from New York City. New York City. Once you get north of Westchester County, it's a whole different world. Outside of the metro areas of Albany, Syracuse, Rochester, and Buffalo, you have entire counties with well under 100 total confirmed cases - and few of them are in the hospital. They are all isolating at home. My county has exactly two people in the hospital. And only 42 confirmed cases since the whole shebang started. The media rarely reports the thousands of confirmed cases that have recovered, either. I think we've had either two or four deaths in a four county area. Ninety percent of the cases in New York state are in the NYC metro area. With the advent of antibody testing and more universal virus testing, the death rate will continue to drop. At one point, millions were going to die. Then it was hundreds of thousands. Now it's tens of thousands. Not insignificant, but no where near what the original doomsayers were predicting.
MidlandMike It should be obvious to anyone whose has seen the evening news from New York
City. New York City. Once you get north of Westchester County, it's a whole different world. Outside of the metro areas of Albany, Syracuse, Rochester, and Buffalo, you have entire counties with well under 100 total confirmed cases - and few of them are in the hospital. They are all isolating at home. My county has exactly two people in the hospital. And only 42 confirmed cases since the whole shebang started. The media rarely reports the thousands of confirmed cases that have recovered, either.
I think we've had either two or four deaths in a four county area.
Ninety percent of the cases in New York state are in the NYC metro area.
With the advent of antibody testing and more universal virus testing, the death rate will continue to drop. At one point, millions were going to die. Then it was hundreds of thousands. Now it's tens of thousands. Not insignificant, but no where near what the original doomsayers were predicting.
Sure, NY City is a hub of international travel and commerce, and is densely populated, which should explain its early and quick spread. Didn't your govenor put in place those mitigation rules you are objecting to, before the virus had a chance to take hold in upstate NY? What do you think caused the reduction in infection rate?
BaltACDThe reality of the situation is that we don't know all that we think we know and we also don't know everything that we don't know.
But it is equally a reality of the situation that we do know all that we really need to know, to start addressing the medical side of the situation; we also don't know everything we can't know (which no amount of delayed studies will ultimately give us).
Learning takes time and controls as to what is being observed so that we can actually know something - for fact.
Unfortunately, there are also cases where learning is ignored, or other theories are substituted for a while, instead of conducting learning in, say, a properly scientific way that builds on facts and knowledge to build further fact and knowledge reproduceably. That too can be seen as applying to railroads, in various flavors of PSR for example.
The problem is that when people start dying, some of the learning has to be accelerated -- and it becomes increasingly clear that quite a bit of learning that SHOULD have been conducted on effective pandemic response has, for various reasons, not been done or even effectively planned for. In this particular case, there was quite enough collective wisdom to handle many of the difficulties, including the expedient production and logistics of key materials and technology -- and the ball has been fumbled at a remarkable number of levels, by a fairly remarkable number of people who easily could or should have known better. That, too, has been a learning process that took time and involved at least some implicit controls on what was observed before acting; it is one of my great hopes that the more important of the resulting lessons are now clear enough to guide policy, no matter how 'expensive' parts of that policy may seem in 'peacetime' (or after a self-crippling poorly-evaluated economic shutdown), going forward.
The realtiy of the situation is that we don't know all that we think we know and we also don't know everything that we don't know.
Learning takes time and controls as to what is being observed so that we can actually know something - for fact. The learning also applies to railroads.
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