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Effects of the pandemic on the rail industry?

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  • Member since
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Posted by zugmann on Thursday, April 16, 2020 8:49 PM

tree68
It is, but many people seem to believe it means that they won't catch it themselves at all...

A lot of people have a 4th grade understanding of science.

tree68
On the other hand, wouldn't you prefer to have your business completely shut down for a couple of weeks, then be back running full force after that, as opposed to limping along with few customers, etc for months more?  

Depends on the business.  But nobody wants to shut down.  I mean several people ( I believe Bill Gates) have pretty much said that we should completely shut down for a month and then reopen.   Right now, we are half-doing everything.  

And there's only so many hospitals, so many ICUs, so many ventiators, so many medical people.  The goal is to not need all of them.  But if everyone gets sick at once...

tree68
A whole bunch of folks in Michigan did push back.  

A group of people that gathered in a big mass.  Becuase that makes sense. 

It's been fun.  But it isn't much fun anymore.   Signing off for now. 


  

The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer, any other railroad, company, or person.t fun any

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Posted by tree68 on Thursday, April 16, 2020 8:32 PM

zugmann
Isn't the the point?  So the medical system isn't completely overloaded?

It is, but many people seem to believe it means that they won't catch it themselves at all...

On the other hand, wouldn't you prefer to have your business completely shut down for a couple of weeks, then be back running full force after that, as opposed to limping along with few customers, etc for months more?  

Many small businesses here are hurting - dairy farmers are dumping milk, with some afraid they will go under.  

Some government "leaders" are so taken with their current ability to rule by fiat that they really don't want to give up that control.  Banning golf - the original social distancing game.  Setting curfews, so you can't take a walk around the block by yourself after 9PM.  Closing parks and beaches.  It's like they're testing us to see how much we'll take before we push back.  A whole bunch of folks in Michigan did push back.  

LarryWhistling
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There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...

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Posted by zugmann on Thursday, April 16, 2020 8:10 PM

tree68
I'm afraid all the efforts to "flatten the curve" are simply going to extend the event.

Isn't the the point?  So the medical system isn't completely overloaded?

 

You have a terminal of 50 people.  Would you rather have 3 off at a time for 2-3 weeks each throughout the next several months, or have 48 off all at once?

It's been fun.  But it isn't much fun anymore.   Signing off for now. 


  

The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer, any other railroad, company, or person.t fun any

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Posted by tree68 on Thursday, April 16, 2020 7:48 PM

Convicted One
I'm going to stick my neck out and guess the country will start to ramp back up May 15, assuming some form of order comes out of the chaos.

I'm afraid all the efforts to "flatten the curve" are simply going to extend the event.  Unless a vaccine is found (one estimate has that not happening until 2022), or the virus dies out, everyone is eventually going to get infected, whether they get sick or not.  

As long as people continue to test positive, the powers that be will enjoy their power trip and keep things locked down.

New York's governor just extended the lockdown from the end of April to the middle of May.  I foresee another extension after that.

LarryWhistling
Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) 
Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you
My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date
Come ride the rails with me!
There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...

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Posted by Paul_D_North_Jr on Thursday, April 16, 2020 7:35 PM

In another thread on this Forum, a couple days ago Randy Vos - an owner-operator trucker - said he was glad he signed up for a contract with one of the paper mills (yes, hauling TP and the the paper for the rolls it gets wound on), because of the low rates other truckers are getting.  

Back to rails, today I saw an article from Railway Age about an AAR report that rail volumes are down 20 - 25% compared to the same week a year ago, pretty much for railcars, intermodal, and combined.  Most commodity groups were down by wildly varying percentages (autos was -87.7% !) except grain, which had a modest increase of 2.7%.  Here's the link to it - has a heckuva graph at the top of the article:

https://www.railwayage.com/freight/class-i/rail-traffic-down-but-aar-remains-optimistic/?utm_source=&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=14375   

- PDN. 

"This Fascinating Railroad Business" (title of 1943 book by Robert Selph Henry of the AAR)
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Posted by Convicted One on Thursday, April 16, 2020 7:21 PM

steve-in-kville
Thoughts on this? Perhaps my imagination is getting the best of me?

I'd guess that the extra boards are turning pretty slow right now.  But surely some rail customers are "essential" businesses. 

I'm going to stick my neck out and guess the country will start to ramp back up May 15, assuming some form of order comes out of the chaos.

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Posted by greyhounds on Thursday, April 16, 2020 6:57 PM

The trucking industry is not working overtime.  They're in deep decline in terms of volume and prices.

I hope this link works for you.

https://www.dat.com/blog/post/van-freight-volume-and-rates-slide-as-economy-stalls?utm_source=sfmc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NL_Carrier&utm_term=4852039&utm_content=NL_Carrier_2020_04_16

There is no way the truckers are clearing costs at many of the rates cited.  They're running for cash, trying to keep their equipment from being repo'd and their insurance good.

The truck freight market approaches perfect competition.  When demand craters, as it has, the supply of trucks doesn't go down much.  That forces prices down.  How long they can stand that is unknown.

Note: A "Van" or "Dry Van" is a box trailer with no refrigeration system.

"By many measures, the U.S. freight rail system is the safest, most efficient and cost effective in the world." - Federal Railroad Administration, October, 2009. I'm just your average, everyday, uncivilized howling "anti-government" critic of mass government expenditures for "High Speed Rail" in the US. And I'm gosh darn proud of that.
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Effects of the pandemic on the rail industry?
Posted by steve-in-kville on Wednesday, April 15, 2020 7:09 AM

I don't log every train I see/hear, but I live near the NS mainline. I can honestly say that typically Sundays are a slower day on the tracks and Mondays I hear mostly local customers being serviced. 

The past few Sundays appeared to be a typical busy day, there really wasn't much of a slow down. I'm seeing more container trains than anything else, a few mixed trains and its been a while that I've seen tanker trains... but that is my personal observations.

I'd imagine if the trucking industry is working overtime, the railroads have to keep pace as well. Thoughts on this? Perhaps my imagination is getting the best of me?

Regards - Steve

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