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Canadian Pacific Norfolk Southern Merger

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Posted by Miningman on Monday, February 15, 2016 3:12 PM

Well in light of Einsteins space/time continuum being recently verified and 'proven" how about someone appearing, in say 1955, and announcing to various shareholders and executives that the Canadian Pacific Railway is seeking to purchase the Pennsylannia RR, the N&W, the Erie RR, the Lackawanna RR, the Southern and all its affiliates, the Wabash, the Nickel Plate, the D&H and numerous other smaller but important carriers all in one fell swoop, then I think you would have been put in a straight jacket and taken to the looney bin. In essence this is what is happening and, to me at least, seems pretty absurd...and I'm a Canadian and the CPR is my favourite by a mile, but c'mon, what a crazy thing is this!

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Posted by Electroliner 1935 on Monday, February 15, 2016 1:45 PM

Orwell lives. Doublespeak is alive and well. 

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Posted by Victrola1 on Monday, February 15, 2016 7:14 AM

The War of the White Papers now has a web site. 

http://cpconsolidation.com/

 

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Posted by CSSHEGEWISCH on Friday, February 12, 2016 7:01 AM

The C in C-Liner stands for Consolidation, so this would also fit:

http://www.rrpicturearchives.net/showPicture.aspx?id=1599807

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Posted by kgbw49 on Thursday, February 11, 2016 5:30 PM

Here is one CP Consolidation that we can probably all agree on that we like...well, except maybe for Mr. Harrison...

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Posted by Ulrich on Thursday, February 11, 2016 10:07 AM

They didn't have good numbers to those who cared to look close enough and had some understanding of these businesses. I'm no forensic accountant but I was able to see the writing on the wall about Nortel and bailed out long before their accounting troubles became public. If one takes the time to study the reports then unexplained inconsistencies usually reveal themselves even to the nonaccountant. This is why I don't own stock in more than three companies... I'd never have the time to study all those reports.  

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Posted by jeffhergert on Wednesday, February 10, 2016 11:16 PM

Ulrich

Activist investors aren't necessarily a bad thing. CP is a much better company today thanks to Ackman, HH,  and Keith Creel. I know that some here might disagree with that, but the numbers are the numbers.  I'm not really sold on the merger.. doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me, but then again, I'm not close to the action. I trust they see things that I'm not seeing. Given their track record I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.

 

Tyco, Enron, AIG, etc. all had good numbers, too.  Before they collapsed.

Jeff 

 

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Posted by ERail on Wednesday, February 10, 2016 4:43 PM

Ulrich

Activist investors aren't necessarily a bad thing. CP is a much better company today thanks to Ackman, HH,  and Keith Creel. I know that some here might disagree with that, but the numbers are the numbers. 

Yeah, every situation is different.  Sometimes activists do more harm than good but other times there is a net benefit.

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Posted by Victrola1 on Wednesday, February 10, 2016 11:45 AM
  • February 10, 2016 – BB&T Capital Markets 31st Annual Transportation Services Conference at 3:45 p.m. eastern standard time in Coral Gables, Florida.

There will be live audio webcasts of Mr. Harrison's remarks. Replays of the webcast will be available in the Investor section of CP's website: www.cpr.ca  

http://www.cpr.ca/en/investors/cp-chief-executive-officer-to-address-investor-conference-february-10

News from the front via radio. 

What would Edward R. Murrow say? 

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5422698

 

 

 

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Posted by Ulrich on Thursday, February 4, 2016 10:43 AM

Activist investors aren't necessarily a bad thing. CP is a much better company today thanks to Ackman, HH,  and Keith Creel. I know that some here might disagree with that, but the numbers are the numbers.  I'm not really sold on the merger.. doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me, but then again, I'm not close to the action. I trust they see things that I'm not seeing. Given their track record I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.

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Posted by Ditchlight on Thursday, February 4, 2016 8:56 AM

but we all now live in a universe that have activist investors, you only have to look at ConAgra, Dupont, Cabela's and now NS. As I believe this merger had more to do with Pershing Square Capital Management than it does CP.

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Posted by Ulrich on Thursday, February 4, 2016 8:07 AM

If we only acted when the odds are clearly in our favor nothing of importance would ever get done. The odds are stacked against them, but I wouldn't count them out just yet.  

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Posted by CSSHEGEWISCH on Thursday, February 4, 2016 7:27 AM

I'd like to know what parallel universe that CP's management and Ackmann came from.  A regulatory process without any political factors does not exist.

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Posted by Ulrich on Thursday, February 4, 2016 7:18 AM

Probably not too many movers and shakers ride public transportation to work.

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Posted by Paul_D_North_Jr on Wednesday, February 3, 2016 8:52 PM

Wonder how many political "movers-and-shakers" ride home on CP  tracks, as compared (opposed ?) to those who use NS ? 

(Yes, including Chicago as well as Washington, D.C.)

- Paul North. 

"This Fascinating Railroad Business" (title of 1943 book by Robert Selph Henry of the AAR)
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Posted by Victrola1 on Wednesday, February 3, 2016 5:27 PM

 

Effective regulatory approval fact-based and free of political interference, CP argues in white paper 

http://www.cpr.ca/en/investors/effective-regulatory-approval-fact-based-and-free-of-political-interference

The War of White Papers latest salvo from the north. 

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Posted by Ulrich on Tuesday, February 2, 2016 1:12 PM

Well, I'm Canadian.. I've lived here for 50 years and speak both official languages fluently. Canuck is NOT a bad word.  

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Posted by tree68 on Tuesday, February 2, 2016 12:14 PM

Ulrich
Canuck is really not a derogatory term.

(Sidebar alert)  Nicknames are what you make them.  Bible scholars will recall that Judas' name was used as an insult directed at - Judas...

For a number of years in the 70's, "Okie" was embraced as a positive thing by Oklahomans.  Stickers abounded, awards were given, there was even a song.

Then they got a new governor who considered the term derogatory, and his staff went around the state capitol scraping off all the stickers, etc.  The term was persona non grata.

It's what you make it.

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There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...

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Posted by Ulrich on Tuesday, February 2, 2016 10:24 AM

Canuck is really not a derogatory term. There's a hockey team called the Vancouver Canucks, a ski team from the 70s who called themselves the Crazy Canucks, and then just about every city in Canada has a canuck something like Canuck Heating & Air Conditioning.. Canuck Roofing etc. I'm even called a canuck by my American friends occasionally and I'm not offended. It's like calling an American a yank I guess... most don't get too worked up over it.

Nationalism may very well play a hand in how the next round of mergers plays out. But its not as if Canadian Pacific is a Canadian railroad anymore. The company is owned by shareholders on both sides of the border and around the world. THE HQ may be in Canada, but the Company's top brass is American. Should a merger between NS and CP come to pass I'm sure there will be some discussion about where the new HQ should be as well as renaming the railroad. Somehow I really doubt it will have the word "Canadian" in it.  The reality is that Americans are up here in a big way, and we're going to be part of your economy in a big way.  I certainly have no qualms about selling into the United States and competing with Americans head to head on their own turf. And American companies are the same way up here.. Its open season, and the only thing that really matters is how good you are at whatever it is that you do.. your nationality or what you call yourself has nothing to do with it.

 

BC2
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Posted by BC2 on Tuesday, February 2, 2016 7:36 AM

dakotafred

 

 
GARTH STEVENSON
 
Ulrich
 
dakotafred

Today's statement by CP -- see Newswire -- sounds like Hunter is throwing in the towel. Can't say I'm sorry. While I greatly admire EHH, and it looks like NS really needs to pull up its socks -- to borrow a favorite phrase of John Kneiling's -- I don't think we want Canada poaching another U.S. railroad, to the possible advantage of Vancouver over U.S. ports and with long hauls to CP and CN rather than to UP and BNSF.

In addition, as a North Dakota resident, I can't forgive or forget all of Canada's monkey wrenching of water projects down here. (Obama's veto of XL, while stupid, for the wrong reasons, is appropriate payback.) Scroom.

 

 

 

 

If they change the name to "American Pacific" and funnel eatbound loads from Vancouver to the US east coast instead of Toronto/Montreal we should be ok though.. EHH is a red blooded American even if almost no one likes him. Maybe we need to throw in a couple of southerners into HQ  to further dilute  that canuck accent too..

 

 

 

I hope and believe that no Canadian government would ever allow that to happen. CP (or CPR as we older Canadians call it) is a national icon, something that Americans (including Harrison) don't understand. And please don't call us "Canucks". Although the word has lost some of its shock value because of Vancouver's  hockey team, it was originally a derogatory racist epithet used in reference to French speaking immigrants in New England.

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks for the history lesson, and here's one for you. Ulrich is a Canadian and can, I should think, use "canuck" in a lighthearted way if he wants to.

The point of view of most of us on here seems to be that Canada can keep its "national icon." We've got national railroad icons of our own, including NS. Remember on which side of the border this proposition originated.

 

And this is the ultimate reason the merger (takeover) will never pass regulatory approval. Just as Canada will never allow CP to fall under foreign ownership, the US will never allow such a major part of the rail infrastructure do the same. National interests and pride will kill the deal if it makes it makes it that far.

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Posted by dakotafred on Monday, February 1, 2016 8:08 PM

GARTH STEVENSON
 
Ulrich
 
dakotafred

Today's statement by CP -- see Newswire -- sounds like Hunter is throwing in the towel. Can't say I'm sorry. While I greatly admire EHH, and it looks like NS really needs to pull up its socks -- to borrow a favorite phrase of John Kneiling's -- I don't think we want Canada poaching another U.S. railroad, to the possible advantage of Vancouver over U.S. ports and with long hauls to CP and CN rather than to UP and BNSF.

In addition, as a North Dakota resident, I can't forgive or forget all of Canada's monkey wrenching of water projects down here. (Obama's veto of XL, while stupid, for the wrong reasons, is appropriate payback.) Scroom.

 

 

 

 

If they change the name to "American Pacific" and funnel eatbound loads from Vancouver to the US east coast instead of Toronto/Montreal we should be ok though.. EHH is a red blooded American even if almost no one likes him. Maybe we need to throw in a couple of southerners into HQ  to further dilute  that canuck accent too..

 

 

 

I hope and believe that no Canadian government would ever allow that to happen. CP (or CPR as we older Canadians call it) is a national icon, something that Americans (including Harrison) don't understand. And please don't call us "Canucks". Although the word has lost some of its shock value because of Vancouver's  hockey team, it was originally a derogatory racist epithet used in reference to French speaking immigrants in New England.

 

 

 

Thanks for the history lesson, and here's one for you. Ulrich is a Canadian and can, I should think, use "canuck" in a lighthearted way if he wants to.

The point of view of most of us on here seems to be that Canada can keep its "national icon." We've got national railroad icons of our own, including NS. Remember on which side of the border this proposition originated.

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Posted by GARTH STEVENSON on Monday, February 1, 2016 6:27 PM

Ulrich
 
dakotafred

Today's statement by CP -- see Newswire -- sounds like Hunter is throwing in the towel. Can't say I'm sorry. While I greatly admire EHH, and it looks like NS really needs to pull up its socks -- to borrow a favorite phrase of John Kneiling's -- I don't think we want Canada poaching another U.S. railroad, to the possible advantage of Vancouver over U.S. ports and with long hauls to CP and CN rather than to UP and BNSF.

In addition, as a North Dakota resident, I can't forgive or forget all of Canada's monkey wrenching of water projects down here. (Obama's veto of XL, while stupid, for the wrong reasons, is appropriate payback.) Scroom.

 

 

 

 

If they change the name to "American Pacific" and funnel eatbound loads from Vancouver to the US east coast instead of Toronto/Montreal we should be ok though.. EHH is a red blooded American even if almost no one likes him. Maybe we need to throw in a couple of southerners into HQ  to further dilute  that canuck accent too..

 

I hope and believe that no Canadian government would ever allow that to happen. CP (or CPR as we older Canadians call it) is a national icon, something that Americans (including Harrison) don't understand. And please don't call us "Canucks". Although the word has lost some of its shock value because of Vancouver's  hockey team, it was originally a derogatory racist epithet used in reference to French speaking immigrants in New England.

 

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Posted by carnej1 on Tuesday, January 26, 2016 11:18 AM

Victrola1

Duckworth Calls For Federal Review Of Canadian Pacific’s Proposed Hostile Takeover Of American-Owned Norfolk Southern Railway

 

Following reports that Canadian Pacific may attempt to sidestep federal law as it seeks to acquire Norfolk Southern Railway through an unsolicited merger, Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth (IL-08) today called on the federal Surface Transportation Board (STB) to thoroughly review the Canadian company’s takeover proposal to ensure it meets statutory requirements and is in the American public’s interests. Congresswoman Duckworth is the Ranking Member of the House Oversight and Government Reform Subcommittee on Transportation and Public

http://duckworth.house.gov/index.php/media-center/press-releases/793-duckworth-calls-for-federal-review-of-canadian-pacific-s-proposed-hostile-takeover-of-american-owned-norfolk-southern-railway

 

 

I'm not a fan of the merger porposal but frankly that looks like Congresssional showboating: Every aspect of this will be gone over with a microscope when/if the Federal approval process begins..

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Posted by Victrola1 on Tuesday, January 26, 2016 9:06 AM

Duckworth Calls For Federal Review Of Canadian Pacific’s Proposed Hostile Takeover Of American-Owned Norfolk Southern Railway

 

Following reports that Canadian Pacific may attempt to sidestep federal law as it seeks to acquire Norfolk Southern Railway through an unsolicited merger, Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth (IL-08) today called on the federal Surface Transportation Board (STB) to thoroughly review the Canadian company’s takeover proposal to ensure it meets statutory requirements and is in the American public’s interests. Congresswoman Duckworth is the Ranking Member of the House Oversight and Government Reform Subcommittee on Transportation and Public

http://duckworth.house.gov/index.php/media-center/press-releases/793-duckworth-calls-for-federal-review-of-canadian-pacific-s-proposed-hostile-takeover-of-american-owned-norfolk-southern-railway

 

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Posted by oltmannd on Sunday, January 24, 2016 6:34 AM

schlimm
That's not how market finance works.  Folks pay a premium over what the market says NSC is worth, and given its performance, the price has dropped a bunch.   You may not like it but that's the way it is.   And the NSC price probably won't approach what you think is fair for several years. Most investors have myopia these days, fair or not.  So much of it is determined by psychology rather than fundamentals.

Don't disagree at all.  But, all it would take is a couple of "lights out" quarters to change the perception. Stay tuned....

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

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Posted by ruderunner on Sunday, January 24, 2016 6:20 AM

schlimm

That's not how market finance works.  Folks pay a premium over what the market says NSC is worth, and given its performance, the price has dropped a bunch.   You may not like it but that's the way it is.   And the NSC price probably won't approach what you think is fair for several years. Most investors have myopia these days, fair or not.  So much of it is determined by psychology rather than fundamentals.

 

I know this thread is about NS and CP but I'd like to point out that all the class ones have basically had their teeth kicked in the last six months. I did some checking on stock prices and it seems that NS is on par with the losses the others have suffered, if not slightly smaller than the others.

So is NS really a weak sister or is it just fine in the big picture?

Modeling the Cleveland and Pittsburgh during the PennCentral era starting on the Cleveland lakefront and ending in Mingo junction

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Posted by schlimm on Saturday, January 23, 2016 4:34 PM

That's not how market finance works.  Folks pay a premium over what the market says NSC is worth, and given its performance, the price has dropped a bunch.   You may not like it but that's the way it is.   And the NSC price probably won't approach what you think is fair for several years. Most investors have myopia these days, fair or not.  So much of it is determined by psychology rather than fundamentals.

C&NW, CA&E, MILW, CGW and IC fan

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Posted by oltmannd on Saturday, January 23, 2016 4:18 PM

schlimm

Maybe they will merge, probably not.  However, I would note the high level of outrage at the proposal and the demonizing of EHH (whom I dislike) and Ackman by all those champions of free enterprise on here.   Sounds a lot like a hidden agenda, since it's really just capitalism in action.

 

It is capitalism in action.  

The problem is it's a bad deal.

If the premium was decent, say 30% over $85-90 price that NS should command (and not the latest low...)

And, the deal was mostly cash...

And/or there was a decent chance EHH could work some magic worth anywhere near what they're claiming and make it stick for a decade or two...

Then you might have something.

But none of this is true, so its a bad deal

-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/

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Posted by schlimm on Saturday, January 23, 2016 4:05 PM

Maybe they will merge, probably not.  However, I would note the high level of outrage at the proposal and the demonizing of EHH (whom I dislike) and Ackman by all those champions of free enterprise on here.   Sounds a lot like a hidden agenda, since it's really just capitalism in action.

C&NW, CA&E, MILW, CGW and IC fan

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Posted by kgbw49 on Saturday, January 23, 2016 2:37 PM

If one looks at EHH's experience in prior merger acquisitions, they have all been relatively small, regional-at-most acquisitions that when pieced together allowed him to create different route options.

We all recall that EHH was at IC when CN initiated that merger. If we look at CN's "merger family tree" since deregulation, that was the single biggest merger acquisition done by CN.

If I recall correctly, CN under EHH acquired Wisconsin Central to create a "new" CN loop around the west side of the Great Lakes, and the DM&IR and EJ&E to strengthen that loop. He acquired BC Rail as another nice regional supplier of carloads, and there were other sundry transactions along the way of smaller size.

I am thinking that all of these transactions spearheaded by EHH were classified as "minor transactions" under the former merger rules (for those in the US), and even the CN acquisiton of IC was not nearly of the scale of an acquisition as buying one of the US "Big Four" would be.

But it almost looks like the expectation of those in charge at Calgary was that buying NS would get the same reaction as when CN bought Wisconsin Central.

The relative surprise at the reaction reminds me of the surprise expressed by Target after they tried to expand into Canada and got crushed by Canadian Tire. They thought they could just show up and do everything the same as in the past and it would work out great.

Maybe CP will still pull this off somehow but it seems that resistance is definitely growing.

I am thinking that unless CP ends up partnering with either BNSF or UP to do a Conrail-style carve up of NS, the track ahead sure looks to be a stub-ended siding.

And even then, is it even the right time with railroads struggling to meet the PTC deadline? That next deadline will again come all too rapidly.

Interesting times indeed!

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