True that. But that's no fun.
In recognition of the regulatory morass that would have to be navigated, plus the end of 611 in steam once again, how about the Dismal Swamp & Moose Jaw?
kgbw49Get ready for the Norfolk & Northwestern, Norfolk, Winnipeg & Western, Norfolk & Pacific or other such name of choice.
UP didn't bother with any of that. Winner take all - CP.
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
EHH might not have a choice, and unless he plans to retire in his 80s he won't see the process through to completion at any rate. He might get it started and then pass the torch to Keith Creel. EHH has already made his mark, he doesn't need this and he knows it.
I agree with Mr. Frailey - EHH is not going to be seen as the loser again in the denoument of his epic career.
It would not be surprising to see a hostile takeover attempt if agreement cannot be reached.
Get ready for the Norfolk & Northwestern, Norfolk, Winnipeg & Western, Norfolk & Pacific or other such name of choice.
Ackman is not into railroads for anything other than the money he can extract from them, that includes CP and any other carriers that may get mentioned as a partner for CP. Typical hedge fund pump & dump.
I suspect Ackman (and his Pershing Capital) have bought all the NS stock possible without triggering SEC reporting requirments, after NS stock jumps on the basis of the 'news' he will dump most of it and make a nice profit.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
CBT I hate CP! If this atchully happens hopefully they dont derail another oil train and cause evacuations like they did in wisconsin.
I hate CP! If this atchully happens hopefully they dont derail another oil train and cause evacuations like they did in wisconsin.
In my 16 years of living near to the Milwaukee-MSP Milwaukee Road Mainline, they had no less than 4 derailments that I personally saw the aftermath of, one that ended their Milwaukee to Watertown Passenger Service a year past Amtrak takeover. I am sure there were more than that......those are just the ones I saw. Not all the derailments were the Milwaukee Roads fault, the passenger train derailed because a cement truck hit the trestle in which the train passed over a road on and knocked the track out of alignment. Another was caused by a hot box. Another dragging equipment. Forget the causes of the fourth but it was the infamous derailment that wiped out the Elm Grove, WI depot.
Whoever goes first in this next round of possible mergers will have more work to overcome all those roadblocks than any who follow. Lets say that CP and NS are serious about a merger. They would then be the pioneers in this final round, and they will be clearing the way for the others to follow at much less cost and effort. So whose smarter? Notice how others remain silent on mergers... they're smart enough to let CP do the heavy lifting on this..
Paul North, above, brings back some bad old memories. The hoops CN had to jump thru really were outrageous, given that all they asked was to run trains on existing right of way. There wasn't even any forced sale of private property, except possibly -- I don't know -- in connection with an overpass/underpass or two for the sake of other traffic.
Given NIMBYs; shippers who fancy themselves entitled to two railroads (along with trucks and sometimes pipelines and barges); and other railroads envious of what they could have done first by getting off their dead rears -- it is indeed hard to foresee any big new mergers at a price the buyer could afford.
oltmannd carnej1 I suspect that this proposal will get about as far as the late 1990's proposed merger between BNSF and CN did: http://www.eriksrailnews.com/archive/bnsfcn.html That plan would have put the two railroads under common ownership but kept their operations and identities independent (at least for the first few years) which If I understand correctly is what H. Harrison and co, are proposing to do with CN/NS. The regulators still nixed it.. The STB didn't really "nix" the deal. They just decided to rewrite the rules and told BNSF + CN to come back later once the new rules were done. It was really more of stiff-arm than a "no".
carnej1 I suspect that this proposal will get about as far as the late 1990's proposed merger between BNSF and CN did: http://www.eriksrailnews.com/archive/bnsfcn.html That plan would have put the two railroads under common ownership but kept their operations and identities independent (at least for the first few years) which If I understand correctly is what H. Harrison and co, are proposing to do with CN/NS. The regulators still nixed it..
I suspect that this proposal will get about as far as the late 1990's proposed merger between BNSF and CN did:
http://www.eriksrailnews.com/archive/bnsfcn.html
That plan would have put the two railroads under common ownership but kept their operations and identities independent (at least for the first few years) which If I understand correctly is what H. Harrison and co, are proposing to do with CN/NS. The regulators still nixed it..
The STB didn't really "nix" the deal. They just decided to rewrite the rules and told BNSF + CN to come back later once the new rules were done. It was really more of stiff-arm than a "no".
The STB used the 18 months to come up with new rules for large mergers. They soon got a good workout when CN - by then led by E. Hunter Harrison - acquired the EJ&E. The hoops that CN had to jump through were astoundingly difficult - only the very large prospective value of the EJ&E to CN as a bypass and connection in the Chicago area justified going through with it. "Never say never", but it'll be a long time and a very compelling economic case before any 2 railroads attempt to merge and run that gauntlet again.
- Paul North.
blue streak 1 cnbc really goofed up read short article and tell me what United Pacific railroad is. http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/09/norfolk-southern-canadian-pacific-shares-jump-amid-deal-report.html
cnbc really goofed up read short article and tell me what United Pacific railroad is.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/09/norfolk-southern-canadian-pacific-shares-jump-amid-deal-report.html
The only thing CNBC knows about is Shake Shack and Herbalife.
Stocks that are clearly manuipulated by insider trading, pump and dump, Bud Fox style. And offer nothing to the general population.
They arn't too sharp when it comes to something that can't be explained in basis points or put options.
-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/)
"I Often Dream of Trains"-From the Album of the Same Name by Robyn Hitchcock
Just a thought...when Norfolk & Western merged with the Southern, it took a name - Norfolk Southern - that happened to be the name of an old railroad that had existed up into the 1950's. As a New York Central fan, it would be interesting if a merged Canadian Pacific / Norfolk Southern chose the name "Canada Southern".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Southern_Railway
Although I guess "Norfolk Pacific" would be OK too, but BNSF already owns the "NP" reporting marks.
Railroads will have to show how any further mergers will benefit shippers and the economy in general. Will further mergers reduce rates and/or improve service levels? Show us how. Shippers generally have been opposed to further mergers. And unlike railroads, shippers on this continent have been struggling for years. Many of them vote and have representatives who are deadset against another merger that would reduce competition.
Per the Financial Post and CP's web site, EHH officially came on board in June 2012 with a four year agreement and an option for a fifth, which puts it to June 2017.
Born in 1944 so he would be approaching, or at, age 73 at that time.
Would 19 months from now be sufficient time to get a merger proposal through the STB?
With the flurry of activity that would set off regarding competitive-response moves, it would almost seem too short a time.
Here is one piece of conjecture, for example.
Canada will not let go of its two railroads, ever. And it is hard to see the US allowing complete foreign ownership of the whole Class 1 system.
So it is possible to foresee a result that the two Eastern roads are divided up between the two Canadian roads and the two Western roads. That would result in CN-CP in Canada and BNSF and UP west of Chicago and the Mississippi as they are now, and all four of them having large co-equal slices of the market east of the Mississippi through a combination of line purchases and shared track arrangements for each.
CP-NS would be the catalyst. But four companies would have more capital and financial horsepower to bring to the process. It would seem that something that complex would almost certainly take more than 19 months.
I think a major driving force in this is the possibility of inversion, similar to what Burger King did in forming New Red. As noted, operationally other mergers would make better sense, so there has to be a reason the markets bid the NS share price up so high on this news. It's very probably not because there is widespread enthusiasm that EHH, now 71, will be optimizing the operating ratio after the merger gets through STB approval. (This especially with Obama and probably his successor in office becoming increasingly incensed over inversions, perhaps?)
ChessieCat123Warren Buffet who wants to add value to the company nor the country as a whole.
I got news for you......Warren is in the game just for the money he could care less about adding value to anything. He just cares about return on his investment. He has made the latter statement several times in his past. Investment return are what his investments are all about.
dakotafred I wonder where MILW gets his info that Hunter Harrison is "on his last legs age-wise and won't be in the job of CEO much longer." CP hired Harrison a couple of years after CN had aged him out. There's a message in there. When Harrison retires, I suspect it will be on his schedule. I doubt the board will be in a hurry, given what he's accomplished for the company. As for mergers, I think CP's destiny continues to be KCS. KCS is not as expensive as it used to be -- shares $90 vs. $80 for NS (altho I can't tell you how many shares of either are out there) -- and, in my opinion, gives CP so much more in the way of growth potential than NS.
I wonder where MILW gets his info that Hunter Harrison is "on his last legs age-wise and won't be in the job of CEO much longer."
CP hired Harrison a couple of years after CN had aged him out. There's a message in there. When Harrison retires, I suspect it will be on his schedule. I doubt the board will be in a hurry, given what he's accomplished for the company.
As for mergers, I think CP's destiny continues to be KCS. KCS is not as expensive as it used to be -- shares $90 vs. $80 for NS (altho I can't tell you how many shares of either are out there) -- and, in my opinion, gives CP so much more in the way of growth potential than NS.
I think you need to look at a recent photo of him and come to your own conclusion. He does not look far from the grave in his recent photo. Doesn't matter what the board thinks. The Railroad CEO title does not make you immortal.
dakotafred As for mergers, I think CP's destiny continues to be KCS. KCS is not as expensive as it used to be -- shares $90 vs. $80 for NS (altho I can't tell you how many shares of either are out there) -- and, in my opinion, gives CP so much more in the way of growth potential than NS.
CPRS + KCS makes the most sense. All this other stuff is nothing more than a smokescreen. No WAY BNSF or UP sit still and let NS get gobbled up like this.
It will NEVER happen. The STB will NOT allow two Class 1 railroads to merge. It would diminish competition. Then there is the Anit-Trust division of the Justice Department.
If this happens bring me a super size plate of humble pie!!!
I believe it is a rumor to create a diversion from the bad press Bill Ackman of Hedge Fund Pershing Square is taking from his big loss in Valeant Pharmaceuticals for overpricing drugs etc. I would be suprised if it goes any further in the near future.
If this transaction gets the high ball, ultimately we may see both NS and CSX carved up between the two Canadian roads and the two Western roads in the manner that Conrail was divided between NS and CSX.
The only way this would happen is if a new Board of Directors were hired for the NS Corp, then they approved the merger.
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Firelock76 Last I heard, not going to happen.
Last I heard, not going to happen.
Remember The Sothern Pacific/Santa Fe marriage? It was such a 'done deal' in 1983 they were already painting equipment [Kodachrome scheme] to reflect the 'new' company..
Then The ICC, and Justice Dept's steped in, and it was C. Interruptus for their 'done Deal'....In 1988 the Rio Grande (DRG&W) was the successful bidder at about $1B plus for the remaions of SP. and its Corporate debt. In 1995 Santa Fe merged with BN to become Burlington Northern & Santa Fe, and later BNSF.. The following year UPRR bought SP. ( At least, I think, that is the way I remember it all)
So, is this going to move a deal where NS shops around for a better deal, such as with UP or BNSF? What of CSX? Will they then cry "woo is me, I need a buy-out too!" and go looking to BNSF and UP for an offer? Where the market matures and there is only big fish with cash, the next thing is to buy your way into ever bigger markets" Economics 101.
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