Raton Pass returns from the dead.

[BaltACD]

Does anyone know what the required overhead clearance was for Interstate bridges over railroads was when the Interstate system was originated?  What is the requirement today?

In my area some I-70 bridges were rebuilt recently over a spur that has limited freight traffic - during the period that both old and new bridges existed - it appeared that the new one was about 5 feet higher than the old.

[Dreyfusshudson]

Thanks for your two comments, also ndbprr. I understand the conundrum, but am perhaps slightly more optimistic that RR management will find a way through. I think providing there is an actual or looming crisis, railroads will invest in capacity. The projects will take a year or three to come to fruition, and chaos will increase in that period, but things will eventually get done. So, if capacity demand continues to increase, there will be a continual state of actual or near meltdown in parts of the system. But it will work. Just about. Will Mr Buffet's successors at Berkshire Hathaway grit their teeth and act more pre-emptively than Wall Street? We shall see. It seems the big RRs can invest $5B/year with current earnings without anyone complaining. The nightmare scenario is if they need say $10-$20B a year just to stay afloat in a sea of rising demand. Federal Government investment in infrastructure of any kind does not seem to be a vote winner, so this might happen.

[Dreyfusshudson]

Many Thanks- a quick check on Google Earth gave 10 in all between Albuquerque and Trinidad including 5 bridges carrying I25. Sounds like significant but not serious money to fix- you have to want to do it. Unless the builders of I 25 foresaw double stacks!

[Paul_D_North_Jr]

Yep - which becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, because without long-term investment, some essential things don't get built or done (or maybe government has to step in ?) . . .

Except for a guy named Warren Buffett who runs a company called Berkshire Hathaway, and who famously has a long-term view of things.  A very recent headline:

"Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. posted a record quarterly profit, a 41% jump tied to gains at its railroad, energy and other businesses as the U.S. economy continued its recovery." (From http://online.wsj.com/articles/berkshire-hathaway-profit-rises-1406928279?mod=yahoo_hs; emphasis added - PDN)   

Oh yeah - about that railroad: it's BNSF, which owns the subject Raton Pass line . . .  

- Paul North. 

 

[ndbprr]

Businesses used to use ten years as justification for payback. As capital got tighter it moved to five years. Now it is two years. Suggest a need 35 years into the future as critical and see how long it takes to be fired. None of the current management will be around and stockholders want results not reduction in stock value or dividends. Besides the world may not be here then.

[Paul_D_North_Jr]

Consider dealing with the grades by merely adding "More Power !", now that DPUs are practical and widely used.  Increased operating expenses, yes, but avoids the huge capital expense and time needed to build it and make it pay (kind of like the railroad's version of the oil companies' "How do we move the crude oil ?" problem - by train today, or wait for the pipeline to be built in who-knows-how-many years ?).

See also these 2 articles:

"Shorter plus steeper equals faster plus cheaper - accent is now on speed, not tonnage"

by LeMassena, Robert A., from Trains, August 1970, p. 44

(Magazine Index keywords: Line  location )

  

"Is gross ton miles per train hour valid? - is the ratio a valid indicator of efficiency?"

by LeMassena, Robert A., from Trains, April 1970, p. 37

(Magazine Index keywords: analysis  operation ) 

- Paul North.

[mudchicken]

Dreyfusshudson

. 

With respect to clearances, I don't recall that many bridges between Albuquerque and Trinidad?- tunnel apart of course. Can't speak for La Junta to Kansas City- it's dark then! 

Watrous and Canyoncito (North of Lamy)

[Dreyfusshudson]

Thanks- I missed this. Haverty of KCS believed that the Mexico coast could provide better access to some parts of the US than Los Angeles.

As a comment noted, this would mean US Dollars heading to China being reinvested in the Mexican economy. I suppose the point about Chinese money is that it's probably a lot easier to invest in infrastructure in Mexico than the US, where, I imagine  there would be strong local hence political opposition to large infrastructure projects, especially in highly populated areas.

With regard to how capacity might expand within the US, I came across a Frailey blog which says 'OUR RAILROADS ARE A MESS'. It's a huge thread and everyone seems to agree with the starting premise, but as far as I can see, despite  a lot of inputs from very knowledgeable people with expertise in railroads politics and finance, no solution emerged. No one saw a technological or political breakthrough which might help.

It seems to me that the only solution is from the Railroads themselves, providing they are earning enough to make the massive, game changing investments in capacity which may be needed. There are already examples; the BNSF's triple tracking of Cajon, the doubling of Abo Canyon and now Vaughn, and the doubling of the GN west of Minot, not to mention flood defences along the Missouri; the UP is doubling the Sunset route. NS and CSX don't seem to be following suit at the same level in terms of capacity, though they have invested to allow doublestacks.

I can see this process continuing, and I suspect plans are made, but the invest button will only be pressed when there's a crisis looming or happening, probably always too late. In todays' financial environment, it's a brave man or a fool that places big bets on future trends.

I can see expansion happening in low population areas, but anything near big cities, and most especially terminal capacity looks difficult, and that's where some novel thinking is going to be needed. 

[Dreyfusshudson]

It seems to me that any passenger service over the Pass would need to take about 15 minutes from Trinidad to Raton, to be competitive on to Albuquerque, rather than the (very enjoyable) hour at present, so even more radical engineering than I was suggesting would be required. 

With respect to clearances, I don't recall that many bridges between Albuquerque and Trinidad?- tunnel apart of course. Can't speak for La Junta to Kansas City- it's dark then! 

[samfp1943]

Note to Dreyfusshudson:

Funny you should mention it in your post [snipped] "...That means in 2035 there will be at least twice as many trains needed as today. Major conurbations may well be a railroad nightmare. Routes that avoid them might be a great idea, e.g. Mexico-El Paso to points north and west avoiding the Los Angeles basin. UP might love this. Even if the ATSF main is triple tracked east from San Bernadino,.." [snipped]

The TRAINSNewswire of this date contains the following headline: "...Proposed Mexican rail line would link El Paso area with Pacific Coast..."

By William P. Diven

Published: August 1, 2014

FTA:"...EL PASO, Texas — A joint Chinese-Mexican venture revealed this week might bring rails from the Pacific Ocean to the international border opposite Union Pacific's newly opened terminal and intermodal yard in southern New Mexico just across the state line from El Paso.

(Further from the article):"...During a trade mission to Beijing, the governors of Chihuahua and Nayarit signed contracts with the project developer China Hyway Group Limited and other investors to link a Pacific port with the U.S. border by rail, according to a report Wednesday in newspaper El Diário de Chihuahua. Work is to begin later this year, the report says, quoting Chihuahua Gov. César Duarte Jáquez.

According to the article the proposed deep water port has yet to be constructed.  

(And an additional note from the article):"...Left out of the trade mission and apparently cut out of the deal is Ferromex, Mexico's largest railroad, whose trains already traverse a roughly 1,000-mile route from Nayarit to Juárez. Its Guadalajara-Nogales line connects to Cíudad Chihuahua via the Copper Canyon route through the Sierra Madre. From there it's a straight shot north across the desert to Juárez and interchange with the BNSF Railway and UP in El Paso..."

Additional information is available at the TRAINSNewswire 

The article mentiones no time frame for its start.. To construct and dredge a deep water port will be very time consuming. The there will be the political interplay. The majors are Ferromex, Union Pacific (Fm's largest stock holder) and then BNSF, and KCS de M.  Not to mention the inter mural politics of Mexico and the USA... Should provide a lot of interesting interplay, before the first train rolls... And THEN.. Who'll build the power? 

[Los Angeles Rams Guy]

I'm a big supporter of the Raton Pass route as it really is the key link for future passenger rail service from Denver south and westward.  In the freight world, the problem with Raton isn't the grades.  Rather, it's the bridges that won't allow clearance for double-stack trains.  Get those modified and then you have something. 

I personally never have understood why BNSF has never initiated intermodal service between Southern California and Denver when predecessor ATSF did it and did it quite well. 

 

[Dreyfusshudson]

Like many fans, I love the ride on the ATSF route from Trinidad to Albuquerque. It is a great sadness that the BNSF no longer sends freight this way, preferring an extra 300 miles via Amarillo. That’s what they think of the Raton Pass route. Its days seem numbered. Not much of an ‘ace in the hole’ as an ATSF president once described it. Conventional wisdom has it that a) no railroad in its right mind would run trains over 3+% grades b) if you want more capacity, you invest in expanding your preferred route, not rehabilitating less attractive secondary ones and c) there’s no traffic from Denver south and west that can’t be handled on other routes, and no intermediate traffic. So Raton Pass is worthless. Hard to argue with this. What could change? The great thing about the future is no one can foresee it. Who knows what the world will be like in 20 years’ time? Let us suppose that the US economy grows by about 3% a year (quite poor historically) and that railroad traffic increases at the same rate, possibly more because of Interstate congestion. That means in 2035 there will be at least twice as many trains needed as today. Major conurbations may well be a railroad nightmare. Routes that avoid them might be a great idea, e.g. Mexico-El Paso to points north and west avoiding the Los Angeles basin. UP might love this. Even if the ATSF main is triple tracked east from San Bernadino, as Rose hinted, it might be out of capacity in places. So, points b) and c) above begin to lose their power. But what about a)? Surely 3+% grades are a killer? Well, what you might want to do is consider what investment might be needed to remove the 3+% grades. These run for about 10 miles only at the top of the pass. The only way to eliminate them is to tunnel. By my reckoning, you only need a 2.5 mile tunnel to keep grades at less than 2.2%- which is what the ATSF routes from the Pacific already have. You would need a few extra miles of new right of way. The most ambitious plan might be a new route starting about 2.5 miles south of Raton, and heading up Dillon Canyon for about 10 miles. (Looks like there used to be a ROW some way up here?), a two and a half mile tunnel down at 1.2% on to Gallinas Parkway and a further 3 miles at 2.2% down get you back onto the old route. All that underused capacity from Trinidad to Newton back in play. With capital budgets measured in billions per annum, this is not that expensive surely? The new track around the pass would surely cost little more than the second track in Abo Canyon. Railroad tunnels are not cheap, and are unfamiliar railroad projects in the US, but building them is common outside the US. 2.5 miles is a tiddler. You need to deal with Glorieta eastbound as well, but whilst the ruling grade from Chico to Glorieta is 3%, the average is only 2.5%, so maybe this is not too hard. Here’s my timeline: 2018. President Clinton abandons Amtrak long distance trains. 2020. Someone in Fort Worth suggests reopening the mothballed Raton route and gets fired. 2025. An ‘experimental’ three trains each way per day are initiated to relieve capacity through Amarillo. Some upgrading is done. 2030. Things are pretty desperate, and more traffic is heading this way. 2035. Proposal to build a diversion accepted. 2036 Warbonnet paint scheme revived. 2038. Project completed, and double tracking to Kansas City underway. Conclusion: Better start the environmental review process now. Fantasy? Quite probably. But some serious questions all the same a) Did the ATSF ever consider flattening Raton? (I have half a recollection that in the early 1950s there was talk of using nuclear devices to remove inconvenient mountains, including Raton, and there was an idea to extend the Cimarron valley line to avoid Raton altogether) b) What would the cost be of rehabilitating from Belen to Newton via Raton, vs. yet another main track via Amarillo- each one gets more expensive, I would have thought? c) If traffic does double in twenty years, how will the railroad network change, and where will terminal capacity be found? Apologies if I haven't been paying attention and these topics have been done to death already.