The futurists tell us that, in five years, we will be able to buy automobiles that will drive themselves. There are already prototypes out there and California has enacted a law permitting driverless cars on their highways. I have not heard about any driverless trucks yet, but if we can have driverless cars, driverless trucks are probably on the horizon also. Driverless trucks would cost much less to operate than conventional trucks because of the labor savings.
Here are my questions; What will driverless trucks do to intermodal railroading? Will the economics still favor trains despite the labor savings? Will driverless trucks take all the business away from the railroads? Will the railroads introduce crewless trains to compete? Will the railroads be allowed to have totally crewless trains carrying hazardous materials especially in light of the Lac Magantic wreck?
Those of you who like to play “what if” please weigh in.
Thanks,
George
Driverless cars and trucks as well as crewless trains are still a long way off. There's an interesting article in this month's Popular Mechanics about cars that are able to steer themselves on the highway. The article mentions the year 2018 as the date that this feature might become available in cars. The article goes on to mention that even this type of automated steering is a long way off from total automation.
Hopefully we will learn for the aviation industry. Autopilot as well as other advancements have taken a lot of the skill out of flying, and pilots are no longer as skilled as they once were. My neighbour is a captain for Air Canada. He states that although he is considered a pilot he is in actual fact no more than an onboard technician. He doesn't fly the plane any longer.. even the takeoff and landing is pretty much automated in modern aircraft.
As our vehicles become smarter we will become more dependent on them, and we will become worse drivers. I'm in the trucking business. I now come across experienced drivers who cannot drive anything with a manual transmission. That would have been unheard of even five years ago. And now, with GPS, we get people who couldn't read a map if their lives depended on it. There's definitely a downside to automation and smart vehicles.
I hate to be superficial about a serious topic, but somehow the entire notion of driverless trucks brings memories of Dennis Weaver in the movie "Dual." I think that was the finest made for TV movie ever and fascinating portions are to be found on YouTube. There is almost a truck cult about the vehicle used in that film.
Dave Nelson
I had a friend that owned a driverless car. It was parked in her garage when the battery exploded, so she attempted to push it out onto the street. What can go wrong, I ask? The car got on the driveway incline and really started to roll, and with her sandwiched in between the open door and the car body. My wife got there to see two feet sticking out from under the car, which was sideways on the street, smashed into another car parked there. Generally unhurt, she looked kinds weird with that tire mark across her shoulder. "What if" all cars were like that?
We are a very long way from fully automated "driverless" vehicles which share the road with conventional ("drivered" if you will) trucks and cars, the technology may be developing but the liability issues are unresolved and unlikely to be anytime soon...
It's the same reason that unmanned freight trains are not likely in the near-to-mid future, the grade crossing liability issue is unresolved...
"I Often Dream of Trains"-From the Album of the Same Name by Robyn Hitchcock
carnej1 It's the same reason that unmanned freight trains are not likely in the near-to-mid future, the grade crossing liability issue is unresolved..
Grade crossings are 100% moot. No number of crewmen in the cab will stop a train fro some dope in the grade crossing. If there will be a "crewman" on such trains it will simply be as a sop to the public.
My trains (in HO scale) are fully automated, making all station stops without any inputs from the tower. As tower operator, I give them the green signal at 242nd Street and they are 100% on their own until they get back 21 minutes later. They will stop at Dyckman Street, and I'll will have to give them a line up into 242nd Street.
All automatic, and NO COMPUTERS: 100% analog operation.
LOOK, IF I CAN DO IT< THEN IT CAN BE DONE IN ANY SCALE.
ROAR
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Here there be cats. LIONS with CAMERAS
Ulrich, your comments on aviation remind me of the crash of the French plane in the Atlantic a few years ago. As I recall, there was something mentioned about the speed sensors icing up, and I'm wondering if lack of seat-of-the-pants experience by the crew might have been a factor.
Think, too, about how helpless many of us are when our cellphone battery runs out. We don't remember phone numbers any more.
Regarding driverless cars and driver proficiency, we may not be risking too much. I notice many drivers today seem to be unable to parallel park, and on our old downtown streets with two lanes of traffic and cars parked on both sides, frequently drivers will wait in a gap until both lanes are clear so they can proceed down the middle of the street. They don't know the width of their own vehicle. On the other hand, thinking of driverless cars, last spring we were driving southbound in Arkansas knowing full well that we would stay on that highway all the way to I-20 in Louisiana, when in the middle of farmland the GPS suddenly said, "800 yards, turn right.", then "200 yards, turn right.", then "Turn right, turn right." It then re-synced, and all was back to normal. There needs to be so much contingency planning that I don't see it happening very soon.
_____________
"A stranger's just a friend you ain't met yet." --- Dave Gardner
Ulrich Hopefully we will learn for the aviation industry. Autopilot as well as other advancements have taken a lot of the skill out of flying, and pilots are no longer as skilled as they once were. My neighbour is a captain for Air Canada. He states that although he is considered a pilot he is in actual fact no more than an onboard technician. He doesn't fly the plane any longer.. even the takeoff and landing is pretty much automated in modern aircraft.
True to a degree, but pilots are still required to retain airmanship skills so they can take over when the computer fails. That was a major factor in the recent Asiana crash.
Regarding self driving cars and trucks, I think that will be a long time coming. It would take infrastructure and technology to achieve such an end. Self controlled anything works best in a closed environment.
Norm
@Broadwaylion: Your HO system is protected from random acts of stupidity by humans driving cars, trespassing on the ROW and dropping dishwashers on the tracks. Get yerself a small feline and a couple of mice and turn'em loose on your layout. I rather doubt if your automation will handle it. Human controllers USUALLY handle the random unexpected events gracefully and avert some catastrophes that an automated system would just plow right on through without so much as a howdy-do.
Semper Vaporo
Pkgs.
dknelson I hate to be superficial about a serious topic, but somehow the entire notion of driverless trucks brings memories of Dennis Weaver in the movie "Dual." I think that was the finest made for TV movie ever and fascinating portions are to be found on YouTube. There is almost a truck cult about the vehicle used in that film. Dave Nelson
The Peterbilt salesman here even says that sales of Peterbilt trucks spiked when Dual came out. That sounds a bit dubious to me, but who knows! I liked the film too... my dream is to own a 1950s Pete with a Detroit engine. Someday!
Norm48327 Ulrich Hopefully we will learn for the aviation industry. Autopilot as well as other advancements have taken a lot of the skill out of flying, and pilots are no longer as skilled as they once were. My neighbour is a captain for Air Canada. He states that although he is considered a pilot he is in actual fact no more than an onboard technician. He doesn't fly the plane any longer.. even the takeoff and landing is pretty much automated in modern aircraft. True to a degree, but pilots are still required to retain airmanship skills so they can take over when the computer fails. That was a major factor in the recent Asiana crash.
And a major factor in a couple of other crashes too. The crash in Buffalo back in 09, for example, was in large part due to the pilots not being able to recover from a stall. Replacing skill with automation may come at a cost.
Whether pilots are as skilled as they once were is unknown. Today commercial pilots must pass a check ride every six months. Most check rides are given in simulators, where the demands can be much greater than was the case when proficiency rides were given in real airplanes. If the candidate crashes the simulator, it can be reprogrammed and put back in business. If a real airplane crashes it is not easy to put it back together.
At least at Southwest Airlines, where I have several pilot acquaintances, landings and take-offs are flown manually. Where the autopilot pays off is in normal flying. It does a better job than most pilots. Disclosure: I hold every type of air and ground license issued by the FAA. I was an instructor pilot for more than 20 years. I still retain my interest in aviation albeit from row 38.
I doubt we will every see driver less cars, trucks, etc. But we will see computer controlled vehicles that will improve traffic flow and reduce the probability of accidents. This strikes me as a potential winner.
What impact automation of alternate modes of transport will have on the railroads remains to be seen. My guess is the railroads will adjust to it if given the freedom to do so.
Norm48327 Ulrich Hopefully we will learn for the aviation industry. Autopilot as well as other advancements have taken a lot of the skill out of flying, and pilots are no longer as skilled as they once were. My neighbour is a captain for Air Canada. He states that although he is considered a pilot he is in actual fact no more than an onboard technician. He doesn't fly the plane any longer.. even the takeoff and landing is pretty much automated in modern aircraft. True to a degree, but pilots are still required to retain airmanship skills so they can take over when the computer fails. That was a major factor in the recent Asiana crash. Regarding self driving cars and trucks, I think that will be a long time coming. It would take infrastructure and technology to achieve such an end. Self controlled anything works best in a closed environment.
Couple of points. Norm ask your pilot friend if he has ever heard the story regarding some of the "Glass Cockpits" in the newer(then) aircraft.
. Some years back among some acquaintances in the pilot business. There was a story circulating, referencing the then new, 'glass cockpits' which required three in the cockpit. Each one with their own job specialization. "...The Pilot whose job it was to program the aircraft computers with the necessary flight data. The co-pilot, whose job was to make sure the ';Catering was ordered, and correct'.Third position was a very large dog;..whose job it was to sit between the two; if either man was to touch the controls while the plane was powered up..The dog was to bite the offending party.." The later point being that a computer is accurate only when correct data is input. And change within that scope is limited to data programed, and limited to change already included in the software
IMHO the driverless care is in itself a scary prospect. Probably it will be an inevitable innovation, but frightening in the hands of many individuals; who might want to practice their abilit to make random selections while moving.
As example the Crash in Ottawa, Canada this date. A double decker bus was piloted through automatic highway/grade crossing Protections and into the side of a moving train which was already moving in the crosssing. A professional making a bad decision? Who knows. The incident monday in Washington,D.C. of a single man killing 12 people with a shotgun and pistols...(Current motivations are unknown).
Driverless Trucks- Dear Lord ! I hope not! The though is just too scary to think about; at this point. That statement about individual drivers in automobiles, and trucks making their own "Random Selections" drives that personal fear.
Our roads are supposedly built (or rebuilt) to a level of Highway Standards, set by engineering and Professionals in that Buisiness. In a large percentage of cases that might be true, but in ,what I suspect is nearly an equal number of cases,, there is little, or no level of compliuance.. Even "GOOGLE" in their fleet of 'driverless, mapping vehicles', has the need, at times, to include a human, on-board for navigational issues.
Call me a Luddite, but I hope this innovation is a long way down The Roads.
Lots of driverless trucks around already... they are generally parked against the owner's fence because he/she can't find qualified drivers.
Ulrich Lots of driverless trucks around already... they are generally parked against the owner's fence because he/she can't find qualified drivers.
Feel your pain, ULRICH!
And the situation does not seem to be getting any better...ON either side of "The Line!"
Seems more and more that our industry is changing, And TOFC, is apparently, more and more of an answer.
Definitely, one way to keep the new breed of drive home on week-ends; while constantly,"Through the house! Seems as if the Company Recruiters are sure aiming at the 'low hanging fruit."
Many of those' new' to the trucking game, have not learned that 'when the wheels ain't turning you ain't earning"....
Not too much pain so far... have been lucky to some extent I guess.
Random acts of cats, mice, cars or nuts are quite a moot point as far as grade crossings are concerned. No train operator can stop a train in time to prevent a tragedy. Just today a bus and a train went to conclusions in Ontario. What could the operators do?
Watch the SubChat forum, not four days goes by but what there is another report of a 12-9 on the subway.
12-9 is a radio call for "passenger under train". Usually they jump there just before the train comes in, sometimes they are pushed, sometimes they have a medical issue, and sometimes they are just lost drunks. Some survive, most do not. All of those trains are operated by a train operator. (Well not the (L) train, that *is* automated) but the randoms are equally squished.
NYCT is an Equal Squish railroad.
ERGO: 1) my cats do not *LIKE* coming into the house, let alone up to the train room, 2) No NYCT subway has any grade crossings and still can kill 80 people per year, and 3) Automation *IS* coming, and we will be just fine.
Also see Ontario... The train *was* manned...
Probably 45 years ago, GM built a new test track at their Michigan proving grounds. Perfectly round, it's a mile and a half in diameter.
The bottom two lanes (IIRC) had guidance wires laid into the concrete. When paired with a sensor on the front of the vehicle, a car (or theoretically a truck) could run around the track ad infinitum (or until it ran out of fuel).
Such a technology applied in today's world could add GPS and satellite comms for managing a vehicle, but would require the infrastructure (a wire laid into a lane) to be installed anywhere it was to be used.
It might even be desirable to establish restricted lanes (or build same) for the "unmanned" traffic.
Unless there was a method for circumventing/bypassing slow or stopped traffic, however, one failure (breakdown) would tie up everything until the problem was resolved. Given the recent description of I-81 as being "owned" by trucks, the magnitude of such a failure can be appreciated.
And, as has been suggested, that doesn't deal with stuff like deer running into the road (very common on I-81 in NY and PA).
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
Paul of Covington Ulrich, your comments on aviation remind me of the crash of the French plane in the Atlantic a few years ago. As I recall, there was something mentioned about the speed sensors icing up, and I'm wondering if lack of seat-of-the-pants experience by the crew might have been a factor. Think, too, about how helpless many of us are when our cellphone battery runs out. We don't remember phone numbers any more. Regarding driverless cars and driver proficiency, we may not be risking too much. I notice many drivers today seem to be unable to parallel park, and on our old downtown streets with two lanes of traffic and cars parked on both sides, frequently drivers will wait in a gap until both lanes are clear so they can proceed down the middle of the street. They don't know the width of their own vehicle. On the other hand, thinking of driverless cars, last spring we were driving southbound in Arkansas knowing full well that we would stay on that highway all the way to I-20 in Louisiana, when in the middle of farmland the GPS suddenly said, "800 yards, turn right.", then "200 yards, turn right.", then "Turn right, turn right." It then re-synced, and all was back to normal. There needs to be so much contingency planning that I don't see it happening very soon.
LOL, It must have believed I-49 was completed in Louisiana
Trust me we can't wait for that stretch to become a backroad as we drive on the new interstate.
"The true sign of intelligence is not knowledge but imagination."-Albert Einstein
http://gearedsteam.blogspot.com/
@ Geared Steam
"Ulrich, your comments on aviation remind me of the crash of the French plane in the Atlantic a few years ago. As I recall, there was something mentioned about the speed sensors icing up, and I'm wondering if lack of seat-of-the-pants experience by the crew might have been a factor."
The final French BEA (equivalent of our NTSB) report indicated that was indeed the case. When the pito tubes (sensors for airspeed indication) iced over the computers, sensing improper airspeed commanded the airplane to climb. The result was an aerodynamic stall that the pilots couldn't recover from. They had become so used to the automation they couldn't control the plane under those conditions.
I saw the Mayday episode of that one, Norman. Lack of seat of the pants flying skills was indeed identified as the problem. Any rookie pilot trained in the old days would have been able to recognize a stall by feel and sensation and take corrective action.
Paul of Covington Ulrich, your comments on aviation remind me of the crash of the French plane in the Atlantic a few years ago. As I recall, there was something mentioned about the speed sensors icing up, and I'm wondering if lack of seat-of-the-pants experience by the crew might have been a factor.
I happened to be reading that transcript just a few nights ago. It's prime evidence of what can go wrong on a modern airliner when it's suddenly the pilots and their skill and judgement that has to handle the plane instead of relying on the avionics to automatically fly the plane. They were completely lost and befuddled the moment they weren't getting accurate air speed and even when that problem shortly afterwards resolved itself when ice cleared off the sensor, their inability to understand the situation resulted in them crashing a fully operational airliner into the ocean still not understanding what they were doing wrong.
I'd love to know why the individual that was in control most of that time kept insisting on trying to climb that day, bleeding off air speed. And the whole crew ignoring stall warnings for a couple of minutes until they finally hit the ocean with the same guy still pulling back on the stick right until the end despite not having control of the plane at that point.
Paul of CovingtonOn the other hand, thinking of driverless cars, last spring we were driving southbound in Arkansas knowing full well that we would stay on that highway all the way to I-20 in Louisiana, when in the middle of farmland the GPS suddenly said, "800 yards, turn right.", then "200 yards, turn right.", then "Turn right, turn right." It then re-synced, and all was back to normal. There needs to be so much contingency planning that I don't see it happening very soon.
And what's amazing is that there are individuals that when faced with that situation, would have followed those directions until they or their vehicle was incapacitated.
I've never owned a GPS and have no desire to own one instead of finding my own way, but that people have driven into the ocean, down railroad tracks, and so on just because their GPS told them to just boggles the mind.
BroadwayLion Random acts of cats, mice, cars or nuts are quite a moot point as far as grade crossings are concerned. No train operator can stop a train in time to prevent a tragedy. Just today a bus and a train went to conclusions in Ontario. What could the operators do?
They can lessen the impact, some impacts could be avoided, they can alert emergency responders, vehicles with survivors have sometimes been dragged for thousands of feet before a train in emergency stops, etc.
BroadwayLionNo train operator can stop a train in time to prevent a tragedy
Happens more than you think. But the news doesn't usually report "Today a train didn't hit a car!"
It's been fun. But it isn't much fun anymore. Signing off for now.
The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer, any other railroad, company, or person.t fun any
BroadwayLion carnej1 It's the same reason that unmanned freight trains are not likely in the near-to-mid future, the grade crossing liability issue is unresolved.. Grade crossings are 100% moot. No number of crewmen in the cab will stop a train fro some dope in the grade crossing. If there will be a "crewman" on such trains it will simply be as a sop to the public. My trains (in HO scale) are fully automated, making all station stops without any inputs from the tower. As tower operator, I give them the green signal at 242nd Street and they are 100% on their own until they get back 21 minutes later. They will stop at Dyckman Street, and I'll will have to give them a line up into 242nd Street. All automatic, and NO COMPUTERS: 100% analog operation. LOOK, IF I CAN DO IT< THEN IT CAN BE DONE IN ANY SCALE. ROAR
To test whether or not your system would work in the real world, introduce a cat into your running layout.
Dave
Lackawanna Route of the Phoebe Snow
Driverless trucks rolling down the highway are probably 50 years off, at least, and even then the economics may not make them viable. Sure, you would save the expense of having drivers, but there's also a cost to having much more sophisticated technology. At present some carriers are even balking at switching to automated transmissions as they are $2500.00 to $4000.00 per copy more expensive than your basic manual transmission. And have you ever heard of a manual transmission breaking down? The simple manual gearbox is probably one of the most reliable components in a truck. Same can't be said for the computerized automated gearbox.
The Railroad industries insurance carriers would not agree with you that grade crossings are moot.
If you re-read my post I clearly stated that fully automated railroad operations are not only technically possible but have existed in some places for decades (mainly isolated heavy haul (ore,coal) operations and on some transit systems). The liability issue is real and can't be dismissed by a hand wave.
I do have a feeling the coming of Positive Train Control systems may lead to one man operations sooner rather than later on many lines. Some of the professional railroaders on these forums have explained why that may not be such a great thing...
One person crews took a hit with the Lac Megantic accident. Many are wondering if two people on board would have prevented this. Maybe not, but it has opened up the debate.
Ulrich One person crews took a hit with the Lac Megantic accident. Many are wondering if two people on board would have prevented this. Maybe not, but it has opened up the debate.
An automated train with no crew would not have caused an accident like this, because it would not have to be parked overnight... Just keep on running.
See the "Goofs" webpage there for several interesting railroad-related items from the grade crossing scene.
- Paul North.
BroadwayLion Ulrich One person crews took a hit with the Lac Megantic accident. Many are wondering if two people on board would have prevented this. Maybe not, but it has opened up the debate. An automated train with no crew would not have caused an accident like this, because it would not have to be parked overnight... Just keep on running.
Use your imagination a bit. What makes you think that just because a train is automated that it would never runaway, never spend time parked out on the line or in a siding, etc?
Like people keep telling you with your proof of concept model railroad in your bedroom, introduce some variables into the system and watch your model railroad fail to react to those conditions.
That's the value of the human element and why automated systems largely have only existed in closed systems so far like a subway, a coal mine to power plant line without grade crossings and with identically sized trains, etc. Where there are lots of variables, the human operator remains very valuable and will be for decades to come.
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