Hobby dying I think not!

[Anonymous]

What does Thomas mean about the model train hobby .............nothing!

[on30francisco]

A little off-topic but what Ne06874 mentioned brings back a lot of good memories. I remember the displays that Higbee's had in their store on Public Square around Christmas. They were beautiful and would further encourage my interests in model railroading.

[on30francisco]

I believe the hobby isn't dying but is much more diverse than it was in the past. There are a lot more magazines that cater to SIGs than there was in the past and the internet has a slew of information on both mainstream and special interest niches in the hobby than is possible in regular print publications - and it's all for free. Because a lot of sites are run by hobbiests who have a genuine interest in what they're doing, they are more than willing to share their information to help others. The internet also enables small cottage industries that sell specialized products - products you wont find in Walthers, most LHSs, or mainstream publications - to advertise and enable us with special interests to order directly via online. Although it's important to support your LHSs, if they don't stock what you want, have no information or interest in what you want, or sell at MSRP or higher, the internet is a very useful and economical way of obtaining your needs.

[UNIONPACIFIC4018]

Hmm well here is something I hadn't thought of till now.... maybe the magazines are slowing because there is so much demand for RTR trains. Seems lots of the older magazines featured lots of how-tos and lots of modelers depended on that info to create their layouts. Now with so much available that makes it easy and quick I think waiting on that info seems moot but the internet is a factor as well. I am impressed with the latest releases of steam engines and diesels but I really have no need for sound in trains. I usually can run 3 trains at the same time and with all three of those locos chugging tooting and what not seems like too much racket to really enjoy...usually I just have one of my grandpa's old steam lp's playing lightly for background filler. I really dont like RTR or prebuilt stuff I like kits and have tried to scratchbuild a few items and will continue that way.

[jecorbett]

One of the advantages of growing old is that you see things come around again and again. Take for instance gas prices. All through the 1960s, gasoline was cheap and so Americans fell in love with big gas guzzling cars. The result was demand outpaced supply so in the 1970s, gas prices started to skyrocket. So Americans began trading in the gas guzzlers for high mileage econo-boxes. Demand for gasoline fell and prices went flat for almost 20 years. By the 1990s, Americans again started falling in love with the big cars, this time in the form of SUVs. Demand shot up as did gas prices. Go figure.

What's this got to do with model railroading. Only that rising gas prices reduce disposable income meaning less money for hobbies like model railroading which could give the impression that interest is dying. The real point is that these sort of trends tend to repeat themselves in a cylical economy. I had my first HO layout as a boy in the early 1960s but like a lot of kids, other interests took over. I got back into the hobby in the late 1970s and I can remember the same kind of hand wringing about the future of the hobby even then. This was at the beginning of the video game boom and there was speculation that this was going to kill model railroading. Guess what. It didn't happen. Not then and not now. Model railroading is and always has been a niche market. It's not something that interests everybody. But once you get the bug, you're hooked. Certainly there are not a lot of young kids getting into the hobby but I'd bet it has always been that way. Trust me. Model railroading isn't going away. I've seen this movie before.

[One Track Mind]

I might also add that several times over the last few years, some of my customers in here - as you may have also - have noted that there are (has been) about 3 or 4 too many magazines going after the same market. People have commented that they have wondered who would be the first to go.

We all see some of the exact same stuff in different magazines. Not only is there a limited amount of consumer spending, and a limited amount of ad money...but there also is a limited amount of contributors.

IMO, this doesn't have as much to do with the hobby dying, as it does with simple economics.

[selector]

Fine Scale Railroader is ending its run in January.

In reply to this line of comment over the past several posts, I believe that this may be a reflection of a savvy and responsive set of currently healthy suppliers/manufacturers who know what the modern hobbiest wants.  In early times when models required a lot of tinkering and modification to make them look and run well, particularly for the craftsman, these magazines were an important conduit for information and tips.  Now, with so much quality RTR stuff that needs much less craftsmanship to get it to look prototypical, there is less demand for the this type of publication.  Very very few of us build our own locos and rolling stock.  Modern kits of all kinds relevant to MRR are truly superb.  So these publications have had their day. 

My opinion.

[NeO6874]

I'm kinda focusing on the RTR v. kit/scratchbuilt argument (seems it's a big factor for the hobby dying)

I think we're just about in the middle of a "revolution" in the hobby - ie it has its high spots, and then it's low spots... IMO, right now is when my parents' generation ( about 45-50) will be at the point of being able to re-join the hobby, and my generation (about 20-25) is just about to be in the "get christmas train" and "get the kid(s) thomas stuff" phase (with a little "get my own stuff" thrown in there too).  While RTR is big right now, it may fade as both my parents generation, and my generation get deeper into MRRing and start to realize that the RTR stuff only gets them so far...

Granted, I have less time spent in this hobby than most (if not all) of the people here, but in my limited (I'm 20) experience - EVERYTHING has some form of a cycle associated with it... I mean, think about any commercials for dolls/hot wheels/legos/etc.... you'll see commercials for them for about 18 months or so, and then they disappear for 2-5 years.

Just a shot in the dark, but maybe this hobby needs more exposure - like the displays that I hear used to be in department stores like Higbees for Christmas(well, maybe something not that big, but you get the idea).

[slotracer]

The slot car guys and the model car building guys ask the same threads too all too often.....nothing new here.

I don't see much youth getting into anything requiring them to entertain themselves, tehy want to be entertained (Electonic stuff)....adults in general are impatient these days and want instat gratification....tough social trends to overcome but it is what it is.

 

[BillyDee53]

Fine Scale Railroader is ending its run in January.

[One Track Mind]

We ought to have a seperate forum called "Model Railroading is Dying" since we can't stop yaking about it!

...

Sign me up!!
Enjoy
Paul

May I volunteer to be the moderator for this separate forum???

[IRONROOSTER]

We ought to have a seperate forum called "Model Railroading is Dying" since we can't stop yaking about it!

...

Sign me up!!
Enjoy
Paul

[simon1966]

We are a little bit like dogs-chasing-our-tails when this subject comes up. We are all rather passionate about our hobby and don't want to see its demise. The small snippets of information like publications folding, circulation numbers dropping, and an ever increasing array of new products do not paint a clear picture. Many of us have theories about what is happening, but it is really down to each individuals interpretation of the tea leaves.

I do believe that the hobby is very strong today. I look at large companies involved with the field (Walthers and Horizon) and see that they are confident enough to invest quite heavily in acquisitions of business that serve the hobby.

I also look at initiatives like The World's Greatest Hobby and see that industry leaders have an eye on the future and are trying to counter potentially negative trends that they have been observing.

This is very similar to other craft based hobbies that I referenced above.

Of course I don't really know, it is just my opinion garnered from these observations.

[jfugate]

Model Railroad News (MRN) is an example of a publication that fills a clear niche and isn't ambiguous in purpose like Mainline Modeler (MM) and Model Railroading (MRR) were.

MM and MRR were "me too" publications with very little content that was distinctive and unique. MRN's content, on the other hand, demonstrates clearly it's a hobby news rag, and isn't yet another "me too" hobby publication. That MRN fills a unique niche bodes well for its continued publication for many years to come, IMO.

[Dave Vollmer]

We ought to have a seperate forum called "Model Railroading is Dying" since we can't stop yaking about it!

Nothing's dying.  I may be the eternal optimist, but I believe the hobby is getting better.  When I had my layout at the show I had dozens, and dozens of people come up to me who weren't in the hobby but had been inspired by our layouts to start.  If each one of us recruits just one hobbiest to replace us, the hobby will experience zero shrinkage.  I have faith that at least one of my two sons will take up the hobby, and that doesn't count any of the folks from any of the shows I've displayed my layouts at who might also have been inspired to join.

[Anonymous]

There is a lot of conflicting evidence. With 2 MRR printed publications going out of business in the past couple of weeks, (Mainline Modeller and Model Railroading) with at least one publisher claiming the shrinking of the hobby due to lack of new blood being the reason.

{snip}

What about Model Railroad News? I haven't seen anyone mention it, but it seems to be holding its own... I took them up on their 3 free issues thing earlier this year, and can't quite decide whether to subscribe or not, but am leaning toward doing so. It's a little product-review heavy for my taste, but they have some good layout visits, how-to articles, columns and such.

[jfugate]

There is a lot of conflicting evidence. With 2 MRR printed publications going out of business in the past couple of weeks, (Mainline Modeller and Model Railroading) with at least one publisher claiming the shrinking of the hobby due to lack of new blood being the reason.

The failure of two hobby magazines could indicate the hobby is shrinking, but it can also indicate something else -- people don't get their hobby information from print publications as much any more. It can also be a strong indication there is major market shift going on -- and I think that is the more likely explanation for their loss of business.

I also think Model Railroading  (MRR) and to a large degree Mainline Modeler (MM) were two magazines that had an ambiguous focus, which contributed to their demise. The rise of the internet means you had darn well better be filling a strong need with your niche, otherwise being a "me too" print publication just isn't distinctive enough to keep you afloat.

The rise of cheap desktop publishing is what allowed these small-time hobby magazines to appear on the scene and to have a decent run. But alas the technology changed again out from under them with the internet and they didn't read the handwriting on the wall.

(As a side note, Railroad Model Craftsman (RMC) continues to remain true to the "craftsman" in their name and print a lot of kitbashing and more craftsman type articles than Model Railroader, so I think RMC will continue to do well for many years to come.)

However, the rise of the internet is changing the whole publications business and in another 10-15 years the internet will be in almost every home just like the telephone. I also envision "pay upon demand" subscriptions online where you get a "monthly issue" that's chocked full of articles specifically of interest to you. It will cost far less than a print magazine and be completely relevant to you from cover to cover. Why pay twice as much for *maybe* one or two articles you can use when you can pay half as much and get a half-dozen or more articles of great interest to you?

The other thing with the internet is it allows even niche hobbies to flourish like never before (just look at the new life that's been given to the slot car hobby by the internet, allowing far-flung hobbists to connect up). This means even if Model Railroading shrinks somewhat, it will overall be healthier than ever, thanks to the internet.

[jecorbett]

There is a lot of conflicting evidence. With 2 MRR printed publications going out of business in the past couple of weeks, (Mainline Modeller and Model Railroading) with at least one publisher claiming the shrinking of the hobby due to lack of new blood being the reason.

The failure of two publications is not an indicator of the overall health of the hobby. In every business there are going to be winners and losers. Those publications apparently were not capturing enough market share to stay in business. I think I subscribed to Model Railroading for about a year but that was a long time ago and sampled just a few issues of Mainline Modeler. I don't have any data but my guess is that MR and RMC are the two industry leaders. I subscribe to MR and buy RMC when I see something interesting and will probably start subscribing to RMC again now that retirement is allowing me to spend more time in the hobby. When one of those two giants goes belly up, then I will start to worry.

[Midnight Railroader]

Go read the Mainline Modeler magazine thread and think again!

When was the last time you heard a businessman say, "Well, we did our best but the competition was just better and they beat us"?

Never.

It is always the market's fault, or worse, the consumer's fault for not "supporting" the business that's going under, no matter what industry.

Model railroading's no different in that regard.

[C&O Fan]

Well, in that case it up to you guys who have (grand)kids to get them interested in trains so that, even if they move on to cars/girls/whatever, they may come back in the future - probably with the help that mass-marketing will provide (ie Lionel for Christmas Tree, or something like that).  And its the job of those who are in HS/college to (when we have kids) get them involved (again, through mass market Lionels or Thomas or something).

While mass-marketing might not the the 'silver-bullet' to get this hobby back to where people remember it, its a start.  I mean, I was in a LHS a few weeks ago (maybe a month or so), and as I was looking for the stuff I needed to get a project done, someone came in with his kid - he asked the clerk if they sold motors as the one he had wasn't working anymore... The clerk seemed pretty helpful, but wasn't able to get him the motor (I think he told him to look it up through walthers or athearn or soemthing).  The clerk did show the customer their selection of (running) used locos (which weren't that bad price-wise), saying it would probably be easier geting one of those running for the time being, as remotoring old equipment can get to be a headache...

I don't know if he actually bought anything, but I'm willing to bet that if he didn't his son was asking him constantly when they were going to get a train...

Well i'm trying to do my part by getting my son involved when he was 12.

we joined a modular club and had lots of fun till he hit 16 then it was cars computers and girls

I even set the speed control down to 30% on my zephyr to let my grandsons run trains at the risk of

hearing them say "Grandpa your Locos are Sick"

They feel sorry for me because i don't have an X box which they would much rather play with ! 

[whywaites]

There is a lot of conflicting evidence. With 2 MRR printed publications going out of business in the past couple of weeks, (Mainline Modeller and Model Railroading) with at least one publisher claiming the shrinking of the hobby due to lack of new blood being the reason.

A similar thing happened here in the UK during the 80's we lost a few publications but now we have 3 others that have replaced them. Model Railroader magazine seems to be doing OK as you can get at various news stand outlets with a UK cover price, so sales must be good enough for them to do that.

[simon1966]

There is a lot of conflicting evidence. With 2 MRR printed publications going out of business in the past couple of weeks, (Mainline Modeller and Model Railroading) with at least one publisher claiming the shrinking of the hobby due to lack of new blood being the reason.

[Pruitt]

Go read the Mainline Modeler magazine thread and think again!

[Midnight Railroader]

To me the best indicator of the health of the hobby is the number of times a desired item must be back ordered. It is a rare occurence when I do most of my non-railroading online shopping but happens frequently when I try to order model railroading items. I have had this happen with locos as well as structures. It happens when I try to order from an e-tailer, a phone in retailer like Trainworld, and even when I try to order direct from Walthers. Supply it seems can't keep up with demand. If the business wasn't healthy, we would be seeing inventories building up. We are seeing just the opposite. Model railroading is alive and well.

I iwsh that were true, but your analysis assumes manufacturers are trying to meet the demand.

In this case, they aren't. They'll produce whatever size run they want, and that's it. The "supply" is 10,000 or 25,000 units...and no more. If they sell out, great. If not, it doesn't matter.

Now, if, say, Athearn announced an RTR run of  a certain roadname's F7's--which are not limited run--and you couldn't get one because of demand, that would validate your theory.

[grayfox1119]

Guys it is obvious to me that "many" retailers are going out of business, not just some of the LHS.
For model Railroading hobby:

First you have to look at the customer base..Who are they", what age groups make up the largest portion?

The younger group has too many areas in which the need for money is more demanding. Why are so many young families today all dual income? Because they want a new home, new cars, sometimes a second home, then the kids are into all kinds of sports and other activities. Then, we have schools loading the kids up with homework, after all, if they don't, the parents will think we are not earning our salaries, and besides, we have to consider Global competition in education, our kids have to keep up. Bottom line.....there goes all the time and the money for hobbies like MRR'g except for a small percentage of American familes when you consider we have just over 300,000,000 people not counting the illegals.

So where is the market? It is primarely those over 50, and this markets is definetly growing? How do we know? Because many of the baby boomers are now over 50, and the number will continue to grow until the year 2014 when the last of the baby boom generation turns 50. And just how big is this baby boom number? According to the figures in the paper it is 74 million people!!

So, lets ask ourselves, how many of these 74 million retirees are going to take up Model Railroading as a hobby?

Is the hobby dying? I don't think so, not at all, as some famous person once said, " you ain't seen nothing yet baby".

[CNJ831]

The future of the hobby may will be in bringing in new modelers in their 50's and 60's who have the time, space, and money.  Their children are launched, careers are winding down or they're already retired.  That's the group from which to recruit new members.

In my case, even though I have been in the hobby for 35 years, I had a long period of relative dormancy while the kids were growing up.  Once I hit my 50's, my hobby activity picked up along with available funds and space.

Enjoy
Paul

Paul, I not only agree, but don't even think that's the "future" so much as the past, present AND future.

Heck, go out and get a copy of Model Railroader from the decade of your choice - preferably a couple different decades. Read it, and examine the age of the owner/builder of the feature layouts. Read the letters and look for clues as to the age of the correspondents, things like "after my kids moved out" or "when I worked in ____"... I think this hobby has long been the domain of empty-nesters, retirees or at least folks far enough along in life to have some good disposable income. I guarantee that you won't find any issue of Model Railroader from any decade suggesting that the hobby is driven by the youth. There's the occasional dedicated teenager or 20-something around, sure, and we applaud them highly. Rick of Rix products built an impressive layout by the time he was 30-ish, but that's the exception.

No, I'm afraid it's not true. It's just that your statement is relevant to the post-1980's MR era, when the hobby had already begun to age dramatically. If you'll look at issues of MR from the 1940's, 50's, 60's, even into the 70's, you'll find that a great many of the authors were men of 30-something or younger. To be sure, there were older modelers too but they didn't dominate as today. A number of well known hobbyists today started contributing to MR in their late teens and early 20's during the 1950's, Earl Smallshaw being a perfect example. As to the hobby's make-up in general not having changed over the years, guess again! Based on their own published figures, the average age of an MR reader was reported as 32/33 from the 1940's until the mid 1970's. Likewise, in 1956 MR claimed that 1 in every 5 of its readers was a teen! Do you really think that those figures haven't changed drastically over the years? In fact, today the median age figure has almost doubled and there is virtually no teen element left at all!

CNJ831

 

[jacon12]

We're always wondering what the kids are doing and most of us know that computers, the internet (myspace.com for one) and video games seem to have a lock on a good proportion of them.  Then tonight on tv there's a short segment on the new Playstation 3 console coming out.  Why... it's only $600 and God knows what each game for it sells for.. and the line of people waiting to buy one went out the door, down the street and around the block and some had been in the line for over a week.  A WEEK!... sleeping in tents on the sidewalk.

I'm not sure I'd camp out in front of Walther's for a day waiting for the newest Proto 2000 to go on sale.  Well, it would depend on just how realistic the sound was, level of detail, how smooth she ran... yada yada yada..  

Jarrell

[One Track Mind]

kchronister! That is excellent! Nearly exactly what I was planning to post!

And I might add, for those that are worried, some train shops are NOT dying. Some trends are reversing. I don't have time to go into all of it tonight, but there are some promising, positive things going on and some speculative ideas that point toward hobby shops surviving and on-line shopping, and most definately eBay shopping, on the decrease. You read it here first.

Yep, no matter how many times it gets posted, I will be waiting to answer that model railroading is not dying, and neither are hobby shops. The opinions expressed on this forum are slightly skewed, remember.

 

[Anonymous]

The future of the hobby may will be in bringing in new modelers in their 50's and 60's who have the time, space, and money.  Their children are launched, careers are winding down or they're already retired.  That's the group from which to recruit new members.

In my case, even though I have been in the hobby for 35 years, I had a long period of relative dormancy while the kids were growing up.  Once I hit my 50's, my hobby activity picked up along with available funds and space.

Enjoy
Paul

Paul, I not only agree, but don't even think that's the "future" so much as the past, present AND future.

Heck, go out and get a copy of Model Railroader from the decade of your choice - preferably a couple different decades. Read it, and examine the age of the owner/builder of the feature layouts. Read the letters and look for clues as to the age of the correspondents, things like "after my kids moved out" or "when I worked in ____"... I think this hobby has long been the domain of empty-nesters, retirees or at least folks far enough along in life to have some good disposable income. I guarantee that you won't find any issue of Model Railroader from any decade suggesting that the hobby is driven by the youth. There's the occasional dedicated teenager or 20-something around, sure, and we applaud them highly. Rick of Rix products built an impressive layout by the time he was 30-ish, but that's the exception.

Did the magazine used to have a column called "student fare" that they dropped? Absolutely, it fits right in with the pattern of 'returning to the hobby later on in life' that I've seen in my own family and circle of friends for multiple generations. The pattern of how young people "get into" the hobby there also looks a lot to me like "back to the future"... I had a Tyco box-set as a kid on a 4x8 sheet with green sawdust paper. I left off messing with it about the time I noticed girls, and totally dumped it once I could drive. I didn't reapproach the hobby until my 30's...

My father had Lionels as a kid, dropped them in high school, and came back to the hobby only when I started into my childhood trains. My uncle inherited Dad's trains, and followed the same path, but never got back into it.

Every single model railroader I know has similar sequence of events. They might be in their 30's-70's (and I'm sure beyond, but that's just my group), but they all had trains as kids, dropped them about the time their hormones kicked in, and returned to it after establishing homes, careers and families. And you know what... My kids have a 'toy' train set, my neighbors kids have toy train sets. I can't think of any family I know with kids who doesn't at minimum have an O- or G-scale setup they break out at Christmas. 

And sure "kids these days just want video games."... Frankly, my kids just want computers and the Internet, and considering how critical use of those is to success in today's world, I'm all about that... (Plus when they're a little older, they'll be able to get into JMRI source code and make it do everything I want!). Guess what? They still LOVE trains.

So what? It's just history repeating itself... When I was a kid it was "kids these days just want that fancy new Pong game." When my father was young, he remembers my grandfather railing that TV and BB Guns were destroying the youth... At some point, my great grandfather probably predicted the demise of mankind due to 78 RPM records... I take the whole "kids these days..." line with a HUGE grain of salt. Hell, cavemen probably complained that kids these days were spoiled and ruined by their new flint-chip-embedded clubs instead of using a good old fashioned log to club food to death...

I look forward to repeating this soapbox rant 30 or 40 years from now too.

[CNJ831]

To me the best indicator of the health of the hobby is the number of times a desired item must be back ordered. It is a rare occurence when I do most of my non-railroading online shopping but happens frequently when I try to order model railroading items. I have had this happen with locos as well as structures. It happens when I try to order from an e-tailer, a phone in retailer like Trainworld, and even when I try to order direct from Walthers. Supply it seems can't keep up with demand. If the business wasn't healthy, we would be seeing inventories building up. We are seeing just the opposite. Model railroading is alive and well.

I'm afraid all this speaks to is how limited the runs of given items are today...not to any excessive demand. The typical runs of most items are in the few thousands today, at best, as compared to the tens of thousand in the days of yore. Selection is wider only because production is far more limited. Likewise, you are also seeing the advent of hords of wouldbe/fly-by-night eBay "stores" buying up a dozen or two of a paticular item at a time for re-sale...items that formerly would have been available for  purchase through regular channels.

CNJ831