QUOTE: Originally posted by rolleiman QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831 I certainly can't speak for the arts & crafts situation where you live but here on the East Coast those stores are doing a landoffice business and their customer base are women in their 30's and 40's...not blue-haired old ladies. We have a number of such stores in my area and they are continuously filled with customers. LHS are always empty (we used to have six MRR shops in my area...we are now down to one and he plans to downsize) . CNJ831 Now you know as well as anyone here that the reason for disappearing MRR shops is not ONLY declining local interest.. Just as this future of the hobby BS comes up often so does the LHS vs Internet / Mailorder/Ebay threads.. Will the hobby die? Time will tell. You've repeatedly given the year time frame it's likely to happen.
QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831 I certainly can't speak for the arts & crafts situation where you live but here on the East Coast those stores are doing a landoffice business and their customer base are women in their 30's and 40's...not blue-haired old ladies. We have a number of such stores in my area and they are continuously filled with customers. LHS are always empty (we used to have six MRR shops in my area...we are now down to one and he plans to downsize) . CNJ831
QUOTE: go back through some of the past threads on this subject. Last summer we had a discussion that went on for pages. Therein I presented 10 points based on published figures available for anyone who wished to to verify them as to how the hobby was slipping downhill over the past 20 years.
Don - Specializing in layout DC->DCC conversions
Modeling C&O transition era and steel industries There's Nothing Like Big Steam!
QUOTE: Originally posted by dave9999 Alright, this is getting boring... There was a topic awhile back entitled something like "Who Buys These Expensive Locos?" As I read the thread, I thought "I do". Trust me when I say that I'm far from rich... but what some of the people thought were outrageous prices for a locomotive, seemed reasonable to me. Some were saying things such as "I would never pay $300 for a locomotive." But, I have several $300 locomotives. Again, it's a matter of perception. So, for you to say that people who have money are not serious is not very objective. And also notice, I said "people who spend their hard earned money"
QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831 And I'm afraid it's the Pollyannas that have the poor grasp on reality. No matter how many times this particular subject surfaces, I'm afraid it is those who feel the hobby's future is very bright who never...ever...offer a single shread of verifiable evidence that will demonstrate their point of view. It always becomes at matter of: I can't acknowledge your statistics; I won't accept the idea; well...not in my opinion; a guy at the LHS said...; there's got to be an alternate explanation to your every point...I just have no idea what it might be...but...but..! If the outlook was great, then someone would be able to counter each point with published figures we could all see for ourselves. To date, that's never happened even once.
QUOTE: ]Originally posted by dave0000 As for the Pollyannas not providing evidence... where is the evidence in favor of the naysayers?
QUOTE: ]Originally posted by dave9999 How many folks do you know, personally, that are into crafts? Yet we have two huge craft stores and a crafts department in every one of our six Walmarts here in Pensacola. Again, there are enough people buying the merchandise to keep the business going.
QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831 Are you kidding? I am personally acquainted with a great many and I'd be willing to bet that people into arts and crafts outnumber model railroaders 100:1 - if not far more! Arts and crafts is a huge business today. I go into these stores regularly and they are always jammed...I go into the LHS and odds are I'm the only customer![V] CNJ831
QUOTE: ]Originally posted by dave9999 No, actually I wasn't kidding... maybe you know more blue haired old ladies than I do. Maybe I don't know a lot of arts and crafts people. But, your 100:1 ratio of blue haired old ladies to model railroaders is yet another unsubstantiated statistic... unless of course you have visited every crafts store and every train store in the country, did a head count, and compared the two. And then, I guess you did research into the profit and loss of the two industries. Then, I suppose you polled the customer base as to their spending habits at each? I know it sounds like I'm being a real smarta** and in a way I am. It's not directed at you, but to try and prove a point. Anyone can post a statistic and I say that 99.9% are bogus.[:)] And bogus statistics just get everyone up in arms about the "poor and failing" hobby that we all enjoy. When I walk in to my LHS and see empty shelves, or can't find a single online dealer, then I'll worry. [/i] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (Sorry folks, I can seem to separate the folliwing from the previously quoted paragraph by Dave999) I certainly can't speak for the arts & crafts situation where you live but here on the East Coast those stores are doing a landoffice business and their customer base are women in their 30's and 40's...not blue-haired old ladies. We have a number of such stores in my area and they are continuously filled with customers. LHS are always empty (we used to have six MRR shops in my area...we are now down to one and he plans to downsize) . I don't believe it is the aim of most of the naysayers to get other hobbyists up in arms. It is far more a matter of trying to educate and inform them. Most hobbyists, in my experience, haven't a clue regarding the hows and whys of the hobby's getting where it is today. Nor do they understand who is in it and largely why. Many seem to think that because they are hobbyists, things must be flourishing and have an endless future ahead of them. The so-called naysayers simply are attempting to put things in their proper perspective. Believe me, no one loves and enjoys the hobby more than I do but that doesn't cause me to close my eyes to reality. CNJ831 Reply selector Member sinceFebruary 2005 From: Vancouver Island, BC 23,330 posts Posted by selector on Monday, January 23, 2006 12:43 AM QUOTE: Originally posted by Student of Big Sky Blue QUOTE: Originally posted by NeO6874 Personally, I have been away from the hobby for too long, with having moved in High school, and now college. But what is bringing me back now is the memories of spending an entire afternoon watching the train run around its figure-8 oval for hours on end (actually, it was a raised fig-8, with a bridge so the train passed over the lower track), and going to other family member's houses, and seeing their trains during the holidays. Though the box of old MR magazines falling on me might've done something about it too..... [8D] I can sympathise with participating in the hobby while in school. When I was in college My model railroading slowed to a tricle In the 4 years I I went to school I got three projects done in that time. (However managed to start like another 7) However I keep plugging away. And something always seems on the verge of materialization. Im hoping that if I am patient eneugh it will. QUOTE: Originally posted by selector Saddle-making....now THERE'S a dying hobby! Who makes saddles, anyway? No one rides horses any more...do they? Well all the cattle ranchers would be glad to know their primary means of conveyance have suddenly become obsolete. Anyone else know how to herd cattle effectivly on a long cattle drive. I have seen ATVs used effectivly. But they alas have limited range. I was being facetious...but you knew that.[:D] -Crandell Reply Anonymous Member sinceApril 2003 305,205 posts Posted by Anonymous on Sunday, January 22, 2006 11:49 PM QUOTE: Originally posted by NeO6874 Personally, I have been away from the hobby for too long, with having moved in High school, and now college. But what is bringing me back now is the memories of spending an entire afternoon watching the train run around its figure-8 oval for hours on end (actually, it was a raised fig-8, with a bridge so the train passed over the lower track), and going to other family member's houses, and seeing their trains during the holidays. Though the box of old MR magazines falling on me might've done something about it too..... [8D] I can sympathise with participating in the hobby while in school. When I was in college My model railroading slowed to a tricle In the 4 years I I went to school I got three projects done in that time. (However managed to start like another 7) However I keep plugging away. And something always seems on the verge of materialization. Im hoping that if I am patient eneugh it will. QUOTE: Originally posted by selector Saddle-making....now THERE'S a dying hobby! Who makes saddles, anyway? No one rides horses any more...do they? Well all the cattle ranchers would be glad to know their primary means of conveyance have suddenly become obsolete. Anyone else know how to herd cattle effectivly on a long cattle drive. I have seen ATVs used effectivly. But they alas have limited range. Reply Edit AntonioFP45 Member sinceDecember 2003 From: Good ol' USA 9,642 posts Posted by AntonioFP45 on Sunday, January 22, 2006 11:34 PM 1. Highly detailed plastic models in HO and N are available that are a big "cut above" over what was available years back. 2. Walthers Cornerstone, DPM and competitor's easy to assemble kits help give us beautifully detailed layout scenes in a short time. Many are very affordable. 3. DCC is here to stay and is finally become affordable for the average modeler! Incredible lighting effects possible at a low cost as well. 4. Sound is here to stay! No longer a "short term gimmick" as many thought back in 2002. Sound recently become more affordable. Choices among competition have increased. 5. RTR makes it easy for the working modeler with limited time on his hands. 6. Model Railroad Forums are great sources of support, help, and encouragement. Also helps the hobby grow. Some of you say the hobby is dying???? Maybe certain aspects of it, such as scratchbuilding will become less common, but based on the above.....this hobby is going to be around until the end. "I like my Pullman Standards & Budds in Stainless Steel flavors, thank you!" Reply jecorbett Member sinceNovember 2005 From: Utica, OH 4,000 posts Posted by jecorbett on Sunday, January 22, 2006 10:53 PM Based on what I see at my LHS, business is as strong as ever. Of course it varies with the season but I have seen no drop off customers in the 25+ years it has been at it's current location, despite increased competition from sources like e-bay and internet suppliers. Their shelves are always well stocked and if they weren't moving the merchandise, I doubt they would be staying in business for very long. As for those lamenting increased use of RTR equipment and preassembled structures, I don't see that as a problem. Anything that allows us to complete our layouts more quickly can't be a bad thing. You can still scratchbuild or kitbash if that suits you but If I can pay a few extra dollars and just drop a structure on to the layout with just a little weathering rather than spending 3 or 4 evenings painting and assembling it, I'm all for that. The creativity for me comes in how combine the various elements of my layout, not necessarily creating something from scratch. Reply PennsyHoosier Member sinceOctober 2004 From: Northern Indiana 1,000 posts Posted by PennsyHoosier on Sunday, January 22, 2006 10:01 PM In the grand scheme of things, model railroading hasn't been around that long--but then, neither have hobbies generally either. "8 hours for what we will" made hobbies more doable 50 years ago. Now, I work about 70-80 hours per week. Do I really want to paint one car and then clean the airbrush? Nah, I think I'll go post on modelrailroader.com--less time involved. Still, I love my trains. With the advent of DCC and the continuing improvement of locos and rolling stock (even though they cost $$$$), the hobby will survive. Unless that comet hits us... Lawrence, The Pennsy Hoosier Reply selector Member sinceFebruary 2005 From: Vancouver Island, BC 23,330 posts Posted by selector on Sunday, January 22, 2006 9:37 PM Saddle-making....now THERE'S a dying hobby! Who makes saddles, anyway? No one rides horses any more...do they? And stamp collecting? Give me a break! Do we have to stamp our emails? That is the only way that hobby will survive. Reply NeO6874 Member sinceJanuary 2006 From: Northeast OH 2,268 posts Posted by NeO6874 on Sunday, January 22, 2006 9:05 PM QUOTE: Originally posted by Student of Big Sky Blue QUOTE: Originally posted by BigRusty Lots of interesting opinions. Think about this. The last steam engines disappeared from sight about fifty years ago. No one under fifty ever saw one run through his town. Passenger services ended about forty years ago. No one under forty ever saw a passenger train, or rode on one, with the exception of a few Amtrak and commuter routes. In the late fifties I built my son an elaborate AF 6 x 12 foot layout. He never became a model railroader. None of my four male grandchildren were given train sets. They are computer whizzes in their twenties now. A large percentage of respondents to polls shows that they are modeling the"transition period" when both steam and diesels shared the rails for a few years. Who are these people? Like me they are old enough to have lived through that era. And I'm almost eighty years old. It is therefore primarily a nostalgia thing. When we are dead and gone, where are the model railroaders going to come from? That leaves a few fifty year olds who are fascinated with Amtrak and the few freight railroads that exist in business. A lot of the rails have been torn up long ago. Where is the nostalgia in a Rails to Trails ROW? The baby boomer generation, including my two kids, are into ACTIVE endeavors, such as golf, hiking, you name it. They want to be doers not spectators. Where is the hobby going, slowly but surely down hill, until a relatively few hobbyists won't be able to support the remaining manufacturers. In other words they are in the running board and buggy whip business. Time marches on. Since I am only 23 years old. If Model railroading really does go toes up. Looks like I get to buy stuff cheap. James woo hoo! me too! BigRusty - I'm not even 20 yet, and I am completely fascinated with things i've never lived through (Steam locos to be precise). When i can afford it, I will model some part of the later steam era (pre transition i hope), as i find the diesel power to be rather... ugly. I agree that the hobby is faltering somewhat, but i think it is more because of social factors than anything, including (but not limited to) "less free time", getting made fun of, and the instant gratification ideal. I say this, because I've seen older examples of the hobby, specifically a hardbound book of advertisements for the American Flyer stuff from the 1950s (i think the book covers 1952-1958). while a lot of it might be marketing hype, a good number of the pictures that had people in them were a man and his son working on the layout together. Now, however you don't see that - either the dad is "too busy" with work, and life, and all concerns of the household to spend time working on a layout OR the kid is a slave to technology and the instant gratification effect of it. I think the best solution to this "problem" (even though i don't believe there IS a problem) is get kids hooked on it as young as possible - get the shining time station videos (if they're made still...) for them, take them on the Thomas the Tank engine days a scenic railroad might have, take them to train shows, etc. Seeing the trains will embed the images in their minds, almost like TV ads and suchso to consumers. Personally, I have been away from the hobby for too long, with having moved in High school, and now college. But what is bringing me back now is the memories of spending an entire afternoon watching the train run around its figure-8 oval for hours on end (actually, it was a raised fig-8, with a bridge so the train passed over the lower track), and going to other family member's houses, and seeing their trains during the holidays. Though the box of old MR magazines falling on me might've done something about it too..... [8D] -Dan Builder of Bowser steam! Railimages Site Reply dave9999 Member sinceJune 2003 From: Along the Murphy Branch 1,410 posts Posted by dave9999 on Sunday, January 22, 2006 8:09 PM Alright, this is getting boring... QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831 QUOTE: Originally posted by dave9999 ... if someone is spending their hard earned money, they are serious. Again, that's just my opinion. No, Dave, that is what's called a valuable customer. The person can be a complete twit but have the money to spend on whatever they want. The richer they are, the more likely it is to be just a whim they are spending hard cash on. There's a big difference between that and someone serious about a particular project, subject, or purchase. Agreed. people with lots of money can be twits. But, without any made up statistics, I believe most model railroaders are "regular" folks. I'm sure that there are many rich modelers, but they probably make up a small percentage. You see, like the term "serious", the term "rich' also is perceived differently by different people. There was a topic awhile back entitled something like "Who Buys These Expensive Locos?" As I read the thread, I thought "I do". Trust me when I say that I'm far from rich... but what some of the people thought were outrageous prices for a locomotive, seemed reasonable to me. Some were saying things such as "I would never pay $300 for a locomotive." But, I have several $300 locomotives. Again, it's a matter of perception. So, for you to say that people who have money are not serious is not very objective. And also notice, I said "people who spend their hard earned money" QUOTE: Originally posted by dave9999 I do believe that there are more than enough people spending money to keep the hobby going. Have you picked up a Walther's catalog lately? I seriously doubt that many products would be available if no one was buying them. So, this "sky is falling" thing that comes up fairly often really doesn't hold water. I think it's just folks with too much time on their hands... and a poor grasp on reality. QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831 There's a lot of smoke and mirrors related to the Walthers catalog. At any given time, it's been said that around 50% of their listed products are unavailable/backordered. This complaint has been going on for years and just about everybody is familiar with.. And I'm afraid it's the Pollyannas that have the poor grasp on reality. No matter how many times this particular subject surfaces, I'm afraid it is those who feel the hobby's future is very bright who never...ever...offer a single shread of verifiable evidence that will demonstrate their point of view. It always becomes at matter of: I can't acknowledge your statistics; I won't accept the idea; well...not in my opinion; a guy at the LHS said...; there's got to be an alternate explanation to your every point...I just have no idea what it might be...but...but..! If the outlook was great, then someone would be able to counter each point with published figures we could all see for ourselves. To date, that's never happened even once. You say it's been said that 50% of Walthers products are unavailable/backordered... I'm sure that this is another substantiated statistic! Right? Regardless, 50% of the catalog is a lot of products for a dying hobby, don't you think? As for the Pollyannas not providing evidence... where is the evidence in favor of the naysayers? And for the record, I don't fit either catagory. I believe the state of the hobby is on a pretty even plain. . QUOTE: ]Originally posted by dave9999 How many folks do you know, personally, that are into crafts? Yet we have two huge craft stores and a crafts department in every one of our six Walmarts here in Pensacola. Again, there are enough people buying the merchandise to keep the business going. QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831 Are you kidding? I am personally acquainted with a great many and I'd be willing to bet that people into arts and crafts outnumber model railroaders 100:1 - if not far more! Arts and crafts is a huge business today. I go into these stores regularly and they are always jammed...I go into the LHS and odds are I'm the only customer![V] CNJ831 No, actually I wasn't kidding... maybe you know more blue haired old ladies than I do. Maybe I don't know a lot of arts and crafts people. But, your 100:1 ratio of blue haired old ladies to model railroaders is yet another unsubstantiated statistic... unless of course you have visited every crafts store and every train store in the country, did a head count, and compared the two. And then, I guess you did research into the profit and loss of the two industries. Then, I suppose you polled the customer base as to their spending habits at each? I know it sounds like I'm being a real smarta** and in a way I am. It's not directed at you, but to try and prove a point. Anyone can post a statistic and I say that 99.9% are bogus.[:)] And bogus statistics just get everyone up in arms about the "poor and failing" hobby that we all enjoy. When I walk in to my LHS and see empty shelves, or can't find a single online dealer, then I'll worry. Good luck, Dave GO GATORS !! Old layout http://photobucket.com/albums/v491/davegator/ New layout http://smg.photobucket.com/albums/v491/davegator/New%20Layout%20Building/ Reply Anonymous Member sinceApril 2003 305,205 posts Posted by Anonymous on Sunday, January 22, 2006 8:08 PM QUOTE: Originally posted by edkowal Yes, you are all correct, the hobby is doomed. As a matter of fact the hobby of model railoading will cease to exist this coming February 18, so get those projects completed before the hobby dies. And anybody who has subscriptions to magazines that go past that date, well sorry, but no refunds. -Ed So model railroading expires on my birthday? That sucks. [:(] Most people my age are devoted to a lot of technology; computers, game consoles, etc. A lot of people play games way too much, sometimes I can get hooked on for several hours and not know it. Some people make models on computers. But I rather have one in my own hands. I love building models. Railroading is not the only hobby being threatned. Model kits aren't as popular as about 30 years ago. From what I see, most older people have a good job, own a house and car, and already settled down with a family. They can spend more time and money devoted to a certain hobby. I have friends who sees my 1/87 scale stuff as "toys." I always tell them they are not toys!!! Right now I am in college and I have a part time job. I am just collecting some trains right now as displays. No layout or anything right now. Although I wish I had brought my controller and a circular track and just run my trains around my room. If more people joined the hobby, I can see the prices of the models go down. But the prices are high for me right now. Also I would see when model railroading would go nearly extinct is when oil runs out or the price of oil sky rocket when oil becomes rare. Remember most plastic is a product of oil. [:0] Metal trains would come back again when they were popular before the age of plastics. Reply Edit Anonymous Member sinceApril 2003 305,205 posts Posted by Anonymous on Sunday, January 22, 2006 7:08 PM QUOTE: Originally posted by alexander13 The reason kids aren't coming into the hobby is because trains aren't "cool" with kids. there are kids who have mocked me for having trains. however there is a quite healthy teen railfan place in another trains.com forum. I suffered through such taunting my self. But time has proved that those who have taunted me ended up having a large measure of hate and discontent in their lives that in large part I have been able to avoid due to the fact that was not out terroizong the town and safely in my parents basement playing with trains. James Reply Edit Anonymous Member sinceApril 2003 305,205 posts Posted by Anonymous on Sunday, January 22, 2006 7:03 PM The reason kids aren't coming into the hobby is because trains aren't "cool" with kids. there are kids who have mocked me for having trains. however there is a quite healthy teen railfan place in another trains.com forum. Reply Edit edkowal Member sinceOctober 2003 From: Buffalo NY USA 452 posts Posted by edkowal on Sunday, January 22, 2006 6:06 PM QUOTE: Originally posted by BigRusty ...No one under fifty ever saw one run through his town. Passenger services ended about forty years ago. No one under forty ever saw a passenger train, or rode on one, with the exception of a few Amtrak and commuter routes. ... Who are these people? Like me they are old enough to have lived through that era. And I'm almost eighty years old. It is therefore primarily a nostalgia thing. When we are dead and gone, where are the model railroaders going to come from? While this is a credible viewpoint, I suspect that my case is also common. I model a steam prototype that I never saw operate as a common carrier. The prototypes that I am interested in were all abandoned by the middle 1930's, whereas I was born in 1950. They operated in a location that I have been able to visit once in my life, so far. Some of the prototypes I am developing an interest in operated on another continent, separated from me by an ocean. I never saw steam operate in revenue service, yet I find steam engines much more interesting, both visually and aurally. I'm interested in the architectural modeling, the technological history, and the "play and enjoyment" value of model railroading. I am not trying to recreate some lost time of my youth, when railroads were important to me and my family. It's not that type of nostalgia, because I was never there. -Ed Five out of four people have trouble with fractions. -AnonymousThree may keep a secret, if two of them are dead. -Benjamin Franklin "You don't have to be Jeeves to love butlers, but it helps." (Followers of Levi's Real Jewish Rye will get this one) -Ed K "A potted watch never boils." -Ed Kowal If it's not fun, why do it ? -Ben & Jerry Reply Anonymous Member sinceApril 2003 305,205 posts Posted by Anonymous on Sunday, January 22, 2006 5:47 PM QUOTE: Originally posted by BigRusty Lots of interesting opinions. Think about this. The last steam engines disappeared from sight about fifty years ago. No one under fifty ever saw one run through his town. Passenger services ended about forty years ago. No one under forty ever saw a passenger train, or rode on one, with the exception of a few Amtrak and commuter routes. In the late fifties I built my son an elaborate AF 6 x 12 foot layout. He never became a model railroader. None of my four male grandchildren were given train sets. They are computer whizzes in their twenties now. A large percentage of respondents to polls shows that they are modeling the"transition period" when both steam and diesels shared the rails for a few years. Who are these people? Like me they are old enough to have lived through that era. And I'm almost eighty years old. It is therefore primarily a nostalgia thing. When we are dead and gone, where are the model railroaders going to come from? That leaves a few fifty year olds who are fascinated with Amtrak and the few freight railroads that exist in business. A lot of the rails have been torn up long ago. Where is the nostalgia in a Rails to Trails ROW? The baby boomer generation, including my two kids, are into ACTIVE endeavors, such as golf, hiking, you name it. They want to be doers not spectators. Where is the hobby going, slowly but surely down hill, until a relatively few hobbyists won't be able to support the remaining manufacturers. In other words they are in the running board and buggy whip business. Time marches on. Since I am only 23 years old. If Model railroading really does go toes up. Looks like I get to buy stuff cheap. James Reply Edit BigRusty Member sinceMarch 2003 From: Scottsdale, AZ 723 posts Posted by BigRusty on Sunday, January 22, 2006 4:33 PM Lots of interesting opinions. Think about this. The last steam engines disappeared from sight about fifty years ago. No one under fifty ever saw one run through his town. Passenger services ended about forty years ago. No one under forty ever saw a passenger train, or rode on one, with the exception of a few Amtrak and commuter routes. In the late fifties I built my son an elaborate AF 6 x 12 foot layout. He never became a model railroader. None of my four male grandchildren were given train sets. They are computer whizzes in their twenties now. A large percentage of respondents to polls shows that they are modeling the"transition period" when both steam and diesels shared the rails for a few years. Who are these people? Like me they are old enough to have lived through that era. And I'm almost eighty years old. It is therefore primarily a nostalgia thing. When we are dead and gone, where are the model railroaders going to come from? That leaves a few fifty year olds who are fascinated with Amtrak and the few freight railroads that exist in business. A lot of the rails have been torn up long ago. Where is the nostalgia in a Rails to Trails ROW? The baby boomer generation, including my two kids, are into ACTIVE endeavors, such as golf, hiking, you name it. They want to be doers not spectators. Where is the hobby going, slowly but surely down hill, until a relatively few hobbyists won't be able to support the remaining manufacturers. In other words they are in the running board and buggy whip business. Time marches on. Modeling the New Haven Railroad in the transition era Reply CNJ831 Member sinceApril 2001 From: US 3,150 posts Posted by CNJ831 on Sunday, January 22, 2006 3:54 PM QUOTE: Originally posted by dave9999 ... if someone is spending their hard earned money, they are serious. Again, that's just my opinion. No, Dave, that is what's called a valuable customer. The person can be a complete twit but have the money to spend on whatever they want. The richer they are, the more likely it is to be just a whim they are spending hard cash on. There's a big difference between that and someone serious about a particular project, subject, or purchase. QUOTE: I do believe that there are more than enough people spending money to keep the hobby going. Have you picked up a Walther's catalog lately? I seriously doubt that many products would be available if no one was buying them. So, this "sky is falling" thing that comes up fairly often really doesn't hold water. I think it's just folks with too much time on their hands... and a poor grasp on reality. There's a lot of smoke and mirrors related to the Walthers catalog. At any given time, it's been said that around 50% of their listed products are unavailable/backordered. This complaint has been going on for years and just about everybody is familiar with.. And I'm afraid it's the Pollyannas that have the poor grasp on reality. No matter how many times this particular subject surfaces, I'm afraid it is those who feel the hobby's future is very bright who never...ever...offer a single shread of verifiable evidence that will demonstrate their point of view. It always becomes at matter of: I can't acknowledge your statistics; I won't accept the idea; well...not in my opinion; a guy at the LHS said...; there's got to be an alternate explanation to your every point...I just have no idea what it might be...but...but..! If the outlook was great, then someone would be able to counter each point with published figures we could all see for ourselves. To date, that's never happened even once. QUOTE: How many folks do you know, personally, that are into crafts? Yet we have two huge craft stores and a crafts department in every one of our six Walmarts here in Pensacola. Again, there are enough people buying the merchandise to keep the business going. Are you kidding? I am personally acquainted with a great many and I'd be willing to bet that people into arts and crafts outnumber model railroaders 100:1 - if not far more! Arts and crafts is a huge business today. I go into these stores regularly and they are always jammed...I go into the LHS and odds are I'm the only customer![V] CNJ831 Reply Anonymous Member sinceApril 2003 305,205 posts Posted by Anonymous on Sunday, January 22, 2006 12:35 PM QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831 An interersting set of statistics, especially when one considers that only 2-3% of all layouts are more than roughly ten feet square (less than the size of a small spare bedroom). It makes one wonder why, month after month, the magazines offer us basement filling empires that have no relation whatever to what the typical modeler is attempting to accomplish. CNJ831 QUOTE: Originally posted by andrechapelon Neither do the cars featured in "Road & Track" or "Car & Driver". OTOH, the people who have the nice layouts are the ones who actually WRITE about them. The staff at MR doesn't go door to door looking for them. Build a small layout and write about it. Who knows? It might actually appear in MR. Andre While most of the layouts that they show are basement basement empires. But look at the track plans they publish. Most are generally 4X8 or 10X10 spare bedroom types. Makes you wonder what a "typical" layout looks like. James Reply Edit canazar Member sinceAugust 2004 From: Phoenix, Arizona 1,989 posts Posted by canazar on Sunday, January 22, 2006 12:18 PM QUOTE: You are absolutely right with the statement "however you wi***o define that term". A serious modeler, to me, isn't measured by one's layout, but one's passion. But that's my opinion and really has no relevance to this issue. I believe, to manufacturers, serious modeler is measured by one's cash flow. And there is nothing wrong with that... it's called good business sense. I am very unlikely to do a job for someone who doesn't have the money to pay me(freinds and family excluded). So I would call the people who do pay me "serious" about their project... if they weren't , I wouldn't be doing it. And they are "serious" even if the job is small. So, if someone is spending their hard earned money, they are serious. Again, that's just my opinion. I do believe that there are more than enough people spending money to keep the hobby going. Have you picked up a Walther's catalog lately? I seriously doubt that many products would be available if no one was buying them. So, this "sky is falling" thing that comes up fairly often really doesn't hold water. I think it's just folks with too much time on their hands... and a poor grasp on reality. How many folks do you know, personally, that are into crafts? Yet we have two huge craft stores and a crafts department in every one of our six Walmarts here in Pensacola. Again, there are enough people buying the merchandise to keep the business going. So, I think that "serious" can be defined many ways. And I agree that that it's not just the folks with the empires in the basement that are purchasing the products, but I believe the number of "serious" modelers is vastly larger than 10,000 (I would still like to see where this statistic came from). Good luck, Dave [#ditto][8D] [tup] Best Regards, Big John Kiva Valley Railway- Freelanced road in central Arizona. Visit the link to see my MR forum thread on The Building of the Whitton Branch on the Kiva Valley Railway Reply dave9999 Member sinceJune 2003 From: Along the Murphy Branch 1,410 posts Posted by dave9999 on Sunday, January 22, 2006 11:56 AM QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831 QUOTE: Originally posted by dave9999 Let's be real people. Does anyone think that Lifelike, Atlas, Kato, Athearn, Bachman, Accurail, Kadee... (should I go on) would bother with releasing new locos and rolling stock year after year after year if the numbers were this small? Just trying to put this in perspective... Good luck, Dave But Dave, what makes you think that those 10,000 "serious" modelers are the only ones that buy new locomotives and other hobby-related items and keep the manufacturers afloat? That's like infering that only serious artists buy painting materials and canvas, or that only professional photographers buy cameras. The 10,000 "serious" modelers (however you wi***o define that term) is a very realistic figure but it is necessarily only a small fraction of the several hundred thousand that dabble in the hobby one way and another today. However, cut the latter figure by 2/3 or more and then speculate how good things might be for model railroading. All the magazines, save for MR and perhaps RMC, would outright fail. Runs of new locomotives would need to be in the range of just hundreds to sell out. Companies that produce the misc. detailing and scenicking items have no great profit margin today and most would likely close shop if the hobby declined dramatically. It's definitely is quite predictable. One needs to understand the past to grasp what the future holds - see my earlier post. CNJ831 CNJ831, You are absolutely right with the statement "however you wi***o define that term". A serious modeler, to me, isn't measured by one's layout, but one's passion. But that's my opinion and really has no relevance to this issue. I believe, to manufacturers, serious modeler is measured by one's cash flow. And there is nothing wrong with that... it's called good business sense. I am very unlikely to do a job for someone who doesn't have the money to pay me(freinds and family excluded). So I would call the people who do pay me "serious" about their project... if they weren't , I wouldn't be doing it. And they are "serious" even if the job is small. So, if someone is spending their hard earned money, they are serious. Again, that's just my opinion. I do believe that there are more than enough people spending money to keep the hobby going. Have you picked up a Walther's catalog lately? I seriously doubt that many products would be available if no one was buying them. So, this "sky is falling" thing that comes up fairly often really doesn't hold water. I think it's just folks with too much time on their hands... and a poor grasp on reality. How many folks do you know, personally, that are into crafts? Yet we have two huge craft stores and a crafts department in every one of our six Walmarts here in Pensacola. Again, there are enough people buying the merchandise to keep the business going. So, I think that "serious" can be defined many ways. And I agree that that it's not just the folks with the empires in the basement that are purchasing the products, but I believe the number of "serious" modelers is vastly larger than 10,000 (I would still like to see where this statistic came from). Good luck, Dave GO GATORS !! Old layout http://photobucket.com/albums/v491/davegator/ New layout http://smg.photobucket.com/albums/v491/davegator/New%20Layout%20Building/ Reply canazar Member sinceAugust 2004 From: Phoenix, Arizona 1,989 posts Posted by canazar on Sunday, January 22, 2006 11:51 AM Wow, alot of doom and gloom here. And sounds like there are quite a few folks just sittin there letting the water come in the boat and just lettin it sink...oh well.[8)]... I am not going to tell some of you that I think you are off track, (pardon the pun) and preaching about the doom instead of what you are doing about it, or lack of. But here is my take.... 10,000? I think not. What is a serious modeler? I think you are a serious modeler if you just buy the stuff. Look at the attendance records of all the shows across the country. That right there will show why I think 10,000 is a stupid low number. In my mind, you buy it, your serious. You buy, they will keep making it. I can keep getting it. So, if it is all doom and gloom, what are you going to do about it? Try and share the hobby any way you can. I know not everyone is in a postion to do what I can, but it still the mind set that counts. Mind set you say? Here is a good example, even if you never leave yoru key board...., you are up here yackin about the end of the world and a doomed hobby, some newbie who just joins this forum (like I did 2 years ago) to start up in the hobby find a a thread like this, and starts reading all thinks "Oh man, this could be a one way dead end street, I wont be able ot buy what I want to 20 years... better take up golf". Just killed a moodeler. I have a garage laytout that is open anytime. Over the 2 different houses we have had in the 2 years, I have lost track of the the kids that have come into to see it. Or big kid neighbors. At our old apartmet, there were alot of kids. I used to keep a stack of milk crates so they could see. I also joined a modular club that sets up at shows and puplic events, (train shows, carnivals, fair. etc.) We are always trying to attract new folks. In fact, we junked the NMRA standards for the height and made 40" so more kids could see the layout. Our email listing was 18 1.5 years ago. Now it is up to 0ver 50. I think the hobby will be around for a long, long time. Yes, I agree some aspects of the hobby are changeing.. Like the whole RTR debate. Well, to be honest, if it wasnt fo the RTR aspect, I wouldnt be in deep into the hobby as I am. Full time dad of age 31, I am self employed and work average 50+ hours a week and house to tak care of. Not alot of time, but yet, I got a big ole layout and the RTR is nice when i only have a an hour to kill and I can go to the LHS and pick up somethign new with the kid ..... and have time to play with it. Just my .02 cents. Best Regards, Big John Kiva Valley Railway- Freelanced road in central Arizona. Visit the link to see my MR forum thread on The Building of the Whitton Branch on the Kiva Valley Railway Reply cacole Member sinceJuly 2003 From: Sierra Vista, Arizona 13,757 posts Posted by cacole on Sunday, January 22, 2006 11:28 AM This all just goes to show once again that with carefully made up statistics you can prove anything to your liking, and 95% of the people will believe you, no matter how inaccurate or phony your statistics might be. See, there's another example -- I just made up the 95% figure, but it sure sounds official, doesn't it? Reply Bill H. Member sinceSeptember 2005 From: Middle Tennessee 453 posts Posted by Bill H. on Sunday, January 22, 2006 11:22 AM Reply loathar Member sinceAugust 2004 From: Amish country Tenn. 10,027 posts Posted by loathar on Sunday, January 22, 2006 10:51 AM QUOTE: Originally posted by alco_fan QUOTE: Originally posted by Student of Big Sky Blue I hope I have not bored you, What's boring is that you posted this exact same thing a day or two ago, basically word for word. Are you gloom and doom guys so desparate that you keep posting until somebody takes the bait? [#ditto] I can't do anything about that asteroid (due in 2012 by the way) or the four horseman coming so I just hope I have my layout done by then.[:D] "The future is not set"-John Conner to Sahra. Mmmm..Soilent Green...[dinner] Reply Anonymous Member sinceApril 2003 305,205 posts Posted by Anonymous on Sunday, January 22, 2006 9:05 AM What I've noticed in my four plus decades on the planet is that what you expect to happen doesn't and then a lot of what happens is never even forseen. Enjoy MRR today. Next year you or I may not be here. If we are, maybe we won't have the capacity to participate in the hobby. THE SKY IS FALLING!! THE SKY IS FALLING!! Well maybe it is and maybe it isn't, but I'm going to be enjoying my trains until it falls, if it ever does. Reply Edit dwRavenstar Member sinceJanuary 2005 379 posts Posted by dwRavenstar on Sunday, January 22, 2006 8:05 AM Some predict the demise of the hobby while others look at what might happen with a dark cloud painted on the backdrop. I wonder if railroad hobbyists in the late 50's predicted the appearance of plastic kits, ready made but needing some work cars and locos or the now becoming popular DCC systems with anticipation or anxiety. While worrying about and in fact predicting the demise of the hobby due to an increasing lack of interest how many have made the effort to expose a non-modeller to their railroad model? Consider these numbers: If 10,000 railroad enthusiasts expose just twelve people a year (one a month) with 5% of that 120,000 becoming interested and involved..............6,000 new enthusiasts are born If the 16,000 expose one person a month ( 192,000 X 5% ) ........ 9,600 newborns! When the 25,600 follow the plan ( 307,260 X 5% ) ........ 15,360 new enthusiasts join us. Ok, three years and the original number has quadrupled to nearly 41,000 people. If you're not part of the solution you're part of the problem, to quote an old phrase. When you don't get out there and pull the weeds it's child's play to predict that your flower beds won't look as nice next year as they do now. Ravenstar If hard work could hurt us they'd put warning lables on tool boxes Reply 1234 Subscriber & Member Login Login, or register today to interact in our online community, comment on articles, receive our newsletter, manage your account online and more! Login Register Users Online There are no community member online Search the Community ADVERTISEMENT ADVERTISEMENT ADVERTISEMENT Model Railroader Newsletter See all Sign up for our FREE e-newsletter and get model railroad news in your inbox! Sign up
QUOTE: Originally posted by Student of Big Sky Blue QUOTE: Originally posted by NeO6874 Personally, I have been away from the hobby for too long, with having moved in High school, and now college. But what is bringing me back now is the memories of spending an entire afternoon watching the train run around its figure-8 oval for hours on end (actually, it was a raised fig-8, with a bridge so the train passed over the lower track), and going to other family member's houses, and seeing their trains during the holidays. Though the box of old MR magazines falling on me might've done something about it too..... [8D] I can sympathise with participating in the hobby while in school. When I was in college My model railroading slowed to a tricle In the 4 years I I went to school I got three projects done in that time. (However managed to start like another 7) However I keep plugging away. And something always seems on the verge of materialization. Im hoping that if I am patient eneugh it will. QUOTE: Originally posted by selector Saddle-making....now THERE'S a dying hobby! Who makes saddles, anyway? No one rides horses any more...do they? Well all the cattle ranchers would be glad to know their primary means of conveyance have suddenly become obsolete. Anyone else know how to herd cattle effectivly on a long cattle drive. I have seen ATVs used effectivly. But they alas have limited range.
QUOTE: Originally posted by NeO6874 Personally, I have been away from the hobby for too long, with having moved in High school, and now college. But what is bringing me back now is the memories of spending an entire afternoon watching the train run around its figure-8 oval for hours on end (actually, it was a raised fig-8, with a bridge so the train passed over the lower track), and going to other family member's houses, and seeing their trains during the holidays. Though the box of old MR magazines falling on me might've done something about it too..... [8D]
QUOTE: Originally posted by selector Saddle-making....now THERE'S a dying hobby! Who makes saddles, anyway? No one rides horses any more...do they?
"I like my Pullman Standards & Budds in Stainless Steel flavors, thank you!"
QUOTE: Originally posted by Student of Big Sky Blue QUOTE: Originally posted by BigRusty Lots of interesting opinions. Think about this. The last steam engines disappeared from sight about fifty years ago. No one under fifty ever saw one run through his town. Passenger services ended about forty years ago. No one under forty ever saw a passenger train, or rode on one, with the exception of a few Amtrak and commuter routes. In the late fifties I built my son an elaborate AF 6 x 12 foot layout. He never became a model railroader. None of my four male grandchildren were given train sets. They are computer whizzes in their twenties now. A large percentage of respondents to polls shows that they are modeling the"transition period" when both steam and diesels shared the rails for a few years. Who are these people? Like me they are old enough to have lived through that era. And I'm almost eighty years old. It is therefore primarily a nostalgia thing. When we are dead and gone, where are the model railroaders going to come from? That leaves a few fifty year olds who are fascinated with Amtrak and the few freight railroads that exist in business. A lot of the rails have been torn up long ago. Where is the nostalgia in a Rails to Trails ROW? The baby boomer generation, including my two kids, are into ACTIVE endeavors, such as golf, hiking, you name it. They want to be doers not spectators. Where is the hobby going, slowly but surely down hill, until a relatively few hobbyists won't be able to support the remaining manufacturers. In other words they are in the running board and buggy whip business. Time marches on. Since I am only 23 years old. If Model railroading really does go toes up. Looks like I get to buy stuff cheap. James
QUOTE: Originally posted by BigRusty Lots of interesting opinions. Think about this. The last steam engines disappeared from sight about fifty years ago. No one under fifty ever saw one run through his town. Passenger services ended about forty years ago. No one under forty ever saw a passenger train, or rode on one, with the exception of a few Amtrak and commuter routes. In the late fifties I built my son an elaborate AF 6 x 12 foot layout. He never became a model railroader. None of my four male grandchildren were given train sets. They are computer whizzes in their twenties now. A large percentage of respondents to polls shows that they are modeling the"transition period" when both steam and diesels shared the rails for a few years. Who are these people? Like me they are old enough to have lived through that era. And I'm almost eighty years old. It is therefore primarily a nostalgia thing. When we are dead and gone, where are the model railroaders going to come from? That leaves a few fifty year olds who are fascinated with Amtrak and the few freight railroads that exist in business. A lot of the rails have been torn up long ago. Where is the nostalgia in a Rails to Trails ROW? The baby boomer generation, including my two kids, are into ACTIVE endeavors, such as golf, hiking, you name it. They want to be doers not spectators. Where is the hobby going, slowly but surely down hill, until a relatively few hobbyists won't be able to support the remaining manufacturers. In other words they are in the running board and buggy whip business. Time marches on.
-Dan
Builder of Bowser steam! Railimages Site
QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831 QUOTE: Originally posted by dave9999 ... if someone is spending their hard earned money, they are serious. Again, that's just my opinion. No, Dave, that is what's called a valuable customer. The person can be a complete twit but have the money to spend on whatever they want. The richer they are, the more likely it is to be just a whim they are spending hard cash on. There's a big difference between that and someone serious about a particular project, subject, or purchase.
QUOTE: Originally posted by dave9999 ... if someone is spending their hard earned money, they are serious. Again, that's just my opinion.
QUOTE: Originally posted by dave9999 I do believe that there are more than enough people spending money to keep the hobby going. Have you picked up a Walther's catalog lately? I seriously doubt that many products would be available if no one was buying them. So, this "sky is falling" thing that comes up fairly often really doesn't hold water. I think it's just folks with too much time on their hands... and a poor grasp on reality.
QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831 There's a lot of smoke and mirrors related to the Walthers catalog. At any given time, it's been said that around 50% of their listed products are unavailable/backordered. This complaint has been going on for years and just about everybody is familiar with.. And I'm afraid it's the Pollyannas that have the poor grasp on reality. No matter how many times this particular subject surfaces, I'm afraid it is those who feel the hobby's future is very bright who never...ever...offer a single shread of verifiable evidence that will demonstrate their point of view. It always becomes at matter of: I can't acknowledge your statistics; I won't accept the idea; well...not in my opinion; a guy at the LHS said...; there's got to be an alternate explanation to your every point...I just have no idea what it might be...but...but..! If the outlook was great, then someone would be able to counter each point with published figures we could all see for ourselves. To date, that's never happened even once.
QUOTE: Originally posted by edkowal Yes, you are all correct, the hobby is doomed. As a matter of fact the hobby of model railoading will cease to exist this coming February 18, so get those projects completed before the hobby dies. And anybody who has subscriptions to magazines that go past that date, well sorry, but no refunds. -Ed
QUOTE: Originally posted by alexander13 The reason kids aren't coming into the hobby is because trains aren't "cool" with kids. there are kids who have mocked me for having trains. however there is a quite healthy teen railfan place in another trains.com forum.
QUOTE: Originally posted by BigRusty ...No one under fifty ever saw one run through his town. Passenger services ended about forty years ago. No one under forty ever saw a passenger train, or rode on one, with the exception of a few Amtrak and commuter routes. ... Who are these people? Like me they are old enough to have lived through that era. And I'm almost eighty years old. It is therefore primarily a nostalgia thing. When we are dead and gone, where are the model railroaders going to come from?
Five out of four people have trouble with fractions. -AnonymousThree may keep a secret, if two of them are dead. -Benjamin Franklin "You don't have to be Jeeves to love butlers, but it helps." (Followers of Levi's Real Jewish Rye will get this one) -Ed K "A potted watch never boils." -Ed Kowal If it's not fun, why do it ? -Ben & Jerry
QUOTE: I do believe that there are more than enough people spending money to keep the hobby going. Have you picked up a Walther's catalog lately? I seriously doubt that many products would be available if no one was buying them. So, this "sky is falling" thing that comes up fairly often really doesn't hold water. I think it's just folks with too much time on their hands... and a poor grasp on reality.
QUOTE: How many folks do you know, personally, that are into crafts? Yet we have two huge craft stores and a crafts department in every one of our six Walmarts here in Pensacola. Again, there are enough people buying the merchandise to keep the business going.
QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831 An interersting set of statistics, especially when one considers that only 2-3% of all layouts are more than roughly ten feet square (less than the size of a small spare bedroom). It makes one wonder why, month after month, the magazines offer us basement filling empires that have no relation whatever to what the typical modeler is attempting to accomplish. CNJ831
QUOTE: Originally posted by andrechapelon Neither do the cars featured in "Road & Track" or "Car & Driver". OTOH, the people who have the nice layouts are the ones who actually WRITE about them. The staff at MR doesn't go door to door looking for them. Build a small layout and write about it. Who knows? It might actually appear in MR. Andre
QUOTE: You are absolutely right with the statement "however you wi***o define that term". A serious modeler, to me, isn't measured by one's layout, but one's passion. But that's my opinion and really has no relevance to this issue. I believe, to manufacturers, serious modeler is measured by one's cash flow. And there is nothing wrong with that... it's called good business sense. I am very unlikely to do a job for someone who doesn't have the money to pay me(freinds and family excluded). So I would call the people who do pay me "serious" about their project... if they weren't , I wouldn't be doing it. And they are "serious" even if the job is small. So, if someone is spending their hard earned money, they are serious. Again, that's just my opinion. I do believe that there are more than enough people spending money to keep the hobby going. Have you picked up a Walther's catalog lately? I seriously doubt that many products would be available if no one was buying them. So, this "sky is falling" thing that comes up fairly often really doesn't hold water. I think it's just folks with too much time on their hands... and a poor grasp on reality. How many folks do you know, personally, that are into crafts? Yet we have two huge craft stores and a crafts department in every one of our six Walmarts here in Pensacola. Again, there are enough people buying the merchandise to keep the business going. So, I think that "serious" can be defined many ways. And I agree that that it's not just the folks with the empires in the basement that are purchasing the products, but I believe the number of "serious" modelers is vastly larger than 10,000 (I would still like to see where this statistic came from). Good luck, Dave
Best Regards, Big John
Kiva Valley Railway- Freelanced road in central Arizona. Visit the link to see my MR forum thread on The Building of the Whitton Branch on the Kiva Valley Railway
QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831 QUOTE: Originally posted by dave9999 Let's be real people. Does anyone think that Lifelike, Atlas, Kato, Athearn, Bachman, Accurail, Kadee... (should I go on) would bother with releasing new locos and rolling stock year after year after year if the numbers were this small? Just trying to put this in perspective... Good luck, Dave But Dave, what makes you think that those 10,000 "serious" modelers are the only ones that buy new locomotives and other hobby-related items and keep the manufacturers afloat? That's like infering that only serious artists buy painting materials and canvas, or that only professional photographers buy cameras. The 10,000 "serious" modelers (however you wi***o define that term) is a very realistic figure but it is necessarily only a small fraction of the several hundred thousand that dabble in the hobby one way and another today. However, cut the latter figure by 2/3 or more and then speculate how good things might be for model railroading. All the magazines, save for MR and perhaps RMC, would outright fail. Runs of new locomotives would need to be in the range of just hundreds to sell out. Companies that produce the misc. detailing and scenicking items have no great profit margin today and most would likely close shop if the hobby declined dramatically. It's definitely is quite predictable. One needs to understand the past to grasp what the future holds - see my earlier post. CNJ831
QUOTE: Originally posted by dave9999 Let's be real people. Does anyone think that Lifelike, Atlas, Kato, Athearn, Bachman, Accurail, Kadee... (should I go on) would bother with releasing new locos and rolling stock year after year after year if the numbers were this small? Just trying to put this in perspective... Good luck, Dave
QUOTE: Originally posted by alco_fan QUOTE: Originally posted by Student of Big Sky Blue I hope I have not bored you, What's boring is that you posted this exact same thing a day or two ago, basically word for word. Are you gloom and doom guys so desparate that you keep posting until somebody takes the bait?
QUOTE: Originally posted by Student of Big Sky Blue I hope I have not bored you,