The future of the hobby and an interesting statistic.

[Fergmiester]

What will save the hobby?
The few, the creative, the romantic, the nostalgic, the ones who can't get their jollies or enough satisfaction killing Starfighters, Rebels, Wookies, Aliens, Bad guys or whatever on computers.

There is an element within most of us to create and challenge our abilities as long as that urge remains within the human psyche there will be MR'rs stupid and silly enough to allow themselves to be tormented and also revel in the delights of there succeses of this eclectic hobby of ours.

Ever go to a train show? And ever remember that line in MiB "Elvis never died, he just went home". Ya we ain't normal people and as long as we exist the hobby will too.

Fergie

[IRONROOSTER]

Guess we all better get out now while the getting is good.[xx(][:(]

Let's see. There is more product available now and more being produced all the time. Even in my minority scale of S, there's a lot - more than I can use. There's at least a couple dozen model railroad magazines - some general, some specialized - available. The train shows I go to, you can hardly get a parking space. Yep, pretty obvious the hobby's dying.

One good thing for the future, the cost of the hobby will decline dramatically since all this stuff will be on ebay at distress prices - brass locomotives at $25, Kadee RTR at $2, etc. MR will have how to articles on dumpster diving to get track and power packs.

Personally, I think all the doom and gloom is a bit over the top..
Enjoy
Paul

[roadrat]

I just want to point out some facts about statistics,
1. 78.4% of all stats are made up on the spot.
2. of that 78.4% only 12.6% is based in any reallity, 40.2% is based in comedy, and the other 55.2% is just plain BS.( yes I know this all ='s like 108% but what do you expect I'm making this up as I go!)
3. ahhhh ok I don't have a 3. but remember 61.6% of facts don't have a 3 either.

Hey here's an idea lets not worry about 50 years from now and go work on our latest project.


bill

[CNJ831]

QUOTE: Originally posted by dave9999

Let's be real people. Does anyone think that Lifelike, Atlas, Kato, Athearn, Bachman, Accurail, Kadee... (should I go on) would bother with releasing new locos and rolling stock year after year after year if the numbers were this small? Just trying to put this in perspective... Good luck, Dave

But Dave, what makes you think that those 10,000 "serious" modelers are the only ones that buy new locomotives and other hobby-related items and keep the manufacturers afloat? That's like infering that only serious artists buy painting materials and canvas, or that only professional photographers buy cameras.

The 10,000 "serious" modelers (however you wi***o define that term) is a very realistic figure but it is necessarily only a small fraction of the several hundred thousand that dabble in the hobby one way and another today.

However, cut the latter figure by 2/3 or more and then speculate how good things might be for model railroading. All the magazines, save for MR and perhaps RMC, would outright fail. Runs of new locomotives would need to be in the range of just hundreds to sell out. Companies that produce the misc. detailing and scenicking items have no great profit margin today and most would likely close shop if the hobby declined dramatically. It's definitely is quite predictable.

One needs to understand the past to grasp what the future holds - see my earlier post.

CNJ831

[Anonymous]

I really can't see the hobby being doomed. Model trains of one sort or another have survived as long as the real thing. We may even see increased interest in trains as fuel costs soar and people can't afford to fly. The reintroduction of trolleys/trams in city centres might well produce a new generation of traction modellers too. I'm guessing in 50 years time the talk will be of wiring a solar-powered computer control system, there'll be questions from people who've found this old loco badged "BLI" and want to know if it's worth buying, and someone else will be asking if anyone's heard of this old command control system named "DCC" (guessing something far more advanced will be around by then - with any luck it'll be open-source).

[dave9999]

QUOTE: Originally posted by Student of Big Sky Blue

A few days ago, there was a thread that had a chicken little doom and gloom prediction about model railraoding. While I disagree with it. I do have something that I would like to share about and let you all chew it over and think aobut.

I read an interesting statistic some time ago. Where I glomed onto it has long since faded away into the neirther reagons of my swiss cheese brain. But we can safely assume that it was a model railroading magazine. What I remember is this.

1/2 of all model railroads that are ever built are 32 square feet or less (So we are looking at something like 4X8s and 4X6s and shelf layouts)

2/3s of the remainder fall between 32 and 100 square feet. with average being about 64 square feet. (So we are looking at 4X8 with an added branch up to spare bedroom size)

Only the remaining 1/6 of model railroads that are ever built are the often showcased and prenially desired for "Basement Empire" be it wheather they are actually in a basement, or other places like garages, attics, or even their own special building.

I do not remember if this covered club layouts as well or just home layouts. But I think that even if we include club layouts these numbers would still be pretty accurate.

As for model railroading being a declining hobby. I think the jury is still out. While model railroading since the start of the worlds greatest hobby campaign has in my opinion taken direct aim at the baby boomer generation as they have not only the money, but the time to take up this hobby and pursue it as well. Many of my freinds who live in metroplitan areas and can do things like go to GATS shows tell me that a large majority of the people in attendance are people in their 30s and they are with their excited and enthusiastic kids.

So are we in a decline? Maybe we are. But I also know history has a tendency to repeat itself. I have read that the 1960s was a very tough time to be in model railroading as it seemed that Athearn, Walthers, Mantua/Tyco, Atlas, and Bowser/English/Penn Line (By that time all owned by the english family, but marketed under their own brandnames still) were just about all you had for model railroad suppliers. I am sure when I am in my 50s Model railroading will still be around. And It will be as strong as it ever has been. And those eager and enthusiastic kids are doing things like "Modeling Norfok Southern's former PRR New York Chicago Main line as it appeared at the late great date of 2009."

The part that bugs me most though, is that when they do that. Every thing comes packaged in a neat handy little box. Woodland Scenics will probably figure out a sure fire benchwork system. (Or their Modu-Rail system will take off like wild fire) Locomotive and Cars will all be ready to run and DCC equipped. A DCC system will be in every new train set sold. Buidlings will all be preassembled and lighted. And the only thing left that you will actually have to do for your self, is form the scenery contours as that system has been simplified just about as far as it can go at this point in time.

And the people like me, who actually build their locomotives will be an endangered species. Locomotive and freight car kits will be long gone. And rebuilding discarded old locomotives (Perhaps maybe because the decoder fried?) will be just about the only way people like me can get thier building fix.

So model railroading I feel has a long and healthy future as much as I can forsee. Its just going to shift to more of an open the box and set it on the layout mentality similar to what you see that has been the tradition of toy trains.

I hope I have not bored you, and I apoligise if I have offended anyone as that was not my intent.

James

What I find amazing is how many people on this forum actually buy into what James posted above. First of
all, I would like to see some proof that these numbers are true and not just made up.

James just posted on another topic that only 10,000 people seriously model railroads. Again, no proof... and very unlikely. One of the two LHS's in my area probably has 10,000 pieces on the shelf. They carry every scaleand lots of each. This is only one of hundreds of hobby shops across the country... and I'm not even mentioning the online dealers. This is big business and I doubt that these shops AND all of the manufacturers would even bother for a mere 10,000 "serious" modelers. This is only 200 people per state! BTW James, all statesaren't as sparsely populated as Wyoming. In cities such as Atlanta, there are many, many hobby shops. Would there be this many for their cut of the 200 in the state of Georgia? I seriously doubt it.

Let's be real people. Does anyone think that Lifelike, Atlas, Kato, Athearn, Bachman, Accurail, Kadee... (should I go on) would bother with releasing new locos and rolling stock year after year after year if the numbers were this small? Just trying to put this in perspective... Good luck, Dave

[Anonymous]

QUOTE: Originally posted by tomikawaTT


Fifty years from now the great debate will probably concern minimum radius for microscale (1/1,000,000) maglev equipment, and how to model underground tubeways.

I find that old Hamster trail pieces (http://www.petsr4u.com/proddetail.asp?prod=hg62304&cat=167) make excellent underground tube ways for Maglev M Scale equipment. *nods sagely*



Sorry just couldn’t resist.

But on a serious note... The future is what we make it... lets not ruminate on might bes, because gentleman none of us know the future it may be grander or darker than our vision can encompass... let us use this day for living.


Peace.

Coyote

[espee3004]

This is a wonderful time to be in model railroading. Having just about everything avalible ready to run or easy kits allows me to choose the parts of my railroad I want to build. I have a much better railroad for it.

A good friend gave up HO scale. Time dimmed his eyesight and he had difficulty with his hands. Thanks to ready to run and snap track he has come back to HO scale and is keeping busy with his first love. Scenery and structures.

[CNJ831]

QUOTE: Originally posted by tomikawaTT

In the early 1960's, slot cars spelled the doom of model railroading - or at least that's what one slot car manufacturer said at a hobby manufacturer convention. Some model railroad manufacturers believed him, and took a bath when slot cars changed from a fad to a hobby.

Now Thomas and all of his funny-named friends are going to save us. Very possibly, but don't bet the roundhouse on it.

And that slot car manufacturer was more or less correct, only he didn't realize that the scenario would play out not in the short term but rather in the long term. Currently almost 2/3 of model railroaders were born before the advent of the slot car craze. For that reason, those boys were heavily exposed of model electric trains (Lionel/AF/Marx), which attained their zenith in sales in 1956. If you check the figures, you'll find a dramatic drop in the number of teenagers entering the hobby after about 1965, with their numbers dwindle steadily thereafter. Today the number of teens in the hobby is probably around 1/25 what it was 50 years ago.

So, about twenty years down the road from today, when 2/3 or more of the hobbyist have passed from the scene, model railroading is likely to be in some serious straights. Market size will not be sufficient to sustain more than one or two major manufacturers and very few specialty companies. There might just be Walthers, all alone. Who ever is left, they will also have to charge far more than today's relative prices to keep operational. In short, the hobby will likely have contracted to the size it was immediately after WWII and plastic will be priced like brass. And if Thomas is of any long term influence at all, and I very much doubt that, it will pretty much come too late to matter.

CNJ831

[tomikawaTT]

In the early 1960's, slot cars spelled the doom of model railroading - or at least that's what one slot car manufacturer said at a hobby manufacturer convention. Some model railroad manufacturers believed him, and took a bath when slot cars changed from a fad to a hobby.

Now Thomas and all of his funny-named friends are going to save us. Very possibly, but don't bet the roundhouse on it.

Fifty years from now the great debate will probably concern minimum radius for microscale (1/1,000,000) maglev equipment, and how to model underground tubeways.

As long as there are people who like to build models, some of them will build models of railroad equipment.

As long as there are frustrated Van Sweringens and Harrimans among us, somebody will build and operate models of railroads.

I can only hope that they have as much fun as I've had, and am having.

[Anonymous]

QUOTE: Originally posted by edkowal

Yes, you are all correct, the hobby is doomed.

As a matter of fact the hobby of model railoading will cease to exist this coming February 18, so get those projects completed before the hobby dies.

And anybody who has subscriptions to magazines that go past that date, well sorry, but no refunds.

-Ed

LOL

Nice shot, Ed!

[edkowal]

Yes, you are all correct, the hobby is doomed.

As a matter of fact the hobby of model railoading will cease to exist this coming February 18, so get those projects completed before the hobby dies.

And anybody who has subscriptions to magazines that go past that date, well sorry, but no refunds.

-Ed

[UNIONPACIFIC4018]

I see that none of you take into account the little blue engine named Thomas.
My son is a Thomas junkie Its huge there are so many different sets of Thomas and what does it teach kids to do: Build layouts!!!! The wooden sets allow a child to develop all sorts of designs.
Then you have take along Thomas which is very much like having modules. Each little set hooks to the others so one kid can come over whith his "module and hook up to his friends and then they have a larger layout when they get done they put all the pieces back inside and take them home. There are also tons of videos/dvd's which tell stories how are they any different than our beloved railfan videos just more age appropriate.
Also the price of Thomas is outrageous just lie our trains so it gets parents used to the price so transferring to our style of trains isnt such a shock.
The day out with Thomas event happens and lots of places across the US were talking tons and tons of kids exposed to many railroad museums.
I beleive there might be some slack right now but I bet there will be a huge influx of model railroaders coming when all of these kids grow up.

[CNJ831]

QUOTE: Originally posted by andrechapelon

QUOTE: Originally posted by CNJ831

Originally posted by Student of Big Sky Blue

An interersting set of statistics, especially when one considers that only 2-3% of all layouts are more than roughly ten feet square (less than the size of a small spare bedroom). It makes one wonder why, month after month, the magazines offer us basement filling empires that have no relation whatever to what the typical modeler is attempting to accomplish.

CNJ831

Neither do the cars featured in "Road & Track" or "Car & Driver".

OTOH, the people who have the nice layouts are the ones who actually WRITE about them. The staff at MR doesn't go door to door looking for them.

Build a small layout and write about it. Who knows? It might actually appear in MR.

Not necessarily so, Andre. I was approached via e-mail by one of MR's editors about five or six years back asking if I'd be interested in having my layout in the magazine. At the time I felt my pike wasn't close enough to being finished and fully detailed to my satisfaction, so I turned him down. Since that time the layout has been torn down and a new one started. Guess I probably missed my chance.

CNJ831

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