Do the Model Railroad Manufacturers; or, any other entity have an opinion for how many Model Railroaders there are per capita; or, how many Model Railroad hobbyists there are in the U.S.A.? I would think that the population of Model RR in other countries might coincide fairly well with the amount in the U.S.A. and other countries.
Certainly, in U.S.A., the membership numbers in the NMRA are not indicative of the amount of Model Railroaders, there are. There are less than 20,000 members in the organization and certainly, there are many more Model Railroaders who choose not to be members of the NMRA.
Just curious, if you have a number you would like to pose, could you please state where the number came from?
Thanks in advance!
NP 2626 "Northern Pacific, really terrific"
Northern Pacific Railway Historical Association: http://www.nprha.org/
This question has been asked previously and there seems to be no statistical data anywhere to back it up.
Hobbies are not a census question.
cacole This question has been asked previously and there seems to be no statistical data anywhere to back it up.
I suspect that information is on a need to know bases and is hidden from the public..I have no doubt the manufacturers know and yes,I wish they would share the figures.
Larry
Conductor.
Summerset Ry.
"Stay Alert, Don't get hurt Safety First!"
The usual numbers we get from these discussions are 250,000 to 400,000 in the US. Sorry, I don't have references. In 2007, MR had a reported circulation of 160,000.
It takes an iron man to play with a toy iron horse.
BRAKIE cacole This question has been asked previously and there seems to be no statistical data anywhere to back it up. I suspect that information is on a need to know bases and is hidden from the public..I have no doubt the manufacturers know and yes,I wish they would share the figures.
I would doubt this data is secret, what wouldbe the point?
Many years ago - perhaps the mid 1960s -- MR published some data about the regional or state-by-state nature of their circulation, which if memory serves was approaching their all time high. I believe they were using subscriptions not newsstand sales as the factor. Not surprisingly large railroad centers also seemed to be large model railroad centers. (It was about that time that many businesses began to realize that the then-new zip codes would enable their data processing departments to generate that kind of market research data more easily than before.)
It showed, not surprisingly, the the hobby was somewhat midwestern/eastern in nature and that the deep south and great plains had fewer modelers (i.e. subscribers) than their populations would make you expect.
While I suspect that remains generally the case, there have been some changes since the 1960s that might change things. First, while air conditioning certainly existed in the 1960s it was not as universal as it is now. Thus an indoor hobby such as ours becomes more practical in more parts of the country for a wider economic spectrum of folks.
Another big change was that back in the 1960s, while there certainly were mail order sources, for the most part this was a hobby shop oriented activity and the great plains and other wide open spaces were improbable (not impossible) places for hobby activity. You needed a concentration of customers for the hobby shop to make a go of it. I realize that can be kind of a chicken or egg sort of thing.
The demographic changes to the US have been noted often in these forums but another less remarked change has been the growing popularity of previously highly unlikely places such as Arkansas and parts of Missouri for retirement centers. This might also relate to my first point about air conditioning. Veteran readers of MR might remember when Del Webb advertised his Sun City development in Arizona in the pages of MR, one of the very few non hobby advertisements I can recall. Webb was on to something!
It may well be that while our numbers and population density are lower, we are also more geographically diverse than we were. That is -- thinly spread over a wider area.
That might also explain the decreasing membership of the NMRA. You need a certain focus and proximity for the NMRA's basic Divisional form of organization to work well. The more thinly spread we become. the less the NMRA can do for us, or so it might seem, because it is Divisional activity that usually makes you want to join and renew.
Dave Nelson
NP2626 BRAKIE cacole This question has been asked previously and there seems to be no statistical data anywhere to back it up. I suspect that information is on a need to know bases and is hidden from the public..I have no doubt the manufacturers know and yes,I wish they would share the figures. I would doubt this data is secret, what wouldbe the point?
Who knows why such things happen in the manufacturing world?
Because if you know it and no one else knows it, you have an advantage. Simple business.
MisterBeasley The usual numbers we get from these discussions are 250,000 to 400,000 in the US. Sorry, I don't have references. In 2007, MR had a reported circulation of 160,000.
There is a reason those numbers keep coming up. And of course you have the active vs inactive, etc. Walther's, Kalmbach, Horizon(big distributor)--those guys have a pretty good estimate. Some of the smaller mfgs depend on them indirectly or directly to help identify the market. I looked into making a specialty product and found the market could support 2000 units--not enough to pay for the tooling. This market is small enough that you can get to a saturation point pretty quickly and so things tend to go in cycles. Most modelers want products in the steam/diesel transition era(with a broad definition). That's why there are so many 1st gen diesels on the market and they are reintroduced every so often. In another 20 years or so the bulk of those buyers won't be in the active/procuring cycle. So, changes will occur. I think steam will always have a place. But, my son's generation identify more with the models which represent the prototypes they have been raised with.
Richard
Just to clear things up, the hobby that has the most people involved is gardening, but they aren't having as much fun as model railroading are they?
The question comes up, active to what degree. I have a large layout but bottom feed, my buddy has a plywood pacific but many times pays retail and has a whole lot more of the expensive stuff. Also subscriptions tell nothing as they may all be armchair types.
tatans Just to clear things up, the hobby that has the most people involved is gardening, but they aren't having as much fun as model railroading are they?
Right. Instead of having a green thumb, in this hobby I'm all thumbs.
GARRY
HEARTLAND DIVISION, CB&Q RR
EVERYWHERE LOST; WE HUSTLE OUR CABOOSE FOR YOU
I have found that since I have become more active and talk about the hobby more, there are many more people, not that far away, that enjoy the hobby, some have layouts and some are still in their armchairs.
For those with a gardening green thumb, they might as well be model railroading at the moment as our world has returned to full white for awhile.
Have fun,
NittanyLion NP2626 BRAKIE cacole This question has been asked previously and there seems to be no statistical data anywhere to back it up. I suspect that information is on a need to know bases and is hidden from the public..I have no doubt the manufacturers know and yes,I wish they would share the figures. I would doubt this data is secret, what wouldbe the point? Because if you know it and no one else knows it, you have an advantage. Simple business.
Advantage or not, the data is out there. I could see if Horizon; or, Walther's paid some big money to farm this data, they would be hesitant to share.
I felt substantiated information on how many people are involved in the hobby probably can't be obtained. I should think; however, that the NMRA would have done some work on this question, if only to see how many model railroaders they can't seem to entice into the fold. For them, I should think this question is almost due diligence.
A few thoughts:
Whatever data is out there is simply extrapolated from magazine subscriptions, NMRA or other organizational memberships, prior sales numbers and similar data - not really very accurate.
The only reason it is "secret" is because it is the property of whoever paid to have the work done. Pay for your own study and you can keep it in house as well.
One easy measure in this country is to read forums like this, get a feel for the percentage of members who are in the NMRA, and use that to extrapolate a total.
My guess is that NMRA membership is about one modeler in every 30 that is reasonably active in building a layout or buying reasonable amounts of product. That would say that there are about 600,000 of us in the USA.
As others have suggested, especially here in the large amd diverse USA, broken down by scale, era, railroad, etc, etc, that makes for some pretty small sub sets and very limited markets for a lot of stuff.
Having never been a joiner or a faollower of trends, it is of little interest to me know for sure how big or small the model railroading community is. In the past I considered getting into this business as a manufacturer, but now I don't think I would ever go in that direction.
Sheldon
ATLANTIC CENTRAL A few thoughts: Whatever data is out there is simply extrapolated from magazine subscriptions, NMRA or other organizational memberships, prior sales numbers and similar data - not really very accurate. The only reason it is "secret" is because it is the property of whoever paid to have the work done. Pay for your own study and you can keep it in house as well. Sheldon
The manufacturers do not track this--they are too busy trying to bring the next project to market, dealing with day to day customer service and filling orders.
Maybe the very largest manufacturer/distributors, Walthers and Horizon Hobbies, might have some data--but they would most likely keep it to themselves rather than sharing it with all.
I bet the smaller manufacturers look at it as "well we sold x units of this so I think we can sell y units of this new model".
In the case of Bowser, it is factually true that the pre-orders of C630M's exceeded their original expectations, whatever they were, by enough margin that they made additional tooling modifications to better cover all the Canadian versions than what had been originally announced. This supports the contention that the pre-order number is what is most important to most manufacturers. They don't care how many armchair modelers there might be versus how many collectors or whatever--they only care about the preorder numbers plus some percentage as a "fudge factor" to cover additional orders that materialize before a product enters the U.S.
Bowser also has had no problem whatsoever cancelling product runs that did not meet the minimum pre-order quantity to get made. It happened a couple years ago with some Stewart F Units, but is relatively uncommon. At the time Bowser cancelled, Athearn had duplicated some of the paint schemes in its Ready to Roll line, which likely took away a few sales from Bowser (for example: Santa Fe yellow and blue warbonnet F9A).
John
From MR's required filing printed in the magazine in January they have approx. 130,000 sales (varies a little between 12 month average and actual month nearest filing). RMC is approx. 43,000. Assuming 50% of RMC read MR then the total number of people (and libraries, etc.) buying a scale model railroading magazine is approx. 150,000. While I'm sure there are some folks who buy the magazine and never do anything else in the hobby, I would think that is a pretty small number given the cost is now $5.95/issue. So I would say 150,000 is a good place to put the bottom
It's hard to guess how many folks read a friends, library, etc. copy and do or do not participate in some fashion in the hobby. Also how many are there that only get all their information/news from the 'Net or specialty mags like S Gaugian. But I would guess that 50,000 would be generous. And then there are some casual folks buying mainly for their kids. So I would think that the upper limit is around 250,000 scale modelers (with a very loose definition of scale modeler).
To which you could add the HiRailers and Toy Train Collectors who aren't also scale modelers - maybe another 50,000 tops. All total about 300,000 tops.
250,000 +/- 50,000 would be my guess for all model railroaders including Toy Train guys.
While I can wish that the hobby were larger so we'd have more products (especially in S), I suspect that we are part of a gently declining interest in craft type hobbies.
Enjoy
Paul
IRONROOSTER From MR's required filing printed in the magazine in January they have approx. 130,000 sales (varies a little between 12 month average and actual month nearest filing). RMC is approx. 43,000. Assuming 50% of RMC read MR then the total number of people (and libraries, etc.) buying a scale model railroading magazine is approx. 150,000. While I'm sure there are some folks who buy the magazine and never do anything else in the hobby, I would think that is a pretty small number given the cost is now $5.95/issue. So I would say 150,000 is a good place to put the bottom It's hard to guess how many folks read a friends, library, etc. copy and do or do not participate in some fashion in the hobby. Also how many are there that only get all their information/news from the 'Net or specialty mags like S Gaugian. But I would guess that 50,000 would be generous. And then there are some casual folks buying mainly for their kids. So I would think that the upper limit is around 250,000 scale modelers (with a very loose definition of scale modeler). To which you could add the HiRailers and Toy Train Collectors who aren't also scale modelers - maybe another 50,000 tops. All total about 300,000 tops. 250,000 +/- 50,000 would be my guess for all model railroaders including Toy Train guys. While I can wish that the hobby were larger so we'd have more products (especially in S), I suspect that we are part of a gently declining interest in craft type hobbies. Enjoy Paul
Paul, in my experience working in a hobby shop, and in several clubs and round robin groups, you might be surprised at the number of fairly serious modelers who do not buy magazines at all, or do not buy them on a regular basis.
Just like NMRA memberships, I suspect magazine sales are only a percentage - even after it is extrapolated out over scales and adjusted for overlap.
Don't kid yourselves, the total number of Model Railroaders out there is important to the manufacturers! It's a base from which they would hope to bring something to market. It is potential sales. Consider the total and then consider a percentage from which sales might be made. Yes, the pre-sale order would firm this up. However, having an idea about the total, has to be an important part of a sales data base.
All of us, including myself are talking out the side of our necks about this. However, If I was in the business of selling Model Railroading Products, information such as this would be requisite to my business plan!
NP2626 Don't kid yourselves, the total number of Model Railroaders out there is important to the manufacturers! It's a base from which they would hope to bring something to market. It is potential sales. Consider the total and then consider a percentage from which sales might be made. Yes, the pre-sale order would firm this up. However, having an idea about the total, has to be an important part of a sales data base.
The information is out there, it is just a matter of finding out who has it. Gov't statistics would be a good start, as they do track things for planning/policy purposes. But, you have to tell them what you want, and they will want money for it, because it will take time and research to prepare a report. They do it for businesses all the time, who want to know if this is a good place for a restaurant or car dealership. What is the average income in the area? How old are the cars in the area? Knowledge is power when making decisions.
Using magazine surveys isn't as accurate, as it often doesn't get a good response rate, and only that of the readers. The readers of other magazines are not included either. Even the way the questions are worded can skew the results.
I know there's one in my basement. Beyond that, don't know, not too concerned about it.
Stu
Streamlined steam, oh, what a dream!!
Back in 1987 at the ripe old age of thirty I was overseeing the unloading of a Boeing 747 freighter at Vancouver International Airport. It was snowing like a son of a gun, cold and windy as all get out. There was this older guy about fifty working his tail off getting that thing unloaded. Picture Charles Bronson in "The Great Escape", that's what he looked and sounded like. Later that day I bought him a cup of coffee at the Runway Cafe. The place where all us worker bee's take breaks. His name was Hank and over the next few years we became pretty good friends.
Hank had escaped from Estonia back when it was behind the Iron curtain. At nineteen he had traversed two mountain ranges and made it to the west. A story that movies are made from. We found we both had an interest in trains and he went on to tell me how popular model railroading was in the Soviet Union. Technology for things like R/C aircraft and anything else one would consider modern toy/ hobby interest was not available behind the curtain. However model railroads were big and very popular simply because they were easy to scratch build. Tools for woodworking or metalworking were available to most, so most could put a decent layout together. He said rolling stock wheels were often made out of wood made on laths and worked really well. They did have toy electric trains available, but the quality was poor at best. They could improve the running quality if the modeler had the skill to do so. They usually even made their own transformers. The lucky ones had relatives in the west that would mail them modern Locomotives and complete train sets. Anyone with one of these was the envy of the other modelers.
Jump ahead twelve years. We hired our first Nanny. She came from the Czech Republic and had also lived a miserable life behind the iron curtain. She was an expert at playing with toy trains though. She said every house has one. And for the reasons I stated above, she said it is a very common past time for for the boy's she said. We had a total of four Nannies we hired from the east block and they all were very familiar with trains.
A while back there was a thread on "what is the most modeled railroad". I suggested that it was the Trans Siberian as that is what Hank told me was the most popular thing to model in the Soviet Union and he said MRR is way more popular over there. Every boy knew about it through school and that is what they modeled. I was taken to task by someone, as to how would I know how many cars atlas or Bachmann or someone else had sold with the Trans Siberian Logo on them. At that time I didn't have the chance to explain that most trains modeled after the Trans Siberian were scratch built.
Hank use to mail model trains home to his brothers and nephews and friends. The Joy on his face on a Monday morning when he came in to work telling me what he had sent off to them in the way of MRR stuff was something to see.
Hanks family worked a area of forested land and ran a lumber mill in Estonia. All the tree's were cut down by hand and hauled by horses to the mill. He once asked me if I could use my pull to make sure the two chain saws he bought for his brothers actually got to them. They got the two saws along with lots of spare parts and started cutting tree's down at a much increased rate. Because of the increased output at the mill that just owning two chainsaws caused, this improved their standard of living immensely.
What's the purpose of this story? I don't really know, other than to maybe say, while we don't know how popular MRR is in the West. It was and probably still is more popular in eastern Europe.
If you bother to search out MRR forums in Russia and other eastern Europe countries they are there. The funny thing is, if you hit the translator button you'll see they have the same grumpy old men that we do.
Brent
"All of the world's problems are the result of the difference between how we think and how the world works."
I've tried to start a non-descript, non confrontational thread on something I have a simple passing interest in. I'm not going to bring a model to market, am retired and not at all interested in going back to work! I've put in my time, I've stepped aside; so, the younger generation can step in and take over.
My interest in this topic was purely from curiosity's sake. I was also curious if a general conversation on a topic that I know, no one would be an expert at, could be had and also wondered if the conversation could take place, without it taking the low road.
I can't disagree with anyone's opinions expressed here in this thread. Like I said, I doubt anyone is an expert on this topic. However, some are making statements without backing information to substantiate and it seems that I can't discuss anything here, without it becoming confrontational.
Why is that?
cedarwoodronHere in the US, railroad passenger transport is not a major visible item (anymore), and our urban children...
If they're urban children, odds are they're exposed to LIRR, Metrolink, MBTA, Caltrains, MARC, VRE, NJT, Metro North, Metra, Sounder, and all the other commuter trains that people in those cities use all the time.
cedarwoodronMaybe I should have said "suburban children" who do not use any form of passenger transport other than a school bus. It just seems that "awareness" of railroads is less a part of their lives than in the past, judging from the 150-odd high school students I deal with daily in my teaching profession (in industrial arts). Cedarwoodron
The lack of exposure to public rail transportation on the part of suburban and rural children is nothing new.
My parents made sure I have a drivers licence as soon as I turned 16 - that was in 1973.
NP2626 Like I said, I doubt anyone is an expert on this topic. However, some are making statements without backing information to substantiate ...
Like I said, I doubt anyone is an expert on this topic. However, some are making statements without backing information to substantiate ...
Someone else stated above that some of us are "just talking out our necks", and I must respectfully disagree.
I respectfully offer the following:
a. I am a former employee of Bowser who actually made the trains and who knows the people pretty well (they have known me for 40 years of my life), so I have a little bit of insight into how that one company actually thinks.
b. They do share certain limited information with me, some of which I do or have in the past shared on internet forums, and some of which I cannot share, because they have kindly asked me not to where it relates to their upcoming announcements as well as upcoming announcements from other manufacturers. As I have been burned on other forums in the past, I now share less than previously.
c. I can pretty much guarantee that even if the U.S. government has statistics on numbers of model railroaders, Bowser would most likely consider them to be too vague to be useful and would most likely not take the time and effort to purchase said information. Again--they would look at the preorder numbers and would tend to ignore other data.
d. A few of the people posting on internet forums (for example the Atlas Rescue Forum) are so misinformed and inaccurate that they possess no clue of how little they actually know. If one is seeking to learn the truth, I recommend calling or asking a manufacturer directly.