UP 4-12-2 ... If one is seeking to learn the truth, I recommend calling or asking a manufacturer directly. John
... If one is seeking to learn the truth, I recommend calling or asking a manufacturer directly.
John
Since you, who know them, are not allowed to share, why would they tell a total stranger over the phone?
This whole thread is based on all or us sharing our guesses. And while we each may have what we considered to be clues, the vast range suggests most of us are way off. Furthermore most us make assumptions that are anecdotal or logical sounding, but may or may not be valid for the country as a whole.
In the past people have referred to studies undertaken, but the results are kept secret - and of course the method of the study is also not subject to scrutiny either.
Personally, I have seen nothing here that refutes my guess of 250,000 or anybody else's guess for that matter. We're all just BS'ing around the water cooler.
Enjoy
Paul
IRONROOSTER UP 4-12-2 ... If one is seeking to learn the truth, I recommend calling or asking a manufacturer directly. John Since you, who know them, are not allowed to share, why would they tell a total stranger over the phone? Enjoy Paul
Ok, touche.
What I cannot share is what is about to be announced, period. Anything else is pretty much fair game.
If you call a manufacturer (and get the right person) they typically will gladly answer factual questions--why they changed sound, gearing, what upgrades were made, etc., but they aren't generally going to tell you what is soon to be announced--except that everyone knows an HO M-636 is in the future (Bowser has been quietly saying that to those who contact them and ask).
If you ask why they don't make this or that in undecorated--they will tell you. If you ask about specific roadnames to come, they'll likely tell you. Or they'll say "ok, we'll consider that". If enough people ask for something--it will get made (just look at Athearn's Facebook page--they solicited input for what roadnames folks wanted to see on existing models, stated it was specifically to fill factory slots in the near future, and have said they will seriously consider all the suggestions provided to them. That is absolutely fantastic). Now if one's roadname doesn't get offered, it might just be because not enough folks asked. The best thing you can do is simply ask.
superbe No offense to the OP but when the subject of a thread is asking for opinions on a subject that really doesn't add to mr ing imo diversions from the subject are welcome. I read these threads not only to learn but for entertainment as well and learning more about our fellow members is interesting no matter how many times it is repeated. Just my 2cts. worth. Bob
No offense to the OP but when the subject of a thread is asking for opinions on a subject that really doesn't add to mr ing imo diversions from the subject are welcome.
I read these threads not only to learn but for entertainment as well and learning more about our fellow members is interesting no matter how many times it is repeated.
Just my 2cts. worth.
Bob
I've been back on these forums since sometime early last year, late the year before, I do not recall this subject being asked during that time. If it was, obviously I don't remember it; or, I did not see it.
I disagree, the amount of people involved in Model Railroading is certainly germaine to model railroading!
NP 2626 "Northern Pacific, really terrific"
Northern Pacific Railway Historical Association: http://www.nprha.org/
Joe Staten Island West
4-12-2, I agree with you, your opinion, based on your experience as an employee of a manufacturer, carries some weight.
I posted this thread thinking other people would be interested in a general conversation on the topic. I don't understand why all the off topic posts occured?
Come on guys, keep this thread on topic!
Former statistician reporting, Suh!
When we try to gather a total number of model railroaders, we run into a, "What's in the dustpan?" problem. The category legitimately includes modelers in every possible scale from 1:4 (15" gauge live steam) to 1:900 (air-powered microtrains on a layout the size of a tea tray.) It also includes every craft level from straight out of the box RTR to, "Rips his own scale lumber from forest slash with the bark still on," and "Forges his model parts using iron from old spikes found along the local rail-to-trail."
To be meaningful to a manufacturer, the raw statistic has to be refined to the kind of audience that might be receptive to a given product, which, of necessity, will be of a specific scale and era. That requires a lot more precision (and costs a lot more money.)
If any manufacturer of anything other than raw stick rail includes me in their statistics, they have overestimated by one. I model a very specific prototype, a single month and work in a subminority scale, three strikes for the purveyors of popular North American prototypes in popular scales. OTOH, on the far side of the bigger pond is a whole sovereign nation where my prototype is THE prototype and my chosen scale is the second most popular. Also, it's almost certain that there are more model railroad hobbyists per capita than there are in the contiguous 48.
Why? In Japan it's all but impossible to be unaware of railroads. In the US, railroads are almost invisible. (In Japan, they sponsor baseball teams!)
Chuck (Modeling Central Japan in September, 1964)
I asked a moderator to clean up this tread and delete all the off topic posts. Some people state they have no interest in an answer to my original question and that's fine. I am still interested in an answer to the question. I'm figuring all that can really be done is give it a SWAG.
NP2626 I asked a moderator to clean up this tread and delete all the off topic posts. Some people state they have no interest in an answer to my original question and that's fine. I am still interested in an answer to the question. I'm figuring all that can really be done is give it a SWAG.
SWAG? I'm not familiar with that acronym. Sorta Wild-??? Guess? Something along that line?
I do care about this question, NP, and wish there was a practical way to find an answer. I deeply care about the future of this hobby, and wish more people would get involved (I've been accused of being a train evangelist a few times now). But Chuck stated the problem better than I ever could: the definition of a model railroader is too wide, the category too broad, and the possible different types of modeler/live-steamer/Thomas-the-Tank-Engine-Fan who could be considered part of this hobby too various to have any significant meaning. When we try to delineate what it means to be a modeler, we end up in a slow-motion catfight; someone inevitably feels slighted and starts sniping. What good does that do?
My best SWAG? I'd say about 1 in 150 people I talk to are actively involved in the hobby. Many more have been involved in the past, and those and others are interested in being involved in the future (money and space are the two problems I hear about regularly). Fertile ground for growth, I'd say!
Cheers!
Stu
Streamlined steam, oh, what a dream!!
Scientific Wild A...ed Guess. Which given the broad definition the term model railroader is probably as close as we can come.
Chuck
236625.
Why?? O.K, different country, different hemisphere, but generally similar aspirations in life, so if the village and surrounding district has 45 "model railroaders" most I know of, having helped out in the LHS, plus say another 5 "Very Lone Wolves", then some arithmetic gives me the above number.
Long as we're having fun.
Cheers, the Bear.
"One difference between pessimists and optimists is that while pessimists are more often right, optimists have far more fun."
Specifically, I am involved in HO and interested in scale model railroading. However, the other types are a part of the whole and just as important to the continuance of the hobby. As of the end of 2012, there were 313,914,040 people in the U.S. per the U.S. Census Bureau's statistics. At .5% of this total, 1,569,570 would be involved and at 1% the number would equal 3,139,140 people involved in the hobby. Certainly more than 1% of the population has been involved in the hobby at one time in their lives.
I can tear apart the above numbers pretty easily myself and those numbers are an example of a SWAG simply using percentages of the population.
Those of you who live in big cities and are members of clubs; or, frequent Hobby Shops and think you might have a feel for how many MRRs there are in your area, could maybe come up with statistics on your own and I would like to hear them!
Well if you're going off hobby shops you'll be disappointed in the Northern Virginia area. Only 2 shops that I know of carry trains only and they are primarily 3 rail O gauge. 2 others carry trains as well as other hobby stuff and their train sections are over 50% 3 rail. Another guy has lots of Marklin with some other stuff. I don't include the 2 Hobby Towns since their train sections are so small. Over the last 20 years several excellent shops have closed.
My estimate would be that there are less than 0.05% in the scale model railroading hobby based on the hobby shops and 0.1% in 3 rail O gauge. Or 156,957 and 313,914 using your census figures.
But, I suspect a lot of folks do internet ordering and buy at train shows. And of course the hobby distribution is very uneven in this country.
ATLANTIC CENTRAL A few thoughts: Whatever data is out there is simply extrapolated from magazine subscriptions, NMRA or other organizational memberships, prior sales numbers and similar data - not really very accurate. The only reason it is "secret" is because it is the property of whoever paid to have the work done. Pay for your own study and you can keep it in house as well. One easy measure in this country is to read forums like this, get a feel for the percentage of members who are in the NMRA, and use that to extrapolate a total. My guess is that NMRA membership is about one modeler in every 30 that is reasonably active in building a layout or buying reasonable amounts of product. That would say that there are about 600,000 of us in the USA. As others have suggested, especially here in the large amd diverse USA, broken down by scale, era, railroad, etc, etc, that makes for some pretty small sub sets and very limited markets for a lot of stuff. Having never been a joiner or a faollower of trends, it is of little interest to me know for sure how big or small the model railroading community is. In the past I considered getting into this business as a manufacturer, but now I don't think I would ever go in that direction. Sheldon
A few thoughts:
Whatever data is out there is simply extrapolated from magazine subscriptions, NMRA or other organizational memberships, prior sales numbers and similar data - not really very accurate.
The only reason it is "secret" is because it is the property of whoever paid to have the work done. Pay for your own study and you can keep it in house as well.
One easy measure in this country is to read forums like this, get a feel for the percentage of members who are in the NMRA, and use that to extrapolate a total.
My guess is that NMRA membership is about one modeler in every 30 that is reasonably active in building a layout or buying reasonable amounts of product. That would say that there are about 600,000 of us in the USA.
As others have suggested, especially here in the large amd diverse USA, broken down by scale, era, railroad, etc, etc, that makes for some pretty small sub sets and very limited markets for a lot of stuff.
Having never been a joiner or a faollower of trends, it is of little interest to me know for sure how big or small the model railroading community is. In the past I considered getting into this business as a manufacturer, but now I don't think I would ever go in that direction.
Sheldon
Seems to me that early on in this thread I proposed a similar SWAG based exactly on the kind of data and personal knowledge you have requested.
Repeating, my experience working in hobby shops, and a member of several clubs/round robins, and being a long time resident of the same area, I have come to know lots of modelers in this region and many shop owners and other industry people in this area.
That experience suggests that about one in thirty active modelers belong to the NMRA.
30 x 19,000 = 570,000
And I would also suggest that my personal exposure to high rail/3-rail modelers is limited, so we might well increase that number by anywhere from 50% to 100% to cover that group.
I still think 600,000 would be safe bottom number, and including ALL types of model trains, 1.2 million would seem likely.
I do however believe there are a great many "lone wolf" modelers, who are difficult if not impossible to identify and count. I believe these people enjoy the hooby exactly for that reason - it is something they can do to get away from people. So it is possible the numbers are much higher and that those people would never have even let it be known to me they were in the hobby, let along share their views on NMRA membership. Those people most surely are not on this or any forum.
That brings me to one other thought, which I have shared before - these forums. Just based on my own circle of modeler friends - all forum activity likely accounts for well less than 5% of even the modelers who are active in social aspects ofthe hobby. I know lots of modelers, who have open houses, belong to clubs and the NMRA, go to train shows and conventions, and have NEVER even set up a screen name on a forum - anywhere.
This topic has been kicked up and down the soccer pitch about six times since I joined the forum eight years ago.
Few of us can agree to terminology, let alone to conjecture and 'facts'. What is a model railroader...vs. a railroad modeller? Remember that one? At one time we had a stick-in-the-mud member who insisted that 'serious' modellers were what were keeping the hobby pure. All the other buyers (who were also trains enthusiasts and who also knew how to have fun playing with trains) were just chaff, comers and goers, unskilled, not contributing anything durable to the hobby. That begs the question: is only the 'serious' modeller a true hobbyist, or are all who purchase something approximating a motorized train also in the hobby? It makes a difference, wouldn't you agree?
Or, who buys our host magazine? Seriously. The numbers won't tell us much, but the who do....er...you get the point. From Kalmbach's point of view, they must have paying sponsors to each edition of their monthy. Those sponsors must have something approximating a business case telling them that there is value in paying for ads in MR. I wonder what the metrics are that suggest there is good value to posting in MR and paying for the ads you see in the margins on this page. If they could tell us, would anyone really know over and above those who crunch the numbers for each business? Is Kalmbach privy to the annual fiscal health of Walthers, for example? I'd say no to that.
I have stated in the past that my best guesstimate is somewhere near 200K people keep the hobby with pink skin and not blue skin in the USA. I am probably off by close to 100K, but that's all. There are so many other forms of entertainment that provide a lot of enjoyment clout for their owners that compete with the discretionary income across the nation. What's the latest Samsung Android phone, the S IV, going to cost, and how popular would you say it will be. I'll bet if your average steam hobbyist purchases $500 worth of any scale locomotives per annum, about 30 of his townfolk are going to spring for either a renewed cellular contract-***-S IV or iphone6, or just purchase them outright with some bargain price hunting. How many hobbyists use computers and visit these forums? Probably one in 15. That should rise over time, but today, with all the older DC grumps still enjoying their layouts, one in 15 is probably close to the truth.
I know I'm all over the place with this, but....I can't put my finger on any one piece of public and verifiable information to convince me that I am rather grossly mistaken.
Crandell
ATLANTIC CENTRAL ... That experience suggests that about one in thirty active modelers belong to the NMRA. 30 x 19,000 = 570,000 ... Sheldon
...
Just a random devilish thought here, but does the fact that less than 15000 actually pay dues each year affect your estimate?
IRONROOSTER Well if you're going off hobby shops you'll be disappointed in the Northern Virginia area.
Well if you're going off hobby shops you'll be disappointed in the Northern Virginia area.
Yet, the DC-Baltimore corridor is chock full of names I see in the magazines!
Besides, all NoVA needs is a few places to get the emergency or spur of the moment paint-glue-tools stuff that any general hobby shop stocks. MB Klein is only an hour away for the rest!
Here is a new idea - if we could get the customer lists from Train World, MB Klein, FDT, Walthers, Bowser, Caboose hobbies, and Horizons train sales - then cross reference them for duplication - we might have a good list of current active "buyers".
Good luck getting any of those companies to give up that info.
For whatever it is worth, my customer number at Train World is a 6 digit number just short of 200,000 - of course we don't know how their system is set up or if they purge inactive customers.
I have nothing to prove my opinion; but, I think the lower estimates are far to low. I was in a club located in a small town less that 40 miles away in the mid to late 90s. That club had close to 25 members. This is out in the hinterlands here in the northern part of Minnesota where of course the hobby is maybe not as well represented as it is on the two coasts.
When I've talked with members of my church and other folks and they find out what my hobby is, a few have commented that they know someone else involved in the hobby. Also, my guess is the number of lone wolf MRRs is considerably higher than we think. Again, my contention is that all we can do is come up with a best guess as the information is just not available. However, it would not surprise me if there were more than a million people in the hobby, here in the USA.
NP2626 I have nothing to prove my opinion; but, I think the lower estimates are far to low. I was in a club located in a small town less that 40 miles away in the mid to late 90s. That club had close to 25 members. This is out in the hinterlands here in the northern part of Minnesota where of course the hobby is maybe not a s well represented as it is on the two coasts. When I've talked with members of my church and other folks and they find out what my hobby is, a few have commented that they know someone else involved in the hobby. My guess is the number of lone wolf MRRs is considerably higher than we might think. Again, my contention is that all we can do is come up with a best guess as the information is just not available. However, it would not surprise me if there were more than a million people in the hobby, here in the USA.
I have nothing to prove my opinion; but, I think the lower estimates are far to low. I was in a club located in a small town less that 40 miles away in the mid to late 90s. That club had close to 25 members. This is out in the hinterlands here in the northern part of Minnesota where of course the hobby is maybe not a s well represented as it is on the two coasts.
When I've talked with members of my church and other folks and they find out what my hobby is, a few have commented that they know someone else involved in the hobby. My guess is the number of lone wolf MRRs is considerably higher than we might think. Again, my contention is that all we can do is come up with a best guess as the information is just not available. However, it would not surprise me if there were more than a million people in the hobby, here in the USA.
Agreed.
While I consider my estimates conservative and reflective of the methods used to generate them. I too believe the "lone wolf" crowd is way larger than most of the "social types" think.
Social science points to the idea that at least 60% of the population are introverts - what would that say about model railroaders relative to clubs, train shows, the NMRA, etc?
A good comparison is smoking - go in a bar, find a smoker, ask them what percentage of the population smokes - they will tell you 60%, 80% or more because they are around smokers. FACT, at its most popular, only about 38% of adults ever smoked.
Social type modelers on this forum, or talking to people at clubs, or train shops and shows, will tend to think they actually know most of the people who are modelers in their area - there is good chance they have only met 20-40% - maybe less.
I live in a northern California rural county with a population of around 58,000 persons. From what I can tell there are 15 persons that are in one way or another involved with the county NMRA club. I am not a member as I am a lone wolf modeler. I would not be surprised if there are some others like me.
I am sure that counties near big cities have far more involved then we have. The county south of me, closer to SF has over a hundred into model trains with a population of 136,840. So if some one wishes to extrapolate the amount of those into MRR by the total of counties in the US, or by the population at 15 per 58,000. That would give at least minimum amount.
Ken G Price My N-Scale Layout
Digitrax Super Empire Builder Radio System. South Valley Texas Railroad. SVTRR
N-Scale out west. 1996-1998 or so! UP, SP, Missouri Pacific, C&NW.
NP2626 Do the Model Railroad Manufacturers; or, any other entity have an opinion for how many Model Railroaders there are per capita; or, how many Model Railroad hobbyists there are in the U.S.A.? I would think that the population of Model RR in other countries might coincide fairly well with the amount in the U.S.A. and other countries. Certainly, in U.S.A., the membership numbers in the NMRA are not indicative of the amount of Model Railroaders, there are. There are less than 20,000 members in the organization and certainly, there are many more Model Railroaders who choose not to be members of the NMRA. Just curious, if you have a number you would like to pose, could you please state where the number came from? Thanks in advance!
Do the Model Railroad Manufacturers; or, any other entity have an opinion for how many Model Railroaders there are per capita; or, how many Model Railroad hobbyists there are in the U.S.A.? I would think that the population of Model RR in other countries might coincide fairly well with the amount in the U.S.A. and other countries.
Certainly, in U.S.A., the membership numbers in the NMRA are not indicative of the amount of Model Railroaders, there are. There are less than 20,000 members in the organization and certainly, there are many more Model Railroaders who choose not to be members of the NMRA.
Just curious, if you have a number you would like to pose, could you please state where the number came from?
Thanks in advance!
Well, define "model railroader."
Someone who has a layout? Someone who collects trains? What about someone who doesn't own any trains but likes reading magazines about model trains? All of the above could qualify as someone who reads/subscribes to MR. But there's also those people who don't read/subscribe to MR...
Metro Red Line Well, define "model railroader." Someone who has a layout? Someone who collects trains? What about someone who doesn't own any trains but likes reading magazines about model trains? All of the above could qualify as someone who reads/subscribes to MR. But there's also those people who don't read/subscribe to MR...
My original question did not stipulate definitions, other than Model Railroaders. If you're going to define, then you need to attempt to determine how many are involved in the various scales; or, other defining attributes of the hobby. Therefore my opinion is "definitions" diminish the answer I'm interested in. If you want specific answers to the amount of people involved in what you feel defines the hobby, then I would suggest you tailor a question designed to answer your specific question.
In actuality, because a definitive answer to my question is not likely to be forth-coming. Answers to your more restrictive question are unlikely, also!
Dr. Frankendiesel aka Scott Running BearSpace Mouse for president!15 year veteran fire fighterCollector of Apple //e'sRunning Bear EnterprisesHistory Channel Club life member.beatus homo qui invenit sapientiam
jeffrey-wimberly Metro Red Line Well, define "model railroader." Someone who has a layout? Someone who collects trains? What about someone who doesn't own any trains but likes reading magazines about model trains? All of the above could qualify as someone who reads/subscribes to MR. But there's also those people who don't read/subscribe to MR... I have a layout but I'm not working to super-detail it. I have quite a few trains but I'm not a collector. I run my trains but I'm not an operator. I just like to see the trains run. I do have some books on model railroading and I do get the Walthers Flyer and a couple of free online publications but I haven't even so much as glanced at a MR magazine or any other printed model railroad type magazine for many years. How many like that are out there? They won't be on any list that you can compare or cross-reference
I think that trying to define the term 'model railroader' can't be done without offending someone. I would probably fall somewhat into Jeffrey's category then there are the super detailers, the collectors, the professionals and on and on. It's an individual definition.
When I worked in non-profits there were various mailing lists that we could buy or rent with each one being filtered by a set of criteria based on an individual's attendance, contributions and ticket purchases. We would use various lists depending on the type of person we were trying to attract. My point is that even a mailing list may not be as accurate an indicator as one may think. I do know that, based on some unsolicited mail that I receive, some retailers who shall forever remain nameless, do provide mailing lists and contact information to other companies. There are ways of reducing this junk mail so if someone has done this, that affects the accuracy of the numbers.
Finding some kimd of answer to the OP's question would be interesting. Also, if there were some reliable historical data that could be found, it may help determine the status of the hobby.
There's never time to do it right, but always time to do it over.....
NP2626When I've talked with members of my church and other folks and they find out what my hobby is, a few have commented that they know someone else involved in the hobby. Also, my guess is the number of lone wolf MRRs is considerably higher than we think.
I fully agree..I talk to a lot of the fair attendees during the week of the county fair and I'm shocked at the number that says they know somebody in the hobby or they have a 4x8' layout in the basement they work on from time to time as a past time..Then there's the "I have a 4x8' layout in the basement for the "grandson" types..
One of my favorites was this 30 something lady that left me in shock and awl..
She stated that she and her son was building a layout in the basement and will be using DCC..Then she tells me her plans of dropping feeders every 8',using power blocks and other such layout things..She said they preferred Atlas and P2K locomotives..
Larry
Conductor.
Summerset Ry.
"Stay Alert, Don't get hurt Safety First!"
BRAKIEOne of my favorites was this 30 something lady that left me in shock and awl.. She stated that she and her son was building a layout in the basement and will be using DCC..Then she tells me her plans of dropping feeders every 8',using power blocks and other such layout things..She said they preferred Atlas and P2K locomotives..
"Shock and Awl", I've always had this happen when sticking my awl into a wall receptacle to see if it's "hot"!
There is an answer to the OP's question. Unfortunately, it is virtually impossible to determine the answer because people involved in the hobby are not required to register and such data is not reported on census forms.
I recently read a story in the Washington Post about the number of gun owners in the U.S. There are somewhere around 4.5 million NRA members, arguably a little less than that. But, there are also 70 million Americans who say that they own a firearm. That equates to NRA membership of only 6 percent of gun owners.
Using this one piece of unscientific data as my basis, and assuming that there are 200,000 subscribers to MR magazine, my estimate of model railroaders is somewhere around 3, 333,333.
Nuts, you say.
Well, consider this. Who has a model railroad? Is that a layout on bench work or a 4 x 8 piece of plywood on a basement floor? Must the loco be electric? What about battery operated? A kid with a Thomas the Train on the family room carpet? I have a brother in layout without a layout but he collects steam engines in a display cabinet.
Who gets counted? Who doesn't count?
What constitutes a layout? What doesn't?
I am going with 3,333,333 as my number.
Rich
Alton Junction
Ahhh, Richhotrain, methinks you have given the last word for this thread..................
ENJOY !
Mobilman44
Living in southeast Texas, formerly modeling the "postwar" Santa Fe and Illinois Central
Rich,
Your 333,333,333 number pretty well agrees with the 1% of the population figure I postulated on the last page. Both might be considered to have been pulled from the darkest regions of nebulosity; but, hey, I'm good with that!
Is the case closed?
Case closed.
Good thread.