In the numerous discussions of this nature, and those related to the unsteady pins on which our hobby rests [as one former member lamented with regularity], I did agree with those who assume that steam's days as a market commodity in the hobby are numbered. It stands to reason that as more steamers drop their excursion/theme park fires over the next 40-80 years and cannot be economically refurbished or operated due to lack of subscriptions or interested benefactors/sponsors, steam will increasingly become a distant anachronism to those who enter the hobby as newcomers. They just won't have much of an appreciation for steam when the last one or two die for the last time and go to museums. Diesels, themselves, are surely in a finite lifespan both in real life and in the hobby, and for the same reasons; they'll be found uneconomical for any number of reasons, u-pick-'em, and will be relegated to silent looming shadows in darkened museums after hours.
I won't state that no one will offer them, but if you think the brass market in steam is tight now, and that even diecast and plastic steam is a waiting game after placing a pre-order now is tough, wait for a few years to see how the very tiny market will require serious up-front orders in order to justify the costs of producing the many, many, different types of steamers that existed on the high rails 70 years ago. The money can't help but go to the Great Lion that is consumer interest, and that will be what they first find a thrill in when it comes to railroad experiences. It will almost certainly not be as much steam as we see today.
Crandell
I never was nor ever will be interested in modeling steam. Why?
1) I was born when the last steam locos were taken out of service, therefore no prototype steam locos to inspire me to model.
2) Model steam locos (e.g. HO and N scale) do not have the one thing that makes steam locos so interesting to watch - steam. A real live steam loco has steam and smoke spewing out of it - lots of steam and smoke.
3) Real steam locos have details that are specific to particular railways - e.g. boilers, cabs, domes, piping, tenders, headlights, etc. Plastic models of such locos are rare - most plastic models are the USRA type.
As for the future of steam models, it's pretty much a safe bet that model railroad manufacturers will continue to offer steam locos. There are always going to be a few people out there that like the woo woo chugga chugga stuff.
Richard,I remember the last years of main line steam and seeing long dead lines of stored steam locomotives awaiting the scrapper and yet I never really got bit by the steam bug.Over the years I had a Santa Fe 1950 class 2-8-0 by united,a U.P 0-6-0 by United,a class B 2 truck Shay by United,a MDC Shay and a Bachmann 0-6-0T but,just couldn't stay interested in steam.
To be honest I have thought about modeling a short line set in 1955 but,so far its been nothing more then a idea.
Larry
Conductor.
Summerset Ry.
"Stay Alert, Don't get hurt Safety First!"
Steam will fade once the generations that experienced it die off.
But, let's face it, model railroading itself will fade as the Baby Boomer generation dies off.
Rich
Alton Junction
I'm 34 and have always liked steam, but I'd say my interest has really grown in the past 10 years or so. Although I can appreciate all steam, the only ones I really care to own at this time are from the CB&Q. I've got 5 or 6 CB&Q brass steam engines along with a couple scratchbuilds, with many more planned.
I've only seen three real, operating steam engines so far. I've seen 4449 run by, 1630 at IRM long before I could appreciate it, and I've recently seen the Leviathan.
Richard
I have to disagree with a few of your summations.
#1 Look at Bachmann. For entry level steam they can't be beat. I also have some BLI Blueline series that were under $175 brand new.
#2 If you can tinker you can get your steamers running better than a diesel. I used to MU 2 or even 3 steamers up front pulling 60 or more cars with 2 pushers on the rear and run up the big hill at the club. All with sound. It was a big draw and most other operators would stop their trains and watch the show.
#3 I just finished a brass 0-6-0 with sound. I put the decoder and all the wiring inside under the motor in the ash pan and ran just 2 wires to the speaker in the tender that filled the whole floor of the little slope back.
#4 The youngest members of our club are steam heads. Neither one owns a diesel. One is 16 the other is 13. They will be around a long time.
I was not even a glimmer in the old mans eye when steam dropped the fires. I grew up with diesels and own very few of them. I will take steam any day.
Pete
I pray every day I break even, Cause I can really use the money!
I started with nothing and still have most of it left!
I'm sure that if the non-steam generation ever stood beside a steam locomotive as it was passing that would trigger an instant interest into steam locomotives, I know, it will never sway diesel buffs to switch to steam but would generate some interest. Actually an interesting post which I never contemplated, be nice to see more reasons just what will happen in the future.
Harry k Birks
You help make my argument to the others. Steam is far too cool and interesting to just go the way of the dodo bird. Folks will continue to be infected by innoculation on the internet watching old steam in action or going to a live steam tourist road and falling love with the look and lore.
Economically, the real railroads had to abandon steam, but I feel model rails never will.
If I can't fix it, I can fix it so it can't be fixed
I model steam, was never arround real steam.
In a recent discussion with some older model rails, a few were of the opinion that model steamers would fade in years to come. All agreed they would never disappear but hinted that many modern modelers of the younger set were never around operating steam and in spite of cool videos and real tourist steam operations all over the U.S., many choose the familiar diesel as there motive power choice.
I tended to defend steam in the future modeler's layouts, but admitted that far more people start out today with 100% diesel roads, mostly due to cost factors.
We went on to enumerate the various reasons why diesels are used more than steam especially in startup layouts.
#1 They are just plain less expensive at the beginner level
#2 At any given price point, a diesel will always out "realistically perform" a steam model. (Big money is needed for a flawless performing steamer.)
#3 For those looking to go DCC and convert, the diesel often has a lot more room in it that a steamer and you are not wiring to another car in tow. (Almost no steamer winds up with DCC sound and controller in the boiler!) The tender, while roomy in the big road engines can be quite small on early 1900's engines.
#4 Diesels are familiar to the under 50 set and many have modeled them all their MR careers for the reasons noted above.
In the end, most of us felt that it would 20-50 years down the road before steamers would fade to the point that the available selection would be heavily reduced based on reduced demand on sales. We felt this in spite of the modern work in making steamers much more realistic in operation, though still a bit more pricey than a flawlessly performing diesel.
What are the thoughts of others here? Will pure nostalgia and steam's innate coolness remain forever and support continued variety releases and re-releases? I would like to think so, but I think a lot of things that are wrong headed sometimes.