Richard,
I think you have summarized the discussion quite well. I think it is time to move on now.
This thread really ballooned over the weekend! (I was not online)
Again, it seems that a lot of folks drifted from the original intent related to steam only and turned it into a diesel vs. steam issue.
What I did gather from all this was that most folks tended to agree that steam will lose some ground in the future, which seems reasonable. Most also agreed that steam modeling would never be dead or extinct as long as there are wheels on rail in real life. To what degree and how rapid or steep the fade off curve will be is for the future to tell.
One interesting thought presented was that people have to model an era. That determines everything in model railroading; rolling stock, motive power, structures, etc. In that context, any modeling prior to the mid thirties has to be predominantley steam and anyhting up to the sixties can be mixed. MR history buffs may be the ones keeping steam alive.
For me, the more I read about the narrow gauge 1900-1960, the more I fall deeper in love with the diminutive "tea kettles" that were nursed far beyond their normal life span by people of sterner stuff than are normally seen today. These people were hardy railroaders scratching out a living on rails 3 feet apart with trains that often never exceeded 25 mph and in certain areas clawed and crawled along at 5-10mph. Falling in love with an era and the thoughts of the way things were can keep steam alive for sure, but only if you care enough to read about what you are modeling. It is this kind of modeler that will stay with MR all their lives, regardless of era chosen.
Richard
If I can't fix it, I can fix it so it can't be fixed
Hi,
Sure it will be great.
All manufacturers have a lot of new steam model in their catalog.
Anytime, everywhere in any country, when a real steam loco is running the youngsters are there and they love these engines.
Two or three months ago a big hobby shop here in Belgium offer a trip between Brussels and their new location, which is on the second floor of a small town station.
Most of the travellers were youngsters and the train made a second trip on the journey because of the too heavy demand.
Everybody and especialy the youngsters were atonished.
At some place the car traffic was stopped because of the to many people looking at the passing of the old engine.
The success was well above anyone could think.
Big manufacturer like Bachmann or Marklin offer more steam model than electric or diesel in the same time and the release are quick sold out.
I never see steam in action, but they are like the dinosaurs; they lived a small 100 years on earth and their appeal is still great even by the youngsters.
We have many cocooned steam locos here in Belgium and a new museum will be built in the coming months here in Brussels to show them and the great engenering made in Belgium for steam like the work of Mister Wallschaert, well know also in US for his system.
So sure great life to steam.
Marc, Belgium
I had a friend over yesterday and he brought his 2 son's, 15 and 13 years old. They ran diesels while they where over and never touched the 3 steam engines that where sitting on the track and ready to go?
They all so have a layout and there dad said they never run there steam engines at home either?
Cuda Ken
I hate Rust
CP guy in TX I don't buy the steam will die shtick... Young people spend many thousands of dollars restoring Model A's, even though Ford hasn't built one on 80 years. People go to air shows by the millions every year to see old piston aircraft from the 30's and 40's fly. Nostalgia is always cool...... Steam will live forever..
I don't buy the steam will die shtick...
Young people spend many thousands of dollars restoring Model A's, even though Ford hasn't built one on 80 years.
People go to air shows by the millions every year to see old piston aircraft from the 30's and 40's fly.
Nostalgia is always cool...... Steam will live forever..
Geez, guys, no one has said that steam will die.
Re-read the OP's original post.
OK, I will reprint it for you.
In a recent discussion with some older model rails, a few were of the opinion that model steamers would fade in years to come. All agreed they would never disappear but hinted that many modern modelers of the younger set were never around operating steam and in spite of cool videos and real tourist steam operations all over the U.S., many choose the familiar diesel as there motive power choice.
Steam will fade, not die.
Rich
Alton Junction
Van Hobbies H1b, K1a, T1c, D10g, F1a, F2a, G5a. Division Point: H24-66 Hammerhead, Alco covered wagons A-B-B-A, C-Liner A-B-B-A, EMD FP7A A-B-B.
H1b modified to replicate modern day 2816. All with Tsunamis.
I don´t know if steam locos are that unpopular among younger people. I´m only 26 and I love steamers more than diesels and electrics. If I´m honest my fost favorite era to model is the Old West time from around 1870 to 1900. I simply love the looks of old trains and love the mechanism of steam locos. I also know a couple of other people around my age, who are also quite fascinated about steamers. I guess it´s because we didn´t live in that era and find them therefore more exciting than today´s trains.
A number of those very same facts are why I have no interest in modeling the 60's or 70's.
Sheldon
---------------------
Sheldon,The 70s was a interesting decade in many ways We seen the rebirth of Eastern railroads through Conrail,we seen those nice looking IPD short line boxcars,we was told the big lie of '71..The 80s was interesting as well with mega mergers,lots of steam excursions and of course more rationalization of the railroad plant that included more mega mergers and the demised of the cabooses and brakeman.
I fully believe those mega mergers saved the future of the railroads.
As sad as it is I call the 60s the decaying years as more and more railroads slid deeper and deeper into red ink..
Of course all was not gloom and doom roads like the C&O/B&0,N&W,UP,SF was in good financial shape for that era.
Larry
Conductor.
Summerset Ry.
"Stay Alert, Don't get hurt Safety First!"
onequiknova richhotrain: When you say that you know "a lot of modelers who model steam who are a lot younger than that", how many? Probably just a few. What I find amusing is that some people who experience something contemporary cannot imagine it passing or fading away. Just remember that at one time the largest publicly traded company in the world was United States Leather Company. It is no longer with us. Rich Your argument that when the people who've experienced something die off, it will fade away just doesn't hold water. Look at all the people reenacting the civil war, or the Renaissance for that matter. Do you think any of those guys were around back then? I fly RC airplanes, and WWI & WWII war planes are more popular now than ever. I don't see too many 90 year old men at the flying fields. People will always want to recreate history. It's in our nature. Sure, the numbers will dwindle as time goes on, but there will always be that niche.
richhotrain: When you say that you know "a lot of modelers who model steam who are a lot younger than that", how many? Probably just a few. What I find amusing is that some people who experience something contemporary cannot imagine it passing or fading away. Just remember that at one time the largest publicly traded company in the world was United States Leather Company. It is no longer with us. Rich
When you say that you know "a lot of modelers who model steam who are a lot younger than that", how many? Probably just a few.
What I find amusing is that some people who experience something contemporary cannot imagine it passing or fading away. Just remember that at one time the largest publicly traded company in the world was United States Leather Company. It is no longer with us.
Your argument that when the people who've experienced something die off, it will fade away just doesn't hold water. Look at all the people reenacting the civil war, or the Renaissance for that matter. Do you think any of those guys were around back then? I fly RC airplanes, and WWI & WWII war planes are more popular now than ever. I don't see too many 90 year old men at the flying fields.
People will always want to recreate history. It's in our nature. Sure, the numbers will dwindle as time goes on, but there will always be that niche.
Sure, there will always be a niche, but my original contention holds. Steam will fade.
Simon, as the French would say, "Precisement."
I wonder if the aircraft RC world offers a parallel. I honestly don't know as I have no connection to that hobby whatsoever, but it would be interesting to see if the youth of today pick propellar-driven aircraft over modern fighter jets and passenger aircraft when they are in a position to choose.
Crandell
These are personal observations only. First off, I am a child of the 60's and grew up in England. I did get to see the end of steam. I have 2 sons, 12 and 15 years of age. We run and enjoy several steam loco models from both the US and the UK. My 2 boys save up their own money and purchase their own trains. Neither of them has ever purchased a steamer. They want SD70Ace, hi-speed passenger trains and things like that. Our layout is transition era, and so I resisted their desires for the longest of times, but eventually relented and now they each have their own rosters of locos that are modern.
You may have seen me post videos from the huge K-10 layout, where kids get to run trains each month. Many of them bring their own locomotives. The only steam that the kids bring tends to be Thomas and friends. This is typical of what the kids like to run. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=niKK-ZuQ_XA&feature=plcp http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4rBOEvsmMQ&feature=plcp
Now, don't get me wrong, when a steam locomotive is running, you do hear oohs and aahs, especially if it is iconic big steam.
I just went upstairs and asked the boys if they would spend any of their own money on a steam train, both answered "No!" without hesitation. The younger one then modified his answer to say "It depends, perhaps a Challenger or Big Boy"
Of course their will be exceptions to any rule, but I do get the sense that as time goes on, there will be new young modellers that not only have not seen steam themselves, but don't even know anyone that has seen a steam engine. Even their grandfathers won't have seen one.
Simon Modelling CB&Q and Wabash See my slowly evolving layout on my picturetrail site http://www.picturetrail.com/simontrains and our videos at http://www.youtube.com/user/MrCrispybake?feature=mhum
In the absence of confidential information regarding actual sales, which the manufacturers will not release, and for which I have been flamed elsewhere online for giving away bits and pieces of that information when it has been passed along to me, about the only thing we can do to get any kind of gauge regarding actual sales is to watch the MB Klein website (from the day an item shows up when the initial quantity is received until they are gone). I personally am very thankful, as a frequent paying customer, that they have the inventory online with real time updates for the whole world to see. Sometimes I miss out on items because I can't get the money in time before the last example sells out, but sometimes I am able to get the last one--sometimes I've had to wait and monitor the declining inventory until I had the cash available to buy something...Just this week I bought the last Intermountain Lehigh Valley F-7 they had and the last Athearn/Roundhouse CN grey boiler 2-6-0.
Crandell--I'm sorry to say it appears you may be incorrect regarding "so little steam released" in the past year.
They sold through their entire inventory of some steamers, typically at least 6 of each road number if not 12 or more, and just received some more of each. They've sold several dozens of EM-1's and 2-6-6-2's...
Respectfully submitted--
John
BRAKIE I can provide a long list of other like minded people my age and younger - I was born in 1957. Sheldon --------------------------- I was born in '48 and by the time you was born I was witnessing four things. 1.The last dying gasps Steam locomotives. 2.The coming of the Trucking Industry Interstates. 3.The slow death of the passenger train. 4.Railroad filth and the down hill slide of the railroads in general. These was far from the so called "glory" years. One could say by the late 50's the railroad pallbears was put on alert as more and more freight was lost to trucks.
I can provide a long list of other like minded people my age and younger - I was born in 1957.
---------------------------
I was born in '48 and by the time you was born I was witnessing four things.
1.The last dying gasps Steam locomotives.
2.The coming of the Trucking Industry Interstates.
3.The slow death of the passenger train.
4.Railroad filth and the down hill slide of the railroads in general.
These was far from the so called "glory" years.
One could say by the late 50's the railroad pallbears was put on alert as more and more freight was lost to trucks.
"In general, people model what they see/saw during their teens and twenties etc... those formative years."
Respectfully I would ask how you know this to be true of all, or even most, individuals?
Because that is how you feel? Guess what some of us are different.
As as been pointed out is this discussion by myself and others, things like an interest in WWI or the Civil War or other earlier history seem to be very strong dispite the fact that every one who experianced them as young adults are long gone.
Some types of people just get hooked on history. I could go into some deeper thoughts on personally types, but this is likely not the place.
Fact is people that do not have that strong interest in history, DO DEFINE a lot about their lives based on their teen and young adult years.
But peole who are into history see the world as a place much bigger than their own experiances, and tend to see the world as more "timeless".
It is my personal view that human nature is a constant in the universe, both the good and the bad of it. And that it shifts left or right, but never changes much. People 100 years ago, or 500 years ago, were just as smart, just insightfull, just as "inlightened" as we think we are today. Personally I think Jefferson, Hamilton and Adam Smith were likely smarter than all of academia today on matters of human nature.
I grew up in the late 60's and early 70's - that is the LAST era I would ever consider modeling.
I model the early 50's - 4-5 years before I was born. My next two railroad eras of interest are the 1920's and the Civil War.
The newest model loco I own in term of its prototype - two SD9's - newly delivered from LaGrande.
My other interests in HISTORY - Architecture, I live in a 1901 Queen Anne - not a 70's rancher, My favorite cars are the '58 Impala, '48 Tucker and Model A Fords, not a "69 Camaro. I find the late 1800's to be most interesting in terms of culture and industry.
Back in maybe the late 1970's Model Railroader did a survey of MR readers or subscribers and as I recall came out with a result that the average age of their readers was about 38, and the most commonly modeled era was the 1950's, which they noted meant most modelers were modeling what was going on in their teen years. They wondered if that trend would continue, or if it was just that so many people liked modeling the transition era.
I suspect the answer is kind of "yes" to both. There are always going to be some people who model "today", some people who model things they saw in their youth, and some who model things they're too young to have seen (but wish they had). Therefore I imagine there will always be people modeling the steam or transition eras, but it's numbers may become smaller over time, just as I'm sure the number of people modeling 1900 has gone down as we get further away from that time.
Though there are people who come in and say they were born after steam was gone from the rails yet still model it, that isn't a statistic, it's just a voice or few voices which don't suddenly make steam a popular item.
Probably a more useful indicator of whether the claim that modeling steam is fading out of the hobby are metrics, numbers which tell the story, not forum posts. I imagine the manufacturers can tell you alot more telling information here.
It does seem logical that as the generations which lived to see steam operating with their own eye's are dying out there will be fewer people modeling steam. I realize there are a few folks who were born after steam was gone from mainline service, but they logically are a small minority. In general, people model what they see/saw during their teens and twenties etc... those formative years. It's certainly true for me although I know personally of a few folks who are of similar age but backdated to steam/diesel transition. In my case, I too have backdated my interests, somewhat to my teen and child hood years with the help of some DVD's and books which have given me a window into the years of the 1960's and 1970's.
Rio Grande. The Action Road - Focus 1977-1983
selector UP 4-12-2: ... If it didn't sell they wouldn't be making steam power. It sells (check out MB Klein's current inventory--the steam is virtually cleaned out right now--and it's not that they didn't have much in stock, because they had plenty just recently--the stuff actually sells). ... John There is little inventory because so little steam has been released in the past year. What has been released has limited appeal, or would merely duplicate what collectors/users have cobbled together in the past five years or so, and few of us are willing to do that. Crandell
UP 4-12-2: ... If it didn't sell they wouldn't be making steam power. It sells (check out MB Klein's current inventory--the steam is virtually cleaned out right now--and it's not that they didn't have much in stock, because they had plenty just recently--the stuff actually sells). ... John
...
If it didn't sell they wouldn't be making steam power. It sells (check out MB Klein's current inventory--the steam is virtually cleaned out right now--and it's not that they didn't have much in stock, because they had plenty just recently--the stuff actually sells).
There is little inventory because so little steam has been released in the past year. What has been released has limited appeal, or would merely duplicate what collectors/users have cobbled together in the past five years or so, and few of us are willing to do that.
Crandell,
I'm not sure were to start here, but I do agree with John on this. You seem to have that short term kind of thinking on this that supports the limited run, collector, consumerisum thinking that suugests that unless manufcturers provide a steady stream of "NEW" items, interest in the hobby, or steam locos will somehow die?
I would suggest just the opposite.
Making products constantly available - or at least re-issuing them on a regular basis, keeps the interest of new people fueled becasue there is a sense that they will be able to aquire the models they want. And that those who do not get one (or 6) the first time will be able to get more later.
If new hobbiests, young or old, feel like they "missed" those items that interest them most, that is bad for the hobby. It is especially bad for those that would move into more "serious" modeling activities were product selection is based on matching a set layout theme and era, rather than just collecting and running trains.
Based on my years in the hobby and selling model trains, those hobbiests with the more serious interests and goals, stay with the hobby longer, buy more stuff over their lifetimes, and thereby spend more money.
Even in todays market conditions, or maybe because of them, re-issuing previously made models is good business.
F7's and USRA 2-8-2 continue to sell - so do Big Boy's and PRR K4's.
Sure I would like to see some stuff that has not been made, but not at the expense of loosing basic "commodity" models that each new generation of models is likely to want.
When I sold MATCO tools, their market research showed that the average auto mechanic only works with his tools for 7 years, then moves up or out of the trade. Few sell their tools. You do the math.
I suggest this hobby in not much different in that even those who loose interest seldom sell off their models. And regardless of how much used stuff is out there, many people like myself don't/won't buy much used - no matter its condition or quality.
I will repeat my earlier thought - this is not about steam or diesel or young or old. Some people CHOOSE HISTORY, some people are bored to tears by history and model TODAY. And it will always be that way.
My point about the Civil war recreations, was to point out that generations later, people are still interested in something that they weren't around to experience. I think it's a valid point.
The model steam market surely won't be the same in 40 or 50 years, but there will still be a demand for steam. Maybe more along the line of small brass runs instead of mass produced models, but there will still be a demand. Who knows what the future will bring. Maybe by then, we'll be able to download blueprints from the internet and "print" a high quality model at home.
Crandell,I know of one shop that has one steam locomotive in stock and that was due to a cancellation..According to the owner steam locomotives won't sell locally because they are to expensive.
That may be true enough at full MSRP but,some Spectrum steamers sells for around $100.00 or less if one cares to shop around on e-Bay and the internet.
In this computer age one can't get a real handle on the steam market unless he can get hold of HO steam locomotive marketing information and as we know that is confidential information.
Apparently Bachmann sees a market for their steamers.
Interesting opinions on the demise of model steam locomotives, although I don´t share some of the views.
Steam makes our hobby much more appealing, also to youngsters, than those box-like and look-alike modern Diesels. I understand that quite a number of folks in here complain about the industry not releasing the "right" locomotive in the market and only looking at marketing those landmark steamers, like the Big Boy etc. We should not forget that it is those locomotives which draw the attention of non-hobbyists. Who knows, one or two may join us in our quest to re-enact a little bit our our heritage.
Steam is dead - long live steam!
About the niches, I think few of us would argue that they tend to hang on. However, you can't conclude that today's steam market is a niche the way re-enacting Civil War events in period costumes is a niche. Which has the real 'market' with manufactured goods exchanged for money? I think those of us who are arguing about the demise of model steam are saying that there won't be a market to speak of in 40-50 years once fewer live-steam engines are running and many times fewer men (mostly) are still alive who can describe what their experience with steam was/is. How big is the Model T and era market? A walk through Wal Mart of your local hobby shop should help you with that answer.
UP 4-12-2 ... If it didn't sell they wouldn't be making steam power. It sells (check out MB Klein's current inventory--the steam is virtually cleaned out right now--and it's not that they didn't have much in stock, because they had plenty just recently--the stuff actually sells). ... John
onequiknova People will always want to recreate history. It's in our nature. Sure, the numbers will dwindle as time goes on, but there will always be that niche.
That is my point, every era is a niche, just some niches are larger than others. The niches may start out larger and then become smaller as other niches siphon off people until it reaches the point where people are modeling it because they LIKE the era.
For example I am in my mid fifties (I never saw a steam engine in revenue service) but I model the 1900 era. Why? Because I like it.
Of the 20 or so modelers in the area that actively model and operate, of the ones that operate steam, none are in there 70's.
Dave H. Painted side goes up. My website : wnbranch.com
dehusman The second thing that people forget is that USRA cars, F units and 40 ft boxcars pretty much were gone by the mid 1970's. That means that anybody who is 35 or older has never seen F units and 40 ft boxcars.
The second thing that people forget is that USRA cars, F units and 40 ft boxcars pretty much were gone by the mid 1970's. That means that anybody who is 35 or older has never seen F units and 40 ft boxcars.
There's exceptions to everything. I've seen operational F7s in mainline freight service and I'm 30. A few even survived until around 2002, as drones on ore docks in Ohio.
I also remember seeing a few 40' boxcars with BUY WAR BONDS on the side in the late 80s.
I used to play around in the "live steam" part of the hobby since the age of 14.......
I also had spent 8 months at the Strasburg RR.......
Steam is a P I T A to work on .....maintain, operate, repair, etc. In any scale or gauge.
Yeah.......its on the way out.
Dennis Blank Jr.
CEO,COO,CFO,CMO,Bossman,Slavedriver,Engineer,Trackforeman,Grunt. Birdsboro & Reading Railroad
richhotrain When you say that you know "a lot of modelers who model steam who are a lot younger than that", how many? Probably just a few. What I find amusing is that some people who experience something contemporary cannot imagine it passing or fading away. Just remember that at one time the largest publicly traded company in the world was United States Leather Company. It is no longer with us. Rich
25-50 years out, maybe the F-series, the GP's and even the AC's models will be "outdated".
Fifty years from now the mainlines may be electrified "bullet" type loco trains or even all MAGLEVS as the real 1:1 trains then may be!!!
So then, maybe the steam will be relegated to the "collector's series" of those units already built, but maybe not. There may be a few small specialist model steam loco makers...
Then again, they are looking into whether 1:1 steam can be brought back, "increase its efficiency" and fire it with a better "non-polluting fuel" and make IT work better than the current diesel-electrics!
We Don't know what the future will hold.
I really thoroughly enjoy 1:1 steam, I like the movement of its working parts visible on the outside. I like the siderods and air pumps. I enjoy the thumps and noises of the airpumps.I LOVE the Chuff! You don't find all that with the diesels...you just get a constant rumble {loud or louder} and hiss.
If you look around, there aren't too many buggy makers, though if you searched hard enough, or sought out Amish communities, you might find someone who still makes buggies for horses like those of the 1800's days before cars. But they aren't sold on every street corner.
So no, steam may not disappear, steam may live on, but it will decrease as the new 1:1s take over the model industry..if IT in fact survives? I think so.
Ultimately, Whatever the manufacturer makes and whatever that sells for them to make money, will dictate more likely what will be on the "virtual shelves of virtual hobby shops" of the future.
ANd in 50 years I will most very likely be dead and won't care.
-G .
Just my thoughts, ideas, opinions and experiences. Others may vary.
HO and N Scale.
After long and careful thought, they have convinced me. I have come to the conclusion that they are right. The aliens did it.
dehusman The problem I have with the "steam will die out because people haven't seen it in real life" arguement is that real steam operation really died out in most of the country in the early 1950's. Assuming you had to be at least 5 or 6 to even remember it, probably 10-12 to understand it, that would mean that the "people who remember steam" would have to be in their 60-'s to 70's. I know a lot of modelers who model steam who are a lot younger than that. That means they DON'T remember steam and are modeling it. The second thing that people forget is that USRA cars, F units and 40 ft boxcars pretty much were gone by the mid 1970's. That means that anybody who is 35 or older has never seen F units and 40 ft boxcars. Does that mean the 1960's will also fade away? Don't think that's happening. What I see is that railroads have a fixed start time, the 1830's and the civil war seems to be about the practical limit. So in 1950 there was 90 years of railroad history from which you could choose. Today there is about 140 years of railroad history to model. What is happening is that with more eras to model all the eras get fewer people modeling them as a percentage of all modelers
The problem I have with the "steam will die out because people haven't seen it in real life" arguement is that real steam operation really died out in most of the country in the early 1950's. Assuming you had to be at least 5 or 6 to even remember it, probably 10-12 to understand it, that would mean that the "people who remember steam" would have to be in their 60-'s to 70's. I know a lot of modelers who model steam who are a lot younger than that. That means they DON'T remember steam and are modeling it.
The second thing that people forget is that USRA cars, F units and 40 ft boxcars pretty much were gone by the mid 1970's. That means that anybody who is 35 or older has never seen F units and 40 ft boxcars. Does that mean the 1960's will also fade away? Don't think that's happening.
What I see is that railroads have a fixed start time, the 1830's and the civil war seems to be about the practical limit. So in 1950 there was 90 years of railroad history from which you could choose. Today there is about 140 years of railroad history to model. What is happening is that with more eras to model all the eras get fewer people modeling them as a percentage of all modelers