rrebell I just thought, show me documentation that the hobby is declining!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I just thought, show me documentation that the hobby is declining!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Wouldn't work. Nobody believes in the data-----
Any argument carried far enough will end up in Semantics--Hartz's law of rhetoric Emerald. Leemer and Southern The route of the Sceptre Express Barry
I just started my blog site...more stuff to come...
http://modeltrainswithmusic.blogspot.ca/
Oh I would beleive it but it has to be hard numbers!!!!!!!!!!!! Most of what you see as decline are surveys of people that belong to the NMRA and such, your average modeler dose not belong to them and many never have. What you see out there is change and we are into even bigger changes in the near future and they will come faster and faster.
That is true, almost all of the value in being a part of the NMRA and getting model railroader has been replaced by the internet. This is a nice forum and all, but there a bunch out there just as good that don't require a subscription.
I won't mention the competition (don't want this thread locked) but there is even an online mag for free that is very good.
It looks like this tread lost it's air brakes a long time a go, better get ready to jump before it comes to the bottom of the grade..............lol
rrebell Oh I would beleive it but it has to be hard numbers!!!!!!!!!!!! Most of what you see as decline are surveys of people that belong to the NMRA and such, your average modeler dose not belong to them and many never have. What you see out there is change and we are into even bigger changes in the near future and they will come faster and faster.
I suggest that you go back and look up some of the extensive threads that addressed this subject and to which I supplied pages of cited, verifiable, information. Nobody here bothers to do research, but are overly willing to offer contrary baseless opinion without end. The real information is out there...one only needs to carefully look for and then accept it.
CNJ831
CNJ831 rrebell Oh I would beleive it but it has to be hard numbers!!!!!!!!!!!! Most of what you see as decline are surveys of people that belong to the NMRA and such, your average modeler dose not belong to them and many never have. What you see out there is change and we are into even bigger changes in the near future and they will come faster and faster. I suggest that you go back and look up some of the extensive threads that addressed this subject and to which I supplied pages of cited, verifiable, information. Nobody here bothers to do research, but are overly willing to offer contrary baseless opinion without end. The real information is out there...one only needs to carefully look for and then accept it. CNJ831
EDIT: rrebell, type "hobby dying" without quotes into the Search Community box, you'll see the threads
The only way any of this becomes relevant to the original topic is if manufacturers are considering the shrinking or growing number of modelers in their strategic plan. I've replied to previous threads on this topic and while I may not entirely agree with CNJ831, he is absolutely correct in that most of us putting more feeling than fact (guilty as charged) into our responses. In the end, it really doesn't matter what the hobby is doing as long as there are people willing to take the chance on producing stuff for it.
Manufacturers come and go, some evolve, some get absorbed into other compaines. It is not unique to the model railroad world. While there are some examples of companies that continue to hang on with their existing products and methods, they usually represent a very small share in the overall market. For whatever reason, some companies have figured that kits still fit into their strategic plan while others have gone strictly RTR. There are many smaller companies making kits, most very speciallized and small runs resulting in kits that cost as much as RTR.
If you want relatively low cost, highly detailed and made in the USA (or whatever country you hail from), I would recommend scratchbuilding. Boxcars, flat cars, reefers some hopper/covered hoppers and gondolas can be made from sheet/strip styrene, commercial doors, wire, commercial trucks and couplers and other commercial superdetailing parts if you don't want to make them yourself. Tank cars, hoppers, covered hoppers (like center flow) and others may be a bit tougher due to complex curves and such but not impossible. Plans are out there in print, on the internet or can be derived from photos. Paint is readily available as are most decals, but if not, make you're own.
Finally, if your happy with minimal detail, great, if you want more detail, be prepared to pay a little more. If you need to change and adapt to the changing hobby, welcome to the world as it is constantly changing and evolving (or devolving)
Ricky
Well I did as you suggested and only found out about the state of hobby shops in Arkansas (which is good by the way). The only other hard facts I could find out there were the new conventions opening up to more and more people every year and the decline of companies like Gats but they were their own worst enemy as I have dealt directly with them and they didn't want to change! I thought they had died completely but it seams that they are still around only much smaller and another company is slowly grabbing their old territory. The reason Gats died is 4 or 5 things, First table prices doubled, additional fees doubled (less tables, less people like me bottom feeding), second ticket prices doubled and parking fees went up sometimes with no outside parking. I mean at the last show I went to a friend who had a table paid $75.00 a table for two tables, luckily he did not need power as that is a $75.00 fee or more as union people have to run the extension cord (plug in and drop a cord from above) on top of that $8-10 to park (forgot which was correct for this show) but no free parking for vendors like there used to be.
And don't get me started on idiot vendors at swap meets.
So does pricing your product ever higher in an attempt to find out what is the absolute maximum the traffic will bear. When the big boys with all that supposed business sense, but no understanding of, or really caring about, the hobbyist, allow prices to soar beyond the point of no return and it all comes tumbling down, look for them to leave the shambles and convert to the manufacture of electric razors, or something similar without caring, or missing a beat.
So you've got hard evidence that this is the ultimate goal of the the "big boys" is to charge all the traffic will bear? Do hobby industrry "whistle blowers' have you on speed dial and you're privy to the conspiracy? As for the manufacture of electric razors, I doubt it. The big boys who do that would make sure an upstart attempt from a collapsing BLI, MTH or Athearn failed out of the chute. In any case, if the hobby manufacturers fail, who's going to provide the capital to go into another line of business??
You're basing this so call lack of understanding of the hobbyist on what? There is more being produced in more variety in more scales now than at any time in the past. We have stuff available to us now that we wouldn't even dare dream about not all that long ago. Back when I bought my first piece of rolling stock, only Silver Streak made anything that remotely looked like a prototype SP caboose. Now I can get correct SP cabooses in multiple classes in both RTR and kits in multiple scales. 'Course, I'll pay more than $40 for the kits (e.g. AMB, TraincCat), but these aren't the big boys, so maybe it's the boutique suppliers who are trying to kill the hobby. Either that or they're fellow travelers in the vast conspiracy to bankrupt the poor modeler.
You also seem to forget is that old time modelers weren't all that up to speed on the prototype. I don't have the issue handy, but someone wrote in MR many years ago that he was surprised to find that a lot of model railroaders weren't even interested in the prototype. I don't mean that they weren't interested in a given railroad, but they weren't interested at all in real railroads, they just liked miniature trains.
It's kind of ironic that an N scaler has to pay well over $40 for a TrainCat C30-5/6 caboose kit (less trucks, couplers and undecorated to boot) but Athearn will supply RTR models of the C50-7/8/9 cabeese for an MSRP of $29.98. The problem, of course, is that the C50 series cabooses aren't suitable for the transition era, so there's no substitution. 'Course, if I were a conspiracy theorist, I'd insist that Athearn is trying to kill off transition era modeling in N with their N scale RTR offerings that undercut available N scale transition era rolling stock kits. For that matter, Walther's Platinum Line RTR SP C30-1 caboose is cheaper than AMB's kit for the same thing. So who's the one gouging the poor hobbyist?
You want to go around chanting lamentations and wearing sackcloth and ashes because (SURPRISE!!) things change, knock your socks off. Me, I'm still pinching myself because I'm still a kid in a candy store only it's one that's orders of magnitude bigger and better than it was 50 years ago. I don't want a generic"SP Caboose", I want an SP C30-5 bay window caboose and I want it as it appeared in 1949, not as it appeared post-1955 with the orange ends and the Gothic lettering. . Kits are available and Micro-Scale's got the correct decals. 50 years ago, that kind of choice didn't exist. People are lot more savvy about prototype railroading today, even the free-lancers like Sheldon who, even if they model a totally fictional line, will want to do it in a manner that doesn't stretch plausibility to the breaking point and beyond. If this is detrimental to the hobby, then let's work harder to "kill" it.
Andre
Once again, Andre, you post a very wordy but essentially questionable series of comparisons in some sort of attempt to make a point. I would only ask that you actually take the time to research and evaluate the actual situations and conditions, rather than simply either pulling up odd items as supposed examples, or presenting half truths. Still, I'll make the gesture of responding to your post.
Locomotive prices of new models have steadily increased almost yearly since the early 2000's and at a rate far exceeding any supposed (but honestly in no way applicable) inflation figures. In addition, the types of steam locomotives being produced are almost all very large, top-of-the-line-expensive, types...the sort that "collectors" buy, but which are largely unsuitable for application to the average layout. Switchers and locos of more modest wheel arrangement would have all but disappeared from the marketplace in the last few years were it not for Bachmann. When a market shrinks, one of the obvious approaches to maintaining your cash flow is to aim your product at the remaining wealthy segment and steadily jack up your prices. And, yes, I do have some contacts within the industry and I can tell you that you've only begun to see where prices are going.
As to hobbyists today being so sophisticated about prototypes and so on, guess again. The vast majority of hobbyists seem to know mainly only what they are told is, or isn't, correct about a given model by a handful of Internet gurus. Just peruse the threads and posts that one finds on the more popular forums and this becomes dramatically obvious. I'd venture that there is little more individual prototype sophistication abroad today among hobbyists than there was a quarter century ago.
Concerning the supposed array of products you talk about available today as far exceeding that in the past, have you honestly tried to buy most of them? If you had, you'd find that, because of limited runs, most are currently no longer available at local venues, even just a few months following their issue date. On paper there's a broad selection, but not in a buying reality. Just try running the pages of the on-line Walthers and see what's actually in-stock. A huge percentage is either OOP, or arrival date unknown. In relation to this, you say that you are like a kid in a candy store with all that is being offered, yet by your own admission you've previously indicated that you are a non-modeler. So are you actually buying anything and if not, how does your statement make any sense?
As I've said before, I'm no doom and gloomer, I simply deal in realities, statistics and trends and what they indicate, but I do see most hobbyists as painfully ignorant of any accurate information regarding the current state of the hobby, as well as its past. There's also a strange and all-pervasive Pollyanna outlook on the situation among hobbyists that prevents most of them from accepting the true state of affairs when it's presented.
Incidentally, with regard to the electric razors, when Lawrence Cowen left Lionel in its death throes, he moved on to a position with a nationally known electric razor manufacturer. He indicated that there was little difference between the business of making and selling model trains and electric razors, with many of the parts even coming from the same outlets. Don't be so foolish as to think that at least some today's larger companies couldn't make some sort of similar transitions to another product line if things really started falling apart.
RedGrey62EDIT: rrebell, type "hobby dying" without quotes into the Search Community box, you'll see the threads The only way any of this becomes relevant to the original topic is if manufacturers are considering the shrinking or growing number of modelers in their strategic plan...... In the end, it really doesn't matter what the hobby is doing as long as there are people willing to take the chance on producing stuff for it.Ricky
The only way any of this becomes relevant to the original topic is if manufacturers are considering the shrinking or growing number of modelers in their strategic plan...... In the end, it really doesn't matter what the hobby is doing as long as there are people willing to take the chance on producing stuff for it.
Some important words of wisdom, since very few of us serve as strategic planners for any of the model railroading manufacturers.
And CNJ and Andre continue to talk past each other. Andre is talking production of cars and structures; CNJ is talking mass model locomotive production.
On the much lamented and discussed small steam locomotive front, I would suggest that a couple of trends have occurred. This is based on reading between the lines, observations of the market and three better-stocked LHS.
as always, my thoughts, your choices
Fred W
Fred - I do largely agree with nearly all of what you posted, but I do see a number of significant caveats involved.
I can't speak to what goes on in N-gauge, but with regard to HO, while it's possibly true that in the past some hobbyists switched from steamers to diesels for better operating characteristics, in the last decade I've seen a decided back-dating shift in motivepower on the layouts of more serious hobbyists, making steamers and modeling the transition era more popular than ever.
Whether, or not, modelers today care about prototypical accuracy clearly does influence what people buy, what companies offer and at what price they sell items for. Demand, based a great deal on Internet peer pressure, for accurate models justifies increasingly limited runs and ever higher selling prices by the manufacturers.
While the "biggest and baddest" steamers were around until the demise of steam on some of the giant class 1 railroads, so were much smaller wheel arrangements on a vastly larger number of the smaller class 1 and 2 roads. I'd speculate that 90% of layouts today are far too small to realistically represent operation with huge steamers and actually cry out for more reasonably-sized locomotives, The huge steam offered today is directly aimed at the increasing percentage (relative to actual modelers) of non-modeling collectors in the hobby. How often do we see images of large rosters of locomotives - all sitting on just a table or plywood board - posted here? Remember the fella with the 23 Big Boys, or several folks with 100+ diesel rosters and essentially no layouts?
Before closing this post, I would like to also expand on your statement: The reduction in roster growth will also put renewed emphasis on prototypical accuracy - a repeat of the brass "industry". This is indeed exactly how the hobby's future is going to unfold, as I've pointed out a number of times previously. And prototypical accuracy will justify ever increasing prices, too. Especially recall just how the brass segment of the hobby played out over the years. Once a major part of the HO hobby, producing thousands of models, it has today almost ceased to exist for the mainstream of the hobby. What do posters think the fate of the HO hobby will be when plastic diesels reach $500 per and steamers $1,000 not all that many years from now? It's not a pretty picture.
The market will dictate where prices go. Bottom line is the manufacturers will push their margins as hard as they can. It's what people are willing to pay that dictates the price. In the end, the things that will keep the hobby alive are started trains sets and good ole Thomas. As long as people can get in the hobby like most here did, by getting that first train set as a kid, there will be model railroading. If prices for locomotives continue to rise, it will be because of inflation, but the relative price compared to other items will be the same IMO.
Springfield PA
CNJ831Before closing this post, I would like to also expand on your statement: The reduction in roster growth will also put renewed emphasis on prototypical accuracy - a repeat of the brass "industry". This is indeed exactly how the hobby's future is going to unfold, as I've pointed out a number of times previously. And prototypical accuracy will justify ever increasing prices, too. Especially recall just how the brass segment of the hobby played out over the years. Once a major part of the HO hobby, producing thousands of models, it has today almost ceased to exist for the mainstream of the hobby. What do posters think the fate of the HO hobby will be when plastic diesels reach $500 per and steamers $1,000 not all that many years from now? It's not a pretty picture. CNJ831
This is indeed exactly how the hobby's future is going to unfold, as I've pointed out a number of times previously. And prototypical accuracy will justify ever increasing prices, too. Especially recall just how the brass segment of the hobby played out over the years. Once a major part of the HO hobby, producing thousands of models, it has today almost ceased to exist for the mainstream of the hobby. What do posters think the fate of the HO hobby will be when plastic diesels reach $500 per and steamers $1,000 not all that many years from now? It's not a pretty picture.
CNJ
I don't think the end of the world will happen for the hobby. Yes, the rich choice of RTR locomotives will eventually disappear. In my world, it never has been there. Kids, other priorities, and not being high enough on the economic ladder always kept brass just out of my reach. I might buy one $300 locomotive every 2-3 years, and then it has to be exactly what I want for my layout to justify that money. A backdated Blackstone C-16 might get my lust going enough to act upon. As great as they are, new brass Shays at $700+ don't turn me on enough to ditch building my Keystone and MDC Shays.
The costs of scale 3 rail O chased me into just O27 and the more toy-like stuff until I tired of RTR and the kids were old enough to want different hobbies, too.
Now in HO and HOn3, the most I have paid for a locomotive was $150 for an HOn3 FED 2-6-0, with another $150 in remotoring, new drive, and detail parts. All the rest have been $125 or less, including the drive changes (Keystone Shays, Model Power Baldwins, MDC and Tyco loco kits). My roster is less than 10, and is likely to remain that way, with replacement on a 1 for 1basis when something better comes along and my wallet permits.
In the meantime, the proliferation of new accurate car kits for my era from small manufacturers has more than made up for the demise of the Roundhouse OT series kits. Yes, the new kits total $30 to $40 when trucks and couplers and paint are added - but how many do I need? If I had a large enough layout to need a roster of 100 cars, price per kit would be a concern. But so would time for the craftsman kits or scratch-building for a large roster.
And I think that's where the rising prices will have the most impact - the number of basement filling layouts that depend on RTR to get to operations with 3 years. In the 1950s, small HO layouts were much more common than they are today - and they were even featured in the photos in MR. Both prices and time to build everything prevented "everybody" from filling a room or basement. For many in the hobby since 1990, money has not been the limitation on layout size - time and space have been. In the future, money will again become a limiting factor for many more than it is today.
Finally, my cloudy crystal ball says there will be one more stab at mass production in another country besides China. I doubt it will be India; several have tried and failed there already. Each cycle of mass production, followed by rising prices, has been shorter and shorter. The Italian craftsmen lasted for several decades. The Japanese brass model worked well for 20 years. Korean brass and plastic was much shorter lived. Chinese plastic has been going strong for about 15 years, lasting longer because a prolonged US economic boom accommodated doubling of prices without much complaint. I give Chinese mass production perhaps another 5 years before production shifts to Viet Nam or gives up.
again my opinions are just that
fwrightFinally, my cloudy crystal ball says there will be one more stab at mass production in another country besides China. I doubt it will be India; several have tried and failed there already. Each cycle of mass production, followed by rising prices, has been shorter and shorter. The Italian craftsmen lasted for several decades. The Japanese brass model worked well for 20 years. Korean brass and plastic was much shorter lived. Chinese plastic has been going strong for about 15 years, lasting longer because a prolonged US economic boom accommodated doubling of prices without much complaint. I give Chinese mass production perhaps another 5 years before production shifts to Viet Nam or gives up.
It may very well be in Viet Nam---or---someplace in Africa. If it does give up it will just fold up; and go to razor blades----
I always wondered about why more manufacturing had not gone to Africa, I guess it has just not been stable enough. I know some takes place in Mexico but you would think it would be more. I think the last couple of posts really start to nail down where the hobby is going. Just from my perspective of buying, except for a few items, most of what I have purchased in the last 10 year has not been new as in not purchased from a LHS or Internet store but from people changing scales, thinning rosters, bad gifts, something they bought as part of something else, family problems. I have a pile of never out of the box (except by me) hobby stuff, Proto 2000 engines and cars and lots of other stuff of similar qualities. Once I finish my layout I will be thinning out my collection for sure, it is a large layout but how many billboard reefers do I need (have over 30 atlas).
blownout cylinder It may very well be in Viet Nam---or---someplace in Africa. If it does give up it will just fold up; and go to razor blades----
Locomotive building requires skilled labor at very low wages relative to the US. It is not easily learned or taught, as experiences with trying to set up locomotive production in India and Brazil have shown. Italy and Japan had a cultural history of fine hand work with jeweler like precision. But they also had a willingness to learn and do something beside traditional jewelry and crafts. Even then, initial locomotive production from Italy (remember Aristo-Craft?), Japan (very early brass), Korea, and even China was little better than trainset junk. Quality improved dramatically and fairly quickly; they had to to survive. For plastic and die-cast production, you also need skilled die cutters, again at low wages.
When MPC owned Lionel in the 1970s they made an attempt to move production to Mexico with unskilled labor. It was a dismal failure due to output quality that was too crummy to sell. After a little over a year, production was moved back to Michigan, where it stayed until the 1990s. Lionel was finally forced to move production to Korea and China because its competitors were eating Lionel's lunch.
I'm not familiar enough with Africa to state with certainty, but I don't believe the required infrastructure and culture exists there. South America and Latin America might be more successful, but I'm not sure the wage differential is great enough any more.
just anecdotal evidence to support my conclusions
How many versions of say, the Dash 9 were there? Basically 1.
SD60? essentially 3 Spartan, 3 window and 2 window.
The SD40-2 is pretty much the last loco that had significant variety with 3 reasonably distinct phases (ignoring angled blower duct) and multiple nose lengths. Yet even so, the Blue Box SD40-2 is a great compromise. Upgrading it with snoot or backdating the grills, or adding Q-fans and an exhaust silencer are all very doable upgrades.
Air Conditioners, GPS domes, specific Horns and horn locations. I don't see a need to make that part of the RTR market.
And to be fair, these models haven't gone away. There are still there and being mass produced, they're just RTR now with a higher price.