Well...! Aren't you a wet blanket, Andre? And here we were having such a robust discussion until you had to throw cold water over everything.
Geeeeez!
BTW, there is a newly launched thread over in Classic Toy Trains...maybe they were looking in? Perhaps they'll inject some new life into the horse so that we can continue to club it.
Hello everyone,
So, I'm not wondering that the hobbyist like me, living outside US. (I'm from Thailand. )
If i have a very nice layout like you guys, i must be a millionaire, i guess. And we don't have much to choose, as well.
The taxation here is highly charged. That is why this hobby is not successful in Thailand.
However, i'm very happy for what i can get.
andrechapelon wrote: For all the moaning, kvetching, bellyaching about hobby prices that goes on here (usually at least twice a month or more), you'd think someone would post something about the relative price of items way back when.
For all the moaning, kvetching, bellyaching about hobby prices that goes on here (usually at least twice a month or more), you'd think someone would post something about the relative price of items way back when.
The real problem is that very, very few know and can cite the full evolution of hobby pricing over the years. So, these discussions always end up with some poster giving examples at the extremes, rather than over the course of time...just as Andre has done here.
You want expensive? Go back just before the war and find the price of a RTR locomotive. They were $200-$300 1940 dollars from a custom builder! Neither is it fair to attempt to adjust rising hobby prices by the CPI, as its basis is on a group of necessities, not luxury items. If you look at the relative prices of luxury items (which model trains certainly are) you'll usually find that they've increased by less than half the CPI over the decades. Further, right after the war (circa 1950) HO locomotive prices were still high and just beginning to decline. If you know your hobby history in detail, then you will be aware that the great era of low cost model railroading was during the 1970's and through the early 1980's, when prices remained almost static (and before beginning their dramatic rise in the early 1990's).
It is similarly nonsensical to say look how much more you are getting for your money today, compared to 1950. Have some of you never heard of progress? Any sensible person expects a product to improve with time, not stay static. It would be absurd to expect an item not to improve greatly as technology advances over the decades. What you are getting today is no better, relative to the level of available technology, than that of 50 years ago. The only fair comparison of pricing would be in items that are at the top and/or bottom of the various product lines between eras. If you do that (relative to the CPI, if you must), then it becomes clear that the hobby is now more expensive than at just about any other period in the last five decades.
CNJ831
CNJ, the characteristics and added improvements that you cite had to come at an inflated cost as time went by because labour costs arose, as did those of the materials to produce the improvements and additions, and then the costs to install them once they were available after the costly developmental phase. So, of course we have heard of progress, but you can't simply discount its inherent costs because they are meant to be factored into a realistic price for what we purchase...otherwise the items would actually be cheaper with inflation factored in...which incidentally was the point in Andre's post; with all these gains, and taking into account the costs to get them, these comparatively favourable improvements seem to have cost nothing if the prices are compared on a dollar for dollar value basis.
We should not forget other market forces, such as the relative patronage of the hobby on a per-capita basis. It is conceivable that the numbers participating in the hobby were higher than they are now, so the cost-per-unit price over the numbers produced will have to be absorbed by a relatively smaller number of participants. This should drive unit prices up. Yet, depending on your view of the way to compare the two eras fairly, the prices don't seem to reflect that.
I really think we don't have the right information to be making these arguments.
selector wrote: Grog wrote: I really have to speak my mind here...With 28 years of Auto/Light truck experience I can tell you, for a fact, we (mechanics)are underpaid. We buy our own tools (I personally have about $50,000 in tools). We get the snot beat out of us everyday. We literally bleed from doing our job. No one is happy to see us. In the northeast of Ohio we have to deal with temperatures ranging from sub-zero to over 95 degrees. Rain, snow, road salt, and even dead animals that people have hit or run over. We use torches to burn off rusted and siezed bolts, exhaust systems, and parts that no longer have a hex head from all the corrosion all the while breathing in noxious fumes and dealing with fluids that cause cancer. My back is shot , wrists have carpal tunnel, knees and feet are always sore, hands are a little arthritec, hearing is going and to top it all off....we get paid less...let me repeat that...less than any other trade.I personally make $22.50 an hour, pay part of my medical insurance and have to make my own retirement plans. I am also at the top of my field with no major raises in sight. A top technician will earn from $20.00-$25.00. I can not even afford to purchase one of the new vehicles I repair. We fix the things that the engineers did not design right, the manufacturers did not build right and the assemblers did not put together right. We fix them. I do not complain about my job..it is what I chose. This is not meant to be harsh so please do not take it that way. Yes, it is expensive to have your vehicle fixed but believe me when I tell you that it is going to get way worse. The old timers are getting out and no one is replacing them. Who would do this job for that kind of pay/benefit. A dealer charges $90.00 an hour and the tech gets about 1/4 of that.I have never sounded off like this before and appologize if it is inappropriate but people really have no idea what a technician does.I do agree that model trains are getting expensive but no more so than anything else.Grog, you have generated what I feel is one of the most eloquent compositions this forum has ever received in the nearly three years that I have been a member. Thank-you for posting your thoughts....very nicely stated, and it has given me a new understanding and appreciation for your trade.I think One Track Mind was not suggesting that his observation is true, but used it as an illustration about complaining, in general. Perhaps he will return and offer his own explanation...paticularly if I misspeak on his behalf.In any event, I understand your statement, and why you made it, and it was most well said.-Crandell
Grog wrote: I really have to speak my mind here...With 28 years of Auto/Light truck experience I can tell you, for a fact, we (mechanics)are underpaid. We buy our own tools (I personally have about $50,000 in tools). We get the snot beat out of us everyday. We literally bleed from doing our job. No one is happy to see us. In the northeast of Ohio we have to deal with temperatures ranging from sub-zero to over 95 degrees. Rain, snow, road salt, and even dead animals that people have hit or run over. We use torches to burn off rusted and siezed bolts, exhaust systems, and parts that no longer have a hex head from all the corrosion all the while breathing in noxious fumes and dealing with fluids that cause cancer. My back is shot , wrists have carpal tunnel, knees and feet are always sore, hands are a little arthritec, hearing is going and to top it all off....we get paid less...let me repeat that...less than any other trade.I personally make $22.50 an hour, pay part of my medical insurance and have to make my own retirement plans. I am also at the top of my field with no major raises in sight. A top technician will earn from $20.00-$25.00. I can not even afford to purchase one of the new vehicles I repair. We fix the things that the engineers did not design right, the manufacturers did not build right and the assemblers did not put together right. We fix them. I do not complain about my job..it is what I chose. This is not meant to be harsh so please do not take it that way. Yes, it is expensive to have your vehicle fixed but believe me when I tell you that it is going to get way worse. The old timers are getting out and no one is replacing them. Who would do this job for that kind of pay/benefit. A dealer charges $90.00 an hour and the tech gets about 1/4 of that.I have never sounded off like this before and appologize if it is inappropriate but people really have no idea what a technician does.I do agree that model trains are getting expensive but no more so than anything else.
I really have to speak my mind here...
With 28 years of Auto/Light truck experience I can tell you, for a fact, we (mechanics)are underpaid. We buy our own tools (I personally have about $50,000 in tools). We get the snot beat out of us everyday. We literally bleed from doing our job. No one is happy to see us. In the northeast of Ohio we have to deal with temperatures ranging from sub-zero to over 95 degrees. Rain, snow, road salt, and even dead animals that people have hit or run over. We use torches to burn off rusted and siezed bolts, exhaust systems, and parts that no longer have a hex head from all the corrosion all the while breathing in noxious fumes and dealing with fluids that cause cancer. My back is shot , wrists have carpal tunnel, knees and feet are always sore, hands are a little arthritec, hearing is going and to top it all off....we get paid less...let me repeat that...less than any other trade.
I personally make $22.50 an hour, pay part of my medical insurance and have to make my own retirement plans. I am also at the top of my field with no major raises in sight. A top technician will earn from $20.00-$25.00. I can not even afford to purchase one of the new vehicles I repair. We fix the things that the engineers did not design right, the manufacturers did not build right and the assemblers did not put together right. We fix them.
I do not complain about my job..it is what I chose. This is not meant to be harsh so please do not take it that way. Yes, it is expensive to have your vehicle fixed but believe me when I tell you that it is going to get way worse. The old timers are getting out and no one is replacing them. Who would do this job for that kind of pay/benefit. A dealer charges $90.00 an hour and the tech gets about 1/4 of that.
I have never sounded off like this before and appologize if it is inappropriate but people really have no idea what a technician does.
I do agree that model trains are getting expensive but no more so than anything else.
Grog, you have generated what I feel is one of the most eloquent compositions this forum has ever received in the nearly three years that I have been a member. Thank-you for posting your thoughts....very nicely stated, and it has given me a new understanding and appreciation for your trade.
I think One Track Mind was not suggesting that his observation is true, but used it as an illustration about complaining, in general. Perhaps he will return and offer his own explanation...paticularly if I misspeak on his behalf.
In any event, I understand your statement, and why you made it, and it was most well said.
-Crandell
I agree. Im a late comer to this thread. I only have a comment to make about the wages. If 22.50 an hour for a 40 hour week isnt enough to live on for a given state and county, pack up everything and move somewhere else that might offer a lower cost of living. My home state requires wages so high and real estate out of sight it was impossible to live there. I bet you could be paid 40 dollars and hour and it still wont be enough.
I remember hitting some of the ceilings in pay over the years in trucking. I solved those pay maximums by seeking work elsewhere for higher wages and bonuses. Yes there was a great deal of job hopping but I did not sign on anywhere unless something was in it better for me... usually the paycheck. Sometimes better trucks which became more important as the bones started to wear down.
Here in Arkansas everything is much easier financially although you sort of go 20 years into the wayback machine on some of our towns. Just putting a tag on a motor vehicle only cost 20 dollars here. I recall shoving 120+ dollars plus inspection, emissions, insurance and medicvac fees on top of that back in the old place just for tags. And that is just a start as long you pass your vehicle on everything.
Hopefully by the time Arkansas does all of this fee stuff Oil will be used up and we all would be running on something else.
Model trains and the associated costs are at the very bottom of the list each year. Next to the annual dues such as post office fees, bank box fee etc. In my home everything is paid first BEFORE trains. Although there is a budget amount set aside for the trains each month.
Of course the other variable is the definition of "high cost." No matter what the price point is for our hobby stuff, there still will be a segment of the hobby that thinks that is just too expensive - unless of course the price is free - but then perhaps the shipping cost will be too much. The other variable that is somewhat interesting is the term "greed." From what I can see, a significant number of people define the term as when someone else wants more cash in his or her pocket. Having more cash in one's own pocket, either by getting paid more or in getting stuff cheaper, is "getting what I deserve/am worth/what is fair etc." I don't think any side or view is either right or wrong, but rather from a different perspective. Because of these variable definitions, I don't think we'll ever get a good answer - if there is indeed one - on topics like this.
This may be a wrong approach to the answer, but you have to look at the hobby realistically. The prices are what they are - period. Either rethink your approach to the hobby or find another one.
In my younger years, I used to build custom cars. I would still love to build another one, but the prices of parts, etc. have sky-rocketed to the point it's not feasable for me to even attempt it now. I accept the fact it's not within my current state to afford that luxury so I've moved on. I don't complain about the high cost of the parts, yet still continually spend every extra penny I have to keep pushing forward .... that's not a hobby, it's an obcession.
If you're determined to have a layout at all costs, expect to pay what the items cost for the items you want / need. I wouldn't even consider getting involved in any leisure activity until I've thoroughly investigated all the current and potential future costs before making an educated decision if I could afford it, no matter how much I would enjoy doing it.
Being a model railroader also means being resourceful. Aside from the items you NEED to buy, like track / engines / cars .... scenery is by far the cheapest (most often free) stage of the entire process. You can have hours upon hours of enjoyable scenery time for very little investment. Mother nature provides a LOT of free materials - dirt, rocks, weeds, and they're all free. I've made boxes full of my own ground foam for no more cost than a couple boxes of dye.
My brutally honest opinion is that if the hobby is so expensive that you verbally have to complain about the price every time you make a purchase, you should seriously consider looking into doing something different with your free time. Sorry.
Mark.
¡ uʍop ǝpısdn sı ǝɹnʇɐuƃıs ʎɯ 'dlǝɥ
Costs then and now...hmm In 1964 a brand new Chevrolet 1/2 ton sold for aound $2400-$2600 dollars. Nearly anything that went wrong with that truck I could have fixed myself and still can today.
A new Chevrolet 1/2 ton today sells for around $25,000 - $40,000 dollars. I probably can't even change the air filter without a manual and at least one specialized tool. To even figure out what that occaisional miss is I need a computer and a degree. That old truck still runs today. I can fix it with parts from the auto wrecker. Lots of repairs are made with bailing wire and pliers. There really is no comparison between the two.
The Tyco trainset I got for Christmas when I was about 8 sold for around $50-$60 Dollars. I liked it so much that when my cousin tired of his set his mom gave it to me. I had two of them and was in my glory. One of those old loco's is still in operation today. Most of the rolling stock that came with the sets are still rolling and the power packs both still work well enough.
The Bachmann trainset my son won in a raffle was worth around $125-$150 dollars. It has EZ-Track...which I am coming to dislike already. The loco runs like a piece of junk and the rolling stock feels flimsy. There really is no comparison between the two.
Somebody shoot this horse already.
Trains are cheaper than some other hobbies. But having any kind of hobby that allows you to forget your troubles and stress for a short while is one that is going to keep you out of hospitals and other trouble.
Falls Valley RR wrote:Trains are cheaper than some other hobbies. But having any kind of hobby that allows you to forget your troubles and stress for a short while is one that is going to keep you out of hospitals and other trouble.
Great point!...Any hobby is going to save you a great deal of money in the long run in Dr. and hospital bills...maybe if the OP'er averages out the cost as compared to an average surgery, it might be pretty cheep
A $10.00 sheet of balsa or other softwood is enough to suppy a whole city of structures if you scratchbuild. Factor that into the mix and the cost comes down...it's a matter of where and how you invest in the hobby. (pulling my gun to get off the first shot)
my .02 worth
Bob Berger, C.O.O. N-ovation & Northwestern R.R. My patio layout....SEE IT HERE
There's no place like ~/ ;)
CNJ,If you don't think the CPI is a fair calculator, what is?
As for "nonsensical", that would be the comparing of top-of-the-line products from different decades to each other without taking into consideration the improvements made (same goes for "bottom-of-the-barrel" products). To say that today's models are no better (relative to the level of available technology) than that of 50 years ago makes no sense. What does that even mean?
Paul A. Cutler III************Weather Or No Go New Haven************
To be fair to CNJ, one of my examples was a comparison of a 1950 Varney 4-6-2 to an MTH sound/DCC/DCS equipped PRR K-4.
Here's a better comparison. The Varney Super 4-6-2 (kit less tender) went for the equivalent of nearly $500 in today's currency. A Bowser USRA Light 4-6-2 kit goes for $130 in current dollars. It's even cheaper by comparison in that a tender (old Varney dies) is included with the kit. If we deflate back to 1950 price levels, the Bowser kit is selling for the equivalent of $15.00 in 1950 prices or a bit more than 1/4 the price of the Varney.
CNJ also claims that prices were, on a relative basis, cheaper in the 70's/80's. I have some Athearn BB cars from that period. One, an ATSF box car, cost me $1.98 around 1975. The other kits range from that price to $2.29 ($8.89 in today's prices). That $1.98 in 1975 is the equivalent of $7.69 today (within 6 cents of Athearn's actual current MSRP). I also have a Westside SP GS-8 that I bought in 1973 for $135 (full MSRP). That's the equivalent of $635.28 today. Current street price on a W'side GS-8 ranges from $375 - 425 (a bit more if in pristine condition AND professionally painted). So much for the concept of brass locos as an investment.
If that's not enough, the upcoming BLI USRA light 4-6-2 has a sticker price of $239.99 or about $28.00 in 1950 bucks. Hobby prices are not out of line.
The one thing I've found that's really out of whack (especially here in California) in comparison to the past are home prices. My parents bought a house in Claremont, CA, in 1963 for $27,500. My mom sold it in 1991 for $210,000, which was about $88k above its 1991 inflation adjusted price. The 2007 equivalent of the 1963 price would be $187,769.28. Even in today's depressed market, that house would be priced north of half a mil.
Andre
Falls Valley RR wrote: Trains are cheaper than some other hobbies. But having any kind of hobby that allows you to forget your troubles and stress for a short while is one that is going to keep you out of hospitals and other trouble.
One Track Mind wrote: Grog wrote: Grog, you have generated what I feel is one of the most eloquent compositions this forum has ever received in the nearly three years that I have been a member. Thank-you for posting your thoughts....very nicely stated, and it has given me a new understanding and appreciation for your trade.I think One Track Mind was not suggesting that his observation is true, but used it as an illustration about complaining, in general. Perhaps he will return and offer his own explanation...paticularly if I misspeak on his behalf.In any event, I understand your statement, and why you made it, and it was most well said.-Crandell I am as redfaced as a boy that just had his first kiss. Thanks for the compliment. One Track Mind was most likely using a mechanic as an example because everyone can relate to huge auto repair bills. I took no offense and am quite sure it was a harmless example. Its a shame that so many people have to struggle through life and also have to limit their enjoyable moments like family time or hobbies. We seem to either have the time or the money...rarely do we have both.Brian. Guys - indeed I was trying to make a, perhaps ill-advised analogy of sorts.All day long in my train shop and on this forum I hear about the high cost of everything. Apparently I was feeling a bit defensive that day.Certainly nothing was meant personally against auto mechanics in particular...the only reason that example was used was because someone was complaining about the cost of labor only minutes before I began to read this thread.To clarify, it is frustrating to hear all the complaints about the high prices on this forum as a model train shop owner. Again, that's just me taking it personal when I should not, I suppose.But yeah I was facetiously making a quick comment about if there are similar forums, say "My plumber ripped me off!" ... etc.Hopefully this explains what I meant, kinda posting this quickly as thank goodness I'm a bit busy today. If this doesn't help explain what I meant better, then I'll check back later.
Grog wrote: Grog, you have generated what I feel is one of the most eloquent compositions this forum has ever received in the nearly three years that I have been a member. Thank-you for posting your thoughts....very nicely stated, and it has given me a new understanding and appreciation for your trade.I think One Track Mind was not suggesting that his observation is true, but used it as an illustration about complaining, in general. Perhaps he will return and offer his own explanation...paticularly if I misspeak on his behalf.In any event, I understand your statement, and why you made it, and it was most well said.-Crandell I am as redfaced as a boy that just had his first kiss. Thanks for the compliment. One Track Mind was most likely using a mechanic as an example because everyone can relate to huge auto repair bills. I took no offense and am quite sure it was a harmless example. Its a shame that so many people have to struggle through life and also have to limit their enjoyable moments like family time or hobbies. We seem to either have the time or the money...rarely do we have both.Brian.
I am as redfaced as a boy that just had his first kiss. Thanks for the compliment. One Track Mind was most likely using a mechanic as an example because everyone can relate to huge auto repair bills. I took no offense and am quite sure it was a harmless example. Its a shame that so many people have to struggle through life and also have to limit their enjoyable moments like family time or hobbies. We seem to either have the time or the money...rarely do we have both.
Brian.
Guys - indeed I was trying to make a, perhaps ill-advised analogy of sorts.
All day long in my train shop and on this forum I hear about the high cost of everything. Apparently I was feeling a bit defensive that day.
Certainly nothing was meant personally against auto mechanics in particular...the only reason that example was used was because someone was complaining about the cost of labor only minutes before I began to read this thread.
To clarify, it is frustrating to hear all the complaints about the high prices on this forum as a model train shop owner. Again, that's just me taking it personal when I should not, I suppose.
But yeah I was facetiously making a quick comment about if there are similar forums, say "My plumber ripped me off!" ... etc.
Hopefully this explains what I meant, kinda posting this quickly as thank goodness I'm a bit busy today. If this doesn't help explain what I meant better, then I'll check back later.
You would think that my callouses would prevent me from feeling a harmless comment like that but alas I am too thin skinned.
I hope that your shop has record breaking sales. I know it can be peanut butter/jelly for 10 months and steak for 2. Here is hoping you have a steak and potato year.
Paul3 wrote: CNJ,If you don't think the CPI is a fair calculator, what is?As for "nonsensical", that would be the comparing of top-of-the-line products from different decades to each other without taking into consideration the improvements made (same goes for "bottom-of-the-barrel" products). To say that today's models are no better (relative to the level of available technology) than that of 50 years ago makes no sense. What does that even mean?
There is no universally accepted price index for luxury items that I am aware of. However, any comparison of such prices (whatever you like the item to be - TVs, sound playing devices, computers, cameras, phones, most any common device) will demonstrate that their pricing increases significantly less, era to era, than the CPI would suggest. For mass produced items (which model trains are understandable not) price changes have been nil or even decreased significantly over 50 years. If one must invoke some sort of index value, better to try prices relative to median middle class income.
And, yes, it is nonsensical, or at the very least naive, to try to justify current pricing by trying to factor in how the modern item is better than an earlier ones. Both are the best that their particular era could provide, nothing more. Technology always moves forward and one expects an increasingly better product with time for about the same price. A 2008 Ford is no better value, relative to its era, than was the 1936 example for its time.
Price comparisons to 1950 (or whatever year makes your point) are fun, but they really have no practical use for affording the hobby. You're buying today's products at today's prices or yesterday's products at flea market prices / collector's prices (depending on what the seller can get).
The real measure of how high the cost is, is can you afford to do what you want? If you can, then the cost is not too high. If you can't, then the cost is too high. When the cost is too high you can increase your income, decrease your objective, or use alternatives such as scratchbuilding the turnouts vice buying them (or some combination).
Personally I have had years where renewing my MR subscription was all I could afford and others where I could spend a couple of thousand dollars on the hobby. I enjoyed the hobby and had fun in those years and the others that were in between - I just did things that matched my disposable income. I had as much fun with my first layout running Tyco trains on Atlas brass track (the flex had fiber ties) as I do now with my S Helper and American model trains on Shinohara nickel silver track.
Enjoy
Paul
BRAKIE wrote: marknewton wrote:Those $10 Athearn engines and $5 cars weren't very good, though. Mostly rubbish, I reckon. And as for what's on offer at trainshows and swapmeets, again it's mostly rubbish.As far as I'm concerned, if you think railway modelling is too expensive, then get another hobby.Mark. Theres a topic on the Atlas forum you should read..http://forum.atlasrr.com/discussion/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=42316
marknewton wrote:Those $10 Athearn engines and $5 cars weren't very good, though. Mostly rubbish, I reckon. And as for what's on offer at trainshows and swapmeets, again it's mostly rubbish.As far as I'm concerned, if you think railway modelling is too expensive, then get another hobby.Mark.
Theres a topic on the Atlas forum you should read..
http://forum.atlasrr.com/discussion/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=42316
CNJ,I think you're mixing up too much of the electronics market into this equation. There is no real equivalent in model railroading to the invention of the transistor, nor to the continuing advancements in microchip technology that allows prices to drop while increasing the ability of the product. All the items you mentioned (TVs, sound playing devices, computers, cameras, phones, etc.) rely heavily on this new and improving technology.
Other than CNC machining, what new or improved technology has helped model railroading's prices in the last 50 years? Note: I'm leaving layout controls out of this like DCC, etc.
It would be interesting to compare today to the 1950's for medium middle-class income to hobby prices of both eras. Sounds like a term paper...
As for the idea that you can't adjust the figures for quality for the era, I must disagree. That's especially true when one considers that some of the products remain practically unchanged (Penn Line = Bowser) or close to it (Globe F7A = Athearn BB F7A).
A 2008 Ford may cost the same % of a middle class family's median annual income as a 1936 Ford...but which car would you rather drive to work every day? The modern product is the better value (defined as getting more bang for your buck) for both cars and model railroading, IMHO.
The whole point of this thread (and countless other whining threads about hobby prices) is that things are too expensive for whatever reason (greedy manufacturers being the usual suspect). This implies that things are actually worth less relative to this era than they were in the past. They aren't.
My point was that the relation of hobby prices to the value of the dollar has remained relatively stable for the past 50+ years. Longer even. When the Lionel 700E scale Hudson came out in 1937, it was priced at $75.00. In today's prices that's $1,088.21. The closest comparable loco in the current MTH O gauge Premier Line catalog is the C&NW E-4 streamlined 4-6-4. Whether one's a better value relative to its era as compared to the other is irrelevant. As far as inflation adjusted prices go, they're very close. However, if you dig a bit farther and compare prices to wages, the modern stuff gets cheaper.
Many years ago, I read in an old Life magazine from 1941 (before Pearl Harbor) that the median income in the US at the time was around $1200/year (corresponding to about $17K/yr today) . That's as close as I can get to 1937. The also corresponds to an old movie (pre WWII - but can't remember title) I remember seeing where one of the characters in the movie has gotten a job that pays him $35/week ($507.83/wk or $26,047/year in today's dollars). In 2005, the median US household income was $46,326 ( http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/29/real_estate/wealthiest_American_cities/index.htm ) or $3192.82/year ($61.40/wk) in 1937 dollars. BTW, inflation was virtually nil between 1937 and 1941.
So what have we got? Current median household income (relatively current income, anyhow) is 2.71 times the median income in 1941 (and negligibly higher than that vs. 1937). OTOH, inflation adjusted prices for just about any hobby item I can dig up are either close to unchanged or lower. Relative to income, hobby items are considerably cheaperthan they used to be. If something is relatively cheaper, it's a better value both in relative and absolute terms. If Lionel were to re-release the 700E Hudson as it was in 1937 and price it relative to current income rather than current prices, it would go for about $2955 (or ($203.70 in 1937 dollars).
OTOH, it's more fun for people to complain, isn't it?
Well, since it seems most everyone wishes to unswervingly hold their oppions, let me point out some highly significant things in other areas that infer essentially the same conclusions I've previously offered.
Prior to 1944 the hobby was, unquestionably, very expensive relative to the average person's income. A layout-ready locomotive often cost a significant fraction of the price of a 3 year old second hand car. Even primative kit locomotives were very high priced. At the time, MR estimated that there were no more than 16,000 hobbyists in the entire country and this hadn't changed very significantly in some time.
During the 1950's, when prices of many HO products, most notably locomotive kits and especially RTR examples, fell to previously unthinkably low levels, the hobby's size exploded by nearly a factor of ten. Of these, 20%, alone, were teenaged modelers. Most of them did not report having extreme difficulties in participating on a modest scale and many displayed worked at the same level as the adults (see how many older teens and 20-something folks authored MR and RMC articles in those days).
The hobby grew dramatically again as the early Boomers reached middle age, with estimates eventually ranging up to 250k to 350k HO hobbyists. Every bit of statistical evidence available points to the hobby reaching a peak in its numbers in the 1990's. However, today teenagers in the hobby have all but vanished, probably amounting now to around 1% of modelers (MR totally gave up on them in its magazine some years ago). Most of those that remain report they can afford very little in the way of the latest equipment. Many are outright discouraged from entering the hobby because of the costs.
Today we also see a very significant percentage of adults, well advanced in their job careers, posting the very same complaints voiced by the younger hobbyists. How many threads do we need to see posted by adults who were considering model railroading as a hobby before being shocked by the current prices, in spite of their income bracket, before we acknowledge a real problem? Likewise, for the seasoned hobbyists, significant LHS impulse buying, once a universal trait of model railroaders, has dimmished strikingly, or disappeared altogether, because it can no longer be afforded. And at train shows outsiders to the hobby, on hearing what we've paid for an upscale loco, are outright stunned. Take my word for it, the $50 or $75 paid for a top-of-the-line Lionel set in the early 1950's in no way compares to $450 for a single, top-of-the-line HO locomotive today (let alone a current $1,000+ Lionel!) in the minds of folks that have lived in both eras, CPI or no CPI figures.
So, to review, there is no longer any significant youth faction in the hobby, cost being a significant reason. Of late, typical pricing has been increasing by perhaps 10% per year on the most desirable items, with some of the latest top products approaching brass prices of just a decade ago. Prices are driving seasoned adults out of the hobby, or at least out of the marketplace. The problem of cost is being voiced by most young adults with a potential, or possible future interest in the hobby, as the main reason for not considering model railroading.
If you think that such situations point to good times, no problems and a healthy future for the hobby and the average hobbyist ahead, than I can only conclude that you must be wearing blinders. You've seen where brass and collectible Lionel has gone in recent years...HO has begun following that same path.
CN:
If today's prices are driving people from the hobby as you say, then today's hobby firms must be seeing rapidly declining sales as the prices escalate ... which sounds like an environment where the manufacturers are vying for the spoils of a hobby that's little more than a flailing corpse at this stage.
According to the facts I find, I think your analysis (at best) is somewhat dated, as per the mainstream media reports in 2007 that the hobby is making a comeback ...
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Sales of model trains are picking up steam again thanks to deals linking them to the "Harry Potter" and "The Polar Express" movies, along with a new approach to marketing the old-fashioned toys. Lionel, one of the big names in model trains in the 1950s, has watched as its business had to focus less on selling toys to kids than serving an older but much smaller hobbyist market. Folk-rock singer Neil Young, 61, is so passionate about trains that he bought a fifth of the company in 1995. Now, the company is bringing trains back to young people, and sales are up 40 percent in the last two years.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Sales of model trains are picking up steam again thanks to deals linking them to the "Harry Potter" and "The Polar Express" movies, along with a new approach to marketing the old-fashioned toys.
Lionel, one of the big names in model trains in the 1950s, has watched as its business had to focus less on selling toys to kids than serving an older but much smaller hobbyist market. Folk-rock singer Neil Young, 61, is so passionate about trains that he bought a fifth of the company in 1995.
Now, the company is bringing trains back to young people, and sales are up 40 percent in the last two years.
You can read the full story here.
CN, I'd be interested in seeing your links to your sources, since it doesn't seem to fit the facts as I know them ...
Joe Fugate Modeling the 1980s SP Siskiyou Line in southern Oregon
DD1 wrote:I think one must remember we had more disposible income 50 years ago than we have today, all other things being equal. Today's disposible income has to pay for cell phones, satelite tv and internet, video games, DVD's and countless other things that were not even available back then.
DD1,
While I will agree with your statement that those things mentioned above were not around 50 years ago, the idea that our disposible income "has to pay for" them is untrue. Cell phones, satellite TV, Internet, video games, and DVDs are NOT essentials. They are conveniences, nicities, and luxuries (like our hobby) that we "choose" to invest our monies in. Any one of them - including our beloved hobby - we can live without.
I will agree with you that when something is important to you, you make the sacrifices necessary to enjoy it - albeit forgoing the $10+ bottles of wine, saving your pennies and making do with what you have (or don't have).
Tom
https://tstage9.wixsite.com/nyc-modeling
Time...It marches on...without ever turning around to see if anyone is even keeping in step.
jfugate wrote: CN:If today's prices are driving people from the hobby as you say, then today's hobby firms must be seeing rapidly declining sales as the prices escalate ... which sounds like an environment where the manufacturers are vying for the spoils of a hobby that's little more than a flailing corpse at this stage.According to the facts I find, I think your analysis (at best) is somewhat dated, as per the mainstream media reports in 2007 that the hobby is making a comeback ...NEW YORK (Reuters) - Sales of model trains are picking up steam again thanks to deals linking them to the "Harry Potter" and "The Polar Express" movies, along with a new approach to marketing the old-fashioned toys.Lionel, one of the big names in model trains in the 1950s, has watched as its business had to focus less on selling toys to kids than serving an older but much smaller hobbyist market. Folk-rock singer Neil Young, 61, is so passionate about trains that he bought a fifth of the company in 1995.Now, the company is bringing trains back to young people, and sales are up 40 percent in the last two years. You can read the full story here. CN, I'd be interested in seeing your links to your sources, since it doesn't seem to fit the facts as I know them ... New media reports hobby sales are up.TAMR (The Teen Association of Model Railroaders web site is making a comeback -- it's not crawling with teens, but there's clearly new interest.)My NMRA contacts tell me the hobby is in the best shape they've seen for a couple decades. Litchfield Station, a DCC reseller, is doing a bangup business, and growing (read the Sept 2007 article)S scale has seen the introduction of more new models than ever in its history, with S scale narrow gauge growing the most, reports Model Railroad News and The S Scale Web site. Doesn't sound like a hobby that's done for just yet ...
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Sales of model trains are picking up steam again thanks to deals linking them to the "Harry Potter" and "The Polar Express" movies, along with a new approach to marketing the old-fashioned toys.Lionel, one of the big names in model trains in the 1950s, has watched as its business had to focus less on selling toys to kids than serving an older but much smaller hobbyist market. Folk-rock singer Neil Young, 61, is so passionate about trains that he bought a fifth of the company in 1995.Now, the company is bringing trains back to young people, and sales are up 40 percent in the last two years.
Doesn't sound like a hobby that's done for just yet ...
Let's take an honest look here, Joe.
First of all, what in the world does Neil Young's buying into Lionel have to do with the situation of HO model railroad pricing? Young, an astute businessman, bought into a company whose main objective today is selling a high end, collectible product (many with a nostalgia bend). These are aimed largely at well to do, middle-age men who fondly recall Lionel from their childhood, a time when the company produced toy trains for children. At often $1,000 or more for a locomotive, it is obvious that their target audience is no longer kids, or even most traditional O-gaugers. Young made a good business move, one I'd gladly make today if I had his money.
As to the media reports of surging train sale, if you'll recall they were talking about O-gauge toy trains and spurred by two then current childrens' movies. There was nothing about HO therein and there certainly has been little evidence of adult-level trains in big-box stores for years, nor volume sales in LHS. The majority of hobbyist-oriented model trains of are now high end market items.
Many of the manufacturers today are progressively changing direction from a modeling hobby aspect to one of offering high priced collectibles. This is identical to how the imported brass market evolved over its first two decades. Without question, if one limits themselves to a very high end clientel these days, or confines their production to a 500 or 1,000 reservation only, limited-run of exclusive items, there's still money to be made in "model railroading." This isn't just in locomotives, either. Look at FSM kits. They've become a commodity, not a hobby kit to be built (George has said that probably 50%+ of his kits are purchased for the single purpose of speculation). The same is becoming increasingly true of many of the structure kit manufacturers. Look at the latest offerings from Walthers, Bar Mills, FOS, South River, et al. They are $150-$300 per HO building. These aren't in the price range of the average hobbyist building a layout.
As much as I'd like to see TAMR's numbers swell, the last figures I saw for its membership were a few hundred and their national conventions could be held in my livingroom. To me, that's not a very encouraging sign in a hobby that has maybe 200k followers (maybe 0.5%?).
I really can't speak to Litchfield's article, other than to say that to a certain faction in the hobby DCC is very popular and these individuals freely purchase plenty of product. However, I've still seen absolutely nothing to about DCC that it suggests lowering the cost of participating in the hobby. It only increases it...often significantly
You say show me the published numbers that back up my posts. I have done so here, many times, to the point that it's become utterly pointless to repeat them. Folks don't want to acknowldge them because they don't fit their pollyanna outlooks on the hobby. If MR knew of really up-beat stats concerning the hobby, don't you think they'd publish them? Honestly, I feel if next month's MR editorial carried accurate stats re the hobby, there'd be people here denying even them if the numbers weren't favorable!
Certainly, we do know that MR's readership aged dramatically over the course of the past 30 years, as did that of the NMRA. They simply aged, they did not migrate to some other media, or become some invisible legion. Face it, these are the only two bodies to publish age figures for the hobby. They are all we have to go on. However, both currently express very similar numbers (i.e. about 55-60 for an average age). I think any meet or meeting comprised of strictly hobbyists (rather than including the just curious public) shows this figure to be reasonably ballpark. You've previously said some un-named NMRA ex-official related insider info to you how well the hobby was really doing. I have to say that I had some interaction with several current NMRA officials over the summer and none would confirm having knowledge on any such industry report.
How much do you want? Foremost among the indicators of this becoming an increasingly money driven hobby, and I saved it for last, is the creation of the WGH program. Its primary objective, published for all to see, is to try and get more wealthy people into the hobby (target audience: adult males 45-64, i.e. those in their peak earning years). There's no indication they are looking to encourage younger people to carry the hobby into the future on a budget. What more can I say?
CNJ831 &n
Bingo, Tom. We find more things to excuse having by insisting that they are essential to us for any number of reasons. We have come to call this "rationalization." How our society every made it to this state of advancement without all of our "essentials" is quite beyond me...divine intervention, maybe?
We have more disposable income now than ever before...clearly. Look at all the quads, snowmobile, travel trailer RV's, dual cars, double incomes, TV's in every room, plus all the associated gaming and entertainment stuff, ....it goes on an on. Few of us had that stuff 50 years ago. Let's not forget season's tickets to whatever, including opera and the symphony, rock concerts galore, drugs for many, other "drugs" for many, and so on.
We, simply, have never had it better...if materialism is what makes life better. I'm not convinced.
Sorry, this is getting a little afield.
One thing that everyone seems to FORGET is that things take time, or atleast they used to. Im 15, modeling the SOO and the WC, and have over 40 HO engines, many being the high end ones, such as KATO, P2K, Atlas, and some Athearn RTR and Genesis. Oh, I forgot to say, Ive been in this hobby since I was 5. Im finally getting my layout built now, after 10 years of waiting. My family is not rich, me being a single child in a single parent family.
I just bought three packs of track for my planned 12x8 layout, Micro engineering track to boot. You get 6 three foot pieces for 30 bucks. For only 90 dollars my layout track is pretty much done for now, maybe I'll need one more pack in the coming months. I have bought about 1/2 of the foam I'll need, only cost me about 15 dollars. Benchwork isnt cheap, but luckily my grandpa helped me build and totally financed it for me. So, lets say its cost me 215 dollars so far. All you need is a few switches and an engine or two, with maybe 10 cars of rolling stock and you can work from there. So, lets say you have an engine (80 bucks), and 10 cars (15x10) and you have about 230 dollars there. Spread that out over a year, and you have worked your way forward very easily. And who says you'll need that engine, maybe you bought an Athearn RTR for 60 dollars.
Its all about patience, even though it may be unbearable at times. Once you have all your track, your cost goes down as low as you want, because you have the "main" portion of your layout setup, and you branch off from that.
Yes, that is alot of money, about 500 dollars, but look at what you get for that. You wouldnt have to buy anything more until you wanted too. This hobby is the perfect one to break down into stages, and if you do that you'll find how much money you DONT have to spend.
Alec
CNJ831,Well stated..
I will add this..If the hobby is so rosey why the WGH push back by those that stand to lose the most? As you may recall I have pointed that out several times.
Not a very good sign is it?
As far as the Boy Scott merit badge big deal..Like all badges they are earned..After the badge is obtain they move on to earn the next one.
Larry
Conductor.
Summerset Ry.
"Stay Alert, Don't get hurt Safety First!"