Travel industry experts say that given the sometimes-mixed reputation of the country's (China) ever-expanding air network, the train has becoming the travel mode-of-choice for a growing number of people, with its overnight 'sleeper' services gaining a particularly strong following.There's something special about spending a night on a train.Maybe it's the engine's gentle rhythm rocking you to sleep, or the thought of falling asleep in one place and waking up in another.
http://english.people.com.cn/90778/7966981.html
From an official government news source concerning a government owned rail system. The article advocates a policy of what in the United States was once travel by Pullman.
China is roughly the size of the United States. China has far people than the United States. China's population is heavily concentrated in its east. Congestion in China is of great concern.
Senior citizens and pleasure travelers are mentioned as a growing market for sleepers. Those with the time avoid the time in lines at airports and hotels.
America is certainly not China when it comes to passenger rail. Is such a market expansion strategy applicable to America's government owned rail passenger service?
Victrola1 Travel industry experts say that given the sometimes-mixed reputation of the country's (China) ever-expanding air network, the train has becoming the travel mode-of-choice for a growing number of people, with its overnight 'sleeper' services gaining a particularly strong following.There's something special about spending a night on a train.Maybe it's the engine's gentle rhythm rocking you to sleep, or the thought of falling asleep in one place and waking up in another. http://english.people.com.cn/90778/7966981.html From an official government news source concerning a government owned rail system. The article advocates a policy of what in the United States was once travel by Pullman. China is roughly the size of the United States. China has far people than the United States. China's population is heavily concentrated in its east. Congestion in China is of great concern. Senior citizens and pleasure travelers are mentioned as a growing market for sleepers. Those with the time avoid the time in lines at airports and hotels. America is certainly not China when it comes to passenger rail. Is such a market expansion strategy applicable to America's government owned rail passenger service?
It's an apples- and- oranges comparison given that even today,most Chinese citizens do not own automobiles and the country is far from having as developed an interstate highway system as the US(though they are roadbuilding at a furious rate)..
"I Often Dream of Trains"-From the Album of the Same Name by Robyn Hitchcock
Are not the sleepers that Amtrak does operate often sold out? Is not Amtrak acutally short of sleepers? Should not there be at least one sleeper on the overnight Newport News - Boston train, actually an extension of the old Federal service? For Richmond - Boston and DC - Boston travel also?
daveklepper Are not the sleepers that Amtrak does operate often sold out? Is not Amtrak acutally short of sleepers? Should not there be at least one sleeper on the overnight Newport News - Boston train, actually an extension of the old Federal service? For Richmond - Boston and DC - Boston travel also?
It depends on what you mean by often. The sleepers are sold out, at least on some trains, during the high seasons, i.e. summer, Thanksgiving, and Christmas. But throughout the year probably not!
Although Amtrak's monthly operating reports provide an easy way to calculate the average load factor for a train or service line (long distance trains), they don't provide information to calculate easily the average load factor for the sleepers. It can, however, within reason be done train by train.
I don't have the time or inclination to calculate the average sleeping car load factor for all the long distance trains. However, I pulled together some rough numbers for the Crescent, which had a 5.1 per cent increase in sleeping car revenues (higher per mile fares) in FY11 offset by a 3.2 per cent decline in sleeping car passengers.
There are four Crescents between the end points (two southbound and two northbound) during the schedule day, and there are 365 schedule days during a normal year. Based on my having ridden the train last year, each Crescent has two Viewliner sleeping cars. Maxed out each car can carry 32 passengers in 15 spaces. On average the Crescents offer 93,440 seats and 43,800 spaces during the year.
During FY11 the Crescent carried 32,616 sleeping car passengers for an average load factor of 34.9 per cent (seats) and 74.5 per cent (spaces). The former number assumes that every seat was occupied; the latter assumes that there was only one person per space. The actual average load factor would be in between these numbers. Again, if my experience is any indicator, most of the roomettes are occupied by one person whilst most of the bedrooms are occupied by two people. My conclusion is that the average sleeping car load factor for the Crescent is no more than 50 per cent.
Last year I rode the train from D.C. to New Orleans in August. My car appeared to have a relatively high occupancy rate from D.C. to Atlanta, but south of Atlanta there were only five people in the car. Only two of us rode through to New Orleans. I suspect that the average load factor south of Atlanta is lower than the average load factor between New York and Atlanta, which means that any extra capacity probably would only be needed between New York and Atlanta.
The Crescent is just one of Amtrak's long distance trains. The numbers for the other trains would be different. How much different is unknown, but I suspect not a great deal, with the possible exception of the Lake Shore Limited.
Determining whether to purchase additional sleepers is a margins exercise, i.e. will the marginal revenues generated by the incremental increase in sales offset the marginal costs of acquiring and operating each additional car? I don't know and, furthermore, Amtrak's public information does not give us enough information to make a determination.
If my memory serves me correctly, the average price for a new Viewliner type sleeper is in the neighborhood of $2.2 to $2.7 million. The cost to Amtrak (federal taxpayers) would include financing. With financing over 30 years, which probably would be rolled several times, the cost of the cars could range from $3.2 to $6.4 million. The major variance driver is the cost of the financing. Using today's borrowing rates for the federal government as a benchmark, the output would be the lower number, but using the Treasury's average rates over the past 30 years, a more realistic assumption, the cost would be considerably higher.
Forgetting about the incremental cost of operating an additional car(s), which I don't know how to obtain given Amtrak does not make the information available to the public, unless one wants to file a FOIA request, the revenue required to offset the marginal operating costs would be considerable. Each additional car would have to attract a substantial increase in riders.
If the issue is additional capacity for the high season, as per above, buying additional sleeping car space does not appear to be a good business decision.
Mike,
While this thread is really about China (and perhaps we should return to that subject) I did look into sleeping accommodations on the Crescent over the next week.
Beginning tomorrow on the Crescent--Monday October 8--through next Sunday October 14: Saturday October 13 there is a roomette available. Sunday October 14 there is a bedroom available. As of now all other sleeping accommodations are sold out.
I would say your own assessment of sleeping accommodations is supported by my quick check of what is available on the Crescent. John
John WR Mike, While this thread is really about China (and perhaps we should return to that subject) I did look into sleeping accommodations on the Crescent over the next week. Beginning tomorrow on the Crescent--Monday October 8--through next Sunday October 14: Saturday October 13 there is a roomette available. Sunday October 14 there is a bedroom available. As of now all other sleeping accommodations are sold out. I would say your own assessment of sleeping accommodations is supported by my quick check of what is available on the Crescent. John
An assessment of Amtrak's numbers doesn't support a conclusion that Amtrak's sleeping car space is at a premium, other than at certain periods, i.e, high season. A one time check of bookings is not a valid survey and, therefore, cannot be projected over the broader period, i.e. month, year, etc.
You can verify the numbers presented in my post on annual occupancy rates for the Crescent, which was in response to a question about Amtrak's sleeping car occupancy rates.
As regular travelers on the Starlight and the Texas Eagle [LA to Dallas, r/t] we seem to need to book a bedroom at least 10 months in advance and even then be flexible as to the specific date of departure. I have no stats. but just experience. I know the Starlight is a premier train but I can assure the Eagle is not, yet the experience is the same.
Avianwatcher As regular travelers on the Starlight and the Texas Eagle [LA to Dallas, r/t] we seem to need to book a bedroom at least 10 months in advance and even then be flexible as to the specific date of departure. I have no stats. but just experience. I know the Starlight is a premier train but I can assure the Eagle is not, yet the experience is the same.
I was only able to work up the stats for the total accommodations on the Crescent. I could do the same for the Texas Eagle, which saw a 6.2 per cent increase in sleeping car passengers during FY11, but I don't have the time.
Part of the problem may lie in the fact that a Superliner sleeping car only has five bedrooms compared to 14 roomettes. Two of the bedrooms can be sold as a suite. In addition, there is a family room downstairs as well as an accessible bedroom. I suspect the accessible room is blocked except for mobility challenged passengers. Amtrak may hold the suite and family room to the last minute for a family, although I don't know for sure.
Amtrak says that the roomettes and bedrooms are designed for two people, while the bedroom suite is designed for four people, and the family room is designed for two adults and two children. There are 28 seats in the roomettes vs.10 in the bedrooms excluding the family bedroom downstairs. The car can carry 42 adults, excluding those in the accessible room, and two children. Thus, the bedrooms could sell out (10 seats) and half of the roomette seats (14) could sell, for a total of 24 seats out of 44, excluding the accessible room, and the average load factor would be 55.5 per cent. If the train sold the six bedrooms and half the roomettes, the load factor would be 65 per cent of the available space.
As a matter of interest, why do you take the train from the west coast to Dallas on a seemingly regular basis. I have taken it to LA from Dallas and return on four or five occasions whilst on vacation or as a retiree. Given the layover in San Antonio, which is better now than it was, it is a long journey. And it is pricy if you are traveling in a bedroom.
Avianwatcher,
I just checked bedroom availability on the 9th of each month (beginning tomorrow, Monday) through August for the Texas Eagle. There are bedrooms available in February, March and May. All other months are sold out including June, July and August. The reservation system will not yet accept a reservation for September.
For most months roomettes are available but bedrooms are not. Since I used the 9th day each month the day of the week was different.
For the week of August 9 to 15 (11 months in advance) bedrooms are available 4 days but sold out on the other 3 days.
John
First, my wife and I are retired and our daughter and her family live in Frisco so it is just a nice, comfortable, hassle free way of travel. Secondly, as a rail geek, I really enjoy the process. This includes chatting with the crew, taking photographs for my Facebook site, and just watching the world go by! I know it's crazy and we could fly for about half the price but who needs to be "strip searched" by the TSA!
Avianwatcherwho needs to be "strip searched" by the TSA!
Strip searches do happen, but very rarely. Have you ever been strip searched?
C&NW, CA&E, MILW, CGW and IC fan
No, but I have been patted down by shall we say very "friendly" TSA guys that seemed to be enjoying their jobs a great deal. I do fly over seas and if I'm in a hurry here in the states but flying is just no fun any longer. If I can I take the train
Sam1 I don't have the time or inclination to calculate the average sleeping car load factor for all the long distance trains. However, I pulled together some rough numbers for the Crescent, which had a 5.1 per cent increase in sleeping car revenues (higher per mile fares) in FY11 offset by a 3.2 per cent decline in sleeping car passengers. for reasons that were not disclosed the Crescent only had and only booked one sleeper for some days in FY 2011. So capacity was artifically constrained and as expected number of passengers did decline. There are four Crescents between the end points (two southbound and two northbound) during the schedule day, and there are 365 schedule days during a normal year. Based on my having ridden the train last year, each Crescent has two Viewliner sleeping cars. Maxed out each car can carry 32 passengers in 15 spaces. On average the Crescents offer 93,440 seats and 43,800 spaces during the year.During FY11 the Crescent carried 32,616 sleeping car passengers for an average load factor of 34.9 per cent (seats) and 74.5 per cent (spaces). What kind of math is this? There is only one Crescent in each direction originating any day. Its times are similar to the 2 Florida trains. So 15 spaces times 2 cars times 2 trains ( 1 each way ) times 365 days = 21,900 spaces per year but as above only 1 car some days. That would mean that maxed out a total of 46720 passengers but that is not reasonable. When you traveled did you go solo ? If and this is only an if -- which probably is diffferent on each LD route and day the number of passengers in a space may be 12 roomettes (18?) and 3 bedrooms ( 9? ) = 27 ??? This may mean on an average of practical yearly limits of what? 39420 passengers. That would give 32,616 / 39420 = 82% load factor ?? A standard deviation of 8% could mean load factor anywhere from 74% to 90%. AMTRAK does not publish these figures and I would not put a lot of confidence in this speculation. The former number assumes that every seat was occupied; the latter assumes that there was only one person per space. The actual average load factor would be in between these numbers. Again, if my experience is any indicator, most of the roomettes are occupied by one person whilst most of the bedrooms are occupied by two people. My conclusion is that the average sleeping car load factor for the Crescent is no more than 50 per cent. So taking your number the Crescent load factor may be + / - 100 % ?? Last year I rode the train from D.C. to New Orleans in August. My car appeared to have a relatively high occupancy rate from D.C. to Atlanta, but south of Atlanta there were only five people in the car. Only two of us rode through to New Orleans. I suspect that the average load factor south of Atlanta is lower than the average load factor between New York and Atlanta, which means that any extra capacity probably would only be needed between New York and Atlanta. You are absolutely correct. If you read the performance improvement report section of the Crescent AMTRAK and the advocates all say more capacity is needed only north of Atlanta. During peak periods Southern RR would add extra cars and even an extra section north of Atlanta and only operated the Crescent 3 days a week south of Atlanta. AMTRAK took over the service and immediately strarted daily service. Until the staion in Atlanta is moved to another location adding and removing cars in Atlanta will be difficult without major track changes. Atlanta - New Orleans traffic is low except at Mardi Gras time and peak holiday travel season. Mostly one sleeper only to New Orleans is sufficient. 3 to 4 sleepers north of Atlanta most days would be closer to the present ( not future ) demand. The Crescent is just one of Amtrak's long distance trains. The numbers for the other trains would be different. How much different is unknown, but I suspect not a great deal, with the possible exception of the Lake Shore Limited. Florida trains are different as most sleeper passenger do not detrain until Orlando south and again just one paggenger per trip per space so refigure load factor. Determining whether to purchase additional sleepers is a margins exercise, i.e. will the marginal revenues generated by the incremental increase in sales offset the marginal costs of acquiring and operating each additional car? I don't know and, furthermore, Amtrak's public information does not give us enough information to make a determination. There is a source in the Florida improvement plan that mentions the net incremental reduction in operating loss by adding one additional coach to the Meteor of $700,000. Hard to know the sleeper difference. Forgetting about the incremental cost of operating an additional car(s), which I don't know how to obtain given Amtrak does not make the information available to the public,. Each additional car would have to attract a substantial increase in riders. There is a source in the Florida improvement plan that mentions the net incremental reduction in operating loss by adding one additional coach to the Meteor of $700,000. If the issue is additional capacity for the high season, as per above, buying additional sleeping car space does not appear to be a good business decision . Why not ?? You are assuming that most cannot be schedule d for maintenance during slack times. That is not the case now as a figure I heard for last thanksgiving was almost 95% +. My airlines certaing did the same thing.
for reasons that were not disclosed the Crescent only had and only booked one sleeper for some days in FY 2011. So capacity was artifically constrained and as expected number of passengers did decline.
There are four Crescents between the end points (two southbound and two northbound) during the schedule day, and there are 365 schedule days during a normal year. Based on my having ridden the train last year, each Crescent has two Viewliner sleeping cars. Maxed out each car can carry 32 passengers in 15 spaces. On average the Crescents offer 93,440 seats and 43,800 spaces during the year.During FY11 the Crescent carried 32,616 sleeping car passengers for an average load factor of 34.9 per cent (seats) and 74.5 per cent (spaces).
What kind of math is this? There is only one Crescent in each direction originating any day. Its times are similar to the 2 Florida trains. So 15 spaces times 2 cars times 2 trains ( 1 each way ) times 365 days = 21,900 spaces per year but as above only 1 car some days. That would mean that maxed out a total of 46720 passengers but that is not reasonable. When you traveled did you go solo ? If and this is only an if -- which probably is diffferent on each LD route and day the number of passengers in a space may be 12 roomettes (18?) and 3 bedrooms ( 9? ) = 27 ??? This may mean on an average of practical yearly limits of what? 39420 passengers. That would give 32,616 / 39420 = 82% load factor ?? A standard deviation of 8% could mean load factor anywhere from 74% to 90%. AMTRAK does not publish these figures and I would not put a lot of confidence in this speculation.
The former number assumes that every seat was occupied; the latter assumes that there was only one person per space. The actual average load factor would be in between these numbers. Again, if my experience is any indicator, most of the roomettes are occupied by one person whilst most of the bedrooms are occupied by two people. My conclusion is that the average sleeping car load factor for the Crescent is no more than 50 per cent.
So taking your number the Crescent load factor may be + / - 100 % ??
You are absolutely correct. If you read the performance improvement report section of the Crescent AMTRAK and the advocates all say more capacity is needed only north of Atlanta. During peak periods Southern RR would add extra cars and even an extra section north of Atlanta and only operated the Crescent 3 days a week south of Atlanta. AMTRAK took over the service and immediately strarted daily service.
Until the staion in Atlanta is moved to another location adding and removing cars in Atlanta will be difficult without major track changes. Atlanta - New Orleans traffic is low except at Mardi Gras time and peak holiday travel season. Mostly one sleeper only to New Orleans is sufficient. 3 to 4 sleepers north of Atlanta most days would be closer to the present ( not future ) demand.
Florida trains are different as most sleeper passenger do not detrain until Orlando south and again just one paggenger per trip per space so refigure load factor.
There is a source in the Florida improvement plan that mentions the net incremental reduction in operating loss by adding one additional coach to the Meteor of $700,000. Hard to know the sleeper difference.
Forgetting about the incremental cost of operating an additional car(s), which I don't know how to obtain given Amtrak does not make the information available to the public,. Each additional car would have to attract a substantial increase in riders.
There is a source in the Florida improvement plan that mentions the net incremental reduction in operating loss by adding one additional coach to the Meteor of $700,000.
If the issue is additional capacity for the high season, as per above, buying additional sleeping car space does not appear to be a good business decision .
Why not ?? You are assuming that most cannot be schedule d for maintenance during slack times. That is not the case now as a figure I heard for last thanksgiving was almost 95% +. My airlines certaing did the same thing.
This style of discourse where you take snippets of a post you disagree with and then interpose your views doesn't add much to the discussion. Quote what you are responding to and then state your case.
If GM "killed the electric car", what am I doing standing next to an EV-1, a half a block from the WSOR tracks?
I find it far easier to follow than quoting a solid block and then responding in a long post. This way, we can see each, discrete point and the corresponding response or comment directly after.
A look at the Crescent's schedule shows that there are four trains enroute for all but about 45 minutes in a 24 hour day. They all sell space to and from every station except the northbound train would not sell space north of Alexandra. For example, at 2:30 p.m. Number 19 would be just shy of arriving in Newark, whilst Number 19 that had left the previous day would be between Tuscaloosa and Meridian. The northbound schedule is similar. They all sell space in the sleepers.
Normally there are eight Crescent sleepers on the road each day. They have 15 revenue spaces times 8 equals 120 spaces times 365 days equals 43,800 spaces or 87,600 seats assuming two people to a space. Push comes to shove a bedroom can accommodate more than two people.
I calculated an average load factor based on Amtrak information. Averages need to be looked at with a jaundice eye. One can drown in an average of six inches of water. Nevertheless, it suggests that Amtrak's sleeper space is not bursting at the seems, except during peak periods as I noted.
Without an array, it is not possible to calculate a variance and standard deviation. It cannot be calculated from an average unless you have the array that was used to calculate the average. That means Amtrak would have to give us the passenger load for each day. It doesn't.
On what days did the Crescent have only one sleeper? Making a claim without support does not carry a lot of weight.
The key question for a business is whether the cost of adding incremental space (coach or sleeper) would be offset by the incremental revenues. If it only reduces the amount of loss, it is not a good business decision. Without access to Amtrak's assumptions, i.e. equipment cost, operating cost, turn aways, etc., it is impossible to know whether adding additional equipment would be a good business decision. I realize that making a good business decision is foreign to a company that loses more than $1.3 billion per year, but it is a goal they should strive to achieve.
I am a bit suspect of Amtrak's projected numbers. I cannot see that they have been audited or validated by an independent party, i.e. quality control specialists, internal auditors, consultants, etc.
The optimum business decision for Amtrak's sleeping car issue is to drop the long distance trains. They are a drag on the company. As an article in today's issue of Bloomberg.com makes clear, the future for passenger rail in the United States, whether it is hoisted by Amtrak or another operator, is in high density corridors.
You mentioned your airlines. I would be keen to know whether you work for one or several airlines, in what capacity, and a bit about your educational background.
The Crescent PRIIA report says they are using Roomette spaces as dorm rooms.
http://www.amtrak.com/ccurl/570/756/2011%20PRIIA%20210%20Report%2009-26-11_final.pdf
Page 33 diagrams 17 Roomettes available to the public and 6 Bedrooms, but that is after the improvements, currently I think they sell 16 Roomettes.Total rooms 22, Max Occupancy 44, yielding 44.260 million seat miles available or 22.130 million room miles.
Page 20 shows an average sleeper length of haul of 755 miles and 33,766 sleeper passengers = 25.493 million sleeper passenger miles in a year.
I typically assume 1.4 passengers per party, so 18.209 million room miles required. 18.209/22.130 = 82% occupancy of rooms could be plausible. The data to know for sure is not public. As to the degree that the Roomette is really a single passenger accommodation they did change the name.
See my paper on the US Intercity Market for a better breakdown of the ultimate marginal costs. I of course have a spreadsheet for that...
V.Payne The Crescent PRIIA report says they are using Roomette spaces as dorm rooms. http://www.amtrak.com/ccurl/570/756/2011%20PRIIA%20210%20Report%2009-26-11_final.pdf Page 33 diagrams 17 Roomettes available to the public and 6 Bedrooms, but that is after the improvements, currently I think they sell 16 Roomettes.Total rooms 22, Max Occupancy 44, yielding 44.260 million seat miles available or 22.130 million room miles. Page 20 shows an average sleeper length of haul of 755 miles and 33,766 sleeper passengers = 25.493 million sleeper passenger miles in a year. I typically assume 1.4 passengers per party, so 18.209 million room miles required. 18.209/22.130 = 82% occupancy of rooms could be plausible. The data to know for sure is not public. As to the degree that the Roomette is really a single passenger accommodation they did change the name. See my paper on the US Intercity Market for a better breakdown of the ultimate marginal costs. I of course have a spreadsheet for that...
I overlooked the crew occupancy of the roomettes! In any case, we are not that far off in an estimate of high end occupancy numbers, i.e. 74.5% vs 82%. As you noted; as I noted, the occupancy rate today, which would be the basis for determining whether adding additional would be a good business decision, is a range that could be plausible.
Without access to Amtrak's accounting, financial, and operational records, it is impossible to answer the key questions to know whether adding equipment (sleepers) is a good business decision. Determining that a losing business line (long distance trains) would lose less money but still lose money a good business decision does not make.
The solution to Amtrak's long distance train issue is to drop the product line. That would be the decision of a competitive business. Unfortunately, Amtrak is not a competitive business. It is a ward of the state and operates the long distance trains for political rather than economic reasons.
Sam you are mixing load with a load factor. You rode from WASH DC - New Orleans. You were one passenger on segments that you consider to be 2 passengers available.
Between NYP and new orleans there is only 30 spaces on each train available ( assumiing the normal 2 cars ). Since WASH - ATL is the night time portion those spaces are the preminum and dictate the number of sleeper spaces passengers want. That leaves the un needed spaces ATL - NOL empty. I'll admit That lowers the revenue passengers miles down but not the revenue in same amount. Night time charges are greater per mile than the daY time charges check WASH - ATL vs NYP -NOL. vs miles
That being the case when the new sleepers on order are in service AMTRAK can place 3 - 4 sleepers NYP - ATL , then remove all but 1 and add them back on the northbound.that night. Removing multiple sleepers at ATL would economically justify the switching costs where as removing just one does not.
One sidebar that is not addressed is how many sleeper spaces are now taken by off duty crew membeers ? The addition of baggage - dorm cars will also increase the number of available spaces.
If you look at the 10 months of this FY you will find that all the sleeper route of the Star has about the same number of passengers as the Crescent. The extra sleeper on the Meteor & Lakeshore has that figure about 40 - 50% more and the Cardinal that operates with one sleeper 3 days a week but almost always sold out has a reduced number.
Sounds to me that more sleeper space much needed.
Next the $3.5 M cost of each sleeper vs added revenue from that space including initial coach fare needs to be computed but how far out fares should be checked is up to much debate. Maybe a comparsion of 6 months vs 1 month??.
It appears that passenger load factors are a bucket of worms. I want to approach this load factor question from another direction. I believe that neither of us has really looked at it closely so here goes.
Assumptions -- 1 SINGLE LEVEL sleeping car NYP - ATL - NOL Octtober 16 fares (1st available ) Will use max and minimum passengers in a full car.
1. 12 single occupancy roomettes and 3 two people in a bedroom.= 18 passengers. Space load factor = 100%. Passenger load factor what 100% or 50%
2. same space occupancy full but at maximum number of passengers = 36 passengers space load factor still 100%. Now what is the passenger load factor?. 100% ? 200% ?
2a. Full space but split NYP - ATL + ATL - NOL minimum passengers = min 36 max 72 & if space is full then space load factor is 100% but what are the passenger load factors ? 100% ? 200 %, 400% ?
2. 18 passengers passage fare $223 to NOL Roomettee $553, Bedroom $814= $13092
3. 36 Passengers = $17106
4. Now split NYP - ATL 18 pass Passage $210, Roomette $425, bedroom $716 = $11028
5. 36 pass = $14808
6. ATL - NOL 18 Pass passage $70, Roomette $102, Bedroom $142 = $2910
7. 36 passengers = $4170.
Comparing either ex 2 with 4+ 6 or ex 3 with 5+7 we find most of fare is colllected NYP - ATL.
In conclusion taking the number of passenger and extrapolating to any kind of load factor is futile. Futher the fares are greatly biased higher on the north of Atlanta fares. Did not look at WASH but suspect same bias still there. Therefore the loads south of Atlanta do not matter as much as north.
Of all the eastern LD routes the Crescent north of ATL is probably the most convient for potential business travelers due to the departure and arrival times at ATL, WASH, BAL, & less so at PHL. However until enough space is available for the 1 - 5 days that business people usually know they need to travel that market can never be examined. WASH is always so because of being the nation's capital.
I cannot imagine the accounting nightmare this variable of return for a fixed cost durable goods figures must pose. Not simple double entry ? Neither does my accountant daughter
Having recently traveled in SEasia train travel in " pullman class' is for the welloff locals ,but great fun for the trainlovers not just the backbackers as long as you do not need to be any fast.
China can be dificuilt as to travel in as it has so many people and they rank outsiders as low and fairgame
but it can be fun or manly depending on the logals attitude to you and visa versa
blue streak 1 It appears that passenger load factors are a bucket of worms. I cannot imagine the accounting nightmare this variable of return for a fixed cost durable goods figures must pose. Not simple double entry ? Neither does my accountant daughter
It appears that passenger load factors are a bucket of worms. I cannot imagine the accounting nightmare this variable of return for a fixed cost durable goods figures must pose. Not simple double entry ? Neither does my accountant daughter
There are many ways to look at the issue. However, without access to Amtrak's accounting records, it is impossible to determine the need for additional equipment. It is equally impossible to determine the incremental cost of adding another car and therefore the incremental revenue that would be needed to justify doing so.
Amtrak knows or should know how many people are turned away upon attempting to book a sleeper. It should know the number of days the current equipment is sold out and what segments caused it to be sold out. It should also know the cost of operating a sleeper. And it should know what revenues the sleeper is generating. The current data, including the cost information, is easy to get assuming Amtrak has good accounting records, and I believe it does. What's not so easy is predicting whether the company can generate enough incremental revenues from the increment increase space to offset the incremental cost of the new equipment.
As a matter of interest how did you determine that the cost of the new sleepers is in the neighborhood of $3.5 million?
Sam1During FY11 the Crescent carried 32,616 sleeping car passengers for an average load factor of 34.9 per cent (seats) and 74.5 per cent (spaces). The former number assumes that every seat was occupied; the latter assumes that there was only one person per space. The actual average load factor would be in between these numbers. Again, if my experience is any indicator, most of the roomettes are occupied by one person whilst most of the bedrooms are occupied by two people. My conclusion is that the average sleeping car load factor for the Crescent is no more than 50 per cent.
The Crescent is a perfect example. If Amtrak was so short of sleepers, they could short-turn them (and a coach or two) at Atlanta. The switching and servicing cost would be worth the available space. The train is a lightly patronized day train through rural AL and MS south of Atlanta (in fact, in pre-Amtrak days, the Southern only ran it three days a week)
What should we concluded from the fact that this doesn't happen?
-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/)
Sam1's Quote: The solution to Amtrak's long distance train issue is to drop the product line. That would be the decision of a competitive business. Unfortunately, Amtrak is not a competitive business. It is a ward of the state and operates the long distance trains for political rather than economic reasons...
I would tend to disagree. The avoidable costs and equipment capital cost for the Crescent after the PRIIA recommendations are right about the level of the interstate cross-subsidy and the governmental accident cost for the intercity interstate segments. See my other thread, I created a model that matches Amtrak's PRIIA numbers at two points based on my idea of a first order analysis.
I have taken the time to read the Crescent PRIIA Section 210 Performance Improvement Plan. It appears to be long on hopes but short on hard data.
My first question is whether any of the plan has been implemented. It was published supposedly in 2011, and I assume any of its recommendations that could have been birthed would have seen the light of day by now.
The plan confirms what we suspected, i.e. the majority of riders are on the train between Atlanta and New York or various segments in between. The loads south of Atlanta are light. Not many business people amongst the passengers (approximately 11 per cent).
The authors claim that the train sells out on a regular basis, but the don't give us any hard data, i.e. per cent of days it sells out, wanna-be travelers who are turned away because it is sold out, revenue loss due to sell outs, etc. They do say, however, that adding additional equipment would increase annual ridership by 38,300, which in turn would result in additional revenues $1.2 million and a reduction in costs of $300, 000 for a net positive financial impact $1.5 million. However, they don't give the reader any insights into how these projections were derived. Accordingly, without some insight into the methodology used to gin the numbers, I am skeptical about accepting them.
The Brookwood Station appears to be a legitimate bottleneck. Apparently Amtrak is pinning its hopes on persuading the city and perhaps Norfolk Southern to come up with the money to build a new one. What progress, if any, has been made on this effort is unknown to this Texan. However, if asked, I would direct the city fathers and mothers, since I doubt Amtrak will be able to come up with the money for a new station, and I would be surprised if NS comes up with any coins, to look at Fort Worth's Intermodal Transit Center for some inspiration. It serves Amtrak, Greyhound, Trinity Railway Express, and the T, which is Fort Worth's local transit system.
One of the wishes of the planning group was to establish Thruway connecting buses to and from the Crescent's stop in Atlanta. One route was to have been between Atlanta and Chattanooga. Through the looking glass the planners envisioned 17,400 Thruway passengers between the two cities. They would generate $2.3 million in annual revenues, offset by $1.7 million in costs, for a net positive financial impact of $600,000. The average fare between Atlanta and Chattanooga, presumably, would be $132. How the planners derived these numbers is a mystery. Moreover, what made them believe that people in Chattanooga would want to ride a bus south to Atlanta to catch a northbound train, although some of them presumably would be interested in the southbound train, is a mystery. Again, the bottlenecks at Brookwood appear to be a legitimate challenge, although whether they are insurmountable is unknown. In any case, whilst the planners were thinking (presumably) about how to overcome these problems, Megabus stole the show. It offers eight trips between Atlanta and Chattanooga for fares as low as $6, although these probably are teaser fares.
The last think that caught my attention is the fact that up to 8 of the 24 roomettes on the Crescent are blocked for crew space. Wow! Did anyone think about this when they were ordering the cars? Why did Amtrak not order single level dormitory cars when it placed its Viewliner order(s)?
I favor properly regulated, competitive markets, as opposed to government run commercial enterprises? Think Megabus! Then think Amtrak! If Megabus can sert-up a curbside bus service out of Atlanta, why could Amtrak not do the same thing for a Thruway service?
Some answers:
Atlanta has been thinking about a new multimodal station for years. It would serve MARTA, the local commuter bus network and Amtrak, plus any new rail service that might mysteriously pop up. It has just received another push as there are commercial developers interested. There still is no public money allocated to do the public part of the project, so don't hold your breath.
The problem for the Crescent is that this station would be off the route of the train. The Crescent would have to back out, or in, using a very busy part of the the Atlanta rail network. This problem has a non-trivial solution.
Georgia has a very big bug up its you-know-what for connecting Chattanooga to the Atlanta airport. They have spent, and are spending many, many dollars to study everything from mag-lev to HSR. No dollars allocated to actually move any dirt... Not sure what is driving the allure of Chattanooga. It's not THAT big a metropolis.
Brookwood Station is small and not in a great spot, but it's hardly a critical bottleneck. I have used it and have put people on and off the train there many times. It gets a bit tight, but it's not horrible.
The Crescent is fixable without having to jump through a million hoops and do a lot of spending. Here's how:
Sam1The plan confirms what we suspected, i.e. the majority of riders are on the train between Atlanta and New York or various segments in between. The loads south of Atlanta are light. Not many business people amongst the passengers (approximately 11 per cent).
My guess, based on personal observation, is the vast majority of the business travelers using the Crescent travel between Charlottesville and the NEC stops. The only "business" travel south of Charlotesville is railfans.
Sam1Think Megabus! Then think Amtrak! If Megabus can sert-up a curbside bus service out of Atlanta, why could Amtrak not do the same thing for a Thruway service?
So, why couldn't Megabus be the "Thruway" service? Amtrak stops many more places than Megabus does in the region, so Megabus would likely think of Amtrak as a feeder to their Atlanta hub.
oltmannd Some answers: Atlanta has been thinking about a new multimodal station for years. It would serve MARTA, the local commuter bus network and Amtrak, plus any new rail service that might mysteriously pop up. It has just received another push as there are commercial developers interested. There still is no public money allocated to do the public part of the project, so don't hold your breath. The problem for the Crescent is that this station would be off the route of the train. The Crescent would have to back out, or in, using a very busy part of the the Atlanta rail network. This problem has a non-trivial solution. Georgia has a very big bug up its you-know-what for connecting Chattanooga to the Atlanta airport. They have spent, and are spending many, many dollars to study everything from mag-lev to HSR. No dollars allocated to actually move any dirt... Not sure what is driving the allure of Chattanooga. It's not THAT big a metropolis. Brookwood Station is small and not in a great spot, but it's hardly a critical bottleneck. I have used it and have put people on and off the train there many times. It gets a bit tight, but it's not horrible. The Crescent is fixable without having to jump through a million hoops and do a lot of spending. Here's how: Short turn the sleepers, the diner, a couple coaches, and a locomotive in Atlanta. Run time NY to ATL is 16 hours. No need for dorm space! Just selling a couple of of the freed up roomettes would pay for NS's switch fee. (you build the train: locos, baggage, thru coaches, lounge, ATL coaches, diner, sleepers. The inbound crew makes the cut behind the first locomotive. The outbound crew makes the cut after the lounge car and does the departure test. Inbound crew gets ATL cars, wyes them and puts them on the storage track after the thru train leaves.) Partner up with Megabus's Atlanta hub and get them to extend their route 2 miles up Peachtree St. to Brookwood Station and use the drop-off loop in front of the station. Put them in your schedules and offer through ticketing. Using the Brookwood Station to start and end their routes gives them a waiting room. This is a clear win-win. Add a suburban stop in NE metro Atlanta. Anywhere from the Chamblee or Doraville MARTA stop to Buford would do. Examine the timing of the train to see if you can't make the service more useful for local travel along the Piedmont. Huge numbers of people live along the portions of the route now served in the dead of night. Advancing the northbound train a couple of hours means you'd get to Charlotte before midnight. Delaying the southbound a couple of hours means you'd have an early morning train from Charlotte to Atlanta. This is more important than New Orleans timing.
Good thoughts? Why not kill the overnight sleeper train, hawk the sleepers, diners, etc., and run a day coach and business class train from DC to Atlanta, ala the Pennsylvanian, with connecting service from New York? If there is a market for it, run a day train from Atlanta to New Orleans. A connection with the DC train would be out, but there don't appear to be that many connecting passengers.
Unfortunately, with the new equipment on order, nothing is likely to change. The politicos who authorized the new cars will insist that Amtrak continue to run the Crescent and other long distance trains. They probably believe that reducing the Crescent's annual loss from $46.1 million to $44.6 million a smart business decision.
Sam1 seems to want to overlook the fact that Amtrak is first and foremost a political creation, and as such is often constrained in any attempts to operate as a for-profit business. The existence of the long-distance trains is the price that Amtrak has to pay in order to receive appropriations for the NEC and other corridor-like operations. Consider the hue and cry that was raised several years ago when the "Texas Eagle" and several other long-haul trains were put on the block. Some of the trains were discontinued, but the continued operation of the "Texas Eagle" can reasonably be attributed to raw politics.
I do agree that the long-distance trains should be discontinued but I'm realistic enough to know that enough political weight will be thrown around to prevent it from happening.
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