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The People's Republic of Pullmans
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<p>A look at the Crescent's schedule shows that there are four trains enroute for all but about 45 minutes in a 24 hour day. They all sell space to and from every station except the northbound train would not sell space north of Alexandra. For example, at 2:30 p.m. Number 19 would be just shy of arriving in Newark, whilst Number 19 that had left the previous day would be between Tuscaloosa and Meridian. The northbound schedule is similar. They all sell space in the sleepers.</p> <p>Normally there are eight Crescent sleepers on the road each day. They have 15 revenue spaces times 8 equals 120 spaces times 365 days equals 43,800 spaces or 87,600 seats assuming two people to a space. Push comes to shove a bedroom can accommodate more than two people.</p> <p>I calculated an average load factor based on Amtrak information. Averages need to be looked at with a jaundice eye. One can drown in an average of six inches of water. Nevertheless, it suggests that Amtrak's sleeper space is not bursting at the seems, except during peak periods as I noted. </p> <p>Without an array, it is not possible to calculate a variance and standard deviation. It cannot be calculated from an average unless you have the array that was used to calculate the average. That means Amtrak would have to give us the passenger load for each day. It doesn't.</p> <p>On what days did the Crescent have only one sleeper? Making a claim without support does not carry a lot of weight.</p> <p>The key question for a business is whether the cost of adding incremental space (coach or sleeper) would be offset by the incremental revenues. If it only reduces the amount of loss, it is not a good business decision. Without access to Amtrak's assumptions, i.e. equipment cost, operating cost, turn aways, etc., it is impossible to know whether adding additional equipment would be a good business decision. I realize that making a good business decision is foreign to a company that loses more than $1.3 billion per year, but it is a goal they should strive to achieve. </p> <p>I am a bit suspect of Amtrak's projected numbers. I cannot see that they have been audited or validated by an independent party, i.e. quality control specialists, internal auditors, consultants, etc.</p> <p>The optimum business decision for Amtrak's sleeping car issue is to drop the long distance trains. They are a drag on the company. As an article in today's issue of Bloomberg.com makes clear, the future for passenger rail in the United States, whether it is hoisted by Amtrak or another operator, is in high density corridors.</p> <p>You mentioned your airlines. I would be keen to know whether you work for one or several airlines, in what capacity, and a bit about your educational background. </p>
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