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<p>[quote user="daveklepper"]</p> <p>Are not the sleepers that Amtrak does operate often sold out? Is not Amtrak acutally short of sleepers? Should not there be at least one sleeper on the overnight Newport News - Boston train, actually an extension of the old Federal service? For Richmond - Boston and DC - Boston travel also? [/quote]</p> <p>It depends on what you mean by often. The sleepers are sold out, at least on some trains, during the high seasons, i.e. summer, Thanksgiving, and Christmas. But throughout the year probably not!</p> <p>Although Amtrak's monthly operating reports provide an easy way to calculate the average load factor for a train or service line (long distance trains), they don't provide information to calculate easily the average load factor for the sleepers. It can, however, within reason be done train by train.</p> <p>I don't have the time or inclination to calculate the average sleeping car load factor for all the long distance trains. However, I pulled together some rough numbers for the Crescent, which had a 5.1 per cent increase in sleeping car revenues (higher per mile fares) in FY11 offset by a 3.2 per cent decline in sleeping car passengers.</p> <p>There are four Crescents between the end points (two southbound and two northbound) during the schedule day, and there are 365 schedule days during a normal year. Based on my having ridden the train last year, each Crescent has two Viewliner sleeping cars. Maxed out each car can carry 32 passengers in 15 spaces. On average the Crescents offer 93,440 seats and 43,800 spaces during the year.</p> <p>During FY11 the Crescent carried 32,616 sleeping car passengers for an average load factor of 34.9 per cent (seats) and 74.5 per cent (spaces). The former number assumes that every seat was occupied; the latter assumes that there was only one person per space. The actual average load factor would be in between these numbers. Again, if my experience is any indicator, most of the roomettes are occupied by one person whilst most of the bedrooms are occupied by two people. My conclusion is that the average sleeping car load factor for the Crescent is no more than 50 per cent.</p> <p>Last year I rode the train from D.C. to New Orleans in August. My car appeared to have a relatively high occupancy rate from D.C. to Atlanta, but south of Atlanta there were only five people in the car. Only two of us rode through to New Orleans. I suspect that the average load factor south of Atlanta is lower than the average load factor between New York and Atlanta, which means that any extra capacity probably would only be needed between New York and Atlanta.</p> <p>The Crescent is just one of Amtrak's long distance trains. The numbers for the other trains would be different. How much different is unknown, but I suspect not a great deal, with the possible exception of the Lake Shore Limited. </p> <p>Determining whether to purchase additional sleepers is a margins exercise, i.e. will the marginal revenues generated by the incremental increase in sales offset the marginal costs of acquiring and operating each additional car? I don't know and, furthermore, Amtrak's public information does not give us enough information to make a determination. </p> <p>If my memory serves me correctly, the average price for a new Viewliner type sleeper is in the neighborhood of $2.2 to $2.7 million. The cost to Amtrak (federal taxpayers) would include financing. With financing over 30 years, which probably would be rolled several times, the cost of the cars could range from $3.2 to $6.4 million. The major variance driver is the cost of the financing. Using today's borrowing rates for the federal government as a benchmark, the output would be the lower number, but using the Treasury's average rates over the past 30 years, a more realistic assumption, the cost would be considerably higher.</p> <p>Forgetting about the incremental cost of operating an additional car(s), which I don't know how to obtain given Amtrak does not make the information available to the public, unless one wants to file a FOIA request, the revenue required to offset the marginal operating costs would be considerable. Each additional car would have to attract a substantial increase in riders. </p> <p>If the issue is additional capacity for the high season, as per above, buying additional sleeping car space does not appear to be a good business decision. </p>
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