Don,
Here is one suggested idea that Amtrak did consider and rejected because it would cause a decrease in revenue. The idea is discussed in the performance improvement plan on page 70:
- 70 -
Converting one or more Silver Service trains into connected corridor services
would have significantly reduced revenues due to loss of high revenue passengers traveling
longer distances without producing material cost savings or service to new markets (since most
portions of the Silver Service routes already have daytime services utilized by short-distance
passengers).
Sam1 Oltmannd Many of the postings to the Trains forums are well thought out. Your two most recent ones are outstanding. Do you think anyone from Amtrak reads these forums for workable ideas?
Oltmannd
Many of the postings to the Trains forums are well thought out. Your two most recent ones are outstanding. Do you think anyone from Amtrak reads these forums for workable ideas?
-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/)
V.Payne So you would loose all birmingham to greensboro traffic if there was a overnight stop in Atlanta between two day trains. A large advantage over driving is traveling while you might normally be sleeping.
So you would loose all birmingham to greensboro traffic if there was a overnight stop in Atlanta between two day trains. A large advantage over driving is traveling while you might normally be sleeping.
Yes. Both passengers this month would have to find another way.
But, you would gain all kinds of traffic between and among Atlanta, Spartansburg, Greenville, Charlotte and Greensboro.
A large advantage of flying is that you get there in time to go to bed.
John WR Don, I understand that you would keep the long distance trains but alter the schedules to make them better serve the areas they pass through, especially in the East. Perhaps you can clarify what you mean. Amtrak operated 4 daily trains between New York and southeast cities along the Atlantic coast. Train 89, the Palmetto, leaves NYP at 615 AM and ends at Savannah, GA at 9:03 PM providing daytime service to most cities on its route during the daytime or evening. Train 79, the Carolinian, leaves NYP at 7:05 AM and ends at Charlotte, NC at 8:12 PM. Train 91, the Silver Star, leaves NYP at 11:02AM and arrives at Southern Pines NC at 10:30 PM. It continues all night through the rest of NC, all of SC and GA and at daybreak, 6:55 AM, arrives in Jacksonville FL. It continues all day through Florida until it gets to Miami at 6:05 PM. Train 97, the Silver Meteor, leaves NYP at 3:15PM and arrives in Rocky Mount, NC at 11:56PM. Rocky Mount is the first stop in North Carolina. It travels through the Carolinas all night and gets to Savannah at 6:44AM and Jacksonville at 9:23AM which allows time for breakfast before you get off. It ends at Miami at 6:55PM. Would you change these schedules? If so, How? Or would you do something else?
I understand that you would keep the long distance trains but alter the schedules to make them better serve the areas they pass through, especially in the East.
Perhaps you can clarify what you mean. Amtrak operated 4 daily trains between New York and southeast cities along the Atlantic coast.
Train 89, the Palmetto, leaves NYP at 615 AM and ends at Savannah, GA at 9:03 PM providing daytime service to most cities on its route during the daytime or evening.
Train 79, the Carolinian, leaves NYP at 7:05 AM and ends at Charlotte, NC at 8:12 PM.
Train 91, the Silver Star, leaves NYP at 11:02AM and arrives at Southern Pines NC at 10:30 PM. It continues all night through the rest of NC, all of SC and GA and at daybreak, 6:55 AM, arrives in Jacksonville FL. It continues all day through Florida until it gets to Miami at 6:05 PM.
Train 97, the Silver Meteor, leaves NYP at 3:15PM and arrives in Rocky Mount, NC at 11:56PM. Rocky Mount is the first stop in North Carolina. It travels through the Carolinas all night and gets to Savannah at 6:44AM and Jacksonville at 9:23AM which allows time for breakfast before you get off. It ends at Miami at 6:55PM.
Would you change these schedules? If so, How? Or would you do something else?
Once upon a time, the market for the Silver Service trains was to carry people from the northeast to Miami (predominantly) for the warmth and sun. Three things have changed in the past 30 years.
V.Payne Sure seems most buses run through the night. Why would a day train be better? If you want to cross the new overnight stop your trip gets 10 hours longer. Even megabus does one of their two DC to TN runs overnight, and they charge more for the overnight run.
Sure seems most buses run through the night. Why would a day train be better? If you want to cross the new overnight stop your trip gets 10 hours longer. Even megabus does one of their two DC to TN runs overnight, and they charge more for the overnight run.
Nearly all the Megabuses run during the day, at least out of ATL. There is one overnight to NOL. Day trains are better than overnight, because nobody wants to start or end a trip at 3AM. How many people get on the train in Philly for Boston between 1:00 and 4:00 AM vs. 1:00 and 4:00 PM?
The Crescent's route though NC and SC is through the high density Piedmont region. The route south of Atlanta is rural, except for Birmingham. So why does the train hit the PIedmont in the dead of night, but has a good schedule at Aniston AL?
The Crescent is still running the business person's "streamliner" schedule of the 1950s. The business men don't ride the Crescent anymore. In 1950 (and even 1980...) the Piedmont was pretty rural. Not so anymore.....The schedule needs to be tailored to fit the current market (i.e. all those people in the Piedmont who would like to get to the northeast)
There are only a handful of people who ride the Crescent through ATL each day. You are talking about a 30 hour trip from NOL to NYP vs 3 hours flying. These are not time sensitive travelers. You wouldn't lose many if you added 10 hours to their trip. In fact, you might even gain a few since a night in a hotel is less than half what it costs on the train - the overall fare would be lower.
John WR Paul MilenkovicI don't see it as a "false dichotomy" of discontinuing long-distance trains. I see it as a question of what gets priority? What gets first claim on new equipment purchases and other resources? Supposing we do make it a question of priority, Paul, and as a result long distance trains are eroded to the point of extinction. How then do we maintain a sufficient national consensus to make short distance trains possible?
Paul MilenkovicI don't see it as a "false dichotomy" of discontinuing long-distance trains. I see it as a question of what gets priority? What gets first claim on new equipment purchases and other resources?
Supposing we do make it a question of priority, Paul, and as a result long distance trains are eroded to the point of extinction. How then do we maintain a sufficient national consensus to make short distance trains possible?
There is nothing cast in steel that says the LD trains have to operate on the streamliner schedules of the 1950s. The LD routes, particularly in the east can be reconfigured into day train routes that better connect the middle of the routes to the end points rather than best serving end-to-end travel. This is especially true in the Southeast and Florida where the population has grown enormously since Amtrak's inception. Amtrak either hasn't noticed or pretends not to notice.
Keep the route - and keep the political support. Fix the service - and improve the bottom line.
Paul MilenkovicI see it as a question of what gets priority? What gets first claim on new equipment purchases and other resources?
It is pretty obvious that the priorities are set myopically. Who are the primary beneficiaries of the recent equipment order? The Amtrak employees.
Amtrak just set a ridership record. About 2/3 of the additional passengers over last year are NEC coach passengers. Where is the new capacity for the largest growth segment of Amtrak's business?
The tail is wagging the dog.
Sam1Good thoughts? Why not kill the overnight sleeper train, hawk the sleepers, diners, etc., and run a day coach and business class train from DC to Atlanta, ala the Pennsylvanian, with connecting service from New York? If there is a market for it, run a day train from Atlanta to New Orleans. A connection with the DC train would be out, but there don't appear to be that many connecting passengers.
I would think that would be even better, but if you had to keep it roughly on it's existing schedule.....
If you did split it and made it two day trains with an overnight connection in Atlanta, you could do a deal with the local mid-town Hampton or whatever, providing a special rate with hotel shuttle to and from the station. Cheaper than a sleeper and you'd get to see the whole route during daylight.
You could probably do this or similar with all the east coast trains.
Paul Milenkovic CSSHEGEWISCH Sam1 seems to want to overlook the fact that Amtrak is first and foremost a political creation, and as such is often constrained in any attempts to operate as a for-profit business. The existence of the long-distance trains is the price that Amtrak has to pay in order to receive appropriations for the NEC and other corridor-like operations. And who is driving the politics? NARP? People such as us? Yes, Amtrak is dictated to by Congress, and Congress, on matters of passenger trains is influenced by who? I don't see it as a "false dichotomy" of discontinuing long-distance trains. I see it as a question of what gets priority? What gets first claim on new equipment purchases and other resources?
CSSHEGEWISCH Sam1 seems to want to overlook the fact that Amtrak is first and foremost a political creation, and as such is often constrained in any attempts to operate as a for-profit business. The existence of the long-distance trains is the price that Amtrak has to pay in order to receive appropriations for the NEC and other corridor-like operations.
Sam1 seems to want to overlook the fact that Amtrak is first and foremost a political creation, and as such is often constrained in any attempts to operate as a for-profit business. The existence of the long-distance trains is the price that Amtrak has to pay in order to receive appropriations for the NEC and other corridor-like operations.
And who is driving the politics? NARP? People such as us? Yes, Amtrak is dictated to by Congress, and Congress, on matters of passenger trains is influenced by who?
I don't see it as a "false dichotomy" of discontinuing long-distance trains. I see it as a question of what gets priority? What gets first claim on new equipment purchases and other resources?
"Unfortunately, with the new equipment on order, nothing is likely to change. The politicos who authorized the new cars will insist that Amtrak continue to run the Crescent and other long distance trains. They probably believe that reducing the Crescent's annual loss from $46.1 million to $44.6 million a smart business decision."
That's what Sam1 said. I recognize that Amtrak is a political entity controlled by Washington politicos. But a bad business decision is a bad business decision no matter who is running the organization.
Not only was it raw politics that saved the Texas Eagle, the same political pressure was used to change it to a daily train, add a stop at Mineola, and institute the Hearland Flyer. The senator who pushed for the Eagle and Flyer has never been on a train, to the best of my knowledge, except as a publicity stunt.
Frank and Jesse had the decency, when robbing a bank, to wave guns under the noses of the people being robbed. Most of them probably figured out quickly that it was going to be a bad hair day. Many politicians, however, ram through legislation in the middle of the night, frequently attached to another bill to mask their intent, and steal the wealth of their constituents without their even know it. That's how the Texas Eagle was saved.
If GM "killed the electric car", what am I doing standing next to an EV-1, a half a block from the WSOR tracks?
Sam1 seems to want to overlook the fact that Amtrak is first and foremost a political creation, and as such is often constrained in any attempts to operate as a for-profit business. The existence of the long-distance trains is the price that Amtrak has to pay in order to receive appropriations for the NEC and other corridor-like operations. Consider the hue and cry that was raised several years ago when the "Texas Eagle" and several other long-haul trains were put on the block. Some of the trains were discontinued, but the continued operation of the "Texas Eagle" can reasonably be attributed to raw politics.
I do agree that the long-distance trains should be discontinued but I'm realistic enough to know that enough political weight will be thrown around to prevent it from happening.
oltmannd Some answers: Atlanta has been thinking about a new multimodal station for years. It would serve MARTA, the local commuter bus network and Amtrak, plus any new rail service that might mysteriously pop up. It has just received another push as there are commercial developers interested. There still is no public money allocated to do the public part of the project, so don't hold your breath. The problem for the Crescent is that this station would be off the route of the train. The Crescent would have to back out, or in, using a very busy part of the the Atlanta rail network. This problem has a non-trivial solution. Georgia has a very big bug up its you-know-what for connecting Chattanooga to the Atlanta airport. They have spent, and are spending many, many dollars to study everything from mag-lev to HSR. No dollars allocated to actually move any dirt... Not sure what is driving the allure of Chattanooga. It's not THAT big a metropolis. Brookwood Station is small and not in a great spot, but it's hardly a critical bottleneck. I have used it and have put people on and off the train there many times. It gets a bit tight, but it's not horrible. The Crescent is fixable without having to jump through a million hoops and do a lot of spending. Here's how: Short turn the sleepers, the diner, a couple coaches, and a locomotive in Atlanta. Run time NY to ATL is 16 hours. No need for dorm space! Just selling a couple of of the freed up roomettes would pay for NS's switch fee. (you build the train: locos, baggage, thru coaches, lounge, ATL coaches, diner, sleepers. The inbound crew makes the cut behind the first locomotive. The outbound crew makes the cut after the lounge car and does the departure test. Inbound crew gets ATL cars, wyes them and puts them on the storage track after the thru train leaves.) Partner up with Megabus's Atlanta hub and get them to extend their route 2 miles up Peachtree St. to Brookwood Station and use the drop-off loop in front of the station. Put them in your schedules and offer through ticketing. Using the Brookwood Station to start and end their routes gives them a waiting room. This is a clear win-win. Add a suburban stop in NE metro Atlanta. Anywhere from the Chamblee or Doraville MARTA stop to Buford would do. Examine the timing of the train to see if you can't make the service more useful for local travel along the Piedmont. Huge numbers of people live along the portions of the route now served in the dead of night. Advancing the northbound train a couple of hours means you'd get to Charlotte before midnight. Delaying the southbound a couple of hours means you'd have an early morning train from Charlotte to Atlanta. This is more important than New Orleans timing.
Some answers:
Atlanta has been thinking about a new multimodal station for years. It would serve MARTA, the local commuter bus network and Amtrak, plus any new rail service that might mysteriously pop up. It has just received another push as there are commercial developers interested. There still is no public money allocated to do the public part of the project, so don't hold your breath.
The problem for the Crescent is that this station would be off the route of the train. The Crescent would have to back out, or in, using a very busy part of the the Atlanta rail network. This problem has a non-trivial solution.
Georgia has a very big bug up its you-know-what for connecting Chattanooga to the Atlanta airport. They have spent, and are spending many, many dollars to study everything from mag-lev to HSR. No dollars allocated to actually move any dirt... Not sure what is driving the allure of Chattanooga. It's not THAT big a metropolis.
Brookwood Station is small and not in a great spot, but it's hardly a critical bottleneck. I have used it and have put people on and off the train there many times. It gets a bit tight, but it's not horrible.
The Crescent is fixable without having to jump through a million hoops and do a lot of spending. Here's how:
Good thoughts? Why not kill the overnight sleeper train, hawk the sleepers, diners, etc., and run a day coach and business class train from DC to Atlanta, ala the Pennsylvanian, with connecting service from New York? If there is a market for it, run a day train from Atlanta to New Orleans. A connection with the DC train would be out, but there don't appear to be that many connecting passengers.
Unfortunately, with the new equipment on order, nothing is likely to change. The politicos who authorized the new cars will insist that Amtrak continue to run the Crescent and other long distance trains. They probably believe that reducing the Crescent's annual loss from $46.1 million to $44.6 million a smart business decision.
Sam1Think Megabus! Then think Amtrak! If Megabus can sert-up a curbside bus service out of Atlanta, why could Amtrak not do the same thing for a Thruway service?
So, why couldn't Megabus be the "Thruway" service? Amtrak stops many more places than Megabus does in the region, so Megabus would likely think of Amtrak as a feeder to their Atlanta hub.
Sam1The plan confirms what we suspected, i.e. the majority of riders are on the train between Atlanta and New York or various segments in between. The loads south of Atlanta are light. Not many business people amongst the passengers (approximately 11 per cent).
My guess, based on personal observation, is the vast majority of the business travelers using the Crescent travel between Charlottesville and the NEC stops. The only "business" travel south of Charlotesville is railfans.
I have taken the time to read the Crescent PRIIA Section 210 Performance Improvement Plan. It appears to be long on hopes but short on hard data.
My first question is whether any of the plan has been implemented. It was published supposedly in 2011, and I assume any of its recommendations that could have been birthed would have seen the light of day by now.
The plan confirms what we suspected, i.e. the majority of riders are on the train between Atlanta and New York or various segments in between. The loads south of Atlanta are light. Not many business people amongst the passengers (approximately 11 per cent).
The authors claim that the train sells out on a regular basis, but the don't give us any hard data, i.e. per cent of days it sells out, wanna-be travelers who are turned away because it is sold out, revenue loss due to sell outs, etc. They do say, however, that adding additional equipment would increase annual ridership by 38,300, which in turn would result in additional revenues $1.2 million and a reduction in costs of $300, 000 for a net positive financial impact $1.5 million. However, they don't give the reader any insights into how these projections were derived. Accordingly, without some insight into the methodology used to gin the numbers, I am skeptical about accepting them.
The Brookwood Station appears to be a legitimate bottleneck. Apparently Amtrak is pinning its hopes on persuading the city and perhaps Norfolk Southern to come up with the money to build a new one. What progress, if any, has been made on this effort is unknown to this Texan. However, if asked, I would direct the city fathers and mothers, since I doubt Amtrak will be able to come up with the money for a new station, and I would be surprised if NS comes up with any coins, to look at Fort Worth's Intermodal Transit Center for some inspiration. It serves Amtrak, Greyhound, Trinity Railway Express, and the T, which is Fort Worth's local transit system.
One of the wishes of the planning group was to establish Thruway connecting buses to and from the Crescent's stop in Atlanta. One route was to have been between Atlanta and Chattanooga. Through the looking glass the planners envisioned 17,400 Thruway passengers between the two cities. They would generate $2.3 million in annual revenues, offset by $1.7 million in costs, for a net positive financial impact of $600,000. The average fare between Atlanta and Chattanooga, presumably, would be $132. How the planners derived these numbers is a mystery. Moreover, what made them believe that people in Chattanooga would want to ride a bus south to Atlanta to catch a northbound train, although some of them presumably would be interested in the southbound train, is a mystery. Again, the bottlenecks at Brookwood appear to be a legitimate challenge, although whether they are insurmountable is unknown. In any case, whilst the planners were thinking (presumably) about how to overcome these problems, Megabus stole the show. It offers eight trips between Atlanta and Chattanooga for fares as low as $6, although these probably are teaser fares.
The last think that caught my attention is the fact that up to 8 of the 24 roomettes on the Crescent are blocked for crew space. Wow! Did anyone think about this when they were ordering the cars? Why did Amtrak not order single level dormitory cars when it placed its Viewliner order(s)?
I favor properly regulated, competitive markets, as opposed to government run commercial enterprises? Think Megabus! Then think Amtrak! If Megabus can sert-up a curbside bus service out of Atlanta, why could Amtrak not do the same thing for a Thruway service?
Sam1's Quote: The solution to Amtrak's long distance train issue is to drop the product line. That would be the decision of a competitive business. Unfortunately, Amtrak is not a competitive business. It is a ward of the state and operates the long distance trains for political rather than economic reasons...
I would tend to disagree. The avoidable costs and equipment capital cost for the Crescent after the PRIIA recommendations are right about the level of the interstate cross-subsidy and the governmental accident cost for the intercity interstate segments. See my other thread, I created a model that matches Amtrak's PRIIA numbers at two points based on my idea of a first order analysis.
Sam1During FY11 the Crescent carried 32,616 sleeping car passengers for an average load factor of 34.9 per cent (seats) and 74.5 per cent (spaces). The former number assumes that every seat was occupied; the latter assumes that there was only one person per space. The actual average load factor would be in between these numbers. Again, if my experience is any indicator, most of the roomettes are occupied by one person whilst most of the bedrooms are occupied by two people. My conclusion is that the average sleeping car load factor for the Crescent is no more than 50 per cent.
The Crescent is a perfect example. If Amtrak was so short of sleepers, they could short-turn them (and a coach or two) at Atlanta. The switching and servicing cost would be worth the available space. The train is a lightly patronized day train through rural AL and MS south of Atlanta (in fact, in pre-Amtrak days, the Southern only ran it three days a week)
What should we concluded from the fact that this doesn't happen?
blue streak 1 It appears that passenger load factors are a bucket of worms. I cannot imagine the accounting nightmare this variable of return for a fixed cost durable goods figures must pose. Not simple double entry ? Neither does my accountant daughter
It appears that passenger load factors are a bucket of worms. I cannot imagine the accounting nightmare this variable of return for a fixed cost durable goods figures must pose. Not simple double entry ? Neither does my accountant daughter
There are many ways to look at the issue. However, without access to Amtrak's accounting records, it is impossible to determine the need for additional equipment. It is equally impossible to determine the incremental cost of adding another car and therefore the incremental revenue that would be needed to justify doing so.
Amtrak knows or should know how many people are turned away upon attempting to book a sleeper. It should know the number of days the current equipment is sold out and what segments caused it to be sold out. It should also know the cost of operating a sleeper. And it should know what revenues the sleeper is generating. The current data, including the cost information, is easy to get assuming Amtrak has good accounting records, and I believe it does. What's not so easy is predicting whether the company can generate enough incremental revenues from the increment increase space to offset the incremental cost of the new equipment.
As a matter of interest how did you determine that the cost of the new sleepers is in the neighborhood of $3.5 million?
Having recently traveled in SEasia train travel in " pullman class' is for the welloff locals ,but great fun for the trainlovers not just the backbackers as long as you do not need to be any fast.
China can be dificuilt as to travel in as it has so many people and they rank outsiders as low and fairgame
but it can be fun or manly depending on the logals attitude to you and visa versa
It appears that passenger load factors are a bucket of worms. I want to approach this load factor question from another direction. I believe that neither of us has really looked at it closely so here goes.
Assumptions -- 1 SINGLE LEVEL sleeping car NYP - ATL - NOL Octtober 16 fares (1st available ) Will use max and minimum passengers in a full car.
1. 12 single occupancy roomettes and 3 two people in a bedroom.= 18 passengers. Space load factor = 100%. Passenger load factor what 100% or 50%
2. same space occupancy full but at maximum number of passengers = 36 passengers space load factor still 100%. Now what is the passenger load factor?. 100% ? 200% ?
2a. Full space but split NYP - ATL + ATL - NOL minimum passengers = min 36 max 72 & if space is full then space load factor is 100% but what are the passenger load factors ? 100% ? 200 %, 400% ?
2. 18 passengers passage fare $223 to NOL Roomettee $553, Bedroom $814= $13092
3. 36 Passengers = $17106
4. Now split NYP - ATL 18 pass Passage $210, Roomette $425, bedroom $716 = $11028
5. 36 pass = $14808
6. ATL - NOL 18 Pass passage $70, Roomette $102, Bedroom $142 = $2910
7. 36 passengers = $4170.
Comparing either ex 2 with 4+ 6 or ex 3 with 5+7 we find most of fare is colllected NYP - ATL.
In conclusion taking the number of passenger and extrapolating to any kind of load factor is futile. Futher the fares are greatly biased higher on the north of Atlanta fares. Did not look at WASH but suspect same bias still there. Therefore the loads south of Atlanta do not matter as much as north.
Of all the eastern LD routes the Crescent north of ATL is probably the most convient for potential business travelers due to the departure and arrival times at ATL, WASH, BAL, & less so at PHL. However until enough space is available for the 1 - 5 days that business people usually know they need to travel that market can never be examined. WASH is always so because of being the nation's capital.
I cannot imagine the accounting nightmare this variable of return for a fixed cost durable goods figures must pose. Not simple double entry ? Neither does my accountant daughter
Sam you are mixing load with a load factor. You rode from WASH DC - New Orleans. You were one passenger on segments that you consider to be 2 passengers available.
Between NYP and new orleans there is only 30 spaces on each train available ( assumiing the normal 2 cars ). Since WASH - ATL is the night time portion those spaces are the preminum and dictate the number of sleeper spaces passengers want. That leaves the un needed spaces ATL - NOL empty. I'll admit That lowers the revenue passengers miles down but not the revenue in same amount. Night time charges are greater per mile than the daY time charges check WASH - ATL vs NYP -NOL. vs miles
That being the case when the new sleepers on order are in service AMTRAK can place 3 - 4 sleepers NYP - ATL , then remove all but 1 and add them back on the northbound.that night. Removing multiple sleepers at ATL would economically justify the switching costs where as removing just one does not.
One sidebar that is not addressed is how many sleeper spaces are now taken by off duty crew membeers ? The addition of baggage - dorm cars will also increase the number of available spaces.
If you look at the 10 months of this FY you will find that all the sleeper route of the Star has about the same number of passengers as the Crescent. The extra sleeper on the Meteor & Lakeshore has that figure about 40 - 50% more and the Cardinal that operates with one sleeper 3 days a week but almost always sold out has a reduced number.
Sounds to me that more sleeper space much needed.
Next the $3.5 M cost of each sleeper vs added revenue from that space including initial coach fare needs to be computed but how far out fares should be checked is up to much debate. Maybe a comparsion of 6 months vs 1 month??.
V.Payne The Crescent PRIIA report says they are using Roomette spaces as dorm rooms. http://www.amtrak.com/ccurl/570/756/2011%20PRIIA%20210%20Report%2009-26-11_final.pdf Page 33 diagrams 17 Roomettes available to the public and 6 Bedrooms, but that is after the improvements, currently I think they sell 16 Roomettes.Total rooms 22, Max Occupancy 44, yielding 44.260 million seat miles available or 22.130 million room miles. Page 20 shows an average sleeper length of haul of 755 miles and 33,766 sleeper passengers = 25.493 million sleeper passenger miles in a year. I typically assume 1.4 passengers per party, so 18.209 million room miles required. 18.209/22.130 = 82% occupancy of rooms could be plausible. The data to know for sure is not public. As to the degree that the Roomette is really a single passenger accommodation they did change the name. See my paper on the US Intercity Market for a better breakdown of the ultimate marginal costs. I of course have a spreadsheet for that...
The Crescent PRIIA report says they are using Roomette spaces as dorm rooms.
http://www.amtrak.com/ccurl/570/756/2011%20PRIIA%20210%20Report%2009-26-11_final.pdf
Page 33 diagrams 17 Roomettes available to the public and 6 Bedrooms, but that is after the improvements, currently I think they sell 16 Roomettes.Total rooms 22, Max Occupancy 44, yielding 44.260 million seat miles available or 22.130 million room miles.
Page 20 shows an average sleeper length of haul of 755 miles and 33,766 sleeper passengers = 25.493 million sleeper passenger miles in a year.
I typically assume 1.4 passengers per party, so 18.209 million room miles required. 18.209/22.130 = 82% occupancy of rooms could be plausible. The data to know for sure is not public. As to the degree that the Roomette is really a single passenger accommodation they did change the name.
See my paper on the US Intercity Market for a better breakdown of the ultimate marginal costs. I of course have a spreadsheet for that...
I overlooked the crew occupancy of the roomettes! In any case, we are not that far off in an estimate of high end occupancy numbers, i.e. 74.5% vs 82%. As you noted; as I noted, the occupancy rate today, which would be the basis for determining whether adding additional would be a good business decision, is a range that could be plausible.
Without access to Amtrak's accounting, financial, and operational records, it is impossible to answer the key questions to know whether adding equipment (sleepers) is a good business decision. Determining that a losing business line (long distance trains) would lose less money but still lose money a good business decision does not make.
The solution to Amtrak's long distance train issue is to drop the product line. That would be the decision of a competitive business. Unfortunately, Amtrak is not a competitive business. It is a ward of the state and operates the long distance trains for political rather than economic reasons.
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