https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/22/21334860/tesla-cybertruck-factory-austin-texas-location-model-y Tesla is building a new plant in Austin. Unfortunately, it will not be served by any railroads. All the parts and all the finished cars and pickup trucks will leave the plant on trucks. This plant's central location will allow Tesla to eliminate the remaining rail shipments they use because it is much closer to the east coast. In addition, this plant will also produce the Tesla Semi. Tesla will use the Semi to deliver their cars, making truck delivery much more economical and cost competitive with rail. As Tesla sets the trend and others follow, it is likely that the mighty auto rack could fall into obscurity, just as the 86' boxcar already has. What do you think? Will railroads still participate in fulfilling the transport needs of the auto industry in the future?
ttrraaffiicc https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/22/21334860/tesla-cybertruck-factory-austin-texas-location-model-y Tesla is building a new plant in Austin. Unfortunately, it will not be served by any railroads. All the parts and all the finished cars and pickup trucks will leave the plant on trucks. This plant's central location will allow Tesla to eliminate the remaining rail shipments they use because it is much closer to the east coast. In addition, this plant will also produce the Tesla Semi. Tesla will use the Semi to deliver their cars, making truck delivery much more economical and cost competitive with rail. As Tesla sets the trend and others follow, it is likely that the mighty auto rack could fall into obscurity, just as the 86' boxcar already has. What do you think? Will railroads still participate in fulfilling the transport needs of the auto industry in the future?
https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/22/21334860/tesla-cybertruck-factory-austin-texas-location-model-y
The railroads recaptured finished auto traffic from trucks in the past, they could do it again. Of course, that would require some marketing prowness and initiative that is very much lacking in the thouroughly PSRed Class I's these days.
Musk seems to think that his self-driving electric semi will one day replace railroads, so I am not surprised that he is planning for a non-rail supply chain. We'll see how realistic those cost comparisons actually are in the current real world.
FYI - much of the auto parts traffic that used to move in 86' boxcars still moves by rail for much of its journey, it just goes in intermodal containers.
Greetings from Alberta
-an Articulate Malcontent
But if autoracks go away, what will Homeland Security have to tranport the shackled.
Semper Vaporo
Pkgs.
SD70DudeFYI - much of the auto parts traffic that used to move in 86' boxcars still moves by rail for much of its journey, it just goes in intermodal containers.
That's not entirely true. If it were, 86' boxcars would still be in service. In most cases, the parts traffic was lost to trucks or just doesn't exist at all anymore. The reason being that auto plants have become more centralized with parts being sourced from nearby or manufactured directly at the plant.
SD70DudeMusk seems to think that his self-driving electric semi will one day replace railroads, so I am not surprised that he is planning for a non-rail supply chain. We'll see how realistic those cost comparisons actually are in the
He is probably going to be right on this one. Numerous experts including Rod Case seem to agree that electric trucks will signifcantly reduce rail volumes as it will make trucks more economical in a lot of cases.
As Tesla expands its share of the US market, we will see fewer cars transported by rail. tbh, rail delivery of cars doesn't make much sense anyway, given their high value and requirement of flexibility for deliver and inventory.
ttrraaffiicc SD70Dude FYI - much of the auto parts traffic that used to move in 86' boxcars still moves by rail for much of its journey, it just goes in intermodal containers. That's not entirely true. If it were, 86' boxcars would still be in service. In most cases, the parts traffic was lost to trucks or just doesn't exist at all anymore. The reason being that auto plants have become more centralized with parts being sourced from nearby or manufactured directly at the plant.
SD70Dude FYI - much of the auto parts traffic that used to move in 86' boxcars still moves by rail for much of its journey, it just goes in intermodal containers.
Assuming you are correct, and that's a big assumption based on some of your past writings, how is this the fault of the railroads? And how much of the raw materials are still hauled by rail to the relocated parts manufacturing plants? The can't all be next to a steel mill or aluminium smelter.....
ttrraaffiicc SD70Dude Musk seems to think that his self-driving electric semi will one day replace railroads, so I am not surprised that he is planning for a non-rail supply chain. We'll see how realistic those cost comparisons actually are in the He is probably going to be right on this one. Numerous experts including Rod Case seem to agree that electric trucks will signifcantly reduce rail volumes as it will make trucks more economical in a lot of cases. As Tesla expands its share of the US market, we will see fewer cars transported by rail. tbh, rail delivery of cars doesn't make much sense anyway, given their high value and requirement of flexibility for deliver and inventory.
SD70Dude Musk seems to think that his self-driving electric semi will one day replace railroads, so I am not surprised that he is planning for a non-rail supply chain. We'll see how realistic those cost comparisons actually are in the
If it doesn't make sense, then why has it endured for so many decades? Tesla is but one of many manufacturers, and they can't all be located close to the dealerships. And doesn't Tesla's current assembly plant in California have rail service?
You are also discounting finished vehicles that are imported or exported from North America by ship, major terminals are located in Vancouver, Halifax and Los Angeles, to name a few offhand. Not many assembly plants located nearby.....
Elon Musk is somewhat of a 'birdseed' salesman:IMHO. He seems to be able to parlay his grandious ideas, into ventures that rely on other peoples money. His fortunes 'play' on the 'vagueries' of the stock market. His ability to publicise and 'pyramid' schemes seems to be amazing:
FTL:"...The company said its progress in the first half of the year has positioned it for success in the second half as production output continues to improve. Telsa also said it has picked a site for its second U.S. assembly plant, although the location wasn't released. The Austin, Texas, area appeared to be the front-runner but Tulsa, Oklahoma, was a possibility.
The surprising profit, compared with a $408 million loss a year ago, pushed Tesla's shares up 5.1% to $1,674.09 in after-hours trading..."
Tesla would have lost money, though, without $428 million it earned from selling electric vehicle credits to other automakers so they can meet government fuel economy and pollution regulations..." [my emphasis]
From linked site @ https://auto.hindustantimes.com/auto/news/elon-musk-beats-mukesh-ambani-to-become-fifth-richest-billionaire-for-a-while-41595474548011.html
His is the sort of thing that combines, publicity, politics, and economics. Scarey to watch, but a kind of tight-rope walking act. Hope he's got a net under him, when he falls; the results may be very ugly. Just my thoughts.
SD70Dudehow is this the fault of the railroads?
It's not. It is just a consequence of changing economic conditions. To elaborate more on my assertion, this is why you see fewer manifacturing plants. The have become larger and more centralized. It is also why facilities like the Ford Engine Plant in Windsor have ceased rail shipments entirely. As the roster of plants thins and becomes more centralized the longest any of their engines will travel is 50 miles. It is also the reason why you no longer see any auto plants on the west coast.
SD70Dudedoesn't Tesla's current assembly plant in California have rail service?
No. The siding was torn out. If Tesla ever ships by rail, they take the cars to Richmond to go out on BNSF.
I've read on You Tube I think that someone said, Elon Musk sounds like either a Star Wars character that everyone hated in a sequel that no one liked, or an aftershave lotion that smells really really bad. I laughed, anyway.
I have heard that if you own a Tesla, you can only get it serviced at a Tesla dealer as everything in it is proprietary. A friend just bought a Chevrolet Bolt and it's made of conventional GM components and can be serviced at any GM dealer or local garage that is familiar with them. With a Tesla, you would be violating their intellectual property if you did that. Not to change the subject from the thread, but to me Musk is a charlatan. His stock prices are high yet the company is not profitable and he makes a stupid amount of money. How does that happen? OK rant over.
ttrraaffiicc https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/22/21334860/tesla-cybertruck-factory-austin-texas-location-model-y Tesla is building a new plant in Austin. Unfortunately, it will not be served by any railroads.
Tesla is building a new plant in Austin. Unfortunately, it will not be served by any railroads.
Railroad does not appear in the article. The UP serves Bastrop, which is approximately 23 miles east of Bergstrom International Airport. It would not take a lot for the UP to build a line from its Bastrop location to the plant site.
(Sarcasm alert!)
When Musk starts building personal hovercraft in another decade, his electric autonomous trucks will be obsolete too as these new vehicles will simply fly themselves to dearlerships around the country.
One can only wonder what our friend traffic will gush about then.
JPS1 ttrraaffiicc https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/22/21334860/tesla-cybertruck-factory-austin-texas-location-model-y Tesla is building a new plant in Austin. Unfortunately, it will not be served by any railroads. Railroad does not appear in the article. The UP serves Bastrop, which is approximately 23 miles east of Bergstrom International Airport. It would not take a lot for the UP to build a line from its Bastrop location to the plant site.
As Tttrro..., I mean Ttrraafficc, has pointed out they truck production to a railhead elsewhere. There's a good chance they'll do that there if they want to ship by rail. I'll bet they do. They may not want to have an actual railroad connection because of Musk's 'promises' of the future that he will single handedly wipe out all freight railroads.
I've heard the autorack in North Platte that went up in flame was loaded with Teslas.
I'm done feeding the trolls.
Jeff
Juniata ManOne can only wonder what our friend traffic will gush about then.
Whatever his checks are from.
As soon as the big auto manufacturers get serious about EVs, Tesla will be gone in a heartbeat.
The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer, any other railroad, company, or person.
54light15 I've read on You Tube I think that someone said, Elon Musk sounds like either a Star Wars character that everyone hated in a sequel that no one liked, or an aftershave lotion that smells really really bad. I laughed, anyway. I have heard that if you own a Tesla, you can only get it serviced at a Tesla dealer as everything in it is proprietary. A friend just bought a Chevrolet Bolt and it's made of conventional GM components and can be serviced at any GM dealer or local garage that is familiar with them. With a Tesla, you would be violating their intellectual property if you did that. Not to change the subject from the thread, but to me Musk is a charlatan. His stock prices are high yet the company is not profitable and he makes a stupid amount of money. How does that happen? OK rant over.
I don't think it's as much as Musk being a charlatan, as it is him not being a realist. The reason he's not a realist, is he's surrounded by like minded people, who all live in a bubble and don't understand the plight of the average consumer when it comes to personal transportation. He and his like, made their money innovating new communications technology, that revolutioned the world over a short period of time. This technology required relatively little investment at the consumer end, to the point that it was affordable for the masses. If you read or watch any presentations by Musk or other lesser known innovators in this arena, they always respond to naysayers by drawing an analogy with the rapid advances in communications, and that the same thing is on the brink of occuring in personal transportation. Whether it be electric and self-driving cars, or increasing battery technology such as exist today in small drones, to the point everyone has a personal helicopter.
In the world these guys exist in, it's entirely feasible. The problem is that none of it's practical, because it requires too many changes with the existing transportation system, and the vehicles are too expensive to reach critical mass. If you can't reach critical mass in a short period of time, it requires a phase-in time encompassing decades, in which the new technology exist along with the old, and in this case the new and old aren't compatible. This isn't like going from steam to diesels, or props to jets, where large industries control the system. Everyone with a drivers license and owns a car is involved. We know the variety and age of cars on the road. This isn't going to change overnight. Hybrid vehicles have been around for awhile, and how much market share do they have? This isn't like buying a smartphone.
I still don't see that EV's are economical long term. I'm on my second gas-electric, and I find those make sense. I don't see myself going back to a gas vehicle. Mfrs are spending a pile on EVs. Seems very high risk to me.
ttrraaffiicc He is probably going to be right on this one. Numerous experts including Rod Case seem to agree that electric trucks will signifcantly reduce rail volumes as it will make trucks more economical in a lot of cases.
I don't see battery technology advancing to the point where long distance hauling by electric trucks makes sense. A related issue is the charging infrastructure and the means to provide the on-demand electric power.
Long distance electric haulage of freight is done better with rail.
All sarcasm aside, the promise of both individual and relatively small-scale autonomous aircraft is an interesting one. There is no fundamental reason why the technologies cannot be made reasonably safe and, to an extent, cost-effective; it is likewise almost childishly simple to implement a combination of technological and procedural safeguards to make full safety compliance effective.
Most of the control requirements for autonomous flight are much less rigorous and much more amenable to being 'algorithmized' than those for all-weather driving in a non-walled-garden environment. A combination of hybrid-electric small-place aircraft easily spans the gap right from bus/regional rail right up to long-distance providers (turbofan or similar aircraft or HSR depending on provision) and of course seamlessly works with a 'fair' version of rideshare jitney provision. Were the FAA to build out the second-tier network of regional airports with an analogue of the tower function Zunum rolled into their business model, it becomes theoretically practical to coordinate 'precision-scheduled' ground transportation with JIT-addressed efficient air. And in most cases, a combination of reasonable ICS/RCS with a slightly glorified BRS safety paravane takes care of disasters...
Personal rotorcraft (think big octos or larger numbers of individual motors) become much more of a 'thing' when you can autonomously dispatch them on a share model just at the time and to the place needed, and redispatch them afterward. I would not be surprised to find an aftermarket for components of these things, as well as older but still capable systems. I'm surprised there hasn't been a bazaar-style open-systems development of a low-supersonic business-size airframe: the tools and widespread knowledge to set up and accomplish that have existed for many years.
What you won't see is toys for the idle rich who often can't drive, let alone pilot. That's where most of the 'flying cars' have foundered. Modern autonomous design is already far beyond dependence on insanely complicated hardware or expensive operations.
LOL..... I don't think ttrraaffiicc is in the lane of reality at this point.. You use Tesla as the benchmark of auto transport by rail? When Tesla last year only made up 1.1% of domestic vehicle sales (Sales dropped 1.21% for Tesla ending FY 2019). GM, Ford, Honda, Nissan, and Toyota dominate domestic vehicle sales per annum, and all are significant shippers of finished autos by rail. 75% of finished autos are transported by rail domestically. I'm curious to how you think Tesla which has a micro fraction of per annum DVS will shoot past the former to dominate auto sales. All the while eliminating auto transport by rail? Economies of scale will still apply when AV's hit the market FYI...
ttrraaffiicc SD70Dude FYI - much of the auto parts traffic that used to move in 86' boxcars still moves by rail for much of its journey, it just goes in intermodal containers. That's not entirely true. If it were, 86' boxcars would still be in service. In most cases, the parts traffic was lost to trucks or just doesn't exist at all anymore. The reason being that auto plants have become more centralized with parts being sourced from nearby or manufactured directly at the plant. SD70Dude Musk seems to think that his self-driving electric semi will one day replace railroads, so I am not surprised that he is planning for a non-rail supply chain. We'll see how realistic those cost comparisons actually are in the He is probably going to be right on this one. Numerous experts including Rod Case seem to agree that electric trucks will signifcantly reduce rail volumes as it will make trucks more economical in a lot of cases. As Tesla expands its share of the US market, we will see fewer cars transported by rail. tbh, rail delivery of cars doesn't make much sense anyway, given their high value and requirement of flexibility for deliver and inventory.
What SD70 said is true. Stop trying to play semantics. Majority of autoparts move via 53' Contianers now, and 86' boxcars are still in service unless those ones I see at: Ford's Woodhaven stamping plant, Ford's Dearborn Truck plant, FCA's Sterling stamping plant, NS trains, CN trains, CSX trains, and CP trains are figments of my imagination... Conjecture doesn't win debates..
One of the larger auto loading ramps in the Detroit area is in New Boston MI. It is miles from the nearest auto plant, cars are trucked in from all over the area.
Telsa currently trucks cars from their CA plant to the BNSF in Richmond and the UP in Milpitas for transit. Direct rail access is no longer needed to ship by rail, as Tesla and the big 3 in the Detroit area are already doing. This is just another case of the OP trolling.
An "expensive model collector"
Erik_Mag ttrraaffiicc He is probably going to be right on this one. Numerous experts including Rod Case seem to agree that electric trucks will signifcantly reduce rail volumes as it will make trucks more economical in a lot of cases. I don't see battery technology advancing to the point where long distance hauling by electric trucks makes sense. A related issue is the charging infrastructure and the means to provide the on-demand electric power. Long distance electric haulage of freight is done better with rail.
I agree!
The only question is if the industry will wake up in time to get it done.
-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/)
n012944 One of the larger auto loading ramps in the Detroit area is in New Boston MI. It is miles from the nearest auto plant, cars are trucked in from all over the area. Telsa currently trucks cars from their CA plant to the BNSF in Richmond and the UP in Milpitas for transit. Direct rail access is no longer needed to ship by rail, as Tesla and the big 3 in the Detroit area are already doing. This is just another case of the OP trolling.
You're talking about TDSI a CSX subsidiary. Many moons ago I made drops and PU's at that facility. If I remember correctly they have room for 75+ racks. Not sure about today but once again many moons ago 4-6 Q200 series (Automotive) trains serviced the facility.
Inbound Shipments - JIT (Just In Time) manufacturing has reduced the number of parts deliveries by rail to auto plants. As stated previously, many parts are now produced nearby or at the plant. Some parts are still delivered by rail such as truck frames for the Texas Toyota Plant. Many auto companies have embraced the campus concept of manufacturing where both the suppliers and the main producer are located in one facility.
Outbound Shipments - Many auto plants built in the last 20 years have rail spurs for autoracks. Just look at the Toyota Texas Plant or the KIA plant built that is located in one of the other southern states.
As for Tesla Fremont, the plant is located off the UP mainline and was served by that railroad in previous incarnation as NUMMI. When Tesla took took over there were discussions between the two parties about shipping from the plant that went no where. The same thing happened a couple of years about shipping batteries from Nevada to Fremont.
The nasty things being said about Musk are much like the things that were said about virtually every visionary in the history of the world. Game-changers scare people.
Having said that, I hope he doesn't succeed in his promise to eliminate rail transportation--at least in my lifetime.
PsychotThe nasty things being said about Musk are much like the things that were said about virtually every visionary in the history of the world. Game-changers scare people.
I've watched a few videos/read a few discussions about some of the scummy stuff they do with "unauthorized repairs" and supercharger access and the like.
zugmann Psychot The nasty things being said about Musk are much like the things that were said about virtually every visionary in the history of the world. Game-changers scare people. I've watched a few videos/read a few discussions about some of the scummy stuff they do with "unauthorized repairs" and supercharger access and the like.
Psychot The nasty things being said about Musk are much like the things that were said about virtually every visionary in the history of the world. Game-changers scare people.
Yeah, they're just like Apple, Google and Facebook that way.
Musk certainly is a visionary and has really shaken up the auto industry and indeed the world in general (anyone here use PayPal?), but some of his actions make me view him as a reckless, self-serving egomaniac.
Kind of like a stoner version of Hunter Harrison......
BLS53In the world these guys exist in, it's entirely feasible. The problem is that none of it's practical, because it requires too many changes with the existing transportation system, and the vehicles are too expensive to reach critical mass. If you can't reach critical mass in a short period of time, it requires a phase-in time encompassing decades, in which the new technology exist along with the old, and in this case the new and old aren't compatible. This isn't like going from steam to diesels, or props to jets, where large industries control the system. Everyone with a drivers license and owns a car is involved. We know the variety and age of cars on the road. This isn't going to change overnight. Hybrid vehicles have been around for awhile, and how much market share do they have? This isn't like buying a smartphone.
Quoting you because I completely agree with this. Side note, Smartphones at $1k each were a major fail--consumers didn't buy them and manufacturers had to come up with creative ways to get them sold, like leasing and special financing. Today, the average household cannot afford an average new ICE car, much less an EV or HEV. I can see EV and HEV coexisting with traditional ICE vehicles for a very long time. Completely different situation than steam and diesel on an individual railroad as you said. A better comparison would be steam vs diesel on different railroads, like Santa fe vs. Norfolk & Western.
The world of logistics is moving towards a world where transparency, reliability and service are imperative for success.
After building out their own shipping network to reduce reliance on others, Amazon announced last week that they will offer up to full-truckload service for small and medium businesses in their trucking network.
J.B. Hunt announced they had put together a freight brokerage website ensuring customers were matched with the lowest cost truck, regardless of whether or not it is Hunt or another provider.
Shippers want a box to show up at the scheduled time, have it depart at the scheduled time, and want it to arrive at the scheduled time, all for the lowest cost. They don't want to have to deal with service failures or the consequences.
That's what these new platforms, a step towards Freight Mobility as a Service, are offering.
This, however, is the antithesis of current railroad behavior, which is all about adapting the customer to the needs of the railroad. This only works for captive customers and commodities, so the emphasis is on price discipline, as bragged about in earnings calls. At the moment, rates are up, service quality and traffic are down, and customers are unhappy.
In the long run, this is no strategy, particularly with coal declining, manufacturing likely to onshore or move to geographies favoring East Coast ports, and the general decline in industrial shipments in the US.
To grow in the future, consumer traffic will need to be a focus, and it largely moves in truck and container boxes. As long as it leaves on a truck and arrives on a truck, the customer doesn't care what it does in the mean time, provided it shows up on time.
Therein lies an opportunity. But it's going to take a complete alteration of railroad thinking to thrive in this space. It's going to require terminal and dray cost reductions to make modal switching cheap enough that the overal cost is lower than OTR trucking. It's going to require more, speedier terminals.
Overall, it's going to require a recongition that the landscape of freight is shifting, and money will have to be spent adapting to it.
But if the strategy is to downplay the threats rather than address them, the future loooks bleak. And the nice thing is, service improvements and reliability benefit everything that isn't moving in a box, too.
What's amusing is that it's like 'deja vu all over again' with the William H. Vanderbilts wanting to run as slow and self-convenient as the traffic will bear and everyone wanting assured service going to private express lines that can collectively obtain faster service and better QoS from those Vanderbilts.
Here we see rail-savvy shippers expanding the potential number of wells or platforms that would be used for a given move... right up into guaranteed-block traffic and size that interest lazy coupon-cutting hedge-fund-manipulated investors who manage the men that manage things. Will be interesting to see the degree to which this unlocks quicker blocking through intermediate points, better use of peak notch restriction, etc. If I were younger I would be sending resumes around angling for interest; there is a turning-point opportunity here that the wide swath of PSR-crazed railroads can't or won't exploit.
Overmod What's amusing is that it's like 'deja vu all over again' with the William H. Vanderbilts wanting to run as slow and self-convenient as the traffic will bear and everyone wanting assured service going to private express lines that can collectively obtain faster service and better QoS from those Vanderbilts. Here we see rail-savvy shippers expanding the potential number of wells or platforms that would be used for a given move... right up into guaranteed-block traffic and size that interest lazy coupon-cutting hedge-fund-manipulated investors who manage the men that manage things. Will be interesting to see the degree to which this unlocks quicker blocking through intermediate points, better use of peak notch restriction, etc. If I were younger I would be sending resumes around angling for interest; there is a turning-point opportunity here that the wide swath of PSR-crazed railroads can't or won't exploit.
Hey, you should get a regular column in Trains writing about such ideas. You could call yourself, I don't know, the Professional Iconoclast?
If GM "killed the electric car", what am I doing standing next to an EV-1, a half a block from the WSOR tracks?
Not sure what today's counts are - when I was working CSX was moving 90 racks a day to the Twin Oaks TDSI Distribution Center (Philadelphia), 90 racks a day to the Jessup TDSI Center and 60 a day to the Baltimore TDSI Center. Trucks would then move the 12 to 18 vehicle per rail car from the TDSI Centers to the automobile dealers in the areas served. I think there are something like 24 TDSI Centers on the CSX property.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
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