Unfortunately it's a problem with no easy solution.
The subways are there, they won't and can't be abandoned, they have to be used. When the virus is over (and eventually it will be) people will be back riding and living with any possible risk. Viruses of all kinds will always be with us.
Maybe... possibly ... if I had to ride the subway to work I would refuse to do so.
Ennui-- definition ' a feeling of listlessness and dissatisfaction arising from a lack of occupation or excitement' example ' he succumbed to ennui and despair'
So both the Flames of Hell and the Flames of Ennui
[quote user="Flintlock76"]
The subways are there, they won't and can't be abandoned, they have to be used. When the virus is over (and eventually it will be) people will be back riding and living with any possible risk. Viruses of all kinds will always be with us
I think a bigger problem, long term, is going to be sea-level rise during storm surge conditions. It caused millions in damage and weeks of outage after super-storm Sandy. There have been other flooding events with lesser damage but I think we've seen the handwriting on the wall. Thr els of yesteryear, noisy though were, have the advantage of relative immunity from flooding . And they're much less costly to build and maintain to say nothing of less time intensive. Operational cost and reliability will determine the outcome of this issuie--hopefully sooner rather than later.
..
If the future of human occupation of the Earth is Social Distancing - human occupation is in serious danger. 7+ Billion people and only so much inhabitable land area.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
Subways, Metros and crowded passenger trains in general survived the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, and they will survive this.
Life will return to normal eventually, though it may take years.
Greetings from Alberta
-an Articulate Malcontent
At the present, the problem has been exascerbated by a reduction in the number of trains running, packing the remaining riders in even tighter.
That was from a retired subway supervisor about a week ago. They may have gotten smart and returned to the normal schedule of trains since then.
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
Buses are involved, too.
Nails in public transit's coffin, unfortunately.
tree68That was from a retired subway supervisor about a week ago. They may have gotten smart and returned to the normal schedule of trains since then.
I thought it was a case of not having the employees avaliable? Many were out sick.
The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer, any other railroad, company, or person.
GrampBuses are involved, too.
Our local bus company has reduced service to where the last bus each day runs at 3:15 PM, and there is a maximum number of passengers of 9 on each bus.
With most routes only running once per hour, I can imagine how frustrating it would be to wait for a bus, only to be denied entry due to the maximum passenger restriction, and have to wait another hour HOPING it was not at capacity.
Being an essential employee depending on the bus would not be a fun thing.
zugmannI thought it was a case of not having the employees avaliable? Many were out sick.
I've seen indications that it was mandated by government officials. Probably a little of both.
I don't know... sea change coming. What does the world look like a year from now? Incredibly huge changes are in store.
Changes in power, custom and attitude.
I question if my College will ever reopen. Every time a student gets a cold they will disappear for 2 weeks easy. It will have to be on line at their own pace. That's a lot of layoffs , a lot of loss of privacy, a lot of monitoring.
Many things across the board will have to be done in very different ways.
I would not live anywhere near a city.
If you're at a restaurant, or theatre, or concert and someone coughs all hell breaks loose. People will be treated like lepers, social pariahas.
Thinking subways and mass transit will somehow have to have restricted access. Even then it dosen't work if you think about it.
There is no way in hell I would get on a subway .
Furthermore I believe those that wish Western Society harm or some kook ( as I've stated previously) is dusting off the old bunson burner right now seeing how easy this is to bring it all to an end. I don't think we are that far from chaos. Got to hold the line!
Security and Monitoring on a worldwide basis will really have to step up.
MiningmanMaybe... possibly ... if I had to ride the subway to work I would refuse to do so.
It's prohibitly expenseve to park in Manhattan. There would not be the street or parking capacity to circumvent the sybway system.
MidlandMike Miningman Maybe... possibly ... if I had to ride the subway to work I would refuse to do so. It's prohibitly expenseve to park in Manhattan. There would not be the street or parking capacity to circumvent the sybway system.
Miningman Maybe... possibly ... if I had to ride the subway to work I would refuse to do so.
I am not a New Yorker and don't have a New York state of mind.
That being said, us 'outsiders' don't comprehend that most New Yorkers live IN New York - their commute might be from 30th Street to 199th Street - all within the City of New York. The commuters form New Jersey, Staten Island, Long Island, Westchester County are rich enough to afford their form of commutation, be that ferry, train or automobile and the expenses that go with each mode.
Remember the damage from 9/11 affected more than just business properties - it affected schools and housing units. When you live in New York, YOU LIVE IN NEW YORK.
My personal experience with other 'big' cities are that vey few people live in the main commercial area of the city - that does not apply in New York.
Miningman - I suspect you are now working as close to NYC as you ever will!
Some suburban commuters are lucky to work in midtown within walking distance from GCT or NYP, but others may need to make a transit connection for beyond those stations.
Miningman ~From Professor Jeffrey E Harris of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, a new paper: Maps of subway station turnstile entries, superimposed upon zip code-level maps of reported coronavirus incidence, are strongly consistent with subway-facilitated disease propagation.
~From Professor Jeffrey E Harris of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, a new paper:
Maps of subway station turnstile entries, superimposed upon zip code-level maps of reported coronavirus incidence, are strongly consistent with subway-facilitated disease propagation.
- PDN.
More disinfecting, UV treatment of surfaces, no cash transactions.
azrail More disinfecting, UV treatment of surfaces, no cash transactions.
That could be part of it.
We really do not know at this point why the NYC subway system contributed to the very awful situation there whereas other cities with comparable density and transit usage are much less affected.
Availability and social custom of wearing face masks in flu season? More resources put into keeping the subways and trains clean? Shutting the system down in the overnight? More rigorous exclusion of riders not conforming to social norms for crowd etiquette? Other factors having nothing to do with what I just mentioned?
If GM "killed the electric car", what am I doing standing next to an EV-1, a half a block from the WSOR tracks?
Paul MilenkovicWe really do not know at this point why the NYC subway system contributed to the very awful situation there whereas other cities with comparable density and transit usage are much less affected.
The fact that the number of trains running was cut is undoubtedly a factor.
Research is showing that "casual contact" isn't as responsible for transmission as may have been suggested, however I would opine that being packed into a subway car like a sardine isn't "casual contact."
While we don't know how much the NYC subways contirbuted to the case rate in the area, I think it is safe to assume that the contribution was signficant.
I've seen multiple reports that the subway system is vital to "essential workers", so it would make sense to limit ridership to essential workers in future pandemics along with sufficient service to prevent crowding. Face masks and other sanitary measures would be a help.
Cash transactions have been going away for a while. Toronto streetcars and buses do not accept cash and the subway stations are slowly becoming un-staffed. People use the Presto card which I am told can be used in Ottawa and Montreal. London has been cash-free for a few years but there are some exceptions there. Stations in London no longer have ticket/cash counters but they do have attendants standing near the gates to assist riders.
Rio Grande Valley, CFI,CFII
While not directly about the subways, one reason NYC may have had a more severe problem than other crowded cities could be the NYC mayor's response.
By the middle of March, most cities had already instituted isolation policies.
NYC's mayor, on the other hand, on March 11, was still encouraging New Yorkers to go out and enjoy the restaurants and bars.
https://ny.eater.com/2020/3/11/21175497/coronavirus-nyc-restaurants-safe-dine-out
York1 John
I asked my doctor if I gave up delicious food and all alcohol, would I live longer? He said, "No, but it will seem longer."
York1By the middle of March, most cities had already instituted isolation policies.
Which cities?
zugmannWhich cities?
Sorry. I'm speaking from memory, and do not have the evidence.
zugmann York1 By the middle of March, most cities had already instituted isolation policies. Which cities?
York1 By the middle of March, most cities had already instituted isolation policies.
Several counties in the SF Bay Area were in lock down (shelter in place) by St Patrick's day and a CA statewide ban on large gatherings was in place a week before. NY state's stay at home order started 69 hours after CA's statewide order even though the CA infection rate per capita was maybe 10% of the NYS rate.
One thing where I have to give Cuomo credit for was giving people a couple of days to get prepared for the lockdown. Newsom only allowed 5 hours which leads me to believe that he is confusing making "bold" decisions is the same thing as leadership (unfortunately he is not the only political figure with that delusion). True leadership involves effective planning, as opposed to reacting.
I hear that subways make fine wine cellars, bomb shelters and mushroom farms. In Cincinnati, the lazy city civil engineers laid twin 72" raw water lines in one of the twin bores that has yet to see a train. (The above ground streetcars are well on their way to oblivion - nobody to blame but the clueless transportation planners. Often referred to as the streetcar to nowhere. KC was much closer to getting it right.)
mudchickenKC was much closer to getting it right.
When they killed the last one in 1955, or when they started putting them back?
ChuckCobleigh mudchicken KC was much closer to getting it right. When they killed the last one in 1955, or when they started putting them back?
mudchicken KC was much closer to getting it right.
SD70Dude Subways, Metros and crowded passenger trains in general survived the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, and they will survive this. Life will return to normal eventually, though it may take years.
If there's anything you can learn from past human behaviour it won't be years on the scale you might be thinking. Depending on when the waves crest and news shifts to something else entirely(this is an important point, out of site out of mind) people will go back to normal sooner rather than later.
Example being say the virus is out of the news buy the end of summer and all we're inundated with from that point on is election news, and there's no mention of the virus at all. People will forget about it much quicker than something like 9/11 since it's ephemeral and not material, there's no physical reminder of the virus ever having been present aside from people you may know having died from it, where as after 9/11 we had the destroyed WTC to remind us every day for several years of what happened.
Erik_Magzugmann York1 By the middle of March, most cities had already instituted isolation policies. Which cities? Several counties in the SF Bay Area were in lock down (shelter in place) by St Patrick's day and a CA statewide ban on large gatherings was in place a week before. NY state's stay at home order started 69 hours after CA's statewide order even though the CA infection rate per capita was maybe 10% of the NYS rate. One thing where I have to give Cuomo credit for was giving people a couple of days to get prepared for the lockdown. Newsom only allowed 5 hours which leads me to believe that he is confusing making "bold" decisions is the same thing as leadership (unfortunately he is not the only political figure with that delusion). True leadership involves effective planning, as opposed to reacting.
Are you implying 5 hours wasn't sufficient time for people to do something they new was coming at least a day or two before? Yes, speculation in the news media isn't concrete proof something is going to happen, but what exactly did people have to plan for that 5 hours notice wasn't enough?
New Orleans used to be criss-crossed with streetcars.
In the 1960s, most were removed, with just the St. Charles line operating.
In the 1980s, a riverfront line was added for tourists.
However, in the past 15 years, quite a few miles of streetcars have been rebuilt. They are slow, and often carry a large number of tourists, but they also carry a good share of commuters.
Some people were hoping the Desire Streetcar line would also be rebuilt, but that is unlikely. Its route down Bourbon and Royal streets is just too crowded with pedestrians to get a streetcar through. Those streets are often closed to vehicles.
Edit: Sorry for posting this here. I was glancing through the posts and wanted to post this on the transit thread. I don't know if it can be moved or not.
GERALD L MCFARLANE JR Are you implying 5 hours wasn't sufficient time for people to do something they new was coming at least a day or two before? Yes, speculation in the news media isn't concrete proof something is going to happen, but what exactly did people have to plan for that 5 hours notice wasn't enough?
First off is winding things up at work. Second is that most of California was in good shape at the time, with the worst parts being much better than either NYC or NOLA and social distancing orders were already in place. Third part is that CA should have required quarantine for anyone entering the state from NYC or NOLA as Texas did soon after.
The rumors about shutdown was the CCP disinformation being spread on the invocation of the Stafford act the week before.
Some aspects of the shutdown don't make a lot of sense, specifically the ones that discourage outdoor activities, especially on a warm sunny day (the virus does not do well with UV exposure).
Erik_MagSome aspects of the shutdown don't make a lot of sense, specifically the ones that discourage outdoor activities, especially on a warm sunny day (the virus does not do well with UV exposure).
Indeed. You see a lot of "please stay in your house!" floating around, when it should just be "stay home." And even that isn't accurate. Get outside for a walk or work in your yard. Social distancing is still a thing.
On the other hand, I'm seeing that Sweden didn't embrace any of that. As a result, the country is developing "herd immunity," which will allow them to resume a reasonably normal life well before anyone else.
Studies in California are indicating that from 50 to 85 times as many people have experienced COVID19 as has been thought, based on the existance of antibodies in their systems. And several instances where comprehensive testing was done have shown that upwards of 60% of those testing positive for the virus exhibit no symptoms...
tree68Studies in California are indicating that from 50 to 85 times as many people have experienced COVID19 as has been thought, based on the existance of antibodies in their systems. And several instances where comprehensive testing was done have shown that upwards of 60% of those testing positive for the virus exhibit no symptoms...
Lots of practicing homosexuals never got AIDS, either.
And lots of kids playing with matches are happily alive, too.
It wouldn't matter if the anticipated 98% of the population DID acquire their immunity after their (CDC-described, if anyone cares where I got the analogy) "bad, bad cold". It's the 2%, which works out to a much higher absolute number of people, and a much higher 'number' of human cares and interactions, that we need to have concern for. (And with the current combination of slipshod non-caring coupled with feel-good overexaggeration, that number probably is closer to the 4% than 2% by the time it's 'over' (and we all have symptom immunity one way or t'other).
I would note that SIP/SD is effective precisely because it pushes the 'inevitable immunity time' -- of which that relatively silly 'herd immunity' idea is a part -- 'out' rather than 'down' -- it is only feebly eating away at the numbers that fuel the differential equations for outbreak, and we shouldn't be surprised to see the kinetics accelerate nearly at the rate they did if those artificial 'protections' are relaxed.
What is really necessary is to have some combination of good social practice/PPE coupled with segregation for those demonstrably at risk. Consider this:
Serological testing for the 'right' ratios of Igs over time (blood-glucose-meter-like 'stick' when refined)
Cheap and unintrusive viral-RNA or particle testing (nasopharyngeal)
Active dereferenced tracking of outbreaks via data fusion (determines where ongoing resources to help the sick get allocated, and palliative medications get sent)
PROPER social parameters (e.g. no direct talking or heavy breathing-through-the-mouth around others; wearing a proper mask that absorbs moisture and blows down exhalation to effective ab/adsorption or 'plating out' away from public contact surfaces) combined with segregation of 'those at risk' until they can be tested for actual ARDS overreaction propensity;
Continued 'adaptive privilege' for those over 50, perhaps progressive as you get higher up. This includes specific new precautions and regulations for nursing homes in particular, but also 'social distancing' by group and amenity when large-group events come back. Apply the precautions to the people who need them; treat the outliers who 'unexpectedly' have a worse time, or complications, effectively; THEN let the rest get back to work with appropriate oversight.
I do think keeping travel restrictions in and out of regions where outbreaks are occurring or noted makes sense. The problem is how to do it without creating the equivalent of California Okie patrols. People like Newsom are, to date, nearly utterly clueless about how one might actually do this sort of thing effectively.
Oh yes: subways. Most of the issue is people packed in cheek-by-jowl exhaling particles and spreading fomites from hands that have been, for example, holding stuff on which victims have exhaled, or poking their phones. You fix this several ways.
(As a default -- recommend that people wear specific outer clothing that either does not support viral activation or that has been treated with 'virucidal' or virustatic material, and sanitize areas of contact with hard surfaces when practical)
Everyone on a subway needs to be properly masked -- against exhalation, not inhalation. They should have some way to sanitize hands before boarding, and then again when leaving the station ... and there shouldn't be long lines to a couple of pathetic pump dispensers that run out before you get there. Wipe dispensers with portion control, perhaps, an analogue of what's in supermarkets for cart handles ... no one can take more than 'their share'; no one can stockpile; no one can take a bunch for scalping later. This to be used WHETHER OR NOT HANDS ARE GLOVED.
Extend the 'one finger' provision on smartphone use to all travel, not just driving automobiles. And require handsfree microphones to work either 'inside' or with masks and bandannas.
NOW you're at a point where periodic 'maintenance' with portable UV lights brought aboard the cars periodically, and anti-film wipedown or spray of stainless surfaces, begins to be workable.
Won't prevent all cases, of course, and many 'at risk' will still not be wholly safe riding the subways. Personally I'd extend them the privilege of paratransit, perhaps via subsidy of car services. Together with enhanced access to concierge or delivery service provided by 'those with better immunity' or those who have demonstrably recovered to asymptomaticity/low communicable shed.
Before the current Covid-19 pandemic - Subways and other forns of mass transportation have operated without major health concerns for well over 100 years. Covid-19 will not last forever. Mass transportation will continue to operate over the next 100 years or more.
I disagree. This will change things dramatically. The generations younger than us won't tolerate it. Homeless live on the darn trains.
I see this as a huge problem. OH&S issue, right to refuse, all that.
Sea change ... different locations away from cities, more work at home in a more structured way with infrastructure and support from the employer.
BaltACD Before the current Covid-19 pandemic - Subways and other forns of mass transportation have operated without major health concerns for well over 100 years. Covid-19 will not last forever. Mass transportation will continue to operate over the next 100 years or more.
101 years, NOT well over 100 years. During the 1918 flu outbreak, the New York public health department got businesses to stagger their working hours to reduce crowding on subways and other forms of transit. Of course this was when the NY public health department was top of the line - the role of DNA was discovered by a department employee who deserved a Nobel Prize for his work. The current department was too busy being woke to see what worked in the past.
Then again, any entity that hosts large crowds (sports, amusement parks, etc) will be having some rough times in the next year or so.
Furure of railroad passenger and subway
I tried to sell my two cents worth, but no one would give me a plug nickel for it.
I don't have a leg to stand on.
Erik_Mag BaltACD Before the current Covid-19 pandemic - Subways and other forns of mass transportation have operated without major health concerns for well over 100 years. Covid-19 will not last forever. Mass transportation will continue to operate over the next 100 years or more. 101 years, NOT well over 100 years. During the 1918 flu outbreak, the New York public health department got businesses to stagger their working hours to reduce crowding on subways and other forms of transit. Of course this was when the NY public health department was top of the line - the role of DNA was discovered by a department employee who deserved a Nobel Prize for his work. The current department was too busy being woke to see what worked in the past. Then again, any entity that hosts large crowds (sports, amusement parks, etc) will be having some rough times in the next year or so.
New York subways began operation in 1904 - well before the Spanish Flu of 1918 and for the past 101 years after the Spanish Flu. After this is over, and it will end, the large crowds to the various aspects of human habitation of the 3rd rock from the Sun will return.
Several years ago someone, I don't remember who, linked a magazine article to the Forum written by some young millenial who for some reason couldn't get an Uber ride and had to ride the subway with "Those people!"
She wasn't worried about catching anything, it was just being on the subway with "Them." She didn't specify who "They" were, probably anyone who wasn't like her crowd.
Oh dearie me. I wonder if she still lives in the City and what she's doing with the coronavirus goin' around. Probably having another meltdown.
tree68Studies in California are indicating that from 50 to 85 times as many people have experienced COVID19 as has been thought, based on the existance of antibodies in their systems.
Those 2 studies still only showed that about 4% to 5% of the general population had the antibodies.
In a New York Covid antibody study reported today: NY City 21%, suburbs 12%-17%, upstate 4%.
Sweden is relying on voluntary social distancing, which 9 out of 10 people are observing. They also banned gatherings of more than 50 people. They also have the highest Covid death rate per capita in Scandinavia.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52395866
NYC homeless have camped out on the subways en masse. Criminals let out from Rikers are living on the subway. Crime is up even though ridership is way down.
The subways are serving as the overflow capacity of the shelter system.
The subways are the essence of everything that is NYC and it is what facilitates business, commerce and social life.
Who in their right mind would take the subway. Even if you clean out the homeless and the criminals people will always remember Covid and anyone that so much as blinks wrong will cause suspicion fear and even panic.
Whole new ball game in the future. They are done.
MidlandMikeThose 2 studies still only showed that about 4% to 5% of the general population had the antibodies.
That's still significantly higher than the number of people who have tested positive.
tree68That's still significantly higher than the number of people who have tested positive.
And, more significantly, ridiculously short of the number assuring a reasonable change in subsequent-outbreak kinetics when SIP/SD restrictions are relaxed ...
In testing people to find what percentage of the general population has antibodies, how are those people selected for testing?
Miningman NYC homeless have camped out on the subways en masse. Criminals let out from Rikers are living on the subway. Crime is up even though ridership is way down. The subways are serving as the overflow capacity of the shelter system. The subways are the essence of everything that is NYC and it is what facilitates business, commerce and social life. Who in their right mind would take the subway. Even if you clean out the homeless and the criminals people will always remember Covid and anyone that so much as blinks wrong will cause suspicion fear and even panic. Whole new ball game in the future. They are done.
Apparently laws are not being enforced:
https://nypost.com/2020/04/28/video-shows-how-extensive-nyc-subway-homeless-problem-is/
Euclid In testing people to find what percentage of the general population has antibodies, how are those people selected for testing?
The Stamford study was reportedly randomized. Not sure on the LA study, nor the criteria for selecting the areas that were tested in NY.
tree68 Euclid In testing people to find what percentage of the general population has antibodies, how are those people selected for testing? The Stamford study was reportedly randomized. Not sure on the LA study, nor the criteria for selecting the areas that were tested in NY.
I have not heard of people being subject to a random and arbitrary process requiring them to be tested. I would think that if that were the case, some would refuse, and so we would be hearing a little about the process.
EuclidI have not heard of people being subject to a random and arbitrary process requiring them to be tested. I would think that if that were the case, some would refuse, and so we would be hearing a little about the process.
I doubt anyone was forced to participate. More like a "man on the street interview" I would imagine. And I have no doubt that some folks did refuse to participate.
Last I heard, the study had not been peer reviewed, and thus not published as such. The researchers apparently felt that their findings were significant to let the cat out of the bag.
They did characterize their findings as showing that 50 to 85 times as many as previously thought had been infected and thus developed the antibodies.
This is as opposed to the USS Roosevelt and Boston homeless shelter findings, where 100% of the subjects concerned were tested. Those weren't studies, as such, but both found that upwards of 50-60% of those testing positive were asymptomatic.
Given the limited testing that has occurred even now (many places still won't test unless you are symptomatic), that finding again indicates that many more people have been exposed to the virus that was previously thought.
Then you add the significant number of people who experienced COVID-type symptoms before testing was occurring and you've got numbers that begin to eclipse the confirmed cases.
All this dancing and speculation don't convince me one bit that the essential coefficients in the outbreak-propagation models have changed much, or should be changed much.
In any case, relating back to the topic of this thread, one way or another either more than 90% of Americans will have acquired effective 'humoral immunity' by around the end of the year, or the economy will have so effectively crashed that no one can really predict what characteristics it will have (e.g., experience a singularity). Either way you can expect that in some reasonably determinate time nearly everyone who has to ride a subway will no longer be symptomatic -- and as a couple of posters have indicated, within a few years considerations of COVID-19 will seem as quaint as 'no spitting' signs in the subway were in the early Sixties.
Oh yeah? " nothing to see here folks, get in and enjoy the ride".
As previously noted the subway car is the complete opposite of social distancing.
So Overmod is claiming social distancing will be waved in the future by a compliant public and also out of necessity . Likely so in some cases, people that know each other at least somewhat, like in a pie sale at the local Imperial Order Daughters of the Empire or whatever the equivalent is Stateside.
Millenials, Gen X and many above them and their parents are notorious snowflakes. They are not hardened trained Marines that will abide regardless. This outbreak will not be forgotten anytime soon aided by a trigger happy and over excited media and social network. It will not fade.
This wariness will apply even more so in New York City and the subway system. Someone pointed out they make good mushroom farms. Also that's a lot of real estate, a permanent place for things you want out of sight. Like the homeless , criminals, vehicles , and a whole new opportunity for commerce. ( Aside... the beginnings of the Morlocks?...never mind.)
Little electric 2 passenger bubble Uber cars whisking people's to and from work and events, computer controlled, hundreds of thousands of them flowing like electrons. More work from home , with company paid for work area, studio, visual capability, software support. This for everything from school to Goldman Sachs and all in between.
It will come and soon because it will be necessary to do so.
At some point in time either the herd will become immune or we will be part of a mass extinction of homo sapeins.
Miningman Oh yeah? " nothing to see here folks, get in and enjoy the ride". As previously noted the subway car is the complete opposite of social distancing. So Overmod is claiming social distancing will be waved in the future by a compliant public and also out of necessity . Likely so in some cases, people that know each other at least somewhat, like in a pie sale at the local Imperial Order Daughters of the Empire or whatever the equivalent is Stateside. Millenials, Gen X and many above them and their parents are notorious snowflakes. They are not hardened trained Marines that will abide regardless. This outbreak will not be forgotten anytime soon aided by a trigger happy and over excited media and social network. It will not fade. This wariness will apply even more so in New York City and the subway system. Someone pointed out they make good mushroom farms. Also that's a lot of real estate, a permanent place for things you want out of sight. Like the homeless , criminals, vehicles , and a whole new opportunity for commerce. ( Aside... the beginnings of the Morlocks?...never mind.) Little electric 2 passenger bubble Uber cars whisking people's to and from work and events, computer controlled, hundreds of thousands of them flowing like electrons. More work from home , with company paid for work area, studio, visual capability, software support. This for everything from school to Goldman Sachs and all in between. It will come and soon because it will be necessary to do so.
As reported in today's NewsWire, the subway system will be shut down every late night for all cars to be cleaned. Homeless will have to find someplace else.
It has already been shown that millenials favor public transit over owning cars. NY can't accomodate more cars, or auto-bubbles. While some office workers may work occasionally from home, New York and other financial nodes exist to bring decission makers together, and that has not changed thru prior pandemics.
Thanks Midland Mike.. so there's the other side of it. Saw the subways are shut down now at night and the homeless are somehow removed...problem is they come right back when the trains run again. Definitely a serious ongoing problem.
We shall see how the response to riding the subways will be over the next few years. I just cannot see it going back to the way it was and is now.
I'll bet NYC's sorry they got rid of the elevateds now!
Operating in the open air with plenty of sunlight, probably easier to clean and disinfect too.
They didn't listen to Dave Klepper, and now they're regretting it!
"...hardened trained Marines." Oh shucks, thanks Miningman! Now I'm blushing!
You know, there is a saying:
"Hard times make hard men. Hard men make good times. Good times make soft men. Soft men make hard times." Interesting variation on "The Circle of Life," don't you think?
Flintlock says -- " "Hard times make hard men. Hard men make good times. Good times make soft men. Soft men make hard times." Interesting variation on "The Circle of Life," don't you think?
Good one! Going to put that in my Intro
Mining course.
MiningmanSo Overmod is claiming social distancing will be waived in the future by a compliant public and also out of necessity .
Huh? I'm going to go all Euclid on this one.
What I said, or at least closer to what I meant to say and thought I was saying, was that social distancing (and shelter-in-place mandates) will be largely waived when the public has substantially acquired freedom from symptoms of infection after having gotten the disease ... and those who have died during that process are dead. I have seen little that indicates relaxing SIP/SD will not put us substantially right back where potential spread threatened until a very great more people show effective antibody titers than anything but speculation indicates. We might offset the rough end-of-the-year estimates by the number of months the various economy-killing mandates have kept people away from infection.
But any effective vaccine for the general population is at least 2 years off, while the kinetics for full acquired immunity through disease remain in the range of 'about a year'. That is tantamount to an iron law of sorts. It is half the issue.
The other half is that like it or not we won't be able to keep up anything like current SIP arrangements, or even a meaningful degree of at-work enforced 6' distancing, and get back to a recognizable economy. Even spending trillions we don't have on transient support programs that build little effective wealth and even less security. I've been carefully looking for concerted plans that could work. So far I haven't seen any other than those with one sort of abominable characteristic or another. I wouldn't trust either the current adminstration or the current House with designing a coherent and workable fair economy if their lives and careers depended upon it -- so we have little option but to get toward 'normalcy' with reasonable despatch.
And doing so will likely start accelerating the iron law toward 'effective acquired humoral immunity for survivors' within that year or so ... and I don't expect survivors to Never Forget The Boomers Who Died once they've been in the ground or up the stack a few years.
They are hoping for a vaccine by January in Operation Warp Speed.
Google it for details.
If you expect people to just obligingly board on packed subways just because they have been told they are all clear I say you're badly mistaken. People still cough, sneeze, lots of bizzare looking folks, lots and lots of suspicion. I would not ride, and object on OH&S issues. It's ridiculous to think the folks will just happily resume as if all those people around them are one and the same .
I wouldn't let my daughters go either. Especially in NYC. Or Toronto.
Also don't think that the haters, kooks, extremists and power hungry madmen haven't raised an eyebrow and are working deligently on the next 'outbreak' . Seems everyone has noticed how easy it is to bring down an economy. Even a false flag and a good scare might do. Of course it would.
Now I could be well wrong but subway riders worldwide are going to be less and less. Regardless of explanations, even science, solid assurances the human condition will reject subways in large part.
Nothing will be the same. Something else will have to be.
Miningman, did you say, "two passenger bubbles?" Makes me think of Isetta cars and remember the Messerschmitt Tiger? Those along with Heinkels, Trojans and Dorniers were all called bubble cars back in the 50s. Or Kabinenroller, aka cabin scooters. It would be neat to see them back again but for the two-stroke stink they put out.
Yeah 2 passenger bubbles. No driver. All digital all computer controlled. All electric, no stink. Not individually owned, you request one and it arrives. Thoroughly sanitized automatically each trip in seconds. Hundreds of thousands of them, all zipping along picking up and dropping off people on demand. No parked cars sitting there all day doing nothing. Store them and maintain them underground in what were the subways. No mass transit ever again.
Not science fiction, very doable and complete transformation in a generation. I think the only way to save cities.
The car enthusiasts, wahoos, good ol boys, NASCAR can still be but way outside of the cities.
Oxford's so optimistic that their vaccine is going to be effective and safe in humans, that it's going to be entering mass production soon.
I'm very hopeful we'll have an effective weapon against this in short order. Not soon enough when lives are being lost and the economy is imploding, but it appears optimistic we'll have a solution in record time and at some point about a year from now, be able to start to relax.
People aren't going to live in a bubble forever, afraid of human contact. May as well launch all those missiles in our boomers right now if widespread adversion of other humans is going to be the result of this.
I think common sense will prevail and life will return to normalcy. We'll see changes for sure, but fundamentally we'll see a return to life much like what we had a short time ago.
MiningmanNot science fiction, very doable and complete transformation in a generation.
It was very doable with complete transformation in a generation back in the 1970s, too, when PRT was the 'darling' of the transportation program. It has gotten orders of magnitude cheaper and easier, too, with advances in electrical storage and power drives and in autonomous replacing the need for fixed or 'equipped' guideways.
But it's still not practical and likely never will be. It's a lovely idea new, just like taxicabs are lovely new. It's when they've been running in the snow and rain for a few years, and the seals start to let go and the air conditioning filters go bad, and the suspension doesn't get regularly checked, and the previous client's vomit under the seat hasn't quite dried, that some of the problems with an unattended taxi model start to become more and more obvious.
You could fix this, of course, in Singapore. Keep the cameras running and cane anybody who trashes the inside. New York already has arcane and Mickey Mouse traffic and parking regulations that under Magic Mike were enforced quickly to the letter -- it wouldn't help this much. I won't go into the technical description of guiding and congestion for the required number of little bubbles on the surface (trust me, you can NOT afford the '70s type of multiple-level guideways to make the trick work, even if there weren't the 'issues' with New York construction) but it ain't ever goin' to replace the subways for mass transit. Likely, net of all system cost and insurance and chronic cost of replacing or restoring vandalized plant, you'll be running under some sort of New York restaurant model, where bubble companies (what an apt double entendre!) set up, run expensively for about six months, mysteriously fold up and screw their creditors and disappear, and some other fellow repeats the exercise with the stock and infrastructure. Your money would be safer investing in the Interstate Traveller Company.
OvermodI won't go into the technical description of guiding and congestion for the required number of little bubbles on the surface... but it ain't ever goin' to replace the subways for mass transit.
Well then would it be at least possible to evict the homeless who use the subways for shelter?
54light15 Miningman, did you say, "two passenger bubbles?" Makes me think of Isetta cars and remember the Messerschmitt Tiger? Those along with Heinkels, Trojans and Dorniers were all called bubble cars back in the 50s. Or Kabinenroller, aka cabin scooters. It would be neat to see them back again but for the two-stroke stink they put out.
Messerschmitts? Heinkels? Dorniers?
Why do those names make me nervous?
How do we know those bubble cars wouldn't take off for London when the starter button was pushed?
Flintlock76 54light15 Miningman, did you say, "two passenger bubbles?" Makes me think of Isetta cars and remember the Messerschmitt Tiger? Those along with Heinkels, Trojans and Dorniers were all called bubble cars back in the 50s. Or Kabinenroller, aka cabin scooters. It would be neat to see them back again but for the two-stroke stink they put out. Messerschmitts? Heinkels? Dorniers? Why do those names make me nervous? How do we know those bubble cars wouldn't take off for London when the starter button was pushed?
Dornier
Heinkel
Messerschmitt
Isetta by BMW
Well you guys figure it out
New York New York
EuclidWell then would it be at least possible to evict the homeless who use the subways for shelter?
Few things would be easier, given the structure of the New York subway's current fare system. Enact the appropriate statutes about no extended 'unnecessary' presence in the subways, then give enforcement personnel the authority they have in San Jose or Dallas to summarily demand 'proof' of anyone that they are date-and-place entitled to be where they are. Haul 'em off to court, summarily fine 'em, and ...
well, now comes Euclid time, what will you do with the homeless next. Aren't enough dollars in your budget for shelters, you'll have trouble bussing them on the sly to streetcorners in Hoboken or Newark in 'payback' for all the years those cities used that tactic on New York. Put ankle bracelets on them or microchip them so they can't slip back onto 'subway' property? Get them conveniently 'committed' on some PC mental-health diagnosis so you have grounds to detain them somewhere indefinitely, a reversal in spirit of the desperate cost-cutting mental-health releases that sparked the first obvious wave of 'homeless' (as opposed to bums or street people) in New York a half-century or so ago?
And remember that you as a policymaker in New York City have to answer to an enormous number of 'woke' voters who support privileges for the homeless ... as long as the homeless stay out of their neighborhoods.
From the pictures, they all look like cars for children to drive. However, such cars were usually made for only one child.
Johnny
Deggesty- they were all cars built to re-start the German ecomony and consider the material shortages that they had to contend with. The ones with 3 wheels could be registered and insured cheaply as a motor scooter. As the economy improved and people could afford better, these cars became unwanted. I have read a book in German reviewing all of these cars and many others that were built in France that were contemporary. The conclusion of the book was to buy a Volkswagen, its the only real car of this bunch.
Today the bubble cars are worth a lot of money, especially the Messerschmitt Tiger which did very well in racing.
Well they certainly are an interesting bunch of cars. The Messerschmitt Tiger look not too bad, but the red paint gotta go, makes it look like a toy. Some would fit in today just fine but with upgrades and all electric .
Back in the 1960's, a local fellow (in MI) had one of the ones that has the door open to the front.
He was a volunteer firefighter, and had a siren light mounted on the roof. Strange combination, to say the least...
There's one in a museum in Nuremberg where the doors open from the bottom with a counter-balancing spring along the top. Built by Dornier I recall. It didn't go into production. I used to know a woman who grew up in London in the swinging sixties, Carnaby street and all that. A friend of hers had an Isetta and the idea was, you parked straight in to the "kerb" and got out directly onto the "pavement."
Keep in mind that in the mid-Seventies none of the PRT systems involved two-seat vehicles -- not flexible enough as the 'default' circulating car, not cost-effective enough if routing with effective-enough call 'fulfillment latency' wasn't long enough to route a two-seat car to a two-seat call. There is little additional structure involved in making a side-by-side vehicle into a four-seater; the ones I remember used a single door and were set up essentially like a limousine, or that face-to-face seating on some commuter coaches minus the fixed table. With the ability to run CBTC-style following distance, or with explicit platooning like so many of the 'guideway' proposals, these have relatively good spatial density when running 'trunked'. The problem was that vehicles like this have essentially zero usefulness in transportation when not running as intended, under computer control, in a carefully built and maintained environment -- and much of this still remains for pure autonomous vehicles that are to be sold in competition with 'more able alternatives.
It is possible that large numbers of millennials will be willing either to buy teensy but expen$ive bubble cars and freely provide them to Uber-like services 'when not actively needed', or buy a share, as in general-aviation private jet leasing, to get a certain number of baseline hours of 'service' from a vehicle at lower aggregate cost. I think it's much more likely that these will have more conventional'luxury' seats than a commodity transit vehicle would have, and they will have better lines and retain the ability to be driven 'conventionally' in some ways. I also think for pure liability reasons alone the idea of super-light and quick vehicles needing very low power is an extremely bad one -- not just for reasons of weather difficulty or 'coexisting with buses or other larger transport vehicles'.
Meanwhile, from the other direction, regional 'feeder' air using 10 to 12-person 'vehicles' is actually easier to arrange autonomously, including the BRS equivalent when anything 'goes wrong' enroute, and gives you multiple levels of potential 'space filling' with almost inconsequential per-passenger maintenance and tracking cost. This severely pinches your ability to find the billyuns and billyuns of dollars needed for nasty little concrete linguini everywhere, or keeping routes on streets open as much as possible net of all the little ad hoc dwells of people boarding and alighting.
tree68Back in the 1960's, a local fellow (in MI) had one of the ones that has the door open to the front. He was a volunteer firefighter, and had a siren light mounted on the roof. Strange combination, to say the least...
Isetta racing
Overmod Euclid Well then would it be at least possible to evict the homeless who use the subways for shelter? Few things would be easier, given the structure of the New York subway's current fare system. Enact the appropriate statutes about no extended 'unnecessary' presence in the subways, then give enforcement personnel the authority they have in San Jose or Dallas to summarily demand 'proof' of anyone that they are date-and-place entitled to be where they are. Haul 'em off to court, summarily fine 'em, and ... well, now comes Euclid time, what will you do with the homeless next. Aren't enough dollars in your budget for shelters, you'll have trouble bussing them on the sly to streetcorners in Hoboken or Newark in 'payback' for all the years those cities used that tactic on New York. Put ankle bracelets on them or microchip them so they can't slip back onto 'subway' property? Get them conveniently 'committed' on some PC mental-health diagnosis so you have grounds to detain them somewhere indefinitely, a reversal in spirit of the desperate cost-cutting mental-health releases that sparked the first obvious wave of 'homeless' (as opposed to bums or street people) in New York a half-century or so ago? And remember that you as a policymaker in New York City have to answer to an enormous number of 'woke' voters who support privileges for the homeless ... as long as the homeless stay out of their neighborhoods.
Euclid Well then would it be at least possible to evict the homeless who use the subways for shelter?
EuclidBut if the trains are to survive, I think the homeless camping has got to go.
The problem is not in the power to compel that, or in the power to keep it enforced. It's in the poitical will to actually do it and then keep it done (and while the present crisis is "on" is a good time to get something actually implemented ... think 55mph national speed limit ... keeping it active months from now when the death emergency is deemed over but the risks of infection are still substantial is likely to be a hassle for those in the political class)
The real thing that is missing, and it's one of the faiures of modern society in a more general context, is dealing with the causes of homelessness more definitively and with more emphasis on positive outcome instead of different coercion or sequential rousting. The solution to kicking the 'minimally mentally incapacitated' (I can't think of the right euphemism du jour) out of a state-subsidized framework is not better shelters or an enhanced flow of free money requiring careful bureaucratic navigation of just the types the typical homeless can't complete. Having them 'illegally' staying safe in the tunnels is just a least-cost default. We'll need a humane alternative to 'where to put them' when the trains and passages are declared 'off-limits' for real. Where can, or should, that be, if you were asked to advise?
What could and should be done is to put together, assemble, the most successful business minded people with the express mandate of solving this problem. Keep government, social engineers, political hacks and all that out of it. These are the finest forward thinking entrepreneurial minds, people that have vision and can get it done. The solution will then come and be as a solid and permanent fix. A Presidential Commision , a Royal Commision , whatever you want to call it, but let them have at it.
( Now here is a controversial side to it, the other side of the coin.. is it somewhat possible that these very same people NEED failures in society, visible to all, threatening dire consequences if we don't keep rowing while they crack the whip? . I have heard that phrase "We Need Failures". )
Nontheless it is time to end all of it. It's not one size fits all ..Bell Curve this and I'm sure on one end you have phscotic's that can't be brought back, neurotics that can be brought back, many addictive , but also a good size bunch that just had bad luck and can't get out of the trap with no family or family that could care less.
Miningman( Now here is a controversial side to it, the other side of the coin.. is it somewhat possible that these very same people NEED failures in society, visible to all, threatening dire consequences if we don't keep rowing while they crack the whip? . I have heard that phrase "We Need Failures". )
Yes government needs problems to solve and they are careful not to ever solve them. Problems that can be dramatized for the public are useful in convincing the public that they are not paying enough taxes. Pot holes and the homeless are two examples of useful problems. They are cash cows for government.
Sad but real story below on link .. not long
Miningman Sad but real story below on link .. not long https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/02/nyregion/coronavirus-nyc-subway-homeless.html
First you say that business men should be brought together (couldn't they have come together on their own?) to solve the homeless problem... and then you show us how business men are responsible for part of the problem.
OvermodBut any effective vaccine for the general population is at least 2 years off, while the kinetics for full acquired immunity through disease remain in the range of 'about a year'. That is tantamount to an iron law of sorts. It is half the issue.
There had been a group already working on a corona virus type vaccine, that are undergoing early tests, and may be ready by the end of the year. The 1918-20 pandemic lasted 2 years.
Health scientist estimate there would be over 2 million deaths before heard immunity would be achieved, or about a 50% rise in the overall death rate during that time.
No the homeless problem needs to be solved and so far no one has a solution so you would need to ask them and put together a coalition and give them a mandate, in the interest of our countries and humanity.
I simply presented both sides , with the other side being in conflict with the mandate . I don't know if 'We Need Failures' is true but it seems rather obvious it is. We don't have debtors' prisons any more but the individual, the small guy, the mom and pop can be ruined with no alternate but the street.
Overmod asked "what would you suggest ".. That's my suggestion but it has a possible problem, so I simply pointed it out.
Its a disgrace to society and government is not the answer. Governments role is to mandate this and get out of the way.
The US already has a higher incarcerated percentage of its citizens than any other country in the world. Yep lock up the homeless, lock up the bankrupt's. All that really shouts FREEDOM!
What the bloody hell are you talking about?
MiningmanNo the homeless problem needs to be solved and so far no one has a solution so you would need to ask them (business men) and put together a coalition and give them a mandate, in the interest of our countries and humanity.
MiningmanIts a disgrace to society and government is not the answer. Governments role is to mandate this and get out of the way.
I Googled "homelessness businessmen ideas" and got 5 million hits. I guess they already solved the problem.
MiningmanWhat the bloody hell are you talking about?
Locking up the homeless and bringing back debtors prisons just like some people want to 'clean up' the country. Of course some of those 'clean up' types would prefer much more stringent steps based on such things as ethnic orign, etc.
MiningmanNo the homeless problem needs to be solved and so far no one has a solution...
The problem itself is wide and varied. Some people are genuinely down on their luck and have nowhere to go. Some are essentially "on the run" for whatever reason. Some have mental health issues. Some simply choose the homeless lifestyle.
As has been mentioned, there are issues that need to be resolved that the politicians, and others, have chosen to ignore.
Nobody is locking anyone up here and it's not about business or making money. It's about getting together the best minds in the free market side , the guys who made it happen, and present them with the challenge of their lifetime. It is these people that have vision, that have exciting ideas and if seriously asked by their government to solve this then I believe it's the best way to go about doing that. Not about jail or making money , not at all. This is 2020 not 1932, 1952 or 1962.
I'm kind of breaking my own mould here but it would be obvious there are different groups of homeless to consider. Psychotic individuals would require long term supervised care, very difficult, but in a medical and secure place and hopfully treatment could be found some day. Neurotic individuals can be brought back as useful and productive I'm sure. Addicted people are tough too, I would spread them apart far and wide but what do I know. A small cohort could go back to family with medical supervision and financial support. Another cohort of addicts could overcome their problems in time. Some find it in religion and things like that. Some addictions, like gambling, can be beaten more easily but a lot of damage has been done to others. They need new starts, a new place away from any gambling. It will then vanish for good. Drugs and booze are likely by far the biggest cohort. A solution must be found. Those that want to remain homeless , well give them a job as a deer watcher in a State Park or something with drop in supervision, as long as they have some dignity... and so on.
All people want and need dignity. That is what is needed and in 2020 the most successful amoung us will find a way to deliver that. It will be a big challenge and if asked to solve one that they would be up to.
Miningman Drugs and booze are likely by far the biggest cohort.
Indeed. I've noticed, anecdotally, that one group of drinkers is those who have some underlying "pain" in their life - some bad experience that a little alcohol seems to isolate them from. This will be a challenge, as one has to confront such pain in order to relieve it, and not everyone wants to go there.
I see that Warren Buffett has dumped ALL his airline stock.
Makes good sense to me. Saudis have picked up cruise lines ( ships) for pennies on the dollar. Massive layoffs announced by Boeing.
At my age I would not ever go on a cruise line again, I would not fly commercial airline ever again and I would not get on a subway when in Toronto . VIA out of Saskatoon maybe, but accomadations are very expensive and require far in advance booking. Not sure about that either though. Leaning to no way.
Have a daughter in Toronto, 2 more in Southern Ontario . They can load up the SUV and come to me, or we Zoom it or Skype it.
I think there'll be significant changes out of this experience. One thing my wife and I have independently realized is with learning to do all of the zoom meetings of one sort or another with people and organizations, doing that instead of driving to meetings, we really don't need a second car. We'd been starting to plan to replace our 2011 auto. Not now. Only needing one car would save a hefty amount.
After pointing out that milenials were not buying cars, a recent survey (during pandemic) now shows that many who don't own cars are now considering buying one. They are not only less enthusiastic about transit, but also want to avoid ride sharing, like Uber, or I would suppose automated bubble cars.
Makes sense. In that case they will abandon cities.
That makes sense too.
I'm thinking it's not 'our' world anymore ... the things we did and where we did them also where we lived will be changed dramatically .
Mass transit will not be acceptable in the Western World , or at least in North America. This dooms cities.
Even if they come up with an All Clear , no one will care, all trust is lost.
Keep in mind that "mass transit" includes airlines as well, though there aren't as many people packed in an airliner as is on a subway train during rush hour.
One thing that can help promote social distancing would be staggered work hours for employers, so rush hour is spread out allowing for fewer people per car. This was apparently done back the 1918 flu epidemic. A safe and effective vaccine will help as well. I also wonder if changing the HVAC "plumbing" on the cars to provide a strong downdraft would help.
Miningman Makes sense. In that case they will abandon cities. That makes sense too. I'm thinking it's not 'our' world anymore ... the things we did and where we did them also where we lived will be changed dramatically . Mass transit will not be acceptable in the Western World , or at least in North America. This dooms cities. Even if they come up with an All Clear , no one will care, all trust is lost.
That's what they said after 9/11. Also that no one would fly again. Didn't come to pass.
Miningman I see that Warren Buffett has dumped ALL his airline stock. Makes good sense to me. Saudis have picked up cruise lines ( ships) for pennies on the dollar. Massive layoffs announced by Boeing. At my age I would not ever go on a cruise line again, I would not fly commercial airline ever again and I would not get on a subway when in Toronto . VIA out of Saskatoon maybe, but accomadations are very expensive and require far in advance booking. Not sure about that either though. Leaning to no way. Have a daughter in Toronto, 2 more in Southern Ontario . They can load up the SUV and come to me, or we Zoom it or Skype it.
Join the rest of the paranoid masses or at least the ones that fall into the trap of believing the worst. 80% of the general population will have forgotten all about this 6 - 9 months after the mainstream media stops reporting on it. Viruses exist and have existed since the beginning of time, people think this is bad...just wait until more permafrost melts and ancient viruses and bacteria are released into the world, ones in which we have zero knowledge of their origins or capabilities.
I wouldn't use Zoom if it was the only video meeting platform on Earth, zero security what so ever, I don't need to use a service that exposes my PC to easy hacking(per computer security experts).
As for flying, transit and cruises...I have no problem using any of them again even if I am approaching that age of significant risk.
Buffett dumped his airline stocks because airlines don't fit his investment criteria, the only reason B H had any was because of some portfolio managers buying some in 2016 and Buffett thinking that airlines weren't a poor choice anymore. I read the reasoning on the purchasing and sell off on Fool.com(aka the Motley Fool, a good Wall Street analysis site).
Look at it this way, the Worlds population is almost 8 BILLION people and not even .1% of the population has caught this virus yet. The standards for calling a pandemic need to be updated to include real numbers, not just how easily something spreads and how many countries have it. Even in the U.S. we haven't reached .1% of the population confirmed having it yet.
I'm tired of doom and gloomers.
We use Teams at work. Haven't used Zoom yet, but thanks for the warning. Read plenty about it. Skype works ok, also just a video call but all that's one on one, or whoever happens to be there.
I'm content at this stage on this rock to stay at home, go to work, enjoy the seasons. The bratskis can come to me for a change. The score is like 8-0. Time for them to score some goals.
Driving distance is 3,227 km or 2,005 miles.
GERALD L MCFARLANE JR I'm tired of doom and gloomers.
I am with you. I will be 81 in August. My next cruise is scheduled for December 2020. If it goes I will be on it.
I have run calculated risks all my life. I am not going to hide out now.
JPS1 GERALD L MCFARLANE JR I'm tired of doom and gloomers. I am with you. I will be 81 in August. My next cruise is scheduled for December 2020. If it goes I will be on it. I have run calculated risks all my life. I am not going to hide out now.
Somewhat younger than you, and know it is impossible to live risk-free. The only time I have changed my habits is when the fears of others removed my choices.
at 88
i agree
I throughly agree with that also, but the two posts are not incompatible.
During the period of the virus infection, I live as normal a life as possible, but also are careful to oberrve all the rules that the Government places in response to the recmmendations of the overall medical profession.
During the severest lockdown period, I did not leave the Yeshiva, and prepared by having emergency supplies at the Yeshiva, where the small office became my Kosher-for-Passover bedroom and dining room. The Seder was with a couple who said I was the third member of their family, at their apartment on the Yeshiva campus, for the entire duration of the threat.
Some of the young single people have returned to the campus. But they are the ones who are delivering food to aged quarentened. So now the office as well my main studying location is unavailable to me and the on-campus rabbi, because we are elderly and thus more prone to pick-something the youngsters got from their clients. And the couple who are my adopted family also exclude themselves from that area.
As soon as the strictest lockdown was ended, I returned to spending weekday nights at my apartment, but as an elderly person, commute with the same taxi driver every day..
What I really meant was that once we have a real all-clear, and I am confident we will, I'll live a normal life again, not a life of fear. Including use of Jerusalem Light Rail, which on occasion is just as crowded as the Lexington Avenue 4 and 5 Exoresses during rush hour.
o
After this experience with social distancing people will want more space. Also more safety and security.
From the Financial Post Jack Mintz
Many businesses will have to rethink operations that until this March crowded people into airplanes, restaurants and bars, and offices. Trying to boost density has been the goal of much recent urban policy. Not any more! Rather than take public transit, many people will prefer driving alone to work. Living in an unattached single home will trump a densely crowded condo development. Travel for domestic vacations may feel safer than travel to a far away destination. People likely will be willing to pay a premium for space if it means more health protection at gyms, grocery stores and entertainment facilities.
Nothing 'doom and gloom' about any of that. My kids can come visit me for a change, be good for them to see the country instead of their usual Caribbean and Mexican holidays. I'm not flying commercial any more, period. Not interested in a cruise either. Northern Saskatchewan is one mighty big piece of pristine real estate "Big Lan, Few Pipple" . Lots of Exploration to do. Rocks to hammer, boating, fishing... enough!
The world is very urbanized, and getting more so. Most people don't have a choice to spread out.
MidlandMikeThe world is very urbanized, and getting more so.
It's been said that that is some people's goal...
The ideal place to live is a population 15,000-30,000.
tree68It's been said that that is some people's goal...
A lot of people love the idea of being isolated, but the rallies with people complaining that they can't go get their nails done, go to starbucks every day, or wonder target for no reason on a Friday night lead me to belive that it is just the idea they love. Not the reality. Most people are lost if they aren't constantly entertained or able to get their instant gratifications.
zugmannA lot of people love the idea of being isolated,...
I'm about a quarter mile from a small convenience store, but 7 miles from the nearest grocery store of any size, and 15 miles from the nearest small city.
While I was sitting in my back yard at oh-dark-thirty watching for meteors last week, all I could hear was the falls on the nearby creek and the occasional (very occasional) car on the state highway. Light pollution was near zero - the moon being the biggest problem.
And that's how it is with this entire area - small hamlets and villages of 500-700 people, spread out. If I need something, I can get it.
The point of my comment was not the people who want to live in relative isolation - it was the "planners" who would prefer we all live in cities.
tree68The point of my comment was not the people who want to live in relative isolation - it was the "planners" who would prefer we all live in cities.
Some urban planners do - hence their name. But regional planning is a thing, too. Just doesn't get much attention as its sibling.
I just don't like when people demean "planners". I live in an area that would have benefitted from much more planning that it received. Unfortunately, planning is often ignored, and it's why I have to drive through 45 useless traffic lights that shouldn't be there.
I do think there will be a rebound from this disaster that will find people thinking about doing with less, saving their money, and living out in the country. Vacations and travel will decline. Home based businesses will surge. There will be unbelievable fallout from this miserable episode. What we have been hit with is much larger than many people can grasp.
I heard a statistic today that we have increased the U.S. money supply in circulation by a factor of three times. The source said that this will cause bigtime inflation, but it will be a couple years out. In the meantime, the value of real estate will plunge, leading to massive defaults and repossession of property. So now is the time to plan your future. As Tom Petty once sang: "The future is wide open."
zugmann I just don't like when people demean "planners". I live in an area that would have benefitted from much more planning that it received. Unfortunately, planning is often ignored, and it's why I have to drive through 45 useless traffic lights that shouldn't be there.
But too much planning will give you traffic circles.
zugmannSome urban planners do - hence their name.
Further clarification: Social planners. Future tyrants. Much easier to control people if they're all in one place...
If I go any further into it, this will become a political discussion.
EuclidBut too much planning will give you traffic circles.
We have a couple. They actually work good if morons would stop stopping in them when not needed.
tree68Further clarification: Social planners. Future tyrants. Much easier to control people if they're all in one place...
But you have to be careful with the other side of the coin. People move out to the country, next thing you know you have housing developments, traffic circles, and strip malls with cell phone stores and gym franchises.
tree68 zugmann Some urban planners do - hence their name. Further clarification: Social planners. Future tyrants. Much easier to control people if they're all in one place... If I go any further into it, this will become a political discussion.
zugmann Some urban planners do - hence their name.
Your paranoia already nailed you!
I have a book called Cities Without Suburbs by David Rusk. It makes clear the war between being allowed to live in suburbs versus living in a modern city of New Urbanism where eveything has to be just so. That is where you go to find planning.
charlie hebdoYour paranoia already nailed you!
Just repeating what I've read in the past. And if the current batch of petit tyrants doesn't scare you, it should.
EuclidI have a book called Cities Without Suburbs by David Rusk. It makes clear the war between being allowed to live in suburbs versus living in a modern city of New Urbanism where eveything has to be just so. That is where you go to find planning.
Hey, if it's in a book.
zugmann tree68 Further clarification: Social planners. Future tyrants. Much easier to control people if they're all in one place...
tree68 Further clarification: Social planners. Future tyrants. Much easier to control people if they're all in one place...
Paul wrote, "Maybe sometime I'll post a thread about grade crossings running through traffic circles - now called 'roundabouts' to differentiate them. "
While not a grade crossing, the picture below is a streetcar line that is in New Orleans at Lee Circle (now without Robert E. Lee's statue!).
Even though the streetcars move fairly slowly, there are still mixups.
I realize this picture doesn't clearly show the tracks.
Streetcars going upriver enter the circle at the top from St. Charles. They travel around and exit at the bottom of the circle.
Streetcars going the other direction enter the circle from the bottom. They travel ¾ of the way around the circle and exit on Howard Ave.
The circle is the split where traffic going upriver is on a two-way street, where after leaving the circle downriver traffic is divided onto one-way streets.
Many tourists who drive St. Charles Ave. get confused when streetcars are running through the circle. I'm confused trying to describe it!
York1 Paul wrote, "Maybe sometime I'll post a thread about grade crossings running through traffic circles - now called 'roundabouts' to differentiate them. " While not a grade crossing, the picture below is a streetcar line that is in New Orleans at Lee Circle (now without Robert E. Lee's statue!). Even though the streetcars move fairly slowly, there are still mixups. I realize this picture doesn't clearly show the tracks. Streetcars going upriver enter the circle at the top from St. Charles. They travel around and exit at the bottom of the circle. Streetcars going the other direction enter the circle from the bottom. They travel ¾ of the way around the circle and exit on Howard Ave. The circle is the split where traffic going upriver is on a two-way street, where after leaving the circle downriver traffic is divided onto one-way streets. Many tourists who drive St. Charles Ave. get confused when streetcars are running through the circle. I'm confused trying to describe it!
Finished. Done for. Better fiqure out what's next . Not going to happen even if declared 'all clear'. It will be "I might be healthy, but you can't trust that, and you might be healthy, but I can't trust that."
zugmannWe have a couple. They actually work good if morons would stop stopping in them when not needed.
Unfortunately today's drivers aren't trained on how to use them. Well, maybe today's high school kids learn about them in Drivers Ed, but we sure didn't 50 years ago. My father, who grew up in the 40's had to show me what a traffic circle was all about. Depending on the part of the country they used to be pretty common from the 20's through the 40's, and some lasted in New Jersey well into the 70's. There MAY still be some in the less-developed parts of the state but I'm not sure about that.
Back in the day had to spend many a day in BOS . There were circles all over and got to observe how the natives handled them. Came in good stead for many years. Now we have some around here and it gives a chuckle to watch various wrong ways to transit the circles. And yes wrong way is one incident that I've observed.
I think they should just fill the subways with concrete... that way, in a thousand years it'll drive the archeologists nuts trying to figure out what kind of religious sect built an underground web of interconnecting 16 ft. diameter concrete filaments.
Semper Vaporo
Pkgs.
Flintlock76 zugmann We have a couple. They actually work good if morons would stop stopping in them when not needed. Unfortunately today's drivers aren't trained on how to use them. Well, maybe today's high school kids learn about them in Drivers Ed, but we sure didn't 50 years ago. My father, who grew up in the 40's had to show me what a traffic circle was all about. Depending on the part of the country they used to be pretty common from the 20's through the 40's, and some lasted in New Jersey well into the 70's. There MAY still be some in the less-developed parts of the state but I'm not sure about that.
zugmann We have a couple. They actually work good if morons would stop stopping in them when not needed.
I believe Wisconsin has more traffic circles than it does covid-19 cases. Near Sheboygan there are 4 all within sight of each other. More elsewhere!
Semper Vaporo-- There was an Issac Asimov short story about beings from another planet that landed on earth. One day they unearthed a STOP sign, the only thing left of civilization by a quirk of fate. The tale was about all the interpretations and meanings of the sign. Their conclusions made perfect sense but not even close to what it was. Hilarious.
BaltACDI believe Wisconsin has more traffic circles than it does covid-19 cases. Near Sheboygan there are 4 all within sight of each other. More elsewhere!
New England - home of the traffic circle.
Some know them as "roundabouts."
tree68 BaltACD I believe Wisconsin has more traffic circles than it does covid-19 cases. Near Sheboygan there are 4 all within sight of each other. More elsewhere! New England - home of the traffic circle. Some know them as "roundabouts."
BaltACD I believe Wisconsin has more traffic circles than it does covid-19 cases. Near Sheboygan there are 4 all within sight of each other. More elsewhere!
There were some in Connecticut when I was a kid. People there called them "rotaries." There's more traffic cricles now outside of medium-sized Canadian cities like Kitchener and Cambridge than there were ten years ago. There's none in and around Toronto but I guess they'll be coming sooner or later. They are very common in France and Belgium but over there people know how to use them. I drove there last summer (the first time I ever drove in Europe) and had no trouble.
They've been making an appearance in Michigan, as well.
Of course, Michigan already has that phenomenon known as the "Michigan Left." That tends to baffle some people...
tree68 They've been making an appearance in Michigan, as well. Of course, Michigan already has that phenomenon known as the "Michigan Left." That tends to baffle some people...
That's odd, I thought the "Michigan Left" was who controlled the state house.
Sorry folks, I just couldn't resist!
And if some out there can't take a little humor, chill out, OK?
tree68Of course, Michigan already has that phenomenon known as the "Michigan Left." That tends to baffle some people...
I always thought of this as a response to the same issue that produced the New Jersey 'jughandles' (which did not always happen only at T intersections; there were examples at River Edge Rd. off Hackensack Rd northbound and at one of the intersections in the east "Princeton" area from north Rt. 1, I think to Harrison St. WB) Why more jurisdictions didn't use the things where they had room, I don't know. Part of it probably involves lights at any controlled intersection...
For best performance of 'left turn' it is hard to beat a seagull intersection, again if you have the room. This can completely get rid of the need for lights on one-half a nominally-divided roadway ... if you can tamper a bit with which lanes are divided from others. This is the 'other half' of the solution I've been promoting for traffic up and down Farm Road in Shelby Farms Park in the eastern Memphis area, where development has vastly increased traffic count but 'don't split Shelby Farms' is a further watchword for the folks who successfully blocked a real I-40.
The problem with Michigan Lefts is that they require substantial formal acceleration lanes ... but usually don't get them. The exposure to high-speed 'passing lane' traffic is greatly magnified if there is any kind of 'failure to yield', and the arrangement requires acceleration not just sufficient to 'clear' the fast lane (as, albeit often heart-stoppingly, in a normal left turn) but to accelerate all the way up to a full transition and merge across the fast lane, then quick merge across other potentially traffic-bearing lanes, while decelerating back to safe turning speed.
For those not familiar with the "Michigan left", find Highland, MI on your favorite map program and follow M59 west. You'll see plenty of examples.
One advantage to the concept is that it doesn't leave traffic backed up across one set of lanes. While there may not be sufficient acceleration space, there's usually enough space in a turn lane before the "U" for said backup.
The rail line just to the east of the Milford Road / M59 intersection is the former CSX "Saginaw Sub" (nee Chessie, nee C&O, nee Pere Marquette).
And if anyone cares, I used to live at N 42.63417 W 83.70535 on M59. The house is long gone, and our landlord's house was moved far back from the highway when they increased the road from two lanes to four.
We have something like those "Michigan lefts" here used with making left turns onto other roads; after you turn left off one road, you wait at a traffic light to turn left on the other road. It can be a long wait.
I'm glad I do not drive any more.
New England - home of the traffic circle. Some know them as "roundabouts." In Boston they are known as "rotaries".
There's a famous song about Roundabouts, but darned if I know any songs about rotaries.
My first experience with a rotary was the one on Route 2 & 2A in Concord Mass and smaller versions are becoming quite common here in San Diego county.
York1, thanks for sharing the photo and explanation. Didn't know about that one. I was only in New Orleans once about 51 years ago, right after Hurricane Camille. Rode the St. Charles line a couple times, but in the other direction, I think.
A traffic circle near my daughter's house has issues during rush hour. Large numbers of cars going north enter the circle from the south and exit north half-way around.
Cars coming from the east heading west have almost no chance to get into the circle. You can sit for several minutes before being able to enter the steady stream of cars. After rush hour, the circle works fairly well.
My observation has been that a traffic circle works better with limited "spokes" and a larger diameter. I've ridden in cabs in the Dominican Republic that went through large diameter traffic circles (near Punta Cana) in which I did not fear for my life.
Around here they are working toward just sticking a flower pot in the middle of an existing intersection and calling it a round-a-bout.
Semper VaporoAround here they are working toward just sticking a flowre pot in the middle of an existing intersection and calling it a round-a-bout.
They basically did that here when the city took over a commonly used portion of a parking lot and turned it into a city street. The spot where two existing streets and the new one intersect with a rear access road for the shopping center now has a small circle. In fact, they had to construct it so large trucks could also get through. It's not very busy, though, just saves a full stop if no other traffic is in sight.
We do have another spot that could be referred functionally to as a circle/rotary/roundabout, although it's about two blocks long by half a block wide. Known as Public Square, it's been here for many years (going back to the horse-drawn era) with several "formats," and these days includes traffic lights (which traffic circles don't have). Still, traffic moves around it counter-clockwise with a number of entry/exit points.
They've done "test roundabounts" around here where they basically have a pentagram of cones or barrels in the middle of an intersection. No signage, no lane markings - then they wonder why people aren't following it correctly.
Semper Vaporo Around here they are working toward just sticking a flowre pot in the middle of an existing intersection and calling it a round-a-bout.
Around here they are working toward just sticking a flowre pot in the middle of an existing intersection and calling it a round-a-bout.
See what happens if a big truck tries to get around it.
MidlandMike Semper Vaporo Around here they are working toward just sticking a flowre pot in the middle of an existing intersection and calling it a round-a-bout. See what happens if a big truck tries to get around it.
If he is going straight, no problem. If he is turning right he might have to pull to the left, and might hit it if he pulls to far to the left, but if turning right... hmmmm... well make it a short flower pot and his tractor can go on one side and the trailer wheels can pass on the other side... maybe?
The small circle I mentioned has the road around the outside, a paved area inside of that, then a small island. The idea is that cars and other smaller vehicles stay on the road portion, and larger vehicles can use the inner paved area. I've seen other small traffic circles like that.
Tell them to quit putting so much mayo on their sandwiches .
Roundabouts cause more accidents, but fewer deaths and injuries. They are part of the regulatory fashion known as "traffic calming." They also promote traffic fairness. It is unfair to give a high speed road the right of way over lower speed roads. So they must take turns. They are similar to a living wage.
https://www.citylab.com/design/2017/03/the-other-side-of-roundabouts-more-crashes/518484/
Euclid Roundabouts cause more accidents, but fewer deaths and injuries. They are part of the regulatory fashion known as "traffic calming." They also promote traffic fairness. It is unfair to give a high speed road the right of way over lower speed roads. So they must take turns. They are similar to a living wage. https://www.citylab.com/design/2017/03/the-other-side-of-roundabouts-more-crashes/518484/
From your source:
"Burdett and crew focused on crashes involving single vehicles—such as when somebody suddenly careens off the shoulder—which have an oddly high occurrence at roundabouts. Between 30 to 50 percent of accidents at single-lane roundabouts around the U.S. have involved lone vehicles. "
They're cherry pikcing one type of wreck and damning the whole concept. I don't think it's a fair report.
Your comment about a living wage has nothing to do with anything, except I guess you didn't want to waste your soapbox?
What is unfair about the report?
It's basing conclusions on one factor - single vehicle accidents. It's a conclusion reaching for evidence.
And how many of them were people playing Tokyo Drift? I mean, I've been tempted but my truck is as far from a drift car as you can get.
There's a lot of people that don't like traffic circles. I didn't initially - until I've seen some ones that made a lot of sense. Beats putting traffic lights up every 500'.
Traffic calming is a popular reason for the smaller circles. Larger circles often involve multiple route possibilities, making for a complicated intersection and the required signalling if they all came in to one point.
tree68Traffic calming is a popular reason for the smaller circles. Larger circles often involve multiple route possibilities, making for a complicated intersection and the required signalling if they all came in to one point.
I'm sure you've been to Latham. That's a fun one.
zugmannI'm sure you've been to Latham. That's a fun one.
I haven't, actually.
But I've spent some time in New England, including MA, NH, and ME. That's enough for me.
Miningman Maybe... possibly ... if I had to ride the subway to work I would refuse to do so. Ennui-- definition ' a feeling of listlessness and dissatisfaction arising from a lack of occupation or excitement' example ' he succumbed to ennui and despair' So both the Flames of Hell and the Flames of Ennui
So, no subway for you. In a city such as New York, what would be your alternate mode? Taxi, which you effectively share with every other person who has ridden in it. Bus - just another subway from a pandemic perspective. Drive your own car - not. That leaves walking or something akin to a peda-cab (which is just another form of taxi-cab). Have fun.
tree68At the present, the problem has been exascerbated by a reduction in the number of trains running, packing the remaining riders in even tighter.
Yup. As has been pointed out many times lately, reducing the number of trains or closing some of the stations merely has the effect of crowding more people into the remaining trains and stations.
Is this the one you are refering to? https://www.google.com/maps/place/Latham,+NY+12110/@42.7479853,-73.7614905,274m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x89de0dd1ddaaf189:0x21f90d817863ebcd!8m2!3d42.7477661!4d-73.760537
Then there's the one in West Springfield, MA that attendees at the Amherst show are probably familiar with. N 42.09751 W 72.59696
There's another, similar circle about a mile north on Riverdale Street as well.
There's a big difference between traffic circles and roundabouts. Roundabouts put in here at killer intersections have all but eliminated severe and fatal accidents.
https://www.mtjengineering.com/
Miningman The ideal place to live is a population 15,000-30,000. I disagree. The ideal place to live is on the outskirts of a population of 15,000-30,000. Close enough to have everything you need but distant enough not to have to face urban problems plus you get more land with your house.
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