~From Professor Jeffrey E Harris of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, a new paper:
New York City's multitentacled subway system was a major disseminator – if not the principal transmission vehicle – of coronavirus infection during the initial takeoff of the massive epidemic that became evident throughout the city during March 2020. The near shutoff of subway ridership in Manhattan – down by over 90 percent at the end of March – correlates strongly with the substantial increase in the doubling time of new cases in this borough. Maps of subway station turnstile entries, superimposed upon zip code-level maps of reported coronavirus incidence, are strongly consistent with subway-facilitated disease propagation.
From Mark Steyn:
A subway car is the opposite of social distancing: With each jolt of the train, the petite strap-hanging blonde has her nose pressed deeper into the chest hair of the sweaty corpulent guy she doesn't know. Professor Harris makes the point that reducing service, as both New York and London have done, doesn't really help with that - because it's better to have a thousand people spread out over three different trains rather than wedged into one.
This is a really really big problem.
Unfortunately it's a problem with no easy solution.
The subways are there, they won't and can't be abandoned, they have to be used. When the virus is over (and eventually it will be) people will be back riding and living with any possible risk. Viruses of all kinds will always be with us.
Maybe... possibly ... if I had to ride the subway to work I would refuse to do so.
Ennui-- definition ' a feeling of listlessness and dissatisfaction arising from a lack of occupation or excitement' example ' he succumbed to ennui and despair'
So both the Flames of Hell and the Flames of Ennui
[quote user="Flintlock76"]
The subways are there, they won't and can't be abandoned, they have to be used. When the virus is over (and eventually it will be) people will be back riding and living with any possible risk. Viruses of all kinds will always be with us
I think a bigger problem, long term, is going to be sea-level rise during storm surge conditions. It caused millions in damage and weeks of outage after super-storm Sandy. There have been other flooding events with lesser damage but I think we've seen the handwriting on the wall. Thr els of yesteryear, noisy though were, have the advantage of relative immunity from flooding . And they're much less costly to build and maintain to say nothing of less time intensive. Operational cost and reliability will determine the outcome of this issuie--hopefully sooner rather than later.
..
If the future of human occupation of the Earth is Social Distancing - human occupation is in serious danger. 7+ Billion people and only so much inhabitable land area.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
Subways, Metros and crowded passenger trains in general survived the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, and they will survive this.
Life will return to normal eventually, though it may take years.
Greetings from Alberta
-an Articulate Malcontent
At the present, the problem has been exascerbated by a reduction in the number of trains running, packing the remaining riders in even tighter.
That was from a retired subway supervisor about a week ago. They may have gotten smart and returned to the normal schedule of trains since then.
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
Buses are involved, too.
Nails in public transit's coffin, unfortunately.
tree68That was from a retired subway supervisor about a week ago. They may have gotten smart and returned to the normal schedule of trains since then.
I thought it was a case of not having the employees avaliable? Many were out sick.
The opinions expressed here represent my own and not those of my employer, any other railroad, company, or person.
GrampBuses are involved, too.
Our local bus company has reduced service to where the last bus each day runs at 3:15 PM, and there is a maximum number of passengers of 9 on each bus.
With most routes only running once per hour, I can imagine how frustrating it would be to wait for a bus, only to be denied entry due to the maximum passenger restriction, and have to wait another hour HOPING it was not at capacity.
Being an essential employee depending on the bus would not be a fun thing.
zugmannI thought it was a case of not having the employees avaliable? Many were out sick.
I've seen indications that it was mandated by government officials. Probably a little of both.
I don't know... sea change coming. What does the world look like a year from now? Incredibly huge changes are in store.
Changes in power, custom and attitude.
I question if my College will ever reopen. Every time a student gets a cold they will disappear for 2 weeks easy. It will have to be on line at their own pace. That's a lot of layoffs , a lot of loss of privacy, a lot of monitoring.
Many things across the board will have to be done in very different ways.
I would not live anywhere near a city.
If you're at a restaurant, or theatre, or concert and someone coughs all hell breaks loose. People will be treated like lepers, social pariahas.
Thinking subways and mass transit will somehow have to have restricted access. Even then it dosen't work if you think about it.
There is no way in hell I would get on a subway .
Furthermore I believe those that wish Western Society harm or some kook ( as I've stated previously) is dusting off the old bunson burner right now seeing how easy this is to bring it all to an end. I don't think we are that far from chaos. Got to hold the line!
Security and Monitoring on a worldwide basis will really have to step up.
MiningmanMaybe... possibly ... if I had to ride the subway to work I would refuse to do so.
It's prohibitly expenseve to park in Manhattan. There would not be the street or parking capacity to circumvent the sybway system.
MidlandMike Miningman Maybe... possibly ... if I had to ride the subway to work I would refuse to do so. It's prohibitly expenseve to park in Manhattan. There would not be the street or parking capacity to circumvent the sybway system.
Miningman Maybe... possibly ... if I had to ride the subway to work I would refuse to do so.
I am not a New Yorker and don't have a New York state of mind.
That being said, us 'outsiders' don't comprehend that most New Yorkers live IN New York - their commute might be from 30th Street to 199th Street - all within the City of New York. The commuters form New Jersey, Staten Island, Long Island, Westchester County are rich enough to afford their form of commutation, be that ferry, train or automobile and the expenses that go with each mode.
Remember the damage from 9/11 affected more than just business properties - it affected schools and housing units. When you live in New York, YOU LIVE IN NEW YORK.
My personal experience with other 'big' cities are that vey few people live in the main commercial area of the city - that does not apply in New York.
Miningman - I suspect you are now working as close to NYC as you ever will!
Some suburban commuters are lucky to work in midtown within walking distance from GCT or NYP, but others may need to make a transit connection for beyond those stations.
Miningman ~From Professor Jeffrey E Harris of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, a new paper: Maps of subway station turnstile entries, superimposed upon zip code-level maps of reported coronavirus incidence, are strongly consistent with subway-facilitated disease propagation.
Maps of subway station turnstile entries, superimposed upon zip code-level maps of reported coronavirus incidence, are strongly consistent with subway-facilitated disease propagation.
- PDN.
More disinfecting, UV treatment of surfaces, no cash transactions.
azrail More disinfecting, UV treatment of surfaces, no cash transactions.
That could be part of it.
We really do not know at this point why the NYC subway system contributed to the very awful situation there whereas other cities with comparable density and transit usage are much less affected.
Availability and social custom of wearing face masks in flu season? More resources put into keeping the subways and trains clean? Shutting the system down in the overnight? More rigorous exclusion of riders not conforming to social norms for crowd etiquette? Other factors having nothing to do with what I just mentioned?
If GM "killed the electric car", what am I doing standing next to an EV-1, a half a block from the WSOR tracks?
Paul MilenkovicWe really do not know at this point why the NYC subway system contributed to the very awful situation there whereas other cities with comparable density and transit usage are much less affected.
The fact that the number of trains running was cut is undoubtedly a factor.
Research is showing that "casual contact" isn't as responsible for transmission as may have been suggested, however I would opine that being packed into a subway car like a sardine isn't "casual contact."
While we don't know how much the NYC subways contirbuted to the case rate in the area, I think it is safe to assume that the contribution was signficant.
I've seen multiple reports that the subway system is vital to "essential workers", so it would make sense to limit ridership to essential workers in future pandemics along with sufficient service to prevent crowding. Face masks and other sanitary measures would be a help.
Cash transactions have been going away for a while. Toronto streetcars and buses do not accept cash and the subway stations are slowly becoming un-staffed. People use the Presto card which I am told can be used in Ottawa and Montreal. London has been cash-free for a few years but there are some exceptions there. Stations in London no longer have ticket/cash counters but they do have attendants standing near the gates to assist riders.
Rio Grande Valley, CFI,CFII
While not directly about the subways, one reason NYC may have had a more severe problem than other crowded cities could be the NYC mayor's response.
By the middle of March, most cities had already instituted isolation policies.
NYC's mayor, on the other hand, on March 11, was still encouraging New Yorkers to go out and enjoy the restaurants and bars.
https://ny.eater.com/2020/3/11/21175497/coronavirus-nyc-restaurants-safe-dine-out
York1 John
York1By the middle of March, most cities had already instituted isolation policies.
Which cities?
zugmannWhich cities?
Sorry. I'm speaking from memory, and do not have the evidence.
zugmann York1 By the middle of March, most cities had already instituted isolation policies. Which cities?
York1 By the middle of March, most cities had already instituted isolation policies.
Several counties in the SF Bay Area were in lock down (shelter in place) by St Patrick's day and a CA statewide ban on large gatherings was in place a week before. NY state's stay at home order started 69 hours after CA's statewide order even though the CA infection rate per capita was maybe 10% of the NYS rate.
One thing where I have to give Cuomo credit for was giving people a couple of days to get prepared for the lockdown. Newsom only allowed 5 hours which leads me to believe that he is confusing making "bold" decisions is the same thing as leadership (unfortunately he is not the only political figure with that delusion). True leadership involves effective planning, as opposed to reacting.
I hear that subways make fine wine cellars, bomb shelters and mushroom farms. In Cincinnati, the lazy city civil engineers laid twin 72" raw water lines in one of the twin bores that has yet to see a train. (The above ground streetcars are well on their way to oblivion - nobody to blame but the clueless transportation planners. Often referred to as the streetcar to nowhere. KC was much closer to getting it right.)
mudchickenKC was much closer to getting it right.
When they killed the last one in 1955, or when they started putting them back?
ChuckCobleigh mudchicken KC was much closer to getting it right. When they killed the last one in 1955, or when they started putting them back?
mudchicken KC was much closer to getting it right.
SD70Dude Subways, Metros and crowded passenger trains in general survived the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, and they will survive this. Life will return to normal eventually, though it may take years.
If there's anything you can learn from past human behaviour it won't be years on the scale you might be thinking. Depending on when the waves crest and news shifts to something else entirely(this is an important point, out of site out of mind) people will go back to normal sooner rather than later.
Example being say the virus is out of the news buy the end of summer and all we're inundated with from that point on is election news, and there's no mention of the virus at all. People will forget about it much quicker than something like 9/11 since it's ephemeral and not material, there's no physical reminder of the virus ever having been present aside from people you may know having died from it, where as after 9/11 we had the destroyed WTC to remind us every day for several years of what happened.
Erik_Magzugmann York1 By the middle of March, most cities had already instituted isolation policies. Which cities? Several counties in the SF Bay Area were in lock down (shelter in place) by St Patrick's day and a CA statewide ban on large gatherings was in place a week before. NY state's stay at home order started 69 hours after CA's statewide order even though the CA infection rate per capita was maybe 10% of the NYS rate. One thing where I have to give Cuomo credit for was giving people a couple of days to get prepared for the lockdown. Newsom only allowed 5 hours which leads me to believe that he is confusing making "bold" decisions is the same thing as leadership (unfortunately he is not the only political figure with that delusion). True leadership involves effective planning, as opposed to reacting.
Are you implying 5 hours wasn't sufficient time for people to do something they new was coming at least a day or two before? Yes, speculation in the news media isn't concrete proof something is going to happen, but what exactly did people have to plan for that 5 hours notice wasn't enough?
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