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Train 188 Tragic Accident – What is the Complete Story? Locked

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Posted by 243129 on Sunday, September 9, 2018 9:36 AM

charlie hebdo

 

 
243129

Do you really expect me to answer you after you have run from every question I have posed to you?

 

 

 

No. you are simply  trolling.  You have no plan as Amtrak quickly discovered.

 

Your replies to me are similar to those of a petulant child. You will be relegated to my ignore list with your fellow 'sniper'.

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Posted by 243129 on Sunday, September 9, 2018 9:38 AM

How appropriate.Smile

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Posted by BaltACD on Sunday, September 9, 2018 10:25 AM

In the age of steam - what was the vetting to be hired?  What was the training after being hired?  How did a fireman progress to be a engineer.  Did engineers do shovel or stoker duty so firemen could get seat time at the throttle?

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Posted by zugmann on Sunday, September 9, 2018 10:30 AM

243129
Your replies to me are similar to those of a petulant child. You will be relegated to my ignore list with your fellow 'sniper'.

That's what 243129 does when he can't answer your questions.  He just pretends not to read your posts.  

I'm getting Tshirts printed.  The rate he's going, I better order more.

TOSZ

 

It's been fun.  But it isn't much fun anymore.   Signing off for now. 


  

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Posted by 243129 on Sunday, September 9, 2018 10:34 AM

BaltACD
How did a fireman progress to be a engineer. Did engineers do shovel or stoker duty so firemen could get seat time

Yes they did. My father and great uncle fired steam and became engineers.

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Posted by zugmann on Sunday, September 9, 2018 10:56 AM

With railroads like the CSX saying they are looking to one-man operations within a few years and no-man operations in the distant furute, I hope nobody thinks that the return of the fireman craft is even a remote possibility.

It's been fun.  But it isn't much fun anymore.   Signing off for now. 


  

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Posted by Anonymous on Sunday, September 9, 2018 11:43 AM

Euclid
Can you cite some examples of “diagnosis by exclusion” being used for accident investigations?

Almost all accident investigations work this way. Take the #188 accident. The primary cause sprang at them, too high speed. But why is not as obvious.?

When we searched for reasons of mistakes we made a list of possible reasons and tried to find evidence for them. If we couldn't find the cause got of the list.

For #188 the list might have included e.g. locomotive failure, medical impairments, drug or alcohol abuse, fatige, cell phone use, loss of situational awareness etc. One by one is looked for evidence. The evidence for loss of situational awareness fit on other propable causes like medical reasons too. So you need to eliminate them.

Euclid
Why would there be such an essential need for reaching a conclusion as to the cause of an accident?

The NTSB accident investigations are intended to avoid similar accidents in the future. Without propable cause NTSB has nothing to base its recommendations on.

Euclid
My basic point is that I do not believe that the NTSB is able to rule out all potential causes for the crash of 188 besides the one they have chosen as probable.

Sometimes you have to believe that NTSB does it job and eliminates possible causes with virtual certainty.

Euclid
For instance, they say they asked the engineer if he was fatigued, and he said no. Is the engineer’s word on a question loaded with such consequences reliable? And what about shiftwork sleep disorders?

No, and that is not where they stop. The check the engineer's work schedule over days, his resting time and what he did etc.

I said before a number of causes can lead to the symptoms the engineer showed.

I'm glad that NTSB and similar institutions in Germany are governmental organizations. And NTSB has shown that is doesn't spare Amtrak as the Chester report has shown.
Regards, Volker

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Sunday, September 9, 2018 12:42 PM

PETULANT? RELEGATED?

 

Joe's got a Thesaurus.  My, my!!

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Posted by Euclid on Monday, September 10, 2018 10:27 AM

VOLKER LANDWEHR
I'm glad that NTSB and similar institutions in Germany are governmental organizations. And NTSB has shown that is doesn't spare Amtrak as the Chester report has shown.Regards, Volker

Yes, the NTSB’s criticism of Amtrak’s safety culture in their report of the Chester wreck is reassuring.  It will be very interesting to see if they apply this same attitude toward the 501 wreck which seems to indicate a worsening problem with Amtrak’s safety culture. 

Regarding the investigation process and its application to the 188 wreck, I am interested in the actual cause, and if the probable cause is probable enough, then I am satisfied with the investigation.  However, “probable enough,” is subjective and the perception of it will vary from person to person.  I would conclude that the most probable cause for the derailment of 188 was that the engineer mistakenly believed that he had already passed the curve.  

There is no evidence of what caused the engineer to forget that he had not yet passed the curve.  The actual probable causes for forgetting something are endless, and there is no way to distinguish their relative probability.  To me, blaming Bostian’s memory mistake on being disturbed by hearing a radio transmission seems like just a handy peg to hang your hat on.  It also seems like a beneficial excuse intentionally given to Bostian by the NTSB. 

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Posted by Anonymous on Monday, September 10, 2018 12:56 PM

Euclid
Regarding the investigation process and its application to the 188 wreck, I am interested in the actual cause, and if the probable cause is probable enough, then I am satisfied with the investigation.

In my opinion you'll only find an actual cause when you are able to nail an accident to a mechanical/technical failure. Everything else will lead to propable causes.

Euclid
To me, blaming Bostian’s memory mistake on being disturbed by hearing a radio transmission seems like just a handy peg to hang your hat on.

I think they didn't find evidence for other reasons for the engineer's loss of situational awareness. And it gives a starting point for recommandations.

Euclid
It also seems like a beneficial excuse intentionally given to Bostian by the NTSB.

As NTSB final reports are not allowed in court because of the judgements, what would it help?
Regards, Volker

Edit: Here is a link to the NTSB's document docket regarding the Amtrak #188 accident. It contains 174 documents. Perhaps there is the information you look for.

https://dms.ntsb.gov/pubdms/search/hitlist.cfm?docketID=58167&CFID=2147484&CFTOKEN=be7d3eb9bc4ce19c-AE646811-0D0A-FB8D-6F54920BFB267E75

 

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Posted by 243129 on Monday, September 10, 2018 4:43 PM

Bostian's testimony is that of one who has 'lawyered up'

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Posted by Euclid on Monday, September 10, 2018 5:18 PM

VOLKER LANDWEHR
EuclidIt also seems like a beneficial excuse intentionally given to Bostian by the NTSB. As NTSB final reports are not allowed in court because of the judgements, what would it help?Regards, Volker

It would help his reputation, help him gain public sympathy, and maybe help him with the jury.  I believe the NTSB intended this sort of effect.

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Posted by blue streak 1 on Monday, September 10, 2018 5:53 PM

About situational awareness.  Have been on 2 trains where awareness was lost.  

1.  South bound on Hell gate route where train had an overspeed enforced stop.  Believe MAS at that location was 100 MPH ?

2.  North bound on Eagle between SAS and FTW.  Engineer did not obey  approach signal and next was a diverging approach CP that we went thru at 48 MPH by my GPS. Found out turn out speed was 25 MPH  Was in lounge car and we were slung to right but fortunately no one hurt.  Passed that info on to conductor at FTW in case of any lawsuits.  BTW the signals were searchlight and we had noted that they were sometimes hard to read !

Tthese two incidents has caused us to believe that situational awareness loss happens more often that  stats show !

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Posted by n012944 on Monday, September 10, 2018 5:58 PM

Euclid

 

 
VOLKER LANDWEHR
EuclidIt also seems like a beneficial excuse intentionally given to Bostian by the NTSB. As NTSB final reports are not allowed in court because of the judgements, what would it help?Regards, Volker

 

It would help his reputation, help him gain public sympathy, and maybe help him with the jury.  I believe the NTSB intended this sort of effect.

 

 

I doubt the NTSB cares one bit how Bostian appears in the public's eye.  

An "expensive model collector"

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Posted by 243129 on Monday, September 10, 2018 6:44 PM

blue streak 1
1. South bound on Hell gate route where train had an overspeed enforced stop. Believe MAS at that location was 100 MPH ?

You are correct. The MAS is 100MPH and the restriction on the curve/drawbridge is 45 MPH. Had not that track been coded for speed control you would have ended up in the Hutchinson River.

ACSES/PTC/ATC 'running' the train is more often than not the norm. Scary isn't it?

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Posted by zugmann on Monday, September 10, 2018 8:44 PM

Euclid
It would help his reputation, help him gain public sympathy, and maybe help him with the jury. I believe the NTSB intended this sort of effect.

You really have a thing for NTSB conspiracy theories, don't you?

It's been fun.  But it isn't much fun anymore.   Signing off for now. 


  

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Posted by BaltACD on Monday, September 10, 2018 10:00 PM

zugmann
 
Euclid
It would help his reputation, help him gain public sympathy, and maybe help him with the jury. I believe the NTSB intended this sort of effect. 

You really have a thing for NTSB conspiracy theories, don't you?

I have never heard of the NTSB trying to set the stage for 'personal sympathy' for anyone in an investigation.  

I do however, believe the NTSB can be swayed account political issues in some investigations.

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

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Posted by Euclid on Monday, September 10, 2018 10:07 PM

BaltACD
I have never heard of the NTSB trying to set the stage for 'personal sympathy' for anyone in an investigation.

I don't think they do it that often. 

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Posted by BaltACD on Monday, September 10, 2018 10:30 PM

Euclid
 
BaltACD
I have never heard of the NTSB trying to set the stage for 'personal sympathy' for anyone in an investigation. 

I don't think they do it that often. 

Like not at all.

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

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Posted by Euclid on Tuesday, September 11, 2018 7:23 AM

BaltACD
 
Euclid
 
BaltACD
I have never heard of the NTSB trying to set the stage for 'personal sympathy' for anyone in an investigation. 

I don't think they do it that often. 

 

Like not at all.

 

I doubt that the NTSB has ever reported that they have done that.

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Posted by BaltACD on Tuesday, September 11, 2018 8:13 AM

Euclid
 
BaltACD
 
Euclid 
BaltACD
I have never heard of the NTSB trying to set the stage for 'personal sympathy' for anyone in an investigation. 

I don't think they do it that often.  

Like not at all. 

I doubt that the NTSB has ever reported that they have done that.

Read NTSB reports - a bunch of them, not just railroad investigations, delve into Marine and Air investigations as well.  Duh!

Never too old to have a happy childhood!

              

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Posted by 243129 on Tuesday, September 11, 2018 8:18 AM

BaltACD
Read NTSB reports - a bunch of them, not just railroad investigations, delve into Marine and Air investigations as well. Duh!

im·pe·ri·ous
ˌimˈpirēəs/
adjective
adjective: imperious
assuming power or authority without justification; arrogant and domineering.
"his imperious demands"
synonyms: peremptory, high-handed, commanding, imperial, overbearing, overweening, domineering, authoritarian, dictatorial, autocratic, authoritative, lordly, assertive, bossy, arrogant, haughty, presumptuous;
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Posted by Backshop on Tuesday, September 11, 2018 8:40 AM

Sometimes the NTSB can rule out other causes and narrow it to one.  Other times they can't.  Then, they list the most likely possibilities.  They can't get inside the engineer's head because they don't have a "black box" installed.  I've never known them to pull punches in airliner crashes.

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Posted by Euclid on Tuesday, September 11, 2018 8:49 AM

BaltACD
 
Euclid
 
BaltACD
 
Euclid 
BaltACD
I have never heard of the NTSB trying to set the stage for 'personal sympathy' for anyone in an investigation. 

I don't think they do it that often.  

Like not at all. 

I doubt that the NTSB has ever reported that they have done that.

 

Read NTSB reports - a bunch of them, not just railroad investigations, delve into Marine and Air investigations as well.  Duh!

 

I said I doubt that the NTSB has ever reported that they have set the stage for personal sympathy.  What are you saying?

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Posted by Backshop on Tuesday, September 11, 2018 9:19 AM

He's saying that the NTSB doesn't work that way.  They report the facts and try to come to the most likely conclusion(s).  They don't skew their reports either way for sympathy.  As Sgt Friday would say "just the facts, ma'am".

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Posted by Euclid on Tuesday, September 11, 2018 9:40 AM

Backshop

He's saying that the NTSB doesn't work that way.  They report the facts and try to come to the most likely conclusion(s).  They don't skew their reports either way for sympathy.  As Sgt Friday would say "just the facts, ma'am".

 

In my opinion, they sometimes do slant their conclusions.  They don't do it by skewing the facts.  But some of their statemens in their reports are opinions and not facts.  Certainly the statement that Bostian lost situational awareness due to hearing the radio call from the rocked train is not a fact.  It is only a proability stated as their opinion.  Probabilities may or may not be factual.  Sgt. Friday makes my point.

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Posted by n012944 on Tuesday, September 11, 2018 3:13 PM

243129

 

 
BaltACD
Read NTSB reports - a bunch of them, not just railroad investigations, delve into Marine and Air investigations as well. Duh!

 

im·pe·ri·ous
ˌimˈpirēəs/
adjective
adjective: imperious
assuming power or authority without justification; arrogant and domineering.
"his imperious demands"
synonyms: peremptory, high-handed, commanding, imperial, overbearing, overweening, domineering, authoritarian, dictatorial, autocratic, authoritative, lordly, assertive, bossy, arrogant, haughty, presumptuous;
 

 

Good to see that Joe is becoming self aware.

An "expensive model collector"

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Posted by BaltACD on Tuesday, September 11, 2018 3:30 PM

n012944
 
243129
 
BaltACD
Read NTSB reports - a bunch of them, not just railroad investigations, delve into Marine and Air investigations as well. Duh! 
im·pe·ri·ous
ˌimˈpirēəs/
adjective
adjective: imperious
assuming power or authority without justification; arrogant and domineering.
"his imperious demands"
synonyms: peremptory, high-handed, commanding, imperial, overbearing, overweening, domineering, authoritarian, dictatorial, autocratic, authoritative, lordly, assertive, bossy, arrogant, haughty, presumptuous;
 Good to see that Joe is becoming self aware.

Duh! More Duff Beer!

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Posted by SD70Dude on Tuesday, September 11, 2018 4:16 PM

BaltACD

Duh! More Duff Beer!

Don't you mean "d'oh!"!

That's in the dictionary too:

https://web.archive.org/web/20021203092605/http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/1387335.stm

Greetings from Alberta

-an Articulate Malcontent

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Posted by 243129 on Thursday, September 13, 2018 1:14 PM

More taradiddle. This time from north of the border.

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