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The future of passenger travel

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The future of passenger travel
Posted by A McIntosh on Tuesday, December 3, 2013 9:19 AM

 Two items caught my eye recently that got me to thinking about how we will travel 20or so years from now.

One of them is the self driving car that Google is helping to develop. The potential to reduce traffic deaths

is quite apparent. It could also ease roadway congestion if deployed properly by convoying rush hour traffic.

the other potential development is the  hyperloop  idea that Elon Musk has promoted. At the speeds that

it would travel, it could replace domestic air travel the way air travel replaced long distance train travel.

So, am I totally off base, or is there some validity to this? Remember, people scoffed at air travel back

when.

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Posted by carnej1 on Tuesday, December 3, 2013 11:48 AM

IMHO, the self driving car technology will become commonplace but incrementally. over a long period of time because of the fact that it will have to use the same ROW as conventional vehicles.

 The major problem with hyperloop i the enormous capital required to get even a short system up and running. Similar systems have been promoted over the last half century but they never seem to get off the drawing board for lack of funding..

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Posted by oltmannd on Tuesday, December 3, 2013 2:37 PM

The self-driving car is the one that's really interesting.  I can see a future when you'll have to make a reservation for a slot on an interstate to make an intercity trip and you'll have to have a self-driving car so that capacity and safety can be maintained.  The highway will be intelligent, too.  It'll be able to slot you in a few feet from the car ahead.  You'll be moving in a "pack" - like a train w/o couplers.  This is technology they've messed with out in SouCal.

Hyper loop?  I suspect the details will kill this for quite a while.  There have been proposals for linear induction motor "space cannons" for decades and decades and we don't have one of those yet, either.  

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Posted by BaltACD on Tuesday, December 3, 2013 7:18 PM

Self driving cars are devices built by man (and man's machines) - man is falible and as much as we hate to admit it - there will be crashes with self driving cars - The big question is who and how the vehicles will be insured and how the responsiblity for whatever crashes happen will be adjudicated through the courts.  Who will be the deep pockets for failure?

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Posted by V.Payne on Tuesday, December 3, 2013 8:27 PM

I agree, we just recently finished the legal battles and recalls over the supposed electronic throttle problems in cars. That was a fairly simple flash based lookup table technology. Can you imagine the " theories " advanced by the deceased lawyers for a system of inertial equations and pattern recognition.  You just have to get a jury to go along.

If accident risk was dropped, you would still have the possibility of animals, other drivers, insurance scammers, and mechanical failures. If you built a new series of lanes, who would pay for them? All told if you wanted to cover the costs for either option, insurance or upgraded infrastructure, it would maybe be $0.20 a mile or so extra atop $0.25 variable or $0.56 full driving cost.

The hyperloop makes no sense...

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Posted by oltmannd on Wednesday, December 4, 2013 6:13 AM

V.Payne

I agree, we just recently finished the legal battles and recalls over the supposed electronic throttle problems in cars. That was a fairly simple flash based lookup table technology. Can you imagine the " theories " advanced by the deceased lawyers for a system of inertial equations and pattern recognition.  You just have to get a jury to go along.

If accident risk was dropped, you would still have the possibility of animals, other drivers, insurance scammers, and mechanical failures. If you built a new series of lanes, who would pay for them? All told if you wanted to cover the costs for either option, insurance or upgraded infrastructure, it would maybe be $0.20 a mile or so extra atop $0.25 variable or $0.56 full driving cost.

All good points, but we have most of this risk now (animals, mechanical failure, weather, etc.) plus driver error and inattentiveness.   I figure existing lanes will get converted to "smart" highway/vehicle systems because of capacity demand and the lack of funds to add any lanes.

We are already seeing some of the building blocks in cars such as adaptive cruise control, lane change warning, reactive braking, tire pressure monitoring, et. al.  We are seeing some smart highway  tech, too, such as variable tolling based on conditions and traffic/speed monitoring.  

I think intelligent highways/vehicle systems can grow organically and are a way to wring more capacity out of existing infrastructure.  I don't think this will effect the future of rail passenger travel one bit.  After all, is the passenger train in any worse position now than it was in 1971 when automobiles were considerably cruder and took twice as much fuel to go a mile and before airfare dropped to Greyhound fare levels?

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Posted by PNWRMNM on Wednesday, December 4, 2013 8:06 AM

V.Payne

Can you imagine the " theories " advanced by the deceased lawyers for a system of inertial equations and pattern recognition.  You just have to get a jury to go along.

I can not imagine even a coven of deceased lawyers advancing any theories.

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Posted by Paul Milenkovic on Wednesday, December 4, 2013 9:43 AM

OK, OK, I didn't use the Amtrak Michigan service, I drove.  About 50 dollars in gasoline and 15 dollars in tolls each way to transport 2 people.  Madison, WI to Ann Arbor, MI in 7 and a half hours including one stop, driving legal speeds and including one stretch of tollroad road construction.

There is that stretch of I-90/Indiana tollroad paralleling the South Shore Line with an itty bitty sign "High crash-rate highway -- speed enforcement is strict."  After that sign there was billboard after billboard of adds for "personal injury" attorneys.  Hmmm, maybe the "free market" was doing a better job of warning drivers than the State of Indiana.

The deal is that Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan have "split speed limits" -- in Michigan, trucks have a 60 MPH limit, that the trucks by and large observed with maybe only a couple of miles per hour over, and that to "maintain momentum" to get up hills.  The auto speed limit is 70, but there is this thing called a "Michigan train", of a line of cars bumper-to-bumper NASCAR style doing 80 in the left lane.  This wide difference in speed is much like the German Autobahn.  In 'Sconsin, the limit is 65 for everyone, and even though you have people passing you when you are doing the legal 65, it seems so much more gentle, orderly, and safer.  I guess "our" German drivers are more conscientious than the ones in the Bundesrepublik.

 

If GM "killed the electric car", what am I doing standing next to an EV-1, a half a block from the WSOR tracks?

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Posted by jclass on Wednesday, December 4, 2013 5:25 PM

Paul,

Maybe Sconsin has a relict memory of its own pre-55mph split speed limits.  Others have to relearn what they've forgotten?

(Also, do you remember the "reflectorized" day/night speed limit signs of the late 60's that Wi. had?) 

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Posted by jclass on Wednesday, December 4, 2013 6:29 PM

I don't know if I would underestimate Elon Musk.  He's been able to identify and fill gaping disparities between possibility and reality.  Look at yesterday's launch of his Space X rocket; transporting a $100 million+ satellite to deep orbit.  And raising the ground clearance of all Tesla's with a change in computer code to better avoid road debris.  Who's to say he can't game change other ways of transport.  I just wonder if it would be better if the hyperloop were developed for freight rather than people movement.  One "dogbone loop" could serve almost the entire USA and Canada.  The impact on land use would be enormous. 

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Posted by dakotafred on Wednesday, December 4, 2013 7:51 PM

Whoa -- does anybody really want to surrender control of his vehicle to an outside agency?

After all, the auto is all about being one's own boss, traveling on one's own schedule, wherever you want. The whole thing is about owner independence.

Give all this up for the illusion of perfect safety? I think not -- unless compelled by more of the big government whose competence is suspect, to say the least.

Most Americans are vain enough to think they are good drivers and their car has the best imaginable pilot. Obviously, they all cannot be right. But the sentiment is very American and not to be discouraged, in my opinion.

Also, practically: How would you like to be on remote control, when a deer jumped out of the ditch in front of you? Or -- to stretch a point -- when you saw a sniper taking potshots at the cars ahead of you from the next overpass?

Face it -- remote control is antithetical to the whole notion of AUTOmobility. Fie on it. 

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Posted by John WR on Wednesday, December 4, 2013 8:34 PM

I'm not quite sure of the relationship between self driving travel and trains.  But I do confess that I have a personal interest here.  A few years ago while walking across a street in the crosswalk with the pedestrian walk signal I was hit by a car.  That has left me with a brain injury and a shoulder injury and in fact I am lucky I am here to write this post.  Of course, the person who hit me continues to have the convenience and independence of driving her car where ever and when ever she wants too.  

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Posted by daveklepper on Thursday, December 5, 2013 3:13 AM

Where there migating circumstances that allowed her to continue to drive?

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Posted by Phoebe Vet on Thursday, December 5, 2013 11:58 AM

This post sounds like just an excuse to take an anti big government political shot.

When is the last time you came across a sniper taking pot shots at passing cars from an overpass?  Car deer accidents are minor sheet metal benders unless you take some kind of violet evasive action and lose control of your vehicle.

The car will never completely eliminate driver control.  There will always be a need to drive to someplace the automation cannot handle and they will always maintain an emergency over ride.  Airplanes have had full authority autopilots for many years.  Many subway systems run primarily automated.  There has been no effort to eliminate the crews.

When you add to the argument the life expectancy of well built automobiles, If they introduce autopilots in 2015 it would be 20 years before you would HAVE to buy one.

The ability to run cars faster and closer together and to run them through intersections without having to stop for traffic signals far outweighs your perception of an assault on your freedom.  Consumers would buy them in a heartbeat and brag about having the first one in the neighborhood.

Besides, then you could sit there and text to your heart's content, or watch TV, or cruise the Trains forum.

Dave

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Posted by D.Carleton on Thursday, December 5, 2013 12:54 PM

Phoebe Vet

Car deer accidents are minor sheet metal benders unless you take some kind of violet evasive action and lose control of your vehicle.

Just for the record, the one time (so far) when I did hit a deer with my pickup truck on the Palisades Parkway I did maintain full control of said truck and it was anything but "minor." Even the troopers who responded were impressed.

That said, here is the reality: The demand for gasoline is in decline and has been for six years. Vehicle miles driven are down for the same period. A couple of years ago it was realized this was a trend and no mere blip. Fewer miles driven and fewer taxes collected means less resources for maintaining the status quo. There are numerous reasons for this but the main point is that we are in a new era of transportation. The American highway network is at the dawn of the same era the railroads were in about a hundred years ago: the age of deferred investment. Never mind the letter grade the infrastructure hawks give every year, you ain't seen nothing yet. In short, if there is no money to maintain the system as is then where is the money going to come from to install/maintain anything beyond that?

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Posted by John WR on Thursday, December 5, 2013 4:11 PM

I have no idea about why she continues to drive, Dave.  I have the police report from my accident and I know she got a ticket but the disposition of the case is private information and I have no access to it.   

I have no recollection of the accident itself and the neurologist who treated me says this is typical in an accident that involves brain trauma.  I remember stepping away from the sidewalk.  There was a curb cut for people with disabilities and I remember the pedestrian walk signal and beginning to walk across the street.  The next thing I heard was voices of people positioning me to put me through a CT scan machine at the hopsptal.  What I report about the accident is information I learned from the police report.   

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Posted by Ulrich on Thursday, December 5, 2013 4:22 PM

The self drive car is still a long way off in my opinion. The act of driving currently requires the ability to make decisions and to think, and to use one's judgement. No machine that I'm aware of can do that at present. Sure a machine can be built for cruise control (for example), but the driver is still required to make that crucial decision, should I turn the cruise control on now?

Calculators and computers didn't replace engineers either. Automated phone systems didn't replace receptionists, and the plethora of computer inspired time management systems didn't replace the personal assistant. Autopilots haven't replaced  pilots either, although planes that can takeoff and land without a pilot onboard have been around for awhile.

Cars will require drivers for quite some time, but if you don't like driving there's always the bus or the train.  

 

 

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Posted by John WR on Thursday, December 5, 2013 5:11 PM

Ulrich
The self drive car is still a long way off in my opinion. The act of driving currently requires the ability to make decisions and to think, and to use one's judgement. No machine that I'm aware of can do that at present.

Ulrich,

I sure hope you are right but I am not sure.  Consider, for example, applying for benefits under the Affordable Care Act.  The only way to do it is to go on line.  But what of the people who suffer from dementia or mental retardation or other neurological disorders?  And what of the people who make a mistake?  There is no human intervention to help them; they are just out of luck.  

If self drive vehicles were possible I suspect transit agencies would be the first to use them because then they would not need bus drivers.  That would be a lot cheaper but there could be problems.  

My transit agency, New Jersey Transit, uses no ticket agents at any of its suburban stations.  Instead there are ticket vending machines (TVM's).  On the whole they work very well but there is one flaw:  On a bright day it is absolutely impossible to read the screen unless NJT encloses the machine in a booth to limit the light.  It does that at Princeton Junction but I have never seen a TVM similarly enclosed any place else.  If, because you cannot read the screen, there is a $5 surcharge to buy a ticket on the train. And if you are on a light rail train there is a fine of $75.  All because NJT provides TVM's that are unusable at times and just plain doesn't care about it.  

John

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Posted by V.Payne on Thursday, December 5, 2013 8:08 PM

Correct, the current automated automobile systems I am aware of just give you a chime or something and put the blinker on if the system cannot merge safely. For most of the Interstate system that congested condition has become the norm with the volume out there. SO the driver has to take over to accept the less than safe following distance at their own risk. BUT the problem is by the time that has happened you are down the merge lane quite a bit and are trying to get up to speed on the situation quickly. Did I mention insurance scamers or just kids out looking to harass someone by pulling in front of the robot car and slowing down repeatedly or boxing it in.

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Posted by A McIntosh on Friday, December 6, 2013 8:51 AM

To all:

Thank you for your responses to my post. One problem with automated driving is that of hackers wreaking havoc with the system. Mechanical failures present another issue as many of you have pointed out. Since I live and work in an area where poverty rate is fairly high, these cars would be quite out of reach for many financially, as well as the cost to maintain them, which is why such a system may not develop in my lifetime. I feel that this system, if it is ever fully developed, would not have much of an impact on passenger rail because trains tend to go from city center to city center where parking is at a premium.

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Posted by Phoebe Vet on Friday, December 6, 2013 9:37 AM

While working prototypes are among us, the implementation of the required infrastructure is a long way off.  I don't think anyone among us thinks they will be buying one of these anytime soon.

The arguments here are about the viability of the concept.  I believe it will eventually be implemented, but I doubt I will be here when it is.  It is more apt to be a mass transit system than private ownership.  An evolution of the taxi.

Dave

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Posted by dakotafred on Friday, December 6, 2013 9:50 AM

Phoebe Vet

When is the last time you came across a sniper taking pot shots at passing cars from an overpass?  Car deer accidents are minor sheet metal benders unless you take some kind of violet evasive action and lose control of your vehicle.

OK, the sniper who sticks out in my mind goes all the way back to 2003, amounting to one nutcase but 24 separate incidents in and around Columbus, O.,  before they caught up with the guy.

The government says a quarter-million private vehicle-"animal" collisions a year, and a private study c. 200 human deaths from just the deer accidents, per Wikipedia. I will say, if the deer comes through your windshield, you will need a body shop for more than just your car.

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Posted by Phoebe Vet on Friday, December 6, 2013 10:16 AM

One in the last ten years, and he was not on an overpass, he was shooting through a hole in a closed car trunk.  He was so well hidden that none of his victims or witnesses had any idea from where the shots came.

I will give you a partial point on that.  During truck strikes, subhuman union members sometimes shoot at or drop concrete blocks on trucks that have chosen not to participate in the work stoppage.  They are not going to shoot at cars.

I have also investigated enough "foreign object thrown from an overpass" incidents to know that you are not going to see it in time to avoid it.

I have investigated a great many car deer collisions. The only fatal one was a motorcycle and the only serious injury was a woman who swerved to miss the deer and hit a tree.  I have seen a deer that tried to jump the car and was hit by the windshield.  It broke the windshield but did not penetrate it.  I think you are under estimating the strength of safety glass.  I have investigated a collision with a cow.  Much more automobile damage, but totally survivable by the occupant.  The only fatalities I have seen from an animal collision involved a horse, and a moose.  Both have long spindly legs and so drop about 1200 pounds on the windshield area.  They don't come through the windshield, they crush the forward section of the roof.  I suspect the radar collision system of the car, which is already available in some models, would be better at spotting the impending animal collision than you would be.

Now let's get back to talking about trains.

Dave

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Posted by schlimm on Friday, December 6, 2013 10:49 AM

Phoebe Vet

One in the last ten years, and he was not on an overpass, he was shooting through a hole in a closed car trunk.  He was so well hidden that none of his victims or witnesses had any idea from where the shots came.

I will give you a partial point on that.  During truck strikes, subhuman union members sometimes shoot at or drop concrete blocks on trucks that have chosen not to participate in the work stoppage.  They are not going to shoot at cars.

I have also investigated enough "foreign object thrown from an overpass" incidents to know that you are not going to see it in time to avoid it.

I have investigated a great many car deer collisions. The only fatal one was a motorcycle and the only serious injury was a woman who swerved to miss the deer and hit a tree.  I have seen a deer that tried to jump the car and was hit by the windshield.  It broke the windshield but did not penetrate it.  I think you are under estimating the strength of safety glass.  I have investigated a collision with a cow.  Much more automobile damage, but totally survivable by the occupant.  The only fatalities I have seen from an animal collision involved a horse, and a moose.  Both have long spindly legs and so drop about 1200 pounds on the windshield area.  They don't come through the windshield, they crush the forward section of the roof.  I suspect the radar collision system of the car, which is already available in some models, would be better at spotting the impending animal collision than you would be.

Now let's get back to talking about trains.

I think your earlier comment about his usual anti-government agenda was accurate, but then there are so many forum posters with those views.

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Posted by Paul Milenkovic on Friday, December 6, 2013 10:57 AM

John WR

 Consider, for example, applying for benefits under the Affordable Care Act.  The only way to do it is to go on line.  But what of the people who suffer from dementia or mental retardation or other neurological disorders?  And what of the people who make a mistake?  There is no human intervention to help them; they are just out of luck.  

Mr. John WR.

In addition to Healthcare.gov, the President of the United States has told the American people on multiple occasions that person seeking a healthcare plan under the Affordable Care Act can call a toll-free telephone number.  Furthermore, there are persons designated as Navigators who can assist you in getting healthcare in you don't have Internet access.  Finally, there are some private insurance companies who are also offering help, much like Progressive claims they will help you shop competitors for a better auto insurance rate.

I am not saying this process is going smoothly -- there have been conflicting reports on whether Healthcare.gov has gotten "fixed" or whether it is still difficult to sign up for health care.  And I know my remarks are way off topic and I may get my "heels locked down" for getting "political" around here.

But the record needs to be set straight regarding the need to have Internet and be able to use Internet to get healthcare because this is too important an issue for a casual remark.

So yes, just like "they will eventually figure out Healthcare.gov and get it running smoothly", I believe that Google and others will eventually figure out if not self driving cars, cars with a large level of driver assist, and this will allow more people along with people with disabilities to be on the road safely.  And this will figure into the equation regarding the proper transportation market role for trains.

If GM "killed the electric car", what am I doing standing next to an EV-1, a half a block from the WSOR tracks?

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Posted by carnej1 on Friday, December 6, 2013 11:51 AM

dakotafred

Whoa -- does anybody really want to surrender control of his vehicle to an outside agency?

After all, the auto is all about being one's own boss, traveling on one's own schedule, wherever you want. The whole thing is about owner independence.

Give all this up for the illusion of perfect safety? I think not -- unless compelled by more of the big government whose competence is suspect, to say the least.

Most Americans are vain enough to think they are good drivers and their car has the best imaginable pilot. Obviously, they all cannot be right. But the sentiment is very American and not to be discouraged, in my opinion.

Also, practically: How would you like to be on remote control, when a deer jumped out of the ditch in front of you? Or -- to stretch a point -- when you saw a sniper taking potshots at the cars ahead of you from the next overpass?

Face it -- remote control is antithetical to the whole notion of AUTOmobility. Fie on it. 

If this was the 1830's you'd probably find folks making the same complaint about rail travel vs. horses (or walking)....( I don't use "smileys" but If I did, I'd put one here)

BTW, you do realize that the Google system is not  a form of "Remote Control" right? The vehicle navigates itself, there is not a central computer in a building somewhere operating it via a data-link.

Frankly the big obstacle to any near future large scale shift to self -driving automobiles is the liability issues, as others on the thread have pointed out

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Posted by jclass on Friday, December 6, 2013 1:18 PM

Here's a timely report - includes Volvo's "Road trains".  And take a look at Chevy's EN-V.

http://t.autos.msn.com/car-tech/cars-that-drive-better-than-you-do-1

http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=Volvo+road+train+concept&FORM=msnspa

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Posted by schlimm on Friday, December 6, 2013 2:36 PM

+2

The healthcare situation already has had enough misinformation surrounding it without these forums adding to it.  Thanks, Paul.

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Posted by dakotafred on Friday, December 6, 2013 5:16 PM

schlimm


I think your earlier comment about his usual anti-government agenda was accurate, but then there are so many forum posters with those views.


 
And so many of you other posters sensitive to "agendas" that are nothing more than views differing from your own.
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Posted by D.Carleton on Friday, December 6, 2013 6:08 PM

dakotafred

schlimm

I think your earlier comment about his usual anti-government agenda was accurate, but then there are so many forum posters with those views.

 
And so many of you other posters sensitive to "agendas" that are nothing more than views differing from your own.

 
If reality had an "agenda" could we stop it?

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