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Farmers complain about BNSF rates to STB

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Posted by Anonymous on Saturday, December 3, 2005 12:50 PM
Remember, let the free market determine rates via head to head competition among railroad service providers, and the farmers/utilities/manufacturers/producers will have no reason to complain to the feds.

It's as simple as that.
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Posted by Anonymous on Saturday, December 3, 2005 12:50 AM
QUOTE: Yup.


lol.
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Posted by MichaelSol on Friday, December 2, 2005 11:51 PM
Yup.

best regards, Michael Sol
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Posted by Anonymous on Friday, December 2, 2005 10:34 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by MichaelSol

Milwaukee Road total Federal Government transfers, 1977-1984:
$102,951,000.

Illinois Central Gulf total Federal Government transfers 1977-1987:
$198,145,000.

ICG received 192% more direct federal subsidy than Milwaukee Road.



This sentence should say, "ICG received 92% more than Milwaukee Road," even though the ICG figure is 192% of the Milwaukee figure.

Accuracy gentlemen.



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Posted by arbfbe on Wednesday, November 23, 2005 1:09 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by MP173

I have always maintained that if I were negotiating the Montana wheat rates (for the farmers), I would use a method of tying that freight into a much larger pool of traffic. Large agricultural concerns such as Cargil, ADM, etc possibly have, or should have much favorable rates, based on mileage.

Darn, I wish I had gotten my MBA!

ed



Well, negotiating here is the operant wording. In Montana, there is no negotiation of the rates with the farmers. BNSF sets the rate and the farmers can either take it or leave it. End of negotiations. Yes, Cargill, Conagra and Pillsbury have better rates than what the independent or co-operative elevator operators have.
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Posted by MichaelSol on Wednesday, November 23, 2005 11:26 AM
QUOTE: Originally posted by greyhounds

QUOTE: Originally posted by MichaelSol

QUOTE: Originally posted by greyhounds
The Milwaukee was a basket case that went broke. Extending their pricing strategy to the rest of the world through assumption is quite a stretch.

ICC Chairman Daniel K. O'Neal testified to the US Senate in January, 1978 that there were four railroad "basket cases," the Rock Island, the Illinois Central Gulf, The Milwaukee Road and the North Western, but that the other railroads were not far behind.

When Milwaukee petitioned for bankruptcy, it had something like $10 million cash on hand and $38 million accoounts payable. When Stanley Hillman left ICG, it had 0 in the cash drawer and $100 million in accounts payable outstanding. Interestingly, as of December, 1977, the Milwaukee Road was not technically bankrupt, and ICG technically was.

Best regards, Michael Sol


Well, my paychecks were good. Neat trick with zero cash.
...
You might be insolvent, might not be able to pay your bills, but you can't be bankrupt until "The Man" says so. As I said, the ICG never missed a payroll and never went to bankruptcy court. So I guess "technically" we were a going concern.
...
But we never missed a payroll and, unlike the Milwaukee Road, we never tucked our tails between our legs and went to court for protection from our creditors.

Well, considering that this comment is from the same source as the following

QUOTE: QUOTE: Originally posted by greyhounds
And I'm telling you, .... by the amount of subsidies going to the farmers, and by the amount of blaming someone else ....

From what I've read here, the BNSF could haul that wheat for free and those farmers would still need to take confiscated money (a subsidy) from the rest of us.

Milwaukee Road total Federal Government transfers, 1977-1984:
$102,951,000.

Illinois Central Gulf total Federal Government transfers 1977-1987:
$198,145,000.

ICG received 192% more direct federal subsidy than Milwaukee Road. During those years, ICG lost $271,094,000, while Milwaukee Road lost $349,467,000. Despite losing more money than ICG, Milwaukee Road was more solvent and able to cover its losses out of its own resources to a much greater degree than ICG, while ICG was more insolvent and was forced to rely much more heavily on government subsidies and handouts to cover its losses than Milwaukee Road.

Indeed, your paychecks did continue, because you were benefitting from "confiscated money (a subsidy) from the rest of us."

Indeed, Greyhounds, you personally benefitted more than any Milwaukee Road employee from taking "confiscated" money, and more so than any Montana farmer.

Naturally, I see no irony in your allegations, only what I have often suspected.

Best regards,
Michael Sol
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Posted by greyhounds on Thursday, November 17, 2005 6:26 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by MichaelSol

QUOTE: Originally posted by MP173

Supply and demand is quite simple in the case of Montana.

There is a demand for transportation services (grain) and very little supply (rail service). Perhaps I put it into too simple of terms to understand, but when there is an abundance of competition (supply of services) the prices will find equilibrium by falling. Happens all the time.

"Supply" and "competition", for good reasons, are not the same word.
QUOTE: I would like an explanation, tho on the difference between regulated and unregulated business.

Well, this is getting ridiculous. The definition you offer makes no allowance for regulated rates prior to Staggers, and argues that the process of rate making is exactly the same as post-Staggers.

A statistical analysis shows a considerable difference in the effect of mileage on the rate under regulation as compared to deregulation. Why that might have become a controversial observation to a couple of individuals is a mystery I care little about since the facts speak for themselves.

However, since you define the process of rate-making as independent of regulation, there is no point in continuing the conversation. I have no reason based on other exchanges to think you actually believe that, but since you are now offering the idea that rate deregulation had no effect on how rates are actually set, the topic need not include me any more, since I have nothing to offer on that unusual premise.

Best regards, Michael Sol


Well the "statistical analysis" would likely show such a difference. There's no reason, other that stupid, ignorant, government regulaton, to base a freight rate on mileage. There are a lot of other factors to be considered.

Staggers made it easier to "comply with the market", which you have to do, rather than "comply with the regulations", which have no relavance to reality.

Under "Reg" I had Crown Zellerbach come in and request a rate for a filter paper move from Bougalousa, LA to Sheybougan, WI. Now this was going to be a truck-rail-truck move. Bougalousa to Jackson, MS via truck, Jackson to Chicago on the train, and delivery to Sheybougan via another truck. It took months. I had to find a trucker that would do the pickup and negotiate a division of revenue with him. Then I had to find another trucker who would do the Wisconsin run, and strike a deal with him. I finnally got it done. I had to stick the letter documenting the rate in an envelope and send it off the nuts in Washington, DC. They did nothing with it. They had no idea how much revenue we received from the move since they didn't generally bother themselves about "divisions" between carriers.

After "Dereg" I could do it in under a minute. CZ could call and ask. I'd quickly crunch some numbers and say yes or counter with a proposed rate. We could do the trucking ouselves and I didn't have to "Date" trucklines to find a willing partner.

It made things a whole lot better.
"By many measures, the U.S. freight rail system is the safest, most efficient and cost effective in the world." - Federal Railroad Administration, October, 2009. I'm just your average, everyday, uncivilized howling "anti-government" critic of mass government expenditures for "High Speed Rail" in the US. And I'm gosh darn proud of that.
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Posted by MichaelSol on Wednesday, November 16, 2005 11:55 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by MP173

Supply and demand is quite simple in the case of Montana.

There is a demand for transportation services (grain) and very little supply (rail service). Perhaps I put it into too simple of terms to understand, but when there is an abundance of competition (supply of services) the prices will find equilibrium by falling. Happens all the time.

"Supply" and "competition", for good reasons, are not the same word.
QUOTE: I would like an explanation, tho on the difference between regulated and unregulated business.

Well, this is getting ridiculous. The definition you offer makes no allowance for regulated rates prior to Staggers, and argues that the process of rate making is exactly the same as post-Staggers.

A statistical analysis shows a considerable difference in the effect of mileage on the rate under regulation as compared to deregulation. Why that might have become a controversial observation to a couple of individuals is a mystery I care little about since the facts speak for themselves.

However, since you define the process of rate-making as independent of regulation, there is no point in continuing the conversation. I have no reason based on other exchanges to think you actually believe that, but since you are now offering the idea that rate deregulation had no effect on how rates are actually set, the topic need not include me any more, since I have nothing to offer on that unusual premise.

Best regards, Michael Sol
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Posted by MichaelSol on Wednesday, November 16, 2005 11:35 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by greyhounds
Well, this one goes in my book, along with his contention that The Railroad (Milwaukee Road) went broke because it had too much business.

So, supply and demand has nothing to do with prices. You could get the Nobel Prize in Economics if you could actually show that.

Well, these are just little "cute" sessions for you aren' they?

1) Management experts point out that as many businesses fail from being unable to handle business growth, as from lack of business. This occurs when actual growth exceeds self sustainable growth and the company is unable to finance the additional growth. Oddly enough, the standard business model where this occurs almost exactly describes the Milwaukee Road during a period when American Class I's uniformly had difficulty finding outside financing. If the actual growth equals or is less than the SSG, there is little risk of failure due to lack of outside financing. Pretty standard finance stuff.

2) Do you actually know Milwaukee's business, and the revenue and carloadings, 1970-1977? Or just shooting off your mouth as usual on something that you clearly don't know anything about? I have sitting here the Milwaukee Road Station Revenue and Carloading Reports for those years. Want to challenge what they contain? Or is this another hot air attack?

3) Congestion. Lengthened cycle times. Too much demand. Not enough capacity (supply). Prices continue to go down for 20 years. Doesn't matter how you define "competition" -- that's a different concept than "supply." I understand supply and demand just fine. It's the way you define it, contrary to how any economist would define it, that is just bizarre, Orwellian.

QUOTE: I think you may have made another "typo". Being bankrupt is a legal condition, not a financial condition. You're not bankrupt until a judge says you're bankrupt.

4) Bankruptcy. And the last time you appeared in a federal court in a bankruptcy matter? Your professional training and qualification to be defining bankruptcy for anybody? Never, right? Nothing, right? It's a legal term -- how many years of legal training and practice? How many creditors have you represented? How many debtors have you represented? Which railroad bankruptcy proceedings were you involved in? You are admitted to practice in the Northern District or Southern District of Illinois? Have you litigated to the Circuit Court level on bankruptcy matters?

Want to show me and this Forum the place in any of Federal Judge Thomas McMillen's orders where he actually declares the Milwaukee Road "bankrupt"?

I'll wait.

Best regards, Michael Sol




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Posted by MP173 on Wednesday, November 16, 2005 9:13 PM
Supply and demand is quite simple in the case of Montana.

There is a demand for transportation services (grain) and very little supply (rail service). Perhaps I put it into too simple of terms to understand, but when there is an abundance of competition (supply of services) the prices will find equilibrium by falling. Happens all the time.

It happens everytime Southwest Airlines opens a new market. It happens every time a drug goes generic.

As far as getting a rise out of you...dont think so. I simply responded to your prior statement. I really dont feel the need to attempt to get under anyone's skin. I would like an explanation, tho on the difference between regulated and unregulated business.

Bob Wilcox....glad you understood what I had to say about the logistics management aspect. After I wrote it and was driving around to customers, I realized that a logistics company would probably be better equipped to handle this rather than an ADM or Cargil. They have their hands full right now.

Wow, imagine UPS Logistics getting ahold of that Montana grain and leveraging it with the high paying intermodal stuff! At the standard 40% of freight savings, someone would be happy at UPS. Of course the folks in Montana would probably be wanting to tax UPS.

I wonder why this hasnt been done yet?

ed
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Posted by Anonymous on Wednesday, November 16, 2005 7:37 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by samfp1943

QUOTE: Originally posted by futuremodal

Yep, just post something about railroad rate gouging, and the ilks will slither up from the cesspool of arrogant idiocy.


Sounds like it must be ilk hunting season in montana, do they use stamps or tags?
Is ilk hunting with howitzers permitted?


Well, you have my permission.[^]
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Posted by greyhounds on Wednesday, November 16, 2005 7:33 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by MichaelSol

QUOTE: Originally posted by MP173

Mileage may be the determining factor for a "rate", but the determining the final "cost" will almost always be based on demand and supply.

Well, these economic platitudes are starting to wear a little thin.

Demand is the greatest where? Supply is the most constricted where?

And the rates are the lowest on those corridors, not the highest.

QUOTE: Originally posted by MP173
...you just realize the necessity to adjust the throttle.

So this explains why rates are lowest where demand is the highest? Well, that is exactly what you are saying. And rates are highest where demand is the lowest because of supply and demand?

I have long been puzzled by these frequent simplistic references to "laws" of supply and demand, because they have made just about zero sense in this context.

The discussion has been about captive and non-captive shippers. The economic fact of life is that supply and demand has nothing to do with it; it is a matter of market share pricing, rather than cost pricing, which leads to plummeting margins for most traffic, especially where demand is the greatest and capacity supply the lowest which is exactly why the railroads are struggling with excessive demand and inadedquate supply -- because they keep lowering the price, not raising it. Except to certain parts of the system where, ironically, there is little congestion and seemingly, lots of supply of train and track capacity.

It does not take an MBA to see that the platitude and the reality are two different things.

Best regards, Michael Sol



Well, this one goes in my book, along with his contention that The Railroad (Milwaukee Road) went broke because it had too much business.

So, supply and demand has nothing to do with prices. You could get the Nobel Prize in Economics if you could actually show that.
"By many measures, the U.S. freight rail system is the safest, most efficient and cost effective in the world." - Federal Railroad Administration, October, 2009. I'm just your average, everyday, uncivilized howling "anti-government" critic of mass government expenditures for "High Speed Rail" in the US. And I'm gosh darn proud of that.
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Posted by bobwilcox on Wednesday, November 16, 2005 7:07 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by greyhounds

QUOTE: Originally posted by MichaelSol

QUOTE: Originally posted by greyhounds
The Milwaukee was a basket case that went broke. Extending their pricing strategy to the rest of the world through assumption is quite a stretch.

ICC Chairman Daniel K. O'Neal testified to the US Senate in January, 1978 that there were four railroad "basket cases," the Rock Island, the Illinois Central Gulf, The Milwaukee Road and the North Western, but that the other railroads were not far behind.

When Milwaukee petitioned for bankruptcy, it had something like $10 million cash on hand and $38 million accoounts payable. When Stanley Hillman left ICG, it had 0 in the cash drawer and $100 million in accounts payable outstanding. Interestingly, as of December, 1977, the Milwaukee Road was not technically bankrupt, and ICG technically was.

Best regards, Michael Sol


Well, my paychecks were good. Neat trick with zero cash.

I think you may have made another "typo". Being bankrupt is a legal condition, not a financial condition. You're not bankrupt until a judge says you're bankrupt.

You might be insolvent, might not be able to pay your bills, bt you can't be bankrupt until "The Man" says so. As I said, the ICG never missed a payroll and never went to bankruptcy court. So I guess "technically" we were a going concern.

Boy we fought it hard. We ran what I considered to be the best intermodal operation in the country. We went head to head with truckers between Chicago and St. Louis. Our longest realistic haul was 900 miles - and there wasn't much of that.

But we never missed a payroll and, unlike the Milwaukee Road, we never tucked our tails between our legs and went to court for protection from our creditors.


The CFO at the C&NW (aka The Best of the Bankrupts) once told us you were not broke untill the banks wouldn't loan you any more money. That never happened to us and later came Employee Ownership, Coal and the UP.
Bob
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Posted by greyhounds on Wednesday, November 16, 2005 7:02 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by MichaelSol

QUOTE: Originally posted by greyhounds
The Milwaukee was a basket case that went broke. Extending their pricing strategy to the rest of the world through assumption is quite a stretch.

ICC Chairman Daniel K. O'Neal testified to the US Senate in January, 1978 that there were four railroad "basket cases," the Rock Island, the Illinois Central Gulf, The Milwaukee Road and the North Western, but that the other railroads were not far behind.

When Milwaukee petitioned for bankruptcy, it had something like $10 million cash on hand and $38 million accoounts payable. When Stanley Hillman left ICG, it had 0 in the cash drawer and $100 million in accounts payable outstanding. Interestingly, as of December, 1977, the Milwaukee Road was not technically bankrupt, and ICG technically was.

Best regards, Michael Sol


Well, my paychecks were good. Neat trick with zero cash.

I think you may have made another "typo". Being bankrupt is a legal condition, not a financial condition. You're not bankrupt until a judge says you're bankrupt.

You might be insolvent, might not be able to pay your bills, but you can't be bankrupt until "The Man" says so. As I said, the ICG never missed a payroll and never went to bankruptcy court. So I guess "technically" we were a going concern.

Boy we fought it hard. We ran what I considered to be the best intermodal operation in the country. We went head to head with truckers between Chicago and St. Louis. Our longest realistic haul was 900 miles - and there wasn't much of that.

But we never missed a payroll and, unlike the Milwaukee Road, we never tucked our tails between our legs and went to court for protection from our creditors.
"By many measures, the U.S. freight rail system is the safest, most efficient and cost effective in the world." - Federal Railroad Administration, October, 2009. I'm just your average, everyday, uncivilized howling "anti-government" critic of mass government expenditures for "High Speed Rail" in the US. And I'm gosh darn proud of that.
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Posted by MichaelSol on Wednesday, November 16, 2005 4:34 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by bobwilcox

CSXT is raising pricessignificantly. The blurg from Train Orders is at http://www.trainorders.com/news/story.php?2900

BNSF, NS and UP should be following.

You're behind on the news.

BNSF already did ... in Montana and North Dakota. We've known that for 25 years.

Best regards, Michael Sol
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Posted by bobwilcox on Wednesday, November 16, 2005 4:21 PM
CSXT is raising pricessignificantly. The blurg from Train Orders is at http://www.trainorders.com/news/story.php?2900

BNSF, NS and UP should be following.
Bob
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Posted by MichaelSol on Wednesday, November 16, 2005 1:25 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by MP173

Mileage may be the determining factor for a "rate", but the determining the final "cost" will almost always be based on demand and supply.

Well, these economic platitudes are starting to wear a little thin.

Demand is the greatest where? Supply is the most constricted where?

And the rates are the lowest on those corridors, not the highest.

QUOTE: Originally posted by MP173
...you just realize the necessity to adjust the throttle.

So this explains why rates are lowest where demand is the highest? Well, that is exactly what you are saying. And rates are highest where demand is the lowest because of supply and demand?

I have long been puzzled by these frequent simplistic references to "laws" of supply and demand, because they have made just about zero sense in this context.

The discussion has been about captive and non-captive shippers. The economic fact of life is that supply and demand has nothing to do with it; it is a matter of market share pricing, rather than cost pricing, which leads to plummeting margins for most traffic, especially where demand is the greatest and capacity supply the lowest which is exactly why the railroads are struggling with excessive demand and inadedquate supply -- because they keep lowering the price, not raising it. Except to certain parts of the system where, ironically, there is little congestion and seemingly, lots of supply of train and track capacity.

It does not take an MBA to see that the platitude and the reality are two different things.

Best regards, Michael Sol
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Posted by samfp1943 on Wednesday, November 16, 2005 12:23 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by futuremodal

Yep, just post something about railroad rate gouging, and the ilks will slither up from the cesspool of arrogant idiocy.


Sounds like it must be ilk hunting season in montana, do they use stamps or tags?
Is ilk hunting with howitzers permitted?

 

 


 

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Posted by MichaelSol on Wednesday, November 16, 2005 11:55 AM
QUOTE: Originally posted by greyhounds
The Milwaukee was a basket case that went broke. Extending their pricing strategy to the rest of the world through assumption is quite a stretch.

ICC Chairman Daniel K. O'Neal testified to the US Senate in January, 1978 that there were four railroad "basket cases," the Rock Island, the Illinois Central Gulf, The Milwaukee Road and the North Western, but that the other railroads were not far behind.

When Milwaukee petitioned for bankruptcy, it had something like $10 million cash on hand and $38 million accoounts payable. When Stanley Hillman left ICG, it had 0 in the cash drawer and $100 million in accounts payable outstanding. Interestingly, as of December, 1977, the Milwaukee Road was not technically bankrupt, and ICG technically was.

Best regards, Michael Sol
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Posted by MichaelSol on Wednesday, November 16, 2005 11:43 AM
QUOTE: Originally posted by MP173

Mileage may be the determining factor for a "rate", but the determining the final "cost" will almost always be based on demand and supply.

Ed, I was very, very clear that unregulated or deregulated rates are poorly correlated with mileage. and I hope this is not an intentional misreading of my comments just to get a rise. Please reread my comments.

I'm not sure that you are seeing the distinction that the discussion related to regulated rates. Hence the specific date, 1979.

If what you say is true for that era, then the Staggers Act was of no particular use at all.

Best regards, Michael Sol
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Posted by bobwilcox on Wednesday, November 16, 2005 11:00 AM
Ed-We were always very concerned about the impact of a local chemical shipper turning over their logistics to someone like UPS. Many large rail shippers have contracted their physical distribution management out to UPS and other firms. They can come to the table with a very large portfolio of business to offer; most of which is competitve with other railroads or motor carries.

Also, in the early days (1980s) of deregulation we would bid on a customers entire package of traffic within North America. The only thing the customer wanted to hear was how much we would charge him to move all of his traffic for three to five years. Other distinctions such as the specific commodity or distance became secondary to this primary issue. I can recall cases where the charge from the TX/LA Gulf Coast to California would be lower than the charge to Alabama.
Bob
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Posted by MP173 on Wednesday, November 16, 2005 8:14 AM
Mileage may be the determining factor for a "rate", but the determining the final "cost" will almost always be based on demand and supply.

You can file all the rates you want, they are starting points for negotiating the final cost. Sometimes, as in Montana or southbound Chicago -NO freight, there is no negotiating. That is traffic imbalance. Happens all the time. Look at airline pricing. It even happens in my field. Got a memo yesterday to the effect that "backlog is very low", take a look at any business out there.

Had I gone and picked up an MBA like some of you I would know if that is elastic or inelastic demand. If you run a business or are in sales you dont need to know the proper name, you just realize the necessity to adjust the throttle.

Seriously, from the LTL days, rates began based on mileage (rate basis which was a form of railroad mileage), but then found the water level mark based on all other factors. Some rate programs I developed did not even factor mileage, but were based on the number of aggregate pickups and deliveries and total tonnage tendered.

Pricing and yield management are very interesting aspects of any transportation company's marketing and are often very much protected within that organization. To say there is no reasoning on a company's pricing is often based on looking at it on a micro economic scale, rather than the big picture.

I have always maintained that if I were negotiating the Montana wheat rates (for the farmers), I would use a method of tying that freight into a much larger pool of traffic. Large agricultural concerns such as Cargil, ADM, etc possibly have, or should have much favorable rates, based on mileage.

Darn, I wish I had gotten my MBA!

ed
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Posted by MichaelSol on Tuesday, November 15, 2005 10:42 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by greyhounds

QUOTE: Originally posted by MichaelSol

QUOTE: Originally posted by greyhounds
I know we took mileage into consideration, but it was part of a mix and it didn't govern our decisions. And we charged less to move freight north than we did south because the demand for northbound freight was less than the demand for southbound freight. Even if the miles were the same, we charged different rates.

On the way to work, I was wondering what on earth this meant. Why look at the price differential on direction, when there are hundreds of price differentials on the same mileage in the same direction, because a railroad hauls different commodities/products at different prices, even over the same distance. Direction has nothing to do with it. There are simply another set of tariffs over the same mileage.

Chicago to New Orelans has/had hundreds of tariffs at different rates for the same mileage. Does that change the statistical relationship between each tariff and the mileage? Not one bit.

The "standard error" is a different statistical measure than correlation (r-squared). The strength of statisitical analysis is to be able to measure a relationship that may in fact have offsets up or down for a variety of reasons, but for which a specific factor is still the controlling factor in setting a rate.

Greyhounds is discussing a situation which would affect the standard error (in large samples, the standard deviation), not the correlation. The standard error has nothing, or at least little, to do with determining whether or not the rates are set by reference to mileage, only whether or not such rate differentials exist -- which is a completely different measure than correlation.

Over very large data sets, a correlation can be very strong, and still have a relatively large standard error, that is, a variety of different rates over the same distance, and a multiple of such distances, all of which ultimately are set by reference to mileage, will yield a statistical analysis that shows exactly that.

Which is exactly what linear regression analysis is supposed to do.

Best regards, Michael Sol


No, I'm not.

I'm talking about the fact that the northbound FAK intermodal charges on the ICG, which I put in, were significantly below the corresponding southbound FAK intermodal charges.

It is clear you do not understand the point that mileage is the primary controlling factor for any rate within the relevant range and that this is statistically provable, whereas your contention has no statistical support which makes it a species of "pretend" economics.

Best regards, Michael Sol
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Posted by MichaelSol on Tuesday, November 15, 2005 10:39 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by greyhounds
But you're trying to extend a waybill study of Milwaukee Road traffic to the rest of the rail network, and that's dubious. The Milwaukee was a basket case that went broke. Extending their pricing strategy to the rest of the world through assumption is quite a stretch.

Oddly, the results of that study are very similar to the regulated rates on the BNSF today. Probably just a coincidence that regulated rates show similar characteristics, at different points in time, on different railroads. Of course, if you are contending that therefore BNSF is also a basket case ...

Best regards, Michael Sol
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Posted by greyhounds on Tuesday, November 15, 2005 6:22 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by MichaelSol

QUOTE: Originally posted by greyhounds
Which regulated tariffs? If you're going to cite a tariff, then name the tariff.

"A" tariff could tell you just about zilch. . A credible linear regression requires as many data points as possible. Which tariff? As many as possible. In this instance, a data set of Milwaukee revenue carloadings including, from actual waybills, distance (from origin and destination) and product.

Statistically, that is the relevant data.

For a linear regression to assess rate/mileage correlation, rate and mileage is extracted from the data set. A citation to a specific tariff is irrelevant at that point because the linear regression doesn't care: it wants actual, real data.

We requested waybill data and that's what we got. Since the purpose of the study was not to determine if Milwaukee waybills matched published tariffs, nor any reason whatsoever to suspect they didn't, there was absolutely no reason whatsoever to be looking for individual tariff numbers in a compilation of thousands of waybills no doubt including hundreds of tariffs.

At that point in time, it was a safe guess that all such rates were regulated and so there was no question that every single combination of price and distance was governed by a regulated rate.

For current pricing on wheat carriage, BNSF Rate Book 4022K was used. Within that rate book are subsets of unregulated and regulated rates, corresponding neatly with competitive and captive shippers.

Best regards, Michael Sol



Well, you said "regulated tariffs". I asked "which tariffs" and now you have a waybill study.

We do agree on something. The existance of a tariff rate means nothing.

But you're trying to extend a waybill study of Milwaukee Road traffic to the rest of the rail network, and that's dubious. The Milwaukee was a basket case that went broke. Extending their pricing strategy to the rest of the world through assumption is quite a stretch.

And always remember, correlation does not mean causation.
"By many measures, the U.S. freight rail system is the safest, most efficient and cost effective in the world." - Federal Railroad Administration, October, 2009. I'm just your average, everyday, uncivilized howling "anti-government" critic of mass government expenditures for "High Speed Rail" in the US. And I'm gosh darn proud of that.
  • Member since
    August 2003
  • From: Antioch, IL
  • 4,371 posts
Posted by greyhounds on Tuesday, November 15, 2005 6:15 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by MichaelSol

QUOTE: Originally posted by greyhounds
I know we took mileage into consideration, but it was part of a mix and it didn't govern our decisions. And we charged less to move freight north than we did south because the demand for northbound freight was less than the demand for southbound freight. Even if the miles were the same, we charged different rates.

On the way to work, I was wondering what on earth this meant. Why look at the price differential on direction, when there are hundreds of price differentials on the same mileage in the same direction, because a railroad hauls different commodities/products at different prices, even over the same distance. Direction has nothing to do with it. There are simply another set of tariffs over the same mileage.

Chicago to New Orelans has/had hundreds of tariffs at different rates for the same mileage. Does that change the statistical relationship between each tariff and the mileage? Not one bit.

The "standard error" is a different statistical measure than correlation (r-squared). The strength of statisitical analysis is to be able to measure a relationship that may in fact have offsets up or down for a variety of reasons, but for which a specific factor is still the controlling factor in setting a rate.

Greyhounds is discussing a situation which would affect the standard error (in large samples, the standard deviation), not the correlation. The standard error has nothing, or at least little, to do with determining whether or not the rates are set by reference to mileage, only whether or not such rate differentials exist -- which is a completely different measure than correlation.

Over very large data sets, a correlation can be very strong, and still have a relatively large standard error, that is, a variety of different rates over the same distance, and a multiple of such distances, all of which ultimately are set by reference to mileage, will yield a statistical analysis that shows exactly that.

Which is exactly what linear regression analysis is supposed to do.

Best regards, Michael Sol


No, I'm not.

I'm talking about the fact that the northbound FAK intermodal charges on the ICG, which I put in, were significantly below the corresponding southbound FAK intermodal charges.

This was because the demand for northbound transportation was less than the demand for southbound transportatiion. We charged a different "Per Mile" rate comming north than we did going south. (They were not "mileage" rates as such, but point to point charges.)

If a potential shipper wanted to negotiate a special commodity rate southbound, we pretty much said "No". If a guy had northbound loads the salesman took him out for a round of golf at the country club, got him tickets to whatever game he wanted to see, and asked him how much he'd be willing to pay. It beat dragging the trailers back north empty with $0 revenue.

But it's the same mileage going north or south, we just charged different rates. This was due to things like supply, demand, competitiion, etc.
"By many measures, the U.S. freight rail system is the safest, most efficient and cost effective in the world." - Federal Railroad Administration, October, 2009. I'm just your average, everyday, uncivilized howling "anti-government" critic of mass government expenditures for "High Speed Rail" in the US. And I'm gosh darn proud of that.
  • Member since
    February 2002
  • 910 posts
Posted by arbfbe on Tuesday, November 15, 2005 11:58 AM
The underlying question remains, how does the BNSF justify charging Montana farmer more $$ to move grain a shorter distance than North Dakota and Minnesota farmers? The crops from the east wil use more fuel, more crews and plug up more terminal facilities than those from Montana. What gives here? The folks in Montana want to know.

It is an interesting note about shipping rates between Chicago and New Orleans and the reverse route. The return charges for the mty grain cars are figured into the loaded rate but what about cotainers from the midwest to the Pacific northwest? The railroad has no containers of their own any more so it is not their problem to balance loads and mtys to keep the equipment where it is going to be needed like they must do with grain cars. The balance component for containers is with the customers. Loads weight more but mtys take the same amount of space on the train. So it would seem there is no benefit to the railroad to charge much less for the mty move and besides, depending upon the time of the year, sometimes it is loads west and mtys east and a few months later it is loads east and mtys west. The railroad does not care about that any more, a box is a box is a box to them. Some are heavier than others but the customer needs to stage them, no longer a railroad pricing problem. They no longer have an incentive to price the move differently in order to give the market an incentive to route the loads and mtys for the benefit of the railroad.
  • Member since
    October 2004
  • 3,190 posts
Posted by MichaelSol on Tuesday, November 15, 2005 10:15 AM
QUOTE: Originally posted by greyhounds
I know we took mileage into consideration, but it was part of a mix and it didn't govern our decisions. And we charged less to move freight north than we did south because the demand for northbound freight was less than the demand for southbound freight. Even if the miles were the same, we charged different rates.

On the way to work, I was wondering what on earth this meant. Why look at the price differential on direction, when there are hundreds of price differentials on the same mileage in the same direction, because a railroad hauls different commodities/products at different prices, even over the same distance. Direction has nothing to do with it. There are simply another set of tariffs over the same mileage.

Chicago to New Orelans has/had hundreds of tariffs at different rates for the same mileage. Does that change the statistical relationship between each tariff and the mileage? Not one bit.

The "standard error" is a different statistical measure than correlation (r-squared). The strength of statisitical analysis is to be able to measure a relationship that may in fact have offsets up or down for a variety of reasons, but for which a specific factor is still the controlling factor in setting a rate.

Greyhounds is discussing a situation which would affect the standard error (in large samples, the standard deviation), not the correlation. The standard error has nothing, or at least little, to do with determining whether or not the rates are set by reference to mileage, only whether or not such rate differentials exist -- which is a completely different measure than correlation.

Over very large data sets, a correlation can be very strong, and still have a relatively large standard error, that is, a variety of different rates over the same distance, and a multiple of such distances, all of which ultimately are set by reference to mileage, will yield a statistical analysis that shows exactly that.

Which is exactly what linear regression analysis is supposed to do.

Best regards, Michael Sol
  • Member since
    October 2004
  • 3,190 posts
Posted by MichaelSol on Monday, November 14, 2005 11:47 PM
QUOTE: Originally posted by greyhounds
Which regulated tariffs? If you're going to cite a tariff, then name the tariff.

"A" tariff could tell you just about zilch. . A credible linear regression requires as many data points as possible. Which tariff? As many as possible. In this instance, a data set of Milwaukee revenue carloadings including, from actual waybills, distance (from origin and destination) and product.

Statistically, that is the relevant data.

For a linear regression to assess rate/mileage correlation, rate and mileage is extracted from the data set. A citation to a specific tariff is irrelevant at that point because the linear regression doesn't care: it wants actual, real data.

We requested waybill data and that's what we got. Since the purpose of the study was not to determine if Milwaukee waybills matched published tariffs, nor any reason whatsoever to suspect they didn't, there was absolutely no reason whatsoever to be looking for individual tariff numbers in a compilation of thousands of waybills no doubt including hundreds of tariffs.

At that point in time, it was a safe guess that all such rates were regulated and so there was no question that every single combination of price and distance was governed by a regulated rate.

For current pricing on wheat carriage, BNSF Rate Book 4022K was used. Within that rate book are subsets of unregulated and regulated rates, corresponding neatly with competitive and captive shippers.

Best regards, Michael Sol

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