tree68If the general populace truly wanted EV's, there would be no need for incentives... Or disincentives for non-EV's.
...but, as with class 8 trucks and locomotive power, having the only option be BEV isn't going to work in a wide range of circumstances -- the reasons Psychot isn't taking his Tesla being examples. The automotive example of choice was the Fisker Karma, which used a comparatively small four-cylinder fuel engine to provide running charge and some acceleration boost to a pure electric drivetrain. This has all the advantages of a typical plug-in hybrid, with tank-limited endurance at any legal highway speed, and can comfortably go anywhere liquid fuel can be brought to pour in its tank.
We hear about increased charge density making BEVs fully competitive with liquid fuel -- the problem being that it makes them even more into time-delay bombs in many sorts of accident or even poor preventive maintenance. And the already-thin rationale about enforced 45-minute stops every 300-odd miles gets thinner when waiting time for those already in the line for those 45-minute charging 'gate slots' starts to multiply. When you have the choice as a driver to use cheaper straight electricity or a reasonable combustion fuel (including, if zero-carbon is a sticking point, hydrogen carrier or ammonia), and emergencies are accommodated other than with enormous roadgoing battery tenders for rapid recharge, you'll have something much closer to what drove the expansion of automobile usage originally.
People tend to forget that the future of personal automobiling between 1915 and America's entry into WW1 was both lightweight and electric -- look up the story of the Edison-Ford collaboration. This was in the age when cyclecars were popular -- the comparison being with largely horse-drawn traffic with horse-drawn vehicle weights -- and so the idea of a 'horseless carriage' powered by Edison nickel-iron batteries was an attractive marketing model. Note that this failed to thrive even as Ford was developing the Rouge plant and making the Model T better and better for less and less money each year.
One might argue that disincentives for driving at all are part of the "political scheme for the future", and there's certainly plenty of evidence that might support that view. But I'd prefer sustaining some of the existing support and aftermarket 'infrastructure' as well as new manufacture and pervasive market penetration.
PsychotBut none of it would happen without demand created by various incentives.
It would happen but not at the same speed that certain groups want.
York1 John
Overmod tree68 If the general populace truly wanted EV's, there would be no need for incentives... Or disincentives for non-EV's. But remember what Markkula taught Jobs: most of the general public don't really 'want' anything, they want what the thing can do and contribute. And when you're leveraging the combustion efficiency of a modern Rankine steam or combined-cycle plant and the synergy of grid electricity, there are inherent benefits for a great many automobile owners... ...but, as with class 8 trucks and locomotive power, having the only option be BEV isn't going to work in a wide range of circumstances -- the reasons Psychot isn't taking his Tesla being examples. The automotive example of choice was the Fisker Karma, which used a comparatively small four-cylinder fuel engine to provide running charge and some acceleration boost to a pure electric drivetrain. This has all the advantages of a typical plug-in hybrid, with tank-limited endurance at any legal highway speed, and can comfortably go anywhere liquid fuel can be brought to pour in its tank. We hear about increased charge density making BEVs fully competitive with liquid fuel -- the problem being that it makes them even more into time-delay bombs in many sorts of accident or even poor preventive maintenance. And the already-thin rationale about enforced 45-minute stops every 300-odd miles gets thinner when waiting time for those already in the line for those 45-minute charging 'gate slots' starts to multiply. When you have the choice as a driver to use cheaper straight electricity or a reasonable combustion fuel (including, if zero-carbon is a sticking point, hydrogen carrier or ammonia), and emergencies are accommodated other than with enormous roadgoing battery tenders for rapid recharge, you'll have something much closer to what drove the expansion of automobile usage originally. People tend to forget that the future of personal automobiling between 1915 and America's entry into WW1 was both lightweight and electric -- look up the story of the Edison-Ford collaboration. This was in the age when cyclecars were popular -- the comparison being with largely horse-drawn traffic with horse-drawn vehicle weights -- and so the idea of a 'horseless carriage' powered by Edison nickel-iron batteries was an attractive marketing model. Note that this failed to thrive even as Ford was developing the Rouge plant and making the Model T better and better for less and less money each year. One might argue that disincentives for driving at all are part of the "political scheme for the future", and there's certainly plenty of evidence that might support that view. But I'd prefer sustaining some of the existing support and aftermarket 'infrastructure' as well as new manufacture and pervasive market penetration.
tree68 If the general populace truly wanted EV's, there would be no need for incentives... Or disincentives for non-EV's.
But remember what Markkula taught Jobs: most of the general public don't really 'want' anything, they want what the thing can do and contribute. And when you're leveraging the combustion efficiency of a modern Rankine steam or combined-cycle plant and the synergy of grid electricity, there are inherent benefits for a great many automobile owners...
You make some good points. I must say I always enjoy reading your posts because your technical knowledge dwarfs mine. I always learn things.
azrail We don't have a big enough electrical grid nor generation capacity to charge all of the EVs that the gooberment is forcing on us..how are we going to keep the electric trains running? And solar/wind are unreliable for electric generation-neither one is available 24 hrs.
We don't have a big enough electrical grid nor generation capacity to charge all of the EVs that the gooberment is forcing on us..how are we going to keep the electric trains running? And solar/wind are unreliable for electric generation-neither one is available 24 hrs.
You might find this interesting
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/all-the-arguments-against-evs-are
-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/)
When they come up with a 500+ mile plus range and ten minute recharges, let me know...
I'll also be very interested in how they plan to recover the taxes that a 20,000 mile per year, 30 MPG vehicle pays on fuel. It's about $700, depending on the state & locale.
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
Tree68. They are already working on that. Most autos are already computers and track the mileage electronically. The mileage will be accessed annually and you will pay it on your Federal 1040 and state tax form in the state of registration.
The growing efficiency of the internal combustion engine was actually the catalyst for developing "wheelage taxes".
tree68When they come up with a 500+ mile plus range and ten minute recharges, let me know...
... and that 500 mile range needs to include when you're using the heater.
York1 tree68 When they come up with a 500+ mile plus range and ten minute recharges, let me know... ... and that 500 mile range needs to include when you're using the heater.
tree68 When they come up with a 500+ mile plus range and ten minute recharges, let me know...
and A/C - or even with the windows down
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
York1... and that 500 mile range needs to include when you're using the heater. BaltACDand A/C - or even with the windows down
BaltACDand A/C - or even with the windows down
Yep.
I know the computers these days track mileage. When we fuel our fire trucks now, the system at the fueling station automatically downloads the mileage via an accessory tied to the computer.
And the police can download the computer - I know of one case where it was reported that the vehicle in question (involved in a fatal accident) was doing 81 MPH.
Home electric service and public chargers have meters, so they could collect the road taxes based on kw.
oltmannd azrail We don't have a big enough electrical grid nor generation capacity to charge all of the EVs that the gooberment is forcing on us..how are we going to keep the electric trains running? And solar/wind are unreliable for electric generation-neither one is available 24 hrs. You might find this interesting https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/all-the-arguments-against-evs-are
The Motor Trend article linked in that article is even better IMO, because it puts paid to the argument that EVs are bad because our electrical grid is still partially powered by coal. The article points out that because EVs are so much more efficient in converting energy to traction, we would need 30% less energy to power light vehicles if (hypothetically) we stopped burning gasoline entirely, converted the entire grid to coal-fired power, and used that power to run EVs.
https://www.motortrend.com/features/truth-about-electric-cars-ad-why-you-are-being-lied-to/?sm_id=organic:sm_id:tend:gen:20:na:scl_shr_icn:edtr:mtd
Heater is a heat pump.
oltmanndHeater is a heat pump.
Which reduces mileage quite a bit. My daughter's Tesla loses a lot of mileage during cold spells, even in Dallas.
York1 oltmannd Heater is a heat pump. Which reduces mileage quite a bit. My daughter's Tesla loses a lot of mileage during cold spells, even in Dallas.
oltmannd Heater is a heat pump.
Just like an ic car has reduced MPG when the AC is running.
https://www.consumerreports.org/fuel-economy-efficiency/fuel-economy-face-off-driving-with-windows-open-or-ac-running
An "expensive model collector"
n012944Just like an IC car has reduced MPG when the AC is running. https://www.consumerreports.org/fuel-economy-efficiency/fuel-economy-face-off-driving-with-windows-open-or-ac-running
For what it's worth, I had no trouble driving a Prius most of the distance between New York and Memphis at over 70mpg indicated -- with the A/C off, no radio, minimal lights, but the driver's window open. This translated into ONE fuel stop over the 1100-mile trip, even with the tiny 10-gallon tank. (Of course this was in seasonable-termperature weather with no rain, but without favorable wind... and at sensible Interstate speed, not hypermiling driving strategy)
It would be interesting to see what results Tesla drivers might produce if using similar driving strategy on test, particularly with flexible control over the heat-pump compressor drive as well as simply cutting it on and off.
Of course much of the 'heat' for an IC-engined car is sourced directly from the rejected (waste) heat from the engine, so except to the extent the Tesla system uses the car's own heat sources with the higher COP of the heat-pump system you're naturally discussing an inherent IC 'advantage'.
You may recall the controversy surrounding the experiences of the New York Times reporter who had unanticipated 'range issues' with cold-weather operation.
n012944Just like an ic car has reduced MPG when the AC is running.
I'm talking about heat. Running the AC with an internal combustion engine affects the range much less than running a heat pump in an EV.
From Car and Driver, citing the Ontario company Geotab: In EVs, there is a substantial loss of range between outside temps of 70ºF and 20ºF.
MidlandMike Home electric service and public chargers have meters, so they could collect the road taxes based on kw.
Note that in J.Bishops' case, he's using his home solar to charge his EV - so it's not metered. And in the case of a home - how much of my lighting, etc, is subject to road tax? It would be virtually impossible to separate the two, unless the charger itself is metered separately.
I would absolutely expect a public charger to include some form of road tax.
In my opinion, Noah is being too optimistic about developing resources needed for a majority EV future. He is correct in stating that the rapid drop in cost of battery energy storage over the last 30 years, but he sort of glossed over the advances made possible by IGBT's and more recently SiCFET's in power control circuitry. With regards to SiCFET's, a 300kW (~400hp) inverter weighs about 15lbs, though that doesn't include the cooling system.
Noah's article didn't go into any great detail on the problem of the heavily correlated downtime for solar and wind generation. This is pretty much a deal killer for freight RR electrification unless the overall life cycle cost of energy storage is significantly less than the cost of producing electric energy in the first place. One would still to include cost of back-up generation. (BTW, this is why I don't think that solar of wind power is as cheap as their proponents make it out to be.)
For commuter rail in relatively sunny locations, battery EMU's might make economic sense where the batteries could be recharged by solar power between the morning and evening rush hours. For most non-electrified commuter operations, some sort of hybrid DMU or hybrid diesel locomotive would make more sense. With the short distances between stops on commuter lines, the hybrid approach could get a significant recovery of the energy used for acceleration and with DMU's the waste heat from the prime mover can be used for heating. A couple of other advantages is that the hybrid DMU could reach track speed in less time and regenerative braking would drastically reduce friction brake wear.
With respect to air-sourced heat pumps: Unless the relative humidity is low, ice buildup will be a problem when outside air temperatures approach freezing.
My 2 cents' worth on the road tax:
We're already seeing the usual government pile-on for revenue now that BEVs are becoming more common. Fewer purchase incentives, 'road use' and wheel-tax fees specially for electrics... probably fees added at registration for first-responder and training surcharges and a 'fund' for disposal of the hazardous materials.
We might take a leaf from the British system, where the annual MOT is calculated from logged miles run rather than per gallon via eMPG or whatever their metric equivalent is. It would be very simple to use metadata during charging to capture cumulative mileage, and even to determine in-state/out-of-state from GPS/GIS data, and then warehouse the data to relevant agencies... which would add the tax at registration time and handle how the revenue gets distributed.
Note that this completely bypasses use of the charged power for non-road purposes.
York1 n012944 Just like an ic car has reduced MPG when the AC is running. I'm talking about heat.
n012944 Just like an ic car has reduced MPG when the AC is running.
I'm talking about heat.
Cool. I wasn't.
York1 Running the AC with an internal combustion engine affects the range much less than running a heat pump in an EV.
Running the AC with an internal combustion engine affects the range much less than running a heat pump in an EV.
According to winter testing, the Tesla model S range drops 16% in cold weather. My daily driver IC car drops from 24 mpg on the highway to 20 mpg in Florida's summer. Around a 20% drop in range. The V10 goes from 18 mpg to 14 mph with the AC on. An even bigger percantage drop.
https://www.carscoops.com/2023/02/tesla-model-s-sets-cold-weather-distance-record-in-norwegian-test/
n012944 York1 n012944 Just like an ic car has reduced MPG when the AC is running. I'm talking about heat. Cool. I wasn't.
Cool. I was when you answered my post.
n012944 York1 Running the AC with an internal combustion engine affects the range much less than running a heat pump in an EV. According to winter testing, the Tesla model S range drops 16% in cold weather. My daily driver IC car drops from 24 mpg on the highway to 20 mpg in Florida's summer. Around a 20% drop in range. The V10 goes from 18 mpg to 14 mph with the AC on. An even bigger percantage drop. https://www.carscoops.com/2023/02/tesla-model-s-sets-cold-weather-distance-record-in-norwegian-test/
Cool. You'll notice I wasn't talking about MPG or percentage. I was talking about range. Take up your cool comments with Car and Driver.
York1 Cool. You'll notice I wasn't talking about MPG or percentage. I was talking about range.
Cool. You'll notice I wasn't talking about MPG or percentage. I was talking about range.
I hope you know that a lower mpg will lower the range on a car, right?
York1 Take up your cool comments with Car and Driver.
Take up your cool comments with Car and Driver.
They most certainly are cool.
Without rehashing all the cool comments, looking back at the top of this column, my first comment was about the range of an internal combustion vehicle compared to an EV when using a heater.
An internal combustion vehicle loses very little range when the heater is turned on. An EV loses a considerable amount of range when the heater is turned on, resistance heater or heat pump.
I'm very happy for you that your car loses MPGs in the Florida heat, and that your V10 loses an even bigger percentage. Cool.
How much do your internal combustion vehicles lose with the heater on?
I (J Bishop), agree that at some point, in fairness, EV's are going to have to be billed for using the state and federal roads that depend largely on gas taxes. Right now, those of us in ideal, sunny areas like California or Arizona, are getting a free ride. Here, in sunnny So. Cal, solar panels are everywhere. I have sons in Arizona, same there. Obviously, not all locations are so fortunate.
I have now had a Tesla for about a month. We have two other cars, but now drive them less. Our van costs more thean $70 to fill up. My English sports car costs about $50 (because it needs 100 octane gas). For the past month, we have not pulled into a gas station. The get up and go of the Tesla is better than anything I have ever driven.
Not likely I will every buy another car with an IC engine (unless I need to replace the van and no EV equivant is available).
Its just great not having to buy gas!
York1How much do your internal combustion vehicles lose with the heater on?
I'm reminded of something a number of landfills in this area are doing - capturing the methane created and burning it in gensets, then selling the power to the grid.
Something else some of them do - using the waste heat from the gensets, they air condition greenhouses. I've been told that some 20% of the hothouse tomatoes grown in NY state come from one such installation in the Buffalo area.
Back in the day, I've been told that travellers in high heat areas (ie, deserts) would run with their heater blasting to help cool the engine.
The railroads used steam to both heat and cool passenger cars.
Aside from the small amount of electricity required to run the blower, running the heater in an IC vehicle has zero effect on mileage.
tree68 MidlandMike Home electric service and public chargers have meters, so they could collect the road taxes based on kw. Note that in J.Bishops' case, he's using his home solar to charge his EV - so it's not metered. And in the case of a home - how much of my lighting, etc, is subject to road tax? It would be virtually impossible to separate the two, unless the charger itself is metered separately. I would absolutely expect a public charger to include some form of road tax.
Yes, my assumption was that if the smart meter could not separate out the EV charge, then there would be a separate meter.
York1 Without rehashing all the cool comments, looking back at the top of this column, my first comment was about the range of an internal combustion vehicle compared to an EV when using a heater.
Cool. And as discussions tend to do, the subject was changed by me to air conditioning affecting range on an IC auto. You can feel free to ignore it if you are that hung up on heat. We tend to not worry about such things in Florida.
York1 An internal combustion vehicle loses very little range when the heater is turned on. An EV loses a considerable amount of range when the heater is turned on, resistance heater or heat pump.
As per the cool article I linked 16% is not "considerable".
York1 I'm very happy for you that your car loses MPGs in the Florida heat, and that your V10 loses an even bigger percentage. Cool.
It isn't just the Florida heat, just about any states heat will do it if you run the a/c. But I am glad you are happy.
York1 How much do your internal combustion vehicles lose with the heater on?
I don't know, I couldn't tell you the last time I used one. I get it, you want to show that IC vehicles are better. I am sure 100 plus years ago, buggy whip salesmen were doing the same thing. I am sure 80 years ago, Lima and Baldwin sales teams where doing the same thing with steam locomotives. Time marches on.
Regarding tying in alternate energy into the grid, here is an NPR story on some of the problems encountered:
https://www.npr.org/2023/05/16/1176462647/green-energy-transmission-queue-power-grid-wind-solar
For those who might think NPR is some sort of government-socialist soundbox, they get about 14% of their funding from the feds and states. Mostly it's from individuals, corporations, and special interest groups (including conservative ones).
n012944And as discussions tend to do, the subject was changed by me to air conditioning affecting range on an IC auto. You can feel free to ignore it if you are that hung up on heat. We tend to not worry about such things in Florida.
Cool!
MidlandMikeRegarding tying in alternate energy into the grid, here is an NPR story on some of the problems encountered:
I've mentioned it before - here in northern New York, we're having the same problem. I drove by a new solar farm the other day - the wires to connect it to the grid are hanging limply, unconnected, from the pole.
Our regional landfill had the same problem when they wanted to connect their methane-fueled gensets to the grid a few years ago.
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