What's amazing is the reaction I get when I suggest that people just chill. SARS-CoV-2 needs to be respected, but the level of panic currently being observed is completely uncalled for.
Never mind the political aspect many want to insert into the issue.
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
Hey, Lady Firestorm and I went out to eat tonight at a barbeque place that just opened up. Two reasons. First, we love barbeque! Second, we want to give the working folks who opened the place a fighting chance at being a success, doubly important with all this coronavirus panic going on. Cars in the parking lot usually mean more cars in the parking lot. Cascade effect, you know?
And guess what? They were GREAT! Glad we went! And we'll go again!
Political aspect? How about the great words of Franklin Delano Roosevelt?
"The only thing we have to fear is, fear itself!"
Hockey has been cancelled. The world might as well end. And my Oilers were actually going to make the playoffs this year!
As was noted earlier, the rail blockades are all gone, at least for now. Coastal GasLink has resumed pipeline construction, and Trans-Mountain is continuing full steam ahead.
It is normal for details of agreements like this not to be released immediately. The same thing happened when we got the tentative agreement that ended the recent CTY strike at CN. It takes time to spread the word around and discuss the agreement with all those who will be affected by it.
Greetings from Alberta
-an Articulate Malcontent
I don't think people should panic, but I do think people should do everything in their power to limit contact with other humanoids.
We were less than prudent and did stop for lunch at a little fish joint today. It was just order at a counter, and we ate at our own table outside, not close to others.
But I think that's going to do it for risk for a while. We will be on the road for about half of the next ten days. I think it's going to be drive-through whenever possible. We are definitely not eating the hotel buffet breakfasts. Fortunately most nights we will be in VRBO rentals, or staying with friends or relatives. Only two hotel nights. But we will need to grocery shop. Traveling ain't staying home! Maine in early spring sucks, but it will be nice to get back to our own home, and it will be easier to control our own destiny there.
Here in Charleston SC today, there were markedly fewer people out and about. Much fewer. Of course, maybe everyone was at Walmart buying toilet paper!
I was going to eat supper at Panera tonight, but they had their dining area completely blocked off. I ate elsewhere.
Saw an interesting post on good ol' FB - suggesting that many people may have already had the virus, just didn't realize it. And that has been reported.
Now there's news that labs lack key materials to actually conduct the test for the virus. Everyone can still be tested, but it may be weeks before your results are available...
tree68 Everyone can still be tested, but it may be weeks before your results are available...
At least you'll know after you had it that you had it.
_____________
"A stranger's just a friend you ain't met yet." --- Dave Gardner
Flintlock76Political aspect? How about the great words of Franklin Delano Roosevelt? "The only thing we have to fear is, fear itself!"
In the media world - FEAR SELLS.
Ever since NBC bought The Westher Channel - now whenever a storm is forecast we get told how many million people it will affect - the bigger the number the more fear gets sold.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
SD70Dude Hockey has been cancelled. The world might as well end. And my Oilers were actually going to make the playoffs this year!
Well, you're way "Up North", but I understand you.
For me, it's baseball. It's cancelled too. Can't do a thing about it except wash my hands. Again.
First weekend without hockey, or any sports.
Hey, did you guys know the Earth is round!
Fim Noir tonight on Turner Classic was ' I Wake Up Screaming'
These days who dosen't.
I'm an open-wheel auto racing fan. Formula One and IndyCar season openers were supposed to be today. Both were cancelled, after all the teams were already there. Most F1 teams traveled from England to Australia. Most IndyCar teams traveled from Indianapolis. Serious $ lost by F1. In addition to all the travel and shipping and hotel costs there are many other things one would not readily think of. For example, Pirelli is now scapping 1800 perfectly new, mega-expensive racing tires. Article explains why. They go for around $700 each. $1.2mil.
https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/pirelli-scraps-1800-tyres-australian-gp/4749317/
I was really looking forward to those races all winter. :-( But good decisions by the managements.
.
Rio Grande Valley, CFI,CFII
PJS1 Of those that have died, many of them have had underlying health issues, or they were elderly. Or both!
BaltACD Flintlock76 Political aspect? How about the great words of Franklin Delano Roosevelt? "The only thing we have to fear is, fear itself!" In the media world - FEAR SELLS. Ever since NBC bought The Westher Channel - now whenever a storm is forecast we get told how many million people it will affect - the bigger the number the more fear gets sold.
Flintlock76 Political aspect? How about the great words of Franklin Delano Roosevelt? "The only thing we have to fear is, fear itself!"
Oh, yeah baby. And if you're in an area where Jim Cantore of The Weather Channel shows up you KNOW you're in trouble! He's "The Angel of Doom!"
Flintlock76 Dr. Forbes gets all the love on TWC but Cantore is the man. Mark me down as a longtime fan BaltACD Flintlock76 Political aspect? How about the great words of Franklin Delano Roosevelt? "The only thing we have to fear is, fear itself!" In the media world - FEAR SELLS. Ever since NBC bought The Westher Channel - now whenever a storm is forecast we get told how many million people it will affect - the bigger the number the more fear gets sold. Oh, yeah baby. And if you're in an area where Jim Cantore of The Weather Channel shows up you KNOW you're in trouble! He's "The Angel of Doom!"
Dr. Forbes gets all the love on TWC but Cantore is the man. Mark me down as a longtime fan
Flintlock76Oh, yeah baby. And if you're in an area where Jim Cantore of The Weather Channel shows up you KNOW you're in trouble! He's "The Angel of Doom!"
Our last big storm only rated a cameraman from TWC...
PJS1 Again, the statistics, although the people in charge apparently don’t know how to interpret them or don’t care to. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the estimated population of the United States is 330,414,717 The estimated population of Texas is 28,995,881. According to the New York Times, as of Saturday morning there were 2,195 actual or presumed cases of COVID-19 in the United States. Deaths were 29. Thus, approximately .00066 percent of the U.S. population has contracted the disease and .000015 percent has died from it. Approximately .00018 percent of Texans have tested positive for COVID-19. No one has died from it. Approximately 96.5 percent of the people that contract COVID-19 survive it. Of those that have died, many of them have had underlying health issues, or they were elderly. Or both! People should be cautious. They should practice good hygiene, as recommended by the CDC, avoid large crowds, and not panic. Get off the roads. Your chances of being killed or seriously hurt in a car crash are probably higher than being taken down by COVID-19.
Are you certain you have a better grasp of statistics than those you demean? What is your training?
charlie hebdo Are you certain you have a better grasp of statistics than those you demean? What is your training?
Look up the statistics!
Since when is presenting statistical data demeaning?
I don't care what you think!
I can make any claim about my education, experience, etc. And that is all it is - a claim that cannot be verified. It finally dawned on me that quoting experience and education on a forum like this is stupid. There is no way to prove it. That, BTW, applies to everyone participating in the forums.
PJS1 charlie hebdo Are you certain you have a better grasp of statistics than those you demean? What is your training? Look up the statistics! Since when is presenting statistical data demeaning? I don't care what you think! I can make any claim about my education, experience, etc. And that is all it is - a claim that cannot be verified. It finally dawned on me that quoting experience and education on a forum like this is stupid. There is no way to prove it. That, BTW, applies to everyone participating in the forums.
I don't understand what is being disputed regarding your use of statistics. To be clear, I only asked for your source about the statement that most of fatilities are older people with underlying conditions. I hear that all the time and I am not sure I believe it. It sounds like somthing that is just repeated. Yet it would be easy to back up with the actual numbers indicating age of the people who have died from the virus. It seems like an easy statistic. It is not that I feel you should provide it, but I do think the authorities could easily provide it. The fact that they don't leads to my distrust of the claim. The more it is claimed that only old and unhealthy people are dying, they less of the threat the virus seems to be.
From what I read, I get the impression that the virus spread starts out slow and maybe that makes governments complacent. Then suddenly the virus spread explodes.
EuclidTo be clear, I only asked for your source about the statement that most of fatilities are older people with underlying conditions.
That information is readily available via a search. Charts and anecdotal data both indicate that it's the old and infirm who are most likely to die (last chart I saw listed zero deaths under age 2).
This is a respiratory virus - "Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome." The original SARS, a corona virus as well, dates to 2003. It has not been seen since 2004.
As a respiratory virus, the most common victims will be those who already have respiratory issues - COPD, asthma, etc. Of course, those lacking the ability to fight off an infection (ie, imunocompromised) are also at risk, as one might expect. Most folks who fit that description are generally already sensitive to the risks they face and are probably taking precautions.
Euclid I don't understand what is being disputed regarding your use of statistics. To be clear, I only asked for your source about the statement that most of fatilities are older people with underlying conditions.
The fatality rates by age can be found on the CDC&P website or the New York Times. Statistics for other countries, as well as the world, can be found at the World Health Organization.
This is early in the US encounter with the virus. Cases are growing exponentally. What happened in Italy can happen here. Italy has more ICU beds than the US per capita, but their hospital system was overwhelmed. If half the US population got the virus, at 3.5% death rate, that's 5,782,257 deaths. Of course if we had a shortage of ICU/ventilators/techs the death toll could be much higher.
MidlandMike PJS1 Again, the statistics, although the people in charge apparently don’t know how to interpret them or don’t care to. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the estimated population of the United States is 330,414,717 The estimated population of Texas is 28,995,881. According to the New York Times, as of Saturday morning there were 2,195 actual or presumed cases of COVID-19 in the United States. Deaths were 29. Thus, approximately .00066 percent of the U.S. population has contracted the disease and .000015 percent has died from it. Approximately .00018 percent of Texans have tested positive for COVID-19. No one has died from it. Approximately 96.5 percent of the people that contract COVID-19 survive it. Of those that have died, many of them have had underlying health issues, or they were elderly. Or both! People should be cautious. They should practice good hygiene, as recommended by the CDC, avoid large crowds, and not panic. Get off the roads. Your chances of being killed or seriously hurt in a car crash are probably higher than being taken down by COVID-19. This is early in the US encounter with the virus. Cases are growing exponentally. What happened in Italy can happen here. Italy has more ICU beds than the US per capita, but their hospital system was overwhelmed. If half the US population got the virus, at 3.5% death rate, that's 5,782,257 deaths. Of course if we had a shortage of ICU/ventilators/techs the death toll could be much higher.
People can use the data to 'PROVE' any side of the argument they desire.
PSJ:
Earlier I cited the relevant statistics for any meaningful comparisions in regard to China. In disease studies, these are incidence and prevalence rates. You stated that those in charge are not up to speed on the data. The people actually in charge are at places like CDC who understand these stats far better than you or I. That is why I asked your coursework in stat. I was required to take four graduate level stat classes and use descriptive and inferential stats quite frequently professionally.
BaltACDPeople can use the data to 'PROVE' any side of the argument they desire.
Figures don't lie but liars figure.
MidlandMike This is early in the US encounter with the virus. Cases are growing exponentally. What happened in Italy can happen here. Italy has more ICU beds than the US per capita, but their hospital system was overwhelmed. If half the US population got the virus, at 3.5% death rate, that's 5,782,257 deaths. Of course if we had a shortage of ICU/ventilators/techs the death toll could be much higher.
PJS1As of Friday, March 13, 2020, according to the World Health Organization (WHO), there were 132,758 confirmed COVID-19 cases in the world.
It has been opined (by a doctor working in the field - sorry, don't have a link) that SARS-CoV-2 has been in circulation in this country much longer than anyone is aware. Recall that we're told almost every year that the "current" flu shot may not prevent every strain of the flu. Thus someone who came down with a mild case of SARS-CoV-2 may have just figured they got one of the strains that "got away." The malady passes and life goes on.
It took some clusters of the sickness, and clusters of deaths before alarm bells really went off.
SARS-CoV (the original, ca 2003) was gone by 2004.
Psj: What I presented were the population, number of cases and deaths and mortality rate in Hubei province where well over 75% of the cases and deaths in China occurred. Using the entire population of China is grossly unrepresentative of the deadliness of this virus. Since China is a police state, once they admitted what was happening in Hubei, they tightly sealed the border with adjoining states.
Here is a link to reported stats worldwide. The US number have not changed since about 2300 (0300 GMT ) This link is updated almost every hour.
https://www.bing.com/search?q=covid19+update&qs=SC&pq=covia19+update&sc=8-14&cvid=2EA6632B0C2F44BBB97AD852FFE05D9B&FORM=QBRE&sp=1
Interesting how they show something over 3,700 cases so far in the US, with 69 deaths, but also find a reason to point out that just 73 of the reported cases have recovered. Is that supposed to imply that many of the 3,600+ remaining reported cases are going to die? That flies in the face of even the worst reported death rates.
The earliest quarantine cases are out of quarantine now.
And it's worth noting that it's felt that there are many unreported cases. It would appear that the bulk of them have recovered, although several cases of SARS-CoV-2 have been discovered post mortem. The rest may not have even known they had the disease.
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