Thanks for the good answers. Now that some of the trade deals are halfway done or more our trade should pick up in 2020 hopefully. Used to see 50 trains a day folkston Georgia. Now 30 is a busy day. The more the merrier. Waycross Georgia. Is double that
In fairness I should also mention the modal shift of some crude oil from pipeline to rail, although it is a niche market.
Was going to mention shift from coal loads as well. Railroads will need to retrench and find other services to compete for.
Anecdotally I saw many businesses stocking up in anticipation of tariff disputes and retaillers using as a selling point to beat the price increase. So not surprised at a traffic slowdown now.
MidlandMike This whole thread seems to ignore modal shift in transportation. As mentioned, power plant fuel has shifted from rail (coal) to pipeline (gas). Trucking tonnage has gone up 3.3% last year: https://www.trucking.org/article/ATA-Truck-Tonnage-Index-Increased-3.3-Percent-in-2019 Using rail as an economic leading indicator has been replace by using total transportation stats: https://www.bts.gov/newsroom/research-confirms-transportation-index-leading-indicator
This whole thread seems to ignore modal shift in transportation. As mentioned, power plant fuel has shifted from rail (coal) to pipeline (gas). Trucking tonnage has gone up 3.3% last year:
https://www.trucking.org/article/ATA-Truck-Tonnage-Index-Increased-3.3-Percent-in-2019
Using rail as an economic leading indicator has been replace by using total transportation stats:
https://www.bts.gov/newsroom/research-confirms-transportation-index-leading-indicator
Thank you. So the economic slump and shifting to pipeline and trucks are a double hit.
charlie hebdo Four threads with the same title by the same poster, chicagorails. Trolling time?
Four threads with the same title by the same poster, chicagorails. Trolling time?
COAL!!! Hundreds of coal fired power plants have closed in the U.S. in the last few years, accounting for something like 40% or more of the capacity. Coal mines are closing. The number of coal trains are way down, even from the Powder River Basin. That's a major drag on rails, which built their systems to handle the rivers of coal during recent decades. That's all over now. More coal power plant closings are projected over the next few years. Some railroad lines - and maybe railroads - will shut down in the wake of all of these closings.
charlie hebdoI notice you dismiss this fact and the huge deficit that gave us a sugar fix with just another "what about."
I did that?
I thought I showed that if we are heading into a slump with a "mediocre 2.3%" growth, we've been heading into one for years. I didn't dismiss it.
I also don't remember dismissing the huge deficit. In fact, I don't remember mentioning the deficit at all. I have been very critical of both parties, who have controlled Congress, for the huge deficits.
York1 John
There is definitely a loss of market share to trucks.The almost total focus on operating ratio, has helped drive business away, coupled with even worse customer service offered with precision railroading. It is a sad state of affairs currently. Wall Street will eventually demand growth in revenues and profits from railroads. I think CN and CP are trying to move ahead in that direction.
James Sanchez
York1 charlie hebdo According to Statista, all your figures are correct, except for 2017. It should be 2.2%. I got the number from that notoriously right-wing rag, The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/20/trump-v-obama-economy-charts/ My point is that if the numbers indicate a slumping economy, then the economy has been slumping for the past 11 years. Is this the bellwether for a recession? Will we have a recession sometime? Of course. We have not had a period of growth years where we did not have a recession to end the growth. It's a fact of life in our economy. If not in 2020, then probably 2021. If you want to point out promises that candidates make that do not prove out, check every candidate for the past 200 years.
charlie hebdo According to Statista, all your figures are correct, except for 2017. It should be 2.2%.
I got the number from that notoriously right-wing rag, The Washington Post.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/20/trump-v-obama-economy-charts/
My point is that if the numbers indicate a slumping economy, then the economy has been slumping for the past 11 years.
Is this the bellwether for a recession? Will we have a recession sometime? Of course. We have not had a period of growth years where we did not have a recession to end the growth. It's a fact of life in our economy. If not in 2020, then probably 2021.
If you want to point out promises that candidates make that do not prove out, check every candidate for the past 200 years.
It's simply evidence of a slump, getting worse, not a recession. I notice you dismiss this fact and the huge deficit that gave us a sugar fix with just another "what about."
2018 was a banner year for freight.. 2019 much less so.. and so far 2020 is shaping up to be slower still.
charlie hebdoAccording to Statista, all your figures are correct, except for 2017. It should be 2.2%.
Correction: According to Statista, all your figures are correct, except for 2017. It should be 2.2%.
So in spite of a huge tax cut, the average growth under the current occupant was only 2.47% annually (Obama 2.17% annually after the Bush recession), even though he boasted about how he would make the economy soar to 4% or 5% annual growth.
charlie hebdoFor 2019, growth was down to a mediocre 2.3%, from 2.9% in 2018.
For historical view:
2010: 2.6%
2011: 1.6%
2012: 2.2%
2013: 1.8%
2014: 2.5%
2015: 2.9%
2016: 1.6%
2017: 2.4%
2018: 2.9%
2019: 2.3%
charlie hebdo Back to the topic. The main reason carloading is down is a slumping economy. For 2019, growth was down to a mediocre 2.3%, from 2.9% in 2018. In the 4th quarter it was only 2.1% likely from the Trump tariffs.
Back to the topic. The main reason carloading is down is a slumping economy. For 2019, growth was down to a mediocre 2.3%, from 2.9% in 2018. In the 4th quarter it was only 2.1% likely from the Trump tariffs.
Exactly.. transportation is a bellwether..we see it first, and in a few months time it will be revealed to the general public in the evening news.
Not in Wisconsin. She worked hard.
Minimum wage was raised in some progressive states and localities. Not federally, of course.
33. W2 box1 went from 16 to 24 yr to yr. Single mom, 2 kids. In addition, EIC/ACTC 8,325. Where the pedal meets the metal. Not abstract gumflapping.
All else being equal, wage increases due to inflation alone should result in an increase from year to year. Real purchasing power, however, might be another story . . .
- PDN.
Gramp BaltACD Gramp Funny, I've been preparing individual tax returns, and there have been primarily significant increases in income year to year. Example today was a gal who works for a fast food place. She was ecstatic. Said amount she earned in 2019 was the most she's earned in a year in her whole life.
BaltACD Gramp Funny, I've been preparing individual tax returns, and there have been primarily significant increases in income year to year. Example today was a gal who works for a fast food place. She was ecstatic. Said amount she earned in 2019 was the most she's earned in a year in her whole life.
Gramp Funny, I've been preparing individual tax returns, and there have been primarily significant increases in income year to year. Example today was a gal who works for a fast food place. She was ecstatic. Said amount she earned in 2019 was the most she's earned in a year in her whole life.
The major railroads are also more and more choosy about the business they want. One of the tennants of the Unified Plan 2020 is "secure appropriate business."
The more work (switching) required, the less they are interested.
Jeff
PJS1 petitnj Railroads are not out selling their services. They have adopted the "ostridge" mode of competition (Sick you head in the sand and pretend the rest of the world doesn't matter.) To know whether the railroads are not out selling their services or why, one would have to be part of the corporate planning team, was well as the executive team, of every railroad in the U.S., or at least have access to their activity reports. That would be quite a challenge. Here is one thing they teach students in the nation's better business schools. Don't make statements that cannot be supported with verifiable evidence.
petitnj Railroads are not out selling their services. They have adopted the "ostridge" mode of competition (Sick you head in the sand and pretend the rest of the world doesn't matter.)
To know whether the railroads are not out selling their services or why, one would have to be part of the corporate planning team, was well as the executive team, of every railroad in the U.S., or at least have access to their activity reports. That would be quite a challenge.
Here is one thing they teach students in the nation's better business schools. Don't make statements that cannot be supported with verifiable evidence.
Both UP and NS in meetings with analysts over the past six months have noted (bragged might be a more apt term) that they are maintaining pricing discipline despite loss of volume in both carload and intermodal business segments.
I won't deny this could mean railroad sales people may still be knocking on doors trying to pull in new business based on their theoretical superior service offering but; in this day and age low cost is what gets the buyer's attention whether we are talking stuff on Amazon or procurement of transportion services.
THE major problem is the additional tarrifs on trade with China. Some companies have found new supploers in such countries as Vietnam, Burma and Bangladesh. Others are still struggeling and some are still trying to find new suppliers. Sales of soy beans are way down. Used to be we sold one of every three rows of soy beans to China. That number has been greatly reduced and farmers are selling their farms because they cannot make it any longer.
BaltACD Gramp Funny, I've been preparing individual tax returns, and there have been primarily significant increases in income year to year. Example today was a gal who works for a fast food place. She was ecstatic. Said amount she earned in 2019 was the most she's earned in a year in her whole life. As a employed individual - every year's earnings should always surpass the prior year's earnings - the employed should always be striving to earn more than they did the prior year.
As a employed individual - every year's earnings should always surpass the prior year's earnings - the employed should always be striving to earn more than they did the prior year.
Have plenty of experience to know the difference between "should" and "does". Plus I said significant.
Easy. Search UP web site for marketing jobs: Nothing Found. Search Indeed for "Railroad Marketing" 5 jobs at Florida East Coast and nothing else.
petitnjRailroads are not out selling their services. They have adopted the "ostridge" mode of competition (Sick you head in the sand and pretend the rest of the world doesn't matter.)
One thing they teach students in the nation's better business schools is not to make statements that cannot be supported with verifiable evidence.
Rio Grande Valley, CFI,CFII
The looming threat of tarriffs caused mass purchases in previous years. Additionally, with oil prices down and stable, trucking is significant competition. After recent service meltdowns shippers are reluctant to go with the railroads. As of 2019, the spot cost of trucking and intermodal have converged and most shippers find no significant advantage to rail freight. Additionally, the trucking industry is now coordinated by digital brokers (much like Uber has smashed the taxi). These brokers are more flexible and less costly than traditional brokers and make trucks more flexible. Railroads are not out selling their services. They have adopted the "ostridge" mode of competition (Sick you head in the sand and pretend the rest of the world doesn't matter.) The only thing that matters is the Operating Ratio. Ratios have two numbers: income and outgo. They are cutting outgo to make the OR better. And surprise! Incomes are slipping as service gets more expensive, less competitive and less timely. That's what they teach in Business School, I guess.
GrampFunny, I've been preparing individual tax returns, and there have been primarily significant increases in income year to year. Example today was a gal who works for a fast food place. She was ecstatic. Said amount she earned in 2019 was the most she's earned in a year in her whole life.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
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