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Why is traffic tonnages down?

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Why is traffic tonnages down?
Posted by chicagorails on Saturday, January 25, 2020 8:03 AM

Economy good why not railroads

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Posted by Euclid on Monday, January 27, 2020 9:38 AM

chicagorails

Economy good why not railroads

 

 

 

 

The economy is not good.  It has been slowing all of 2019, and continues to slow.  The railroads are a leading indicator of a slowing economy.  

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Posted by BaltACD on Monday, January 27, 2020 9:41 AM

The Stock Market numbers and the Economy are two different things.  The Economy is nowhere near as good as the Stock Market numbers.

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Monday, January 27, 2020 10:04 AM

Four threads with the same title by the same poster,  chicagorails.  Trolling time? 

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Posted by Euclid on Monday, January 27, 2020 10:04 AM

Yes, the economy and stock market are two very differernt entities.  And then there is the Bandwagon that always tells us about how the ecomony is roaring.  But the only thing roaring is the Bandwagon.   

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Posted by chicagorails on Monday, January 27, 2020 4:26 PM
Comp. Problem sorry
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Posted by Gramp on Monday, January 27, 2020 11:11 PM

Funny, I've been preparing individual tax returns, and there have been primarily significant increases in income year to year. Example today was a gal who works for a fast food place. She was ecstatic. Said amount she earned in 2019 was the most she's earned in a year in her whole life. 

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Posted by BaltACD on Tuesday, January 28, 2020 7:54 AM

Gramp
Funny, I've been preparing individual tax returns, and there have been primarily significant increases in income year to year. Example today was a gal who works for a fast food place. She was ecstatic. Said amount she earned in 2019 was the most she's earned in a year in her whole life. 

As a employed individual - every year's earnings should always surpass the prior year's earnings - the employed should always be striving to earn more than they did the prior year.

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Posted by petitnj on Tuesday, January 28, 2020 8:31 AM

The looming threat of tarriffs caused mass purchases in previous years. Additionally, with oil prices down and stable, trucking is significant competition. After recent service meltdowns shippers are reluctant to go with the railroads.

As of 2019, the spot cost of trucking and intermodal have converged and most shippers find no significant advantage to rail freight. Additionally, the trucking industry is now coordinated by digital brokers (much like Uber has smashed the taxi). These brokers are more flexible and less costly than traditional brokers and make trucks more flexible.

Railroads are not out selling their services. They have adopted the "ostridge" mode of competition (Sick you head in the sand and pretend the rest of the world doesn't matter.) The only thing that matters is the Operating Ratio. Ratios have two numbers: income and outgo. They are cutting outgo to make the OR better. And surprise! Incomes are slipping as service gets more expensive, less competitive and less timely.  That's what they teach in Business School, I guess.

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Posted by PJS1 on Tuesday, January 28, 2020 10:06 AM

petitnj
Railroads are not out selling their services. They have adopted the "ostridge" mode of competition (Sick you head in the sand and pretend the rest of the world doesn't matter.) 

To know whether the railroads are not out selling their services or why, one would have to be part of the corporate planning team, was well as the executive team, of every railroad in the U.S., or at least have access to their activity reports.  That would be quite a challenge.

One thing they teach students in the nation's better business schools is not to make statements that cannot be supported with verifiable evidence. 

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Posted by petitnj on Tuesday, January 28, 2020 11:53 AM

Easy. Search UP web site for marketing jobs: Nothing Found. 
Search Indeed for "Railroad Marketing" 5 jobs at Florida East Coast and nothing else. 

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Posted by Gramp on Tuesday, January 28, 2020 1:43 PM

BaltACD

 

 
Gramp
Funny, I've been preparing individual tax returns, and there have been primarily significant increases in income year to year. Example today was a gal who works for a fast food place. She was ecstatic. Said amount she earned in 2019 was the most she's earned in a year in her whole life. 

 

As a employed individual - every year's earnings should always surpass the prior year's earnings - the employed should always be striving to earn more than they did the prior year.

 

Have plenty of experience to know the difference between "should" and "does". Plus I said significant. 

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Posted by caldreamer on Tuesday, January 28, 2020 2:16 PM

THE major problem is the additional tarrifs on trade with China.  Some companies have found new supploers in such countries as Vietnam, Burma and Bangladesh.  Others are still struggeling and some are still trying to find new suppliers.  Sales of soy beans are way down.  Used to be we sold one of every three rows of soy beans to China.  That number has been greatly reduced and farmers are selling their farms because they cannot make it any longer. 

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Posted by Juniata Man on Tuesday, January 28, 2020 4:09 PM

PJS1

 

 
petitnj
Railroads are not out selling their services. They have adopted the "ostridge" mode of competition (Sick you head in the sand and pretend the rest of the world doesn't matter.) 

 

To know whether the railroads are not out selling their services or why, one would have to be part of the corporate planning team, was well as the executive team, of every railroad in the U.S., or at least have access to their activity reports.  That would be quite a challenge.

Here is one thing they teach students in the nation's better business schools.  Don't make statements that cannot be supported with verifiable evidence. 

 

Both UP and NS in meetings with analysts over the past six months have noted (bragged might be a more apt term) that they are maintaining pricing discipline despite loss of volume in both carload and intermodal business segments.  

I won't deny this could mean railroad sales people may still be knocking on doors trying to pull in new business based on their theoretical superior service offering but; in this day and age low cost is what gets the buyer's attention whether we are talking stuff on Amazon or procurement of transportion services.

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Posted by jeffhergert on Tuesday, January 28, 2020 4:55 PM

The major railroads are also more and more choosy about the business they want.  One of the tennants of the Unified Plan 2020 is "secure appropriate business."

The more work (switching) required, the less they are interested.  

Jeff

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Posted by Electroliner 1935 on Tuesday, January 28, 2020 5:16 PM

Gramp
 
BaltACD 
Gramp
Funny, I've been preparing individual tax returns, and there have been primarily significant increases in income year to year. Example today was a gal who works for a fast food place. She was ecstatic. Said amount she earned in 2019 was the most she's earned in a year in her whole life. 

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Posted by Paul_D_North_Jr on Tuesday, January 28, 2020 7:03 PM

All else being equal, wage increases due to inflation alone should result in an increase from year to year.  Real purchasing power, however, might be another story . . . 

- PDN. 

"This Fascinating Railroad Business" (title of 1943 book by Robert Selph Henry of the AAR)
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Posted by Gramp on Wednesday, January 29, 2020 9:40 PM

33. W2 box1 went from 16 to 24 yr to yr. Single mom, 2 kids. In addition, EIC/ACTC 8,325. Where the pedal meets the metal. Not abstract gumflapping. 

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Wednesday, January 29, 2020 9:51 PM

Minimum wage was raised in some progressive states and localities. Not federally,  of course. 

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Posted by Gramp on Wednesday, January 29, 2020 10:54 PM

Not in Wisconsin. She worked hard. 

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Thursday, January 30, 2020 9:38 AM

Back to the topic.  The main reason carloading is down is a slumping economy. For 2019, growth was down to a mediocre  2.3%, from 2.9% in 2018. In the 4th quarter it was only 2.1% likely from the Trump tariffs. 

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Posted by Ulrich on Thursday, January 30, 2020 9:57 AM

charlie hebdo

Back to the topic.  The main reason carloading is down is a slumping economy. For 2019, growth was down to a mediocre  2.3%, from 2.9% in 2018. In the 4th quarter it was only 2.1% likely from the Trump tariffs. 

 

 

Exactly.. transportation is a bellwether..we see it first, and in a few months time it will be revealed to the general public in the evening news. 

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Posted by York1 on Thursday, January 30, 2020 10:51 AM

charlie hebdo
For 2019, growth was down to a mediocre  2.3%, from 2.9% in 2018.

For historical view:

2010:  2.6%

2011:  1.6%

2012:  2.2%

2013:  1.8%

2014:  2.5%

2015:  2.9%

2016:  1.6%

2017:  2.4%

2018:  2.9%

2019:  2.3%

York1 John       

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Thursday, January 30, 2020 12:03 PM

Correction: According to Statista, all your figures are correct, except for 2017. It should be 2.2%.

So in spite of a huge tax cut, the average growth under the current occupant was only 2.47% annually (Obama 2.17% annually after the Bush recession), even though he boasted about how he would make the economy soar to 4% or 5% annual growth. 

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Posted by York1 on Thursday, January 30, 2020 12:55 PM

charlie hebdo
According to Statista, all your figures are correct, except for 2017. It should be 2.2%.

I got the number from that notoriously right-wing rag, The Washington Post.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/20/trump-v-obama-economy-charts/

 

My point is that if the numbers indicate a slumping economy, then the economy has been slumping for the past 11 years.

Is this the bellwether for a recession?  Will we have a recession sometime?  Of course.  We have not had a period of growth years where we did not have a recession to end the growth.  It's a fact of life in our economy.  If not in 2020, then probably 2021.

If you want to point out promises that candidates make that do not prove out, check every candidate for the past 200 years.

York1 John       

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Posted by Ulrich on Thursday, January 30, 2020 1:03 PM

2018 was a banner year for freight.. 2019 much less so.. and so far 2020 is shaping up to be slower still. 

 

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Posted by charlie hebdo on Thursday, January 30, 2020 3:37 PM

York1

 

 
charlie hebdo
According to Statista, all your figures are correct, except for 2017. It should be 2.2%.

 

I got the number from that notoriously right-wing rag, The Washington Post.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/08/20/trump-v-obama-economy-charts/

 

My point is that if the numbers indicate a slumping economy, then the economy has been slumping for the past 11 years.

Is this the bellwether for a recession?  Will we have a recession sometime?  Of course.  We have not had a period of growth years where we did not have a recession to end the growth.  It's a fact of life in our economy.  If not in 2020, then probably 2021.

If you want to point out promises that candidates make that do not prove out, check every candidate for the past 200 years.

 

It's simply evidence of a slump,  getting worse,  not a recession.  I notice you dismiss this fact and the huge deficit that gave us a sugar fix with just another "what about."

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Posted by jsanchez on Thursday, January 30, 2020 4:15 PM

There is definitely a loss of market share to trucks.The almost total focus on operating ratio, has helped drive business away, coupled with even worse customer service offered with precision railroading. It is a sad state of affairs currently. Wall Street will eventually demand growth in revenues and profits from railroads. I think CN and CP are trying to move ahead in that direction.

James Sanchez

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Posted by York1 on Thursday, January 30, 2020 4:27 PM

charlie hebdo
I notice you dismiss this fact and the huge deficit that gave us a sugar fix with just another "what about."

 

I did that?

I thought I showed that if we are heading into a slump with a "mediocre  2.3%"  growth, we've been heading into one for years.  I didn't dismiss it.

I also don't remember dismissing the huge deficit.  In fact, I don't remember mentioning the deficit at all.  I have been very critical of both parties, who have controlled Congress, for the huge deficits.

York1 John       

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Posted by Ed Kyle on Thursday, January 30, 2020 4:38 PM

COAL!!!   Hundreds of coal fired power plants have closed in the U.S. in the last few years, accounting for something like 40% or more of the capacity.  Coal mines are closing.  The number of coal trains are way down, even from the Powder River Basin.  That's a major drag on rails, which built their systems to handle the rivers of coal during recent decades.  That's all over now.  More coal power plant closings are projected over the next few years.  Some railroad lines - and maybe railroads - will shut down in the wake of all of these closings.

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