Why is traffic tonnages down?

[Falcon48]

charlie hebdo

Four threads with the same title by the same poster,  chicagorails.  Trolling time? 

 

  More likely a Boomer (like me) who isn't real proficient on computers (like me).  He submits his post, but it doesn't immediately show up on the website.  So, he figures something went wrong, and posts it again. Same outcome. Eventually, after he reposts several times, the posts start showing up.  Been there, done that.   It's happened to me several times.  When it does, I go back and edit the duplicate posts to read "duplicate post deleted", so I don't look like a complete computer nincompoop (even though I am).  

[MidlandMike]

This whole thread seems to ignore modal shift in transportation.  As mentioned, power plant fuel has shifted from rail (coal) to pipeline (gas).  Trucking tonnage has gone up 3.3% last year:

https://www.trucking.org/article/ATA-Truck-Tonnage-Index-Increased-3.3-Percent-in-2019

Using rail as an economic leading indicator has been replace by using total transportation stats:

https://www.bts.gov/newsroom/research-confirms-transportation-index-leading-indicator

[charlie hebdo]

MidlandMike

This whole thread seems to ignore modal shift in transportation.  As mentioned, power plant fuel has shifted from rail (coal) to pipeline (gas).  Trucking tonnage has gone up 3.3% last year:

https://www.trucking.org/article/ATA-Truck-Tonnage-Index-Increased-3.3-Percent-in-2019

Using rail as an economic leading indicator has been replace by using total transportation stats:

https://www.bts.gov/newsroom/research-confirms-transportation-index-leading-indicator

 

Thank you.  So the economic slump and shifting to pipeline and trucks are a double hit. 

[MJ4562]

Was going to mention shift from coal loads as well.  Railroads will need to retrench and find other services to compete for. 

Anecdotally I saw many businesses stocking up in anticipation of tariff disputes and retaillers using as a selling point to beat the price increase. So not surprised at a traffic slowdown now.  

[MidlandMike]

In fairness I should also mention the modal shift of some crude oil from pipeline to rail, although it is a niche market.

[chicagorails]

Thanks for the good answers. Now that some of the trade deals are halfway done or more our trade should pick up in 2020 hopefully. Used to see 50 trains a day folkston Georgia. Now 30 is a busy day. The more the merrier. Waycross Georgia. Is double that