OK, from a former railroad and heavy truck manufacturer marketing guy, three primary thoughts:
1), Take those numbers with a grain of salt. Nielsen (market research firm) gets scan data from grocers and can reasonably well deduce Kraft's market share of the cheese market. It can also pretty well determine the size of the overall cheese market. I'm not aware of any such data that exists for freight movement.
When I was in marketing for Navistar (truck manufacturing) I sat through a presentation from Transearch (transportation market research company). They told us that the amount of coal moving by truck was increasing greatly. We had access to most truck registration data and we didn't see a corresponding increase in purchases of trucks suited for this work at any manufacturer.
Digging down we found that Transearch was defaulting to truck. They took rail tonnage from a 2% waybill sample. This depended on the waybill providing accurate weight information. It doesn't. They took barge movement tonnage from Corps of Engineers data. Again, this required accurate knowledge of how much was in the barge.
They calculated how much coal was mined in each area, subtracted the rail and barge totals, and assumed the rest moved by truck. Thus, their data showed a litteral explosion of coal movement by truck. This just wasn't happening.
You've always got to question the numbers, understand how they're derived, and try to get them in to context.
2) While I've seen some short haul rail moves work on bulk commodities, the railroads just cannot be competitive on general freight with trucks for shorter hauls. The rails have terminal costs that the trucks don't have and that's the killer. To realistically determine market share you first have to get a realistic definition of the market. As an example, Chicago-Milwaukee, at around 85 miles, is not a potential rail market for general freight. While a whole lot of freight moves on such lanes, it's just not reasonable to expect rail to be competitive in such cases. Such volume and revenue should be excluded from any competitive market definition and calculation of market share. The railroads are not, and cannot be, competitive on such lanes. It can't be fixed so don't worry about it. (Although one person crews would help in numerous specific cases.)
3) Marketing, market research, and market development are glaring weak points with the railroads. They simply do not have the culture to do it. They don't really know what they don't haul and, if they do know, they rarely have a good idea on how to develop the business.
greyhounds3) Marketing, market research, and market development are glaring weak points with the railroads. They simply do not have the culture to do it. They don't really know what they don't haul and, if they do know, they rarely have a good idea on how to develop the business.
And what foces they did have in those areas were axed with the implementation of PSR. I don't know how PSR roads intend to 'grow the business' when they have eliminated the majority of their marketing and sales forces whose resons for existing was to grow the business.
Never too old to have a happy childhood!
BaltACD greyhounds 3) Marketing, market research, and market development are glaring weak points with the railroads. They simply do not have the culture to do it. They don't really know what they don't haul and, if they do know, they rarely have a good idea on how to develop the business. And what foces they did have in those areas were axed with the implementation of PSR. I don't know how PSR roads intend to 'grow the business' when they have eliminated the majority of their marketing and sales forces whose resons for existing was to grow the business.
greyhounds 3) Marketing, market research, and market development are glaring weak points with the railroads. They simply do not have the culture to do it. They don't really know what they don't haul and, if they do know, they rarely have a good idea on how to develop the business.
+1
It's like a siege mentality, trying to hold on, certainly not trying to grow the business.
Warren Buffet is a pretty smart guy. Fairly recently he bought BNSF lock stock and barrel. He must not be as pessimistic as some folks here.
Lithonia Operator Warren Buffet is a pretty smart guy. Fairly recently he bought BNSF lock stock and barrel. He must not be as pessimistic as some folks here.
Exactly. To me, PSR sounds like a return the idea of running freight trains on an efficient schedule, like a passenger train. Do you tell the transit bus or the subway when to pick you up? PSR might be just what the railroads need to figure out a good way to handle Intermodal efficiently? Run the same train the same time and have the "passengers" show up and get on board.
Sheldon
The roads that have seen the light have had to start spending money on things that were delayed or cannibiliazed in order to start growing their business. They may not have abandoned totally all tenets of PSR, just the worst parts of it.
I think the decimation of sales and marketing forces began before PSR.
Jeff
We also don't have real stats on Intermodal ton miles.. How is drayage calculated? There is no discerning data to see real numbers..
ATLANTIC CENTRAL Lithonia Operator Warren Buffet is a pretty smart guy. Fairly recently he bought BNSF lock stock and barrel. He must not be as pessimistic as some folks here. Exactly. To me, PSR sounds like a return the idea of running freight trains on an efficient schedule, like a passenger train.
Exactly. To me, PSR sounds like a return the idea of running freight trains on an efficient schedule, like a passenger train.
ATLANTIC CENTRALDo you tell the transit bus or the subway when to pick you up?
ATLANTIC CENTRALPSR might be just what the railroads need to figure out a good way to handle Intermodal efficiently? Run the same train the same time and have the "passengers" show up and get on board. Sheldon
While it's commonly acknowledged that the freight railroads don't run on a schedule, they do come pretty close. Many originating trains get called at the same time each day, and contract requirements for premium service, like the package services, hew pretty close to the line.
When watching the Deshler railcam, I can pretty much count on the "taco" (taconite ore) train coming through southbound within 20 minutes of 10:30 PM.
I have an early 1960's ETT from NYC - prominently displayed on the back page is "Operation Sunset," which touted the need to make necessary connections so trains moved "on time." The desired departure times for various trains were listed on the illustration. That could certainly return.
It's been the opinion of some that PSR has less to do with precision scheduled railroading than it does with moving money to the bottom line where it can be harvested by activist investors. As has been noted here, many of the people necessary to run an efficient railroad and to grow the business have been let go.
It's also been observed here that once the chief proponent(s) of PSR leave a given railroad, it doesn't take long for management to start rolling back some of the actions taken by the PSR management.
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
tree68 ATLANTIC CENTRAL Lithonia Operator Warren Buffet is a pretty smart guy. Fairly recently he bought BNSF lock stock and barrel. He must not be as pessimistic as some folks here. Exactly. To me, PSR sounds like a return the idea of running freight trains on an efficient schedule, like a passenger train. You'd think so, but you need people to do that. ATLANTIC CENTRAL Do you tell the transit bus or the subway when to pick you up? Actually, the "Dial-a-Ride" program in Phoenix, AZ, does exactly that. My late mother was a regular user. ATLANTIC CENTRAL PSR might be just what the railroads need to figure out a good way to handle Intermodal efficiently? Run the same train the same time and have the "passengers" show up and get on board. Sheldon While it's commonly acknowledged that the freight railroads don't run on a schedule, they do come pretty close. Many originating trains get called at the same time each day, and contract requirements for premium service, like the package services, hew pretty close to the line. When watching the Deshler railcam, I can pretty much count on the "taco" (taconite ore) train coming through southbound within 20 minutes of 10:30 PM. I have an early 1960's ETT from NYC - prominently displayed on the back page is "Operation Sunset," which touted the need to make necessary connections so trains moved "on time." The desired departure times for various trains were listed on the illustration. That could certainly return. It's been the opinion of some that PSR has less to do with precision scheduled railroading than it does with moving money to the bottom line where it can be harvested by activist investors. As has been noted here, many of the people necessary to run an efficient railroad and to grow the business have been let go. It's also been observed here that once the chief proponent(s) of PSR leave a given railroad, it doesn't take long for management to start rolling back some of the actions taken by the PSR management.
You'd think so, but you need people to do that.
ATLANTIC CENTRAL Do you tell the transit bus or the subway when to pick you up?
Actually, the "Dial-a-Ride" program in Phoenix, AZ, does exactly that. My late mother was a regular user.
ATLANTIC CENTRAL PSR might be just what the railroads need to figure out a good way to handle Intermodal efficiently? Run the same train the same time and have the "passengers" show up and get on board. Sheldon
Honestly, I don't know a lot about it, only a little bit I have read.
Moving tons by truck and tons by rail are certainly different things anyhow and the data should be taken for what it is worth -- simply movement.
LTL / Truck / FTL likely lumped together into this reporting. They mention multiple modes, but is that rail - truck (Aka intermodal)? Is it pipeline-rail? Is barge-truck? No clear basis for those figures. What about drayage to a crossdock and reloaded in a truck? Are the tons counted twice? Remember the same material can be trucked several times... a raw material produced into a component added into a device added into a final product. How many tariff shifts can you incur in those moves?
What about a movement out of a broken machine part somewhere then re-trucked back to a plant (we'd call that a service move)? That counts-- flatbed is a large chunk of those 'truck' moves. You'd be very unlikely to rail something out to be repaired and then rail it back unless the feasiblity of it was driven by the cost factor (economics).
I truck product to an RDC and warehouse for a few weeks then I retruck that same product. Two seperate moves, each at 20 tons... so is that 40 tons reported? Yes. Again, the modality of logistics is that trucking is more flexible, quicker and easier. Moves under 100 miles, 250 miles, ect can be redistribution moves, and make up a lot of that data.
Ive used FHA / BTS data several times professionally, it must be refined and evaluated only after put into appropriate context.
My conclusion-- the initial premise of a near-demise of freight rail is flawwed inhereniently. The advantages of rail vs truck vs pipe vs all water vs air are unique and extremely difficult to replace. I've seen entire plants lose rail service and that was the deciding factor in their ultimate closure as the economics changed entirely.
Statistical equivalent of 'activity based accounting' whereas the activtiy is movement by mode.
Rio Grande Valley, CFI,CFII
I have seen dairy feed ingredites being hauled to feed mills in New England by truck from Iowa that used to go by railroad car
blue streak 1 We may need to look at this whole thread in another way. Some coal plants are being mothballed. Are we posibility seeing just a temporary reduction in electricity demand or just a slowing of demand. If either is happening then what are the reasons ? Homes converting to CFLs and LEDs. More home heat pumps. Electricity useage per unit of work has reduced because of the many energy efficiency changes that have occurred ? Commuter rails in the east are still converting to regeneration. Is that useage curve per unit of work starting to flatten out ? The one area that it soon will in my area is in lighting. One city close by is going wholesale replacement of street lighting with LED street lights. My village has to be more financially conservative by replacing street lights that burn out with LEDs. That will take longer but in 10 - 15 years be complete. Now what growth of electricity can we expect? Have no real idea. However once homes finish converting to CFLs and LEDs additional built homes will mean more consumption. Amtrak and all its commuter partners are trying to increase service (Acela-2s for example ) so more consumption there once all the equipment is converted to regeneration. More commuter railss and more light rail. California is pushing electrification of many consumers that may encourage transfer to other states. Texas Central maybe just a blip but ? More manufacturing plans using robots for many functions.
We may need to look at this whole thread in another way. Some coal plants are being mothballed. Are we posibility seeing just a temporary reduction in electricity demand or just a slowing of demand. If either is happening then what are the reasons ? Homes converting to CFLs and LEDs. More home heat pumps. Electricity useage per unit of work has reduced because of the many energy efficiency changes that have occurred ? Commuter rails in the east are still converting to regeneration.
Is that useage curve per unit of work starting to flatten out ? The one area that it soon will in my area is in lighting. One city close by is going wholesale replacement of street lighting with LED street lights. My village has to be more financially conservative by replacing street lights that burn out with LEDs. That will take longer but in 10 - 15 years be complete.
Now what growth of electricity can we expect? Have no real idea. However once homes finish converting to CFLs and LEDs additional built homes will mean more consumption. Amtrak and all its commuter partners are trying to increase service (Acela-2s for example ) so more consumption there once all the equipment is converted to regeneration. More commuter railss and more light rail. California is pushing electrification of many consumers that may encourage transfer to other states. Texas Central maybe just a blip but ? More manufacturing plans using robots for many functions.
Why oh why are railroads reluctant to give a real waybill sample to the STB? As a sometime shareholder what are they hiding from us? Investors are entitled to this info and so should the states when they are investing taxpayer infrastucture dollers in private railroads.
Just to add to what "d-b-d" said about heat pumps.
Our house here in the Richmond VA area has a heat pump system. When we were moving here in 1987 I asked the home inspector just what a heat pump was, and what it was all about since I'd never heard of them, home heating up in New Jersey being either oil, gas, or electric. He explained how the system worked, but also Virginia was about as far north as a heat pump system was practical.
Typically the average winter temperature here doesn't go below 35 degrees, but if it does go down to the teens or below we have to turn on what's called "supplemental heat." That engages an electric "furnace" which heats the house. Works well, but it does drive up the electric bill.
Anyway, the thing is heat pumps aren't a universal energy saving panacea, it all depends on what part of the country you live in.
We're on our second heat pump system, the first one started giving up the ghost 10 years ago. The new one works even better than the first one.
One of the most common shipper complaints these days seems to be the lack of a human interface with the railroad that they can put a face to - e.g. the local agents that railroads used to have back in the day. You would think reinstating such positions, in the form of local agents who also function as sales department officers, would be the best way to grow the carload business.
It's commonly accepted among economists that sales and customer service will be two of the last provinces of human beings in the business world, because they're the hardest to replace with a machine. Railroads would do well to acknowledge that fact and get over their aversion to getting more people involved in their business processes.
The best way to think of a heat pump (or air conditioner) is that it "pumps" heat "uphill". The greater the difference in temperature between where you are getting the heat and where you are trying to dump it, the less efficient things are.
The greater the temperature differential you try to maintain, the harder the system has to work to move each Btu...
-Don (Random stuff, mostly about trains - what else? http://blerfblog.blogspot.com/)
PSR primer:
The "scheduled RR" part of PSR has been in place on the class ones for 15-20 years now. There are fixed train schedules and each car gets a schedule and the RR tries to run the plan and measures operations against the plan. This is not new - tonnage based railroading died circa 2000 (despite what some RR PR groups try to tell us)
The PSR stuff NS and others are doing now consists of:
-trying to find more opportunities to pre-block traffic at origin locations
-mixing traffic types on trains. For example, moving coal and multilevel traffic on merchandise trains.
-trying to get more traffic moving 7 days a week rather than 5 by pushing customers to receive and release traffic 7 days a week
-run longer trains using DPU (not really a PSR thing...
oltmanndThe best way to think of a heat pump (or air conditioner) is that it "pumps" heat "uphill". The greater the difference in temperature between where you are getting the heat and where you are trying to dump it, the less efficient things are. The greater the temperature differential you try to maintain, the harder the system has to work to move each Btu...
The heating/ cooling for our home is a ground source heat pump, a/k/a geothermal. The ground around our 2 wells (ea. 250 ft. deep, for a 3-ton unit) is a nearly constant ~55 deg., so to raise to our normal winter temp of 68 deg. is only a 13 deg. increase. For cooling, it's almost obvious - air temp can be whatever, I have an essentially unlimited supply of 55 deg. ground to cool it. Also, ground - really, groundwater in my case - has a much higher specific heat capacity = holds more heat or cold, something like 500 times as much as an equivalent volume of air. So that's another advantage.
Heating our 3,200 SF home costs about $600 to $800 each season; AC is $50 to $200 depending on the summer (we live in a woods, so the trees shelter us from the sun quite a bit).
Geothermal is bedeviled by wildly inflated cost figures and incompetent installers. Any home system needs a box in the basement to make hot and cold air, regardless of the fuel source - and if it's not a heat pump, then add an AC unit. For any given house, the costs are roughly comparable, including our ground source heat pump. All houses need transfer systems like ducts or baseboards, plus a control system (thermostats, zone dampers, etc.). So the only real cost difference for geothermal is the ground component. For us, our 2 wells cost $7,700 in 2008. Since then all we pay is the electricity to run the heat pump (see above), so it paid for itself about 3 years ago. About a year ago we had to replace the ground loop circulating pump, which was about $1,000. Other than that, no issues with the geothermal system (the zone dampers are another story, but that could happen with any system, not just geo).
There are now also cold-weather air-source heat pumps, which I'm told are designed to work well even in territories such as Maine.
- PDN.
Paul_D_North_Jr There are now also cold-weather air-source heat pumps, which I'm told are designed to work well even in territories such as Maine. - PDN. PDN is correct. This Old House show had one installed in the NE on one of their TV programs.
divebardave Why oh why are railroads reluctant to give a real waybill sample to the STB? As a sometime shareholder what are they hiding from us? Investors are entitled to this info and so should the states when they are investing taxpayer infrastucture dollers in private railroads.
I've never heard that they were reluctant. It's news to me. Why do you think they're relectant?
Often the weight just doesn't really matter. So it's just any number pulled out of the air and who cares. As an example, every UPS load we carried went at 20,000 pounds. No big deal. We didn't charge by trailer/container weight. It was just "Per Vehicle Used." Nobody cared about the weight. But we provided the waybill sample. It showed every UPS load at 20,000 pounds.
Stat lie...We are talking ton miles here in the survey...But what is needed is TEUs or tractor trailer equlivents. Since one railroad car holds 2.5-3.2 Tractor Trailer loads and hauls them 400 miles or more. Also value of containerised cargo is not by weight but by value.
https://www.stb.gov/stb/docs/Waybill/2016%20STB%20Waybill%20Reference%20Guide.pdf
*Railroads are permitted to "mask" contract revenue with a calculated figure. Because these figures may not represent actual revenue, use of this revenue data in any type of comparison may lead to wrong or misleading results.
divebardaveStat lie...We are talking ton miles here in the survey...But what is needed is TEUs or tractor trailer equlivents. Since one railroad car holds 2.5-3.2 Tractor Trailer loads and hauls them 400 miles or more. Also value of containerised cargo is not by weight but by value.
A 5 bottom intermodal car is capable of hauling 20 Twenty foot containers in double stack service. On the highway each container would require a tractor to haul itl
According to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 50% of freight (by weight) moves less than 100 miles while 84% of freight (again by weight) moves less than 500 miles. Thus, most freight isn't ideally suited to rail anyway..and a big chunk of that shorthaul freight is LTL and last mile home delivery. Clearly, delivering six couches to a showroom or a refrigerator to your home is best accomplished using a truck, not a train.. and freight moves like that make up alot of if not most of short hop moves. The 8% figure cited in the original post is therefore meaningless without proper context.
divebardave https://www.stb.gov/stb/docs/Waybill/2016%20STB%20Waybill%20Reference%20Guide.pdf *Railroads are permitted to "mask" contract revenue with a calculated figure. Because these figures may not represent actual revenue, use of this revenue data in any type of comparison may lead to wrong or misleading results.
There is a way to more or less ascertain a railroad's masking factor.
There are a number of companies marketing rail costing models to shippers that incorporate data from the STB waybill sample. Using one of these models; if a shipper can identify their own shipments by searching for the applicable STCC and BEA pairs, you can then calculate the masking factor your carrier has applied to the reported revenue earned on your shipments. You can then assume the same railroad is applying the same masking factor to other shipments in that same commodity group.
I'll also note that on some commodity groups, a railroad might not bother to apply a masking factor. I noticed this a couple times with CN.
I'm still waiting to learn what the 8% really represents.
Lithonia Operator I'm still waiting to learn what the 8% really represents.
I don't trust any of this "data". Seems to hard to accurately collect and sort, even in the information age.
You know, in the world of model trains nobody knows how big that industry is. On the whole planet, only two model train companies are publicly traded, none in the US. So how much business are they doing? Nobody knows........
And why would they tell anyone?
Big companies tell us, and the government what they want to tell them.....
One real growth area in both loose-car and unit-train railroading is chemical products, both raw-material input and product output and export. This is primarily focused on the Gulf Coast, Texas in particulary, with UP the prime beneficiary, followed by BNSF, and KCS a distant third.
How does a cold weather heat pump outside unit work when you get snow drifts? Do you have to venture outside and shovel off the snow?
If GM "killed the electric car", what am I doing standing next to an EV-1, a half a block from the WSOR tracks?
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