We may need to look at this whole thread in another way. Some coal plants are being mothballed. Are we posibility seeing just a temporary reduction in electricity demand or just a slowing of demand. If either is happening then what are the reasons ? Homes converting to CFLs and LEDs. More home heat pumps. Electricity useage per unit of work has reduced because of the many energy efficiency changes that have occurred ? Commuter rails in the east are still converting to regeneration.
Is that useage curve per unit of work starting to flatten out ? The one area that it soon will in my area is in lighting. One city close by is going wholesale replacement of street lighting with LED street lights. My village has to be more financially conservative by replacing street lights that burn out with LEDs. That will take longer but in 10 - 15 years be complete.
Now what growth of electricity can we expect? Have no real idea. However once homes finish converting to CFLs and LEDs additional built homes will mean more consumption. Amtrak and all its commuter partners are trying to increase service (Acela-2s for example ) so more consumption there once all the equipment is converted to regeneration. More commuter railss and more light rail. California is pushing electrification of many consumers that may encourage transfer to other states. Texas Central maybe just a blip but ? More manufacturing plans using robots for many functions.
Thanks. So rail is not only a distant second in weight, a distant third or fourth in value. And finding new niches is something they avoid, even more now with PSR.
The main reason coal usage is down is not temporary decline in power demand. It's because natural gas is much cheaper and older coal-burning plants are being retired.
Enzoamps Those trucks are hauling lots of goods short distances. They haul tons of potatoes to McDonalds restaurants all over the country.
Agree! The comparative statistics for the longer hauls would show a different outcome for truck, rail, pipeline, etc., but I have not been able to find them in part because I am too lazy to look for them.
Rio Grande Valley, CFI,CFII
[quote user="blue streak 1"] Now what growth of electricity can we expect? /quote]
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), as well as other grid operators, have sophisticated models to estimate the future demand for electric energy. They must get it right. Not having electric energy available when people want it is not an option.
Moreover, especially for the construction of a steam electric power station, planners need to project load requirements many years out. It takes a long time to build and license a steam electric power station.
The amount of time to build a wind or solar farm is less than a steam electric station, but it stills plenty of planning to bring them on line at the right time.
PJS1 tree68 Coal for heating and electrical generation may be down, but there's still plenty of traffic on the rails. As Mark Twain said - "Rumors of my demise are greatly exaggerated." Coal moved by rail has been declining, but it is still a significant factor in railroad car loadings. For the week ended December 14th, YTD car loadings of coal totaled 3,867,685, which was down 8.8 percent from 2018. Most projections show that the use of coal to generate electric energy will continue to decline, which means there will be less of it for the rails to carry. But coal is not going to go away overnight. The electric utility industry and the railroad industry have time to adjust their operations for the anticipated changes.
tree68 Coal for heating and electrical generation may be down, but there's still plenty of traffic on the rails. As Mark Twain said - "Rumors of my demise are greatly exaggerated."
As Mark Twain said - "Rumors of my demise are greatly exaggerated."
Thanks to Chris / CopCarSS for my avatar.
I also question what the statistics really show.
Are the trucks' statistics only for long distance? How much of the total truck tonnage is done in cities, delivering goods, and moving products from building to building. My local grocery store has a semi in the back every single morning. This semi was loaded about 40 miles away.
It would be helpful if we could compare railroad tonnage to only long-distance truck shipping.
York1 John
York1 It would be helpful if we could compare railroad tonnage to only long-distance truck shipping.
Thanks! Those data are no reason for optimism for rails' future growth. Most of what they carry is heavy bulk (including coal), lower-value goods in trainload mode.
MidlandMike Here is the modal share by ton-miles. 2017 latest data. TOTAL U.S. ton-miles of freight 5,084,101 Percent Air 14,417 0.28357 Truck 2,023,456 39.79968 Railroads 1,674,784 32.9416 Domestic water transportation 489,000 9.61822 Pipeline 882,444 17.35693 100 https://www.bts.gov/us-ton-miles-freight
Here is the modal share by ton-miles. 2017 latest data.
https://www.bts.gov/us-ton-miles-freight
So, railroads don't trail trucks by very much in the ton-miles department. Isn't this statistic significant? Why isn't this fact getting more traction in this thread?
This is not my area of expertise, for sure. But it would seem like ton-miles might be the best way to compare, regarding whether railroads have a future. In my view, railroads will be around for a very long time.
5 to 8 years ago, people were saying 3D printing and virtual reality are going to change everything by 2019. Today, when I go to Best Buy or other local tech stores, all of the VR stuff is tucked away on some out of the way shelf or you have a sales associate bring it out like in the case of 3D printing. Sure, some people use them but both are niche technologies.
About 15 years ago everyone was talking about peak oil and the need to invest in new coal power and even nuclear power. Today, fracking has created a glut of oil and natural gas in the US.
30 to 40 years ago, Trains Magazine was talking about the impending death of the railroads. Today, railroads are still around and financially healthy enough to spend on new capital projects.
My point is, it is impossible to tell what is going to be happening in the future.
Lithonia Operator MidlandMike Here is the modal share by ton-miles. 2017 latest data. TOTAL U.S. ton-miles of freight 5,084,101 Percent Air 14,417 0.28357 Truck 2,023,456 39.79968 Railroads 1,674,784 32.9416 Domestic water transportation 489,000 9.61822 Pipeline 882,444 17.35693 100 https://www.bts.gov/us-ton-miles-freight So, railroads don't trail trucks by very much in the ton-miles department. Isn't this statistic significant? Why isn't this fact getting more traction in this thread? This is not my area of expertise, for sure. But it would seem like ton-miles might be the best way to compare, regarding whether railroads have a future. In my view, railroads will be around for a very long time.
Because Charlie says we are all too stupid to understand.
So in addtion to your question, I want to know how Piggyback (intermodal) ton miles are measured in these figures?
Who get credit for that rail/mile tonnage? Both?
Sheldon
ATLANTIC CENTRAL Lithonia Operator MidlandMike Here is the modal share by ton-miles. 2017 latest data. TOTAL U.S. ton-miles of freight 5,084,101 Percent Air 14,417 0.28357 Truck 2,023,456 39.79968 Railroads 1,674,784 32.9416 Domestic water transportation 489,000 9.61822 Pipeline 882,444 17.35693 100 https://www.bts.gov/us-ton-miles-freight So, railroads don't trail trucks by very much in the ton-miles department. Isn't this statistic significant? Why isn't this fact getting more traction in this thread? This is not my area of expertise, for sure. But it would seem like ton-miles might be the best way to compare, regarding whether railroads have a future. In my view, railroads will be around for a very long time. Because Charlie says we are all too stupid to understand. So in addtion to your question, I want to know how Piggyback (intermodal) ton miles are measured in these figures? Who get credit for that rail/mile tonnage? Both? Sheldon
I think no such thing. I simply look at the data and draw my conclusions. You can draw yours. I refrained from personal attacks. But you??
"It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future"
Yogi Berra
ATLANTIC CENTRAL Charlie says we are all too stupid to understand.
And where did I say that? Citation, please. Or is that just your own introjection in operation?
Another issue electric or driverless trucks will not help is road congestion, it might not be a big deal in Wyoming or Idaho, but is a huge issue in New Jersey, New York, Eastern PA, and many other parts of the country, L.A. Houston, Atlanta for example. Plus wear and tear on the roads. What might help is more favorable government policies towards rail like what New York City is doing to encorage more direct rail service to industry and distribution centers.( mostly in Brooklyn and Queens) Pennsylvana provides grants for companies to build new spurs, many other states do the same. New business does come on line when I started there were no unit Oil and Ethanol Trains, now this is a huge business for us. There is definitely a lot of oppourtunity to grow car load business as CSX's CEO Foote has pointed out recently and there will still be more intermodal growth in the long term. I still see new spurs coming on line and have seen some existing cutomers expand rail use. No one mentions this, but with PSR customers can now have 7 day a week service if needed, some companies are happily taking advantage of that.
James Sanchez
ATLANTIC CENTRALSo in addtion to your question, I want to know how Piggyback (intermodal) ton miles are measured in these figures? Who get credit for that rail/mile tonnage? Both?
My guess is that for the ton-mile stats, the ton-miles would be split between the two modes by the mileage each covers. I base this on the fact that for the value stats, they have another catagory of multi-modal, since they can't split the value by mode.
To say the railroads carry 8% of the freight measured in weight, what does that mean?
If a truck carries one ton one mile, does it get the same credit as if it carried that ton 1000 miles?
Does the train that carries one ton 3000 miles get the same credit (in the stats) as our truck that carried that same ton only on its final mile to the destination.
I need to know what that 8% means.
It seems to me that a measure of weight without any data as to distance is meaningless.
Can the original poster direct us the source of that stat? Perhaps we could learn something about the methodology.
For now, it seems to me we should be comparing 39% to 32%.
There are gazillions of trucks making very short trips.
I think you have to look at all the metrics. Is carrying 200 tons of coal better than carrying five hundred pounds of electronics? So we also need a measure of total revenue for carrying freight by mode.
I've kind of lost track of what we are trying to measure and why that's important to the discussion, I think we all agree that in the future, railroads will probably carry less, whether measured in $ or ton-miles, but they will still be around.
Forget metrics. I live near the UP West mainline. Many freights. A large number are still coal unit trains and entire trains of alcohol for adding to gasoline. Also trains of covered hoppers, auto rack trains and IM, both containers and trailers. Less of merchandise trains and oil.
If coal continues to decline and hydrocarbon-powered vehicles decline, the numbers of unit coal trains and oil and alcohol trains will also decline. What will replace it?
I find it interesting that according to the stats Mike posted, rail is only ~20% less than trucks. If rail is only carrying 8% of cargo, then trucks are only carrying, what -10-12% of total cargo?
And, as was noted, some significant percentage of that is "local." The bulk hauler taking the milk from the farm to the milk plant is moving a fair amount of weight, but probably less than 30-50 miles around here.
I would opine that most cargo moved in general manifest trains is that not suitable for things like IM. Witness the slab and coil cars seen in trains in Deshler on a regular basis.
Unless manufacturers figure out a way to gain all of their source materials locally, there will be need to move it by rail. Even the Utica Club brewery in Utica, NY gets shipments by rail...
Larry Resident Microferroequinologist (at least at my house) Everyone goes home; Safety begins with you My Opinion. Standard Disclaimers Apply. No Expiration Date Come ride the rails with me! There's one thing about humility - the moment you think you've got it, you've lost it...
charlie hebdo Forget metrics. I live near the UP West mainline. Many freights. A large number are still coal unit trains and entire trains of alcohol for adding to gasoline. Also trains of covered hoppers, auto rack trains and IM, both containers and trailers. Less of merchandise trains and oil. If coal continues to decline and hydrocarbon-powered vehicles decline, the numbers of unit coal trains and oil and alcohol trains will also decline. What will replace it?
Hopefully intermodal, and lots of it. To save fuel, improve highway safety, and help the environment. Sounds like a win,win,win to me?
But some millennial might have to wait a day longer for something..........
Agree completely.
I also believe that passenger service can be profitabler but only with the station restaurant scheme. Plus of course inellligvence in emply hiring and managing, real cooperation from the freight railroads, intelligent use and maintenance of equipment, focused narketing on real travel desires, etc. The selling point for business travelers: Make your business trip a vacation trip. For leasure passengers: Your vacadtion begins when you board the train. But everything has to work for that to happen.
Can it wori under Amtrak? Yet te be proved.
I'm convinced UP could make it work Chiczago - St. Louis - Kansas City with speeds comperable to the NEC - and station restaurants.
And from a railfan perspective, the number of commuter opeations and rapid-transit lines and light-rail lines appears to be increasing each year.
PJS1 The weight, value, and ton-mile statistics are interesting. But they are not the most important numbers. They are found in the financials. Do the railroads make money doing what they do irrespective of what the alternative modes do? This is the most important metric for a stock corporation. The financials for the nation’s freight railroads are solid. They are making money. Whether they continue to do so will depend in part, at least, on whether executive management can scale their operations for the current as well as potential future market demand. They have done so in the past; there is no reason that they cannot do so again and again if need be. As is the case for every business that I know of, change is inevitable. Management can adept, or it will go out of business. Based on what I have read, especially the financials, I am confident that the nation’s freight railroads will continue to play a significant role in moving the nation’s freight.
All you say is important. But unsaid is the degree to which a corporation's allocation of resources reflects a forward-looking vision, aka, investment. Also, examine the revenue stream and what segments it comes from? How many are shrinking and what is the plan to sustain, let alone see growth? A focus on cost cutting and containment is good for the short-term, but not enough for the future. Nor is a focus on bottom line, except for those with a short-term perspective. Corporate graveyards are littered with companies that did that. The stars of today lost money for years.
Charlie, BNSF still is a customer-focused railroad and not a bottom-line-focused railraod. And UP cannot be entirely bottom-line focused and still roll out Big Boy and continiue an active steam program and continue double-tracking the Sunset. If you are talking only about CSX and NS, you might have a point. But if the two Eastern Class I's are weakened sufficiently by not investing in the future, at some point the two Westerners will get together and decide which gets which or how the total Eastern trackage will be divided betwen them. The mergers will then be approved by the STB to insurer a healthy survival of the industry.
And possibly the managements of NS and CSX will read this posting and understand the warning. If, indeed, it is necessary, and others are probably in a better position to know than me or you.
charlie hebdoAnd where did I say that? Citation, please. Or is that just your own introjection in operation?
I feel your pain.
daveklepper Charlie, BNSF still is a customer-focused railroad and not a bottom-line-focused railraod. And UP cannot be entirely bottom-line focused and still roll out Big Boy and continiue an active steam program and continue double-tracking the Sunset. If you are talking only about CSX and NS, you might have a point. But if the two Eastern Class I's are weakened sufficiently by not investing in the future, at some point the two Westerners will get together and decide which gets which or how the total Eastern trackage will be divided betwen them. The mergers will then be approved by the STB to insurer a healthy survival of the industry. And possibly the managements of NS and CSX will read this posting and understand the warning. If, indeed, it is necessary, and others are probably in a better position to know than me or you.
UP on their employee's site has had two installments, I'm expecting more about PSR. The first was "is PSR driving away business?" The second was, "Is PSR leading to more derailments?"
It's like they are trying to convince the work force that PSR is the greatest thing since sliced bread. I wonder though, if they aren't trying to convince themselves that PSR isn't going to hurt the railroad long term.
The rumor going around, heard from local managers no less, is that there are going to be more cuts in the first quarter. That BlackRock wants to run the stock price up. (Maybe with the anticipation of dumping some of their holdings?} It's been said that the plan being called "Unified Plan 2020" may mean that once the first quarter is done, they'll declare success and then they can start focusing on growth.
One can only hope.
Jeff
243129 charlie hebdo And where did I say that? Citation, please. Or is that just your own introjection in operation?
charlie hebdo And where did I say that? Citation, please. Or is that just your own introjection in operation?
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